LIVE: Makerfield By-Election Latest - Burnham in Pole Position

Ajouté : 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Afternoon everyone. Happy Friday. So, uh, going to start off, well, I say start off, I'm going to start off talking about the latest on the Makerfield bi-election.

[00:00:11]Bit of an update, uh, because it has been interesting, but there's a couple of little side questions that start.

[00:00:17]I'll start off with very quickly. Um, Matthew, they're saying, "Thought on Melbourne's report on youth unemployment. Some on the right now come for minimum wage to be abolished or reduced. They're also blaming immigrants for taking jobs from the youth." So, here's what I would say. If they're going to respond to Milbour's report, which explicitly states it, it describes many of the problems that have led to youth unemployment rising and none of them are immigration. And it makes it explicitly clear immigration is not a factor. And it should be obvious immigration is not a factor because over the last few years, immigration has crashed through the floor. It's close to negative now. net migration that is and yet youth unemployment has risen during that period. So it's like make your mind up. You cannot you cannot um cite a report and then come to very different conclusions particularly opposite conclusions. Uh but I am going to discuss the youth unemployment thing in a video I've done for tomorrow and we can always get time to talk more about it later today if you want. Um then the other thing is um Paul saying that does anyone know when the 24 hours for Farage and the five million ends? Is it sometime today? I I couldn't tell you. So yeah, Anna Turley, the Labour chair as I discussed in a video yesterday has given Nigel Farage 24 hours to call the police or she will.

[00:01:47]Um and but we don't know when it starts from because she's written a letter to him. So, was it 24 hours from the point at which she told the press? Well, probably not cuz that was like Thursday evening. Uh, no, Wednesday evening. Apologies. Um, was it from the, you know, was it from the day when she reckons the letter will have arrived? In which case, you know, that could be yesterday or it could be today. I don't know. So, I don't know. All we do know is that come Monday, I would say even though that'd be a very long 24 hours, but 24 hours is a long time in politics.

[00:02:23]Um if come Monday uh Farage hasn't demonstrated um that he has informed the authorities properly, then Anna Turley presumably will be doing. That's what she said. Uh, so I I will, I'm afraid, have to point out, however, this could be stunningly bad timing. I will not be able to blame them for disrespecting my schedule because I'm disrespecting my own schedule. Um, I'm doing a lot of work at the moment trying to get videos up to date because I'm off to London next week. So, there won't be a stream on Monday lunchtime. I'm in London for several days. I I It's very stressful.

[00:03:07]Um, but what it means is if there's any mad breaking news in the first half of next week, I'm not going to cover it.

[00:03:14]You're getting you're getting stuff that is topical, but it's not going to be right up to date if I'm honest for the first few days because I'm not back till Wednesday evening. I go on Sunday. I come back on Wednesday evening. But anyway, Makerfield, I want to have a just a little preview or review, sorry, review of Makefield because it's a very short campaign.

[00:03:36]In three weeks today, we'll know the result.

[00:03:41]In fact, in three weeks today, this stream will be talking about the result.

[00:03:45]Hopefully, it's Andy Burnham winning. It is likely to be tight, but I am going to say this. So the latest betting odds I know I know like you know there's betting odds just to be clear are not a probability that someone's going to win or a reverse probability or anything like that.

[00:04:02]They are a combination of two things.

[00:04:05]They are a combination of the bookies assess and bookies know what they're doing. their assessment of of who is likely to win and also it's a reflection of how many people are placing bets on which candidates, right? So sometimes some sometimes odds can be shortened not because the bookies think that person is more likely to win but just because loads of people putting a bet on it.

[00:04:32]Ultimately the book is design odds. They want them to be tempting enough for you to back a loser because they want to make money. They only make money when that when you bet on a loser. Um, so they want to make the odds tempting enough that you back a loser, but they don't want to risk it too much if like for example I see Restore Britain's odds are shortening, right?

[00:04:58]They're still very tempting. I mean, restore UK, restore Britain, sorry, are not going to win, but the odds, I mean, some of these odds are just seven to one. That's really short odds for a for a fringe party that ain't going to win.

[00:05:12]Um, that could reflect a lot of people putting bets on Restore UK. Uh, Restore, sorry, I keep calling them Restore UK. I mean, Restore Britain, sorry. Um, I should just call them Restore, shouldn't I? Or Robert Lo's Revenge Party.

