Something Massive Is Shifting… | Scott Ritter Reveals Iran’s Strategic Turn Toward Russia and China

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]This is coming to a head. Everything's coming to a head. And um you know, it's going to be violent, but Europe's got nothing. Europe's like the United States. All words, no no substance. Or as they say in Texas, all hat, no cattle.

[00:00:15]>> Yeah. Scott, you mentioned all the trade for most Iranian nuclear program, I think. But the first step on the part of Iranian is to end war permanently on all fronts. You know, right after that they're talking about this >> never going to happen.

[00:00:35]>> How how is that how is that going to play out for the whole region, do you think? Because Israel is somehow attacking in southern part of Lebanon.

[00:00:43]The attacks are happening as we talk.

[00:00:46]Um, I just think that it's just like it's wishful thinking for the United States to say that we're going to get total control of the Iranian nuclear program. It's wishful thinking for Iran to think that a peace plan is going to involve the region. It's not. The Israeli Hezbollah problem is a unique problem to Israel and Hezbollah that requires Israel to physically withdraw from Lebanon. This means that Hezbollah is going to have to continue to kick their ass. You know, people forget that Hezbollah beat the Israelis once.

[00:01:14]straight up caused them to leave Lebanon. Uh and then they fought them to a standstill in 2008 or was it 2006, I think. Um and right now they're beating Israel. You know, Hezbollah is supposed to be defeated, non-existent, not there.

[00:01:28]The Israeli troops on the ground are getting slaughtered every day. They can't advance anymore. Um and there's no solution to this. So, you know, I I while there may be some sort of quasi ceasefire in place, I I think if the Iranians insist on resolving the Israeli Hezbollah conflict, it's just a non-starter. It's just like it's the equivalent of the United States asking for Iran to give up all of its nuclear.

[00:01:52]Um, it isn't. You have to physically destroy Israel to make that happen. I don't know if Iran's ready to go that level right now. Um, you the Iranians are strategic thinkers. I mean, they've proven that. Um, they they've shown great foresight in not pursuing a nuclear weapon. I just want to remind all the people out there say this this proves Iran needs a nuclear weapon. No, it doesn't. It proves the exact opposite. Iran without nuclear weapon has defeated two nuclear armed powers, United States and Israel.

[00:02:23]And Iran knows that if it acquired a nuclear weapon, that would change the dynamic 100%. The first thing it would do is legitimize everything that's been said about Iran.

[00:02:32]and then you lose all the political support that Iran's been gaining because right now Iran is identified as the victim. If Iran decides to have a nuclear weapon, Iran will no longer be the victim, but the perpetrator. Doesn't matter how you can justify it. I'm just telling you what the facts are. Um, but Iran doesn't want it. I heard it straight from the president's mouth. I heard it from the foreign minister's mouth. They didn't get killed. They're alive today and they still don't want it. Um, and I don't think the son is going to contradict the father when it comes to the supreme leader. So, you know, he's not going to turn around and say, "Well, suddenly my father's religious genius, the two fatas he issued, no, they're Let's we're going to have nukes." He's not going to do that. So, Iran's not doesn't want nuclear weapons. I know there's hardliners in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Command that say things. They've always said things, but they're not the decision makers.

[00:03:22]They don't get make the final decision.

[00:03:24]And Iran's not going to acquire nuclear weapons. and um you know there will be a compromise on the nuclear uh side of it.

[00:03:31]So that's the genius of Iran. They think long distance and right now I think with the potential I think Iran has to be prepared to strike back hard. I mean if deterrence doesn't work unless people believe that you're going to do it. So um you know I I I you know if they do strike Iran needs to eliminate the United Arab Emirates totally 100% gone. And then it's proof that we're a n we're a power that can kill nation states. Who wants to die next?

[00:04:02]And um and that's deterrence in its own right. U picking on the United Arab Emirates is pretty good because they're an extension of Israel. We now know that Israeli troops were fighting on UAE soil. Israeli troops brought that Iron Dome to the United Arab Emirates. Boots on the ground. Um why isn't the Muslim world in an uproar over this? That's what I don't understand. Where's Saudi Arabia? Where's Qar? Where's Kuwait?

[00:04:27]Where's Bahrain? Where's everybody telling the United Arab Emirates, you are now the leper? We reject you. We drive you out, you know, but they're quiet about it. They're silent about it.

