Every Stock in my Portfolio Right Now

[00:00:00]Welcome back. My name is Arya and I don't waste your time. Sosa rain twit.

[00:00:03]Here is exactly every single stock in my $152,000 portfolio. In today's video, it's been a while, but we're going to be doing a classic classic portfolio update, going through every single one of the holdings, what I'm thinking about with them. Do I think it's overvalued?

[00:00:15]Am I thinking of uh trimming, holding, selling? Am I buying? All that great stuff. Right now, without further ado, I want to actually start at the bottom this time around. Take a look at Apploven. And the reason I'm doing that is because Apploven is currently the top buy in my portfolio, on my watch list, everything. I've done a deep dive on it, which I'll include in the corner, and I'll be sure to include it at the end of the video if you want to watch it after this one. This company is fantastic.

[00:00:37]There's no other way to put it. It has one of the stupidest uh financial profiles of a company that I've ever seen. The combination of growth, which by the way, at the current time, they're growing their revenues at about 66, roughly 70%. I actually have a thesis on why that might accelerate from here, which is crazy to say out loud. Then you look at the operating margins of the company as well. Operating margins at the time of this recording are standing at 77% and then on the earnings call they've talked about how uh essentially they have 20% sort of like fixed expenses of the company and they should have roughly 80% uh operating margins like forever because they have like 10% for you know employees and all those sort of costs and then they have 10% for um cloud computing costs, training their AIs, stuff like that, right? And and so essentially they're basically confirming that they'll have 80% margins for like ever. uh as I mentioned 60% topline and then all of that trades at a bargain and I mean bargain valuation of 37 times trailing earnings. This company at the current time is the cheapest stock in my investable universe. Granted that largely relies on this growth rate on a on a one-year forward basis. It's definitely the cheapest but obviously we can't really project say 60% operating income growth for the next uh 3 years.

[00:01:41]So in reality it's still one of the cheapest alongside like Uber, Adobe, Meta, stuff like that. But it's it's really hard to project out the exact growth for the company over the next three years given that they're already growing so fast. There could be a slowdown in advertising. Maybe they actually even accelerate. So, I don't know. It's a little bit difficult to sort of project those numbers. Point is, it's one of the cheapest things in the investable universe. They have a stupidly wide mode. They're the leader in their category. There's network effects at play. They just opened up uh to all advertisers. So, that's something that's going for them. Stupid amount of optionality with getting into, you know, e-commerce and fintex and insurance and all these different things. maybe even get into cable television advertising at some point. So, I really like the company, founder led, all that great stuff. At this time, I absolutely have no reason to sell, even though I am actually slightly down on the position, but you know, it's a relatively small position at only 4%, 3 and a half% to be specific. So, as I get more incremental cash, I'm looking to kind of add uh to this one. Definitely want to have it to to be north of a 10% position. Moving on along, FICO is the second stock in the portfolio. This one, I also think it's undervalued. I just think AppLoving is a bit of a cleaner story and uh more undervalued. It definitely has more growth, but FICO is also another one of those companies where I I don't understand the fundamentals of the business. Apple 11 has 80% operating margins. FICO on their core business have 88 or 89% operating margins. By the way, this would be a good time to tell you about uh the platform in front of you, which is Fiscal AI. As you can see, I use it for literally all of my stock research needs. And they have, you know, custom metrics in this case that I'm using here that are super helpful.

[00:03:04]There's a link for it in the description if you're curious to try it out. FICO here has 89% segment operating margins on the score side of this. Now they have two sides of the business. They actually sell uh software to you know banks and financial institutions and then they have the famous FICO score which is the main profit generator of the business evident by the fact that you know they have 89% operating margin. It would be impressive if a business had 90% gross margins. There's few very very few companies that have that. Adobee's one of them. Typically they're software companies. Adobe monday.com Reddit stuff like that. Super capital light businesses which essentially have no sort of costs uh gross cost to their business other than like maybe transaction costs. uh maybe like hosting fees, like stuff like that, like very basic fees. But FICO not only has probably 100% gross margins, similar to a Visa or Mastercard, they actually have 90% segment operating margins on top of that, which is just absolutely unheard of. So, I love this business. I'm going to continue to be a shareholder of it. I think on a valuation basis, it trades at pretty attractive prices at the moment.

