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[00:00:00]Hey guys, welcome or welcome back to the channel McNoney, the official home of power analysis. A big episode in store for you today. We're going to be taking a look at the latest news out from Keel, Iron, Cipher, and Terwolf, just to name a few. We've got a lot to talk about.

[00:00:14]You know the routine. Smash the like button, guys. Big help to myself and the channel. Anthony absolutely loves it. If you're not already subscribed, McNoney, feel free to join and let us know in the comments section below what you think of today's headlines and your top pick in the space currently. With that being said, let's get into today's episode.

[00:00:38][music] All right, guys. Away we go. Wednesday afternoon. Another good-looking day in the market. We'll see if we can string three backtobacks together here. We've got some big headlines out. Some of the favorite companies in the sector. We're going to be talking Keel, Iron, Cipher, just to name a few. Before that though, Anthony, Bitcoin, we've been focused on this little bounce we've seen over the last few trading sessions. Wanted to switch it up today. We pulled up a five-year chart so you can get a better feel for that full four-year cycle. We don't necessarily want to call the bottom yet, but it definitely looks like some base building activity.

[00:01:15]>> Yeah, we'd like to think that bottom was in that sort of high 50s, 58, 59,000, and we're starting that slow process. If you look at the last cycle there, it got down to just under 16,000. It took the best part of two years then to sort of get to about 42,000. So, um, you know, this is not looking to be, you know, a quick recovery, but it's getting to that bottom to give you a platform to then build from and hopefully we've reached it. But 66 today will take that. As I say, I think yesterday we reported it was up 3 to 4% on the week. So, you know, happy with that.

[00:01:50]>> Happy with that indeed. Now, we haven't talked about Bitcoin or crypto policy in a while on the channel. There's been a couple headlines that caught our attention today. The first one uh out from the Senate talking actually about uh federal officials, including the pre president himself, being involved in the crypto space. We then have one from Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, talking about the Clarity Act as well.

[00:02:14]So, it seems there are some uh positives coming here, Anthony, but again, we've been waiting for quite some time.

[00:02:22]>> Yeah. And this update basically highlights that presidents and other federal officials would be banned from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrency and other digital assets under the newly updated legislation the Senate is considering. Now, the Republicans on on today have updated a measure already on consideration [clears throat] known as the Clarity Act. We talked about this on the podcast uh previously and that this would be the first major legislation governing digital assets. Now CNBC has obtained the bill text which now includes the first limits on how presidents may profit off crypto itself.

[00:02:59]>> Kind of funny, eh? We've talked a little bit about that on the channel, but now uh see some legislative movement. Nice to see though, Brian saying we're at the oneyard line. So indicating we're getting very very close to seeing that clarity act. We hope that comes in this year and gives some structure to the market here. Hopefully some uh life back into the Bitcoin and crypto price. Now moving over to the miners. I said three for three days. Anthony looking fairly green out there. It was red in pre-market. We've seen a little bit of recovery. There are a few in the red but a pretty strong week to start off.

[00:03:34]>> Yeah. Um yeah it looks like you know predominantly green data there's a few companies in the red but when you look at you know the level of percentage in the red there you know marginally level there and fufu just fractionately under galaxy saloon just over a percentage and ABTC um down 2.4% 4% but has had a good week so far. ABTC. Um, Riot's leading the way and um, bear in mind Riot um, you know, only have about 50 megawatt of uh, compute power at the moment um, with AMD. And so when you look at their their peers there, you've got Cipher, you know, uh, with with, you know, two or three deals under the belt there. You've also got the likes of Terra Wolf, you know, with with again three or four deals under their belt and right haven't got a deal and they still got this sort of like market cap heading towards 9 billion at the moment. It was significantly higher before when the share price was at $30, but still showing remarkably good market capitalization now. Obviously, the market must be building in that uh you know the fact that Cory Carer and Rodale are two prime sites only 120 miles away from each other just south of Dallas, just north of Austin. you know, prime position to uh put, you know, you know, a HPC site in full flow there. Corso, it's a one gawatt site. Uh, you know, Rockdale is a 700 megawatt site at full power as well. And as as I say, they've only issued about 100 megawws of that there. So, plenty of potential in both those sites. Probably a fraction of that is built into the share price, but it's up 7% today with no news out there whatsoever. So maybe some of these companies we we we saw Scythe yesterday having a really good run and that's the sort of second uh play stock today up nearly three and a half%. So whether you know people are just selecting uh value each day in another minor um very interesting iron's having a good day you know again over two and a half% up and KE up 2 and a half% as well and we'll come on some news about iron and keel uh shortly but um overall you know positivity there you can see the day range we're at sort of the highs of the day range with with one exception there fufu started the day better but has pulled back now uh slightly under 7% under the starting price of the day, you know, and uh you know, that's the time of the podcast, so you know, a lot more can happen in the next few hours of market trading.

