The Next Bull Market Theme in India | 2026–2030 Strategy

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-23

[00:00:03]And what about investment themes each decade? Because there have been interesting [music] themes that have popped up every decade. What do you think is going to be the big investment theme? I mean you're absolutely right.

[00:00:15]Every I don't think every decade, but every bull market Okay.

[00:00:19]>> has a theme that you will latch on to you make very serious amounts of money.

[00:00:23]>> [music] >> So for example, in '92 you latched on to the cement boom, in 2000 to the tech boom, in 2008 to the infrastructure boom. So every bull market has So So does this bull market have it. But I think now that we are well within the frame of bull market that started during the COVID lows, I would say looking ahead to the next year or two, three years, [music] we try to come with some intellectual hypothesis what we think the market will favor over the next two years or three years out there. And I have three hypothesis, working hypothesis. Once we have this hypothesis, we believe the hypothesis, we try and find stocks that fit that. So [music] I think the first hypothesis of one is that defense is going to be a big theme. I think everyone has realized after the Ukraine war and after the Iran-US conflagration that every country needs to be dependent >> [music] >> locally for defense materials. You're no longer going to get cruise missiles or Patriot missiles or from Russia [music] or from America. So I think the defense industry will boom. So I think they first played out in the public sector stocks because they had dominant shares in the defense industry. But now increasingly private sector companies are doing well in that matter. So the first hypothesis would be defense. The second hypothesis is that everyone wants to localize the supply chain. No one is willing to now rely on a supply chain extending to China or Australia or Indonesia or Europe. You want to localize. So whether [music] it's mining, whether it's metals, whether it's minerals, all of that will tend to do well because I think Mr. Modi spoke of Atmanirbhar Bharat before that the talk was self-reliant. I think there's a whole new twist to it. I think a lot of companies that are what they call heavy [music] assets low obsolescence.

[00:02:00]We used to always worship at the altar of the low obsolescence software type of intellectual property stocks. But I think the world is changing because of what Trump is doing. And the third part is what I think worries the market a lot is this AI thing. So you want to build [music] a portfolio that's anti or anti AI or not affected by AI, let me put it this way.

[00:02:21]>> [music] >> And I think the best thing that occurs to me is infrastructure. If you go to infrastructure, that will be used as pump priming to boost the economy if it goes slow down. It's not affected by oil prices, and it's not affected by AI. So I think those are the three silos that we're looking on for the next two or three years. [music] Okay, that's a bull market team that you're looking at.

[00:02:41]>> Exactly.

[00:02:42]>> Okay.

[00:02:42]Uh but I also want to So let's pick [music] up on one of these themes and defense since you spoke of. I'd say that's a gem that you picked up, uh you know, back in the time of liberalization when [music] PSU defense stocks were so much cheaper than they're trading at right now. But for someone watching this interview, [music] they say, "Hey, we missed the bus or we didn't pick it up at the right time." What are you telling them to do now? I want to It's a truism in market that when a bull market begins [music] and when a bull market ends, the stocks that you bought when the bull markets began and end are totally different in my understanding. [music] For example, when I was a young lad and I joined the Bombay Stock [music] Exchange, you had ECC in a bull market, and the stock was maybe at 300 bucks, and I could [music] send the lowest jobber in my office and he could buy 25,000 shares without moving the price. It was that liquid a stock.

[00:03:34]In the next 4 years of the bull market ended, the stock went from 300 to 10,000 [music] rupees, okay? So there is the It is very It's a falsity to say that the prices are too high or too low in a bull market. You never know what happens to stock prices.

[00:03:50]>> [music] >> So having said that, would I bet on the defense theme that we bet on say 3 years ago? Probably not. I think what this Iran war and what the Ukraine war has taught us is that asymmetrical warfare is going to be the new buzzword.

[00:04:04]So, you don't necessarily need While you do need cruise ships and you do need cruise missiles and you need Hindustan Aeronautics, you also need people who make drones, people who make smart ammunitions, people who make $20,000 ships that can ram a bigger ship. So, there's a lot of opportunity in explosives, in logistics, in drones.

[00:04:23]So, we would start looking at those sectors, but I think overall defense would do well. So, you're saying [music] even at a time when there is a a solid bull market run, you don't look at the prices, you bet on the theme. You bet on theme. I think looking at the prices gives us some sort of inertia. It's gone up too much, I can't buy But who says the stock can't go up 20x or 30x, you know, who knows that?

[00:04:44]Okay, and the other theme that you have spoken about before is digitisation, [music] you know, moving from the Flintstones to the Jetsons as you call it.

[00:04:53]But would you say that given that now globally we've seen tech stocks really dominate the market capitalization, is that dangerous territory to be in? And what do you make of Indian IT [music] back home?

[00:05:05]I think there seems to be a problem.

[00:05:09]I think the fact that for 30 years since Infosys went public, we worshipped on the altar of software as eating [music] the world, software being asset light model, software not being affected by the oil crisis. But you finally have some super intelligent guys at Anthropic come up with software that is written for free. So, essentially you took the most prized commodity and made it free, as happens in the world so many times. So, I think that is a risk to the software. But having said that, I think I think personally at this point market is throwing the baby [music] out with the bathwater. I think there's reason to believe that uh these companies are not going to fall off a cliff. Let me give you an example.

[00:05:48]Uh when the >> [clears throat] >> ATM machine was invented in the '80s, [music] people thought the teller jobs would be obsolete. But they didn't become obsolete, you know, they just complemented the teller job, the ATM job. [music] You use banking at 6:00, you went to an ATM machine as opposed to a teller.

[00:06:03]You're in a hurry, you use an ATM machine. But what made the teller obsolete was the iPhone. When you electronic banking, then you don't need the teller anymore, okay? So it will take some time to play out. I think uh perhaps writing off too much in a hurry uh the software business. You know, I think uh there are serious implications for it, but I'm not sure. I think it's just today the bright shiny object, so everyone is scorning it a little bit, but I think maybe it's a bit as Mark Twain said, the rumors of his death are a bit premature.

[00:06:34]Okay, so is the market being a bit too harsh when [music] it comes to IT? And what have you made of Indian IT companies? Are we smelling the coffee?

[00:06:40]Are we waking [music] up to the big changes happening? Or are we still living in the Stone Age? I think some of them are.

[00:06:46]Some of them have made public pronouncements that even at the cost of cannibalizing [music] revenue, they are pushing AI.

[00:06:52]Uh I think did we miss the bus? Yes, we missed the bus in the sense that instead of paying the hefty dividends and buybacks, they could have bought a lot of uh beaches into [music] these companies, which they did. But having done that, I you know, I mean here here's a stat that surprised [music] me when I was reading about all this.

[00:07:10]That Anthropic, which is of course the poster boy for AI, uses sales force to run its business. If it was so easy to create code, they would create a code for themselves and the business. So they will there will be a period of coexistence, and I think uh the Indian IT guys will fight back. It will be a changed company, but I think the overall the market will expand in the next 3 to 5 years. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.