Smoke and soot particles in the atmosphere act as nuclei for raindrop formation, enhancing rainfall rates and thunderstorm development. When atmospheric particles increase due to smoke, they provide more staging platforms for water droplets to condense and grow, leading to heavier rainfall and more intense convective weather systems. This phenomenon explains why smoke-affected regions often experience enhanced precipitation and severe weather potential.
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LIVE COVERAGE OF THE JULY 18, 2026 TORNADO THREAT
Added:And we're live. Well, here am I thinking. Well, take a week off for live coverage for personal reasons. And what does the weather do?
It brings me back.
And boy, is it a Yeah, it just pulls you back in, right? Uh we have a lot going on right now. So, we're going to dive right into the radar, but just in case you're new, if in case you aren't new used to what we do here, okay, first of all, welcome. Uh, wish it was in the better circumstances, right? Um, but we're going to go over all of the information. We're going to be going live until we no longer have a threat for this tornado watch that's in place.
Typically, I don't do live coverage for severe weather because, well, quite frankly, doesn't really pan out aside from maybe one or two storms. So, not really um something that enhances live coverage, right? Because a lot of people don't join. But today, it's going to get interesting. We've already seen a lot of flooding. We've seen the smoke. Let's dive in, shall we? And here we have uh we're going to be using the data from uh weatherfront.com just so you know. It's a paid app. Uh but I want to let you know that we're using this so that way you know and we know and everyone knows. I already asked them it's okay to feature it. So that's fine. Um how did we get here? Well, we've had a lot of smoke lately. I'm sure you've noticed. And part of that smoke is really really important in this whole factor here. You might be wondering why.
Okay, so a little bit of physics is to go back. Okay. Um when you have let's say this is a smoke. Okay, this is a particle, right? Typically in the atmosphere, these particles are floating around and they act like staging units for rainfall, right? So when you get a raindrop, it starts with a little speck of dust, right? So this dust here which is a it's a glass wipe just in case you're wondering. Okay. So you have the glass wipe hanging around and you know it it's a lot it's it's it acts as a stage for your water drop right for your for your H2O and the isual grows on it and that's how you get your your water drop. Well, because of all the smoke and soot in the atmosphere, thanks to our Canadian friends, we have more of it.
So, because you have more staging platforms, you can have the development of more raindrops, which enhances the cumulus that builds cumulus clouds, which are thunderstorms, which we are hearing right now throughout the weather lab.
And this leads to two things. One, very heavy rainfall, which we've already seen throughout the New York City metro and now dropping into central New Jersey. Uh we have flood wip watches, severe thunderstorm warnings, flood warnings, and of course, our tornado watches going on right now in central New Jersey. This whole process is part of the warm front lifting northward at various levels of the atmosphere, which is destabilizing the atmosphere. And while that's happening, we also have different jet streaks, which we can start to see here.
If I pull up the right one, here we are on our water vapor satellite picture.
Our trough here coming through and little mid-level short waves diving in around this trough. So various levels of the atmosphere, you're getting these little short waves coming in enhancing the lifting. So, you're having all these processes happening while you're getting this jet streak influence. This is at 250 millibars. You see this little See this little piece? Zoom in. Let's zoom in. Let's get real close. Look at that.
Look at that divergence and dluence. But you see what that's doing? That is leading to enhancement of rising motion right over central New Jersey.
And that's why we're getting this training starting to set up. And this is leading to a lot of heavy rainfall in northern Mammoth County, portions of Middle Sex. It's now dropping right into the heart of Mammoth County, of course, right where we are. That's why we're hearing a lot of thunder. We're hearing lightning. Uh we'll do our live coverage for as long as we have internet. We got the power covered. We might go offline and then we'll have to come back again.
That is possible. Uh because we're in freehold and it doesn't take much to have a power outage in freehold.
But in this scenario here with all the soot in the atmosphere, this can produce enhanced rainfall rates. So that's what we're dealing with right now. Okay. Now, this whole process is taking place while we're waiting for the warmfront. We are not in a position right now for tornadoes. How do I know?
Well, let's take a look at the sounding here. We're requesting a sounding, pulling it up. It's generating. It's growing. You see these winds here?
Not exactly what I would call tornado uh threat here. Uh the winds are pretty much all in the same direction, more unidirectional. You have some dry air here, but this is more of a rain sounding. You certainly have play cape values here. Oh, there's our lightning.
That was a good lightning strike right there.
And it just shook the house.
>> Wow.
All right. All right. Let's You don't scare me. That's all right.
Wow. How about that, honey? What do you think of that lighting?
>> No comment. I think it scared the groundhog, though.
>> That it can do.
>> That it can do. There you go. Okay. So, this sounding here, it does feature some speed shear here.
Okay. Um, but not not not optimal yet. We're not there yet.
Jump into weather tap here. You see this warm front? Once it starts to lift through all these thunderstorms right behind the warm front, that's when we get tornatic, okay? Because the winds start to veer and boom, that's when we get the potential for some of those supercells. And that's showing up really really nicely here on the HRR guidance. I got too many too many websites up. Okay, so here's the HRR guidance and here's what it's showing. In fact, let's pull up the 18th just came up and it's these cells right here. I don't think this is going to be an all evening thing. I don't think the watch is gonna is going to verify at like 900 pm. What I think is that between 4, which we're starting to get into, and let's say 8:00 p.m. in that 4hour window, that's when we'll start to see our tornado threat starting to show up in southeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and then later towards the 8:00 p.m. hour towards central New Jersey.
That's what I think is really going to play out here as we move forward. By 900 pm, I think the I think what we shift to from 9:00 p.m. to midnight is more of a of a straight line wind threat with these thunderstorms and heavy rainfall with a lot of lightning. Okay, these thunderstorms are going to feature a ton of lightning and they already have. So, as you can see on our current observations, we have thunderstorms starting to fire up all over the place as the warmfront is making its move.
Just the one thing to note in these scenarios, the conditions change very, very rapidly. Let's pull up some observations here. I'm going to jump to the settings on this and I want to add guitars.
I want to add some data here.
Okay, good. Perfect.
Temperature. I want to see the station plot.
I want to see the whole thing. And there we go. Perfect. Okay. So, now we have that set up.
And the reason why I want to see that is I want to see the change of the winds because typically with the with the um National Weather Service, it takes a little bit of time for them to update their surface map, right? Which is fine because, you know, they only have so many people. So, what I like to do is look at the observations. So, what I'm looking for is this right here. You see this shift in the winds from the south?
You see that going on right now in southoutheastern Pennsylvania? That is our setup. So, you have winds from the south at the surface from the southwest at the mid levels and way up from the southwest. So, you have that cyclonic flow setting up that sets up your development of some of your supercells.
And here's an individual cell here.
Here's one here, here, here, here, developing around Baltimore. So, and down towards southeastern Pennsylvania, we should start to see these changes in these thunderstorms from traditional run run-of-the-mill severe thunderstorms with wind gusts pushing over 55 60 miles hour to those severe tornatic type thunderstorms. We're also starting to see the winds just recently now shift to the south here in southern New Jersey around Tom's River. So, we're seeing that evolution take place as this warmfront is going to move very quickly.
So, this sets up your whole environment of your tornatic potential.
And notice where we have our tornado watch. Basically over western New Jersey, central New Jersey, southern New Jersey, and southeastern Pennsylvania.
These areas is when we're maximizing the best time period with the instability in the atmosphere and also the moisture axis, which I want to show you, which is right here. Okay, so take a look at this.
Okay, this right here is just fuel for these thunderstorms. So, we talk a lot about precipitable water values and how it's very important to understand where we're at in with those precipitable water values. And again, this kind of goes back a little bit to the whole climate change argument, warmer atmosphere, all that stuff in our atmosphere because it's warmer. It's able to hold more moisture. Now, it's summer, so naturally, yes, you're going to be able to hold more moisture. So yeah, you're going to see a lot more potential for precipal war values going over 1.5 in.
But in the northern mid-Atlantic, um, you're talking about 2 2.2 2.5. When you start getting up to those levels of precipal values, you're talking about torrential rainfall rates where you could easily push three, four, five inches of rain. So it's all coming together here. And this gradient here, this this signal here makes me very concerned. You're going to see thunderstorms basically training in this area, feeding off of this gradient and then firing off those singular cells that can produce those tornadoes setting up around the region. That's why we have our uh tornado watch. Now, why don't we have any severe thunderstorm watches or or tornado watches for Long Island and Connecticut? Well, let's take a look at the instability. So, we'll do surfacebased lifting index. And this tells you the whole story here. So, your warm front is rapidly lifting to the northeast. Okay? And you could see that right here. And again, it's 3:42 p.m.
So, we're we're at the point where we're maximizing that lifting potential. While that's happening, you had the clouds start to clear out. So you had your sunshine, you had your heating here taking place. We didn't need hours. We just needed an hour or even just 30, 40 minutes to just stabilize the atmosphere.
And that's exactly what we got. So as a result of that we are now in a case where our lifting index anything over minus3 is you know time to put on your big pants big boy pants because it is going to get active.
Okay and we're talking about minus 7 and minus 8. That's that's impressive. Okay so we have energy in the atmosphere. We have everything evolving here to set up these thunderstorms. But more importantly, we have the gradient that is setting up in these areas. And that gradient enhances rising motion.
Whether it's gradient via temperature, moisture, or instability, that gradient enhances rising motion.
That enhanced rising motion allows for your thunderstorms to a train and b intensify. Now, you don't see that in New York City. You can thank the maritime air mass ahead of the warmf frontont here that is limiting your potential. But this maritime air mass is exactly why you got very heavy rainfall earlier and flash flooding because your thunderstorms got elevated. The lifting of that basically allowed all that moisture to get squeezed out like a sponge and that's how you had your heavy rainfall in the New York City metro and your flash flooding. that threat is starting to decline and we're starting to focus more in this area here. So, that's what we're going to be watching for over the next couple of hours as this whole system evolves. So, that's where we're at right now with our thunderstorms. And they're starting to train. We're starting to see lightning.
Haven't had too much in terms of heavy rain around Freehold just yet. Uh but I think that's about to change the way that this radar is showing up. We're seeing a lot of heavy rain to the north of us and to the south of us. Go figure.
Uh, but we're certainly seeing also a lot of lightning here and this is only the start. This is round one and we have more rounds on the way.
So, let me go and see if we have any questions here from our premium members.
And right now, warning just issued.
Live in Scotch Plains in a floodprone area. I have an indoor concert in Asbury Park tonight.
uh at 8:00 p.m. Should I be should I be driving down there or just hang tight at home and monitor the basement? Honestly, I probably would stay home tonight. This is probably not the night that you want to be a on the roads or b, you know, leaving your house in this scenario if you're concerned about flooding. I'm not saying that you 100% will see flooding Brian, but what I will say is that if you get stuck in these thunderstorms, they're producing some pretty good enhanced rainfall rates. So, that's certainly something that uh you might want to consider. I'm going to shift the radar here to Philadelphia version so we can get a little bit more analysis here.
You're here somewhere.
Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Maryland.
There's a lot of radars here, which is good. New work. This is This is a radar for the airport, New York. Of course, you have your different JFK, Montalk, UKX, OKX. I say that's Upton, North Carolina, Pennsylvania. Here we are.
And we DIX.
And I would just like to say thank you National Weather Service for actually having Dix working. Fingers crossed.
Hopefully I didn't didn't jinx that. So you can see the thunderstorm evolution here. There's a little bit better um detail here. Let's take a look at the winds here. Not seeing anything showing up just yet. This is more convergence confluence. I don't see this as anything turn. Not seeing anything yet that would suggest that. Um, so that's good news because right now we have a lot of straight line wind here.
Not anything uh beyond that point.
Let's see if we can get the rainfall rates here. And you could see what happens here when we have that rainfall. Look at it. I mean, you're talking about one and a half inches. Now it's raining heavy out there.
And that's just starting to slide right through Mammoth County. This is going to lead to a lot of flooding uh potential here. Again, the lightning is typical when you're seeing a lot of this tropical moisture in the atmosphere combined with all the smoke, which is a good thing that we're clearing out all this smoke. Unfortunately, we're going to have to go through some severe weather beforehand. Um storm total is already quite a bit of rainfall. Look at how much rainfall fell around the New York City metro already.
You're talking about rainfall amounts easily pushing over three inches here and that's all dropping southward.
Back to our standard radar.
So you can see we're lining up right now. Currently right now we don't have any tornadoes which is good. Let's take out take a look at the soundings as these winds are changing.
And now we're starting to see that veering taking place a little bit more supporting that tornatic potential here.
You see very nicely in the autograph. So that's what's starting to show up in southeastern Pennsylvania. Cape values pushing over 2,000 jewels per kilogram.
So plenty of energy in the atmosphere.
