Everyone Will Be Shocked by SILVER... Michael Oliver; _the majority of investors still fail to notic

本站添加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Welcome back to Goldrush Reporter.

[00:00:02]The channel where we break down the real truth behind gold, silver, inflation, market manipulation, and wealth protection. No hype, no fantasy price targets, just real analysis from a long-term precious metals perspective.

[00:00:16]That rocket launch site at Cape Canaveral is old. Apologies for the mishap, but it ascended and then descended to the pad. All right. If all I did was look at price charts, I'd be watching that. However, momentum leads us to believe it is highly probable.

[00:00:30]Disaster could strike just below returning to that range when it does occur.

[00:00:35]So, what exactly is going to capture the interest of the stock market all of a sudden? The market for government bonds.

[00:00:41]The nuclear incident has already taken place, and it will affect other markets.

[00:00:45]However, it will eventually become apparent. Everyone seems to be focusing on our profits, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors, but no one seems to be talking about the government's role in this market. I believe gold is involved in this. The metals have been rising for a decade because they anticipate its rise. Now, I predict that the stock market as a whole is about to experience a parabolic expansion. It seems like it's on top. Just like in 2007, there's a process where you get this distribution. You can kind of see it in the market where they're selling and there's like a ceiling. Then they punch through it and usually say, "Oh boy, we're going up forever." In this case, I thought it was topping early last year, but it has since gone up.

[00:01:26]All right. And in this instance, they skewed the truth by making fun of the war news distributors. Hope the China news fades. They run mellows, the problem disappears, and everything is happy again. The few sectors that have achieved new highs are showing signs of strength. So, let's see what happens when the market peaks. It would be beneficial for everyone to simply pull up a monthly chart of the S&P 500, for example. Then pull up monthly charts of the following major sectors: banking, finance, industrials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare, and so on. Then, look at the S&P chart and ask what caused that.

[00:02:03]The other industries aren't experiencing the same level of success as Nvidia AI and semiconductors. They haven't made any new highs. In fact, they're closer to their recent lows. Like the S&P 500's return to about 650 than they were 6 months or even a year ago. They resemble that more. Something is clearly amiss as indicated by the even more apparent price. You're down to very few liters.

[00:02:26]Whenever I glance at the semis, which I don't do very often, there was a clear price chart pattern that we don't usually pay much attention to. But, it resembles a blow-off top.

[00:02:35]In this pattern, there was a huge surge followed by 3 months of violent consolidation during which you held onto your gains as seen in the SOX index, for example. And then you suddenly burst out of this consolidation with an equal surge to the one you had in the first half.

[00:02:50]It's like a typical swing move, but it also looks like a blow-off. That is to say, despite its extreme strength, it resembles the verticality that occurs at the very end of an overextended market or sector. Yet, I am still waiting for the stock market to take a turn for the worst.

[00:03:06]I believe the proof will be subtle. For example, if you examine the S&P Nasdaq, you'll see that it shares characteristics with a good 100. Imagine a scenario where there was a 6-month stretch of consistent selling between 69,000 and 7,000, like a haircut.

[00:03:21]Then there was a brief drip drop on the news that they were running something.

[00:03:25]So, they sold, pulled away from those lows, and blew out the high of that range at 6,300.

[00:03:31]We call that range of distribution zones.

[00:03:33]When someone said, "Hey, I'm out." the market would respond accordingly. "My time is up. My time is up. I'm out." and the market hit a ceiling. After that, you broke out. However, if that breakout doesn't last, which we doubt it will, you might reenter that price range, perhaps falling below $7,600.

[00:03:52]Getting back down there isn't a huge deal because we're now at 74 or something. That is known as, you may recognize it as the historic Cape Canaveral rocket launch. We call it a board. Oh, no. It's making its way back down to the pad after going up. In that case, the stock market will start paying attention to what Well, if I were merely observing price charts, I would be keeping an eye on that. However, there are momentum reasons to believe that this is likely to occur. And once it does, there's a potential disaster just below returning to that range.

[00:04:23]The government bond market.

[00:04:25]The nuclear event that's already unfolded, a major focus of the discussion, centers on the extraordinary rise of semiconductor stocks.

[00:04:32]Companies tied to AI computing cloud, infrastructure, and data centers have experienced rapid valuations fueled by demand for advanced chips.

[00:04:41]Firms connected to artificial intelligence are attracting enormous investor attention, especially as AI adoption accelerates worldwide.

[00:04:49]However, some market observers argue the sector's near vertical rise resembles speculative blow-off phases seen during previous bubbles. Technical blow-off phases seen during previous bubbles.

[00:05:00]Technical blow-off phases seen during previous bubbles. Technical blow-off phases. Analysts point to aggressive price surges followed by unstable consolidations as warning signs of overheating momentum. While AI remains transformational, history suggests that revolutionary technologies can still experience severe market corrections before achieving long-term stability and sustainable profitability.

