US-Iran War At Point Of No Return? | America's 'Forever Wars' | Tehran | Trump

追加: 2026-05-24

[00:00:03][music] >> Hello and welcome. You're watching Fault Lines. I'm Gauri Dwivedi. A show where we track the fault lines that are shaping our world from battlefield escalations to summit diplomacy. [music] From economic coercion to strategic realignments. We decode the forces that are transforming the global order and what they mean for India and the world.

[00:00:24]This weekend on the show, has the US-Iran war now become America's next forever war? 84 days and counting and still no political end game in sight whatsoever. Are we now looking at another long war of attrition? And we tell you what that means.

[00:00:41]Just days after Donald Trump wrapped up his high stakes Beijing visit, well Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin.

[00:00:48]Unmistakable optics, messaging even clearer. Can China truly balance both sides? And what does it mean for the world? Special report coming up. And finally, is the Quad still alive? US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in India for the Quad summit at the foreign minister's level. But what exactly is the mission of the grouping now? What should the summit hope to achieve? All that and much more lined up on this edition of Fault Lines.

[00:01:17]The first story this week on the show, has the US-Iran war become America's next forever war? We ask this question because what began as a rapid military escalation is now beginning to resemble something far more dangerous and far more prolonged. That is a war of attrition with no visible exit ramp right now. The battlefield is expanding beyond missiles and air strikes. The costs are in fact exploding beyond military numbers. Oil prices, shipping lanes, inflation, global markets, all of them are now very much stakeholders in this conflict. And perhaps the most important aspect is neither Washington nor Tehran appear ready for any sort of not surrender but at least compromise, at least meet the other side midway. In strategic circles, experts are now openly drawing comparisons with America's past forever wars, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam. And has the Iran war actually now crossed that threshold and reached that point of no return. The US insists it isn't that situation right now. Listen in.

[00:02:25]forever war. We're going to take care of business and come home. That's what the president's promised and that's what exactly what he's going to deliver.

[00:02:33]But the devil actually lies in detail, viewers. You see, the war began on the 28th of February this year after coordinated US Israeli strikes on Iran.

[00:02:43]On 23rd of May, the war has entered its 84th day. 84 days and counting and no clear end game in sight. Let's tell you exactly what all has been in the kind of spending. The Pentagon says that the estimate is at about just 29 billion dollars. That's what the Pentagon's official estimate is. But there are analysts who believe that the real burn is far higher. In fact, there's a Harvard Kennedy School estimate that puts the cost at 2 billion dollars a day. And 84 84 days, you're actually talking about 170 billion dollars. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

[00:03:20]Several experts now warn that if the conflict expands, drags on, the final could be could actually be resembling probably close to the Iraq number, Afghanistan scale of spending, potentially even nearing that trillion dollar mark. And make no mistake, American consumers are feeling the pinch. They are feeling the pressure.

[00:03:39]Analysts estimate 35 billion dollars in additional gas and diesel costs that have been linked to this conflict-driven energy spike. 144 billion dollars is what is it on the other side. And that's where we want to now tell you that the Iranian wartime spending is no less.

[00:03:56]Though, of course, it's a little hard to quantify because Tehran really doesn't publish transparent military accounts, but we are going by what analysts are estimating. They say that billions of dollars have been spent, whether it's on missiles, whether it's on drone ops, whether it's on economic shutdown losses. You add up all of it, infrastructure destruction, and you get a figure that's equally staggering. That is about $144 billion. Estimates are cited by the Foundation for Air Defense of Democracies, FDD, a very prominent think tank in Washington, D.C. And one of the most striking projections that suggest Iran may actually be spending, or has already done, about $144 billion.

[00:04:34]Now, what is it that equal to? It is roughly 40% of Iranian pre-war GDP. And as per estimates referenced by CFR, nearly 1 million jobs may have been impacted, lost inside Iran due to the war economy. As I said, these are just some of the back-of-the-envelope calculations. It gets worse from here on. Trump still maintains that if he doesn't get 100% good answers from Iran, then his forces are ready to go in once again. As I said, there is no climb down, there is no off-ramp. Listen in to the president of the United States.

[00:05:09]I very uh it's right on the borderline, believe me.

[00:05:14]If we don't get the right answers, it goes very quickly. We're all ready to go.