[00:06:01]>> Yeah, it really can. Now, you mentioned the market cap of Riot. We move over to the heat map here. We wanted to draw your guys' attention to the market cap column. Uh so, right next to the tickers there. Interesting to see we only have a few names above $10 billion. Anthony, this has come down quite considerably from maybe those June 22nd highs. uh what's your take on that when we look at the value of these companies verse maybe a core a Nebus some of those Neoclouds that are a bit more established >> I think it's basically uh you know all on the contracts that have been signed at the moment I mean you know you talk about Nebius and Coreweave they've signed you know a lot of contracts already they're you know ex extensively higher than some of the companies here Iron's only issued a very very small amount of its power portfolio in terms you know, towards HPC. So, it's it's it's got the the power in in sort of British Columbia, and it's now, you know, obviously about to start handing over Horizon 1, 2, 3, and four this year to Microsoft for that 200 megawatt deal.

[00:07:04]But here's a company with the best part of 6 gaw of power. Um, and here we have, you know, iron with a market capitalization of just over 15 billion.

[00:07:13]today's share price, but that's been as high as, you know, 22 billion this year when the share price was significantly higher. Now, we did have probably about five um or even six of these companies uh in sort of like doubledigit uh billions um earlier in the year when, you know, share prices were high. And if you look at the one long change, that's telling you how much some of these companies have pulled back. So, if you look at the likes of, you know, Terowolf, they're at 9.7 billion. Apollo back 28% just in the last month. Cipher down 16% just last month. Those two companies would have been above 10 billion. Riot again 19% in the last month. That would have put them above 10 billion. And Core Scientific 18% down over last month. That would have certainly put them in that sort of uh you know 9 billion to 10 billion bracket there. Now, once some of these once these companies start adding more of their power to contracts, um you know, you're going to see these companies grow and and and you know, at the moment, we've got the likes of Hut and Terowolf who are um have have issued slightly over 900 megawatts of compute power. Um I think once we start seeing, you know, gigawatts or one and a half gawatt, 2 gawatt, you'll see the market capitalizations really start to uh improve. And also the fact is I think we're still waiting to see if these companies can deliver these contracts as per the contract and therefore when analysts are looking at the sort of future revenues are the future costs in line with the revenues that they're anticipating and will their price targets match uh once delivery is seen.

[00:08:54]>> It's a good point you bring up. Yeah, I think a lot of these companies are kind of in the pro it stage right now.

[00:08:59]However, if we look at the macro demand signals, we've been talking a lot about the investment, the capex, the AI infrastructure buildout. Yet again, a major headline today out from Open AI.

[00:09:10]So, anthropic competitor now saying they could spend up to 750 billion or 34 of a trillion dollars by 2030. So, at a high level, Anthony, we're continuing to see major money flow into this space.

[00:09:26]Yeah, that's an extra 150 billion on what they previously um told the president they were going to be investing. I remember that conversation.

[00:09:34]Sam Alman and a number of the big CEOs from some of the hyperscalers out there, you know, the likes of Meta, Microsoft, Google, we're all sat around the same table, all committing at least a hundred billion a year. And now we're seeing companies raise even more. Now, you know, with OpenAI, a 20 billion been committed to a new Georgia data center, adding to OpenA's expanding owned and contracted infrastructure. They've also hired um an architect from Elon Musk compute buildout uh Brent Mayo um you know, and he was responsible for the Colossus Supercomputer at AI in Memphis.

