European Long-Range Forecast Shows 100% Chance Of Super El Niño Forming

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]Well, inso is about to act up. El Nino southern oscillation. It's a constant factor when approaching seasonal forecast. And as we head closer to hurricane season, in this case, our confidence is growing that a strong El Nino is likely to develop. Fox Weather Live weekend host meteorologist Haley Meyer joining us now. Haley, I it is a question on how strong. I think that's what's most interesting to me. But it's one of those years where what seems to be a pretty boring topic actually might be a really big driver in the global circulation pattern over the coming months.

[00:00:30]>> Absolutely. And while you know the anticipation is building for hurricane season, this could have implications not only with whether or not we have an active season in either basin, but also on our winter pattern. I won't go too far ahead of myself here. We're still inching closer to summer. 26 days left until Atlantic hurricane season, which is also the countdown to the official start of meteorological summer. But anyway, uh what the latest model data is showing, at least with the Euro, 100% of their ensembles are hinting at not just an El Nino, not just a strong El Nino, but a super El Nino and some of the outputs are putting it as the strongest El Nino we have seen uh in the better part of really a few centuries even. So the previous run we knew strong and super elino was trending. 90% of the previous models had it but now 100% of the euro run is saying yes we are in favor of a super El Nino. Now what an El Nino does is it creates very much warmer water temperatures across the eastern Pacific. It also helps to promote rising air. So the EPAC likely going to be a very active basin this year. However, on the flip side, the uh atmosphere works as a balancing scale, right? It's always trying to equal out. So, if one area is going to be above average, well, one spot we're going to have more sinking air and wind shear, and that's what's going to suppress the Atlantic activity, specifically within the main development region. So, what meteorologists look for in determining whether you have an El Nino, Enzone Neutral, or a Leninia, is the water temperatures of the equatorial Pacific. Anything over half a degree Celsius or warmer beyond average, you're in an El Nino. Anything over 2° C plus, that's when you get into super El Nino territory. There are some cases in which the warm water of the Atlantic can sort of uh outrun the the wind shear and you can still get very strong storms to develop. Ones that come to mind, Eidalia, Michael, Wen, those were all in the last couple of decades here. But when you have such substantial warming in the eastern Pacific, that really is a sign that the Epac's definitely going to be the basin to watch. So I'm looking at you, Hawaii, and even spots in the desert southwest. I mean, you have tropical moisture as it pulls up the Mexican coastline that can get drugged in. So the monsunal season this year could also be something of note. And while I'm talking about the MDR and below average hurricane activity, one thing that the windshield really isn't going to be as impactful for is these storms closer to home. So, Gulf of America, right along the Gulfream, they're still trending right around average for tropical activity. And typically, those storms develop in the beginning and latter part of the hurricane season. So, think month one in June and then the final month closer to November. Uh so while yes, we're hopeful and you know fingers crossed that we will be below average, that's what all of the preliminary forecasts are calling for in the Atlantic, there is still a chance for a landfalling hurricane. And because we have these homegrown tropical threats, it makes things all the more imperative that you stay attuned to the forecast because you don't have a lot of time like you would if you're tracking out a wave from the MDR. And then looking over at the hurricanes for the Eastern Pacific, Euro forecasting 10 hurricanes and the average is eight. So guys, I've never been to Hawaii, but I wouldn't mind a trip to Hawaii to do some hurricane coverage. We've done it before.

[00:03:56]>> Yeah, you're right. Seems like we might be up for it again.

[00:03:58]>> And uh and Hawaii has been, interestingly enough, one of the states in the US that has had more close calls than others in the lower 48 as of late, which has been a wild thing to see. And with an El Nino developing, as you just highlighted, that Pacific, the Eastern Pacific, can be uh hot like a firecracker. We'll see. All right.