[00:03:58]Again, if we want to pull in say the PE or even the EVA EBIT, trades at 39 times earnings. It was definitely way too expensive all the way back here, you know, trading at 120 times earnings. And on the growth side, they're now starting to reacelerate as well as mortgage volumes in the United States is uh starting to pick back up. So in the most recent quarter, they grew 39% and then they also are projected to have pretty healthy growth out in the next handful of quarters. So overall, the story with FICO is super clean. I did a video on them as well, which I'll include at the end of this video if you want to watch it after uh regarding the Vantage score scare of Vantage Score is now able to be used in the mortgage industry. It's a head-to-head competitor on mortgages and mortgage originations with VICO. we went through in that video and talked about how it the thesis essentially doesn't make sense. At no point was the moat of FICO the actual score being accurate. Um even though it is really accurate, but that's not the moat. The moat is the the language of it. If and I've given this example maybe 20 times in the past, but I'm going to keep using it. Uh if I tell you that I'll meet you at the coffee shop in 20 minutes, you very well understand what 20 minutes is. But if I tell you I'll meet you at the coffee shop in the length of three YouTube videos. What does that mean? Right? Like a YouTube video could be a minute. A YouTube video could be 20 minutes. A YouTube video could be 2 hours, right?

[00:05:04]You have no idea how long uh the length of three YouTube videos are because it it could be drastically different. So, it's it's a means of a language. There's no standardized method other than FICO to communicate the quality of a loan.

[00:05:16]When somebody tells you this is a 750 FICO, it's been through 40 years of the industry evolving. It is very well established what that 750 FICO should behave like in a credit portfolio. And then at the same time, the bigger issue is that there's no direct translation of a 720 Vantage 100% of the time equals a 750 FICO. The this is called grid parody. And that and that for most credit scores doesn't really exist. A 720 Vantage could be a 750 FICO plus or minus 20 points depending on the person, depending on the factors that are involved. There's no direct 1:1 translation. And so there isn't a 100% grid parody which often means that actually these credit scores need to be rescored in order to be included in a mortgage back security to be sold which should essentially translate to FICO being dominant in their moat and in their position. Moving on along we have Zeta Global. I I recorded with Nick Wealthmatica which you guys if you're familiar with Zeta at all you should know him pretty well. I recorded an hourong interview with him and uh the audio was messed up and uh unfortunately we're going to have to re-record it but it was such a such a great video. I'll have that out probably next week. We went through everything. We went through literally everything. So, I'm going to save majority of the details for a conversation uh that I'll upload next week to give you the the TLDDR pitch on Zeta. It is a smaller based off market cap software company and they're in the software marketing space. The fundamental pitch is that it's a company that's growing pretty healthily. You know, 30% topline. If we look at price of sales because they only recently became profitable, they're trading at roughly three and a half, four times price of sales, which is a bargain for that level of growth. Then on top of that, you might say that, you know, maybe they lack on the moat side. I would absolutely argue that no, they have the fourth largest data cloud within the United States. The three ahead of them is Meta, Google, and Amazon. So, their competitors quote unquote have market caps in the trillions of dollars doing tens of billion dollars of revenue. And then fourth is Zeta, where they have uh I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, data on roughly 500 million consumers globally and like 250 million consumers within the United States, something in that ballpark. And you might have actually experienced uh Zeta Zeta's marketing. It's a more B2B thing.