[00:10:15]Now, you know, we're seeing not just this from uh the likes of Open AI, but many of the companies that we talk about on a daily basis, talent migration continues as you know, as as the operators uh you know, who can deliver capacity at speed are being snapped up left, right, and center. And it wasn't too long ago that we had an update from John Bellazair on on a on a a talent they'd acquired uh from Microsoft.

[00:10:40]>> Yeah, we wanted to throw this in. We just heard about the Ryan Carver pickup from Microsoft coming in as the CDO. So, we're starting to see not only a lot of real capital in terms of dollars, but human capital move around here as well.

[00:10:53]The other thing that caught our attention about this, we've talked about this insourcing debate between the hyperscalers. Are they going to build it themselves? Are they going to outsource it? We're now continuing to see deals like this from Meta. We talked about Microsoft's deal with Mistl yesterday and now OpenAI injecting more money into the buildout. So it appears as we've been saying the demand is relentless.

[00:11:16]The GPU space is limited and these companies need to inject more money. Uh so a great demand signal and we expect many more of these type of updates over the next few months. Now speaking of updates, we're going into earnings season here, Anthony. Four times a year, our happiest uh couple months here.

[00:11:34]where we get to do all the interviews, get your guys' questions answered. We've got a great lineup here so far out of the gate, kicking off in August, actually on the 4th. We've got Cipher Digital with their Q2 earnings. Uh that's going to be great to get an update on their continued buildout in Texas. We've got Terowolf out on the 5th pre-market. Again, we'll be having a member of the team on to talk about their AI buildout and strategy moving into the back half of the year. And finally, Anthony Galaxy, the same day, same time as Wolf, the morning of the 5th, uh going to be coming out with their Q2 earnings as well. So, a stacked week there to kick off August. And very exciting times at Power Analysis.

[00:12:18]>> And it's great that you mentioned Galaxy there because they've managed to uh put out an update today, not through a press release, but through an SEC filing. They filed a form 8k um earlier today basically to announce plans to raise just over $3.5 billion of senior secured notes which will be due in 2031.

[00:12:40]Now the money itself will help build a new AI data center campus in Texas with eight data halls, 400 megawatts of power and 260 megawatts of IoT capacity. and and in doing quick maths in my head that's around about 1.5 uh pee there. If you look at the amount of ancillary power to compute power um now although the deal itself hasn't been finalized, we'll start to hear more and more updates as um they go to market for the this uh for this debt. Uh once completed, it's another major investment in AI infrastructure and shows that the demand for large scale computing continues to grow. And remember, you know, they've got a site there that could be potentially one of the biggest sites uh that we see uh in Texas there.

[00:13:27]They've got the Helios site there uh which at the moment I think they've got approval to go to 1.6 gawatt of power.

[00:13:35]So, you know, think, you know, very close to what we've seen at Sweetwater 2 um in terms of size there. But that's a colossus amount there. They've already got a big deal with Coree at that site.

[00:13:47]Um and I would imagine if they once they uh start to build out the rest of that maybe they uh coreweave who've been buying up power left right and center so they they they bought up the power from uh core scientific 590 megawatt they've got the helios site there where they've done the first trunch of deals there um that's likely to grow and grow all the way through maybe I mean you know some of these sites here they may not want a competitor on the same site so it might be that you know with this big demand for power why not use a site that you're already operating on. You've already got that relationship with the company grow that grow that deal uh further. We've just seen the likes of Hutate do exactly the same at Beacon Hill for phase two that they did in phase one. Dollar for dollar, size for size. That's what you get when you're having, you know, a good relationship there. They've grown that deal twice as much. It's nearly $20 billion there. I think Galaxy probably could do the same at the Helios site there. and they're raising money now to help them build these data centers further. So, getting all the ducks in a row. As I say, not quite finalized yet.

[00:14:54]We'll we'll provide you more updates as they come clear there. But a but a a little update through the through the SEC finalist today for Galaxy.

