First Official 2026 Senate Map Prediction [May 2026]

本站添加: 2026-05-16

[00:01:21]I'm feeling And we are live. What is up people of the internet? It is me, Real American, back in with a new stream. And that is right. We are live on this beautiful May 12th, 2026. I hope everyone's having a great day. I'm having a great day myself. And we are joined by Mr. Tyrone and Mr. Real Texan Politics.

[00:02:24]>> Yeah. What's up? Others might be joining later, but it's just us right now. We have a very eventful day uh with the South Carolina. We got to talk about the state of the Senate. We got to talk about even Thomas Massie because he has his own scandal. So, uh yeah, but we're finally back with a prediction stream for the Senate. And uh yeah, he's you guys may notice uh yeah, the the stream might look a little bit different now.

[00:02:47]It's um yeah, I'm not trying to toot my own horn, but I like it. So again, if you guys like the new stuff going on, the new style, uh, let me know. Uh, I appreciate all the feedback, so just let me know. But I think most people have liked it so far. So, uh, yeah. All right, enough of that. Before we get into it, guys, don't forget to like, subscribe, share with your friends, and of course, join the channel today. These are all great ways to support the daily content. And if you have any questions or concerns or want to support the channel even further, the best way is sending super chats via the chat. Again, I will read through as much chat as possible, but super chats are the best way to get your questions answered. And we do got a couple super chats. Let's see here. Uh, where is it? American nerd for two. What the f is the South Carolina GOP doing. Now, we have talk about that. We will get to that in a little bit. I actually made a video on that. It's stupid, but we'll get to that. Uh, Jared the American for two.

[00:03:39]You hear about the quartering drama?

[00:03:40]It's crazy. I didn't hear anything about it. No, I I don't really pay attention to that stuff. Uh, Kuff for two. Guys, guys, guys, but principles. Well, it's worse than my principles. Didn't the guy literally say like he wants to give Democrats power?

[00:03:53]>> Didn't the guy literally say that?

[00:03:56]>> He thinks the party is still uh hecking wholesome, Bill Clinton.

[00:03:59]>> Yeah, it it's wild.

[00:04:03]I'm I'm Battlefield for two. The battleground son is like the tattooing sons. Um I wouldn't say that, but um if people think that's what it is, um then we did a good job then. Okay. Yeah, it's totally what it is.

[00:04:16]I don't know. But yeah, so today is the South Carolina prediction night stream.

[00:04:20]We've been I've wanted to do this for a while. We did the House prediction I think last Thursday. Was it >> the South the South Carolina prediction night stream?

[00:04:29]>> Oh gosh. Yeah, the Senate. I meant good lord. But uh yeah, so we are talking with South Carolina. Oh my god. Damn it.

[00:04:36]It's the Senate. We're talking with the Senate today. And it's been a while since we did one of these. So um yeah, here's the map pulled up right here.

[00:04:44]There are 35 states that actually have Senate races this year because some states like Oklahoma, um, Florida, Ohio.

[00:04:50]Is there another one as a special election?

[00:04:54]>> No, >> I think Nebraska.

[00:04:56]>> No, not no Nebraska. They're special. I think two years ago, I thought. Oh, >> okay.

[00:05:01]>> I don't know. But, uh, yeah. So, again, we're doing a prediction night stream.

[00:05:04]Uh, ratings are based on probability. So um safe is like over 90% likely 75 90 leans 6075 tilt below 60 that's kind of what it is. So that's kind of just the basic stuff. Uh President Gilbert Giddy up for five. We need to give power to the Democrats because my principles that's literally what the Senate majority leader said in South Carolina.

[00:05:26]We're not even exaggerating. He said that we cannot be mean to Democrats. We need to protect them. Like what was the exact quote?

[00:05:36]I don't know, but his his last name is Massie, but spelled differently.

[00:05:40]>> Yeah, funny how that works.

[00:05:42]>> Um, and he also said like, oh, the the map at South Carolina is already too gerrymandered. We got to be friendly.

[00:05:48]It's [ __ ] unreal.

[00:05:49]>> He actually said it was the most gerrymandered state in the country, which >> kind of seems to me like he >> It really is true that Democrats win elections in deep red seats with people like Shane Massie.

