While the video correctly identifies the systemic fragility of our global infrastructure, its heavy reliance on doomsday rhetoric risks turning a serious ecological crisis into mere sensationalist content. It serves as a grim reminder that we are intellectually and physically unprepared for the non-linear disruptions of a Super El Niño.
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This Is Going To Be The Worst Summer Ever In Human HistoryAdded:
I genuinely believe we're in the final runup. I I want everyone to understand this, okay? I It's I'm not typically in the business of making immediate predictions because to guess at the future is to make a fool of yourself inevitably. And I'm aware of that. I really think that we're in like the we're in like the final runup. I really do.
Wouldn't it be like saying it's not going to happen? Wouldn't that be jinxing it to what exactly? The end of the artifice, I guess. Um, we're we're we're running up on a number of crises that we're fundamentally incapable of addressing. So, like immediate thoughts, right? Like what's coming up next?
What's like the next big one? All right.
Obviously, it's oil. We are right now racing towards a depletion of our available petroleum reserves globally, not just in America. severe enough that it runs up against the operational minimum where you no longer have enough to produce to to reduce friction in the system. You run up against the operational minimum. And it's it's kind of like how in order for everyone to be able to have drinking water. You can't just produce available drinking water at the exact rate people needs it. You need reserves. You need there to be water towers. You need reservoirs. you need um like billions and billions of gallons of water because sometimes an area will need some and another area won't or there will be a temporary drought uh but it's fine because you have the reservoirs filled up. You need something to reduce the friction of immediate availability or unavailability. We're about to in a couple of months run up against that limit. Um with regards to global petroleum reserves, we're also like very rapidly running out of jet fuel. like the EU has been coasting on fumes now for a couple of weeks and they're getting pretty close to just being out. They're going to start using US fuel, which is worse. Um, how quickly we can even get it over there is is another matter for question. I haven't seen any analysis of the logistics of how quickly we can provide our already limited supply of US jet fuel over to the EU to supplement their essentially depleted reserves of it.
We have uh uh uh uh climate catastrophes uh on the way. We're supposed to be in for a super El Nino this year. You hear about that? A super El Nino. We've talked about it on stream a couple of times, but every indication that I have seen, every conversation, every article um for 2026, the El Nino, it's it's meant to be um very bad. I've seen some I've seen some weather maps that have a lot of red in them. I'm not a meteorologist. I'm not a climate expert. Uh but it's looking like it might be quite bad this year. Many forecasts say the temperature could increase by an unprecedented 3° C. Even the 1877 El Nino, which was a mass death event, by the best estimates didn't have that magnitude. A number of the models show a real chance for a record- setting El Nino event, said Zeke Housefather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth. It's still too early to know for sure. El Nino events typically peak in strength late in a calendar year then cause warmer global temps on land in the months that follow. Many scientists predict 2027 will be the warmest year on record.
Look up am collapsing. We've talked about this. Yeah, the um that like mega current that keeps Europe cool. I thought it kept it warm. kept it warm.
Sorry. Sorry. I was thinking in my head cool rather than cold. Yeah. Kept keeps it warm. Um Yeah. So that would be bad.
If we do have such a bad El Nino, it would compound a bunch of other factors that's going to hit agriculture hard. Uh including um the logistical inability to transport large amounts of grain due to an unavailability of petroleum byproducts, fuel, and so on. A lack of fertilizer with which to grow the food, which means we'll have general shortages. And then you have this last one this big killed 50 million people.
3 to 4% of the entire global population.
Scale that to today you're looking at 250 million people equivalent. Well, thankfully we have more advanced fertilizers now. Oh wait, the 1877 super El Nino triggered simultaneous droughts across India, China, Brazil, and East Africa. Crops failed on four continents at the same time. The famine lasted three years.
Researchers have called it arguably the worst environmental disaster ever to befall humanity so far. That's cool.
Worth noting, of course, that the global temp on average is significantly higher than it was back in 1877, which is the reason why these projected models for 1877 look a lot better than what 2026 might look like. Yes, Dustpole 2 is going to go crazy.
Yes.