[00:15:02]>> Yeah, nice find there, Anthony. And a perfect segue into Hut 8 Corp. We talked about the benchmark target of 195 earlier this week following that big Beacon Hill upsize announcement or the completion of that lease site. Uh we wanted to throw this in just to show a little bit of the range here in terms of the price targets. These are the top five targets uh from Wall Street. You can see a consensus of about 184. But really regardless of which bank you look at, Anthony, there's tremendous upside in HUD among other companies in the space.

[00:15:34]>> Well, there's there's tremendous uh potential in all these companies now that they're moving to HPC. I did a little bit of analysis a couple of years ago to see which companies had you know analysts following there and at the time some of the companies had you know five or six analysts there. We're seeing a lot more now. You can see from this uh screenshot here 16 analysts are following eight and iron's one of the companies that we talk about you know a lot on a day-to-day basis. Um so 16 analysis there. We've even seen the likes of Saloona managed to get their first analyst. they didn't have an analyst following during that Bitcoin mining phase. as soon as they've highlighted the fact that they're now moving into HPC with a number of sites that they're going to bring online um especially uh the one that they managed to sneak into their July uh business update Katty 2 phase 2 is um is going to be you know HPC collocation site there 100 megawws already signed as an LOI and the companies now will be working through to get that executed into a deal structure um but you can see from all this HPC. The analysts are now coming into the space. They're now seeing what HPC is. I spoke to a number of analysts couple years ago and I asked them what their their feelings were on Bitcoin mining. And to be honest with you, and I've mentioned this before on the channel, they didn't see it as a business model, but the numbers we're talking about in HPC are going to be significantly greater. All these discussion at the moment, we've just talked about Galaxy, you know, with their site there. Hate have got 26 billion dollars of deals signed up already with Riverbend and Beacon and they've still got probably 80% of the power pipeline in place to issue for more contracts going forward. But it's great to see those analysts coming out there. The average price increase or the average price um rating that has been given is is $184.

[00:17:35]Now, if you look at the share price today, hovering just over $100. You've got plenty of upside, 82% upside at the time of the uh podcast. So, uh you know, another one to look at, do your due diligence. Um it looks like Hut have really um grown in this sort of since this this this merger of two companies happened three years ago and they're now, you know, firmly [clears throat] in that sort of second position. When you look at the market capitalization of nearly 12 billion, only iron is positioned above them on the companies that we talk about on a daily basis.

[00:18:10]>> And this is honestly what we love as retail investors. You identify a sector or companies based on the fundamentals before the financials catch up. You can get into these companies while they're cheap and then Wall Street comes with the big updates and piles in with the regular investors. Uh speaking of iron, we've got a price target on them as well. Uh this one's out from HC Wayright. I'll let you walk through the numbers. Anthony, citing many of the same points we've been discussing throughout the week here. Seems the interest in iron or the limelight is shining back on this company.

[00:18:43]>> Yeah, we saw a bit of momentum this week. Share prices uh has been moving up over over the week. They're up probably nearly 9% uh over the last five days. Key key takeaways in this here. This is, you know, another target based on the fact they announced $2.8 8 billion of new multi-year AI cloud contracts, raising their annualized revenue from 3.7 billion to 4 billion. So, you know, a significant rise there. Um 85 cents of the updated ARR target is now contracted at 3.4 4 billion and the implied revenue is also up there up 8% to about $34 an hour in indicating that the price is strong. We've talked about that on the channel as well there. So this $90 maintain there. If you look at where the share price is today, it's around about $42 live. Now I can see the the the the share price on the exchange. this target of $90 as a maintain is, you know, 117% higher than the current share price is at the moment. So, um, again, I one of the biggest players there. The share price did reach a closing price of $76 back in October last year. And you know indicators are that um you know once we see some some more of the collocation come on there that price target you know will certainly be more than mirrored going forward.

[00:20:11]>> Now Anthony the next story here I don't want to alarm you. I was out in the job market applying for some roles last night and I stumbled across this one. I wanted to get your thoughts on it. We talked about the Horizon 1 electrical completion ceremony yesterday on the podcast. This was an interesting posting in terms of a data center commissioner based in the Texas region.