[00:06:03]>> Yeah, of course it was Massie. What are the freaking odds? But it's just freaking wild that that's our leadership at South Carolina.

[00:06:12]It is just insane. So >> I think it's also just because they love uh Jim Klyber so much.

[00:06:19]>> Yeah. Uh America nerd for two. When is South Carolina primaries they need to learn like Indiana? I actually >> they've been delayed.

[00:06:26]>> Yeah. I don't.

[00:06:26]>> However, I will say I believe their Senate is not up until 2028.

[00:06:30]>> Well, there's some wacky stuff going on in the state senate now. There might be it might happen now. There's been some talks about it. We'll see though. But uh Prince writer for 10 cents a set of stuff. Here's the RC Eternals from May 6th through May 9th. North Carolina D plus4. Ohio R plus4. Iowa R plus 9.

[00:06:47]Texas uh corned plus 10. Paxton plus 5.

[00:06:51]Maine D+1. Georgia D plus 2. South Carolina R plus 11. That seemed about right. If that's reality that seemed about right, but we'll get to that. Uh Spring Bear for two. What are the odds of Cass City winning his primary? Uh, he's not winning that primary.

[00:07:06]>> He's not even going to a runoff.

[00:07:08]>> Yeah, he's done. K Dog for two. There's a new poll with Rogers ahead of Elsad by five. I saw that. We'll get the Michigan is second.

[00:07:15]>> That had El Say I think that also had El Say up in the poll and winning like 80% of the uh >> millennial votes.

[00:07:23]>> I think he's a nominee. I think he's surgeon at the right time. Uh, American nerd for two principles are crap without meaningful victories. Well, according to this guy, you have to give Democrats power because why?

[00:07:37]>> Uh, okay. President Gilbert Giddy up.

[00:07:40]Isn't Arizona going to have a special order Senate race? Probably not.

[00:07:43]>> Yeah. So, that's another question like there might be too funny off of the Mark Kelly stuff's true. I don't think either going to resign.

[00:07:48]>> Oh, go. All right. They are not letting us do the prediction, man. We getting bombarded.

[00:07:53]>> Yeah. But yeah, for Arizona, I think it's to be determined. It depends if Ggo or Kelly resign and that's not going to happen. But >> it would be funny if both were assigned though.

[00:08:01]>> There's a chance though because there are some scandals brewing on those two.

[00:08:04]So, we'll see. Okay, a couple of super chats. We'll get to the prediction. Uh Josh Lander for five. Of course, Shane Massie endorsed Tim Scott for POTUS 2024. Yeah, I'm not surprised.

[00:08:15]>> South Carolina endorses South Carolina.

[00:08:17]>> Yeah, Springbear for two. Principles are for sissies. Well, I mean like you can have principles but actually have good ones. And uh these >> Okay. apparently endorsed Nikki Haley, but okay, whatever. South again, South Carolina endorses South Carolina.

[00:08:32]>> Anyways, let's >> for the actual predictions. So, let's go through the states that we're not going to talk about. Um, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, uh, Delaware, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and I I guess Virginia. Those are the Democratic states I don't even want to bother with. But >> New Mexico, they're not even going to have Republicans. They might there's a right in candidates for the primary. So there's a chance.

[00:08:58]>> Yeah, it's a Yeah, it's a ride in. I don't even I don't even know if they're going to be is going to maybe be a ride in for the general election.

[00:09:03]>> No, no, no. So no, it's >> if he bec if he gets enough votes by New Mexico law, he is the nominee. So he would be on the ballot then. But >> okay, >> it wouldn't really matter. That guy's going to get crushed anyways. Uh Prince is writer for two. Atlas also BS.

[00:09:17]Eternals are D plus five right now. Oh yeah, the Atlas polls is horseshit. Did they have Democrats winning immigration by like 10 points?

[00:09:23]>> Nine.

[00:09:24]>> Close enough. That's horshit.

[00:09:27]>> If any of you believe that [ __ ] poll, you're you're not gonna make it.

[00:09:31]>> Yeah, >> they they have the 2028 election as Marco Rubio versus AOC.

[00:09:37]>> You have something wrong with their poll. If Marco Rubio is pulling ahead, I love Rubio, but dude, he's not beating Vance right now. He's not [ __ ] beating him cuz not enough people know who he is. That's the reality of it.