[00:04:37]But, um, it's a humiliation to the to the Muslim world to have Israel, which despises the Muslim world, despises the Gulf Arab states, is seeking greater Israel, um, you know, out there deploying troops on a on an Arab country's soil. um shocking, but I I I think the Iranians are capable of understanding that the future solution, and this is where the Chinese and to a lesser extent the Russians come in, um is economic that the economic liberation of Iran will be the victory, the ultimate victory. Um Straight Hormuz is essential for this because it is their oil nuclear bomb. Meaning if you ever mess us again, we just do it. We just choke you. um they will retain great um connectivity with the hoodie who can choke the Baba Mandeb straight. So there's dual choke points. It's the end of the west. Um they've already proven that and that's the ultimate deterrence because they've proven what they can do and we've proven we can't do anything about it. So that's what I think deters future conflict. There is no military solution. For the United States to strike Iran would be because of political impetus. when you're dealing with a mentally ill narcissist, which we have a mentally ill man in the White House, anything's possible, but hopefully surrounded by enough people to say we can't win this war and the consequences will be fatal to our allies in the Gulf Arab region and also um what will cause a global depression, especially to us in the United States.

[00:06:08]And then you have to think about your political legacy and what your future's going to be. And the the fact is you may not just get impeached, but you might get convicted. and uh you know that's the end of your your family. Um hopefully people are saying this and the adult brain of this insane man recognizes that he's staring you know his future before his eyes. He needs to walk away from this war and Iran has to without compromising fundamental things.

[00:06:38]Iran needs to allow him to walk away from this war and I think that's the message that Russia is sending that China sending.

[00:06:47]>> Scott, what was the achievement of Benjamin Nadna with this war against Iran? because we've learned from multiple reports recently about the bases, the US bases in GCC countries and just yesterday we had the Washington Post article about how extensively they were hit by Iranian missiles and Iranian drones. And I would say this is not about the United States, it's about Israel because what has happened in GCC countries is directly influenced in this situation with the interceptors with the air defense system of Israel. And how is Israel today? How because it it's a I would say the achievement of Benjamin Net's administration because they wanted this war for such a long time. What was the outcome for Israel?

[00:07:36]>> Strategic defeat.

[00:07:38]I mean, what did they accomplish?

[00:07:40]Nothing.

[00:07:42]Literally nothing. In fact, it's the exact opposite. Um, you know, given the fact that Iran's nuclear program, the weaponization of their nuclear program exists in the in the minds of the Israelis only. Um, all we've done, all they've done in uh initiating a conflict designed to terminate forever Iran's nuclear potential is create the seeds of future fantasies.

[00:08:07]Because now the Israelis, because they project themselves onto others, they say, "Well, we we went after them." You know, there's that old saying, if you're going to kill the if you're going to strike the king, kill the king. They struck Iran, but they didn't kill Iran. And now Iran's there.

[00:08:23]And this war will end with less than a total eradication of Iran's nuclear program. which means in the fantasydriven minds of the Israelis, Iran not just retains the capacity to produce a nuclear weapon, but now the motivation, the justification because of what Israel did. And so this is going to drive people like Netanyahu insane. It also is going to create a politically unsustainable position because he's going to be expo, you know, it it this was his last gambit. This is why the Israelis are holding on. um because it's now turned out that he's defeated nobody. You know, he it started out with October 7th. They still haven't had that full investigation. When they do, Benjamin Netanyahu's political career is over because it'll become apparent that, you know, his failures as a leader helped create the potential for October 7th to happen. Um as he fought the Hamas, as Hamas fought him to a standstill, he had to, you know, expand the war to justify staying in power. And so he went to war against Hezbollah. Um and you know he killed Hassan Nasra and you know had the pagers blow up and you know he was going to win there. Then he expanded the conflict into Syria. But this wasn't enough because no matter what he did, he didn't solve any of these problems. He still had you know the same domestic political problems that he faced. Uh totally unpopular with the people of Israel. Remember, this is a guy that even before October 7th had happened had hundreds of thousands of Israelis in the streets demanding his resignation because he was seeking to alter uh fundamental law in Israel so that he was above the law. He couldn't be prosecuted for the corruption charges he's currently being prosecuted with right now. Um and it, you know, he's like a Ponzi scheme. Uh in order to stay in power, he had to keep expanding. Um but it was all a lie because the he was never going to achieve any victory. Uh the final straw was of course Iran. Now for Iran to be possible, the United States had to be a part of it. The Israel would never have attacked Iran to the scope and scale they did without American involvement. And he just happened to have an insane sucker in uh Washington DC that uh that listened to his garbage and agreed to this. Um but it failed. There's nowhere else Netanyahu can go with this. Nowhere else. So you're looking at the political collapse of Netanyahu inevitably. Uh he cannot survive this. Um, you know, the truth will come out about the damage that has been done. If you just don't pretend you live in a world where Iran took out the totality of American military infrastructure in the Gulf Arab states and did no damage to the Israelis. The same weapons that took out uh the American bases took out did damage and Israel's hiding this, but significant damage has been done to Israel. The Israeli military knows this.

