West Bengal Exit Polls: Predict Close Contest As High Voter Turnout Keeps TMC And BJP On Edge

Added: 2026-04-30

[00:00:00]Samit Pal is a columnist and senior journalist. We have Sumajjit Baki, senior journalist. Arjit Jarrett is a senior journalist. Arti beginning with you. Uh you have been looking at all these numbers of exit polls. We are f focusing on the big suspense state which is the state of West Bengal where there is lot of interest at the same time.

[00:00:20]What are the these numbers that make you more interested or perhaps curious?

[00:00:26]Um you know see exit polls have gone wrong so often that actually my faith in exit polls is quite shattered and I think since yesterday the you know exit polls for the 21 polls and the 24 polls have been circulating and showing how wrong they went in Bengal but what I will say this time is that I don't believe these exit poll numbers simply because I feel that such a massive Massive turnout should mean a sweep for one side or the other either pro-inccumbancy or anti-incumbency.

[00:01:04]Usually high turnouts mean people have come out to express an opinion. Now whether the opinion is in favor of Wampa or or in favor of the BJP I don't know that only on the 4th of May but this kind of close contest that the exit polls are suggesting somehow I feel it's not a close contest. just going to be a one-sided victory by whichever side wins.

[00:01:29]>> Okay, Samit Pal, what's your assessment particularly after the second phase also recording bumper voting?

[00:01:39]Yeah, I agree with that Arti that you know when there is a huge uh you know polling numbers that we're getting it will go either way. It cannot be so split verdict that we are getting as of now and as we know that in uh in case of West Bengal we have seen that uh the opposition has never crossed 100 seat mark in any elections whereas whoever have come to power have come to power with a huge margin uh and that is going to happen even now what I believe two factors that are very important that as the first phase was on uh first phase polling was basically a and uh you know kind of referendum on as that is what I feel second phase yes it was mostly in urban area in Kolkata and you know surrounding areas where the elections are taking place and there was sense of anti-inccumbenty and in the whole election campaign the anti-inccumbenty factor that worked only in last 7 to 10 days of you know of second phase of polling with what we had seen yesterday and women voters that's that's another important factor I still believe that the women in rural Bengal still with trolapuna scheme against mtab banj's locar and you know other benefits that the woman are getting in west Bengal so these are very very important factors uh now we'll have to see which way it goes but I still believe that to for to get to these numbers BJP will have to breach the south Bengal which is the you know stronghold hold of trul congress especially two uh 24 paraganas where trul congress you know got majority of seats so picking up two three seats from here and there cannot take them to this number so we'll have to wait and see for you know fourth of May and see what comes out in reality >> baki both sides dismissing this number both sides saying that this is underestimation of their actual seed projection what they feel what their assessment is >> you know I think the previous speakers Miss Jarat and Mr. Paul has actually covered it. I I do not have much to say as you know you your your correspondent has also said that that there are two opinions and really we have to wait for another 100 hours and I think the point has been well covered in the last 15 20 minutes so I have nothing much to add with that >> come in and if you look at the numbers and let's just look at the numbers in the second phase and uh you know all the other panelists have spoken about the two sides and what they are saying and what clearly the exit poll or seem to suggest the mean seem to be that it's going to be a hung assembly. It's 144 for both sides. If you take the mean of all the exit polls, but to look at Subjit Baki in the second phase, the 142 seats that have gone to vote and one really looks at the uh the margin of victory and the margin of victory 72 76 seats the margin of victory has been over 25,000 and 72 have gone to the TMC and three to the Bharaty Jantaa party.

[00:04:44]Do you there have been also maximum deletions that have happened in these very districts uh in the second phase then in the first phase where sir is concerned how much of a factor do you think that will play out because where there were at least 76 seats where the margin of victory the last time around in 2021 was over 25,000 which is sizable understanding even the constituency components of each of these assembly seats. So to put that in perspective, can do you does the close call that there is in these exit polls make sense to you?

[00:05:17]>> Yeah. See this is this is a this is an interesting factor that what tral congress camp is I think little worried about that they know that the target of trouble congress in this election is 148 which is halfway mark plus one but the target of BJP is not 148 it is 125 125 to 130 because tral congress and their sympathizers and leaders are well aware aware that if the gap between BJP and trumal congress is somewhat like 20 odd 30 odd seats then In other states what they have seen and they have told me that they have seen in other states that the government doesn't survive or they fail to form the government. We have seen it in many other states you know how the how the how the ruling party splits or you know the BJP aligns with the local parties etc. So of course in Bengal it's difficult to align with local parties but there is no guarantee that if Trinamul gets like 150 160 seats that the party will not split. Now that is very very important. So trumble congress really needs to get uh 200 plus whereas BJP for BJP 125 is fine. Now to get 125 coming to your point they have to get like you know in the first phase apparently their calculation is last time they got 59 out of that 152 seats.

[00:06:33]Now this time they need to this time they plan to get about 100 to 110 in the first phase which is partly their stronghold which is absolutely extreme North Bengal. Now out of that 152 their assessment is they're going to get 70 to 75 which means another 50 to 60 odd seats they have to get in the second phase. Now that is a very uphill task because in the first in the second phase out of these 142 they only got 13% as in 18 seats.

[00:07:01]>> May I just come in in this and maybe go back to the numbers of the first phase.

[00:07:05]We saw 72 seats at least which had over uh you know uh a winning margin of over 25,000. And so Vijit you know come in here and we'll bring in the other guests and Maria as well. I'm you know I've gone back now to the first phase where the margin of victory was over 25,000 and again in the first phase the margin of victory in 51 seats was over 25,000 where the TMC led in 41 141 with a margin of 25,000 the BJP just 10. How does it all add up now? You add up 51 seats with a margin of win of over 25,000 and you add 72 of that where 70 plus 41 here. So there are over 110 seats that the TMC won the last time around with the margin of over 25,000 uh votes. Shoujit sorry make your point.

[00:07:55]>> Yeah I mean the I mean the last part of it. So you know out of this 142 if they have to get 18 uh 55 60 seats so they have to give a big lip from 18 to 55.

[00:08:06]Now that is three times the number of seats that they got last time. And that also in Trinumul Bastion of South Bengal we have discussed this women vote factor Muslim vote factor in that area. So whether they can do it or not I do not know. Now if you come to the margin and that is below 5,000 which is a tricky margin then you would see they are more or less evenly spread like Chernobyl Congress got nearly as many as BJP got in that 5,000 bracket >> and the below 5,000 margin. But you