[00:09:48]Uh Kub for five. Any Republican who believes that there needs to be a strong version of the modern day Democrat party because democracy is just a Democrat of blue R. Yeah.

[00:09:58]>> Yeah. Okay. Let's get through.

[00:10:00]>> I think that's that's probably it for safe Democrats seats. Um I mean maybe Minnesota, but probably >> we'll talk Minnesota because there's some weird stuff going on there. For the red states, I don't think I got to really say much. We got to talk Well, hold on. I got to forgot that one. There we go. Uh Kansas, blah blah blah. all these southern states. Uh, and that seems about right. I Yeah, South Carolina.

[00:10:23]>> Uh, South Florida.

[00:10:25]>> Well, we'll we'll we'll leave that there until we get to that because some people freaking be dumb about that.

[00:10:30]>> I guess Montana, but that might also be one we have to discuss.

[00:10:34]>> Yeah, we're going to discuss 13 of them.

[00:10:35]Most of these are going to be kind of quick. I just want to get kind of the starting map here. So, this is kind of the current map right now that again, not all these states are going to be like uh leaning uh like leaning or whatever, but it's going to be safe some of them.

[00:10:50]But we'll get to it as we go. So, where should we start with? Should we start with Alaska and work counterclockwise or >> Yeah, Alaska. Oh, boy.

[00:10:59]>> So, yeah, Alaska's a weird one. Here's the what I'll say about Alaska right off the bat. When it comes to Alaska polling, most of the time it's [ __ ] You cannot pull the state whatsoever. You just can't. It's one of those states that you cannot pull. There's just too many people in the in the rural parts of the state. You can't contact them. That's the first problem when it comes to predicting Alaska. Second problem is Dan Sullivan's not a weak candidate. Is he super strong? Maybe not. But isn't Marowski backing him too?

[00:11:31]>> Mhm. I think so. Yeah.

[00:11:32]>> Yeah. I will say another thing. I think it's also isn't it pretty hard to campaign especially as an incumbent in Alaska.

[00:11:39]>> Me a little bit. Okay.

[00:11:41]Better. Go fix that. Okay. Sorry. Go ahead.

[00:11:44]>> If it wouldn't it also be pretty difficult to campaign as an incumbent senator in Alaska.

[00:11:48]>> Well, yeah. It's hard to campaign in general in Alaska.

[00:11:51]>> Mhm.

[00:11:52]>> That that's the one thing Alaska the Democrats have going for them. But here's the thing. Patula is a retrieded candidate. I know she barely she lost by three. I know that's a very small defeat, but guys, we've gone over this a million times.

[00:12:05]Retread candidates, especially right after they lost, tend to do far worse because they don't got the same political capital. The the shine is worn off. I still think Republicans are favored in Alaska. Um I I just don't see how people would say it's a lean Democrat like Vote Hub is saying now or whatever, but I think right now um it starts off likely. I think right now >> I'd probably go lean.

[00:12:33]>> It's either lean or likely. I think you know what? Let's go lean.

[00:12:37]>> We're going probabilitywise. I I think I don't think I I don't want to underestimate I don't want to underestimate Pelah. I also don't think we should be overestimating her like she is cuz I think they have her like a they have her like a 65% chance of winning or something.

[00:12:54]>> Dan Svin's been there for a while. He's been there for a while. He's not the strongest candidate, but he freaking has Mowski backing him. I know Mowsky's endorsement doesn't mean much, but guys, if she if he's going to Marcowski's backing I I just don't see if any other Republic is going to go for Pollola in that race, just honestly. But we'll see, I guess.

[00:13:14]>> Final prediction on if Massie loses from Asana is >> I saw an actual Cena for two. Final prediction if Massie loses. I think Massie goes down.

[00:13:23]>> I mean, that'll we'll I mean, that primary is next week.

[00:13:26]I think it's going down. Uh I don't think he's going to win, but I guess anything can happen. Well, now Brit Barrison and Robert Bar saying it's go Democrat, but we'll get to that.

[00:13:35]>> And American Nerd for two for two.

[00:13:38]>> Yeah, for two. I still think Alaska House of 22 is a fluke. I still would argue that because she won be in part because everybody hated each other.