[00:05:18]Uh we have to get the right answers. It would have to be a complete 100% good answers. And if we do, we save a lot of time, energy, and lives, most importantly.

[00:05:31]And now, here's the thing. America entered this conflict promising deterrence. In fact, Iran entered it promising resistance. But after more than, as I said, 84 days and counting, the world is now confronting a far more uncomfortable possibility that this may no longer be a short conflict with a clear objective but the beginnings of another long war with no clear ending in sight.

[00:05:58]In fact, fueling fears that this conflict could spiral into another forever war is Donald Trump's latest digital provocation. The US president actually shared a fictional AI-generated map of the entire Middle East showing American dominance across the region and an aggressive red arrows that actually pointed directly at Iran. This was posted on Truth Social alongside the warning that said the clock is ticking for Tehran. The graphic has been seen as a new phase of psychological warfare as diplomacy pretty much continues to collapse. This report tells you more.

[00:06:38]This map is now at the center of a growing geopolitical storm.

[00:06:42]Posted by Donald Trump on Truth Social, the AI-generated graphic shows the Middle East covered with an American flag and multiple red arrows aimed directly at Iran.

[00:06:55]Soon after the post, Trump doubled down with a direct threat to Tehran. The US president warned that the clock is ticking and said Iran must move fast toward a deal or risk being left with nothing.

[00:07:10]The language marked another sharp escalation in tensions already pushing the region deeper into uncertainty.

[00:07:18]But Tehran responded with mockery instead of retreat.

[00:07:23]Soon after Trump's post went viral, Iranian-linked accounts released a video appearing to ridicule the American president's AI war map. Animated characters were shown washing away the threats before the clip transitioned into a galaxy-themed Iranian flag.

[00:07:41]The caption read, Trump threats on a map. We brought a galaxy." Iran also made it clear that dialogue would not mean surrender. Officials in Tehran warned that any new aggression would be met with a stronger response.

[00:07:56]The rhetoric is hardening, the military planning is expanding, and the psychological battle is intensifying by the day.

[00:08:04]Which raises an increasingly uncomfortable question for the world.

[00:08:09]Is this conflict moving toward resolution or drifting into another endless war?

[00:08:15]V R Reporter, NDTV World.

[00:08:22]Well, viewers, let's tell you more what happens with Donald Trump's repeated provocations. What exactly is happening right now? Is the global map being redrawn? And Washington essentially holding the eraser? Well, forget diplomatic niceties or backroom negotiations. In less than 2 years of being in power, in fact, the second Trump administration has executed a scorched-earth foreign policy that leaves decades of international trust pretty much in tatters.

[00:08:50]Talk strikes in West Asia, or you talk about economic warfare against America's closest neighbors, no one is safe.

[00:08:57]Traditional alliances are now standing and holding by a thread. This is a global shake-up that has pushed the world to the absolute [music] brink. As I said, the map provocation in Middle East is just half of the story. The remaining half is what we are telling now. Eight global powers just saw their relationships tattered overnight because of the kind of provocations that Donald Trump has come out with. Let's tell you more on that. What exactly, and which are those world leaders that have been at the receiving end of Donald Trump's repeated provocations? Well, uh there is of course first and foremost, you have Ukraine, which has seen its aid being frozen and forced territorial concessions, and a war that is not ending because of these kind of provocations that come from Donald Trump. Next is Canada. Tariffs and suspended defense cooperation. Canada is America's closest ally and this is what the new normal is. Let's tell you more about Mexico. Another country very [music] close to America both from a cultural and also a trade point of view.

[00:09:58]In fact, the import tariffs and deportation pressures have played havoc with the relationship there as well.

[00:10:06]India has also seen fair bit of ups and downs with regard to the US relationship because of the tariffs that have come in and also the geopolitical rifts that have been there in the past as well.

[00:10:18]Venezuela, targeted unilateral military interventions really changed the relationship completely. The new normal is an America installed head of state in Venezuela. Uh Denmark, that is of course the Greenland annexation threats and coercion. They They have been put on the you know back burner but make no mistake, [music] it can come back to become the forefront of Donald Trump's policy foreign policy anytime. For Colombia, it's deportation disputes and trade threats that are now dictating its view with regards to America. And lastly, European Union. Well, I'm not even talking about how J.D. Vance actually lectured European leaders last year at the Munich Security Conference.

