Trump’s Lack Of Patience Could Hand Iran The Win | Jonathan Schanzer

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]I actually believe that there is an important timeline that is ongoing right now that could bring quite a bit to bear. Okay. Specifically, I'm talking about the uh the the blockade on the Persian Gulf on the street of Hormuz uh that will that has already had a significant impact on uh Iranian vessels and any vessel looking to do trade with the Islamic Republic. That is costing the regime somewhere around $400 million a day. And the more that they are unable to export oil or to bunker it anywhere, to store it anywhere, we may see a a point soon where they have to cap their own wells. If that were to be the case, then you could start to see the regime lose billions of dollars. And this is the leverage that I think the United States may ultimately get.

[00:00:46]>> Iran's supreme leader says there will be no safe haven for US forces in the Middle East after more attacks were carried out by America in southern Iran overnight. The US military said its attacks would defensive action to protect American troops. This puts into question the prospect of a peace deal that would extend a ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the strait, and lay the foundation for talks on Iran's nuclear programs, although US officials insist one is still possible. Let's speak to Jonathan Shanza, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington DCbased think tank. Hello to you, Jonathan Shanza. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington's back channel talks with Iran would continue after American forces carried out strikes, but Iran isn't likely to be primed to listen now.

[00:01:37]>> No, I don't think Iran is primed to listen. I think if anything, the regime has probably not changed its position as it relates to negotiating over uh highlyenriched uranium, its nuclear program, its missiles, its proxies. In other words, every one of the core issues that has been on the table, they have rebuffed the president consistently, but the talks continue.

[00:02:00]And I think that is essentially what Marco Rubio and Donald Trump are still holding on to.

[00:02:04]>> Right. But what levers are there left that the US can pull to force Tran to do any of the things you've just outlined?

[00:02:11]>> Well, I I actually believe that there is an important timeline that is ongoing right now that could bring quite a bit to bear. Okay. Specifically, I'm talking about the uh the the blockade on the Persian Gulf on the street of Hormuz uh that will that has already had a significant impact on uh Iranian vessels and any vessel looking to do trade with the Islamic Republic. That is costing the regime somewhere around $400 million a day. And the more that they are unable to export oil or to bunker it anywhere, to store it anywhere, we may see a a point soon where they have to cap their own wells. If that were to be the case, then you could start to see the regime lose billions of dollars. And this is the leverage that I think the United States may ultimately get, but that will require patience on the part of the US president. And you may have heard right now he doesn't seem to be particularly patient.

[00:03:05]>> Well, he may not have that much time.

[00:03:07]And it's interesting that you quantify the impact that it could have on the Isra Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Is Islamic Republic.

[00:03:14]The point is they've got more time.

[00:03:16]They're prepared to sit it out for longer than Donald Trump might like to or can with a restless electorate.

[00:03:24]>> Well, let let me let me put some of this in into context. I mean, number one, I think that there is Yes, there's probably a rest a restless electorate, and yes, we're coming up on uh midterms in November. Exactly. and the the high price of oil is is potentially going to harm Donald Trump. But this is not a man who's looking to run another term. At least not that we're aware of. It would not be constitutional. So, >> but he could be a lamed up president on the basis of those midterms.

[00:03:51]>> Well, he could be. I mean, he will be anyway. I mean, in the sense he only has two years left. But if you think about if he holds on to the Senate and loses the House, still has the presidency, well then he'll have a minor annoyance from the House, but he'll still have a majority hold on the government, that won't change his calculus very much. But I think the other thing to remember here is that, you know, there is no real hard timeline for the collapse economically of this regime. But let's just say that it's two or three or four or 5 months.

[00:04:20]According to the best estimates of the CIA or the US Treasury or from MI6 or whoever is doing the assessment, he still has some time to do significant damage to this regime before that clock runs out. And I'm not sure that it even does based on the idea that he could still win the Senate. So, I don't see the squeeze as much as some people are putting on him. I think the squeeze is actually somewhat self-imposed because this is a president who sees himself as the prosperity president for all Americans. And that I believe is really what is giving him that sense of urgency. If he can take a deep breath and allow this to play out, I think that there could still be victory on the other side of this without having to drop loads more munitions.

[00:05:04]>> Right. Well, there are a couple of questions that come to mind. What does victory look like? Because when you when you step back and watch how this has unfolded ever since this conflict started, it looks as if there is a resolution that it's not even going to be as good as it was before the conflict started.

[00:05:23]>> Oh, I'm not sure I I would agree with that. I mean, what we have seen actually is is really the dismantling of Iran's defense industrial base. They're having a really hard time producing a lot of the weapons that they wanted to before.

[00:05:35]The regime is the regime is weaker and now we on top of the military weakness and the lack of air defenses it's already very exposed now we have the opportunity to bankrupt this regime now yes they have a handle on the straight of hor >> and that and that needs to be addressed but that does not just the fact that we have a slowdown in the export of oil from this region doesn't mean that we have to panic it means that they've played a move it's now up to the and hopefully America's allies to make a move. We're not seeing a lot of that.

[00:06:09]That actually to me is more concerning that we don't see British, French, German involvement here in putting more pressure on the Islamic Republic.

[00:06:17]>> Well, as you say, that may not change either over the coming uh months for a variety of reasons. I mean, how much pressure is there within the Republican movement for Donald Trump to make this war go away?

[00:06:30]>> Oh, there's definitely pressure. I mean, you have, you know, what I would broadly call the Tucker Carlson wing, uh, of the Republican party. These are isolationists at their core. Um, one could also argue that there's a tinge of anti-semitism, anti-Israel sentiment in there. But you basically get a sense that they're just not interested in any foreign entanglements and that they believe that the lessons learned uh from Iraq or Afghanistan, such as they were, um, that that's that's the guiding principle. But then you also have what I would broadly call the Marco Rubio wing of the Republican party. And these are the interventionists. These are the ones who still believe in good old-fashioned American power. And I think that there is a a bit of an arm wrestling match that's happening here right now. And the Islamic Republic is kind of the test case for where we go from here. I actually think this is highly consequential for world politics moving forward. It will have a direct bearing on Ukraine. it will have a very scary um impact on Taiwan if the isolationists went out. So, I actually think that at the end of the day, we want to see America emerge with a victory, whatever that looks like, against the Islamic Republic, hopefully getting the regime to capitulate, if not to collapse altogether. This, I think, would have uh second order, third or order consequences on American power for years to come. Well, Jonathan Shansa, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, thank you for your view on the Times at 1.