[00:13:46]Yeah, Sarah Pal was a dumb [ __ ] and said, "Yeah, I I'm going to vote for her over a big itch." And um yeah, how did that go? and he she barely lost. So anyways, enough of that.

[00:14:00]>> Montana >> Montana.

[00:14:02]So when when it comes to Montana, who who are Democrats even running?

[00:14:07]>> Uh I don't know.

[00:14:10]>> I the way Republicans did it, they they they prevented Tester from running again, which is hilarious. But >> give me one sec. Uh are there primaries tonight from Robin Serest? Uh yes, in Nebraska, West Virginia, those are mainly those two. I think North Carolina has like local >> there's some runoff going on tonight.

[00:14:25]North Carolina, but the Nebraska one, the only competitive one is the Nebraska second. The Democrats has a [ __ ] show.

[00:14:31]So, >> I think Dems also had like a prim an actual primary going on for Senate.

[00:14:37]And I think that's between one candidate for uh there's one Democrat candidate that I think is going to drop out if he or she wins the nomination. And there's another one that was down the ballot if he or she wins. I don't remember. Yeah, it's a weird situation where it's like they got some guy that's totally not a Democrat running, but we'll get to that.

[00:14:55]Uh K Cup for two, American Nerd for two for two uh 42 42. Yeah, that's real.

[00:15:02]>> When it comes to Montana >> Montana, I'm going safe. I'm not playing this [ __ ] game.

[00:15:07]>> It is safe for publicans.

[00:15:08]>> I'm not playing this [ __ ] where guys, it's there's a chance I guess they can overperform, but if John Tester couldn't win re-election, come on. he's ever running again. What these people say like it's lean R or whatever because Tester won 10 years ago. Who cares?

[00:15:24]>> I mean, well, I would say the question is going to be who gets second place, the independent or the Democrat. It'll probably be the independ It'll probably be the independent because he actually has John Tester support.

[00:15:34]>> Oh, he does.

[00:15:34]>> And a for and a former Republican governor of Montana, although he served in the 90s, but >> yeah. So, I mean, like it might get closer, but if there's a Democrat running, it's no, not going to happen.

[00:15:45]All right, now we get to a very weird one. Nebraska.

[00:15:49]>> Same. It's the same thing going on as Montana.

[00:15:52]>> Yeah. The same [ __ ] Same [ __ ] Different states.

[00:15:55]>> But we But we will find But we will find out tonight if there is actually going to be a Democrat.

[00:16:00]>> Yeah.

[00:16:00]>> In the on the general election.

[00:16:02]>> I'm going to say just I'm going to say likely are for now. Um I I don't see Osborne winning. Again, retread candidates don't tend to do well the second time around usually, especially right after.

[00:16:14]But I guess anything could happen. Too many determined the Democrats even on the tickets.

[00:16:18]>> Okay, I see what happened. So what I Okay, so let me explain with Nebraska.

[00:16:24]I'm just looking it up now. So there are two candidates for Senate. There are Cindy Burbank and William Forbes. And I need you to remember these. Cindy Burbank will drop out of the race if she wins the primary tonight.

[00:16:38]>> Okay? because she wanted she wanted to drop out the and but I think the secretary of or no >> they try to kick her off the they try to get her off the ballot. I know >> they try to get off the ballot but >> but either way she will drop out if uh she will actually drop out if she wins the nomination which is also why she's endorsed by Dan Osborne and the Nebraska Democratic Party. And then the other candidate is William Forbes who's just a pastor. Um, and I think he'll stay on the ballot if uh >> Yeah, he's the totally real Democrat.

[00:17:10]Yeah, totally.

[00:17:12]>> But >> I think he's like a pro-life Democrat or something.

[00:17:15]>> I'm pretty sure he's definitely like an OP from the GOP. There's no [ __ ] way he isn't. But >> but the thing with him is that he will stay on the ballot. Um, probably. And it's a big deal because >> which yeah that would be good because then you can get a lot of low info voters in like inner city Omaha voting for him and those are obviously votes that would be taken away from Osborne >> because people don't understand like even in Maine with um with K with Angus Kane back in 2018 the Democrats are running buddy the Democrats took like 12% of the vote or whatever it was. So these voters they they don't know this [ __ ] that's why it's a big deal but I am Battlefield for two. Remember Rickett is a stronger candidate than Fischer. That is true. That's why I'm saying likely borderline stiff. I'm just waiting the primary before I say either. Uh Prince writer for five. People don't realize 2018 um which is when these seats were a blast was D plus8 and GOP expanded the Senate and that was with Democrats winning West Virginia, Missouri and Ohio. Oh no, they did not.