[00:05:29]um you know these are I mean seven to one on restore Britain it's absolutely mad whereas you've got like the Green Party on the same book is 250 some of them have them 500 to one some bookies have the Green Party on 500 to one and the reason for that is the Greens aren't going to win the Greens have acknowledged that they're not going to win so anyone putting a bet on them to win is just throwing their money away so I suppose I mean there's someone there sorry there's a there's I'm just looking at betting company there. They've got Bet Fair have given odds of 979 to1 on the Green Party and it's because so you've got this massive wild swing.

[00:06:08]You've got William Hill offering odds of 250 to one and Bet Fair offering 979 to1. They're both major bookies.

[00:06:20]Massive difference.

[00:06:23]Whereas it's all a lot more it's all a lot closer. There isn't a huge amount of variety amongst betting odds for Reform UK. It's about three to one. You know, you've got if I look at those same two bet fair 7-2, William Hill, William Hill 5-2. So, it's much shorter for William Hill. But is there you go. If they do win, you get a nice payout. You'll get a spectacular payout. Imagine putting 100 quid on the Green Party at 979 to one.

[00:06:56]Imagine for goodness sake you get a million quid.

[00:07:01]Uh that would be a very good day for you, but it ain't going to happen.

[00:07:04]They're not even Well, we're told they're not even hammering it. But Restore Britain are hammering it, right?

[00:07:10]They I mean I've been told by people I think Liam actually was one of them in the area. Um, they're and I I'm hearing it all the time. They're really hitting the door knocking. They're out in groups all the time. Some people think they might be paying them. Now, I did say at the I did say and I had I had to confess I was wrong. Well, they have to be a bit careful because there are limits to how much you're allowed to spend on a campaign, but it was pointed out to me those limits are actually really high.

[00:07:38]I I forgot they'd actually increased them, didn't they? They increased them in the election. the amount you can or the amount political parties can spend on campaigns. So, actually, you can spend a lot of money. You you're allowed to spend I think I looked it up £180,000 £180,000 you're allowed to spend on this campaign. And apparently there are little fiddles where you can actually spend a bit more if you campaign on national issues.

[00:08:05]Um, which is a bit of a fiddle apparently Reform UK use.

[00:08:11]So can they be paid in alternative means like in physical goods? So anything you use for a campaign has to be um considered in terms of its value. So for example, if someone donates to your campaign a load of um equipment, you have to consider the monetary value of it. At least the lo if it's a loan of equipment, how much it would normally cost to loan that equipment. if it's physically given the equipment, how much it would actually cost. So yeah, you you it's not just money. The the spending limit covers the value of things that you use and are given. Volunteers, you don't have to say how much it would cost if they were to be paid for it because they are volunteers. That's different.

[00:08:58]But if Restore Britain are paying people to go do I don't know whether they are they're not, by the way, but apparently they've got a lot of them. Now, I'm going to have to do a video on this, I think, on Sunday because it's now interesting to know what is Restore Britain's game. What is their game?

[00:09:17]Because they're going hard at this bi-election, right? They're really going for it. So, they are aiming to cost.

[00:09:25]They know they can't win. So, they're basically aiming to screw over Reform UK, right?

[00:09:31]is their aim to actually take over Reform UK. In which case, why didn't they put up any candidates for the local elections? They didn't put up any, by the way. Even if you were to say, well, they probably don't have the infrastructure yet to have candidates all over the country.

[00:09:47]They they could have had candidates in in some areas, but instead they promoted independence that aligned with them exactly the same as your party. So, Restore Britain and your party in the local elections were behaving exactly the same. They're both revenge parties of a sort and neither of them put up their own candidates, but Restore Britain are putting up candidates here and they're put a candidate. Sorry, you're not allowed to put up more than one. It's not Formula One. Um, but they are putting up a candidate. They were first, they were straight out the gate. They already had it worked out. They already had it worked out. Um, it wouldn't surprise me if they were expecting a bi-election in the Manchester area and had already worked out who would contest it. Um, so what is their game? Are they actually a genuine party or are they just trying to act as parasites for Reform UK votes in order to force Reform UK to switch back to more extreme policy as if they're not extreme enough? I don't know. It's interesting though, isn't it?

