The Biggest Storm Of May Is Still Ahead...

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]A dangerous severe weather pattern is about to pop off across the United States and severe weather chances are going to ramp up significantly later this week. From the Great Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley, increasing instability and a lot of wind shear will set the stage for multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms later this week and into the weekend, which will be capable of producing tornadoes, destructive, damaging winds, and very large hail. This will mark the beginning of a prolonged active stretch of severe weather as we head deeper into May with several days of severe weather possible across densely populated regions of the country. This is shaping up to be one of the most active periods of weather that we've had since April. So, let's get right into the forecast. And as we talked about in our last forecast, we have a lot of severe weather coming later this week and into the weekend.

[00:00:50]And in fact, the Storm Prediction Center now has two different days outlined on Saturday and Sunday for the risk of significant severe weather, possibly even severe weather outbreaks. So, Saturday right now looks like a pretty significant risk of severe storms stretching from Texas into Iowa and Nebraska. We will be talking about the risk of damaging winds, very large hail, and even the possibility of a few tornadoes mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. But one day that I find way more concerning is Sunday. I do think Sunday has the potential to be an outbreak of severe weather with all hazards including tornadoes, damaging winds, and also hail stretching from Oklahoma back into Wisconsin. This day in particular is going to feature a much stronger low pressure system, which means wind shear will more than likely be stronger on Sunday. Additionally, I do think this risk area could grow in size as we go into future outlooks. So, if you live over near Chicago, even in southern Wisconsin, and even back into central and southern Oklahoma, I do think Sunday is a day that we need to watch for closely. And even before and after this, there will be other shots of severe weather because as we go into Monday, we could see even more severe weather from Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana back into Texas and Louisiana.

[00:02:04]And before we talk about the timing of severe weather, I do want to go day by day and show you where the highest risk of severe storms will exist because there will be other risks of severe storms even outside of Saturday and Sunday. In fact, we actually have a risk of severe weather today across parts of the central plains back into the Midwest where there's a pretty large marginal threat of severe weather. It is a low-end day. There could even be some severe weather in Florida today with even a possibility of a couple of tornadoes. We'll talk more about that here later in the forecast. will go way more detail about the timing and also where the highest risk is going to be located on Wednesday. The risk of severe weather will be a lot lower, but I am anticipating at least some isolated severe storms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and then another risk of severe weather, believe it or not, in Montana, Utah, even maybe Wyoming. So, we'll talk more about that here in a moment as well. As we go into Thursday, the risk of severe weather does appear to be pretty low. I am monitoring at least a low threat of isolated hail storms over in Kansas on Thursday.

[00:03:01]Generally speaking though, outside of that, I don't really see much happening.

[00:03:04]And then Friday, I could see being a sneaky day of significant severe weather. There is going to be a lot of instability in place all across the central and southern plains. And if storms are able to initiate in this environment, there will be a possibility of very large hail and possibly even a tornado threat. So Friday is a day that we need to watch for closely, but it is a conditional risk and hence why the Storm Prediction Center does not have a risk of severe weather outline for Friday as of right now. On Saturday, this environment becomes even more favorable for severe weather, especially in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. And then on Sunday, that is when we could have the most large-scale severe weather event take place. I am looking at anywhere from about Wisconsin, Illinois, and Iowa back into Texas and Oklahoma for the highest risk of severe storms with all hazards on the table, including a more elevated risk of tornadoes depending on our trough timing. And then Monday would basically be the leftovers of the severe weather on Sunday. So, there should be at least some continuation of numerous thunderstorms from Michigan back into Texas, and that should lead to even more severe weather. So, I do think it is important to make sure that you're staying tuned to the channel and making sure you come back to our latest weather forecast every single day because we'll give you the latest details on each one of these days. There is definitely a low floor and high ceiling with every day right now since the predictability isn't super high, but I personally think that the highest potential of seeing some sort of outbreak will likely be on Sunday. However, Saturday and Monday could also have that possibility. And in just a moment, we'll talk more about the timing of severe weather and why this weekend is going to be crazy. But before we do that, we need to talk about the sponsor of today's video. Before we get back into the forecast, I have a question for you. Have you ever been lying in bed late at night googling symptoms, convincing yourself something is wrong, and then still not booking the appointment? Last time, for me, it started as something small, just a weird feeling that was always at the back of my head. I spent like an hour going down a rabbit hole at midnight convincing myself it was just something seriously wrong with my wrist and finally just sat there thinking, "Yeah, I need to stop guessing and actually talk to a real doctor." This is exactly why I started using today's sponsor, Zach. And this changed everything for me. Zdoc is a free website where you can find and book in network doctors across all 50 states.