[00:18:11]>> Ryer, not a blast. I don't know why I said that.

[00:18:14]>> Yeah, they they it was up in 2018 and 24. But yeah, if they couldn't win at 24 with Tester and Brown as incumbents, like you think it's going to happen this time, I guess. But anyways, all right.

[00:18:27]So, we got Nebraska. I would say borderline safe, but I guess we'll talk about that later. Uh Minnesota, I think safe. I'm not going to play this game.

[00:18:35]>> I'm gonna be honest. I think a min If you're putting Minnesota is safe, I put Nebraska is safe, too.

[00:18:41]>> Yeah, I think it's fair. Yeah, why not?

[00:18:44]Because when it comes to Nebraska, guys, if Fischer beat Osborne, if Fischer's a far shittier candidate, plus is lazy.

[00:18:51]>> Yeah, it isn't Pete Rick's pretty liked in Nebraska, too.

[00:18:55]>> So, I think, >> yeah, I don't think he's going to lose.

[00:19:00]We'll see, I guess. But >> the thing with Minnesota, full thankfully Royce White's not going to be the nominee. It's going to be Michelle Toya, who I think is a decent candidate.

[00:19:08]>> Yeah, she has name recognition behind her this time.

[00:19:10]>> Dems are more than likely going to nominate. Actually, I think uh you're actually going to see both Flanigan and Craig become senators. Flanigan will win the election. Uh well, she'll win the primary and then she'll win the general and then I think AG Craig may get appointed by Clolobashar.

[00:19:24]>> Oh, that's right. Clolobashar's running.

[00:19:26]That's right. Yeah, I forgot about that.

[00:19:28]>> For governor. Yeah. But um >> I could see that.

[00:19:31]>> But yeah, Flanigan not a great candidate for Senate. I mean, she's a massive like far-left.

[00:19:39]>> Oh, yeah, she is. Um, but I think I mean, yeah, we have a decent, you know, candidate on our side.

[00:19:48]So, I mean, >> I'm going to say safe Democrat right now.

[00:19:53]>> I I think it's still safe. It's probability wise.

[00:19:57]>> Yeah. All right. Iowa. Oh, here we go.

[00:20:00]Go with Iowa. Freaking damn it. Every time like >> I would put probably as likely Republican.

[00:20:06]>> I'm not doing this. I'm not doing this again, guys. this lean Democrat. What?

[00:20:10]Why is it every time with Iowa?

[00:20:14]Like they have a competitive primary on the Democrat side for crying out loud.

[00:20:19]The [ __ ] show. On top of that, guys, like I was not a D plus five state anymore. It's not an R plus two. It's a freaking R plus 15 state right now. And voter registration has gotten more Republican. So I don't know how that works.

[00:20:35]Yeah, maybe on maybe in the governor race you see Rob Sand.

[00:20:38]>> Well, Rob Sandable, but >> yeah, but Democrat but yeah, for this race you have an incoming congressman or congresswoman, excuse me, versus Yeah.

[00:20:48]And you got two Democrats. TK will probably win the primary from what it's looking like. But um >> although that's going to be a pretty that's going to be a nailbiter probably.

[00:20:59]Um I think likely Republican works for Iowa for Senate.

[00:21:04]All right. Uh, Prince Rider for Prince Ryder for two. I've heard the governor may endorse Collins in Maine.

[00:21:11]Really, Jan?

[00:21:15]>> Uh, we'll see.

[00:21:17]>> That'll be kind of funny. I don't know if that helps her though, honestly.

[00:21:21]Maybe the Maybe because it looks bipartisan, but she's freaking hated up there. I don't know if that's the best idea to accept that endorsement, but I don't know if that's real. That'd be kind of funny, though. That is a reliable source saying that though, so we'll see, I guess.

[00:21:34]>> All right, let's go to the great state of Michigan.

[00:21:36]>> America not for 10.

[00:21:37]>> Sorry, America.

