Big Tech Earnings Predictions 7-22-26

[00:00:01]Hi, this is Randy Phinney with Right Side Of The Chart and this is a mid-session update for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026. What we're going to do in this video is the game I like to play every few months when we get into earnings season and of course we're coming up on peak earnings season, meaning the markets, I'm sorry, the companies that matter, the big MAG-8s are all set to report and starting kicking off really tonight. Going over the next couple weeks here.

[00:00:31]So what I like to do from time to time, if you follow me for a while, is it's very much would be considered a fool's errand trying to call predict where stock is going to go after earnings.

[00:00:43]Now, let me prelude this first and say that any position that you hold into earnings, especially taking a new position into earnings, is a, there's a, a multiple of risk. That's almost immeasurable.

[00:00:58]You're going to have a stock. that's most likely going to have a sharp move and most likely, especially with tech companies, a lot of the ones I'm going to go over have a good chance are going to gap one way or the other. With that being said, I also always like to reiterate there are three, what I call, this is just me, I call three components to an earnings report.

[00:01:23]Let me find a clean board here. I'll just use this as my little drawing tool. Okay, component one is the earnings release. I'm going to go over that. I'm going to show you the earnings calendar in a second, where to find it. So you have the earnings release, ah which comes out.

[00:01:38]It's a quick statement. It's released much faster than any human on earth can read. computers and algos parse through the initial data that's released. and buy-in programs are being fired off again faster than you or I can react. You get a lot of volatility. ah So we know again, it depends on the stock. Some are more volatile than others. I'll talk about that in second.

[00:02:06]So take that with a big grain of salt on the initial earnings release. Number two, then comes the conference call. Not all, but most companies will give a conference call and they get on there. And this is the second phase, whether it's a pre-market or post-market earnings release. And at that point, I can't tell you how many times I've seen a stock that had a sharp drop or sharp rally on the initial earnings release based on a beat or a loss, uh, go completely the other way based on any forwarded guidance or little nuances that weren't in the initial release of the numbers. Okay. So my point being, take everything, take this with a grain of salt. And then even at times this, and then stage three and pretty much the final stage is how does the stock trade during the regular session? Remember most, not all, but most companies either report well before the opening bell in the morning. Typically, generally companies like financials tend to do that. You'll have a lot of the tech companies that do tend to be ADRs, American Depository Receipts, meaning tech companies that aren't based in the U.S. like Taiwan Semi and the likes, ASML, those companies that are overseas because they're obviously in different hours. Most, not all, but most of the US big tech companies report after the market closes. And so what happens is pre-market and after hours are kind of the wild, wild west. There's the, you don't have the liquidity, especially for the big holders of the stock, the ones that are going to parse through that data and make a decision. Those are your very large um hedge funds, think pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, managed mutual funds. So as I like to say that the starters step on the field at 9.30 a.m. every day in the trading session because that's where the liquidity is. And so a stock that can do this or this in the after hour session on earnings, it's not unusual to see that that reversed in the morning. because this may be an overreaction. ah remember, there's just a lot less liquidity in the after hour session. You know, so you have then the regular session and throughout the day, not the opening bell, you're going to get order and balances.

[00:04:31]Don't read too much into that, but that's, you know, if it's a big gap down, sometimes that gets bought up. So that should be the RS regular session. And then really the fourth and final is where the stock's going to go in the coming days to weeks. By that, mean, I've seen in my decades of trading, I've seen, can't even count if I had a 50 hands or a hundred hands, a number of times I've seen a stock blow it away, have a big rise or a big drop following earnings. And maybe that goes on for a couple of days only to see the stock peak there. uh Apple's one that often does that or bottom there. So the fourth and final, you know, again, There's a lot of information that's being digested by both, again, man and machine alike, humans, little analysts at their desk, um algorithmic trading programs and things like that. ah So those are really the four components. So what I do in this is I'll call where socks are going to go. Again, take the initial reaction with a grain of salt, because sometimes that initial post or pre-market pop or drop is the one that sticks. quite often it's not, quite often it's reversed. So more so where's the stock going in the coming days to weeks? And that's what we're going to do here. I'm going to give you my thoughts. Again, most would say it's a fool's errand trying to predict where stocks are going to go after earnings, but that's what I do.