Dust storms in the Dakotas.
Cool.
Are we going to turn to Mars? Sorry, I was answering a question. The question that I was answering when I say like we're in the runup, we're in the leadup, we're in the final moments is that we're running up against a bunch of catastrophic um events that both globally and nationally we are unable to address and then the system will just break. We haven't really had a system break in America in a really really long time. The last one that people really remember was Katrina. Um Katrina is an example of like a system break where there's a bunch of uh you have a a clash of institutional failures and systematic um negligence with sort of an environmental extremity or something like that. CO no not really co actually CO was responded to globally and nationally relatively rationally relatively. Now, I'm not uh I'm not going to s I'm not going to pretend we handled it perfectly, but by and large, the economy was able to absorb the effects of COVID pretty well, and America rebounded relatively quickly, too. You know, like nationally, we did a decent job. Thank you, Biden. Um, is the depression the shining example of a system break? Yeah, it's a break.
Sure.
Lowest consumer sentiment ever. lowest consumer sentiment ever so far.
But yeah, it's the lowest ever. It's going to keep getting lower, too.
Does this mean it's going to be warmer this summer? Yeah. It could also mean like mass death and famine. The year's 2027, not this year. No, no, no. The super El Nino would be this year, but it's its effects would wrap around into 2027, and that would be when the big famine kicks in. um because of planting cycles or whatever type [ __ ] You know, trees absorb greenhouse gases.
I've heard about that. I've heard about that. The signs are hard to ignore.
According to uh information from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, that's a mouthful, and I didn't stumble over myself for once. There's an 82% probability that the phenomenon will form between May and July 2026 and a 96% chance it will persist through the winter of 2026 to 27.
Don't think about it too much, chat. I guess the the the the point that I'm not really getting at because I'm kind of just dumbfounded by how bad things are right now for all of us and for the future of human civilization um is that uh we don't really have an example in the modern world of a true system break.
Even in the during the Great Depression, I'm trying to think of like how to put this. When the Great Depression happened, we still lived in a world where a significant number of people, even people who lived in cities, engaged in a level of self-sufficiency in order to survive. I guess what I'm trying to think of is like 200 years ago for a peasant to not starve they would have to farm food and go out and hunt rabbits or whatever and if they couldn't do those things eventually they would just starve. There weren't any systems in place to protect them. like maybe there was a granary they could appeal to, but by and large an individual's ability to survive was largely determined by their ability to work around um the circumstances of their environment, the availability of resources. Nowadays, we expect a lot of things, right? Like we expect a certain baseline of uh comfort, shelter, food availability. We have grocery stores.
They didn't used to have grocery stores, folks. We have grocery stores now. We expect more, which is good cuz civilization is good. Um, I don't really think we've ever seen a uh system break as significant as what this could potentially be happening in a world where billions of humans have grown accustomed to a certain standard of living that can no longer be um sustained. I guess what I'm trying to say is like when the Great Depression happened, a lot of people did die, a lot of people did starve, but I think that by and large the world back then was more accommodating of those kinds of crises. The world back then and the people who lived in that world were both more ready for and more capable of surviving gigantic whiplashes in the availability of resources and um and services. And now I just don't know if that's the case. I just don't know.
people were closer to death back then and they lived their lives that way. But right now, like I don't know. It just kind of feels like like if there was just a break in the availability of water, I feel like everyone would ignore it and pretend it wasn't happening. And then one day every resident of Southern California would wake up and realize there was just no drinking water and it was now just like a 48 hour clock until one of the biggest math mass death events in history happened. You know what I mean? like the there's much less systemic resiliency once the initial systems break. Isn't that happening? I mean, it I think there are still people alive in Los Angeles.
Regrettably, it could happen.
So, what you're saying is people need to get into survivalism. No, your individual um survival skills will be irrelevant in a world like that. If you live in the American Southwest and the water runs out, there's no amount of personal skill on your end that will prevent you from dying along with everyone there. Um, it's not a it's not a it's not a skill issue.
The skill is to work on sociability.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But that also won't work if you just run out of water in the whole area.