[00:11:04]Uh question I was trying to say 900 to one 100 pound bet is is a million lot 90,000 no I mean first of all it's a 1000 to one it's close to a,000 to one to 900 to one it's actually a 100,000 I was thinking of putting a,000 pound bet and I did say 100 pound bet so it would be £100,000.

[00:11:30]Yes.

[00:11:31]Um, sorry. Yes.

[00:11:41]Uh, was it too late to put up candidates as low endorse people? No. Restore Britain have been go were going for long enough. I strongly suspect they just don't have the infrastructure.

[00:11:56]Now the qu we'll find out. Uh Liam there I actually think Rupert Low is dead serious. Well, we'll find out next year.

[00:12:01]The proof will be next year, next May.

[00:12:06]Because if they can flood Maker Field with shitloads of activists from all over the place, paid or unpaid, don't matter. But if they can flood, we'll assume they're unpaid. We'll assume they're volunteers.

[00:12:19]um if we if they can flood the place then over the next year and they must be getting money from somewhere. We know Elon Musk supports them but he probably can't well he I don't think he's donating to them directly but they could still have some people who are donating to them if they can build up their infrastructure and this gives them a lot of press because I'll tell you what will happen.

[00:12:46]This is a really important campaign for Restore Britain. They can't win the election, but they can win a lot of free publicity.

[00:12:55]They can have um because when the results come out in three weeks time, when the results come out, if Andy Bernham wins, people will pay very close attention to the actual votes. And if it looks like Restore Britain cost Reform UK the win, all of a sudden Restore Britain, they're not really getting much coverage in the mainstream media.

[00:13:17]They're getting a bit now because they sort of have to because they're part of a campaign election campaign. the the media do have to give them some coverage, but they're not really getting much in the way of free coverage, but they will if they are deemed to have been the king makers in this or the king blockers depend on your point of view. Um, so yeah, but but next year if they are serious, they will have candidates and they'll probably have a lot of candidates. They may not have as many as Reform UK, but they will have a lot of candidates if they're serious.

[00:13:59]Uh even if they win 7% or something, they'll claim they are the insurgents.

[00:14:02]Um 7% would be uh yeah, if they win 7% that will definitely get lots of reports saying that that was decisive. I do not imagine Burnham will win by a margin greater than that. Uh, you know, if you look at again, if you look at the bookies odds, you might be more hopeful that they can um that Burnham can win and it I would like it if he wins by a significant margin.

[00:14:32]The betting odds on Bernham and worthless. It's like one to three, sometimes worse. There's a two to seven here. There's a three to 10. You know, these are worthless odds. One to four. I don't even know that who that is.

[00:14:43]There's a bookie there who's offering one to four.

[00:14:49]So basically it's like reform roughly have three to one against them. Burnham one to three in his favor. So bookies are by and large saying Burnham's got if you were to judge them as probab they're not probabilities but if you were to judge them that they're basically saying Bernham's about nine or 10 times as likely to win as Reform UK.

[00:15:11]Um, says above and beyond Phil going to London for four days. Love London, too.

[00:15:21]I don't hate London. I just don't like crowds or I I'm not particularly keen on being out of the house for too long. I'm not particularly keen on traveling. I'm not particularly keen on crowds.

[00:15:33]So, but also, I mean, it's this is only the be well, it's not even the beginning. is the middle because I went to London last Wednesday for a flying visit uh for that meeting with John Curtis and and Tim Bale um in parliament and and then of course there's the rejoin march um in fact actually this is going to screw more things up there's the rejoin march on three weeks tomorrow 20th of June.

[00:16:11]So what's basically going to happen is um three weeks tomorrow I'll be discussing the bi-election result and then on the Saturday I'll be so there won't be a Saturday stream three weeks tomorrow because I'll be in London or coming back from London.

[00:16:27]So I've I'll have had to have gone to London for collectively about six or seven days within a space of a month. It's going to be very wearing on my nerves.

[00:16:49]But yeah, we're going to find out some very interesting things in three weeks time. If Bernham wins then obviously you know he wi he will he will become prime minister. It's just a case of how easy does star easy or difficult does stma make the process.

[00:17:06]So that will be big I mean do you know what you know British politics will I suspect blow up in three weeks time because we'll have you'll have two polls that are massive stories.

