WEST BENGAL EXIT POLL 2026:  “Can Breach 170 Seats?” Big Claim on Momentum After Phase 1

Added: 2026-05-01

[00:00:00]tested that that's about what 3540 seats.

[00:00:03]>> Yeah. So essentially the range for BJP is 143 to 163.

[00:00:08]>> So that's how the midpoint or the median is 153. The range for TMC is 127 to 147.

[00:00:15]>> So the midpoint is 137. And of course others are four seats on an overall basis. There are 39 seats in phase 2 >> which are marginal seats which could flip either ways. Currently 21 of them BJP is leading and 18 of them TMC is leading. So 39 seats are too close to call. However, on the basis of this division between 21 and 18, it seems that the BJP is likely to achieve a simple majority just crossing the 147 mark within a range of 143 to 163 and TMC getting stuck at 127 to 14. So these 21 seats that the BJP is leading marginally or the Sunumul is leading marginally 18 seeds these 39 seats this can swing either way that means the BJP if it pulls and if it's got the momentum it can hit the 170s >> correct so if it sustains the momentum which it has received in phase one then it is likely to breach the 170 mark so land up in >> why did it take you Amitab Tari why did it take you so long to reveal your numbers I know that Axis after making that huge huge big splash with Tamil Nadu has decided to shelf absolutely in some ways shelf viewers >> its BJP projections or its TMC projections for Bengal. Why is it that you have taken 24 hours little over 24 hours after the polls ended yesterday to come out with these numbers? Is it tough?

[00:01:46]See whenever there is a polling happening on that particular day we as a policy even Bihar numbers if you recall both Praep Gupta GI and myself had revealed the numbers one day later why because if we are releasing the numbers at I'm not talking about that he is he's decided not to publish >> you have pre-arabricated you have weighed up you have assessed and you've come out now 24 hours after the event >> so I can understand caution Yeah, >> but what explains his decision to sort of >> throw in the towel and not call the numbers because you know here is the >> poll of polls and if you really look at today's chanaka >> look at that that is at this >> 03 for BJP mark is 1461 matrice is 1461 look at that outlier and vote vibe sort of is you know tucking itself into where matrice peach And even Chanaka strategies is in one sense in JBC which is at the bottom. So how is it that today's Chanaka is in a directionally completely uh a space of its own? You're sort of been you've taken about 24 hours to come to a conclusion that perhaps others did much quicker.

[00:03:02]>> How is it that they've sort of done this so quickly and why is it that access is not coming out at all? Now I can ask that question of access. They have done it quickly because they have gone along with the samples at maybe 1 or 2 p.m.

[00:03:16]itself >> when the turnout is 93% >> and the turnout figure is coming to us when it is coming to us at almost 8 or 9 p.m.

[00:03:25]>> Okay. So what is the size of this? Uh >> this is 22 + 14. So this is 36,000 sample for the entire >> 36,000 and and this is across across >> across it is minimum 100 samples per seat. So 294 seats. So it it should be 29,400. We've done 36,000 samples.

[00:03:43]>> Okay. So you're saying a minimum of 100.

[00:03:46]>> Yeah.

[00:03:46]>> And you're saying that that is good enough to give you a number like this.

[00:03:50]>> A direction.

[00:03:51]>> A direction.

[00:03:52]>> There is another aspect Rahul which we must say that we are perhaps one of the few who've done a vote tracker for more than a month. None of them.

[00:04:00]>> So we started early March. We did three trackers uh week on week Monday after Monday till the 6th of April and thereafter there has been another tracker which has happened along with the exit poll which has looked at the CM phase and also the mood. So there is a robust collection of data over a period of time to look at a possible trajectory and that perhaps adds to the trust value of this >> trust. Yes. But let me ask Abuja was making a point and we were speaking to you earlier Abuja Mitra and you said that >> from what we've heard anecdotally I don't know if there's a statement that has been put out by access for instance >> say the voter is being kg >> yes >> not speaking at all do you buy this >> to 80% being kg no >> 20 30% being kg I can believe how is it that everybody they're talking to everybody everybody else but not to access.

[00:04:55]There's something that's not adding up here. I think we've seen the boo boos with the Tamad poll where even the baselines were wrong. See, I can understand the percentage.

[00:05:03]>> So, you're saying he's chickenened out?

[00:05:04]>> I think it's chickenening out.

[00:05:05]>> Okay. Now, hang on. So, this is this is where things are not squaring up. Anand then please help explain. If there is a mood for change, >> right, >> and if the voter is feeling so enthused that they have set a record, >> right, >> and they know the repercussions also of stepping out of their homes in certain places because we know, >> right?

[00:05:26]>> Then why would they even tell you >> the the reason being this phase and let's if I can walk across to the magic wall, I just try and show you why it is so important. The biggest win for the B for the trunamul is this. This is the strong phase and and there have been and in fact some of the uh viewers if we were to quickly look at the state and just look at pardon there you go let's look at phase two and phase two the differential phase one not much separates the BJP and the 3% vote share but here look at this there's a 13% differential this 13% this 13% differential also and in a region where the BJP has been very weak it got only 18 seats. Yes, in 2019 Lok Soba it did go up to about 37 seats because on the assembly projections but at the Lok Sabha projections to the assembly seats but uh in the in the assembly level the BJP has been vulnerable 13. So that means the concentration of votes, margin of votes has been very strong and we've tried to explain that in numeric that the BJP has to get a fair share of the Hindu vote at least 10% shift of the Hindu vote along with some of the Muslim vote either not voting or moving away from the tunu. So there have been lot of factors that have got to play on ground and we'll try and show to you that in absolute numbers also the voter turnout has been greater. So seat conversion in phase 2 for the BJP is much tougher than seat conversion in phase one. And that's why they needed to get within three figures in phase one. If they didn't get within three figures in phase one, there was no way they could have beaten the Tunal Congress in Bengal.