[00:11:00]In fact, there's coercive threats, there are tariff threats that pretty much now decide which way this transatlantic relationship goes from here.

[00:11:09]And if you take off your blinkers, viewers, make no mistake, the world order at the old world order is pretty much gone. Treating foreign policy as a high-stakes corporate takeover [music] is what Donald Trump does best. This is not another episode of Donald Trump's Apprentice. The White House has isolated its closest friends, backed its adversaries into dangerous corners, dictated terms through economic warfare, and unilateral military strikes that have changed the game completely. Keep your eyes on the global stage because the real fallout from these broken ties hasn't even begun.

[00:11:47]All right, I'm slipping into a very short break. We come back on the other side tell you more about the optics behind Xi Jinping rolling out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin. What does it all add up to? You get those details on [music] Fault Lines. Stay with us.

[00:12:02]>> [music] [music] >> The Great Hall of the People hosted two very different visitors this week. First was Donald Trump and then Vladimir Putin. Same venue, just days apart. The optics were deliberate. The message coming in from Beijing unmistakable, viewers.

[00:12:30]Putin and Xi signed more than 40 pacts.

[00:12:33]There was trade, there was technology, there was energy on the table. The centerpiece, a nearly 10,000-word joint statement on nuclear security and Taiwan. In fact, Xi warned of unilateral and hegemonic countercurrents.

[00:12:48]Putin declared a stabilizing role on the global stage. This is not just diplomacy. This is also a coordinated signal of Russia and China against US and the Western world. Listen in to what the Russian president said on Chinese soil.

[00:13:05]За 25 лет основополагающего договора о добрососедстве, дружбе и сотрудничестве [music] российско-китайское взаимодействие значительно расширилось.

[00:13:15]>> [music] >> Настроены и дальше в таком же ключе работать совместно.

[00:13:21]Будем развивать наше сотрудничество и в двустороннем плане и активно работать на международных площадках.

[00:13:28]>> Mhm.

[00:13:29]There is a military dimension to this partnership. There is a deep economic side to this partnership. Russia now imports over 90% of the Western sanctioned technology via China. You talk about components that are feeding its drone production and defense industries. Drone has in fact been a very major part of its operation, its war with Ukraine. In fact, Beijing calls itself neutral when it comes to Ukraine.

[00:13:55]But neutrality that actually fuels one side's war machine has a very different name when it comes to strategic vocabulary, viewers.

[00:14:04]Now, as far as Xi Jinping is concerned, the game plan is pretty clear. There are three moves that Xi Jinping was attempting to make, and some would say he's been success successful there as well. First and foremost, he's really keeping Washington guessing here. He's hosting Trump, then he's hosting Putin.

[00:14:20]The signal is that neither of the two blocks can actually afford to ignore China or in fact keep them exclusive.

[00:14:29]The second important part is that Xi Jinping, ever since he came to power in 2013, has been building a parallel economic order. The Russia-China trade actually is upwards of $240 billion.

[00:14:42]Up another 20% in just the first 4 months of this year. So, you see where that parallel economic order is actually being built. And the third important part is both sides are of course not trying to push that multipolarity key aspect to it without really firing a shot. The joint declaration wraps it in the language of sovereignty, territorial integrity, but it essentially provides Beijing the kind of cover that it needs as it binds Moscow closer in its ecosystem. One crack though does exist, viewers, and that's the important part because remember, this is Fault Lines, and we always bring that out for you.

[00:15:18]Both sides failed to agree on a timeline for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. In fact, she knows that Russia needs China far more than China needs Russia and he's in no hurry to let Putin ever forget that.

[00:15:33]And lastly, let's tell you what exactly each of the two sides actually walked away with after those optics ended. As far as Donald Trump is concerned, well, he got those trade talks, he got those 40 plus agreements, he got those In fact, he got trade talks and tariff policies and he got the kind of photo ops that he needed. As far as Putin is concerned, he got those maximum number of pacts, he got multipolar declaration and the larger energy alignment that is actually going to be extremely significant going forward.

[00:16:08]All right, let's now move to the other important story on the broadcast this week. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in India for the Quad Summit, a meeting that once symbolized a growing coalition to balance China's rise and hegemonic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.

