Why We’re Watching Closer To Home This Year

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]I'm picking up on some early season signals in the tropics that we need to pay attention to plus a closer look at what super El Nino is going to do to hurricane season. Hi everybody. I'm chief meteorologist Chris Justice.

[00:00:10]Please like this video, subscribe to this channel, and turn on those notifications so more people can see and so that I can keep you informed of what could be coming down the pipe. Now, as we look at what's going on right now, there are some early season signals.

[00:00:23]Nothing in particular the models are like excited about, but something we need to pay attention to because if you look at the last 7 years, there have that have given us chances for some early season development in that late May, early June time frame. So, it's not out of the question and if anything did form, it likely would be weak. Let me show you what's going on in the Atlantic basin right now. We've got a couple of different signals we need to look at in the Gulf and the Caribbean, but first let's kind of look at where things stand temperature-wise. This is the ocean temperature. We're at the very beginning of the season, arguably the coolest part of the season, but you got your typical spots that just stay warm year-round.

[00:00:58]You want to go swimming in these areas.

[00:01:00]You got the Gulf Stream right here. It's still pretty chilly here across the Atlantic coast. My family's got our beach week coming up. I know it's going to be a little on the cool side, but let's look at these sea surface temperature anomalies to normal. So, what's what's normal, what's not? You got a pretty good pocket of cooler waters back here compared to normal, so there will not be much development in this area. You got your typical spots that are warmer than normal and what's in particular notable here is that compared to normal, the Caribbean and the Gulf in this area sits a little bit warmer than we would even typically see it. Now, you know it's already a typically warm spot. Now, it's sitting a little bit warmer than normal. So, that's an area that as we are still in that season where fronts actually make it to Florida, make it into this area, and then stall out that we could get some action to try to form on it. What we would look out for, there's not that happening now, but if front would come off the Carolina coast into Florida and stall out somewhere along I-4. That's when you would get some development to happen on it. And as we look at the pattern moving forward, we are very, very active across the Southeast to the tune of several inches of rain and very active weather, which I am thankful for.

[00:02:07]This high back toward the east is in a good spot, sends in Atlantic moisture, kind of just gets that general flow out of the south for the Southeast to kind of flip the pattern around in this significant drought that has just entrenched itself into our weather pattern. Hard to get rid of, okay? But as we move forward here, we're going to see that high continue to be locked into place that that it sends in that moisture to where we just let it kind of lie and this atmosphere becomes very disturbed here across the Southeast and the Gulf. You get a couple of trailing fronts that sit somewhere along here.

[00:02:38]There's a low. There's likely a trailing old frontal boundary right in here.

[00:02:42]Do you get a little low pressure system like that right there? Uh you know, nothing to write home about, but it's an early signal of lower pressure. And as a whole, it looks like there's lower pressure in general across the Gulf and the uh Southeast coast. So, could this area be a breeding ground for something minor like a tropical depression or tropical storm? And if so, I think many of us would be thankful for a little bit of extra rain. You never hope for a tropical storm or anything like that, but you wouldn't mind at least seeing some rainy action uh during that time frame. So, again, that's the European signals there. If we look closer, it does it, you know, crop out some low pressure? Well, let's see. This is 51 different solutions of the European. And as we move forward here, it does have the potential of a couple of lows cropping up right in here in that May 31st-June 1st time frame. So, next weekend after Memorial Day. So, I think what you've allowed to happen here is this front has come through. It's just simmered here and you've got enough repetitive storm action that it's a snowball effect. You get the snowball to start and then it kind of just grows. So, are there some early season signals? Yes. Are they anything to write home about? No, you got a couple of thousand to maybe a 993 tropical storm-ish low pressure types hanging out in the Gulf and the Caribbean. And again, nothing that's out of the ordinary for this time of the year. And in fact, I would expect that given the ocean heat content in this area is rather high, like it usually is as we move forward. So, again, just a pattern to just stay dialed in on, to stay tuned in on because as we move forward, we're going to continue that be a possibility as hurricane season continues. So, what you can expect later this week, I'm going to be working on a video here that explains the super El Niño pattern for you. On WYFF News 4, we have our hurricane special for you this week. And what I'm going to be doing is ironing out specifically what super El Niño means for hurricane season because there's a little bit of a false narrative that let our guard down in Florida or Georgia or the Carolinas. No, you can't do that.

[00:04:46]In fact, I would say that you need to stay dialed in on. The ceiling may be lower. Instead of, you know, 15, 20 storms, we may end up with 10, okay? But of those 10, how many get close to your town? That that's kind of what the theme is there. And super El Niño is not going to just, you know, keep your town clear of any hurricane. That's a false narrative. And then we have to look past hurricane season. What does super El Niño mean for the fall severe weather season? I think that's kind of an understated portion of this. A more active southern jet can sometimes mean a more strong pattern. And then as we go into winter, we're still long ways out from that. But 6 to 8 months from now, we're going to be talking about the peak of El Niño coinciding with a cold winter.

[00:05:27]Does that mean we have a very active winter? The answer is yes for many across the eastern half of the United States. So, folks, that's kind of what I'm working on here for you. If you have questions, if you have concerns, please let me know in the comment section. I would love to be able to answer anything you may have. And of course, if you're new here, please consider liking this video so more people can see. Turning on that subscribe button, that's the way you can stay informed should anything be coming our way. I'll be the first to let you know. Hope you guys have a blessed day and we'll talk soon.