[00:05:23]Well, Jamie Dimon, fundamentally speaking in Norway at a conference week and a half ago, said, "We'll get a bond my bond crisis government bond crisis coming."

[00:05:32]He didn't say anything about how we'll handle it in 10 years. You know, this 10 years, we're going to lower it for another 10 years. The situation has escalated to a critical point. And we know the Japanese are in the midst of a crisis.

[00:05:43]The prime minister, a conservative leader, has promised to print more and more paper as a remedy. When we examine 30-year bond futures, the end of the market that the Fed cannot influence, we find ourselves in the same technical position as our government. Bond prices and yields increased during the market crash of 2020-2022, although their rate variations and fluctuations in the economy have no bearing on that. After being over 190 for almost a year and a half, bond futures crashed to around 117, a precipitous drop of nearly 50%. Since late October 2022, when the market began to decline, a sideways line connecting the price and yield charts has formed at the upper level. Since then, prices have been stubbornly trying to break out of this impasse by forming a basing pattern from what could be a base. However, there have only been three major rally attempts, and according to our metrics, the most recent one ended approximately 2 months ago, and we expressed our concern. Once again, the Fed has no say in this. This guy is about to melt through the lows and yields through the highs. The only thing they can do is unleash the water cannons. But fighting inflation isn't even one of their mandates. They say they have to raise rates to combat inflation, but they're clearly confused about the relationship between the two. Instead, they focus on the stable unemployment rate, which has always been a precursor to stock market downturns. Information is revealed at a later time. Because of this, the Federal Reserve decided to begin purchasing bonds in November of last year, something I'm sure you brought up on your previous show, despite the fact that the Fed has a mandate. At this point, even the most evident price chart watchers and yield watchers are declaring that T-bonds have failed, as all they've managed to do is stall the drop. Some major banks, actually a large number of major banks and credit card corporations, are showing signs that something is going on in this area. In fact, they are contemplating. Therefore, it's not simply public debt. Private entities also have debt.

[00:07:35]This is on a much grander scale than the mortgage crisis of 2007-2009.

[00:07:40]Here we have the national debt. Aside from Japanese government bonds, no other market compares in size to this one.

[00:07:46]To the UK, you are like a bond. If this starts, and we contend that it has officially started, a surge in long-term yields and a price crackdown, two things will occur. It'll have wave effects, too. It'll cause the Fed to have to do that. Take action like get out some huge fire hoses, whatever policy they want to call it or do, and it will have an impact on other market and but it will it'll come to the fore. It's always been here, but everybody's ignored it. So, all they talk about are earnings and AI and semis, and nobody's talking about the government that that market. It's the end of the world type market. And I think gold does this. Like the monetary metals know what's going on, and that's why they've been going up for a decade now. It's coming and now I think they're about to go into a parabolic mode.

[00:08:31]The presentation then shifts toward what some economists consider the far bigger threat, the global bond market.

[00:08:36]Long-term government bond yields in the United States and other major economies have climbed sharply, signaling investor concerns about debt sustainability and inflation.

[00:08:46]Analysts warned that rising yields could trigger instability across monthly systems, pension funds, and financial markets.

[00:08:52]Unlike stock volatility, bond market stress directly affects borrowing costs for governments, corporations, and consumers.

[00:08:59]The discussion highlights fears that central banks may eventually be forced to intervene through large-scale money creation to stabilize debt markets.

[00:09:07]Critics argue this could weaken confidence in fiat currencies and intensify inflationary pressures worldwide.

[00:09:13]We don't have any technical argument for where it might go, except to say we know it's gone too far. And we know that any further will cause total public institutional investor doubt about the stability the place to be. You know, T-bonds used to be a place to be. Is it alternative, a safe place? And the CIO of Morgan Stanley several months ago said no 60/40 rule out the window. The timing is the issue. We argued that a warning signal appeared two months ago stating, "We're not going to hold." And sure enough, bond prices have fallen to multi-year lows. If we continue down this path, they will start to understand what's happening. But for now, it's not a problem. And where's it headed? It's just a feeling of what's happening. When the public and foreign governments have that feeling, it's like dump it. But the government can't do anything about it.

[00:10:00]They'd go bankrupt instead. They can't do that. So, the only thing they can do is print like the Japanese are doing.

[00:10:06]But then what? Now that we've covered the current investment issue, let's move on to another important theme. The long-term effects of monetary expansion.

[00:10:14]Critics say that after the pandemic, central banks dramatically increased the money supply to prop up economies and financial systems. But this had the unintended consequence of speeding up inflation and reducing the purchasing power of ordinary households. Inflation is defined as both higher consumer prices and the ongoing expansion of currency. Many investors are worried that future waves of money printing will further weaken savings and financial stability. The current topic of discussion is the relative value of several fiat currencies relative to the dollar. Basically, it's a contest to see whose paper currency is most useless.