You know what I mean?
My personal survival skills include leaving at risk areas beforehand by reading warning signs. Yeah, that's a big one.
The NOAA is just the lowest projected rise. Oh. Oh, you're you're saying that the data that we were looking at with regard to the likelihood of a super El Nino was based on the NOAA's assessment, which is the most optimistic of the forecasts listed here.
Like these two other projections are more pessimistic.
Do they not have rivers in the Southwest, buddy?
Not enough.
The N OA is pronounced Noah. Don't tell me how to live my life.
Is this for 2026 or 2027?
It's for 2026, but the effects of it would roll over into 2027.
So, in 202 uh 2028, are we in the clear?
Yes.
And when will those effects end? They they wouldn't. It's the line's still going up, man.
It's just the new world you have to live in.
Incidentally, 2026 is also the year that we hit a a particular milestone. We're hitting 1.5C this year over pre-industrial temperatures. If you remember, like all that hubbub when you were younger, like we must avoid the disastrous 1.5C uh mark. That's now already so cool. Yeah, we also hit 100% US debt to GDP ratio.
Yeah, I feel like I'm being very tedious today.
Not a doomer question. Can we actually fix this? No, of course not. Maybe in the long run, but like we're we're hitting the wall no matter what.
Trump basically guaranteed we hit the wall like as hard as possible. Why not?
Because it's it's literally too late.
What? We're talking about like a climate anomaly that's estimated to take place within like it's ramping up now. It's already happening. It's not this is it's happening now. So, um no, Trump Trump basically guaranteed that we hit the wall as like quickly and painfully as possible. So, that's not that's not great. I don't really know what the plan is.
I studied environmental studies in college and realized none of the warnings would be heated and wound up having a depressive crisis and dropped out over it. Yeah, it's not great.
Do you planned your life around the apocalypse? You mean like am I making plans for all this? Um, yes.
I'm not letting you know where I'm where I'm hiding my gold bars.
Any advice? don't live in the American Southwest.
You seen these charts saying world oil inventories are going to plummet below operational floor levels by September.
Oh, this was the graph I was trying to find earlier. Yeah.
To illustrate my point. Drier conditions around India, Southeast Asia, Central America, and Northern Brazil, and wetter conditions in the US, Southern Brazil, or Peru. Or in other words, there's going to be like a mega typhoon hitting New York City every 5 days, but also we'll lose uh like a combined 3.8 trillion calories of food production every day in the entirety of Eurasia.
Hopefully by stream tomorrow, I find funnier ways to go over all this.
Is this channel reputable?
Less than 100,000 subscribers.
Beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a massive shift is currently underway.
Meteorologists monitoring the latest supercomput models for late 2026 are observing a significant spike in sea surface temperatures. The data points towards the development of a powerful climate phenomenon known as a super El Nino, an event that will severely alter atmospheric circulation and global precipitation patterns through 2026 and into 2027.
To understand the mechanics of a super El Nino and why it impacts weather globally, we first have to understand what El Nino is.
>> I feel bad for content stealing unless it's news.
First, I want to talk about something that's been getting a lot of buzz. Maybe you've seen it on your social media feeds. A potentially very strong, or as some people call it, super El Nino developing. And this could have a huge impact on our weather, especially as we get toward this coming winter, which I know is still a little ways away, but you might like what it does to our winter. As a reminder, El Nino is a big blob of warmer than normal weather near the equator way down here in the Eastern Pacific. And even though it's 3,000 miles away from Chicago, it does affect our weather, especially in the winter when it shoves the polar jetream farther north that locks arctic air away from us and generally keeps us a lot warmer and >> oh, did you see the doomsday glacier news, too? No, I didn't. Feel free to link it.
>> Less snowy during the wintertime season.
This is kind of a technical peak behind the curtains, but stay with me. It's worth it. Right now, no El Nino yet, but over the coming months, this is June, July, August, July, August, September, and into the coming winter. This is a rare near guarantee a 96% of El Nino probably developing across our area.