[00:06:00]So call me a fool. just so you know, on the vast majority of these, I don't bet on it, especially I don't take a position right at that time. you if I want to gamble, I'm going to go to Vegas. least I'm going to get some free drinks and see the sights and sounds, you know, it's, this is, you know, going, especially going heavy into a stock. But with that being said, these are, this is a germane to where the market's going to go. Cause we have a lot of the big tech companies I'm going to cover right now in this video. And I'll do a follow up. I'll do this again tomorrow. We have a, and over the next few days and just give you my two cents as to where I think a stock is going and why. So starting out here, just a quick update, we still have a day three of back testing the bottom of the symmetrical triangle I've highlighted recently on QQQ, saying that this still offers an objective short entry here on this back test and or up to the top of the triangle, ideally not above it. That would be not, for me, not necessarily an immediate stop out. Maybe depends on you and how tight you want to keep your stops. It would be a near term bullish technical event, especially a solid daily close above the triangle. ah My preference is still expect a rejection here, and it's going to line up with what I'm about to cover in this video. So we're going to roll into the um the stocks reporting when you're on right side of the chart.com. If you come over here to resources, this is something I check very regularly, ah even on You know, just about any given day of the week. like to know what's going on on the economic calendar.

[00:07:38]You have a link down there to it. And then the earnings calendar here. So we're to look at the earnings calendar right now and go over who's reporting. Let's just start out. This is who reported today. Here's tonight right here. So you've got a big lineup coming out, ah kicking off tonight. ah Several, a couple at least of the, mag eight, mag nine, 10, whatever you want to call them. Tesla, Alphabet, that's just their other share class there.

[00:08:08]You have IBM, Active Trade on the site. I'm gonna suspend stops on that because of the earnings tonight and I'll let you decide if you wanna do that. That's just what my plan is. ServiceNow, Texas Instruments. So we'll go over those and I'm gonna go over URI. I followed that one closely. I've got a friend that works for that company, manages some of the offices down here. and our locations, I should say. And it kind of, it's somewhat a tell on the economy when business is booming, they rent most a lot of construction equipment, cranes, generators. You go to a concert, you're going to see their generators out front. You go to a construction site. If the name's not on it, it's probably, it's a good chance. They're the biggest of the rental companies out there. So we'll look at those as well. And let's see since we'll go over a couple that are reporting tomorrow morning as well. And then I'll do the same thing um tomorrow for those that report tomorrow night. But just to kind of show you how heavy the calendar is this week, you also have Intel coming up, um Fix Comfort Systems USA for those of not familiar. They're one of the uh There's two or three big uh companies that make most of the HVAC equipment. Those are AC units and they've been a play, also an indirect play on the AI bubble, the build out for data centers. As you guys know, those things run very hot, very energy intensive. ah Energy, anything that uses electricity or energy, your car, whether it's gasoline, a byproduct of that is heat.

[00:09:48]so these things need massive cooling systems. So we'll look at that one. And um we're bullish along the miner. So we'll take a look at Newmont, the king of the sector there as well. Maybe Decker's that kind of an idea of what we'll see. We'll see if I have time to get to that.

[00:10:04]Okay. Let's start with who's coming up tonight. So let's start with Tesla. Tesla, obviously one of the big mag eights. And I'm going to tell you that on Tessa, my call will be down.

[00:10:24]I'm going to do two things. I'm going to gauge both my where I think it's going and my degree of confidence for whatever that's worth. So Tessa, I've got, I'm going to call it down and my, degree of confidence is medium low. I will call it a Y. Well, a couple of things.

[00:10:40]This is a daily chart, busy, busy, busy board here. We had a great, you know, short on Tesla down there all the way to that, uh, called it at the fifth and final target when that was hit canceled six because we reversed went full long off the April six lows, April seventh lows, um, positive divergence. And that gave us this uptrend. And then up here, uh, we recently put in a divergent high. So number one, we're coming off a very, very big divergent high.

[00:11:06]This is divergence that has been extending since that previous divergent high. made a divergent high there. Big correction. made an equal or even marginal slightly higher high while the divergence just continued to build. So when you see divergence, it spans for a year or more on the daily chart. You're going to see that divergence very well on the weekly chart as well right there. So that's what Tesla looks like. Now, the thing where my confidence is medium to low is, uh is you guys have heard me say, if you've heard me say it once, you've heard me say it a thousand times. Support is support and tone less broken. This is a very significant uptrend line. comes off the 2020, 2019 lows right here, about middle of 2019.