[00:10:50]The dollar index is currently very weak relative to the euro, which makes up 70% of it. A year ago in March, it fell to 94.99, but it has been falling for three quarters of the year. The long-term momentum is completely broken with trend structures dating back 15 years. So, momentum says you're gone. Price is the only one trying to hold on. And every time there's an upswing, people soil the dollar strong. If you look back to 2015, when gold hit a low of 1,500 in December, where was the dollar index then?

[00:11:21]The current state of the dollar index has nothing to do with gold's trend. It merely serves as a proxy for other currencies that are depreciating. Sure, I'd predict another massive wave of selling for the dollar. Maybe down to 70 or so. But that's not a major factor influencing gold's price. The ongoing depreciation of the dollar, yen, euro, and pound due to constant monetary expansion is a driving force behind silver, gold, and the government debt crisis. Regardless of the higher returns, the government debt crisis is showing that that asset class is unstable and uncertain. Therefore, a wise person wouldn't put their money there just for the yield. A borrower who is unable to repay will print it. Well, consumer price indexes are just a mirror image of inflation.

[00:12:05]Stock prices, commodity prices, and the rate of depreciation of the money unit are all indicators of inflation, which is not really a phenomenon in and of itself, but rather the result of an ongoing increase in the money supply.

[00:12:18]Consider this.

[00:12:19]When your grandpa built a house, it cost $45,000.

[00:12:23]Your father spent $45,000, and today a median home costs $450,000.

[00:12:28]This is inflation.

[00:12:30]If you look at the percentage growth of M2 from 2000 to the present, the S&P has expanded at the same rate. Accordingly, the S&P has done little more than sit on its hands for the past 25 years in terms of actual purchasing power. Gold has fared much better, and silver is about to turn the corner on that matter. So, you haven't made much money.

[00:12:49]The money you have made is from a depreciating currency. All right. It appears like investors will be shifting their focus from stocks to cheaper commodities, such as petroleum, even after the recent spike.

[00:13:00]This is because commodities are a category that the Fed does not control, but investors do control. Whatever the case may be, I think that sums up my thoughts on inflation. By the way, are you bullish on gold? The price is currently trading about $4,600.

[00:13:15]Where do you think it will go from here?

[00:13:17]In the eight decades since its legalization, gold has experienced two bull markets, each with an eight-fold move from bear low to bull high. Our bear low is 1050. And if you do the math, something like 8,500 would just match the dimension of the bull market that peaked in 2011 or the one that peaked in 1980 in terms of multiple gain from bare low to bull high. Even JP Morgan put 9,200 on the table a few months ago.

[00:13:41]Then that would be boring. Even though I didn't read JP Morgan's assessment, I ran it through a third time and saw the final tally.

[00:13:49]It's probably fundamentally based with 9,200, which happens to be in that ballpark. I don't think gold will stop there. I think the crisis we're facing will take gold to some level that I can't predict.

[00:14:00]I don't have a target except to say a lot higher.

[00:14:03]The one I'm most focused on is silver because I think silver could go absolutely parabolic against this backdrop.

[00:14:09]Gold and silver are presented as alternative stores of value during periods of economic uncertainty.

[00:14:15]Supporters of precious metals argue that gold has historically protected wealth during inflationary cycles, currency devaluation, and debt crises.

[00:14:23]Analysts note that central banks worldwide, particularly in countries like China and Russia, have significantly increased gold purchases in recent years. Silver is also attracting attention because of its dual role as both a monetary metal and a critical industrial resource used in solar panels, electric vehicles, and advanced technologies.

[00:14:42]Some investors believe a shift away from overvalued equities and could eventually drive precious metals into a powerful long-term bull market and it shake enough other assets that people have been comfortable with because the Fed's been printing the money and making money free for 10 to 15 years. You know, you look at a Fed funds chart, go back 75 years, and get it from St. Louis Fed, and you've either been at a zero or you got up to all of 5% or so, and then back down to zero, and then back up to five.

[00:15:10]But if you look at that 15-16 year history since 2009 and compare it to the other 75 years, it's a joke. For almost 15 years, the money supply has been fraudulently manipulated to be very cheap.

[00:15:23]As a result, the majority of the liquidity flowed into stocks. However, as the investment public and asset managers realized that this strategy was no longer effective, the flow of liquidity left stocks. I'm going to move my money over there because it's working and because commodity prices, as well as gold and silver prices, are going up. If the stock market is shaky, the Fed will have more data points to work with, but it will also facilitate the transfer of the money it prints into the safe haven of monetary metals. That's why it's important to keep an eye on bonds. If they have an effect on stocks similar to what we expect, you'll find out by summer. Oh, so the money is moving from stocks to gold and monetary notes.

[00:16:02]In the last chapter, we look at the idea that the world economy could be going through a big shift. For a long time, low interest rates and cheap money drove a lot of growth in speculative assets, real estate and stocks. But now, investors are starting to question where their money should go in this time of geopolitical unpredictability, inflation, and slowing growth. Some experts think that money could start to shift away from high-risk technology speculation and toward commodities, energy, and hard assets. Whether these predictions come true or not, the debate reflects rising concerns about the stability of the present global financial system.