Let's check out southern New Jersey.
Watch out for these little individual cells, okay? Watch out for these ones because they can blow up real fast.
We're going to be watching very very carefully.
Soundings here.
And again, there's our vertical.
Just enough. It's not huge, but it's just enough.
Cape values. Okay. Cape value surface base 6,186.
This is in southern New Jersey.
That's that's like Oklahoma level. That's impressive. That's very very impressive.
Here um let's see VWAT values 2.38.
Downburirth cape 674 jewels per kilogram. That basically means that when we get lifting and that moisture lifts up into this dry column right in here, that means that that dry column condenses that that moisture and allows it to slam to the surface. Um, that's concerning. So that leads to a lot of potential for wind gust pushing over 60 70 miles per hour. So yeah, it's all there. We have our shear, we have our our potential here. Now it's just a matter of verifying now. Now, that's what we're going to be watching for, looking for that verification through this afternoon and evening. Uh, we're approaching four o'clock. So, we got five hours into the watch. We'll see see what what what plays out here. Uh, let's see here.
Thank you for the answer. Uh, thanks for doing this. What could we expect from northeast New Jersey? Northeast New Jersey, I think, is more heavy rainfall and wind damage. Okay. I would watch out for the potential for downburst wind gusts over northeast New Jersey. I'm not really concerned about tornadoes here.
I'm worried more about the potential for uh intense downpours. Um we're going to check out the rest of social media in just a moment.
Uh let's see here.
The stone the stone pony shell on the summer stage. O yeah. Well, that got moved to tomorrow. Smart. Tomorrow's going to be beautiful around here.
Um the venue could easily end up with power and flood issues itself. Yes.
Yeah. Yeah. I I would not do anything outdoors this evening. I think that's a bad idea.
Uh let's see here. Got some things here on Twitch I just want to cover real fast. Uh Fords I Fords.
>> Okay. Fords. Okay. Fords. There we go.
Yeah. But a lot of these guys who follow on Twitch are actually uh trucker guys like who are out on the road. So, thank you for joining. And there's that thunder. Wow. Uh let's see. 2 2.14 inches of rain in less than two hours as of 3:34 South Brunswick. That's right in that training heavy rainfall uh scenario. Uh oh, and Philly weather, good to see him. Uh dude, it's been like a month and a half since I've been able to actually watch these live chats live.
Nice to see you. Nice to see you, Philly. Hey, you know, Susan says hi, too. Absolutely. Uh, let's take a look and see what's going on on YouTube and X. Facebook is just kind of Facebooky.
Uh, so, yep. N Oh, it's good to see Freo Township is putting out uh the watches themselves on Facebook. That's a nice touch.
That's a nice touch.
Uh, let's see what we have here on Wow, there's a lot of stuff going on on YouTube. Holy smokes. So, let me just hit X real fast because that's a little bit less real fast. Uh, let's see. So, I'm currently in Marlin, New Jersey.
That is a good thing for later on. Yeah, if you're getting training right now, it reduces the potential but doesn't eliminate it if you're in central and southern New Jersey. Northeast New Jersey, it definitely reduced. Do you think the worst of it, Mrs. New York City. Yes. Yes, I do. Uh I think it's going Oh, thank you for reposting the stream.
I appreciate it. Oh, that's really cool.
Uh JBS, I don't know how to pronounce that, but thank you.
>> I am really good at butchering everyone's name. This is why I could never be a substitute teacher.
>> Names, places, everything. What do you expect for Camden County? A lot through 9 through at least through at least 8:00 p.m. uh Camden, New Jersey is going to be a very stormy place, training thunderstorms, potential for tornadoes.
Um so definitely. All right, so let's jump into YouTube because it is crazy. Wow, it is pouring out here now. It is like a It's like a monsoon. Well, at least the plants are getting water out here in Freehold.
>> Holy smokes. It is very impressive out there uh with the heavy rainfall.
Let me just check one thing here and then we'll get to the Facebook stuff.
Okay.
See a lot of activity here and I'm just curious in Freehold itself.
We're rapidly rising to a half an inch of rain in a very short period of time in Free Old New Jersey. Uh let's see.
I'm in New Jersey. No cap. I'm in my house hoping to not die. Uh you won't die. Okay. As long as you use caution and be prepared and don't stand outside.
Nobody with a metal pole outside. Thank you very much. Um flying, >> kite flying, anything of that nature.
Just stay indoors. Um, I'm in New Jersey by the water. Nothing serious. Just a lot of rain. Just be rain can be serious. The Phillies moving up the game time versus the Mets from 405 to 305 due to the weather. Yeah, it's not going to matter if they move move it up at all because they're just going to be I mean, take a look. I haven't really I didn't get I wasn't planning on watching the Mets game today. Um, they had thunderstorms earlier. They're probably I don't know if they're playing right now. I haven't checked.
That's how much I've been following the season unless it's a picture I like. I don't bother. And today was Bay Man Baya. So, they're trying to play.
They're playing right now. It's 2-1 Phillies. It's not They're not getting blown out. So, hey, good for them. Um see here to brunch sorry in the Trenton area seems the storm is moving southeast. Yeah the line definitely is see answer to things.
So basically, I think that we're start to see if there's going to be tornado threat, it's going to start to show up uh in the next over the next couple of hours, over the next two hours, we're going to start to really see it fire up because right now we're at that point.
Once we ex once we push over the 6 p.m.
hour, then we start to see that threat decline, which is what I'm kind of expecting here. Now, the more heavy rainfall you see, the more it starts to stabilize the atmosphere where you're at, which is certainly a factor here.
This is why based on the way this is playing out, I'm focusing right here.
Right here is where I'm thinking if there's going to be tornado threat, it's going to And watch this storm here. It's a severe thunderstorm right now. 60 mph winds. Let's take a look at the velocity here.
Nothing showing up yet.
This is This is a storm I'd watch out for.
Okay, it's by itself. There's nothing inhibiting it. It has a lot of cape to work with, a lot of moisture. It's right on that gradient. You're at 91 in Philadelphia. Keep an eye on this storm.
Keep an eye on this one, too. Lifting up, heading towards it. So, this is moving due east. This one's moving northeast. Watch this area here. I think this is where we're going to see.
I think Are we back? Let's see.
Okay, we're back on X YouTube and Twitch.
Okay. Wow, that was fun.
Facebook is dead. That's fine. Uh, let me make sure.
Hey, we're right back on live. Nice. I think Yeah. Oh, wow. Hey, look. We're back.
Okay, so where were we? That was fun.
We had a light a lightning strike. The generator came on for a second, came off, and then power came right back on.
the internet went out and then came back online. It was chaos. Hey, at least I didn't have to change everything with the >> Let me let me go back on on YouTube. Uh, okay. So, we're up and running.
Then I have to change anything back.
Okay. So, um, let me go check out everything that's going on YouTube real fast since we are live.
If things just stop, just assume we lost our internet.
>> Yeah. If we lose our Yeah, exactly.
We'll try and we'll try to get right back. And look look, everyone in live chat is saying, "Yes, we're back. We're back." Yes, >> we're back. And back.
Okay. Except for Facebook. Facebook died.
>> Facebook is just I I have given up on Facebook. Um, so yeah, we have a lot of stuff here on on YouTube. I'm going to try to a lot of stuff we already covered. Um, but let's see here. Yes, Mammoth County. For the person that asked about Mammoth County, yes, Mammoth County is involved in the uh tornado uh watch. We don't have any tornadoes warnings yet. We're going to get back to the data that we were just going over. Uh, but we definitely have flash flood warnings. That's definitely true. Um hopefully that was the worst of it around here. Uh I'm in Trenton area.
Seems a storm is moving southeast. I just witnessed a brunt first hand. Flash flood with three feet deep water. Maybe deeper. That's impressive.
Um I'm trying to catch up to see some of the stuff on here is just kind of repetitive. So Cape values in southern New Jersey are insane. I agree that's very much water likely in Trenton area is possible. I wouldn't say likely when you're dealing with severe weather. The words likely tend to get you burnt. So severe unless you have a very stable environment. All right. um that's when you could say likely like severe thunderstorms are unlikely to develop. Um but when it comes to convective weather, uh it can there's always a lot of chaos involved.
Finally got something here in Parksburg, Pennsylvania, Westchester County. Um I can't say I'm no weather expert, but if I had to guess, then just trying to capture get through everything here.
for the person asking about Mammoth County. Yes, Mammoth County is definitely uh in Well, we just lost power and the internet. So, clearly we actually now have the sun coming out. We have the sun breaking out, but maybe we might see a rainbow out of this.
>> Which >> come?
>> Really? No, I have it up on here.
Huh. That's weird. Well, if uh Ford or um or Philly can see me, let me know because it looks like it's streaming on here.
Just over 3 in in Keys, Keyport, New Jersey.
Severe thunderstorm still going to be a threat for Keyport, but definitely better potential further south.
It's just it didn't come up for me for some reason.
>> Ah, >> technology weird.
>> Let's see.
Just loading everything up.
So, uh, the person asked about Mammoth County about a billion times. Uh, they Yes, Mammoth County is in a tornado risk. especially if you're in central and southern Mammoth County.
But >> that is true.
So, we're going to just roll with X YouTube and uh Twitch and then go from there.
>> Facebook >> Facebook is well Facebook uh let me go back to the observations here. So, let me hit live here. So, Mammoth County, well, Mammoth County, you're about to get a little bit of break. Now, this sunshine here, this is going to destabilize the atmosphere again. So, this puts you back in the game after having that heavy rainfall.
In fact, let's take a look at the sounding. Let's take a look at the sounding in Mammoth County.
So, I guess I answered all the questions. We still have 199 following right now watching. That's pretty cool.
uh on on YouTube. Not bad. Uh all right, so here is our environment in Mammoth County right now. And our cape has been down a little bit, but still pretty impressive. 1,225 jewels per kilogram.
So we still have that marginal tornado threat. Look at the look at that. Now, that is what you call a cyclonic flow as you go vertically in the atmosphere. Look at that. From southeast to south to to southwest. That right there sets you up if we can continue to build on the instability here with the temperatures. We'll watch the temperatures in Mammoth County and Freehold right now. That will we reach the instability again? We drop down.
We're at 72 right now.
after all that rainfall. We got about a half an inch of rain.
So, our temperatures definitely dropped off and now we're going to see whether or not we see a rapid rebound with the sun breaking out because we certainly have the instability still and we certainly have the veering winds that's certainly in place now. Uh, so now it's just a matter of with the sunshine setting up, do we build up the amount of cape setting up in Mammoth County and northern Ocean County? I think we will. Uh, especially when we take a look at our visible satellite picture. Let's refresh this.
So, there's our thunderstorm. There's our thunderstorm complex to give our heavy rainfall.
Now, take a look at this right here around Trenton. Those clear skies are heading right towards us. I think we see a nice rebound setting up. I really, really do.
I think this opens up a round of severe weather for us as a result.
And let's see here.
I'm just taking a look to make sure that yeah, it looks like everything is good as far as the uh as far as the stream.
So, that's good.
Just making sure. Okay. So, now we have the brakes here. We have the instability. We have everything in play.
Now is the question of simply at this point, do we get to the point of uh of reaching the potential for these thunderstorms to get to that level to produce tornadoes. That's pretty much where we're at right now. And again, I'm watching this cell right here as it interacts with this cell lifting northward. So, watch out around the Philadelphia metro in northern Delaware, right around this area.
Right now, we aren't seeing anything stand out just yet.
We have our thunderstorm line here.
There's this is an outflow boundary right here. No sign of any type of tornadoes out here. So, that's certainly good news.
New York City, I think your primary threat going forward is your heavy rainfall threat.
>> They are. That's mean.
>> You could.
>> You want to get booted?
>> Don't tick off my wife.
Uh, let's see here.
Uh, I would not do a concert at City Field. I'd put it that way. Um, I don't think that's wise. I'm sure they'll try to pull it off. You'll have a break.
You'll definitely be able to, you know, as far as, you know, get start to play, but man, a lot of metal and lightning strikes, especially if it's go going past 10 p.m., that's that's just a bad bad idea.
Um, I don't see the tornado watch being extended. And the reason why I don't see the tornado watch being extended is because of the stable atmosphere in place.
Let me reset this here. So again, plenty of potential for heavy rainfall. The problem here is your instability right here. You see this? Let me zoom in. Come on.
There we are. Okay. See this? This is very stable air around Long Island. So, I see this as more as a heavy rainfall event. Same thing in northeastern New Jersey. You're right on the edge. I don't see this as a tornado threat, but more as a you I can't rule out a severe thunderstorm, but I think that the brunt of the severe weather is still going to be focused right in here, southeastern Pennsylvania, central New Jersey, southern New Jersey, right in this area, right here. And you know, that's where I kind of pointed out with premium members with the impact map. Um, let me just show that for those of you who aren't premium members.