[00:11:54]Nice clean reactions along the way, as you can see as I draw these little arrows here. And we've been dancing on it now. ah Based on the scope of these divergence, it's a trend line that I think is gonna go sooner than later. Sooner. or later is relative. Everything's relative. When trading, it's relative to the time frame I'm analyzing. These are divergences that have been building for, or on the weekly chart years. Now, and again, it's not as if they don't matter or play out. We had off that first divergent high, big, well into the double digit drop. That was probably more than 50 % drop. Another big high double digit drop there and another one there. And usually it's that third time's a charm on divergences that'll play out. What's given me pause and you've heard me say this before as well. When you're an when I'm analyzing a chart, if I have a support level, I'm going to color it up here. I'll make it yellow so you can see that trend line real well. I know it's a busy chart. So I also have this shorter term trend line that comes off the April 20, 24 lows. Um, we come in, we capture nice perfectly there off the April 20, 25 lows. And look at this. There seems to be a pattern, right? Um, every April, uh, We come and test that trend line and we bounce off it. The previous two times we had very strong, the buyers just stepped in with a vengeance, right? And bought the stock up. This time it's been a much more muted bounce. It shows tired, it's tiring. Like if you're into watch boxing or UFC or anything, or even, even, uh, you know, your favorite sports team conditionings, everything. Sometimes you'll see a boxer or a team that's not conditioned, just kind of peter out. towards the end of the match and that's usually before they go down or lose the fight or the match or the game. you know, and again, it just shows that, uh, there's less than the vigor and the buying off this trend line has been weaker and weaker. In fact, we just had another tag of it. We've actually broken below it, but a couple of things here. Number one is what I was saying earlier, if you have to squint to see if, uh, you've broken support, especially during a strong uptrend.

[00:14:06]Give it the benefit of the doubt. Now it is a breakdown. There was a solid breakdown right here on my crosshairs on Monday. Yesterday we were below it and today we're below it.

[00:14:17]So by all accounts that is a breakdown and if the stock wasn't set to report tomorrow, I would probably add this as a short trade idea for you. That's an objective short interest and we're just a hair below the trend line. However, I always say this, take breakdowns that occur right before earnings with a big not a grain of salt, a lump of salt, because earnings has a potential. There's one thing out there besides just a random news headline that was completely unexpected on a company, positive or negative, is earnings. It has a potential to um change the trajectory of a stock and it also, uh breakdowns that occur, you know, anybody that's doing their homework knows Tesla's about to report. So you usually see And I'll show it to you. Earnings, I'm sorry, volume usually tapers off. Let me turn up my volume bar so you can see that. ah You know, no professional trader. Again, professionals aren't gamblers. Gamblers you're going to find in Vegas. The market's full of gamblers right now. That's been well documented. Buffett's talked about it. I know it to be true. I turn the TV on. I watch the World Cup. All these advertisements. You can bet now whether it's going to rain in Saudi Arabia tomorrow. Um, you can bet on the next, uh, you don't think Taylor Swift is going to say, or all this stupid crap. And, and again, I think this is just, I don't know how this, it's not going to end well. Gambling is not a good thing. And the stock market's become a casino as well. Single day options, all that other crap we have now, whatever one day, it all kind of blow up and unwind because we know the stock market, you know, is supposed to be a mechanism for investing in, in capital growth. then you got. things like Bitcoin and meme stocks and that's just a sign of the times guys. So I'm going to get off on a tangent, but I will say that to my point, know, ah seasoned professionals aren't going to take a big stake right in front of earnings usually. And you can see the drop off in volume. Here's the volume bars down below. Hopefully you can see them as I zoom in here.

[00:16:27]So volume has been tapering off because the stock's about to report. So there's a couple takeaways. Breakouts that occur on very low volume have a higher rate of failing, number one. You want to see confirmation, especially on long side breakouts. And then number two, as I said, if you have to squint to see if you've broken the trend line, give it the benefit of the doubt. Okay. Now with all that being said, those are little why my degree of confidence is what I call medium low. It is a breakdown. So a breakdown is a breakdown until unless it fails, meaning we have a solid close back above the trend line. Just like the NASDAQ 100, you have a symmetrical triangle. That uptrend line I gave you were down below. So the fact we've broken down, but when we look down here, the trend indicator, you see these purple lines. Lately, I've been covering this a lot. I've been using these as years. A lot of stocks, um when you're above or below, when the PPO of that stock is above or below the zero line, in the case of Tesla, I have it about negative one, a little bit below there tends to delineate the trends, meaning when this signal line crosses below, you're in a bearish trend.

[00:17:34]There's one right there, one right there, one right there, and these were, uh and one big one right there. I didn't have it circle. They marked the biggest corrections or downtrends in Tesla, which has been in a larger bull trend. So most of the time, as expected, your PPO lines are above the zero line. And additionally, an added bonus is, When you're above it, it acts as support on pullbacks. Again, use that nine EMA, last of the two to cross. And then when it crosses down, it signals a trend change. And I don't use that as a standalone trading indicator. I use it in conjunction with other things such as there was a sell signal there and there. We had a break of that off that first we had the negative divergence, then the minor trend line break, the larger trend line break. And that gave us this correction all the way down to here. So we're right there really close. slightly down below it. um And again, I'm going to bet this one down and we will revisit this, ah let's say within a week or so. I'll revisit it tomorrow when I do the updates for the next uh company's reporting.