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[00:06:09]Now, let's go dayby day with the timing of all of this activity. And we'll begin with what is happening today. There will be a risk of some isolated severe weather later this afternoon into the evening from Michigan back into Oklahoma. These will be pretty isolated to scattered severe storms. It'll be much more scattered in the Midwest and also the Ohio Valley. Much more isolated in the central plains, mainly looking at a large hail threat this evening. We'll talk more about the timing in a second.

[00:06:33]There's even a sneaky tornado threat down in Florida that we'll talk more about here in just a moment. As we head into Wednesday, a storm system will impact the Pacific Northwest. Not expecting much more than just some showers. Not really expecting much thunderstorm activity up there. Over here in the Mid-Atlantic, we're watching for another risk of isolated to scattered severe storms, mainly with a pocket change size hail and damaging wind gust threat Thursday. This storm system in the Pacific Northwest will move into Canada. This may lead to some isolated severe storms across Minnesota Thursday afternoon. That could even continue into Wisconsin Thursday evening. Again, mainly looking at wind out of that. Some large hail is also possible on late Thursday into early Friday morning. There could be some overnight hail storms over here in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. So, something we should be monitoring over the next couple of days. If you guys live in those areas, make sure that you're subscribed to our channel. We'll give you the latest updates on this activity as it could cause some problems when you're sleeping over here in the Midwest. Now, Friday is really the first day that we need to be keeping a very close eye on. The reason why I'm watching Friday is that there is a conditional risk of severe weather as I alluded to a moment ago. There will be a very weak surface base low pressure system developing in Texas and Oklahoma by Friday evening. The one question will be is there going to be enough lift and also will we actually have a cap in place? Right now, it looks likely that that's going to be on the table, but the European model here is at least indicating maybe a couple of supercells trying to go up over here in Oklahoma, Kansas, and maybe even Texas. If we saw something here, there would be a pretty high chance of there being significant severe weather. So, we definitely have to watch any development. And I'm not ignoring you if you're in the Midwest because there is even a possibility of some thunderstorm activity in the Midwest late Friday night and early Saturday morning. This could lead to some damaging wind gusts and a very low-end tornado potential that might even continue into Saturday morning over there in Ohio. Saturday has a much better shot of seeing more significant severe weather on Saturday. That storm system is going to become more organized over in Texas and Oklahoma. Our low-level jet will begin to increase and the storm activity will be much more scattered to numerous. So, we are anticipating storms on Saturday with all hazards including mainly a damaging wind and hail threat, but an isolated tornado threat will exist mainly over there in Oklahoma. And then on Sunday, this is where question marks are fairly large right now in terms of the scale and the intensity of our severe weather event on Sunday. Right now, it looks to be pretty messy. That's at least what most models are showing. It shows a very messy setup on Sunday. But if we do end up seeing a much more organized storm system here over in the central plains, there could be a legitimate risk here of an outbreak of severe weather. The European model has a 990 mibar low pressure system in southwestern Kansas. That's very intense. And it also looks very organized by about Sunday around like 6:00 or so. And this could lead to several tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. So, if you live anywhere across the southern central plains or even in the Midwest, you really need to be paying attention to the weather really closely. We will continue to have daily weather updates on all this severe weather that is coming up as Sunday could easily be an outbreak of severe weather. This will transition into a pretty significant storm in the Midwest overnight Sunday into Monday morning. And then as we end Monday afternoon and evening, we could be talking about another significant day of severe weather from the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes into the southern plains with more damaging winds, hail, and possibly some tornatic activity being possible. And then Tuesday into Wednesday, things become a lot more uncertain. Right now, the European model has a weak low pressure system over in Arkansas, which may lead to tornadoes in the Mississippi River Valley. But with this being well over 5 to 7 days from now, things do remain highly uncertain.