[00:21:38]>> Uh, Congresswoman APL says she's considering a future bid to chair of the RNC, saying, "I'll be honest with you.

[00:21:43]I'm considering after Joe Gruers is done maybe putting my hand in the the chair for the RNC." I mean, she's fine. I don't think she'd be the best RNC chair, honestly. Just get Wetley back in there.

[00:21:54]But >> I don't know why.

[00:21:56]>> Yeah, Luna.

[00:21:56]>> Yeah. Why would she want to give up her seat belt? I don't know. I think she's probably like down the line maybe.

[00:22:02]>> Unless maybe she's like sick of Congress.

[00:22:04]>> I would be too honestly. But >> uh President Goober getting up for five rap. You don't understand. I was getting going Democrat because it's better than Republican. Didn't you know that smiley face? Yeah, it's going to go Democrat because reasons. All right, let's get to the two that are actually competitive because there are ones so far have not been that interesting. Let's go Michigan. This is a tricky one.

[00:22:27]>> This is real. This is probably like the big question mark here because it entirely depends on who Democrats nominate.

[00:22:34]>> I would argue at this point like Rogers is in a good position no matter what.

[00:22:38]>> I think Rogers is in a good positioning regardless of who the candidate is going to be. However, Elsa is going to make it the most easiest candidate to run against and he's the one who's leading in the Democrat poll. So >> the last poll we got >> I would say let's assume it's Rogers versus say and I'd say in that case uh I mean I'm just going to say it. I think it's going to be likely R.

[00:23:04]>> I'm not going that far. That >> I mean I mean I mean likelihood. Are we still no [ __ ] percentages or are we doing actual lean likely?

[00:23:14]>> We're doing we're doing probability.

[00:23:17]I would say lean to likely probability.

[00:23:20]I think Rogers is the favorite and that gap is only going to expound on opponent itself as he continues to gain in the polls and when t come time for August, September, October, he's going to drop a [ __ ] ton of money in Michigan.

[00:23:38]>> So here's what I'll say.

[00:23:39]>> Let's well let let's talk about the poll that we just got.

[00:23:42]>> Yeah, it was from um which group was that from?

[00:23:45]>> I think it was was it Mitchell? I think it was Mitchell the other one. He was one of the two big >> Glen Gariff although that was from last month when it was conducted.

[00:23:54]>> Yeah. So that's the one concern is a bit older but Vaz Rogers up by like two to five points statewide.

[00:24:00]>> So what we have is so Mitchell has Abdul El Say up nine with Haley Stevens actually in second place 17.

[00:24:10]>> Really?

[00:24:11]>> Yeah. It's Abdul. It's Celsius at 27, Haley Stevens at 18, Mcmorro at 17, 38% undecided. Glenn Gariff had Haley Stevens, I believe, winning the poll with Abdul Aliad in second place.

[00:24:25]Emerson from earlier in April had Abdul Aliad and Mallerie McMoral tied in 24.

[00:24:31]So, it's a it's cluster [ __ ] of a poll uh primary what we have. Uh, but what I will also point out is the aggregate polls. 270 to win, race to the White House, and Real Clear Politics.

[00:24:44]270 to win is probably the last one that's been updated and race to the White House apparently. Okay. All all of them have Abdullah Sayad up. So, I think as it stands right now, and also Abdullah say is like I think one of those polls there's either Mitchell or Glenn Gariff had him at like 80% with Gen Z millennials combined.

[00:25:04]>> Yes. I want to say this. I think right now I want to wait and see and this might piss some people off, but I'm going to say Tilt Democrat for now. I I just want to see who the nominee is first because it's one of those things where yes, Elsad is the front runner right now, but um I'm hearing you have some scandals coming up and they're already starting to >> Yeah, we'll have to see. I think the the Dem establishment is still probably holding out on hope for Haley Stevens for McMurro. And in my opinion, I do think Rogers would probably lose to both of them. But if it's Abdul Alad, he's got a great he's in a great position.

[00:25:36]>> Yeah, if it's Assad, I think Rogers wins. I just think right now they're not gonna let him win the primary. I I just I think they're gonna find a way to unite the either Stevens or Mororrow, but we'll see. I guess there is a a possibility they get Elsa the nomination, which would be hilarious, but uh cake out for five. By the way, in Minnesota, pray for my bud sister. She joined the proud office of Wall's office as a legal intern. Forget thrown under.