[00:18:43]But again, I'm calling this one down despite whatever happens after the close today. I'm calling it down in the coming weeks to months. especially if it can't recover this and hold above this level throughout the remainder of this week and into next week. And if it pops above the downturn line, look, that's bullish. So again, there's takeaways for both of you listening to my voice, both of you who are bullish and those of you who are bearish on Tesla.

[00:19:10]I can, you know, if you're bullish, your best bet, you're below support, wait for that recovery.

[00:19:16]Then you have a bear trap, false breakdown. You can set a stop below this uptrend line right there. And you can add on a breakout above the triangle pattern. If you're bearish, you can take a starter position. I'll do that often. You know, don't get me wrong, but if I'm going to bet a stock long or short in earnings, I'm not going to load the boat on it. Cause again, that's that you'll, know, uh, the last component I want to throw out before I forget is, uh, you know, I make a lot of sayings up over the years. call them my yogi isms. And one of those is, when I was a stockbroker, had, was, uh, I forget the rule number, uh, back then it was SEC. It's FINRA now stock brokers, financial advisors have to buy by this rule, fiduciary rule. It's called the know your client rule. In other words, um, if somebody came in, they sat down and said, Randy, I've got a million dollars to invest. Um, put it, you know, uh, just put it in something aggressive. No, I couldn't do that. I had to profile that client. I had to know their background. Is that their only million dollars or do they have 20 million elsewhere? If they do, we can get aggressive with that million. If that million is everything they have, how old are they? Are they, you know, 69 years old planning to retire next year?

[00:20:30]If so, I'm not going to put much of any of that money into the stock market. It's going to go into more conservative, mostly fixed income, maybe some blue chip dividend paying stocks.

[00:20:39]What is their risk tolerance? Are they aggressive or are they conservative? So That was the know your client rule. It still exists today. I don't know the FINRA number for it. I have a rule called know your security rule. And how that rule works is very simple. If you're gonna trade a stock, especially one you've never traded before, study the patterns, turn on the earnings a little ease on your chart. Some stocks do a phenomenal job of managing earnings expectations.

[00:21:08]We're gonna get to IBM in a second. I'll talk on that one. Uh, they didn't, well, they didn't even report yet. They're going to report tomorrow, but, some stocks have a big history. There was an earnings report, big gap. Let me measure it for you to put it. So this is what I do.

[00:21:23]I'll look at a stock if I've never traded it. If I've traded it, I know already where the, so that was a green candle. It looks like we closed up that day. Let me make sure we closed at the high, uh, opened up there, closed at two 60. Yeah, we did. So, okay. If you went.

[00:21:40]Let's say you went uh short that stock. It closed right here. It reported the next day it closed up 22%. This is Tesla. Okay, so I know Tesla and I look at these, I can just eyeball these, these ease these earnings periods. And I see a lot of volatility around it, including that 20 something percent, a single day gain right there after an earnings report. So You know, if I go to, uh I don't know, let's say Procter and Gamble, for example, there may be very little movement historically after earnings because they have a more steady business model.

[00:22:17]um know, uh earnings don't uh fluctuate as much. They do a better job of managing ah earnings expectations. So that's a very, very important thing. I try to give takeaway lessons I've learned over the years on trading and investing. It's again, know your security. If you're going to take a position, even as an investor into earnings, you better know the history of that stock. um Because there are stocks that I've seen gap 2030. I mean, there's no limit, but I've seen stocks gap. You know, again, I, we're going to get up to IBM here in a second. uh That's a great example of a, I was a single day drop of 25%. I believe it was their largest single day drop in history. And, um, It was actually, it was a pre announcement. um so they're going to report tomorrow. We're going to get to that in a second. So Tesla, we're going to call down. I will follow up. Um, again, degree of confidence isn't very high because we're too close to support and we're too close to this trend indicator flipping. But, uh, if it goes this way, this will be a more powerful, longer term sell signal and a takeaway to guys that's going to impact the market. Remember, that's why I'm doing this now. I haven't done this recently because a lot of what's reported doesn't move the market that much. These guys do. Next up, we're going to go to Alphabet, one of the largest companies in the world.

[00:23:46]Certainly the top component of the, one of the largest components of the NASDAQ and the S &P 500. This one I am also going to call down. Surprise, surprise. But no, I mean, I'll tell you otherwise. I'm going to put a medium degree of confidence. There's a couple things involved here ah to that. Number one, we're above the 200 day moving averages. I cannot give a high degree of confidence on calling a stock down that is clearly 110%. Just understand by me calling this down and again, I'm talking within the next couple of weeks of betting the stock to be lower is a super contrarian call. 99 out of 100 analysts or you know even technicians you talk you're gonna say you're crazy sock It's in an uptrend. It's above its 200 day moving averages the red and blue line which also come in with this uptrend line right here Primary uptrend line comes off those key April lows right there, right? So it would be a Super aggressive bet to go short the stock. There's no sell signals right now. Well You had one recently, we had a cell signal back here, but we've already dropped since the stock peaked.