[00:20:33]>> Yeah. And and what we did say um on the channel was the fact that you know the fact that the electrical part of being completed um that didn't mean the end of the position there. There's also going to be testing and more importantly commissioning um and the handover um folders have to be completed before the physical handover to Microsoft. And you know, this is all going to plan. We've heard from Iron Q3 2026 is the date that Horizon one's expected to. It looks like it's well underway. It looks like most of the actual works have been completed now. And you're just down to testing, commissioning, handover. So, you know, we'll wait for to give us more information there. But great to see, you know, them on target again. And I mean, we've been fortunate to see this, you know, for the last couple of years, ever since they were at 10x the hash. And they raised that target um, you know, for for hash rate target significantly by about 40x hash over the next 12 months and achieve that. We we anticipate they'll start achieving all their targets continually throughout 26 and 27, getting this uh this first big deal through the through the door and then moving on to to the next big deal with with with I said before significant power pipeline available.

[00:21:50]>> Yeah, we've got full confidence in the team at Iron. Another team we really like Keel and Ben Gon he's committed to three deals by mid to late summer. Now, this next piece of news relates to a further out project, scrub grass. I'll let you go through the details here, Anthony, but we got to say we really like the granularity uh with Keel. We're going through the process with them. It almost feels like we're part of the team walking through this uh permitting, environmental, all the way up to leasing process. But Scrubgrass, another check in the box.

[00:22:25]>> Yeah. And one thing that we've been grateful for Ben is he's gave us an insidider view of everything that they're doing. I don't think we've seen as much detail at this level from any of the other companies moving into this space. You know, this is not Bitcoin miners is a totally different strategy and there's going to be more requirements to to to complete and go through, more hurdles to go through.

[00:22:48]Now, the Scrubgrass Township have just passed the data center ordinance as Keel's Pennsylvania plans draw the local scrutiny. Now, this 25page ordinance has passed unanimously. It covers the likes of utilities, water usage, noise, environmental impact, facility appearance, vegetation buffers, and violation penalties for any data center permit. Now a total of 80 residents attended the meeting which was relocated to a firewall after a prior session overflowed the township building and 100 attended the July 8th special meeting.

[00:23:25]And in Ke's context the company have outlined a conceptual data center plan at its scrubgrass power plant site.

[00:23:31]Remember this is a one potentially 1.3 gawatt site um along the Alagany River currently used for Bitcoin mining. The timelines remain unchanged. Kea's guided scrubgrass is its longest dated project targeting 2028 29 at the earliest for first building commissioning. So remember they've also got uh Panther Creek, they've got Sharon and they've got Moses Lake all effectively, you know, going to be signed deals uh this year. So they've got plenty of of power to um you know to focus on. But what they're, you know, what they're planning for, they're planning for the future and along with the other sites in in Sherbrook, Quebec, which we talked about again on a previous podcast recently.

[00:24:18]Um, you know, plenty of plenty of power to keep the the company busy over the probably next four or five years.

[00:24:25]Remember, that's a total of 2.2 gawatt of power. Um they've not signed anything at the moment, but the market does like the sh the share and you can tell that you know effectively some of the deals are already built into this because I know that their Bitcoin mining has been reducing in terms of hash rate. I think it's slightly less than 10x hash at the moment operational. We'll probably get more information uh when they announce that in their earnings update. They'll tell us what what the hash rate was at the end of June. um as that's a sort of a a major part of the current business.

[00:25:01]Remember, they're going to still mine Bitcoin until that crossover, but Ben said on a previous podcast that, you know, he saw about 12 months left of mining before those machines would be switched off and the power switched on to HPC.

[00:25:16]>> Yeah. Now, this next update, an interesting one. Jim Kramer, I guess Keel's caught the attention of him as well. I don't know if it's the pipeline, the deals, Ben Gon, what it is. We'll play you the clip and then I wanted to get your thoughts on two specific uh points here, Anthony.

[00:25:34]>> Investing is huge for us. Our stock is steel infrastructure. [music] Our thesis is >> okay. Now, I'm glad you mentioned this one. This is the kind of thing I'm willing to blast. Okay. It's a high-risisk infrastructure company where I do feel that something good could happen, you know, and it's not going to be down 800 be some of the look. I think Nbius, congratulations to them. You want the next nibbius though. How about that?