Now, not only is this El Nino developing, but I mentioned it's going to be super strong. This is a graph of how far water temperatures should be or already are above normal down in that region of the Pacific. Here we are now.
And these are all different models saying how warm that water is going to get. 2° 2 and 1/2° C above normal. This could be the strongest El Nino ever recorded. We don't have, of course, anything to compare historically strong El Nino to, but the past three very strong El Nino when we hit about that 2° C threshold, here's what it meant for our winter. Average wintertime temperatures are 27 28 degrees in Chicago for December, January, February.
Look how far above we were. The past three very strong Elnos have meant temperatures about four degrees above normal all winter, which is a huge impact to those really bitterly cold days. Not only that, but it also means a lot less snowfall than usual. Typically, just during that 3-month meteorological winter, we get 29 in of snow in the city. But look at this. We averaged less than half of our typical snowfall. So, if we do see this El Nino develop, and it does get historically strong. You could really like the coming winter.
>> Yeah, at this point, uh, Trump would think El Nino is an illegal immigrant, it is going to be extremely funny when this becomes more and more, uh, sort of federally newsworthy to see Trump consistently refer to El Nino as a person. It will be really funny to watch that. And no, no reporter will call him on that, of course. Obviously, this El Nino guy, the doomsday glaciers giant ice shelf is about to break away.
Oh, I didn't see this. Antarctica's most threatened glacier is about to be further destabilized as the floating ice shelf in front of uh Thuaited Glacier is set to break away. Its final demise could happen suddenly. And to avoid being caught in the hop, we've already prepared an obituary press release, says Rob Ler at the British Anarctic Survey.
Is about the size of Britain. Weights.
It's the not like Greek. Okay. Weights is about the size of Britain, but it's shrinking rapidly and is already responsible for 4% of all global sea rise. Its collapse is expected to set off a domino effect in the entire Western Arctic ice sheet, ultimately resulting in a calamitous sea rise level of 3.3 m and changing the coastline of the entire planet. Nah, sure. That's fine. That would be like over a long time, though, I assume.
The ice shelf's demise also signaled by a dramatic speed up in its flow rate.
It's tripled from January 2020 to January 2026 to just over 2,000 meters per year, which is nuts, said Wild. And in the past 5 months, the flow has accelerated further. It's essentially in freef fall now. Okay.
Ice shelves are only really stable when it's quite cold. Thank you, Ally.
How do I get my lib parents to believe this is real? Your lib parents don't believe in climate change.
Right now, across the Pacific Ocean, something is happening that could change the world's weather. It's called El Nino, and it's a global weather phenomenon that can reshape the weather, food, and temperatures worldwide.
Depending on where you are, it can mean devastating floods, extreme droughts, intense heat waves, or raging wildfires.
And this year, it's looking increasingly likely it's going to be strong. Really strong. I'm Simon King, a lead weather presenter and meteorologist at the BBC.
So, let me explain how it works and what it could mean for us.
>> You're all you. Everyone everyone faulted me for being too negative, but you know, I'm I'm just trying to get you guys ready. I'm sorry. I'm I'm afraid that it's not really a bit if I had anything positive to say, I'd say it.
>> El Nino is a natural climate pattern where the tropical Pacific Ocean warms up well above normal levels. Think of the Pacific like a radiator. When it's turned on, the heat transfers into the atmosphere, boosting the global average temperature. You might have also heard of Laninia, and that's the cooler than average phase. We were just in that phase last winter, but now the tropical Pacific is warming up very quickly and the latest data suggests we're already close to or even past the threshold for El Nino to begin. It can bring chaos to weather.
>> Do you have any more specific suggestions than avoid the southwest?
>> I I don't know. I don't know. It depends on where you live. You should what what you need to if you're if we're being serious about this, okay? What you need to do is you need to look up what this and climate change in general are expected to do to your community.
Where does your town get its water from?
How resilient are those systems? Are you in a place where increased rainfall would be, you know, um, irritating but would otherwise just replenish existing stores of water? Are you in a place that would suffer tremendously from drought?