[00:11:07]Now they're trapped in a forever war in Lebanon. Hezbollah, who they thought they had defeated, isn't defeated. And um Gaza could blow up again. Syria is out of control. Um you know, and now you know what Netanyahu's done is created a new Iranian threat in the in the form of Turkey. Um where they're saying, well, we have to expand this. Turkeykey's a NATO member and Israel's talking about the potential of armed conflict against Turkey. Um it's over. And so from from the Iranian perspective, you know, this is one of those situations. just wait and the problem will resolve itself. Uh Israel's on the fast track to national insolveny. Their economy is trash. That's why they needed the Abrams Accord and their biggest partner in the Abrams Accord, United Emirates, is going bankrupt as we speak.

[00:11:57]Acts of desperation, calling in $3.5 billion loan they gave to the Pakistanis, evicting 15,000 Pakistanis and stealing their money in the process.

[00:12:05]Um withdrawing from OPEC so they can flood the market with their oil. But they can't because the straight of Hormuz is, you know, is closed to them.

[00:12:15]So, you know, Israel is collapsing. The the whole scheme of greater Israel is collapsing. The best thing the Iranians could do is just let it collapse sometimes. Just get out of the way and let let things happen. And that's why I think that um you're you're not going to see a comprehensive regional peace plan because it's a it's it's impossible um to Israel right now is I mean look at the Iranians if you if we had had this conversation I don't know in April of this of last year and we said Iran was going to um you know destroy everything and do all this we'd We'd both be like, >> "Exact, >> maybe escalation management, maybe." But I mean, you know, the Iranian government doesn't do decisive stuff like this. Um, well, they did. Um, why? Because it's a battle of existential proportions. They have no choice. They were given no options. Trust me, had they been given options, I believe they would have taken those options. History shows this. Um, but they had no options. So they struck into Israel's in a similar boat right now. Israel's facing a struggle of existential proportions. Um and the last thing you want to do is try and back a nation that's facing such a struggle into a corner where they have no options. All right? Let Israel die. Let them die because that's what's happening. They're dying. Let them die.

[00:13:46]That would be my advice. But um and and but I don't I just don't see if Iran forces this issue. I don't see Israel yielding because we're talking about again another narcissist, Benjamin Netanyahu, uh who's looking at his political legacy and looking at dying in jail. So, it's very personal to him. Um you know, why why force the issue? Why force his hand? Why why compel him to do, you know, something irrational? Um right now he's contained containable.

[00:14:16]He's he's he's trapped in a war that he can't win in Lebanon.

[00:14:21]um you know and he has political problems at home. Um don't give him an opportunity to become the martyr.

[00:14:30]That's that's and I so that's why I think it isn't you know we're not going to be seeing decisive moves against Israel. Israel lost this war. They lost it. It was a it was a big gamble on his part. That's why Israelis are mad at the United States because they know that if the United States is seeking to withdraw that's the end of the gambit. They can't win without the United States.

[00:14:52]>> I think that's the main concern right now because an Israeli official or source told CNN that the United States is seriously considering removing sanctions on Iran and Israel is concerned about it.

[00:15:06]>> We have no choice. I I love that they're seriously it's one of the demands that Iran's put down for conflict termin Iran's not walking away with sanctions in place. That's not gonna. And remember, it's not like, you know, Scott Besson sitting there in his little desk going, "Sanction them. Sanction them."

[00:15:25]And there's no repercussions to America.

[00:15:28]Iran's got the world by the throat, choking the world off. So the United States can't sit there and say, "Well, we're going to delay." We have to make a decision. We have to make a decision soon. And um and so you know this is where I think Iran you know has I love that meme they put out Donald Trump you know America's holding all the cards and so the Iranians show Donald Trump and a handful of but it's UNO cards where holding the cards is a bad thing and the Iranians are sitting there with a smaller hand with all the good cards going yeah um you know so you know but that's the truth the Iranians have the advantage here um there's not we proved operation freedom can't do anything. Do you understand how humiliated it is that we went to war against ourselves?

[00:16:16]That means we panicked.

[00:16:18]It means we have no impact. We have no ability to project power in there. The red, white, and blue uh shield that we put over the street over was fictional just like everything else we do is fictional. Um, so the United States is going to lift sanctions and I think that's one of the things the Russians are telling them, the Chinese are telling them that there could be no peace without the lifting of sanctions. Now, the United States is going to we always play stupid games.

[00:16:45]And so we'll say, well, there are certain sanctions that are um in play that are linked to uh, you know, terrorism, and if Iran continues to support Hezbollah and and the Hoodi, then they're supporting terrorist entities, and therefore these sanctions will stay in place. That's a bold statement to make. Why are you being choked off? So, um we'll see how long that lasts. I have a feeling the Russians and the Chinese are saying no.