[00:17:20]First of all, Labour, it'll be like, "Right, what's Andy Bernham going to do?" I mean, you do already notice he's already had to harden some of his stances, his previous stances. And I did say this. I did say, you know, just be careful. You don't know what you're getting with Andy Burnham. I mean, I, you know, I'm someone who's thinks he should become Labour leader myself, but just, you know, people who think, oh, he's on, he's into this and he's into this. Yeah.

[00:17:47]The positions you can afford to take when you're outside of the sharp edge of politics are very different to what you have to adopt as soon as you're about to win power.

[00:17:58]Um Liam say I've learned not to get my hopes up too much with British politics and my wishes. Yeah, definitely don't do that.

[00:18:08]Uh how do I think Bernham's coms have been during the election as he comes across so much more naturally? So he is a more natural communicator but his communication infrastructure is still poor right that I cannot explain any more simpler than this like for example that video he put out people oh this is much more natural stage does yeah it is a much more natural speaker right but the platform was poor it it absolutely poor if the the bottom line is this if you do a search for Andy Bernham The stuff that comes up is mostly stuff that other people have said about him.

[00:18:52]It needs to be the stuff he said about himself. Right? And when you put in an Andy Burnham in a search engine, Andy Burnham, if he has a good commun, the test of a good communications platform is for someone like him is the stuff at the top his stuff. It needs to be in among you'll have other stuff there. I'm not saying you'll dominate, but there needs to be some stuff that is yours.

[00:19:17]And if there isn't, then that means that other people are deciding what the public find out about you.

[00:19:26]And that means you then have to be good at persuading those platforms to post something positive about you. Well, you should always try to do that. You should certainly try to do that, but you have no control over it or very little control over it. Andy Burnham needs his own platform. He hasn't got one.

[00:19:51]So, and the other thing at the moment, there will be a lot of mention of Andy Burnham at the moment because of course this is really crucial, but it's other people doing the mentioning.

[00:20:05]If Bernard stood in Gory, he would have run on a much more leftwing platform.

[00:20:09]He's now run a more center left platform. No, he would have run on the same platform. It's it's there is obviously some of the things he's saying he's having to be conscious of the people who need to elect him um as the MP, but he's also right if Andy Bernie wins this bi-election, he is going to become prime minister. So there is also a sense in which he is also having to adopt he's also having to make sure he doesn't promise the things he won't deliver on.

[00:20:41]So there's a bit of both in there. He's he's having to reflect what he would do as prime minister, not just as MP, but but the I would still say the same thing. Andy Burnham is not himself having any major impact on social media and he can't because you cannot just turn it on and off for a campaign which is what politicians seem to think you can do.

[00:21:08]Oh, we'll just pay for campaign ads and stuff.

[00:21:12]Great. But why not build your own platform? It's cheaper. You can do both.

[00:21:17]There's nothing to stop you paying for social media ads. Although a lot of the social media ads tend to be quite poor anyway, but develop you need to develop your own platform and he hasn't. He hasn't done that. None of them have. Angela Raina hasn't done it. West Streeting hasn't done it. Karma I mean Karma did his own YouTube channel but it's shite.

[00:21:43]It's absolutely You know, I was just reading right, he has a Substack.

[00:21:49]Now, Kier Stam has actually posted quite an interesting um response to the Tony Blair essay.

[00:21:58]Right. It's worth reading. I'm I'm going to do a video on it. I don't know when it's going to come out. It's all a bit messy. It'll either be I'll either put it as a sneaky extra video later tonight or for tomorrow or something. Right.

[00:22:10]It's probably going to be tomorrow at this rate. It's worth reading. I'm going to comment on one little part of it, but it's got no traction. I can see on it. I can't see how many people have viewed it. I don't think those figures are available publicly. Um, but I can see 18 comments and I can see 37 shares.

[00:22:35]You know, when did he post it? This is the prime minister, right? And he posted it yesterday. I don't know what time yesterday, but he pasted it yesterday.

[00:22:44]And that's all it's got. 18 comments and 37 shares on a Substack. Now, if I were to look, let me have a little look at something.

[00:22:56]Apologies. I'm just uh trying to find um I can't I'm trying to think who's who's got a substack that probably people will look at.

[00:23:23]Can't really tell. I'm not I don't really read a lot of people on substacks. Oh, hold on a minute. I know one. Hold on.

[00:23:35]Right, let's have a look here.