Okay, we've had this out for the past 48 hours. Uh, this focusing in on this area as far as your best potential for those tornadoes. So, that's pretty much lining up pretty nicely here um with our setup.
Just checking to see if we have any premium member questions. Thank you guys for joining. I know that it's not always the most active, but hey, we are dealing with a pretty significant uh weather event. So, wanted to make sure that we uh get this covered. Now, I'm going to be very interested to see if we don't I think if we don't see a tornado by 6 p.m., I think that it's going that that the watch won't verify.
We'll keep an eye on it, see how it plays out. Let's see what else we got here on YouTube. Um, I see rotation developing velocity in radar in Pennsylvania. Haven't seen that yet.
I wouldn't I wouldn't let your guard down in Burlington County with some of these individual storms.
Uh, the air quality is definitely improving.
Should I stay home from going to dinner tonight? Uh, if you're in southeastern Pennsylvania or central and southern New Jersey, I just personally I would not be heading out personally.
The sun's really getting out there and we are rising here. Temperatures are rising through the 70s now in freehold.
So that destabilization is is returning again.
Uh here in New York City 165. Yeah, we'll see a significant improvement in in the air quality because of all these showers and thunderstorms and when the cold front clears through. I'm in New York City metro though. I am in Orange County, New York. I have had the sun break out here.
And there uh we have clouds miss here.
Am I on the heavy rain or tornado threat? More on the heavy rainfall threat in Orange County. I wouldn't be surprised to get a stronger or severe thunderstorm tonight with the cold front coming through. This is all with the warm front, by the way. Okay, this isn't actually the cold front just yet. Um, Salem County, there's a tornado warning in western Pennsylvania. Yo, yeah. Well, right out here, there's a a tornado out in central and western Pennsylvania where you have plenty of instability. I'm surprised they didn't put a tornado watch out here in central Pennsylvania to be honest with you.
So there's our thunderstorms lining up.
Let's take a look at the wind velocity. Now you see this right here. You see that? That's an outflow boundary. So what's happening is that you're getting the very heavy rainfall is flowing out and that cool rain cooled air is expanding out into the more unstable environment out here. So don't be surprised if you're in southern Ocean County and southeastern Burlington that you see the winds pick up significantly in these areas. So let's zoom in like so. Chadzsworth is probably hitting you right now.
Lacy Township that's on the way. So, this whole line here is just going to be some very strong winds out ahead of the thunderstorms that are coming on through and thus the torn the thunder severe thunderstorm warning. Wind gust 60 miles hour.
Uh tornado threat. Still a 50% chance of a tornado trying to pop up here. No sign of that just yet, but there these storms again, we have to watch out to see if we get like an F-zero. Now, when we look at the tornado threat here, it's not like the the threat that you would see in Oklahoma where you have a well-developed tornado forming and stuff like that.
That is not what we're dealing with here. This isn't F3, F4s, or anything of that nature. Uh the primary threat here is going to be the weak tornado, 90 miles per hour, maybe 110. Uh F-0 to at most F2. Um in this setup here, we'll take a look at our sounding. See what we got playing up here.
And let's see, we still have plenty enhanced cape values, plenty of shear.
So everything's still in play here. As our warm front continues to lift northward, we'll shift to our other radar real fast just so we could get a zoomed out view here.
So our warm front's lifting northward, thunderstorms forming under it and along it. cold front back to our west here, marching its way through.
And the weather tap radar if that loads.
We're kind of reloading everything because of the power loss.
Let me get some of this stuff out and this so you can see the update here. You see the warm front. Again, this is going to lag behind reality because everything's changing so quickly, but you can see the update with the warm front rapidly lifting northward. Here's our cold front. This is going to come through around 10 11:00 at night. What we have to watch out for is this area right here over I would say the next two hours.
After 6:00 p.m., our instability naturally declines. I think that the potential here for tornadoes begins to fall off along with severe thunderstorms and we transition more to heavy rain and strong winds with more of a isolated severe thunderstorm threat rather than widespread severe thunderstorm threat.
So we're seeing that very nicely now.
And you can see the thunderstorm line with the cold front starting to organize, starting to get us act together.
Closer to home, there is our steady thunderstorms. And again, I'm keeping an eye on this cell right now. Don't really see other cells really taking shape.
Watch out maybe for Lancaster. This could be infant here. So, one infant, two, this line right here, potential for uh a spin up, but right now it's pretty much just straight line winds.
Check out premium guys. And uh can you expect negative numbers again?
Minus 5, etc. I think that's exactly what's happening in Mammoth County. Yes, it's early enough that we're we are able to see that rebound. I mean, I'm already up 2° since since the rain ended.
Um, it's 191 in Queens in terms of the air quality. Not good. Uh, besides the maritime air mass around New York City, does the substance play a factor in limiting severe thunderstorms in northeast New Jersey, New York City due to the severe thunderstorms in Philadelphia and southern New Jersey? It definitely plays a factor at least for now. That doesn't remain in ca the case for the entire event. The reason why we see a limitation is because of this environment here. But this environment is not due to the thunderstorm development. This environment is due to just a maritime air mass putting up a fight against the warm front. Now, part of this, as always with weather, really comes down to timing. Okay, this instability will push into southern New England, but it will do so after the peak heating time period, and we'll start to see a um excuse me, it's all this dust and stuff in the air. Pardon me. Um we will see a decline in the instability throughout the entire region. This is why really much of western and central and southern New Jersey is really reaping the best potential for tornadoes here and also southeastern Pennsylvania because we're reaching out. We're reaching a nice cross-section.
>> Thank you.
Thank you. Um between the potential for for tornatic uh conditions. In fact, here I'm going to try something. I normally don't get a chance to use these multiffactors up here in the northeast, especially in the northern Atlantic, but let's see if we have tornatic.
Yeah, so this is really rare to use.
Typically, we use this a lot like in in the like Oklahoma, Texas, the southeast.
Uh this is a uh significant tornado parameter uh where it takes the cape uh whether there's any instability and also shear potential. And you could see that it's focused here in central and southern New Jersey especially just over southern Ocean County through uh Burlington County. Okay. So we're seeing that focus here. Let's try another.
Again, this is really rare to be able to use because typically we don't have the conditions uh to support such uh an environment. Uh let's see effective.
Here's a new one. Significant tornado.
Again, this is a significant tornado parameter. Okay, so within an effective inflow layer, so the the structure of the thunderstorm, right? So, we're talking about the structure of the thunderstorm and whether or not we have a favorable environment uh with the instability in the atmosphere.
And as you can see here, you have a nice focus right off. So, maybe some water spouts, but look at this focus over central nut. Again, this is incredibly rare to have this play out to be able to use these these parameters to kind of get an idea of where to focus. And I haven't looked at these yet, but I'm looking at them live for the first time with you guys. Um, so you can see that focus. Southeastern Pennsylvania, central southern New Jersey. Let's try another one.
Uh, hail parameter. See what that looks like. Well, that's definitely throughout the entire region.
Let's see if we have any other classic bulk shear.
So again, another focus from the southern Midland from basically the Washington DC metro up through to Philadelphia metro and sunset from southern New Jersey. So you're seeing this combination of these factors all showing up. Very nice. So well, not nice. It's not not something I'd want to see.
That is for sure. And again, again, we align our super water gradient here where our thunderstorms capable to train on this. And then combine that now we have to watch out for, and this is where things get really complicated where we start to watch out for outflow boundaries interacting with these individual storms, turning winds. The best thing we could have set up is more linear storm structures like what we're seeing here in Baltimore. That kills your tornado threat and really lines up more with straight line wind threats.
So, what we're seeing here around Baltimore, that's a good sign here for limiting tornado threats. Um, but still, I'm concerned about this one out here.
So, maybe in uh Delaware, we could start to back off and still look for more straight line wind threats.
And then here we have our prefrontal trough focusing in on thunderstorms.
Again, this is where we're going to start to get things very interesting to the south of that warm front that's rapidly lifting to the northeast. And again, you can see the winds here all shifting. Now, it gets a little bit more funky with these thunderstorms. You got this northwesterly wind because this is behind the thunderstorm with the winds coming out from at the surface. So that's your down burst wind gust showing up here, but you can see the overall theme.
Very interesting stuff. Let's take a look at live chat and see what we have here. Uh why doesn't the rain improve the air quality? It takes time. This smoke is like molasses in the atmosphere. It's kind of sticky. It doesn't clear out very very quickly. You have to clear out the entire air mass and the warm front if anything is enhancing the air mass. So bless you.
When the coldront blows through, we're going to be aligning with a different air mass that's cleaner and basically allow to shut this uh whole um transport of smoke down a bit and give us a bit of a break.
Does the prefrontal trough persist present a threat for northern parts of New Jersey and New York City metro? Yes, in terms of and this is where I probably would have done a severe thunderstorm watch for now and then and then cut it off uh after we see what happens with the warm front when the when the prefrontal trough and the cold front they're going to actually catch up as we move through because they're going to be dropping through the Appalachian Mountains. going to be a bit of a of a lag and the trough is going to be literally almost right just right ahead of the cold front. But that thunderstorm line is going to feature uh straight line wind gusts. So the tornado threat will be dead, but the the potential for wind gusts easily pushing over 40 miles per hour and possibly an isolated cell or two pushing 55 miles per hour cannot be ruled out. Now, the one thing that is favorable for Northern New Jersey and New York City is that a lot of that is going to be happening well after this live coverage. So, we're talking like 9, 10, 11:00 at night. Um, where you're going to have lower instability.
Uh, your your lifting index is going to really collapse even over over in favorable areas right now. And you're going to have more of a very heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong and and strong wind gusts, but not necessarily widespread severe thunderstorms.
But I understand why they didn't do it because of the instability in place right now. Is there a magic temperature that will kill or enhance instability over the next few hours? Okay. So, that's a great question because what you're kind of talking about, what you're touching on is the convective temperature. Okay. Which we have already exceeded. Okay. Um, in central New Jersey, much of Pennsylvania, um, usually, let's see here. In fact, let's see if we can pull up, let's pull up a sounding here in New York City. Okay.
Now you see this signal right here. This is what's killing your thunderstorm threat in northeastern New Jersey and in New York City metro and Long Island. This right here is a stable air mass. What you need for your convective temperature is to jump up to 91 degrees. Now notice in Philadelphia your convective temperature is 89 degrees.
Your temperature is uh on this sounding is 88. Let's see what the current observations are. It's at 91.
So we've already broken our convective temperature. So, the best way to find this, and again, it's really easy to find on Weatherfront, which you know, hat tap, hat tap to tip to those guys.
Um, out. And by the way, we're up to 76 now in in Freehold. Temperatures are really jumping now. Um, but you can see the setup here in Philadelphia metro and s in southwestern New Jersey. We've exceeded a convective temperature. Okay, based on observations. So now we've gotten to that point where we support the thunderstorms in Long Island.
We're nowhere near the convective temperature is 90 and we're nowhere near it. We're at 70. That creates very stable environment. And you could also see this. See, when you have your skew T like this in the atmosphere, okay, this sets up a very stable environment. But notice how it's saturated. Notice your precipit.
So you still have a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. all the way up to 500 millibars. So when that cold front moves through later on this evening, not severe thunderstorms, but again another round of flash flooding would not be surprised. I would not be surprised by that at all. And this is the prefrontal trough and then the cold front back to the west.
Let's see if I'm hearing reports that the radar might be down again, which would really really stink. The uh radar in Philadelphia.
Let's see.
Let's double check that, shall we? Let's see.
Jersey.
Here we are. Okay. DixIx looks like it's okay.
This is has Oh, no it's not. It's down again. Wouldn't you know it, it's 409.
It's only coming in at 409. The data is of course 430. So, uh yeah. Oh well.
Let's try a different radar then. Um college Well, it's not as good, but let's see if we have any signal here showing up of any type of No indications of tornadoes yet. So, that's good. That's good sign.
Not as good of a radar, though. That is disappointing. Not surprising, but disappointing.
So, right now we have our severe thunderstorm watch out here or warning should say around Tom's River. Very heavy rainfall, a lot of lightning, uh, but no sign of any type of rotation.
Let's see if we have any lowle rotation at all. Nothing showing up. Mid-level rotation. mid-level rotation. You can see tornatic potential or or mess scale low. Nothing showing up there.
So, that's good.
Um, see, lightning echo tops.
So, the good news, what we could take for this right now is so far no tornadoes have have verified plenty of severe thunderstorms. Um, very heavy rainfall.
It's pushing about 4:36, almost 5:00.
Let's see if we got any indication of anything that would stand out as being significant.
Let's see. Oh, here we are. Let's see if we got any new data from HRR.
I cannot believe DIX is down again.