[00:17:09]It must be comprehensive that all um laws, all um you know, it's going to be tough for the United States, but at a minimum all international sanctions, United Nations sanctions have to be lifted. The United States needs to lift sanctions that are attached to the nuclear program, ballistic missiles, the the terrorism aspect of it. you need congressional consent. And so here we have an issue right now because a lot of Republicans aren't uh inclined to support, you know, the total lifting of sanctions. And even if they were, um, you know, the Democrats could drag this thing out until November and then, you know, we have a different reality. So that's one of the areas I I think Iran is going to have to be frustrated with because there's certain political realities at play that that aren't conducive to the total lifting of sanctions. No matter how justified that is, um you've got to be realistic. But the most important thing is the lifting of international sanctions. China's already shown that American secondary sanctions no longer frighten anybody.

[00:18:15]um you know, they've just told the United States, pound sand. Um if you if you sanction us, we sanction you back and it's total economic war and you can't win. Um and that's that's the truth. So I Iran, you know, I think gets by by having international sanctions lifted, then diving into the SECO, diving into bricks and uh and just hugging them so tight that the United States will never be able to separate them with any domestic legislation. and the Russians and Chinese will never again allow the United Nations to impose Security Council mandated sanctions. Um, you know, I think that's the future of Iran. It's a good future, by the way. I I I person you and I you and I have had this talk before. I I I think that's the future for Iran. I think the future isn't militancy, isn't aggression. Um, I think the future is, you know, a decisive pivot to the east. Um, now your president's going to have to stop being in love with the West and your foreign minister is going to have to stop being in love with the West and a lot of Iranians are going to have to start falling out of love with the West. Um, I don't mean to hate us, but um, we're not the solution. We're the problem, especially as long as you have Europe the way it is and the United States the way it is. Uh, it's fanciful thinking to, uh, to imagine uh, in the near future a United States willing to do trade with uh, Iran on an equitable basis. Um, you can't trust us. We're liars. We lie about everything. We can't be tr and Europe's the same way. They're dysfunctional liars. The people that have been upfront and honest with the Iranians over time, especially recently, are the Russians and the Chinese. And I I I just I am continually flabbergasted that there's still an element within Iran. And I understand it because there's a significant Iranian diaspora here in the West. A lot of connectivity back and forth. Um, but at some point in time, you know, even the Iranian diaspora has to recognize that the if you truly love Iran, the solution isn't anything imposed by the West. The solution is Iran pivoting to the global economic future of the world, which is in Asia.

[00:20:26]>> Scott, do you see any sort of false flag operation to sabotage everything? because we had Napali Bennett two days ago arguing that if the United States leaves the region that's going to bring a new 9/11 to the United States and >> I I no I I don't I don't see that. Um no I I don't I don't see it at all. There's I mean there may be an attempt but the idea that that's going to trigger a repeat of a failed uh legacy. I mean I know the United States is insane. You know and Albert Einstein once or at least been attributed to him said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. So we had a 911 that got us involved in 20 years of global war on terrorism that we lost. Straight up lost. I know. We killed a 57 year old diabetic. Yay, Seal Team Six. You guys are so good. You rock, baby. Um, you know, and we got Saddam Hussein hung by the neck until dead. Um, you know, even though he had nothing to do with 911.

[00:21:36]Um, you know, so but we just were humiliated in August of 2021 with the final withdrawal from Afghanistan. And the idea that we're, you know, we we've now just lost a war with Iran and we're going to be sucked back in because of some false flag attack. I don't see it.

[00:21:54]I don't see anybody falling for that.

[00:21:59]>> How do you see, Scott, the future of the United States foreign policy when it comes to Israel and what Israel wants from the United States, which we know is endless wars. They literally wanted the want the United States to fight each and every war in the Middle East and in the region for them. And it seems to me that Donald Trump is just the peak of what could have happened. And it's not going to be the same way as it was as we've been witnessing with the Trump administration as time goes by in the United States.

[00:22:33]>> Donald Trump's a political animal. Um and the game is survival. and uh you know he he needed Miriam Adlesen to get elected. So he took her $200 million bribe and um he staffed his team with all the people that Miriam Aden liked, especially Marco Rubio and Secretary of State. She wanted him to be vice president. Um and this team, this golden team of Zionists, uh have humiliated Donald Trump, humiliated him. And this is a man who, you know, is in is is as vindictive as the day is long.

[00:23:08]If his political legacy is on the line and the threat that, you know, exists that can, you know, destroy this legacy comes from this various this this very Zionistic enterprise that he has empowered with Miriam Aden's money. Um, he'll drop that in a heartbeat. There is no loyalty in Donald Trump. None whatsoever. He has no obligations. Um it's all about power and um I think you'll see that he's going to divorce himself from the Zionist as quick as possible and anybody who peeps gets fired. You know, heads will roll because of this war. Just people need to understand that. And it won't be Donald Trump's head. He's going to take Pete Hegath is dead man walking. I don't know when it's going to happen, but it's going to happen soon because the man's just an embarrassment. You saw his testimony before United States Congress.