You know, how how are you going to be affected? And you need to imagine the worst case scenario, right? Like we need to talk about resiliency here. It's not just are you aware of what's going to happen. It's realistically if all of these things went bad at once, what would that do to your life? And what can you do to um build the largest gap possible between yourself and death? Do you have uh redundancies in the availability of your resources? Do you have people you can rely on? You know, you don't want to be the the the only guy in the neighborhood who has no friends.
It is um quite bad. Were the preppers right even by accident? No. They've taken the worst possible approach. No amount of prepping can undo these uh catastrophic systemic failures. And also, their bunkers are like [ __ ] loot drops for the rest of us. Um, it's it's not really going to help them.
I mean, like, my advice is avoid the Southwest at all costs. Just comes off as callous to people that live there and can't move away to anywhere.
Deal with it. Your feelings are in this moment irrelevant to me. I'm sorry. It's just true. Comes across as callous. It's true. I've been telling my parents to move out from there for ages. It's just [ __ ] true. I don't know. Like, oh, it comes across as callous for people who can't move way to I don't know. Like, a meteor is going to hit you. Oh, well, what what happens to the people who can't move out from under its path? The collision, the the the big meteor impact site. I don't know. You die. I get I don't know. Like, what do you want me to say? I'm not here to provide you a satisfying narrative. I'm here to tell you what I think is gonna happen. I'm not, you know, I'm not onesient, of course, but no, you shouldn't live in the Southwest. You just shouldn't you shouldn't live in the Southwest.
I'm not trying to be mean or whatever.
Just like Jesus, you know what? What happens if if it gets bad down there?
Also, like you really need to reframe what you think is possible because you just said who can't move away.
Can't you like a better way of thinking about it would be if the alternative was literally dying?
Couldn't you would it just suck?
Listen, I'll tell you this much, okay?
If you are going to flee the Southwest or any other area that's going to be beset by catastrophic climate circumstances, you do not want to be like late to the party. You know what I mean?
You want to be one of those [ __ ] who packs up 6 months early. You do not want to be one of those people who's like, "Ah, it's not that bad." You You don't want to be like the last Jew to find out they should have been packing to leave Germany, you know, six months ago.
really want to preempt others on that one. You want to you want to be ahead of the news.
I'm 17. No, I can't move out. I'm I'm sorry.
You live in the southwest. I'm I mean, you can try to make a pitch to your parents if you want. I'm just saying like at there there will be conversations had about the need to move and at one point in time today or in the near future the conversations will have the tone of no we can't move this is where we have a job and then six months afterwards the conversations will be who cares if there's a job there they have water and you want to make the decision to leave before you reach that second part.
You know what I mean? You really want to be the guy who left early and was and and then is like, "Well, well, let's try to make things work here rather than being part of the horde of like 30 million climate refugees fleeing an area that literally doesn't have drinking water." Um, yeah, you want to be the first wave of refugees. They tend to they get it better.
Anyway, what do I know? What do I know?
I I I don't know the future. I don't know what's going to happen.
You're overreacting a bit. Suggesting people move right now is KIND OF STUPID.
AH, IT'S always it's always overreacting. Unfortunately, when it comes to something as catastrophic as this upcoming super El Nino and everything following it, immediate alarmism is actually the only rational response. Like there will never be a point where it is now rational to freak the [ __ ] out, but also you're not too late. Does that make sense? This is the it takes so long to build up and the effects are so wide reaching that you're never going to have this like okay now it is sensible for us to pivot towards panic or whatever like it will be too early until it's too late. There's no overlap where it's like ah now we should react or whatever. It's sensible now you know.
But I'm not, it's not financial advice.
You can do what you want. You can do what you want.
All I'm saying is that, and obviously I'm saying this with the I'm going to assume a greater wealth of resources on hand available to me than many people who are watching from chat.
But uh it is something I'm factoring into my future plans. Okay, that's all I'm saying. All right.
patterns all over the world and it's expected to keep building, peaking in strength later this year. So, how strong could it get? Well, forecasters around the world use different models to predict El Nino, and right now they're all pointing in the same direction. The Pacific is warming fast. US forecasters say the El Nino will officially form within the next month and by late autumn or early winter there's a two in three chance it will become strong or even very strong. Australian forecasters have similar predictions and European forecasters say that around half of their models show it could be one of the strongest on record. This has prompted some to call this a super mega or even Godzilla El Nino later this year. You'd have to go back over a decade to find a very strong El Nino in modern history.