That's crazy. Welcome to all the new viewers, by the way. It's a pleasure to have you guys join.
And there's a lot of there's a lot of stuff on X. So, let me jump on that as well.
Wow. Okay.
So, thank you. I want to learn read weather.
And as far as the the public uh questions, I I don't answer all of them because some of them are repetitive or some of them I've already covered.
Um what's the deal with county? Okay, so we covered that. Uh lots of cloud cover, not too much heating.
Okay, let's see. So, a lot of this stuff I've thankfully I've already covered, so that's good.
See the sun out now.
Central supposed to be headed to City Field. We covered that.
I cannot believe DIX is down again. That ticks me off.
Let's see.
So, let's see. This is roughly at 5:15.
So based on the HRR guidance over the next 45 minutes, we should see if we're going to see a tornado threat, it is going to pan out in southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey over the next 30 to 40 minutes. This is after the watch is expired. So once this clears out, if we see anything take shape, it is going to be between now and 6 pm in the areas that we've highlighted. Central New Jersey, southern New Jersey, southeastern Pennsylvania. Then we have our cold front line which comes through after 8:00, which by the way is panning out beautifully with the forecast that I issued and put the timestamps on in the public discussion. This has worked out beautifully in that respect. Um, then we get the cold front. This cold front though, when it drops through, it's dropping through when our instability is basically dying out.
And we have certainly enough support for downburst wind gust. So maybe you could get an isolated thunderstorm via downburst wind gust reaching severe levels. But the key word there is isolated pretty much. then you're dealing with uh very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Now, if you're out towards like City Field, I know they're having a concert. Um I'd be worried about City Field only because of the lightning, lot of metal, people playing electrical instruments, it's City Field, you know, I don't know how long this concert goes, but if it's going on at like 10:00 at night, um you might want to be wor keep an eye on that. and then the cold front pretty much collapses.
So, at least the line of thunderstorms collapses. So, I think based on what we're seeing here, based on the observations and also the model data here, um I'm not going to use the RRFS.
I don't trust it. I'm sorry. I just don't. Um, based on what I'm seeing here, if we're going to see a tornado and thus how long we go with this live coverage, um, is going to start to pan.
It's going to start to show up or fail, uh, over the next hour.
Okay? In the next hour, we'll know whether or not this is a verified event or hopefully not verified at all.
Now, we do have if we we're looking at one tornado warning. It's way out of the forecast area that's out here in central Pennsylvania.
Actually, it's about to attack our groundhog front.
Um, there there is there it is.
So, let's take a look at what that looks like on the radar here.
Rotation.
There we go. There's our signal midle, too. So, it's pretty well established.
So, there's our rotation starting to set up here with our tornado. Unfortunately, we don't have the radar data that we need.
Let's see what else.
So you can see clearly in the radar signature that tornatic signal right here is textbook especially around the Appalachian. Not bad at all.
So you can see this is this would give you your tornado warning. Your tornado's probably right about here. Your hell shaft is right in here. The whole thunderstorm's dropping south. it is.
And this is all part of the cold fronts back here. This is the prefrontal trough. And so this is the type of signal that we're going to watch out for over the next couple over the next hour or so for us down here and see if we have anything showing. So far, nothing. You got one solid line here that's marching through and then by the time all this convection gets to us, we're talking about like nine o'clock at night. So, no. Um, so that's certainly good news.
Okay. In in terms of our area so far, what we've seen for the most part is very heavy rainfall and some strong wind gusts, but not the severe thunderstorm, not the uh tornado threat that looked like it was it was getting a bit nasty there. And this is why with live coverage, it's kind of tricky to kind of pull this off. Um because more times than not in this neck of the woods, thankfully, we do not see a verification of tornadoes very very often.
a lot of radar based stuff, but it's kind of hard to pull it off because of our environment. And if you're wondering, well, what is it about our environment?
First of all, you have this stable air mass in place right along the coast here. So, any type of southerntherly or southeasterly wind really kind of hurts your sounding setup here for for severe thunderstorms or tornatic profiles.
That's the first problem. Second, you have the orographic problem. Typically, tornadoes like, you know, level ground.
Don't they don't like mountains, okay?
You could pull it off sometimes, but typically they don't. So, in that scenario, your best potential for your tornadoes is typically right here. Okay?
You're far enough away from the ocean, you have a unstable atmosphere, and everything everything lines up really nicely here. Now, what's interesting now is the urban heat island effect, especially around the Philadelphia metro and just to the western New York City metro. So, this area right here, which also happens to fall under a tornado watch right now, because of the urban heat effect, this leads to an enhancement of warmer air, which leads to rising motion, which enhances your thunderstorms and increases the potential for tornadoes. So that's why you typically end up with a better potential. And we've seen an increase in tornado activity uh in central and southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania over the past couple of years because we're building more on the I95 corridor and on Route 9. I all you got to do is ride up and down and that leads to more low-level heat and that low-level heat leads to enhancement of convection. This also becomes an issue with winter storms. When we're watching convective development within a snowstorm in the convective snowbands, uh you typically start to see them lining up in this area, this area, and this area. So, just something to uh monitor and keep an eye on. Temperature has gone down with some cloud cover in South Brunswick, 74.5.
Wouldn't you know unknown reason onx national weather service I know the reason that radar is cursed that's the reason tornado >> central p >> Philadelphia so far we haven't had any there's nothing in Philadelphia there's certainly showers and thunderstorms there is a tornado warning for the Mets as I just seen Kodi Sigma is now pitching so now you.
Congratulations, Phillies. You just won the game.
That's a tornado warning. But there's no actual tornado warning uh around the Philadelphia metro right now. Uh certainly possibly a severe thunderstorm warning on the way, especially with a storm that is lifting up through Wilmington, but there's no tornadoes or anything around Philadelphia.
Nothing. I'm sure there's barely a cell at this point.
Uh, the Yankees will play. Whether Yankee fans will be happy about that, it's a different story.
But yeah, I think they'll play. You'll be right in that window in between this warm front and the um and these thunderstorms that are moving through and the main line that comes through later on. Um, so I believe they start at 8:00. So they should be able they should be able to get to a point where it's a it's it counts after the fifth inning.
Um and then if they have any long inning after the fifth inning, then that could be a situation where thunderstorms are rolling in at 10 and that could be where you're running into some issues. But I think you'll actually get an actual real a game in set up.
>> Yeah.
>> Somebody saying are they saying KDX radar.
>> That would be Wow.
I'm seeing that now. Yeah, >> that would be that would make sense.
That would do it. That I mean, like I said, that radar is cursed. I mean, if there's a chance for it to go down, it always does.
>> I think a good reason would be getting struck by >> Yeah. Well, I had I had one time where a a literally a flock of birds took out the radar.
Flock of birds hit like one of the uh parts.
>> I'll give them a pass on that one, too.
>> Let's see here. Wow, we have people from Florida.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh hey, Steve. Looks like most of the downpours and lightning strikes for us here. That's okay with me. Tornadoes are highly overrated.
Yeah, I would I I I would prefer not to have a tornado.
Someone's a Phillies fan and congratulations. You just won. I'm I don't care what happens. Kodai is singing you. This is when Kodai pitches for the Mets. That's like the white flag. All right, we give up. That's it.
Um, I'm not really expecting, you know, in Connecticut, you're in that stable environment that we were talking about. Um, let me pull.
Where are you? Ah, here we are. Okay.
So, let me go back to our instability here.
Here we are. Boom. Okay, so Connecticut, you're in that stable environment. So, you're pretty much going to be dealing with the cold front later on this evening. Uh, and we're more like towards midnight.
Showers, you might hear some rumble of thunderstorms, but nothing nothing severe. I think that uh mostly again, your severe threat is pretty much focused down here down uh down towards the Philadelphia metro and uh southern New See, I told you he's just walking the bases. I I told you Kodi Sigma there literally is a tornado warning literally for any any type of winning baseball team. I know I told you guys.
You guys act like as if I don't know my own team. I know exactly what's happening. The minute I saw him, I'm like game over.
>> Yeah. Even when you say I'm not watching, I still catch you watching.
>> I'm still watching. I'm just not watching with as much. I don't curse as much. That's the difference.
>> Yeah, not out loud because I'm I'm already done with it.
Uh, let me go check to make sure I got everything answered with premium members. Duh. Uh, let's see here. Word about Sandy Hook to M talk. That's a possibility. Absolutely. Um, just want to say thanks again for hopping on to do the live chat, knowing that you're supporting your mom through her recover.
Well, I'm not supporting her. I'm just keeping her keeping an eye on her. Um, the reason why we didn't do live chat on Wednesday is because I had no clue what to expect and I didn't want to do live coverage and like my dad calling me up in the middle of it and like saying, "Hey, this happened at the hospital."
You know what I mean? So, that probably would not be. Luckily, everything worked out great. Okay? And if mom and dad are watching right now, mom, you're not supposed to be doing anything. Dad's supposed to do everything. Okay. So, we'll talk to Mart and follow the doctor's orders. Exactly. Uh, let's see.
Rob Allen. Hi, Stephen. Currently on standby in the firehouse up in Middleton. Uh, we have heavy sin to our north. Yes, that's true. and fairly clear skies to our south. Are we still looking at severe threat with enough time to clear later? Trying to determine for extension. Thanks. Okay, Rob.
Um, let me make sure he's still in there. So, let me go make sure there is that threat um for severe thunderstorms. I say until about 6 7 p.m. for you guys, okay? But anything beyond that, no.
Best thing that can happen to the Yankees is to end it by rain in the sixth inning. There you go. When do clouds clear for tomorrow? Uh, roughly around 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. You'll see strong clearing.
Hey, they got out of it and it's only down by three. It's a miracle.
Maybe a rainbow will show up over uh over the stadium.
Uh, let's see here. What else do we have here? We have a lot of stuff here. I'm really impressed with the number of people.
Thank you. What can I say? Usually severe weather. What do you know?
Usually severe weather is not a huge deal in the northern M. Now, snow definitely, even if it's changing to rain because everyone's got to drive in it.
I think I would I would say replace the radar, but I don't think that they have the funding for it, unfortunately.
Just making sure I got everyone covered here.
And let's check on the radar and see if we have anything new.
So, we have our next our primary line that knocked this down for a minute is now pushing off the coast.
Wouldn't be surprised we get a worse spot out here. Um, let's see here. We had a wind report wires down at the intersection of Orchid Street and Union. Uh, time estimated by radar.
Of course, we have our flash flood warning around there. Plenty of rainfall.
Lot of lightning showing up down towards southeastern Pennsylvania.
Uh trees down across Hills Crest Drive, trees down across Blair Road.
We still have our severe thunderstorm watch. So, thus far, I'm very happy to say thus far, we have not verified uh many uh any tornadoes within the tornado watch.
which is >> yeah that is something we do not want ver when it comes to this now the tornado watch is a moderate chance 5050 um the high wind watch that's where it's really high at 80%.
At 60 miles per hour um EF2 plus tornadoes very low at 20%. Yeah, I'd put that even lower than that. Um, so really we're dealing with like F-Zero, F1s.
Those are like very very they're weak tornadoes, usually like 90, 80 mile per hour winds, stuff like that, still do a bit of damage, but it's not like what you would see. It's not total. All right. It's not the Wizard of Oz or anything of that nature.
Let's see.
Going to cover as much as I can.
I'm just trying to get an idea of where we're at in terms of HRR guidance.
Let's see the new 19Z's out. So, let's see what it's saying. So, yeah, again, between basically we're moving into the 5:00 hour to the six o'clock hour.
That's where if we're going to see something, this is going to be the hour that we see it. So, with this line that's showing up here, okay, which is this starting to form here, this this cluster here.
If this lines up, that's where we see the severe thunderstorm potential and the tornado potential.
After that, by the time this line approaches, your instability falls off and you no longer have any severe. In fact, look at this. Now, at like 11:00 tonight, the ra the radar, I mean, the uh model data just has the thunderstorms completely collapsing. This is a sign of the instability falling off.
So, that's what that's showing. Again, you never take this verbatim like you don't say like oh well this cell will produce a tornado. You don't say that.
What you do with this is that okay based on all the parameters and we can go through all the parameters. Uh let's see here.
Let's see. So we had the precipitable water values in this setup.
So the precipitable water values this evening. This opens up the potential here that definitely heavy downpours, definitely frequent lightning. So that's certainly at play here. Uh our cape values and you can see by 8:00 you're dead. So if this is going to pan out, it is going to be between five and six cuz after six it falls apart as far as our instability.
So really, we got I'm I'm going to put this I'm going to say this. Probably we will probably be able to pull off an end of live coverage at six o'clock based based on what I'm seeing here.
Based on on the the data I'm seeing here that if >> yes, we could watch we could baby, you know what we could do? We could watch the 1986 Mets.