[00:23:59]uh the the guy is, you know, hyped up on, you know, some sort of testosterone induced cocaine substitute. Um how dare he speak to the United States Senate in the way he did? I wish I had been a senator because I would have leaped out of the seats and punched him dead in front of the world. I'd go to jail for that gladly because he's a disgrace.

[00:24:17]This this secretary of war, um why, you know, he doesn't he doesn't have a right. He works for the American people and he's up there arrogantly defending illegalities and um you know and he and he's not smart. He's just not a smart person at all. Um so his head will roll.

[00:24:36]I think Donald Trump's going to get rid of him as fast as possible. This will be Pete Hex's failure. Marco Rubio is a more difficult um you know aspect. Um you know he's combined national security adviser, secretary of state. it might be time to pull Rubio in um and you know relieve him of his national security advisor status, bring in somebody new um and leave uh Rubio with the with the secretary of state. Uh because I think that the dual hated also helped get us involved in this war. Um, you know, Scott Bessant, um, again is a man who's just brought economic catastrophe.

[00:25:20]Um, and, um, he's also alienated the United States with China. And it may, you know, we'll we'll see if Trump does have this meeting with Xinping. I don't think Bessant comes out of this meeting looking very well. I think he's a humiliation to the United States. He's a detriment to Donald Trump's legacy. And, uh, we may see his head role, too. And now suddenly you're you're sort of in a Zionist free zone. You've created a Zionist free vacuum. And if you staff it with the right people, um you're no longer doing Israel's bidding. And I think that's the that that's the direction we're heading. Donald Trump is a political animal. 60% of the United States population today views Israel as as bad juju. 59% view uh Netanyahu as bad juju. These are unprecedented numbers. Uh, and it's only going to get worse. You know, the American people, unfortunately, aren't moral, we don't have a moral compass. I thought we did, but we don't because we allowed genocide to take place and we allowed this illegal war of aggression to take place.

[00:26:17]You know, the people aren't against the Iran war because it was the wrong thing to do or was against the law. They're against it because we lost. And they're feeling the price of the the pinch at the pump. You know, Bill Clinton knew this. That's why on his war room in 1992 um they had the uh the sticker it's the economy stupid. Um it is the or 1991 it is the economy stupid. Um 92 I guess. Um got to remember which election year cycle but that's what wakes America up.

[00:26:47]We don't have a moral compass. We just understand when it pinches us in the pocketbook. And right now Israel is pinching us in the pocketbook. And so goodbye Israel. And I think that's what we're going to see. We're going to see a decoupling of the United States from Israel. I don't know how is this sustainable because now it comes down to a question of how quick Israel collapses. Um I I do think that Israel is going to be experiencing extreme economic difficulty in the notsodistant future. And it's going to be so extreme as to promote depopulation. And as people flee Israel and go back to where they belong, which isn't Israel, um it, you know, demographically becomes almost impossible to sustain the notion of a a Jewish homeland. So, you know, that's what I think is the direction we're heading with Israel.

[00:27:36]>> Scott, we had two administration, the Biden administration forcing Russia to react to somehow start, you know, to start a new war with the case of Ukraine. And again, the Trump administration doing the same force in Iran because we know, by the way, the two the two countries were trying so hard with Russia in 2021, December 2021, trying to do everything to negotiate with the United States and NATO. And we had the same case with Iranian case.

[00:28:07]They they were negotiating two times while the United States was, you know, somehow, you know, preparing behind the scene to attack to do a surprise attack.

[00:28:16]the two countries were forced into these new positions that they're in. And is that gonna happen with the case of China as well? Because we had some sort of tariffs on China, but militarily is that going to happen again?

[00:28:32]>> We have no military power. What are you talking about?

[00:28:36]What do we got? We had theory. We had the theory that we were the most powerful bluewater navy in the world.

[00:28:42]We had a theory that our aircraft carriers uh would be able to project power in a way that could intimidate China or the US Air Force could do the the same. Um what the Chinese now know is that the US Navy is a paper tiger. Uh it'll get sunk before it gets anywhere near the Chinese coast and there's nothing the United States can do to stop that from happening. Um, and they also now know that the air defense umbrella that's u currently postured over Taiwan won't work and that um, you know, all they have to do is take the Iranian game plan and saturate it with drones on day one and the Chinese have a whole bunch of drones uh, watch uh, the depletion and come in with their sophisticated ballistic missiles and in 3 days Taiwan is destroyed. Um, that's the reality right now. And so the United States isn't going to militarily intimidate China. The other reality is that China can shut down the South South China Sea and u and choke off Japan and South Korea at will. Now it's no longer a theoretical capacity.

[00:29:46]We now know the United States has no ability whatsoever to uh to to to you know seize control of the South China Seas from from China. Uh we also know that China can use proxies to shut down the straight of Mullica perhaps Indonesian proxies. Another choke point.

