Market Analysis: Bitcoin Bear Market Rally

追加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Bitcoin's hovering around the $80,000 mark as everyone waits in anticipation of this committee hearing for the Clarity Act. I wanted to do a bit of an update leading into that. Just to discuss my thoughts on current price action, zooming out for the bigger picture because what I've seen on X over the last couple of days is quite a bit of conflict from people that I actually respect with some being very very bullish and others being very very bearish. So, I thought this would be a good opportunity for me to come on to YouTube and give you my opinion just based on technical analysis. As you know, if you know this channel, I don't worry too much about the news. I trade pure price action. So, I'm going to show you what I'm seeing starting from higher time frames and going back to what I had previously talked about the last time you guys all saw me. So, if you're new here, welcome. If you're returning, welcome back. I'm Annie. This is Trade Travel Chill. And we're going to get straight into the charts for Bitcoin.

[00:00:54]I'm going to focus on the weekly first just to show you this chart that is untouched actually since this retracement right here that happened in April of 2025. So, we were still in a bull market back then. And once that retracement had happened and price started to move away, that made it possible for me to set a target for the all-time high. And as you can see here, these were the two areas that I had talked about. The first one being between 1246 to 1295 and then a little bit higher up at about 138 which was dependent on how much volume came in on this last push. Now the volume didn't come in. So when you have a look at this chart, if you've never seen charts with these colored candles before, the colors represent volume. So when they turn a different color other than white and gray, they're showing that an extreme amount of volume is coming in. And that usually well can either mean a false move depending on how the structure is looking. It can also mean confluence in the trend. And so when you have a trend moving to the upside like this part right here and you don't see any colored vectors in it at all, there's no strength in that trend. So it was at that point that as a technical analyst, you start to prepare for your first target to be the best we're going to get. And that's what happened. If you're around on this channel, you will know that basically I was selling out into the last quarter of last year. So that got us free and clear of that cycle. We managed to get into it very well. We were in within a $100 range of the bare market bottom. We were out in perfect timing because besides going based off volume and technical analysis, we also combined that with cycle timing. And that all worked in our favor. So therefore, what I decided to do was go back to have a look at cycle timing for where we might be right now. Because since then, what we can see is that price has come down. It's held support around the weekly time frame 200 EMA and then it's made this move up attempting the weekly time frame 50 EMA. Now, it's this little move here where people are feeling bullish and that the Clarity Act is going to bring back the bull market.

[00:03:06]It might. But my caution to you is that the lesson I just taught you about there being a lack of volume in high time frame candles through here is the exact same lesson that we have here. We do not have any super high buying volume in this move to the upside when we have a look at the weekly time frame. So in that case, I then want to zoom out and I want to have a look at prior cycles to see if I can see any similarities. So when I go back to the last cycle and I show you them both on the screen here, one thing that just looking with the naked eye stands out very obvious to me is that the last cycle in 2021 had an initial peak, a deep retracement and then it had a second peak that only just made a higher high and that actually marked the all-time high of that cycle before the bare market started. When we come to the last cycle or the all-time high that we've recently had, same thing. We had our first initial high. We had a deep retracement. And even more similar than that, you can see that that deep retracement went to the 50 EMA on the weekly. This deep retracement also did the same thing. And then we went into a higher high before. If you believe we're in a bare market, the bare market started. I believe we're in a bare market. Now, following those two moves there, what? Well, not two moves.

[00:04:26]Let's talk about the last cycle here.

[00:04:28]Following that move, following this move here to the downside, there was a bare market rally where people also turned bullish and thought that the worst was over. And that was this movement right here, which really doesn't look like much. But after the all-time high was in, Bitcoin came back to 33,000.

[00:04:46]And then it had this rally here, which was actually a 45% rally. It's pretty big. And then we rolled over and continued down. So what happened here was we attempted to get above the weekly 50 EMA. We printed a bearish candlestick formation right here where you see the bullish candle a dogee and then you see a bearish candle here. That's a star formation which is a bearish candlestick formation. It rolled over and we continued down. Now when I have a look at just this price action right here and then we go to have a look at where we are right now. remembering that we're looking at just this price action after rejecting and coming down since the all-time high. So, after rejecting and coming down since the all-time high, this price action to me looks very, very similar to this last cycle where now it looks like nothing on a chart, but when you measure it, it's 45%. What we're up to right now in this current retracement is about 37%. Now, the same thing could happen. We haven't even made it to the 50 EMA yet. It's possible we roll over from here. As I said, we've got, you know, cryptoreated news coming up. It's going to affect us for the next week. If it passes there, it has to go to the Senate. The Senate, my understanding is that they will vote very quickly. So, we should know everything unless there's amendments that drag things out. We should know everything about this by I believe around the 20th of May, best case scenario. So, there could be another week or so worth of upside, but that doesn't put us back in the bull market. And very often what happens with bullish news in a bare market is that it does cause a rally, but the rally is shortterm and then things just go back to how they're meant to be anyway, which is still bearish because we're in a bare market. A rally if it still creates a lower high, we're still in a bare market. So technically, we would have to rally above 98 99K and then sustain above there to change our opinion on this. So at this point in time, we're not close to there, so it doesn't matter. So it is possible that we have more to go. Lower time frames will show us that, which I will get to in this video as well, but it is possible we have more to go. But the inevitable, in my opinion, is that there is still more downside to come following whatever happens. And I don't care if it gets passed or it doesn't get passed. I follow price action and cycle timing.