Okay. Well, it was >> But it was we have our plans, but hey, we could watch A6 bets, too.
Let's see here. So, yeah, that that's a huge signal there with this new data.
That tells me a lot because then after that, I mean, look where we're at at like at uh 10 o'clock tonight. Not very impressive.
So, let's see. Significant tornado. So, this is a parameter we typically don't aren't able to use.
Let's see what that looks like after 6:00.
Yeah, it falls off rapidly.
Interesting. It should there's a nice burst around uh the Hudson River Valley on the data. Now, that is interesting.
But that's at 10:00 at night. So, um, probably more sheer. You know what that's probably for? I bet you there's a jet streak.
So, let's see. 850 mibar. Do they have a Here we are. winds.
Yeah, there it is.
That's where the Mald is getting that from.
And that's in a stable region. So, you can negate that. You could chop that off.
This is why you look at all the data and not just one particular zone. So, what do we have set up? Basically, if we're going to see anything with this tornado based on the HR guidance and based on the observations we're seeing right here, is going to be within the next 60 to 90 minutes.
Okay.
um yeah, that's what I'm seeing here. I'm not seeing any signals of of anything beyond that because by the time this gets here, our instability just crashes.
Let's see if there's anything out here.
Flood the right. Uh let's see here.
A lot of good questions here. Uh variable clouds and some some some peaks of sun, temperature 77.
Uh very little going on right now. Radar is fairly clean in and around Northampton County, Pennsylvania. Um which is worse in your opinion, flash flooding or snow for driving?
I think flooding because a lot of people assume that they could drive through the flood waters and people take snow more seriously, but they they tend to underestimate flooding. So, I think that's more dangerous. Flood threat diminishing in Union County. Uh, no, not yet. Still a lot of water in the atmosphere even with the declining instability. So I think with the cold front moving through I still would be concerned about flash flooding and urban flooding especially in your flood p floodprone uh areas setting up dinner will dinner be on later. Yeah, we're definitely going to some weather influencers. Oh god, here we go. On social media and a few meteorologists were mentioning potential for a duratio.
No, not no not in this setup. This is totally not that that uh setup for this.
That is no way. Um was there ever support for it? No. No.
No. There never was. I don't know what influencer was saying that, but no, that was never there.
There was never a threat for that further. There was never even if there's going to be a threat for it, you know that the National Weather Service is going to and especially the SPC, they're going to really play that out. Um because that would be a significant um concern. The atmospheric conditions just were not there for that.
Who the hell would say that?
I I know. I I won't I won't I won't. No.
All right. Uh let's see here. Back on uh Twitch. See temperature down Brunswick 74.5. Okay. Hey, just want to say hello everyone on Twitch for I know there's a couple of viewers out there. Thank you.
And of course on YouTube and on X. Thank you very much. Huh.
>> Yeah, I think uh it knocked him out. Uh let's see here.
Looks like activity popping up.
Philadelphia, Burks. Um, let's see.
Let's go back to the radar again. I mean, we should see some activity start to break, start to pop up here.
In fact, here, let me do something here.
Settings real fast.
Just going to try and take out the if there's a way to take out the watches.
Store ports mears alerts. No, it doesn't look like it. That's okay.
I'll have to play with that later. No worries.
So, right now I'm not really seeing anything. Even that line, this is the line that that was showing up on the HRR.
This right here. So, we certainly have a nice bow echo. And we have a nice severe thunderstorm warning. Winds 60 miles per hour. Very nice bow echo moving into the Delm Marva Peninsula heading towards Delaware.
Um, you could sometimes get a tornado to spin up on the south side and north side, but normally on the south side of a bow echo. So, we'll keep an eye on that.
>> Some people are just starting to come up to like the whole like thing is down.
>> Yeah, >> struck by lightning.
>> Yeah, lightning. Lightning took it out.
Zeus took it out.
Oh, I'm not going to go over winter weather predictions yet. Not for this one. No. in July. You know it. Uh KDIX got Zeus took it out. That's a good one. Yeah.
Let's see. Anything on X? You seem like a good guy. But why BMS fan? That that's that's from when I was a little kid.
Anyone who's a baseball, anyone who's a sports fan understands that sometimes you do not pick your team, your team picks you, you know, like it's just like an emotional thing. So, and anyone who's who's an actual fan of any sport, whether it's football, baseball, Jets fans would understand this. You don't just um stop being a fan, even though it's it's like a it's like a very weird relationship.
Um, based on what I'm seeing, they might get clipped with some of these storms. It's a sixth inning. You got Kodai pitching.
Uh, you might actually end the game early or get into a delay because he's going to be walking the park. So, not necessarily something with the Phillies, but yeah, he just he actually threw a strike, but he's three and two. So, he's going to walk the park, which especially with Schwab or maybe Schwarber will hit a home run. Um, but the problem you have is that he's going to walk the park and that's going to delay the game and that's going to allow these showers and thunderstorms to invade uh the ballpark.
So, yeah. Yeah. See, he just walked them.
Told you. So that of course was not a good sign for the for the whole Phillies game. But the way that this line's marching, there's a good chance that the brunt of this is going to stay south of Philly. And I'm pretty much going to at this point based on what I'm seeing right now, uh we'll have to watch out this cell for central New Jersey.
See if anything comes of this one to the south of Trenton.
But other than that, I'm going to have to say that this line right here, if you're in southern New Jersey over the next hour, like we're entering the 5:00 hour between now and let's say about 6:10.
This line, if it's going to produce a tornado, it's going to be with this line. And right now, I'm not ready.
Right now, I'm seeing more of a straight line wind, downburst wind gust. You see the bow echo here showing up here in Maryland. That's the primary threat that's showing up here. I'm not seeing a lot of tornado signals. And then this line right here that actually is producing a tornado out here in central Pennsylvania. This line out here outside of the forecast area. Okay. Um, this will be reaching us after 6:00, more likely around 8:00 when our instability is crashing and the line just starts weakening.
So, that reduces your tornado threat obviously and even severe thunderstorm threat. I still can't rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm though.
jump around.
If the extreme severe event does not pan out, what can you attribute it to? Okay.
Uh, great question. Are there current observations that give us clues? Okay.
So, first of all, to pull off a tornado in this region is difficult. Now, we've had we had all we have all the ingredients. You had the veering winds, all that stuff. Problem is that I mentioned this yesterday. We have a lot of ground clutter around here. What I mean by that is you have a lot of cloud cover around. You have a lot lot of potential to inhibit instability. Um, and because you have so many thunderstorms around in the area, sometimes what happens because again, we're not in the plains, so it's a different scenario. When you have all this activity, it can kind of crush other activity, other development.
So, the thunderstorms don't mature. And so, that can that can inhibit or limit some of that development. So, we have so much activity going on here that that could be a limiting factor. Okay. The other factor is that we just have a lot of cloud cover around.
See here, right here, you can see what I mean. There's a lot of cloud cover here.
So, that could be a factor as well. That could really limit you as well. So, it's it's hard to pull off these these uh these events. It's kind of like a all or nothing type scenario. Like I said, by the way, this is a tropical disturbance.
I don't buy that it's going to develop at that much of anything. So, I know that you probably already seen some people call it a tropical storm. It's not even a tropical depression or disturb. It's barely a disturbance. Um so, there's that. Uh, so this right here.
Oh, it's six to one, by the way.
Congrat. I told you. I told you guys.
Where did I tell Oh, they threw the ball away.
Nice. Uh, see this signal right here?
See all these thunderstorms in in in Virginia and Maryland? See all this all this uh convection here? This right here will limit you in central and southern New Jersey. Then the cold fronts back here we already talked about. This right here is another factor. So as we go forward based on the observations that we're seeing, based on the alignment here that we're seeing, I am I'm I think probably this is going to be our last hour. I think six o'clock is our last hour. I don't see this panning out as far as tornadoes thus far. Um, what I do see is that this line right here, if you are in, um, this part of southwest New Jersey, like around Binland, if you're around Atlantic City, uh, still around Ocean County, uh, Burlington County, right in this area here, I'd watch out for this line producing a lot of lightning, very heavy rainfall. I think the worst is over for central New Jersey. I'm going to put a cap on Mammoth County. Just keep an eye on this one. I think Morris and and Middle Sex are pretty much done.
Northern New Jersey, I think you're pretty much done. And then we have this line back here that we're going to see coming through later on this evening based on everything that I'm seeing here. Uh this line right here, I think that the tornadic threat is pretty much nil. Um still severe thunderstorm threat. I like that. Uh the watch here is going to 9:00 p.m. as well. So basically, National Weather Service is recognizing basically as we head between 7 and 9:00 p.m. of the collapse of the instability. And that's also showing up very nicely here on our model on our model guide. So this is the new HRR that just came out.
It's updating. This is brand new data and showing the same thing. Cape values just crash out. So we lose our instability.
We lose our our support. We have enough support for thunderstorms, just not severe thunderstorms.
So, and certainly not tornatic thunderstorms.
And let me pull up simulated radar just so you can get an idea what that looks like. There is our line that we that we're watching right now.
And then here's our cold front.
So, I'd still say you still have a shot for severe thunderstorms. I think the tornadic threat is is rapidly coming to an end. Now, in terms of the environment here, let's take a look at the sounding for southern New Jersey.
And we still have that tornado signal.
Certainly plenty of instability. Your cape is at 4570 jewels per kilogram. So what that basically means is that u you got some nitroglycerin to work with here.
Plenty of moisture to work with. Pretty impressive uh setup in that respect. Again, this is for southern New Jersey. Uh you have your winds are strong enough. Good hot here. So you certainly have your tornado signal showing up. Um, maybe like an F0, something of that nature. Um, let's see. Yeah.
Yeah. So, if you're going to see something, it's going to be in the next hour in this area. So, that's what we're going to be watching for right here with this line. This is weakening. This right here has nothing to feed on because this line is taking all the energy in the atmosphere. So everything around Baltimore pushing to the south of Philadelphia. So you have a sh you probably get clipped with some heavy rain if you're at the Phillies game.
I don't really see anything north of Philadelphia right now. I think I think right here this area. Let me see if I can draw that. Uh I think they got a pen option here. So let me see if I can Let's see. Ah, I want to make this very clear.
This is right here. Okay. So, if you are in this area right here, if we're going to see a tornado, it's going to be in this area over the next hour or so.
After that, I think everything just crashes out. So, this is what we're going to be watching for most likely with the way that we're seeing the uh winds here.
Let me just clear this out here. Okay.
So, one the most likely what we're going to see with these thunderstorms is more of the straight line winds. Watch out for see this bow echo right here. See that right there? Okay, that right there is where we have the potential here for some pretty strong winds playing out.
Let's see if we have any rotation anywhere showing up.
So far, no. So far, we don't Yeah, I mean I got the uh instant rotation signal here. Mid-level rotation. Nothing really showing up.
Nothing too strong.
a little bit of signal certainly uh with the downburst wind gusts, but thus far I'm just not seeing anything that would suggest uh strong winds.
How should I say tornatic winds, pardon me, as we as we saw not too long ago, straight line winding gusts can cause a lot of damage. Yes, that is very true.
Let me jump around. Take a look what we have here on social media on uh X Delaware. I'm more concerned about the straight line wind gusts. Watch out for straight line wind gust over 60 miles per hour, especially with that thunderstorm heading towards Dover.
um on YouTube.
Uh bit ironic that New Jersey utilities were weren't so prepared for July 4th tetors, but got super prepared with dozens of crews from PA and New Jersey staged in many hotels all over New Jersey ready to go. Um yeah, I'm not sure why both both have potential here.
Uh Harford is fine. I think Harford will be fine. No severe weather. Certainly some thunderstorms late tonight with Cape that high. Anyone in the warn area below Philadelphia should be ready to move to shelter. Oh yeah, definitely.
Yeah, I mean I definitely would be um Yankees are rained out tonight. They they rained Wait, they did they already cancelled the game?
Really? Did they already do that?
I mean, I'm not against it. It's not a bad idea.
Uh, yeah, they postponed it. It must be a double header. That's funny. Good for them.
Hey, you know what? I would say that's a smart move by them.
See? So, here's the line.
Now we see whether or not we get um it's pretty strong lifting here. Pretty strong DBS DBZ should I say. Watch this one. This one's coming in for So, this one coming into Mammoth County looks like it's just a strong thunderstorm. probably another round of rainfall. And we have another cell right here, right behind it.
Nothing really showing up as severe pulling down towards the Philadelphia metro.
Uh looks like the worst of it staying to the south of Philadelphia is currently just slamming Willington right now. But again, I have not seen any indication of anything right now.
Plenty of bow echoes down through the Delm Marva.
And then as we zoom out further to the west, we do have a mess of scale discussion.
Let's see if there's anything. Uh let's see.