[00:25:00]It dropped 19 % on that initial drop, which cleared out the extreme overbought conditions.

[00:25:07]It was overbought. You can see the uh 80 level, which is an extreme overbought reading on that stock. We've reset that. The stock is no longer overbought. The RSI is down below 50. It's a 43. The divergence has played out. But in my opinion, it hasn't played out for the entire move. Ultimately, I think Alphabet comes back here. oh It's going to take a while to get there. These are all potential price targets. ah And so we'll revisit this. are, again, the trend line is your first support level. I even did a recent video for you guys, covered this one. This purple box is what I need to see go. to make a pretty strong bearish case in a case that as I went through this recent recent videos for T4, my fourth and final current target on QQQ to be hit, which is calling for a 15 % drop off the highs. Alphabet's going to need to take out this uh support zone that consists of a price support zone that ranges from about 321 down to about 314 plus the 200 day moving averages. They both come in there, the simple and exponential plus this trend line. And this is the bottom of it is really your BOD. So that's kind of the lights out level for Alphabet. So again, um the fact that we are, this one's clearly in the PPO's and bearish territory. These purple lines show you once you cross, it delineates a bearish trend. And so because of that, it gives me a little more confidence, even though we're above the primary uptrend line, the 200s, this trend indicator is bearish. Is it going to be a longer correction like this one here? You know, that what constituted a drop from high to low off that divergent high. That was a drop of 31%. So far, as I just mentioned, we've only dropped about 17, roughly half that, right? And again, you can go back in time and see the biggest drops in the stock. And all these were just simply corrections in a bull market. And that's, know, but they were bigger so far than this one. And this divergent high is bigger. than the previous divergent high. So again, I'll call this one down, but the safe bet, if you want to be the second mouse to get the cheese, I wouldn't shorten it. I wait for, if it gaps down big, let's just say maybe they'll give you a back test of this level here. Again, any, if you go below that level, any kickback rally to there. Now, let me just put it in perspective how far we are above that level. So to take out the bottom of my, my support zone, the stock has to drop 10%. That'd be a pretty big move. It can do that. That's about as much as uh Alphabet will go up or down after post earnings. And if it goes any higher, guys, then that's it. And again, I am not betting this one individually right now. I'm just giving you my expectation where it goes. ah If it does pop up, all I can tell you is with a not a high degree of confidence, with certainty, it pops up anytime soon to make a marginal new high. New high will be a marginal new, but still divergent high. Why?

[00:28:19]Because these indicators are severely lagging. There's no way we're going to burn through.

[00:28:24]The stock would have to go up 50 % in a day. It's not going to do that. The market cap is too big. It's a 4.3 trillion. No, I'm sorry. Alphabet class A is 4.3 trillion. And then you add in the other shares and it's another seven. It's a $5 trillion company total with both share classes. Okay. So that's that. We'll, follow up on it. And again, most importantly are when these sell signals come. I'm just doing this to kind of show you where I think things are going to go. It aligns with my outlook on the NASDAQ 100 of course. ah If I went through this, you know, and I'm doing this as objectively as possible. Hope you guys understand that.

[00:29:02]And if I went through in the majority of the MAG-8 stocks, nine, 10, whatever you want to call them, I couldn't make a decent case that they're headed lower in the coming weeks to months again. I'm not so concerned with the immediate um reaction to the stock after the earnings release. You know, that may help may set the tone, then the conference call, but really how they trade in the coming days to weeks. So we'll revisit this one and see how that plays out. All right. Next up, let's go back to my earnings. We'll look at service now. Let's see if I have an opinion. didn't even look at that one. Did I already service now? Oh yeah, I have notes here. Um, I'm neutral, neutral because we're coming off a divergent low. I think I even shared this as a trade idea with you recently on the site. It just rallied into its 200 day moving averages. came off support. Let's see here. If we go, uh, we go down here and type in that. can't remember how to cover so many stocks. ServiceNow, I covered it on, uh, June 1st. Was I doing the AI summaries? Yes, I was. So then we looked at what did I say about ServiceNow? Uh, honestly, I haven't even looked at this and O W and we just do a find here. to, uh, where's the find find in page and O W should be summarized. I thought out there. Nope. One to two matches. One of two matches. Uh, I covered it in the video, but the summary didn't pick up on it. So my bad. that was on, uh, June 1st. And again, we go to that June 1st. Uh, Oh, okay. That was probably. Okay. I just went to the video and fast forwarded to that. Yeah. Yeah, we did. We played that one like a grand piano. So you can, you can either go to that video on six one. It's at the, here we go. Starting at the 35 minute marks. I drew it out. This is I've got the video playing with subtitles. You can see, yeah, we did. highlighted as objective long right here. This is the video streaming right now, um, with subtitles down below. And I went on to say that it's a hard out. gave you a, 124 target for 40 % profit right there and said, that was the actual trade idea.