[00:07:12]It's very enterpriseheavy. I think they have three 400 customers. It's the biggest companies in the world like a Ford, General Motors, American Airlines, like those like, you know, Fortune 500 companies. And you might have experienced it where, you know, if you if you searched up like a blog about the the best trucks, whatever the case is, right? And you and like you scrolled through, you kind of looked at it, maybe you signed up with your email for a newsletter regarding that truck, whatever the case is. Later that day, you might have probably seen an ad on Instagram or on Netflix on these other surfaces regarding truck ads. How is it possible that I looked at this blog over here on on Google and then all of a sudden inside of Instagram I'm seeing an ad regarding a brand new F-150, whatever the case is. And so that's the magic of Zeta is that they own 3,000 premium publishers and newsletters. Again, think like New York Times or the Wall Street Journal. I believe they actually even uh work with Uber's newsletter as well, right? So like they have all these massive massive big uh newsletters and blogging websites. And these are premium blogging websites again like Wall Street Journal or New York Times. like these are very very premium assets to essentially own or I should not own per se but like facilitate the newsletter for them, right? So they own all this stuff on one side and so because of that they're able to track that this email address that signed up for this blog over here was looking at auto insurance or was looking at a brand new truck meets the specific criteria that we need over here on this marketing campaign that we're doing for Ford for their Ford F-150. Hey, we should send them an ad inside of Instagram because we know that, you know, at 10 p.m. at night they scroll Instagram for a little bit. let's send them an ad at that time to see if they would sign up for it. Right? And so it's it's a really powerful business because prior to that you have competitors like Salesforce and whatnot that they do do exactly that. But the thing that they don't have is the 3,000 premium publishers that Zeta has bought and now owns and has all this data, first party data that companies like a Salesforce simply don't have. And so it's a very uh neat structural advantage and data mode that the company has over other competitors. Anyways, enough talking about it. I'm pretty bullish on it. It's a smaller cap company, so a little bit more risky, but I'm going to continue to hold it, and I'm happy with the position so far. And we have the problem child, Adobe. [laughter] So, I'll say this, it could be me being stubborn, and I do acknowledge there could be an opportunity cost here. But I am not going to sell the company until I see the fundamentals deteriorate. That is my line in the sand. That is how I choose to go about my own investing. You behind the camera watching this right now maybe might think differently. Maybe if you don't see momentum in the stock, you might sell out. Maybe if you don't see um the story getting better, that's that's a qualifying factor for you to sell. That's completely fine. That's your investing. My investing style is fundamentals driven. I will not sell out until the fundamentals of Adobe start to deteriorate if they start to deter deteriorate because I'm making a bet on the fact that the fundamentals will not deteriorate. I don't think AI will disrupt Adobe. And this is becoming more and more clear to me as time goes on.

[00:09:50]True professionals need Adobe products to get the granular details of their work done. As great as AI is, and there's like Higsfield and stuff that I have tried out and it's fantastic. There will come a point where even if your work is like 80% 90% done, you will need to drag it into just creative software broadly and get the fine details right because the the AI is not able to get it right. And I'm making a bet on the fact that you know roughly 80% of Adobe customers are enterprise or I should sorry I should say 80% of revenues for Adobe are enterprise. that enterprise segment, that enterprise group will continue to pay for Adobe products and actually will increase their spend with Adobe because they will use AI inside of the Adobe products. They will generate images inside of the Adobe products to have one cohesive workflow that functions altogether. Just the simple uh fact that if you generate something inside of Adobe, you're able to edit all the layers inside of Adobe, that alone is a massive timesaver as opposed to, hey, let me go over here to Gemini or Hicksfield or this and that and whatever. Let me generate an image.

[00:10:47]Great. Now, you can't edit all the different layers. That that product in of itself, I think, will make it so that the enterprises of the world will continue to use generative image capabilities inside of Adobe as opposed to a third party software. Simple as that. Not to mention, you know, the other 20,000 different features that Adobe has, whatever the number is. And if we look at the fundamentals of the business, even though this was partially acquisition driven, even if you strip out the Seamrush acquisition, they still grew exactly 12% in the most recent quarter. So, we have had two quarters in a row of accelerating topline growth. I don't have proof on it, but I would assume this is partially driven by enterprises increasing their token spend inside of the Adobe products. So, I am holding strong. The stock could do whatever. I'm happy. Not happy, but I will be stubborn and I will hold this for the next year. And if the stock is flat over the next year, then so be it.

[00:11:34]I have all the time in the world. As long as the fundamentals don't deteriorate, I will not sell out of this company. That is my line in the sand.