[00:23:38]Um, do you know what I need?

[00:23:43]I need Sorry, I'm I'm I'm dithering here. I'm trying to find There's a Substack I did a video on earlier this week, isn't there? Um, let me just find it.

[00:24:02]I mentioned the bears substack earlier this week.

[00:24:07]So this so this was written on the 25th.

[00:24:09]This is someone who does Substacks, right? They're not nationally famous.

[00:24:14]They're a commentator like me, but they don't do it on YouTube, right? Um they they tend to use more traditional media.

[00:24:22]They do Substack.

[00:24:24]Um they they've written the odd article for the comment piece for the Guardian, stuff like that.

[00:24:31]So this has got and this is okay. It's a few days older. This is from the 25th of May.

[00:24:36]But it's got 193 likes and 35 comments and 49 shares.

[00:24:42]Again, sub and this, you know, and that is not someone who's nationally famous.

[00:24:47]Like the prime minister has a Substack and they put something out that's like a big buster. It's like, you know, it's basically this to Tony Blair. Come on then. Um, you would expect more than 18 comments and 37 shares, wouldn't you? Prime Minister, for Christ's sake.

[00:25:05]And it's and it's so poor. And again, don't even make me com compare Tony Blair, sorry, Tony Blair, Kia Starmer's YouTube channel with mine. I mean, and I'm just a I'm just one person, not nationally famous. No one share. I I'm not part of a network of people sharing my stuff, of other large platforms sharing my stuff. I'm one person on YouTube who who who moans at a camera in a shed.

[00:25:34]and it's poor. There's no reason on earth why top politicians should not be kicking my ass when it comes to views on YouTube and they're just not doing it.

[00:25:46]Uh anyway, sorry, back to comments.

[00:25:53]Uh MC saying, "Thinking the demographics, older age group, highly motivated to get out and vote, ethnicity, etc. making uh make a few constituency will make it particularly tough for Burnham." There's there's lots of things we we can speculate on in terms of who will turn out. I would suggest that this Burnham sorry this Makerfield bi-election may well have quite a lot of people turning out. It could quite have quite a high turnout for a bi-election and that is because normally for a bi-election it can be very very dodgy because the sort of people the sort of normal moderate voters who want to use their vote to determine the government don't turn out for bi-elections because the bi-election doesn't change the government.

[00:26:42]This one can. This one can. Andy Burnham. It's it's I don't know what this the specific messages being passed and on face to face at the doorstep are from Labor, but there is a very clear undertone in the med in the national media that Andy Bernham isn't doing this to become an MP or even a cabinet minister. He's doing it to become prime minister. So, this is an election that can actually change the government and that will get more people out. I think I I it's hard to say because there's never been a bi-election like it that I am aware of. I don't think there's ever been a bi-election like this. So, it's hard to judge. It's the sort of bi-election Boris Johnson wanted, wasn't it? Boris Johnson in his mind thought he would do exactly what Andy He's probably fuming now because this is what he wanted to do. wait for the tries to decide that all the leaders they kept appointing were Beg Boris Johnson to come back and he go, "All right, give me a safe seat. I'll come back." So Andy Burnham is basically doing what Boris Johnson wanted to do, but he can't.

[00:27:59]Uh saying guilts are fairly stable, so they don't seem to be scared for Burnham PM yet. He has well there have been wobbles. He has acted to calm them down a bit like he's committed to the fiscal rules.

[00:28:12]which is what they mostly care about.

[00:28:14]They don't really care what you spend the money on. They just care that there's enough money to pay them.

[00:28:25]Liam say also I hate to say but factoring class areas also a lot of council estate areas in parts of make a field that are very reformheavy but even reform voters some of them are genuine reform supporters. Okay, they will vote reform or maybe restore.

[00:28:42]But some of them are just we need to break the status quo. And if Andy Burnham comes across as we need to break the state that is that is his pitch, then he can still attract those votes and also as I say you know like I mean there's various outcomes here. Reform UK could win, but I am going to say it's going to be quite tough. Their candidate really is woeful. I mean, they've gone for a proper nutter, haven't they?

[00:29:15]He's he's an antivaxer as well. Like, even though Reform UK insists he's had all his vaccinations. Apparently, he was telling people not to get their boosters. You know what was it he said?

[00:29:27]I got a comment here.