[00:07:04]And the price action is showing me again no momentum in this move to the upside.

[00:07:10]no colored candles, very very similar pattern to the last cycle where the bare market then continued. We continued down from here. And what does that mean as far as targets? Well, once we had this move to the downside, most of the time, Bitcoin likes to hold the 200 EMA, the yellow EMA on my chart right here. In this case, we had a pretty nasty bare market in the 22 cycle because we had all the Luna stuff, then we had the something else. What was it? Celsius and then we had FTX and all like it was a pretty harsh bare market actually and a lot of volatility a lot of big moves to the downside and the final one was the FTX thing. So we know that the FTX situation was based on manipulation and basically the biggest players in the industry fighting with each other.

[00:07:58]But if we take away that last move that caused that actual bare market bottom because that shouldn't have happened cuz that's manipulation and we just take it from here where we were finding support before that happened. I think it was before that happened. I'm just going off memory here. But the moral of the story is once the price dropped to the 200 EMA on the weekly time frame, we saw another 33% down. So when we have a look at the current price action, we haven't dropped the 200 EMA yet. What I'm about to say is not my target. I want to be clear about that. I want to tell you if past was to repeat into the future, another 33% down from the weekly time frame 200 EMA might put the cycle bottom somewhere at around 45 46k. Now, my target for the bare market bottom was around 50 52,000.

[00:08:46]That's what I thought we would retrace to. And the reason why I'm now open to potentially further than that is cuz we got not too far from that already. So, I've been to 60,000. And when I combine that with cycle timing, I don't believe that if we're only 10 grand off my initial target, I don't believe that when and if we hit that number that that will mean that the bare market is over and that's the bottom because it's a combination of like I said price action and cycle timing. So, in my opinion, we hit the 60K far too early and again that's why I expected a little bit of a bare market rally. You have to bring us back up after such a dramatic move to the downside. You have to bring us back up to build liquidity to get people to have these exact conversations about is it over, is it not? Are we bullish, are we bearish? Like the market has to confuse you and get you married to an opinion and hopefully the wrong one so that later on the market can take your money. That's what the markets are, you know? So, it's doing what it's meant to be doing. And that's why I did expect that there would be a bare market rally at some point. There's just no volume in this one, you know. And again, that's why I think eventually, whether it happens this week, next week, or the week after, I do think eventually this is going to roll over. And probably what it's going to take is for the Clarity Act news to be out of the way, for it to be done and dusted for a while, people to realize, oh, it doesn't change things all of a sudden, and then bang, we just go back to being in the bare market.

[00:10:15]That was inevitable. Anyway, so my personal belief when I think about cycle timing is that the bare market shouldn't really settle or we shouldn't find the bare market bottom of this cycle until more towards the final quarter of this year. That's my opinion. It may change, but that's my opinion for now. It's been my opinion all year. It's been my opinion since the all-time high. So therefore, there is time for us to have a deeper move to the downside than what I originally thought. That's the long version of what I was trying to tell you. But it also depends on how much higher we retrace. So when that matters, when the price action is there, we will talk about that then. But I just wanted to explain it to you now so that you know why I don't consider this a buying opportunity. For me personally, I don't think that the bottom of the bare market is in and price action is showing me that. Now, with that out the way, let's go back to Bitcoin's daily time frame.

[00:11:13]And let's talk about the daily price action. So, quite some time ago. When was it? It was when's the date? 27th of April, and it's now the 12th of May. So, a couple weeks ago, I posted this chart on my ex. And this is a daily time frame chart for Bitcoin. And it was in this channel. And for many months, I had had these two zones of liquidity marked on the chart. one being around the 80k area and the other being around the 84 to 86k area. Price now is in the zone of the 80k. So it's exactly the same as what I explained to you about the targets is once the price gets in there. You then reassess the volume, the momentum and all these sorts of things. And that's where you start to decide whether you think it's going to keep going to your second area or it's about to roll over.