[00:11:40]And if and if we get PayPal, then so be it, you know. But hey, that's not a financial recommendation or anything.

[00:11:45]You feel free to do whatever you like uh with your own money. Uber. I love love love Uber. I wish I had cash to, you know, build up the apploving position because then I would probably allocate the rest of the cash to Uber. This stock has been flat over the past year, actually more than a year. And it baffles me. When I initially bought into the company, I bought it in December of 2024. It quickly raced up to 100 bucks per share. So, it went from like 66 to 100 bucks per share in the span of like, I don't know, 7 months, something like that. And then we've kind of just been, you know, stagnant in this like $70 range. Today the company trades below a 20 times uh forward PE. And as I've covered in previous videos, the amount of optionality that this company has is truly, and I mean truly sickening. Not only do you have, you know, the the core business with rides and eats, and then there's optionality in of that itself.

[00:12:28]For example, they made premium rides, they made reserve rides, they do um priority delivery as like a a standalone product. You do grocery, you do retail.

[00:12:36]Like there there's so many of these different um things within those core two apps. But then on top of that, there's like random adjacencies that they've started to get into. They are starting to kind of push into travel. I believe you can now book rental cars, which in of itself is a massive like hundred billion dollar TAM. If Uber captures any material amount of rental cars, that could be massive. It could be a TAM expander. Rental cars are historically terrible, terrible businesses. If there's anybody to figure out the economics of it, I feel like Uber has a decent chance at doing that.

[00:13:01]Traditional travel, you can literally book actual travel off of Expedia inside of Uber today. Maybe that turns into something, right? You can book restaurants, reservations, partnered up with Open Table, within Uber. There's all these different random things that they're getting into. And no, I'm not saying all of these are going to be massive businesses, but I'm saying what if we get a Uber Eats type business out of the next massive agency that they get into. What if rental cars becomes a huge thing for Uber the to the size of something like uh Uber Eats and then the acquisition that they recently did with Delivery Hero, which is genius in my opinion. You're other than Uber themselves, Delivery Hero is the biggest delivery platform in the world. It's even bigger than Door Dash. And they're buying it only for $15 billion. like they're essentially paying onetime sales, but I believe part of the assets are being sold off to a private equity company. So, you know, roughly onetime sales. So, over overall, I'm very very positive about the business. I think it has a bright future. I think the AVs are not a risk. As I've highlighted time and time again, there's a massive utilization problem with all these autonomous vehicle companies that simply cannot be solved and Uber is the solution to that utilization problem.

[00:13:59]All things considered, very bullish on the company. I've held it for a while now. I held it actually before Bill Aman bought. So, that's fun. I bought it three weeks before Bill Abbin announced on Twitter that he's uh you know he turned it into his biggest position at the time. Anyways, super bullish on the company. Happy to keep holding and happy to keep buying uh if the circumstance presents itself. Amazon can't say the same about this company. This has been my longest holding. I love it. I've only trimmed it once and I trimmed it slightly to put it into AppLin recently actually. And as great as Amazon is, right, don't get me wrong. I think it's arguably the widest remote company in the world if not like maybe ASML is on that level, but like you're not replacing the infrastructure mo of Amazon. I'm starting to get a little worried with uh all of this spending on the cloud. I also don't like the development that like why is there now competitors with the neoclouds? Why do they exist? And calling them competitors is a bit disingenuous because they're sort of frenemies and a lot of cases uh they're striking deals with the big tech companies. Like it's it's a mess. Point is like I I'm getting a bit of cold feet with the developments over with cloud and now the companies are on top of raising debt. Even though the debt isn't too much of an issue, they're starting to you know dilute at accelerated paces.

[00:15:02]I think uh both Meta and Google have announced that. So I don't know, not something where I would sell out of the company entirely. Like definitely not.

[00:15:09]But uh perhaps trimming it down, I'm sitting on decent amount of gains with the company. Trimming it down and putting into something like Apploven or something like Uber where I don't know, it's just a cleaner story in my opinion.

