Bengal Elections: High Turnout, SIR Deletion Impact & Mamata's Pitch vs BJP's Hindu Card

追加: 2026-04-30

[00:00:00]Both the sides in many ways are dismissing these numbers. The BJP says that what is being projected projected is perhaps underestimation of what the party will achieve. The Trinimul Congress at the same time dismisses these polls saying that they would be they have been always underestimated that the party is getting a fourth consecutive term. Uh so what are the numbers in terms of the two phases?

[00:00:26]Remember it is being seen as historic unprecedented a phrase that is being used as well. Bengal phase one 152 seats that went to polls the numbers stand at 93.16%.

[00:00:40]In phase two where 142 seats pled which included you know where mabanji strike rate had been upwards of 80% that has pled 92.55%.

[00:00:52]So overall this number is this anti-incumbumbery numbers or is this because of the SIR deletion which has been roughly around 10%. So let's look at the SIR impact in numbers. So overall the deletion which has happened. I'm looking at Mushidabad.

[00:01:12]This in all 7.5 lakh votes deleted in Mushidabad. It has a significantly high percentage of Muslims. [music] uh we are looking at Malda now and before SIR the numbers were at 32 after SIR the numbers went down to 27.5 lakhs the overall deletion is at 4.5 lakh uh another region which is north 24 paranas which went to polls in the second phase before deletion this district had 83 lakh voters after deletion it went down to 70.7 7. So roughly around 12.38 lakhs. In terms of the population of Muslims, it is 25 to 26%. This is Motwa dominated uh constituency roughly around 31. Most of these seats were won by the Trinamur Congress in 2021. Now look at south 24 paranas because south 24 paranas uh in this uh district out of 31 seats Mtab Banerjee had won 30 which is the Trinur Congress and one seat went to ISF in south 24 Pinas.

[00:02:25]Uh the number before the SIR exercise began was at 85.9 lakh waters it went down to 75.5 [music] lakh waters. Uh when we look at the X factors of this election, it is Mammoth Banerjee as well. As we have been saying for many of us who were on ground covering this election, it was safe to say that it is the chief minister, a woman chief minister for 15 long years who seen as a fighter has been a custodian almost of the culture of the state is standing between the BJP and Nabuna which is the seat of power in Kolkata. Mam manager's personal appeal unparalleled and at the same time there has been anti-BJP mobilization by the Trinamur Congress which [music] has been one of the X- factors. The other factor certainly would be which we'll be watching out for as we have given those numbers is the controversial SIR deletion. Remember that made mabanji in fact argue before a Supreme Court uh judge as well. So the message was that she can appear and take that fight up legally. There was a massive legal and political battle which played out. Who does the record voter turnout really benefit? Although the jury is divided that whether it is anti-incumbency or pro-inccumby votes. We have seen in multiple cases that this high voter turnout could be also pro-incumbent. But given the high voter turnout, the BJP says that this is against the incumbent.

[00:04:03]Can BJP then successfully convert vote share into seeds particularly in several parts of North Bengal? That has been their big challenge because remember the BJP's vote share has been consistently at 38%. 38% is what they have been winning election after election from 2021 [music] to 2024. Their overall numbers in the Lok Sabha did go down from 2019 where they stood at 18 to 12.

[00:04:33]But as far as the vote share is [music] concerned, it stood consistently from 2021 assembly elections where they won 77 seats to uh 8 12 seats in the Lok Sabha at 38%. The BJP has played the anti-migrant Hindu card. Will it result in polarization is the big question. Of course, the Trinimore Congress's big consolidation is aimed at the Muslims and the Mahila because the Trinimore Congress through Lakir Bandar or Lakshmi Bandar scheme of the state government has been looking at the welfare pitch of Mtab Banerjee. She has been giving those 1,500 rupees to the women of Bengal. So, will the women of Bengal move away from the chief minister of three terms? Of course the larger question is also uh Thranmool Congress's network which has been evident [music] something which has been winning mamabanji election after election what role will be played by the left and the congress uh the exit polls are suggesting that they would be somewhere between 0 to five perhaps the congress could manage one seat even Adiranjan chri the projections are could lose his constituency