[00:29:30]Um, stop. It literally told people stop having boosters.

[00:29:39]And obviously there's all the misogynistic as well he's come out with. And the fact he's a Brexit, he was anti-rexit.

[00:29:47]I mean that might cost him a bit.

[00:29:49]anti-rexit.

[00:30:02]Honestly, ridiculous how Blair was going against Net Zero considering he was the PM when we built a load of wind farms, etc. Yeah, it's it's it's perplexing is what it is. It's perplexing what Tony Blair has done there. This is why I'm actually wondering if it's just a grift because we know he's on like Trump's board of peace and stuff like that, don't we? you know, is he is he really just after the money now? Is he just like I don't know why he's rich. He's made a right fortune anyway. Whatever a reason. I don't know the reason. I'm just speculating. But it's absolutely mad. It's um you know, it's it's like the the the problems is laid out are correct. If you read it, they're all correct. It just then goes in mad directions.

[00:30:49]And like you know streeting Burnham David Blonet one of his contemporaries has even pointed various people have pointed out at no point does Tony Blair when he's laying out his prescription as Larry Elliot called it at no point did he talk about how it benefits ordinary people and and it's you know it's a weird one but anyway is is he's he's long since past the point of being someone we should just basically ignore at this point. He's he's basically just like your your your granddad when they've gone off their rocker a bit, is he? He's just like just sitting by the window shouting at the pigeons or something.

[00:31:33]Uh Johnson would not win even in a safe tour seat. Well, that is possible. That is entirely possible.

[00:31:39]Also, I don't think anyone's really wanting him back anyway. I don't think of the parliamentary party that exists for the conseratives right now, there isn't a lot of support for Boris Johnson. He's basically done. He's done.

[00:31:51]He might even realize he's done now.

[00:31:56]Uh, will Burnham do a deal with Streeting to a Lehip election?

[00:31:59]Hopefully, yes. Maybe give Street a top job in cabinet. Streeting should have a top job in cabinet anyway. You need a mix of views in cabinet if you're going to be strong. and he is a very canny politician.

[00:32:14]So he should anyway what I'm hoping happens this ultimately it's actually down to Star. I think here's how I read it. If Starmmer accepts that Burnham will definitely beat him, which he should unless he's blinkered. Um he has been a bit blinkered so you can't rule it out. Then he will only do damage to not only Labour but his own project, right? The best way of Stalmer securing his legacy is actually just to step aside. So if Starmmer does that, I get the impression that Streeting probably wouldn't himself trigger a leadership contest, that he'd only join one if it was going to happen anyway. That's the that's what I get reading between the lines. I could be reading them wrong. So but but it is almost certain that Burnham will offer something to Streeting anyway because it's what you do. It's how these things work.

[00:33:11]Uh Richard there saying Blair sold out in my opinion. It it very much looks like it. I don't it's it is sometimes very difficult because as you know people have said he is the one who powered up renewable energy. You know he got right behind it. The tries put a complete stop. If we'd have carried on, if we'd have carried on, if the tries and lib Dems would have carried on with the trajectory, although it's really the tourist, the trajectory that Labour set, we would now not there wouldn't be headlines about why Britain is particularly badly affected by the Iran war.

[00:33:46]We would be a renewable hot spot. We'd be more like Spain and Portugal.

[00:33:55]But there it is.

[00:33:57]Blair just has become someone nobody likes and everyone just wants to shut up. I mean, yeah, he he is still respected and it is rights to respect.

[00:34:04]Again, he was he was absolutely sharp politically. He was on the ball. If Kier Starmer had have had Tony Blair's political acumen and charisma, Labour would have no problems right now. They would have no problems. If you know, if you would have had if you would have had a leader that had the political acumen, the top advisers, the charisma and and the confidence like that, you that's, you know, there's a reason he won three elections on the bounce. But he's either gone off his rocker or there's some, you know, there's some ulterior motive here because he's not saying this in in the UK or Labour's interests. That's clear. Uh, Board of Peace is currently broke. No one knows where the money is. Well, there is no money. Yeah, that's I've I saw I've seen reports on that as well. Yeah, there's no money. There was I think there was a few million given to it for specific projects like I think some Gulf states give some money for like setting up a police force in Gaza. Although that's all out the window now, isn't it?