[00:30:04]Um the you know the we're seeing literally um the end of an empire, the American Empire. Um the American Empire was premised on control of the seas. You know our bluewater navy. We control we were everywhere. Um we can't control anything and we just proved it. I mean the that's why this operation freedom defeat is such a uh a big deal because it proves the United States is just as impotent as the day is long. Um so I don't think we have the same thing and and now we get back to Russia. Um, you know, the the thing about Russia that people need to understand is that Vladimir Putin's been playing in in my mind um a a brilliant game um that that happened because he made a mistake. He didn't make a mistake going into Ukraine, the special military operation.

[00:30:56]He had no choice. He was given no choice. Um, the mistake was believing that Ukraine was agreement capable because the whole premise of the special military operation was to get Ukraine to the negotiating table quickly. It wasn't to take Kiev. It wasn't to do any of that stuff. It was to put pressure on Ukraine to have a negotiated end. And we saw that immediately after the conflict started.

[00:31:23]Um, they began negotiating in Gome in Belerus. uh after three or four rounds there, they ran off to Turkey and within a month or so they had an agreement and uh that would have been the end of that would have been a great Russian victory to get the agreement they wanted. Um but NATO, the United States and Ukraine turned out to be in agreement incapable. Um and so the war escalated and Russia's been dealing with that escalation. People forget um that when they started the special military operation, the Russians weren't looking at a long-term conflict. Um and so when you speak about an economic plan to deal with sanctions, they had a plan, but Putin wasn't sure if that plan would work. I mean, people were like, why didn't he mobilize early on? Well, gosh, I don't know why. um because you didn't know if your economy was going to be um going through you know not just recession but perhaps depression because of sanctions um you know there was talk about 20% u you know constriction of of of Russia's economy turned out to be singledigit and then Russia turned right around and started having a growing economy um but you know Putin has been managing things if Putin came in hard Um, China may have found itself in a little bit more difficult position politically to uh to support that. Putin had to play um a game that was premised on, you know, that this wasn't a war, that it was a special military operation linked to legitimacies found under article 51 of the United Nations charter in terms of collective self-defense, preemptive in nature. All of which are cognizable claims. The Russians have law on their side, even though the West doesn't like to acknowledge it. Um, but he's had to manage this. he has to had to manage. Then the game-changing event where the United States and Western Europe rather than acknowledging that Russia defeated the Ukrainians and pushing for, you know, a a closure through a peace treaty um doubled down and and started new lend lease and started injecting tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars worth of military aid. Um and Russia found itself in a proxy conflict with the collective west. Now, how do you manage that? Um the first thing Russia had to do is take care of its strategic base. You know, all these people again are out there.

[00:33:43]Russia needed to do this, that, and the other thing. I don't know. Maybe what Russia needed to do is expand their military from 900,000 to 1.6 million so that the other fronts were now taken care of as you draw down resources to uh the special military operations. So, they rebuilt their military, which means they needed to activate defense industry. They're not just applying a war, you know, they're in the process of equipping hundreds of thousands of troops that have brought into existence new military formations. Um, and they've done this. It's been ignored in the West, but they've done it. And now they've taken it up. I think they're going to 2.2 million, expanding even more. Why? Because if you're going to fight the West, you need to have the capacity to do it. Um, they don't want to fight the West. They've avoided this.

[00:34:28]I think they're getting ready to fight the West. Um, this is the fatal mistake because as Russia's gotten stronger, Europe's gotten weaker. Uh, I mean, the Germans are indicative of this. 111 billion euros uh were allocated for, you know, defense military uh rehabilitation.

[00:34:46]Um the Germans don't even know where it went. It's but it went into a into a money pit and the German army's weaker today than they were when before they got that money. It's just it's it's amazing how weak the Germans are. Um the French are weak. All of Europe's weak.

[00:35:01]They've got no military capacity at all.

[00:35:04]And yet they're sitting there flexing muscles that are premised on the notion of America backing them up. Well, that's over thanks to Iran. So now the United States, you know, is in a position where at best they're neutral about Europe and at worst they're um they're they're turning their backs on Europe. At the same time that Europe continues to play the escalation game, you have, you know, Britain and Germany uh building drones on behalf of Ukraine, giving them to the Ukrainians so they can strike targets in the Russia strategic depth. And you now have Poland, the Baltic nations providing a corridor through their territory so that drones can get to uh to St. Petersburg. You have the same thing happening where drones are transiting Kazakhstan to get into the Russian strategic depth. um and they're hitting and they're starting to have an impact on Russia's uh energy sector. I mean a strategic impact on Russia's energy sector. This is unsustainable.

[00:35:59]And so Russia now is going to be compelled to take action. It will be decisive in nature when it occurs. It will not be, you know, giving, you know, giving Europe a chance to match escalation with escalation. They will come in hard. Um and I think the first thing they're going to do is take out Kiev. um you know unprecedented the Russian military said evacuate the city.