[00:25:56]Now, first point, Jim Kramer, very controversial. I wanted to get your thoughts on whether or not this is good or bad, first of all. Secondly, comparing Keel to Nebus, so one of the larger Neoclouds we've seen in the space. What are your thoughts here, Anthony, on Jim Kramer? Um, I as a as a as a watcher of CNBC, you know, when I when I came to this space five or six years ago, I I pretty much watched CBC on a on a I mean, in the UK it was, you know, it works well because it was it morning basis here. Um, and so I got to listen to to some of his his take there.

[00:26:34]Now, one minute he was in Bitcoin, next minute was out of Bitcoin. He was a bit in and out on some of these stocks. He's not he's been the same with some of the companies that we talk about regularly like the likes of Iron there. He believes that that's a sell stock as well. Um I'm not taking you know his word. Um you know he's not done the due diligence that you know myself and maybe a lot of other analysts in the space have done these companies. I've been with these companies for five six years.

[00:27:00]you know, um, we we get to interview the CEO more regularly than CNBC is, you know, interview the CEOs, maybe with the exception of Paul Prager from Terrible.

[00:27:10]He seems to have a a seat about once a Fortnite on CNBC at the moment. And that's because they're signing all these deals, but what we do get on the channel is we get a lot of insight. We get, you know, um, we get more color onto what's been put out there in terms of updates.

[00:27:24]We don't get secret, we don't get, people think we get secret information.

[00:27:28]We get no secret information. We don't want secret information. What we want is timely information. That's what we try and base the channel on there to be able to, you know, to let you guys know in a timely manner when things are happening.

[00:27:41]That's why we do a podcast pretty much, you know, every day because there's lots of news coming out every day and we don't want you to wait two days to hear something that came out, you know, 48 hours before. We want to try and give you news as it comes out. With regards to Jim, you know, take it or leave it.

[00:27:57]He's probably a bit like we say in the UK, a bit like Marmite. You know, some people like him, some people hate him.

[00:28:04]You know, as I say, you know, I'll listen to what he says, but I'll generally make my own own mind up there.

[00:28:09]I'll do more due diligence. I think sometimes he he he is very quick on on certain companies uh without h without going into any details there. now to to put Keel as, you know, as as potentially a future Nebus. I mean, that's that's great for Keel, but bear in mind, you know, I mean, he's likely next week to bring out his own ETF, uh, you know, and that would take, you know, trying to take money away from these companies and put it into the ETF. So, I don't know which fence you sit on, but um, I'm I'm saying, you know, great for TV. Um, not not my uh I I don't go to Jim Craner for my stock picks, if that makes any sense.

[00:28:45]price.

[00:28:46]>> Well, and I just laugh comparing Nebius to Keel, their collocation and CSP.

[00:28:51]They're not even doing the same business model. So, I guess that shows how much due diligence he's done. And you're right, we do do a podcast almost every day, but tomorrow we're not. And that's because it's a special day, your 60th birthday, Anthony. So, wanted to wish you a happy birthday. Unless some major news comes out, we'll give you the day off for that one.

[00:29:10]>> Yeah, thanks. Looking forward to it. Um, I'm not a big birthday fan, but I suppose that when you get to 60, you probably have to do some sort of a celebration. Um, but just to give you guys an update for Friday, we've got the newsletter coming out on Friday. We've got a couple of uh big companies highlighted. We're going to highlight Hutate's deal this week. Also, we've got uh Terolf as well in the newsletter, plus a lot lot more news there. All our podcasts are in the newsletter. So, if you haven't signed up, go to the website, sign up for the newsletter before Friday. You'll start getting it straight away. It comes out once a week.

[00:29:42]Lots of information in there. Um hope hopefully you like it. We've seen the numbers um going up quite nicely. So um uh hopefully you can join join the group and uh keep up to date with everything that's going on.

[00:29:53]>> Yeah, and can't wait for earnings again kicking off first week of August. So there you have it you guys. Some great updates today. Let us know your thoughts. We'll see you back here on Friday.