[00:11:59]So, because price is in that first liquidity zone, that's why I'm back here to explain to you what my thoughts are right now. And I did put a lot of my thoughts in this X post. If you're not following me on X, the link is in the description down below. It's good to jump on there because sometimes it's just easier for me to do a written update than to get on and produce a video. So, with that in mind, this was the zone. So, what you can see is that price has eaten right through that zone.

[00:12:24]When I zoom out on this chart, you'll see that the reason why I was expecting it is because of the TBD system where we trade on the understanding that price action moves in waves of three. So, this was our first move to the downside.

[00:12:37]Then, we went into a bit of a flag formation. This was our second move to the downside. And in my opinion, there should be a third one to come. And that's why I've been spending all of this time just waiting for that to happen. And there really hasn't been much for me to update you and tell you because the volume has been super low within this flag. This is also a corrective flag. There's no momentum here. This is not a nice bullish trend to the upside. This is weak. It's extremely weak. We have rising open interest which is really designed to trap. And really that rising open interest, it could very well be the market maker hedging against traders.

[00:13:17]And one way you can check that is by looking at CBDs. So when I zoom out on the CVD, this is since the 27th of March here. So around that 65K region, right, where we've had price moving to the upside generally that entire time. The coin margin has been a bit flip-flopped.

[00:13:34]So we'll ignore that one. But you can see here that the stable coin margin, so people using leverage to trade Bitcoin, it's steadily moving to the upside. that open interest is rising and so is the spot. And so because that's rising, but it's rising on weak volume, that is a pretty good indication that market makers are hedging with spot against these retail traders that are using leverage, meaning they're going to get wrecked soon. Don't know how soon, but soon. So just be careful of that. If you are in long positions where you're using leverage, fine, ride the wave, but manage your trades really well because when the time comes, it'll likely come fast and you don't want to be having to make the decision then cuz that's when you make a panic decision and that's when you make the wrong one. You can also see down here that the volume is declining. So you got the volume declining here on a rising price action with rising open interest. So it's not a real trend. The moral of the story is it's not a real trend and we're in the zone to start looking for rejections to start to expect that next leg down.

[00:14:43]We'll talk about the next leg down in a second, but let's talk about where the rejection could happen. So, I mentioned to you that we're in the first zone.

[00:14:50]Once we get into the first zone, we use the lower time frames to understand if it's the time for that major rejection or not. And if it's not, then we wait for the next zone. So, if it turns out that it's not happening basically now, which is why I'm on the video, then we going to be doing this exact process that I'm showing you at somewhere between 83K and 86K, let's say. Okay?

[00:15:15]So, just keep that in mind if price keeps going up. So, we're aware of what's happening on the larger time frame. that equips us with what we need to look out for on the lower time frames because that helps you get your entries or exit your existing trades with the best risk-to-reward when you enter on low time frames. That's just how it is.

[00:15:34]So, when we go down to the 4hour time frame, then this was the play that I put into my Discord community on Sunday. So, every Sunday I do an update for the private Discord community. If you want to come and join us, if you want to learn how to trade, my memberships aren't just a Discord community. It's a entire education system teaching you exactly how I trade. It's all self-paced. And then we have the community that so many helpful people in there to help you understand and catch up to what everyone's talking about. In addition to that, we have a big team of traders that give you price action updates three times a day. So no matter where you are in the world, if you want to trade the Asia session, UK or US session, there's a trader there to guide you on what they think is going to happen in that session so that you understand how the strategy is playing out. So moral of the story is I do the updates on Sunday and this was my idea.

[00:16:27]Now Sunday was here. So price hadn't started to move up. Price was around here somewhere. And basically what I was telling them was as I explained earlier, we trade a model where we expect things to happen in threes. So this was the third move to the downside, meaning I'm now expecting three moves to the upside.

[00:16:46]Here is my first. Here is my second. And at the time I was waiting for third.

[00:16:51]Sorry, no, the third had happened, but I wasn't quite sure if the third was finished. So my advice to the community was wait to see if price comes back into this area of interest. always we look around the halfway mark which is the dotted line here. If we see a rejection that's where we'll go short. So that's what happened actually cuz following that we had this move to the upside which was the false move that starts the week and then we had this strong rejection with this red candle here. Now on lower time frames let me show you on the 1 hour. Nothing ended up happening after that. So this was the move here.

[00:17:24]This is the false move that opens the week wrecks the weekend traders and then we came down. So that was where to get the entry that essentially created a high time frame M formation which is a bearish formation and that's where you get your entry that happened but then all yesterday basically nothing happened. So pretty boring trading day.