[00:36:21]If you remember when uh when when the Russians unveiled the archnic missile um they said you know this missile is horrible and if we use it uh it'll it'll it'll take you know have the equivalent of a nuclear weapon in terms of the devastation that'll occur. Um but the Russians said you know we would obviously give uh civilian populations advanced notice. Um, and they never did because they never used it against the Ministry of Defense come out. They didn't say you should think about, they said evacuate.

[00:36:54]Evacuate. No options. All civilians must evacuate. All diplomatic staff must evacuate because if the Ukrainians attack us, we're going to take out Kiev with ballistic missiles. Um, it may and I think we're going to find that Russia has missiles besides Arressik. Um, and it's going to be absolutely devastating for Ukraine, but that's what needs to be done on the battlefield. You know, the Ukrainians, let's, you know, people don't think about how these things happen, but the Ukrainians, of course, now have almost exclusively focused their um their mobilization on uh creating drone units. So, they're, you know, they want to bring in women for drone units and all this stuff.

[00:37:35]Where are they getting their drones?

[00:37:36]These these uh firstperson view drones.

[00:37:38]Um, they're making them at home.

[00:37:42]now, but they're not making them in big factories. What the Ukrainians have done is they've taken these components and they um housewives are building components. And so they've taken drone manufacturing and they've put it throughout the civilian infrastructure.

[00:37:58]And as a result, they're able to produce, you know, tens of thousands of drones and a day. Um and now and so now these new drone units come in and they've changed the reality of the battlefield. Russia is still advancing, but it's slower. There's the concept of maneuver warfare. Um, you're not maneuvering anywhere with that many drones. Now, Russia has a counter for it. They've created a unit called Rubicon. Um, and Rubicon, you know, I think they were 5,000, might be 15,000 strong now. Specialist counter drone capabilities. So when the Ukrainians seek to um you know overlay their their new drone capacity on the battlefield to change the dynamic, Rubicon comes in and starts killing everybody and um eventually they they drive them back.

[00:38:44]But in the meantime uh they've made life hell uh for Russian soldiers. Uh the Russians can't have the amount of maneuver capacity up front because the drones are taking it out. So the Russians are compelled to fend their lines. They have a handful of men at the front line um who are able to hide and avoid these drones. But that creates opportunities for Ukrainians to counterattack. And so they counterattack. They seize some territory that's designed to be seized. The Russians built this in. Then the Russians bring in Rubicon and their own maneuver capability and push the Ukraine back and kill a lot of people. But it's created a different dynamic that people um in the west are saying, "Oh, the Ukrainians have fought the Russians to a standstill." No, they haven't. uh because they're losing men at an unsustainable level. But you know, we we've got this taking place. The Russians now recognize, again, one of the thing that Vladimir Putin has avoided is um taking casualties. But I think the Russians will recognize that at the moment you decapitate Ukrainian leadership, you have to come in and go for the kill on the battlefield. And um I think you're going to see the kind of decisive push that hasn't happened because the Russians are going to be willing to absorb the casualties to break through the drone zone and then kill everybody. Um so I think you know we're looking at a very decisive summer coming up the sum the summer of 2026. Um and that the United States is going to let this happen. Uh because the United States blames Zalinsky for the deadlock.

[00:40:10]Um and the United States is also embittered about you about Europe and how they've sustained a war and prevented peace from happening. So I think we're at a state right now that um the United States will acknowledge that uh Europe has you know become involved in this uh conflict to an extent that's unjustifiable and that Russia has every right to defend itself and the United States will give Russia a window of opportunity to inflict maximum damage and uh bring an end to this conflict. Um it won't be the United States working with Europe to uh come up with a deal that puts Russia in a bad place. it'll be the strategic defeat of Europe and Ukraine. And the United States sitting back there going, "You brought it on yourselves." Um, the war needs to end on terms acceptable to Russia and u and in exchange for that, Russia will help bring an end to the conflict um with Iran. Um, I think Russia will play a very important role in the uh in the nuclear side, but also in the finance side, the lifting of sanctions, because Russia will offer Iran incentives not to insist on, you know, the United States rewriting its legal code because that's not going to happen.

[00:41:18]>> But do you see at the end of the war in Ukraine, are they going to have Adessa or they're going to lose Adessa?

[00:41:31]Ukrainians talking.

[00:41:32]>> Yeah, I >> because it's so important.

[00:41:39]>> It's it's a tough one because um emotionally I think the Russians won Odessa emotionally.