[00:31:30]I consider taking full profits. And I went on to say now we're at the 200 day moving averages. ah And that's a I use the word hard out. It's should be somewhere down here. I don't know why they've subtitles aren't updating ah The captions But either way ah So that was it. So yeah, here's one Again when I have a strong opinion, that's when you're getting trade ideas went long there We hit our final target I think there and then right here I said hard out if you would be at that point I said do you let pro race stops? If you don't want to take profits or full profits, raise stops, let it run. And at this point, I said, we hit our 200 days price resistance hard out. you melt all the sheared, all the meat off that bone. And then again, as a majority, a lot of the trades on this site is it's about the exits, not just the entry points. That's you sidestep to give back of almost a hundred percent profits. Now I don't have an opinion. We're coming off a divergent low. We got very overbought. So it was bullish here. Bearish here. And now we've had a reset. We were very overbought at that point when we rallied into the 200 days in resistance. So very much expected to pull back, but now we're not overbought indicators in the middle. So I don't have an opinion on where this one goes longer term, probably lower because it's in a bear market. What I mean by that while we peaked here, we were in a bull market, put in divergent high, lost our 200s, had a divergent low, bear market rally, put in another divergent high. And from that point, every single attempt to get back to the 200 has been rejected. That's bear market action, just like a bull market. Here was a bear market in service now, a drop of high to low 52 % defined by the 200 is being lost and every attempt rejected till we regained them. And then once you regained them, back test, back test, buy, buy, buy. And then you start to wobble here.

[00:33:31]And there was a little cut through there, but So that's it. I don't want to spend a lot more time. I'm just kind of showing you again who's coming up tomorrow. And on this one, I would just stand aside. I don't have much of an opinion on it. Next up, IBM official trade. am officially again, you do you. This is not a follow me site. Sometimes I get those posts. Hey, what are we doing with our XYZ position? Or what are we going to do with this? No, your trades or your trades? Mine or mine? I provide technical analysis. Trade ideas, setups, various price targets, various entry points. On this one, officially, I do track trades officially, just kind of go in the site, see how we're doing. I am going to suspend the stop on IBM because they're reporting tomorrow. Is that a gamble? Absolutely. If you are risk adverse, you may not want to do it. Remember they pre-announced here. so on that, read the article that IBM has a history Uh, this is what I read in in, in, in one of the financial media, Bloomberg or journal or somewhere, um, that in the past, they've been so steady with their, their, their, their earnings, um, and, and so accurate that a lot of times the CEO didn't come in the call, come onto the call. just report. Well, the other day, the CEO came out and said, they were caught blindsided by this whole AI thing. Uh, know, IBM sells hardware, computers, you know, systems and all that. ah I mean from a technical perspective the stock was clearly bearish. It was my kind of setup. We put in a big divergent high, double top high. It set this downtrend, broke down recently a divergent low. It rallied, tried to regain that, put in a marginal new and still divergent high. That's what I often talk about why and um either way but we did go long the other day on that 25 % drop. I think it's a little bit overdone. So I'm betting the good, most of the bad news was priced into that pre-announcement caught a lot of folks off guard. Uh, so, uh, we haven't closed below there yet today. We're on track to right now. We're a little bit below there. So again, I'm going to reiterate you do you officially, these stops are suspended.

[00:35:47]They will be reinstated tomorrow. What does that mean tomorrow? If we close below that line and you could risk an even bigger gap down on IBM. We already had the biggest single day drop in the history of the stock. And this is big blue. This stock's been around since what the fricking sixties right here, 1960 something. And again, I might've misread that wrong.

[00:36:09]I believe I read that was a single biggest day drop and this stock's been through every bear market and just about anybody alive today that has witnessed. again, maybe that stat was wrong. Um, but either way, that's it. So, um, you know, I'm betting a lot. And hopefully then some of the bad news was priced into that single day big drop there. And again, the stop will be reinstated tomorrow because they're going to report today after the bell. so um because as I said, things breakouts and breakdowns, breaks of support resistance that happened right before earnings, you know, the few days leading to an earnings report. My experience, those breakouts have a much, much higher rate of failing. They don't mean as much. Kind of take them with a grain of salt. What I like to do, and I'll tell you now, this is another strategy I've shared with you uh subscribers many times over the years. On my trades, if you follow me for a while, you know I'm a huge massive component, a proponent, I'm sorry, of OCO orders. One cancels the other. Some brokers call them OCA's. One cancels the other or one cancels another. Same thing. When you take a position, we bought IBM, wherever it was, right here at support with a stop on a daily close below 208.82. The minute you buy the stock, you turn around, you place an OCO order, which are two orders. It's a sell limit order looking for a bounce back to 234.78. A little shy. Remember, my price targets are always the actual resistance. Sell just a hair below that 234.62, somewhere around there.