Uh severe threat composite warmf frontont reinforced convective outflow extends from central New Jersey into east central Pennsylvania which we've been covering. Thunderstorms are northern boundary likely slow and northward progress. We've seen that greatest supercell potential along and south the warm front in eastern Maryland, Delaware, southern central New Jersey. So we generally have seen that but we haven't seen any type of development beyond that. So what this tells us is that hey the potential is there but it just isn't being maximized at all. And if it was going to be maximized we're we're into 520 right now.
If it's going to happen it's going to happen with this line.
So what the technical discussion was basically saying was um the environment is favorable from basically Mammoth down through Delaware.
Mamemoth County right here down through Delaware. Okay. So right in this area here if it's going to happen it's going to be this line and it's going to be these cells. Now you're seeing one cell that is firing up very quickly heading into southern Mammoth County right now.
Okay, heading towards, let's see here. It looks like it's tracking towards just north of Bloomstead, heading towards Jackson Township, Milstone, possibly Clip and Freo Township later on.
But this structure is not one of a tornado of a tornadic thunderstorm. It just isn't not that type of structure.
Possibly some downburst winds, certainly plenty of lightning. Same thing with this one. wrong structure.
Now, uh let's see if we still have the tornadic thunderstorm. We don't. But oh, here we are. Now, this is a tornado. Okay. Now, take a look at this is in central Pennsylvania.
There's your rotation. Very clear. Okay.
You have a couple of areas where we have pretty good rotation.
Look at the structure of this.
That's a tornadic structure. Okay. So, you have classic tornatic structure here.
We don't have anything like that showing up by us. We have certainly a bow echo sign of very strong winds moving into northern Delaware. in central Delaware.
Uh southern Delaware, not much, but could be a couple of severe thunderstorms.
Central New Jersey, we have that one cell that is not tornatic. And this right here is lining up more for straight line wind gusts.
And again, to take a look at the rotation potential, look to see if we have any type of low-level rotation. And as you can see, not much really showing up. Could be a little signal down here in central Delaware, but again, this the structure is more of a straight line winds, but this is at the end of that straight line wind, but we're talking about the southern end of a bow echo. Sometimes you can get a mess low and get a tornado trying to form. So, possibly around uh central Delaware, we might be watching that take shape.
But nothing nothing at all shown up anything like that around our neck woods in southern New Jersey, central New Jersey, or southeastern Pennsylvania, which is good news. It's what we want to see.
Just got in from taking garbage bag to the dumpster. Sun's out. is hazy and getting hotter. Uh we may not get severe thunderstorms tonight, but the air is primed for heavy rainfall. I agree.
Yeah, that's true. The Fox people are probably ticked off, but hey, they could always get Mitch Phillies. that uh let's see if we have let me jump back to the radar and see if we got anything in social media.
Uh let's see.
Let's zoom out on central New York. That makes sense. Central New York seeing plenty of thunderstorms, severe thunderstorms based on the cold front that is getting ready to move through.
Let's see here.
Can't see the map due to the mess scale window. Okay, we have to figure out how to turn that off.
Oh, hold it. That's still on here.
Wonder why it's still on.
Let me try to refresh.
H one minute.
There it is. Fixed.
Sometimes it's the little things. I had to refresh the uh the video format. For some reason, it was blocked. That's weird.
Wow, we have a lot of people watching.
5.8,000 watching on X. Wow.
Holy smokes.
Wow. Well, hello everyone.
That That's pretty good, right? I guess.
What?
Uh, let's see. So, right now here, let me get this up and running again.
Let's play. Okay, so right now I am not seeing a tornado threat out of this right now. I really, really am not. This is collapsing around southeastern Pennsylvania around Lancaster. So that's not looking impressive. So we're going to zoom in on this line right here. If we see a tornado, it's going to come out of this based on all the model data. All the storms off to the west here, these all approach here after 9:00. Um generally after our instability is collapsed and ended. So this is basically it. If we see that tornado threat, it's going to come from this.
Other than that, everyone else, there's nothing here. It's almost It's 5:30 right now. Between 5:30 and 9, this is not getting anywhere near this isn't really developing all that much. We're not seeing any type of cumulus development. You can see all the convection, all the alignment is down here towards the southern mid-Atlantic in terms of instab in ter of of maximizing the convective potential. As far as cloud cover, we're not seeing any type of, you know, growth of of any clearing to further destabilize the atmosphere.
Uh, in terms of instability, now we have a lot more sin factors here.
We're seeing us starting to see a decline in from what we were seeing earlier. We're starting to see a decline in our lifting index. Let's take a look at the cape.
surfacebased cape. We're starting to see a lot more of that rain cooled air influence, a lot of sin uh capping on the atmosphere.
We still have the best potential here.
Very impressive, but not as strong. It's clearly declining. Of course, New York City, you're getting influenced by that stable environment. Southern New England, you're good. Connecticut, you're good.
The one thing that has remained sustained is the precipitable water value. So, if there's one threat here that's staying sustained even with the cold front later on tonight is the potential for heavy rainfall. And hey, look at that. The Phillies are getting rained on by a lot.
Just saw that. And still Yep.
need to bring something up. You >> see places people bringing up that this is uh you know basically nothing overheight blah blah blah.
>> Nobody should be wanting tornado warnings to verify.
>> Well yeah I would want that.
>> I'll put it this way. I'm doing this live coverage on my weekend when I should be relaxing. I with I was concerned enough based on the observations to say okay I better do live coverage on this just in case. So the potential is there it just is not maximizing which is great news. We certainly have that flooding potential still here with your precipit values. Um, and I am happy to say if this isn't going to pan out here, and again, this signal here, I would not be surprised if we get a tornado uh, warning that could possibly pop up with this line here in Delaware.
That's that's probably my best bet. We have this other line here. So, this bow echo in this structure is killing off the northern line here. We'll watch this thunderstorm line here that's moving into Philadelphia.
This doesn't look very uh promising for tornadoes, but certainly some severe thunderstorm potential. Um and then that's it.
After that, it's pretty quiet here around central Pennsylvania, northeastern Pennsylvania.
I would still say there's still severe thunderstorm threat out here.
But I think that is pretty much it. We're starting to get some thunder now. Starting to get darker around here.
One thing is for sure, it's dry. Even with those two inches of water we got.
You can't even tell. All the puddles and ponding in the nursery is gone like nothing ever happened. Wild for sure.
Yeah, that's true, Ford. That's definitely true. We need a lot of rain around here. We have one very significant drought in place.
Uh I would say that after this cell that's moving through Mammoth, New Jersey right now, I think central New Jerseyy's out of the woods.
Now, you did have some very impressive heavy rainfall and very strong winds.
You just didn't get the tornado threat.
That's basically where we're at. You didn't verify the tornado threat, but you got pretty much everything else in the watch. You had the strong winds, you had the wind damage, you had the flooding, you had the lightning.
So, I wouldn't say that the watch itself, the watch that was included here. Let's go. Let's go look at the watch here.
Let's pull this up. And the Let's see here. This is a message gun discussion.
I want the watch.
Okay.
Okay. So, a tornado watch. All right.
So, it included the potential for primary threats include a few tornadoes, widespread wind gust, which did verify, uh isolated large hail, which did verify. Uh I'm not sure about 1.5 in though that might probably didn't verify, but definitely the wind gusts and of course with that your heavy downpours and all that good stuff. So, I would say that the watch, you had to put the tornado watch out there because you had the potential for tornadoes, but it also covers everything that a severe thunderstorm would cover. So, that's always the tricky part with these watches and explaining it to the public.
Oh, wow. We broke 6,000.
Wow. Well, hello 6,000 people. What do you know?
So, right now, uh, our focus is around the Philadelphia metro. The Phillies game has mercfully been rained. It has been impacted by rain. So, Met fans don't have to suffer anymore with that nonsense. And neither will Philly fans, by the way, with Kodai. So, that's good.
That's good, you know, because you don't want to sit there and watch the guy walk the park all afternoon. Um, we have a nice cluster of thunderstorms right around Westchester. Let's zoom in on that. Nice.
>> Yeah, there's some pretty good. There's a nice thunderstorm right over approaching Freehold. Lot of lightning.
Not much else, though. Um, let me see if there's any type of rotation with this.
And thus far, not much.
Not much is showing up thus far. So, thus far it looks like more of a downburst straight line wind threat here. Um, heading through Westchester, heading towards Dorstown, a lot of heavy rain, pretty good lightning.
But what I'm not seeing, you know what I'm not seeing so far? I'm not seeing a solid line like down here del towards Delaware, central Delaware. That's a sound. Look at all the lightning heading towards Greensboro and Dayton and uh Maryland.
That's impressive.
And uh pretty good hail too out of that. We don't see anything like that around us.
Nothing even close. Your strongest thunderstorm is basically in Maryland heading towards Greensboro. That pretty good hail and slight signal of a rotation, but probably too broad.
So, this is probably a mess scale low, not an actual tornado.
Very impressive storm though. But it isn't in our area that's for sure. It's south of us. This won't this is going to impact central Delaware and stay south of us. Maybe clip Kate May and Wildwood in about an hour or so as a weaker storm. Um thus far nothing showing up here in southwest New Jersey. Couple of lightning strikes, that's about it.
Central New Jersey. Again, we've had some very impressive rainfall. We've had our flooding. We've had our strong winds. I think that we're going to miss out on our tornado threat. Um, I would say it probably will probably come to an end on this live coverage in 23 minutes if I don't see anything else grow out of this, which will make my wife very happy.
Um, let me go quickly.
not.
>> Yes, that's true. Okay, we fixed the message discussion. You know what I've learned with the me Oh, so when I use sometimes when this sticks, I have to do this, go to camera and back to screen, and it fixes it. Go figure. I think that happened once they're in a winter storm, too. I forgot about that. Yep.
Go back to the radar. So under unlike winter weather events where the live coverage can last for multiple hours, >> this one's up to an hour. Well, probably about almost two hours.
It's starting to rain and freehold.
I can hear it now. And again, these thunderstorms because of the high precipitable water values, they will feature very heavy downpours. So if you're going out tonight, be prepared to be stuck in some very heavy downpours.
>> It is raining sideways, according to my wife.
It's going to rain.
Uh I'm just going to pull up.
I'm just gonna pull up a sounding here around let's say let's do right around Burlington County. Let's see what we have here.
So we have the instability that is for sure.
So, if we're going to see something, so when I see this, when you see the sounding here, this tells me yes, there's plenty of potential, but much like potential for, let's say, a uh a draft pick, right? Let's say a a baseball draft pick, a baseball prospect, right? plenty of potential to be a five tool player, but that doesn't mean that they put everything together, but they're a highly touted prospect, right? Well, this was a highly touted prospect potential. This was Alex Oaha.
If you're a Mets fan, you know, uh, huge five tool prospect.
Anything could happen. Could be the next Hall of Famer, but he flamed out. This looks like it's flaming out. This is not going to be panning out in terms of tornado threat, but certainly in terms of the se thunderstorm potential, the flooding potential, that all verified.
The wind damage potential that all verified. Um, we've had wind reports here, wires down, uh, significant problems with that. We've had flood watches. So, we've had all that pan out.
Unfortunately, uh we also had another wind severe several trees down uh in Reynolds Middle School. So if you go to Reynolds Middle School, you might have a tree in your school. Uh so that's unfortunate or fortunate depending on how you feel about that middle school. Um so we certainly have had our wind damage, certainly had our heavy rainfall. Um, but luckily, thankfully, we have not seen much in way of any type of tornado signal. Uh, if we do see it, like I said, it's going to have to pan out over the next 20 minutes. And thus far, it is not down is not set. Uh, yeah, DIX got struck by lightning apparently or potentially. Um, so that's why they're down. So, we're dealing with that. Um, but I would say that the tornado threat is rapidly coming to an end. I think it's over in central New Jersey. If it's going to happen, it's going to happen right here. I think it's over in southeastern Pennsylvania.
Well, hello. Well, hello to you, too.
Um, we've had some strong winds.
The weather has chimed in and it's saying yes.
The radar back here. So, this is the thunderstorm.
By the way, this thunderstorm could knock us out again. It's intensifying.
It's taking uh some of that sun that we had earlier is definitely getting stronger. There's no sign of any rotation whatsoever with this.
Certainly some straight line winds. That is about it.
Let's see. Hail potential.
Possibly a little bit of hail. This could be intensifying enough to be to produce some hail. We I would not be surprised if we get a severe thunderstorm warning out of this heading into Freehold. A nice little hail shaft starting to show up around Milstown uh township and heading towards Freo Township and Marbal like right in this area here.
Plenty of lightning that's for sure and very heavy rainfall.
and it is definitely intensifying.
So, we're going to get one more round.
We got another couple of clusters around s around uh portions of northern Ocean County, but I am happy to say no sign of tornadoes.