In 2015, 2016, and 1997, 1998 temperatures >> not arguing, but could you please go into why the Southwest specifically will be [ __ ] water-wise in your perspective? Cuz there's like 30 million people who live there and not 30 million people worth of water.
It's a desert.
They don't. It's just it's just the w like eventually the the reservoirs will run drier and drier and drier and then there won't be any and then one day everyone will just have no water and then they'll be killing each other in the streets. Like do you think the local state or federal government right now in Los Angeles or [ __ ] Phoenix or whatever will be capable of responding to a situation as bad as you all need to move? I need you to understand these are not catastrophes that can be prevented only planned around. The events that are going to take place are already cemented. Whatever El Nino we're going to get this year or droughts next year they're already happening in the future.
There's no stopping it. There is nothing the government can do to change the basic level of the the the availability and allocation of drinking water available to cities like Phoenix or Los Angeles. They can't like build a reservoir or aqueduct or redirect sufficient amounts of water if they run out. If it looks like if you look at the numbers and the availability of resources, if you look at it and you realize, holy [ __ ] and this is and this can happen. This isn't paranoia. This can happen. You will look at the numbers and you will say, "Oh, it's actually over. I am looking at the numbers in Los Angeles. We'll say Los Angeles County.
I'm looking at the availability of water now and how it's going to go in the future and there is literally nothing that can be done. There's no button you can press. There's no policy you can implement. There is nothing that can be done. And when that happens, the only possible uh the only thing you could do, the only possible solution would be mass exodus from the areas that don't have water.
There's no magical pipeline that can route water from anywhere in the world to your home in Burbank. Like, if there isn't water, there isn't water. What do you think it would look like for 20 million people to flee as climate refugees from Los Angeles? Like, I just want you to imagine logistically what it would look like if the government was like, "Oh, we're just going to need to do evacuations."
Like, really think about that. Really truly think about what that would look like.
What do you think? Everyone's going to get like a bus or a train. Everyone's going to get shuttled out.
Tens of millions of people.
Current Lake me level. I know. I just went there a couple of days ago.
You know what I saw?
It was uh I got to say it was not great. I went out to Hoover Dam.
I went out to Hoover Dam just a couple of uh just a couple of days ago and man on the reservoir side of the dam it was just I mean we're talking like 50 feet of exposed lake bed just pale white this is what I saw running all up the reservoir area.
If they ever do have to make the call on pulling people out of the southwest, there is no plan. There is no plan and there are no means by which it could be done. And if you're one of the people who finds out the same time as 30 million other people that you have to leave, I genuinely think it would be optimistic to give you a coin flip on surviving that. Especially if you're not young and strong.
So just don't make the decision last minute. That's all I'm saying.
In Chernobyl, the government helped people out. It was still brutal. Yeah, we just we don't really have a a historical example of that. I don't know. Maybe like the partitioning of India and Pakistan, the the big exodus there. I don't really we don't really have like a there's just ne I don't we don't really have like historical examples I guess of this. I don't know.
Scientists tell NOLA government to prepare for depopulation now.
Nola point of no return New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level study fines.
Neat.
Well, anyway, I gotta go.
Listen, to to make up for the we'll say faltering tone of this overall stream, uh if I am able to get back earlier tonight, maybe we could play some like RE9 or whatever, but I got some [ __ ] to do. I'll be back tomorrow. Good talk, everyone. Good talk. Just listen. Please don't belleaguer me from the Reddit. Oh, he's being negative. I don't know what to tell you guys. I'm sorry. I ju I don't I just I don't want to like lie.
You know how [ __ ] up that would feel from my perspective when I see these headlines and I'm like go to stream.
Okay. I have to like pitch them positive. Yeah. There's no positive spin on some of this [ __ ] man. Okay.
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