[00:41:50]>> Strategically, it depends. It depends what happens. Look, we'll know in a couple days. will know on May 10th or 11th if if Ukraine exists as a modern nation state. As I said, I pray that they attack Russia on May 9th. I pray they do because that solves everything because I I I think people in Europe are thinking Russia's bluffing. I don't think Russia's bluffing and I think that'll be the end of Zalinsky, the end of the Ukrainian government, and the attack will be so devastating it'll break the will of Ukraine to fight. And when that happens, you'll see a collapse at the front. And if Russia has indeed created the reserves that some people say, there may be the ability to exploit that collapse and make a push and resolve the Odessa issue. Um, and you can resolve Odessa not by seizing the city, um, but by surrounding the city, cutting the city off and, um, and and then it's part of the piece is that Russia has given the city. I don't know.

[00:42:43]I don't know how this is going to play out. Um, because it's it's it's a problem fraught with political consequence. Um, it depends on how successful Russia is in this in this potential push. Um, but I look I, you know, I'm I'm I say friends. I'm friendly with uh I can say friends with Andre Leitzki. I like the guy and I think he likes me.

[00:43:06]So, we can call ourselves friends. Um, Sergey Karaganov, we've we've met and talked. Um, I respect him. Um, I don't know if I'm up in his friend. I don't think I'm in this circle of trust yet, but um I listen to the guy um and he's he's influential. You know, these people have always had a relatively hard line.

[00:43:26]Um but there it's always been a hard line tempered by political reality. But I think there's a growing recognition that the political reality has changed.

[00:43:36]You can no longer talk about Russian European relations using data that's two years old. Uh and that's what everybody, including myself, has been doing. I've been, you know, talking about, you know, how Russia relates with Europe and and NATO using, you know, 2024 as the um as the benchmark. Um things have changed strategically. the harm that's being done to the Russian economy by uh Ukrainian long-range drone strikes has um has liberated the Pentagon in many ways because again a lot of decisions aren't made because um there's there's there's alternatives at least in in theory there are no alternatives now for this to continue will bring about you know fatal potentially fatal harm to Russia so Russia has no choice and Caragonov is talking about So, I I honestly believe that we're going to see some very decisive action very soon. The Russia's been preparing for this. Um, and when it happens, it will shock the hell out of everybody. Uh, it will be shocking what happens to Kiev. It'll be shocking what happens to some European targets as well. Um, you know, pro hint, if you're producing drone parts for the Flamingo 5, um, you might want to not show up for work ever again because that factory is probably going to disappear. Whether that factory is in the United Kingdom, in Denmark, in Germany, it's going to go, um, as it should. I mean, and then Russia is going to dare Europe to do anything about it. And Russia, believe me, if they make this decision, then Russia's ready to take it to the the next level. Europe's not. I don't think Europe's ready to commit nuclear suicide. Uh but when you confront Russia with crises of existential proportions, Russia will respond accordingly. And that's the stupidity of what the Ukrainians and their British and German allies have been doing, not recognizing the reality of Ukraine's inevitable defeat, trying to create a, you know, a situation that gives them temporary propaganda points. We're hurting the Russians. Yes, you are.

[00:45:44]And now you're going to find out what happens when you hurt the Russians. And um it'll be fatal for Ukraine. Um I'm not unhappy about that. I I'm I'm sorry for the Ukrainian people, but hey, we're four plus years into a war that, you know, you're you're governed by banderas, you know, Ukrainian Nazi thugs. Um and you're doing nothing about it. Uh you're watching your men get dragged off and you're doing nothing about it. you haven't you don't have the gumption to rise up and take matters into your own hands. So you you have lost the right to exist as a modern nation state and so Russia will terminate Ukraine. I personally believe that that is what's going to happen. Uh it will be the war that had Russia fought it you know because you maybe I'm overly sensitive to this but you know everybody's like Scott you said the war was going to be over in a week.

[00:46:31]It would have been >> had Russia gone to war. That's what everybody forgets. Russia didn't go to war. I thought they were going to war.

[00:46:38]Did you think they were going to war? I think most people thought they were going to war when they came across.

[00:46:43]We're like, "That's a lot of tanks.

[00:46:45]Russia's going to war." But they weren't. It was a special military operation, which confused us because we had never heard that term before. I've been studying Russian military art forever. I didn't know what a special military operation was. I found out and then you realized the genius of what the Russians were doing, trying to get in the negotiating table, and you realized it was working. So their plan worked.

[00:47:06]What they didn't factor in to account was the fact that the the West is agreement incapable. Um and the West was seeking the permanent demise of Russia.

[00:47:17]You you had remember Lloyd Austin. We we want to destroy Russia. Biden kill Putin.

[00:47:26]That's and and it and it took Russia I mean because that was those were statements made in the summer of 2022.

[00:47:34]It's taken Russia four years to re to finally recognize that those threats were serious. And that's the ultimate objective of Europe is to kill Russia.

[00:47:43]So now that you've told Russia you want to kill them, uh don't be surprised when Russia kills you first. And I think that's the direction we're heading.