[00:17:44]However, price action didn't invalidate that M. So this is the M here. We just don't have the breakdown yet. It stopped. So that's what I'm waiting for right now with with my community. I'm waiting to see if the breakdown happens here. The thing is that the longer it takes generally, the less chance it has of happening. So that's why I was saying to you earlier on the daily time frame, I'm open to because we're spending too much time in this zone right here. I'm open to us pushing up into the higher one before we see that rejection. But I'll be looking for the exact same M formation if it happens. For now, the trade that I'm in is not invalidated. I don't exit my trades unless they're invalidated. So, I'm giving this one a chance and it might break down from here. If it fails me, I'm okay with that. So, if it doesn't break down from here, just going to be looking up that little bit higher somewhere around 83 to 85K. But, in an ideal world, this will play out and we will break down. So, therefore, what am I looking for today?

[00:18:42]I'm personally not trading anything lower than a 1 hour time frame right now because I find the 1 hour to be a lot clearer. And once you go to 15 minute, all you see is major manipulation all the time. Like market makers are playing us like there's no tomorrow. Look at this. You have your move up, it's immediately taken back. You have your move up, it's immediately taken back. On very very small time frames, unless you're scalping and you're like, you just have a rule that you're out at a 2:1 or you're out at a 3:1. This is extremely difficult to trade and get right. Like you might make money, but I would say that your win rate would be very low right now if you're trying to trade this. They take it up, they take it straight back. They take it up, they take it straight back. It's the same story. Look at this. They take it down, straight back, up, down, up. Like, what is this price action, you know? So, I'm not interested. When I can see what the market maker is trying to do, and I can see that he's trying to take my money.

[00:19:37]No, thank you very much. I just zoom out to a higher time frame. I exert more patience because higher time frames mean trades take longer to play out. So, I exert more patience and I just trade when it's clear and let price do its thing. So, that's what I'm doing right now. I'm letting price do its thing.

[00:19:54]Now, what would I do if I wasn't in this trade and I believed in it? I believed we were coming down. What I would be doing today, if I wanted to get into this trade now, because that M has already happened, I do have a lower high, which is a good sign, but I don't have a break below yesterday's low of the day. We held that pretty much for the whole day. A very small week here around the US open, but we basically held that the whole day today. Right now, at the time of me filming this, it looks like the price is about to break today's initial low of the day. What would be perfect for me? I'll give you two scenarios that would have me opening a short if I wasn't already short. The first one would be that price breaks it for the rest of the UK session and then we have a retest around 50% Asia, which is going to be around 81,200 somewhere around there. We reject 50% Asia. If I get the bearish candlestick formations, that's where I would open my short. And my target initially is going to be the low of the week, which is 78120. That would be the first case scenario where I would take a short if I wasn't already short today and price did that. The second scenario where I would take a short would be if price broke heavily down now. So, heavily below the initial low of the day, below the 200 EMA. I'm on the 1 hour time frame. And then retested the initial low of the day. That's where again, same thing.

[00:21:13]bearish candlestick formations, all that kind of thing. And then I'd have my short from there. Because at the same time, what would happen is the 200 EMA would start to do this. So basically, what I'd have is a retest of the 200 EMA and the initial low of the day. And that's pretty good. I've got two reasons to short now. Also, just a break of yesterday's support. So that that' be a good area for me. But I always like to get in at the highest price possible when I'm opening short positions. So 50% Asia would probably give me a better riskreward. This one may not be as good.

[00:21:46]It kind of depends on what the wicks look like at the time. But if I wanted a short and I didn't have a short, that's what I would be doing. And then see how it plays out from there because that is a rejection if that happens of a high time frame M, which is only level one of three levels, which means we could be going down a lot further. So hope you enjoyed that video. If you did, just to let you know, I will soon be opening a free section again in our Discord. We used to have it a long time ago. We got rid of it because we had lots of scammers in there, but we've now worked out a way to have the free Discord and not have scammers. Well, people still DM you. So, you always got to understand in Discord, you just don't ever answer a DM. However, we won't have people openly trying to scam you inside of our Discord where we see it and can't do anything about it. So, we will be opening reopening that again soon. If you want to be part of it, the only thing that we ask in return is that you join an exchange that you are trading on using one of the links in the description of our videos. So, check it out down below.

[00:22:49]Bitnix is the one that I trade regularly on. I trade on Pionex as well, but there's some exchanges down there. Check them out. Join that. And then on my next video, I'll let you know how to get into the free community. If you enjoyed this video, be sure to hit like and subscribe. I'm ruining this channel by not being here much. So, all your help is highly appreciated.