[00:37:59]I may even add to it if it has a positive result because there's still a big, I mean, I'm not looking for a gap backfill, but we do have another potential target right here at 243. I'm going to tick that number up just to make it round. And then you'd sell a little bit below that.

[00:38:14]It's that reaction low. All right, so an OCO order where I'm going with that is you always set them your both of them the the profit taking order which on a long trade would be a Sell limit order slightly below 234 78 right here and a stop that's based on a daily close now Some trading platforms don't have that option. So you just have to manually do that if you get the close below it A lot of times I'll just have a stop below a certain level. This order, I'm sorry, the profit taking order I always set to allow to be filled in the after hours or outside of the regular trading session. Why? Because around earnings, especially you get all that extra volatility. If you've traded for a while and you know what I'm talking about, stocks can shoot up huge and then drop, go the other way after the conference call. My goal on any trade is to hit my price target. I have dual goals to hit my price target and to not be stopped out. So I want to take advantage of that, that after hours noise and big wild swings, cause it's lower volume to have a potential pop that may get faded to fill my order. However, I'm not going to allow it again. It's on a closing basis anyway. So it really wouldn't matter there. Anyways, that order wouldn't be filled. But I will usually set my stop loss order, especially if it's an intraday, just a regular level stop at one 90 or whatever that number was two eight 82. I don't check that order that stop loss order to be filled outside of the regular trading hours because I don't want a knee jerk reaction and earnings to shake me out and get stopped out. And look by doing that, cuts both ways because sometimes the stock will keep going. There's no perfect. one size fits all solution. I'm just sharing my strategy with you. And like anything else, IBM should be one single trade. If you are risk adverse, don't hold a stock going into earnings. We also was a catch a falling knife trade, as I said, to begin with. So there are 101 reasons that no matter what IBM does tomorrow, if you're in it, you shouldn't feel a lot of pain. Um, you know, unless the stock drops 90 % and you, know, it's not going to do that. Alright moving on we're almost done guys two more At least after the bell today Texas Instruments on that one I have oh an IBM I'm calling up obviously that's why I'm suspending the stop It's still alongside trade, so I'm calling that one up after earnings Texas Instruments uh I'm calling down with a low degree of confidence we are coming off a um uh series of divergent highs. We had a beautiful bearish rising wedge breakdown.

[00:41:07]It played out very well. The stock dropped 13 % almost right there and we pushed up, uh made a marginal new and still divergent high. These divergences just got even larger. And then we had an even bigger drop as usually is the case. That was about a 7 to 18 % drop.

[00:41:28]However, this is very good support. It keeps catching this level. I've gone over this chart with you recently when I've covered the semis. I do expect this to break ah in time, but support is support until broken. So I am calling it down based on the fact we're coming off of divergent high and I'm bearish and short the semis and including this one. However, you can see here there's the zero line. These are your bearish trends when the PPO is below there.

[00:41:54]All the big corrections in recent years. This stock just trades like a... You can play it like a grand piano trade so well to the technicals. Look at my chart here. Divergent high correction, divergent high two correction, divergent high three kept getting bigger. Big correction.

[00:42:12]We did have a divergent low there. It didn't play out. Uh, there's an example why, but we also never took out a downturn line. See part of the, um, know, divergence, you start looking for a turn, then you need a buyer sell signal. So there was a divergent load never played out. The stock bottomed out. And the trend indicator, had a little bit of a whips up, but right there you never crossed. So you never got that. And then right here, there, you got a bullish cross and you had a bullet, a beautiful, beautiful bearish rising wedge. Look at that counter trend rally. PPO said be long and strong throughout it. And then right there, boom, we had a sell signal breakdown of a super well-defined trend line. And from there, the stock fell 31%. Almost all of that was defined by the PPO crossing down into bearish territory, put in a divergent low breakout. You get the point guys. This is swing trading. An investor over this period of time, if they held onto the stock has made 62 % a swing trader, even if you only captured a fraction of these, uh, moves, these trends bullish and bearish, uh, even if you only captured half of it, you would have blown those returns away. That's what this site's about. I do look at investments. Sometimes I analyze a stock or things longer term, give them my long-term outlooks. could have been longer term wheat and corn and soybeans for a long time. And they're just still getting going. They're profitable, but you know, I'll share those long-term positions. but, uh, certain stocks are swing tradable and that's what this one is. Um, and that's it. So yeah, I'm calling it down, but, but I can't call it with a high degree of confidence. Why? Because look, this PPO is still here. The zero line when you're above it will often act as support. But the takeaway guys, we get, if we, this stock goes down after earnings, which I am calling it down with the low degree guy, because it's in, I've covered this in other videos with the semis. I think this is where we go. You got a big, big gap right here. Massive gap. See that gap. So that's your first target. First target or supports 274.90 ish then 259.85. And then if the gap gets entered, which I believe it will ultimately, whether we bounce first or not, probably get at least a little reaction there.