[00:35:04]Israel's completely reneging on the deal. Um they already I mean the border of peace like Trump's deal did state that pal that Gaza was for the Palestinians and that Palestinians you know should should live there. Israel never signed with that. And now they're they're apparently looking at forc forcibly removing people again. It's all it's all a absolute show there at the moment.

[00:35:36]Uh, some people believe Jeremy Clarkson would join Restore Britain as an MP candidate in Doncaster, ignoring he's pro-EU and a big Tory. Yeah, I don't know that he's necessarily pro-EU, but he's definitely anti- Brexit.

[00:35:47]I've never really heard him say kind things about he's one of those uh what you might what some tries used to call themselves pragmatic remainers, wasn't he? Yeah, he thinks Brexit's mad and he still does as far as I'm aware, but he doesn't necessarily have love for the EU as a concept.

[00:36:04]But yeah, he is certainly anti-rexit and he is a massive Tory.

[00:36:13]Not a surprising from Blair Prescott and Brown was his counterweights when his office Brown was very aligned with him on a lot of things. There were a few differences obviously. They were very closely aligned on most things.

[00:36:26]Uh is there such a thing as a safe Tory seat anymore in a bi-election? Possibly not. There there are probably a few.

[00:36:33]There are some seats that are very conservative with a small C and Reform UK wouldn't get a look. Labour wouldn't get a look in. Who else would in a conservative area? Maybe Lib Dems.

[00:36:43]If Reform UK took enough votes off them.

[00:36:46]So, it might be that there isn't such a thing in a bi-election. But in the next general election, there will be safe seats, but none of them for Boris Johnson. Boris Johnson, I don't think, has rehabilitated his image. He hasn't.

[00:36:58]He doesn't even seem to be trying. I think I think he's probably just given up in all honesty. Do you remember he was supposed to do GB News? He was he GB News signed him. He was going to do GB hasn't done that's that's fallen apart.

[00:37:12]Maybe he didn't like the fact that he won't get paid as much as Nigel Farge. I don't know.

[00:37:19]But anyway, last few comments and we'll have to call it a day.

[00:37:24]Uh feel that the current leaders are pragmatic. If Burnham wins will transition smoothly to him being leader, I hope so.

[00:37:31]Because just for Labour's benefit, he could do with being prime minister before the summer recess because he the summer recess is really useful because you don't have to announce anything. In fact, you're not really supposed to announce anything, but he's going to have to he's going to have to work on quite a few tricky little policy issues. He's going to have to decide where he stands on a few things. He he'll need to have he'll need to get the Treasury working on a few things because as soon as Parliament's back on, he needs to be straight out saying what we're going to do. He cannot afford to lose momentum. It needs to be bang, we're going to do this. But he can't he can't do it without checking what's possible first. And the other thing he should do over summer is get himself out and about. Get himself out and about. Go walk about. Um you know, I'm not saying like because he needs to be in Downing Street as well, but get himself out. Don't go on holiday. Get yourself out couple of days a week. Um, you know, go go around the country and just listen. Don't even have to say anything. In fact, it' be better if he didn't say anything. Just get out and listen. Just listen to people. Say, "Come on, give it me. What what's what's your top priority problem and have a conversation with them, but mostly let them do the talking."

[00:38:49]Uh David there saying I think Tony Blair's a bit more sinister. Why did he pick this moment? What does he he and his back has achieved by shits doing now? I I I honestly don't know. All I do know is that universally within Labor in terms of the people who decide policy now like there are people in Labor who who want you know who align with Tony Blair still. Of course they do. But in terms of the ones who are deciding policy now or will decide policy over the next year, no matter what happens in the bi-election, none of them are buying this. So all it's doing is helping stoke a few um articles in the news. It's this is why it's been described as unhelpful.

[00:39:31]Uh I don't think it is that unhelpful. I don't care about it. But you know say John Major David Blunket Gordon Brown are relevant. Blair now has been.

[00:39:41]Well, yeah, he's not. He is. It's weird, isn't it? He is the most successful living prime minister and he is irrelevant. I think that's a fair comment and it's but he's made himself irrelevant.

[00:39:58]But anyway, it is what it is, right?

[00:40:00]We'll um we'll have to leave it there.

[00:40:02]Thanks for coming on everyone. Have a great rest of day and until next time.

[00:40:06]I'll see you later.