And by the way, the HR has verified very nicely with this line.
Let's see here.
Thank you for doing this. Really appreciate it. I greatly appreciate you taking the time out of your weekend to give us storm information. Uh my sister is flying up from Florida, stopped in Atlanta, arriving in Newark at 9:00. You should be fine.
You should be fine by 9ine in Newark.
You might get a delay.
So, let's pull in on bricks. Let's see if we have any rotation on that one. I don't think we do, but let's take a look.
And no, definitely around break. I mean, you have a nice little storm out there.
We haven't gotten to the point of rotation yet, but here we go.
It's close, but we don't have anything uh established yet.
And then as we head down southward, this line is really producing not only it's producing all lightning, it's start it's very close to producing uh rotation.
Very impressive line. Kate May, you're probably going to get rocked by this in about an hour or so. Now, the good news that you're moving over to Delaware Bay, so it's going to lose a little bit of its punch.
So, some strong wind gusts and the thunder is definitely picking up around here.
Ford would de Ford definitely agrees with you about the tornadoes.
>> DSL 96.
>> Ford DL96.
>> DSL.
>> DSL 96. Okay. DSL. That's pretty cool.
And this is the best potential for anything that's going to pop up as a tornado warning is this right here.
We'll watch this cell, but it's about to push off the coast around northern ocean. It's moving northeast right into southern Mammoth County. So, we have these two cells here. They're definitely getting close to severe levels.
Not really the structure of a tornado, though.
Not exactly a tornadic developing storm, but certainly pretty strong. Let's move right into Freehold.
Not more heavy rainfall than anything else around southern New Jersey. Here's our line. We got one line, one one thunderstorm complex lifting through Norristown.
Uh we have a severe thunderstorm warning with it. potential for some hail. Wind gust 60 miles per hour. I just got issued just north of Philadelphia.
Very heavy rainfall developing here. So, like I said, this is going to be the hour. If this was going to if anything was going to verify, it would be during this time period.
That's exactly what we're seeing here.
So, that work that idea worked out nicely.
So, I think after this comes through, we're done. And probably live coverage is done, too.
Freehold is starting to get pretty bad.
Yep.
Very heavy rain is setting up in Freehold. We got um Wow. Rainfall's adding up around here.
So, I just want to say thank you just in case we go offline again just in case.
Um, thank you for following. I really really appreciate it. Um, it's it has been outstanding. This has definitely been um a great experience. I hope you guys have enjoyed it as well.
Let's see. Severe three hour of lightning, thunder, and heavy rain in Middletown. And then it did nothing to the smoke. Starting to get the spell.
Yeah, you won't get the smell out until uh we get that coldront to blow through.
>> Yep.
Good protein shake here. Can you help?
So, yeah. And just in case with this thunderstorm line if we lose if we lose power again. I just wanted to say thank you uh to everybody for following along.
Do appreciate it.
Newark also had may have residual delays because they had full ground stop this morning. That's true. So definitely definitely that might be a factor. Good point card. That's a very good point.
So >> yeah, English town is >> Yeah, true.
So northern Mammoth County, you pretty much are done. Old Bridge, you're done.
Serville, you're done. Northeast Jersey, you're done right now. Basically, if you're in southern Mammoth County and Ocean County, you're still a threat in central New Jersey. Um, southern New Jersey, still a threat for severe thunderstorms and also tornadoes. Southeastern Pennsylvania, same thing with this line.
Well, basically, once you get to the west of um Westchester, you're pretty much done. There's nothing else behind you but this shower here in Lancaster.
So if you're in Westchester through Philadelphia and towards Trenton, you this is going to be a nasty cell. Very nasty. Not much in the way of any type of um circulation or tornado or anything of that. Again, again, not seeing anything of that in any of these cells.
Okay. certainly a sign for a mess scale uh for a methoscale low and what that is in a thunderstorm is lower pressure within the thunderstorm. It's a messcale beta type scenario, smaller scale within the storm itself, but not an actual tornado signal. Many times we see a tornado warning, a radar based tornado warning because of a mess scale low that's formed. It's very strong and it's on such a borderline between an actual tornado and a um and an actual uh um messo that it gets warned. We just got a severe thunderstorm warning issued for basically the thunderstorm that just moved right over us. Um 60 mph winds are showing up with it. Uh let's pull it up.
Um, north central count, North Central Ocean County in southern New Jersey.
Uh, let's see here. Locations include Long Branch, West Freeholes off. Uh, tornado watch remains in effect.
So, severe thunderstorm warning for north central count, north central Ocean County, and southern New Jersey, southeastern Mammoth County, and central New Jersey. See, there is a central New Jersey Let's go back to the radar again.
There it is.
We got this cell. This cell had the best potential of showing some sort of circulation, but now that's off the coast. We have another one around Tom's River. Uh, a little bit weaker. This is the strongest cell in in uh central New Jersey. It's rapidly moving towards the coast where it's going to be more stable. very heavy rainfall with it though.
It is very heavy rainfall and we just got a message scale discussion update.
Um let's see here.
Nothing really to Okay, so this right right here, keep an eye Trenton for this cell.
Warm warmister township. This is an earth cell. Very impressive. Again, nothing no rotation at all is showing up in any of these cells, but certainly hail. Okay, when we take a look at our hail, certainly just enough for at least some small hail showing up, plenty of lightning, very heavy rainfall, and of course, our wind gust pushing in between 50 and 60 miles per hour.
Further south, we have somewhat of a slight bow echo showing up here around Hopes Township. Not really much showing up here. We do have a severe thunderstorm warning for southern New Jersey.
Okay, let's pull that up here.
Severe thunderstorm warning cancel for northeast Kent County is canled, but everyone else still included.
So, let's see here. West Cumberland and southwestern Salem counties.
again 60 mile per hour wind gusts.
So the wind potential has definitely verified.
Uh let's see lightning break coverage. Thanks for thanks heavy lightning from south of Masquan Beach. Great stuff. Thanks for keeping us updated.
Okay. Uh I'm just bouncing around making sure.
Are you in this warning? Yeah, we're actually in this warning right now.
And you know, we are seeing some torrential downpours here. Well, the plants certainly got their water. That is for sure. And the damn weeds, too.
Unfortunately, dies.
>> Yeah, the weeds never die. That's the problem.
So, we're seeing a little bit more intensification of this line down in southern New Jersey around Hopeville, Hopewell Township.
This could break off. I'd watch out for this line. Vinland, Milville, and Hamilton Township.
And central Delaware is just getting smacked. Look at this. That's a lot of lightning, very heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorm warning, 80 mile per hour wind gust.
That's some destructive winds.
But like I said, luckily after this, we're done with this with the uh tornado threat. can't rule out a few isolated severe thunderstorms uh with the with the line that's associated with this cold front.
Okay. Um but as we go on through the evening, that threat will decline, but we're seeing plenty of severe thunderstorms here.
Just lining up perfectly. Just no sign of any rotation. I'll take it.
Plenty of thunder though.
That is for sure. Geez.
I think that once.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I can see that.
DVD night. This is why we we actually buy our movies. We don't stream them.
Right here.
>> Yeah.
Oh, yeah. Definitely.
Let's see. So, I would say I think that the worst of this tornado threat, if it's going to verify, it's going to be now and it's going to show up in southern New Jersey. I don't think it's I think that southern New Jersey rapidly declining.
I think if there's going to be any type of tornado threat, it's either going to be with this cell or this cell for central New Jersey and around Philadelphia metro.
With each passing minute, that's declining. Southern New Jersey, keep an eye on this cell right here.
This is more straight line winds. Keep an eye on this one right here, right in this area.
So, that's what we're going to be watching.
See if there's anything else here.
I don't see anything else. Let's see if there's any observations here.
So, this supporting our heavy rainfall.
We were talking about that already.
Yeah, that's falling off. That's falling. I'm just right now what I'm doing is I'm going through all of the parameters and I'm just seeing a steady decline pretty much throughout every one of the composits here. So have a supercell composite, but this is declining.
Tornado threat rapidly declining. In fact, we're now starting to see a lot more instability.
effective layer is pushing off the coast.
So this if we were going to see it again, you see the focus here around central New Jersey, around Ocean County.
Basically, if it was going to happen, it was going to happen with this cell, these cells right here, if there's going to be something happening. But right now, not seeing it.
Thus far, no verification.
Keep an eye on this one right here. But this looks more severe, more straight line winds.
Again, keep an eye on the rotation potential.
Zoom in. See that? The cell that was right here. That was closest.
This one, not so much.
I lightning with this one.
A nice cell right there. Again, we'll keep an eye on that. See if that pulls off the rainfall. If you if you're driving in these thunderstorms, definitely um be prepared for some very heavy rainfall and so for some flooding, that's for sure.
Yeah, >> the fitness app is trying to send you out into a thunderstorm.
>> You go for a walk.
>> That's crazy.
confirmed.
>> So far, I haven't seen anything verified yet.
>> Yeah, we've certainly seen flooding.
That's for sure.
anything is going to do with that cell.
This cell's quickly moving towards eastern Mammoth County. Uh may have peaked in strength and now we're watching this one out here.
Philadelphia, you're pretty much done with severe thunderstorms. Got plenty of rainfall, but you're done with the severe thunderstorms. anything off to your west is this just little shower cluster around Lancaster that doesn't seem to be forming all that much. So now we could take our severe threat and tornado threat. I'll call it that.
Basically from here you let me draw a pen here. Where are you? There you go.
Okay. So you still have your severe threat from here.
Right about here. This is what's left once this line goes through.
But if you want, you can include this right here.
this.
>> Nice.
There we go.
There. That's your severe threat potential still. But this cell right here still for like Trenton cutting through Mammoth County once again and Middle Sex Mercer. So this area, this land, this is the last one for central New Jersey. Um I think we're pretty much done in northern Delaware, southwestern New Jersey coming to an end. Uh now focuses more toward southeastern New Jersey. Um zoom out. Beyond that, our next round approaches here late tonight.
And that's pretty much that with that one. Um, so yeah, it's lining up. It was working out pretty nicely in terms of the forecast overall, I think.
And if you're wondering about Long Island, you're pretty much just dealing with running the mill thunderstorms, heavy rainfall. Same thing in Connecticut. These are just your run-of-the-mill thunderstorms. Do watch out for the frequent lightning because of the high level of moisture and also the smoke influence on the atmosphere.
plenty of lightning with these thunderstorms around Connecticut with our warmf frontont, heavy downpours. You have a good potential for flooding in this scenario. Um scale discussion moving in through the Hudson River Valley. Uh again, severe thunderstorm watch threat.
Let's see here. What are they calling this?
Is it low?
Yeah, it's low for the most part. So, there's an isolated threat with this thunderstorm with this line right here for um the cat skills, but it's very low in terms of the potential for watch. Uh Long Island, you got that stable influence. Winds from the south. That's good.
Yeah. And then here we are around Williamsport. Again, not a lot in terms of severe thunderstorms with this. Uh your severe thunderstorm potential is way up here in North Central Pennsylvania. Uh and this won't reach us until well after we're at 6:05 right now. By the time those reach us, we're talking about 8 9:00 at night in the instability and all this rain that's already happened to kill that threat completely. So again, yeah, we're pretty much right here. Thunderstorms blossoming. Um, your primary, your worst case scenario, right, your worst threat is right now around Warming St. War, Warm and Stir Township. Philadelphia, you're pretty much done. Got some rain.
That's it. Um, Trenton, watch out for this storm. Uh, and possibly some more flooding here. The storm in around Freo Township is now lifting up towards the eastern Mammoth. No sign of any rotation with any of these cells, but certainly a lot of straight line winds. And again, we're watching towards southern New Jersey. Oh, you know what? Let me just double check the rotation on this one.
You know, there we go.
There's something trying to pop here around it just south of Deerfield, around Vinland, Newfield.
See if we have anything to mid levels.
>> Oh wow.
>> Well, thank you everyone watching 7,000 of you. I appreciate it. Now this one around Deerfield around approaching Vinland, New Jersey. Keep an eye on this.
This is the one that could actually lead to the verification.
This one right here. It's on the north side of this line.
Mess loss like it's trying to form. It's trying to reintensify.
Okay, let's take a look at the sounding here.
Manhattan's fine. You're good. Just rain.
Hey, welcome New Jersey.
Uh, let's see here.
So, we certainly have plenty of cape to work with.
Uh, let's see.
This.
Okay. Uh, so again, plenty of cape.
We're starting to lose our windshare potential, though. That's interesting.
Still somewhat present, but not as strong.
So, if we see anything, it's going to be right in here. I'm f I'm drilling in on this one. This is the cell if we're going to see anything.
Haven't seen anything on these other cells.
plenty strong enough strong wind gust, plenty of lightning, plenty of heavy rainfall.