[00:44:31]This is where I'm calling Texas Instruments down to, and I have been in recent videos.

[00:44:35]Hence the reason I'm calling it down after earnings. think earnings have the potential to be the catalyst. Bounces here, we maybe go up. Who knows? Maybe we go and extend these divergences in three, four five months. I'm still talking about those targets just from a higher level.

[00:44:50]As of now, we're to call it down. Again, not with the highest degree of confidence, but that's where I think it goes. then URI United rentals, another stock that trades very well to the technicals, Divergent high drop, Divergent low right here. So your positive divergence rally, beautiful textbook, bearish rising wedge, Divergent high sell signal came right there on the breakdown was right around that 1,010 level. Let's round that off. bugging me all these lines keep coming in one penny off a round number. Uh, boom, dropped a 36%. That drop ended both at a beautiful, beautiful uptrend line, primary uptrend line off the 2022 lows bounce, positive divergence gave us this bounce here, but we have another bearish rising wedge, just like we had a bearish rising wedge here, just like we had one here. I didn't, wasn't tracking the stock back then, but there was your uptrend line breakdown. Watcher and Serpete guys swing trading and it's one already broke down recently. It's back testing. This was a major one to all time high breakout. If it fails at then that means this breakout to all time highs was a false breakout. Barish get the two hundreds here. First support level 99, 07 85 second 82 39. Then this very significant uptrend line. So if it breaks that that's going to be more bearish. Um, I can't get. too aggressive on my call because we are the PPO right now.

[00:46:24]This trend is bullish and we could get a bounce off and it's at support. However, I'm going to call that one down as well. I usually don't call so many down when I go through these, but that's the way I'm seeing it right now. Unfortunately, as I said, most of these, I'm calling down with either a medium to low degree of confidence because they are in most of them in larger. up trends, even if they've recently triggered a sell signal and a lot of the trend indicators are just currently testing. So we're kind of at an inflection point. And so far there's been the majority of companies have been beating earnings, we was usually the financials and they did, they always do and did report first. There's still some regionals trickling out some other financials. um We should probably wrap it up here. Let's do that. Although we have Nokia tomorrow. So let me just go over that. Nokia already put in a big divergent high right there. It's already gotten the snot knocked out of it and it came back. hit the 200 day moving average too oversold for me to call that one down. mean, it was a, you know, which I was watching it here. He had a nice clean bearish rising wedge, divergent high stocks already fallen 44%. It's chopped in half. I'm not going to call that one down anymore.

[00:47:43]I wouldn't buy it yet. If it hits this trend line and the 200 simple I might buy it um But we're oversold but you know oversold is not a buy signal We got we're oversold right here at that point the stock had already fallen but guess what it got a lot more oversold So remember divergences Just like overbought and oversold are not buy and sell signals. I'm gonna repeat that because I do often positive and negative divergences oversold and overbought conditions are not buy and sell signals. They are conditions. However, they are conditions. When I get those conditions, that's when I start to look for buyer sell signals. So when a stock starts to become oversold or overbought, when it comes oversold, I'll start to look for uh pullbacks to support to buy it or breakout above a trend line. Let's say we go a little lower. Let's say something like this. The stock could come in here. Maybe we, uh, in a couple of months, we'd start getting positive divergence. You don't have to have positive divergence by the way, guys, lot of stocks will end just on just an oversold reading. Um, but usually you get oversold and then a little more oversold the next, a little less oversold. I'm sorry.

[00:49:02]The next time that's positive divergence. Those are some of my favorite, um, bottoming plays right there. Okay. So I'm going to stop here. I think we've covered enough for now. And yeah, yeah, we're 49 minutes into this. So I'll do the same thing tomorrow since we have several more of the big market leading stocks coming up. And we'll just touch on how these did, even though that's just the next day. And then I'll follow up again, maybe a week or so later.

[00:49:33]If I forget to feel free to bump me say, Hey, Randy, let's do an update on those stocks, you know, you called for earnings. And I'm only going to do it, you know, this week or maybe in the next. All right, this has been Randy Pinney with Right Side Of The Chart. Have a great day.