[00:15:19]I could be wrong. I'm just kind of thinking out loud here. I'm probably not going to do anything with the Amazon shares. It is at the end of the day the greatest company. And then something I've kind of thought in the back of my mind is like uh splitting the position in two and putting half into Meta. This is a couple weeks ago before Meta had, you know, like the 30% rally. So, actually would have been a good move.

[00:15:34]But, I don't know. I was just looking at like Meta trading at what was it 17 times, 18 times earnings and thinking to myself, you're getting more growth for a lower valuation and this way I would spread the risk risk quote unquote in my portfolio across two big tech companies as opposed to one big tech company.

[00:15:49]Probably should have done it to be honest with you, but I think it's a bit late now. Um, but yeah, I'm getting a bit of cold feet and maybe it's just frustration with the company and like the stock price not moving in a while.

[00:15:57]I'm probably being a bit emotional with uh all these different thoughts. So, the reality is I think it's best to just do nothing. And you know, the top line's accelerating, the fundamentals are becoming better. There's a serious return on investment with AI now. And you know, that was evidenced to us last quarter. So, probably best to kind of do nothing and just hold on to the business, and that's probably what I'm going to end up doing. And the last one, the big gainer, ASML. This one now represents roughly 30% of my portfolio.

[00:16:20]I actually recorded two videos back toback. The next video coming out on the channel will be a little bit more talking about this new revelation that I've had uh with accelerating top lines as like one of the things that are so underrated and actually cost investors a lot of mistakes with potentially trimming stocks. Case in point, I've covered it in the past as well with like Broadcom. Like you could have sold Broadcom at 70 times earnings a couple years back. Yeah. Right here. So in June of 2024 or you know even the couple months leading uh up to that you could have sold it at roughly 60 70 times earnings citing that oh look the revenue growth is I don't know slow 8% 13% whatever actually if we look at this on a quarterly view I think uh paints a better picture. Yeah right here. So in the in the months leading up to this you would have seen like pretty lackluster growth whatever you had one quarter that was like uh pretty solid whatever the case is right but you could have sold it and you could have cited a expensive multiple as a reason why you're selling it. Now, that would have been the wrong move because not only has the valuation essentially stayed flat over the ensuing couple of years, but the growth has been stellar in the ensuing couple of years as well. Here, at this point, you would have sold the company at $150 per share after it was up uh must have been, I don't know, 300% something like that.

[00:17:23]Since that point, the company has gone up another 300% and the valuation has stayed the same. And this has all been a result of fundamental growth for the company. ASML, I think, sits in a very similar spot today. It's up about 200% since the lows. looks expensive on a trailing basis, but if you pay attention to the forward growth of the company as the management team has confirmed with us in the most recent quarter that they will be accelerating their capacity growth. They're going to increase it by 30% this year, 30% the year after that, and potentially another 30% the year after that in 2028. It would be stupid to sell the company at this point in my personal opinion. I have trimmed it ever so slightly. I trimmed uh two shares all the way back in start of the year. I put it into FICO, which you know, clearly was a mistake. I'm still holding on to more than 90% of my original position. I essentially have barely trimmed it, right? And I'm going to continue to hold on to this position even though I kind of dabbled with the idea of trimming a little bit. Whatever the case is, the most recent quarter confirmed to me that this company is going to accelerate their top line and their fundamentals over the next handful of quarters. At least I choose to believe that based off the word of the management team, which have historically sandbagged and been very, very conservative with their projections. They came out in pure confidence and straight up said, "This is what we're going to do over the next handful of years." And I actually suspect that they might even raise that guidance in the next couple years. So I think it would be stupid to sell out of the company or even trim it at these prices. It might arguably even be undervalued. With that being said, thank you very much for watching this video all the way through. I have three videos up on screen for you. This one is the app and deep dive that I talked about.

[00:18:49]This one is the FICO video where we kind of discuss the Vantage core threat quote unquote and kind of debunk that. And then this one right here is the ASML earnings video that we did that we comprehensively analyzed the entire earnings report and everything to do with that. Thank you very much for watching and have a great