[00:10:12]One thing that is a lot more certain though is that the last two weeks of May look to be hyperactive with a lot of chances of severe storms. As you can see here on the European model, there is literally several storms ejecting over the Rockies which will likely lead to at least a few severe weather outbreaks.

[00:10:27]And another indicator that there is a lot of severe weather coming is that one, it's May, and then two, the Climate Prediction Center has an above normal area for rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days, mainly across the Great Plains and back into the Midwest in the Ohio Valley with below average chances on the West Coast and on the immediate East Coast.

[00:10:47]This is all due to a large low pressure system that'll be developing in the upper levels that should slingshot multiple storms here into the Great Plains. So, it's going to get really active really quickly. And over the next 48 hours, there are two different risks of severe weather that we are watching for. The first one is today. We have two different marginal threats of severe weather. One of which is from Witchaw, Kansas into Wisconsin, and another one across central and eastern Florida where the main concern will be isolated wind and hail. But there is actually a low chance for a tornado or two over in central and eastern Florida. So, if you live near Orlando, Port St. Lucy or Port Canaveral, be watching out for maybe an isolated tornado threat this afternoon.

[00:11:24]We'll talk more about the timing in a second. And then tomorrow, the risk of severe weather will shift. Again, two different areas. One of which will be in Idaho, Montana, and Utah. The other one will be in the Mid-Atlantic. Looking at mostly an isolated wind and hail threat for tomorrow. Very low but nonzero tornado threat. And here's a quick little look at our timing for today. And we'll begin with Florida where there will be a remnant area of thunderstorms offshore throughout the rest of this morning. Some storms will pop up as we head into the afternoon, mainly looking at isolated large hail and damaging winds. Right around 3 to 4:00 is when that tornado threat will try to increase near Orlando, even back down towards the turnpike just west of Port St. Lucy. So, watch out for a low tornado threat this afternoon. Storms will arrive to the I 95 corridor sometime around 5 or 6 Eastern time and then they'll move offshore most likely by about 8 to 9:00.

[00:12:12]But it should be a pretty stormy afternoon here across Florida. And then back over in the Midwest, I'm not anticipating really any severe weather for the most part for most of the afternoon. I think any severe weather that happens here will likely happen sometime after sunset with some elevated thunderstorms producing large hail and maybe a damaging wind threat through about 8 until about 2:00 in the morning or so before that falls apart as it moves over into the Mid-Atlantic. And then as we head into Wednesday, the threat of severe weather will continue across Pennsylvania, New York, West Virginia. Mainly looking at downburst, damaging winds and hail. There will be a very low tornado risk, but again, very low, nonzero. Could see a brief tornado, but I think mostly wind for tomorrow.

[00:12:53]And as always, thank you all so much for watching today's forecast. If you are new to the channel, make sure to subscribe down below. Also, make sure to go subscribe to the Mormax Velocity YouTube channel. I'll put a link at the top of the description. We are releasing a new video over there later today. And then in a few weeks, we're planning on releasing our Kanka Key tornado documentary, which will be on the second channel. So, make sure to subscribe here. We're uploading a bunch of stuff on here basically every week or two. We also have our 24/7 live weather stream over there. So check it out and we will see you in the next video or live