Strong swing to One Nation in Farrer by-election early counts

Added: 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]Tom Connell's with us. Tom >> Karen caught me on the hop there. Uh, let's have a look. First of all, I want to look at the overall. So, 12%'s been voted. These are primary votes. The 2CP always lags, but 12%'s been counted.

[00:00:12]This is what we're seeing tick up. Now, start we want Michelle Milthor if she's going to win. She wants to have at least a 10% swing towards probably a little bit more to be competitive. So, she's a little bit below that, but that's been trending up the bigger the boos have got. So that's why we weren't calling it over with those very early numbers that were good for One Nation. One Nation, what does its swing need to be? About 25% or a bit more is when it would be in the box seat. So it's clearly far outperforming. It's actually ticking up as we're going, but we still don't have Aubry seats in yet. When we look at the actual two candidate preferred, you can see it's very strong silver one nation, but it's come down. It started off at 75. Then I've gone to forecast. This is me applying a preference result to the rest of the primary vote that hasn't been counted. And you can see that's going down to 62. Now, obviously 62 is a thumping, but that's coming down all the time. So, this is why we need to get Griffith and mainly Albury to know that rate of how much that's coming down.

[00:01:07]Then we can figure out what's happening in the election overall. We do have some Griffith booths in. So, we'll go there because this is the second biggest town.

[00:01:15]So, Aubry's about 50,000 people, give or take, out of the total voting number of 120,000 and Griffith's 20,000. So, not small. These are not the biggest booths, but they're a decent size. This is quite a big one, Griffith East. This is good for One Nation cuz again, their swing, it's significantly more than that 25%, but it's decent for me Michelle Milford at 12%. So that that booth is not too bad for either of them. Um overall, you can see the Liberal Party still down 30% there. Peter's pointed out, you know, you can apply 10% to the NAT, so more like 20% overall, which is about how they're performing. So that's Griffith East and that's a decent size booth of what 1,200 votes or so. I'll go to the other Griffith booth that I saw in here which was Griffith West. This is actually a little bit smaller but better again for Michelle Milth because her swing to be competitive would be 10.

[00:02:05]Well 17 is outperforming that and then One Nation is a slight underperformance.

[00:02:10]So already once we've got to Griffith the nature of the contest has changed a bit. So that's why despite those very very early um big numbers for One Nation, we weren't just getting too carried away. I'll go back here. Okay, so 13.7 um I do want to have a look if we got any Aubry booths in cuz that's okay. Oh, there we go. Aubry East. Got a little bit excited there, didn't I? Um I'm just looking at these the same as the first time as you. Okay, so this is interesting. Only a 4% swing to Michelle Milthorp and an 18% swing to One Nation.

[00:02:41]Remembering they want she wants about 10. One Nation wants about 25. 15% down for the Liberal vote. Half that going to the NAT. So, how's that going to I don't think we'll have a 2 PP on that yet. No, we don't. But I would say look, that's an interesting first booth in Aubry because you would want to be outperforming if you're Michelle Milthor by more than that. Caveat being it's one of the smaller ones. You know, get to a really big Aubry one and it could make a difference. But that that's interesting.

[00:03:08]Okay. So the the the the very early signs there underperforming a little bit compared to what she'd want to do.

[00:03:13]Michelle Milthorp on that primary vote.

[00:03:15]So um the first Aubry booth in any more others there I can't see them. So yeah I'm going to go and gather my thoughts there Kieran. So yeah that's that's an interesting development that that Aubry one but we want to see a few more but Griffith as well showing this contest is is tightening there. So >> the huge trend towards One Nation overall in those outer areas is already reversing to a degree in the bigger areas. We'll see how much in the next >> scrutiny just sent me a message from Aubry North and that we haven't got a booth in yet, but the One Nation was ahead in the early numbers there.