We have a new one setting a new severe thunderstorm warning for uh Long Branch watch remains in effect. We'll see how long that lasts, but 60 mile per hour wind gust still present.
Pull up the base.
Well, it was bursting. Now it's starting to back off. So, it looks more like straight line winds around Vinland.
Maybe a mess of scale low right here.
This right here.
If we see anything, it's going to be right here. is passing just north of Rosland, Rose Hannon, uh south of Olette, Newfield, but basically heading right towards Vinland right here.
That's that's the most um down towards Delaware, plenty of impressive thunderstorm, but it's starting to weaken as well.
Stronger thunderstorms are well to our south.
The one passing through Long Branch is starting to weaken. We're getting quiet here. Another thunderstorm forming around uh northern uh Burlington County heading towards Mammoth and Ocean, but this one does not look as severe. Uh the one around Warmster looks like it's starting to split. One part moving into Trenton, another part moving towards Rariton. We have another thunderstorm cell starting to form around Rington Township, moving into northern New Jersey.
Take a look at the instability. Take a look at the cape.
Yeah, we're really losing our environment here. The cape values are starting to really starting to decline now. We're after six o'clock. Starting to see that decline.
Surface base lifting index starting to decline as well. The the uh cap on the atmosphere is starting to get more is starting to get stronger.
And of course, New York City is saved.
Long Island is saved.
So, this is all lining up very nicely to not support tornadoes. Great news. Still heavy rainfall.
Still plenty of hell, that's for sure.
But look at this. Even even the hail potential. Look at that. Starting to decline. So now we're getting See, I like to say 6:00 is usually my time period where I start to see all this stuff fall off.
Unless you get a really strong what we call jet streak at 850 millibars. It just kind of revs everything up. If you don't have that, then after 6:00 everything starts to decline, right?
Because you lose your your heating. This isn't always the case in other parts of the country, but in the northern Mid-Atlantic, this rule kind of pans out pretty nicely. Now, sometimes you get an isolated severe thunderstorm, but in terms of the big events, it kind of backs off.
Uh, let's see here.
New York City Metro, I think you're fine. I think that that you won't see anything.
Let me just check to see if there's any other questions here on social media land.
Yeah, I'm dropping by X as well. Um, wow. 7,19.
That's pretty cool.
So, here's the thing for the rest of the region. Let me pull this up here and pull up the uh let me update the new HRR here. So, in terms of severe thunderstorms, um the idea that it's all or nothing between this next hour is working out really nicely here and it's the HR has done a great job. Okay, so we're going to continue to use that for the New York City metro. I'll work south. Okay, so first of all, for the interior, you have the coldront. We're talking about the Poconos, Catskills, Northern Connecticut. This area right here, you have the cold front moving through. You will have showers and thunderstorms.
Some of those thunderstorms will feature some pretty good lightning. Can't rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm, but that's about it. Uh for the New York City metro, again, showers and thunderstorms, but I think most of them stay below the severe level. Primary concern, especially after 8:00 tonight, will be the potential for some frequent lightning and very heavy downpours. So flooding is a potential out there for the Philadelphia metro after we get this primary line moving through. The cold front line moves through later tonight around midnight. By that time, everything's pretty much collapsing. So it's kind of all or nothing right now.
If we don't see any tornadoes or anything of that nature over the next 30 minutes, I think it's pretty much done.
And probably this live stream as well.
Um, so that's where we're at right now.
Basically, I'm waiting for this line that's moving through Vinland right now to blow through. Once that blows through, again, you can see the hail potential fall apart, lifting to north of Trenton. The storms around Mammoth County falling apart, but you still have a pretty good line here. So, in terms of rotation, okay, if you're gonna see anything, we had a little bit of burst around Finland here. So, if anything's going to take shape, it's going to be this one right here.
Other than that, you had a lot of thunderstorms.
A lot of people think they're funny.
Most of them are.
Um, let's see.
Yeah, this is just running a male thunderstorms.
This is the spirit threat for coastal Mammoth County that's clearing out.
Plenty of lightning though, of course.
So, that's certainly a theme. But this is it. If this if there's going to be anything, it's going to be this right here.
This area right here. Okay. So, Atlantic, Kate May, Salem, right in here.
If we're going to see anything, Sam is pretty much done. Cumberland.
So, Millville, you're getting it right now. Vinland, you're getting it right now. Uh, right now, a lot of lightning.
Still not a severe thunderstorm. Still not warned as a severe thunderstorm, but it is showing the potential for some hail. heavy downpours.
And you can see, like I said, once this moves over the Delaware Bay, it starts to lose its punch for Kate May County.
So, that's certainly some good news. Um, but let's zoom all the way out. You see a lot of focus down here towards Virginia, Maryland. This is where you're getting a lot of your lifting taking place, robbing some of the potential with these storms here. Still plenty of strength.
Yeah, somebody else brought this up.
Every time you say vinyl, I keep correcting you.
Say, >> but I like vinyl.
>> V I spells. They learn this in school.
>> But I like Vid.
Okay, Vin. Fine. We'll rename the town.
There's Melville. Did I get that one right? Okay, good.
How about Center Grove?
I'm not giving you like I'm not turning into a first grade teacher while we're alive.
>> Well, Newfield also is just on the edge of this. Vinand is uh >> YouTube.
>> No.
Oh, should I? All right.
Vinand is doing is is having a rough time now. That is for sure. Okay. Uh but yeah, still not severe. So this might be it.
This might be it. This is it. After this line, we're done. And I'm gonna get some dinner.
>> Okay. Let's see what we got. YouTube.
Uh, I'm in Kate May County, man.
Philly. Uh, can you check on New Jersey?
You're killing me. Vine lend.
The Twitch stream got kind of skippy. I had to switch to YouTube. Sorry about that.
>> Issues over there, too. We'll troubleshoot that. Yeah, we're getting a lot of lightning in Writestown, New Jersey, near Fort Dicks.
Uh, let's see here. Yeah, I know what that cuz exactly what that is.
That's this cell right here.
That's yeah that's produc these cells are definitely producing a lot of lightning.
Same thing around Lake Hurse.
Even though they're not severe, they're still capable of producing a lot of lightning. And we talked about this earlier and I'm going to use my eyeglass example. You see all that smoke and dust in the atm at atmosphere builds up the potential for what we call basically nuclei, okay, in the atmosphere. And this is typical. This is normally is in the atmosphere. And what it does is it allows for water droplets to build on it. Well, we have above normal amount because of our Canadian friends sharing all their smoke with us. And so as a result, you have a lot more static electricity in the atmosphere. You have a lot more potential for lightning, a lot more potential for tropical downpours. That's why we're seeing all this heavy rainfall, unfortunately. Combine that with high precipit values over 2 in.
There we go.
Delaware, you're seeing the worst of it right now, and it's pretty much dropping towards southern Delaware. Um, looks like tornado threats pretty much coming to end, but this is all straight line winds. There's no sign of a circulation there. Um, the storms around central New Jersey, all straight line winds. Um, looks like they're lifting up towards northern New Jersey, but even this, they're losing their punch when they lift northward. So, still producing heavy rainfall and lightning, but the hail shaft is collapsing, which tells me that the lifting support, but the thunderstorm is collapsing. So, some thunderstorms around Ritton. I wouldn't be surprised those lifts up towards New York City.
You get some heavier downpours, some running and mill thunderstorms, but not severe.
So, that's where we're at right now. So, yeah. You know what? I'm going to I'm going to put this I'm going to put this at end at 6:30. We're going to end this because I think that Huh.
That's true. Any more flash flooding in Queens? There's potential with the cold front late moving through tonight. Yes.
As with some individual thunderstorms.
Uh let's see here.
Storm moving east in north central Pennsylvania, dropping down a bit.
Threat for eastern half I78 corridor.
Rain and lightning. Yep. Uh, what do you think of the track last storm north of Philadelphia? I think it's basically lifting up into New Jersey. Let me put it this way. Uh, southeastern Pennsylvania, you're done.
So, southeast Pennsylvania, I think we're done. I think we're done. Um, in northern Delaware, I think our primary focus is this area right here.
So, let me draw that out. Uh let's see where we are. Here we are. So basically this area right here is what we are concerned with going forward.
After this we're pretty much done. But I have not seen any indication with any of these storms of a circulation, tornadoes, certainly heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, straight line winds, wind gusts ranging anywhere between 40 and 60 miles hour. Um, our 80 mile per hour wind gusts came with the storms around Delaware. That's falling off. The line here isn't even uh Where's that?
Of course. Uh, let's see here.
Mid Delaware.
>> Confirmed tornado. There is no confirmed tornado. There hasn't even been a tornado warning. So, there's no confirmed tornado.
There is nothing there.
>> You have access to all this stuff. You can see if something's confirmed or not >> there. There's not even a warning. I'll I'll give you guys a good hit. If there's no warning, there's most likely no confirmed tornado. What you're probably doing is reading this the you're probably seeing some of these signals here.
>> Okay. Yeah, I'll play it again. Nothing.
There's nothing there.
You have a a slight signal right here, but that's not enough for a tornado.
That's a mess of scale low. That's not a tornado. That's not a tornado signal.
And look at the base reflectivity.
There's this is even the right structure for it. Certainly heavy rainfall.
Certainly a lot of lightning. Um let's see here. We have a tornado. We have a a a severe thunderstorm warning with this cell that's moving off, but no other signal on Mammoth County at all. And then this cell again rotation wise not really showing much. We do have this signal down here.
But again, if you look at the structure of the line, not really supportive for tornadoes. And none of this is actually severe thunderstorm warned. It's not even up to that intensity. So, we're rapidly coming to an end on this one. Millville, you're done. Vinland, you're done. Newfield, you're done. Just heavy rainfall. Now we're watching Hamilton Township, Commercial Township, which is nice is nearly done. Bell Payne, Woodbine, Delmont, Newtonville, but this is rapidly coming to an end, guys.
Now, we do have a tornado warning.
Here we go in Maryland. Here we are. Uh, so technically the tornado watch is verified just south of us. Um, but within the the watch area. Uh, let's see here. And War North Central Women County. probably misspelled that. Uh, southeastern Maryland, northern northern Dur County in southeastern Maryland.
See, radar indicated rotation. Okay, so let's take a look what this looks like.
Flying debris is possible in the watch.
So, let's see what this looks like on the radar data.
There it is.
So, we're starting to see that very clearly.
Signs of rotation.
Not exactly the best structure, but it's still present. Probably if anything, if it verifies it' be an F-0.
So that possibly that storm's going to be lifting into uh Delaware, Southern Delaware outside the forecast area, but definitely uh stormy, that's for sure.
Definitely a dangerous situation down there. We got nothing around here though. We're pretty much done.
Our our potential here is coming to a close.
So see, we got three minutes left. I saw a forming tornado 30 minutes ago in Virginia. I believe that. Yes.
Okay.
Crazy wind in Atlantic City. Yeah, that's the outflow boundary.
Atlantic City is getting hit with the outflow boundary right now.
And this line is going to be coming in with a lot of lightning. Southern Jersey, Southern Jersey Shore is about to get hit with some very heavy rainfall and a lot of lightning. Um, and we're seeing that line. I would not be surprised we saw some flash flooding here in central New Jersey with these lines of thunderstorms. So, we got another round of just approaching uh Freehold, Mammoth County, Milstone, Jackson Township, and and Northern Ocean County, Lakewood Township.
Pretty impressive setup here for very heavy rainfall.
Flooding is definitely going to be a problem here, so I'd be prepared for that.
Facebook sucks >> beyond normal.
>> Not only did we lose the live came back, >> right?
>> But I had shared it when we to start and everything, >> right?
>> It took two hours for it to show up on my feed.
>> That's funny.
That's typical. That's typical Facebook.
Uh let me see. wrapping up here.
Let's see. Now, we're seeing further to the north. You're seeing the cold front here. We have some tornadoes showing up here, right? Some tornado warnings.
Again, by the time this line reaches us, cuz it's 6:30 right now, by the time it reaches us, the instability's gone or subsided, the potential subsided, but for central New York in extreme northern northeastern Pennsylvania, yeah, still game on up there, uh, outside of our forecast area, but certainly pretty impressive setup down around here around Bingington. Um, watch out for this line heading towards Monttoello, Scranton, and Pikipsy uh for a lot of lightning, heavy downpours, and strong wind gusts.
So, our thunderstorm complex out here.
Again, nothing severe.
And this is turning into more of a rainfall event for down here. So, with that, I think we're going to come to an end for our live chat. Um, but thank you again for joining. Uh luckily, thankfully, we didn't have much noise tornadoes in the forecast area, but uh this uh setup was definitely uh impressive enough to at least have me go to go to live coverage. So, uh one of the first ones for doing live coverage for severe weather or severe thunderstorms at least. Thank you again and as always, stay safe out there.
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