[00:16:25]But this time, the summit comes with a larger geopolitical question that's really hanging over it, which is the relevance of Quad, the future direction that it will take given the present geopolitical conditions that are operating. Donald Trump is now directly engaging with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He was there in China just a couple of days back and he's attempting to stabilize the US-China bilateral relationship. Then what exactly will the role of Quad be in such a global scenario?

[00:16:57]Now for years, the Quad was widely seen as a strategic response to China's expanding presence, its hegemonic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. The grouping was revived in 2017 amidst growing concerns over Chinese naval expansion and response to militarization in the South China Sea.

[00:17:15]The pushback against Beijing's Belt and Road was another key aspect of why Quad came together. It was a counter pressure on Taiwan as well and combat increasing tensions along the several other countries that have been impacted by China's hegemonic rise.

[00:17:31]The core idea essentially was maintain a free, open, rules-based Indo-Pacific.

[00:17:37]But a decade later, critics argue that the Quad still remains more of a strategic consultative platform than anything more than what is needed. This is criticism, well, and a lot of it is because for one, the grouping is not a formal defense grouping like like a NATO. And this is something that India has been clear about, which is why there is no joint military command. There is no binding obligation to respond during a military conflict. When it comes to natural disasters and vaccines, they come together, but for military conflict, there is no clarity. So, if a crisis actually erupts over Taiwan, will the four nations act collectively? No, they will not. And that is due to the differing national priorities of its members. So, while the Quad is strategically aligned, it remains operationally fragmented. More so now than what it was in the past, and that is where the biggest twist comes in.

[00:18:33]Trump's recent outreach to Xi Jinping projected softer optics. It projected direct engagement and an attempt at stabilizing the relationship, raising critical questions for the Quad. If Washington itself is trying to reduce tensions with Beijing, then Quad now have to reflect those changed geopolitical realities. Or rather, if the tensions between US and China ease, will the urgency behind the Quad also fade away? The answer will decide the future direction and relevance of this very group.

[00:19:08]And now to the fault line we often don't speak about, one that does continue to exist and needs to be decoded. That is the presence, the rise of Israeli far-right, and how it impacts and changes Middle East politics. Well, we are talking about the intense global outrage that's mounting over Israel's national security minister, and in fact, allied and international governments are demanding immediate answer after Ben-Gvir published a highly controversial video showing the rough treatment, public humiliation of captured Gaza aid flotilla activists.

[00:19:43]World leaders are calling the display both monstrous and inhuman, a move that has sparked a severe rift within the Israeli government itself. This report tells you more.

[00:19:59]Global condemnation is mounting over video footage posted online by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

[00:20:07]The material shows the rough treatment and public humiliation of hundreds of detained global Sumud Flotilla activists.

[00:20:15]Captioned "Welcome to Israel", the footage shows Ben-Gvir taunting over 400 foreign nationals. He labeled the human rights workers as terror supporters, while demanding they be thrown into high-security prisons.

[00:20:29]Allied nations responded swiftly.

[00:20:31]Italy's Giorgia Meloni was among the first to slam Ben-Gvir.

[00:20:35]Spain's foreign ministry blasted the display as disgraceful.

[00:20:39]Canadian officials condemned the treatment as abominable.

[00:20:42]While Turkey has slammed it as evidence of a barbaric mentality, France has already moved to summon the Israeli ambassador in protest. The video is also causing severe internal fractures within Israel's own government.

[00:20:55]In a rare public rebuke, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has accused Ben-Gvir of inflicting profound damage on the state, writing online, "No, you're not the face of Israel."

[00:21:05]Activists inside the facility have now launched a hunger strike over their interception.

[00:21:10]We heard many stories of a lot of violence. We know of at least two participants who were hospitalized. They had to be taken to hospital to get their treatment. Both of them were shot by a rubber bullets for no reason without any justification.

[00:21:30]We've heard many complaints about possible break in the ribs. We've met people who were a lot of pain.

[00:21:40]With multiple European and North American countries summoning envoys, the political fallout continues to isolate Jerusalem.

[00:21:54]Well, that's all we could pack in this edition of Fault Lines. Thanks so much for watching.

[00:22:07]>> [music]