[00:26:01]Um, find back the bus over her. What?

[00:26:05]>> I don't I don't Jesse, what the [ __ ] are you talking about?

[00:26:08]>> Uh, she joined the proud office of Wall's office as a legal intern. Forgot thrown under um fack the bus.

[00:26:16]>> Thank Thank you for the $5. Let's move on to Let's move on to Ohio.

[00:26:20]>> Ohio. Um, I'm going to lead our [ __ ] piece of >> That's fair. Yeah, >> I'm not I'm not doing this [ __ ] guys.

[00:26:25]lean guys the there are top unions you can anybody can look this up right now there are top unions that endorsed Brown not even two years ago in 2024 all these top unions were backing Brown they're voting for Houston now they're backing him right now all these top unions in Ohio that alone should make people wonder and plus Bernie Moreno we love the guy he's not a strong candidate he was not a strong candidate whatsoever I know Trump was on the ballot he still won by like three to four points points.

[00:26:56]Now Houston is the incumbent. Brown isn't. He lost the incumbency. All these top unions are not backing him now.

[00:27:05]It's It might be closer because of a midterm. I I get that. I think right now >> and Brown probably does still have that slight crossover support.

[00:27:13]>> It does a little bit, but >> nowhere near as much as he had, and we saw that with the 2024 Senate election.

[00:27:21]Again, if these top unions are like not backing him, he's in deep trouble. And again, I will say this, retread candidates don't perform good at all, especially incumbents. They never do good.

[00:27:34]>> If Brown wins re-election, and I do think this is the unlikely one, but if Brown does win re-election, it's not going to be because Brown is a strong candidate. I'm going to say it. It's going to be because Vivic Ramaswami is an incredibly weak terrible gubernatorial candidate and it could have a similar effect on their governor senator combined race as Mastriano did on Oz.

[00:27:56]>> I could see that that even then I still think Ramas Swami wins. So I I don't like that. I think he still pulls it off barely.

[00:28:05]Um American for two if Brown lost to a call a car salesman he screwed in 26.

[00:28:10]Well not just that I mean he all these top groups are not backing him now.

[00:28:14]Nobody's talking about this. All these top unions, look at the wiki page. These same groups voted for or backed um Brown just two years ago. Now they're back in Houston. That's not a good sign for him.

[00:28:26]And can anyone name a time the last time an incumbent senator lost reelection and came back two years later and won?

[00:28:35]>> No.

[00:28:36]>> Has it ever has it even ever happened?

[00:28:39]>> It's never happened. top of my head, I can't think of anybody because it's so [ __ ] very Everybody knows incumbents that lose, the general, not just a primary, the general tend to not win ever again. They tend to just retire.

[00:28:53]We'll see, I guess. But, uh, Kuffy, my buddy sister joined Wall's office, the legal intern. I was saying they aren't just going to throw her under the bus. They're going to back it over her. Oh, okay. I get it.

[00:29:05]>> Apparently, it has happened before.

[00:29:07]Okay. I think uh >> I get I guess >> it was Slade Gordon Washington. But >> what year?

[00:29:16]>> 1986 and 88.

[00:29:18]>> Yeah. Okay. Yeah. When you get to the 80s and [ __ ] >> 40 years ago. Wow.

[00:29:23]>> Freaking Washington.

[00:29:25]>> Like I was going to say, it probably has happened before, but a very long time ago.

[00:29:29]>> Yeah. It's like once 40 years like Okay.

[00:29:32]And that was back when Washington was more competitive. I I get that. But still >> I know he's sorry about it. Sorry you interrupted.

[00:29:39]>> No, it's fine. No, he's going to know that. It's like if it's been 40 years.

[00:29:43]Yeah. No. President Gilbert Giddy up for five. God help us for Ohio specifically for especially for the governor race.

[00:29:49]Indian ransom. Yeah.

[00:29:53]Uh Diane Feinstein lost California governor then won a Senate two years later. Those are two different races for sleep.

[00:29:59]We're not we're talking about the same seat. We're not talking about you ran for governor and lost and then you ran for Senate and won. Like no. That doesn't happen. Like that's what we're talking about. We're talking about Senate, you lost and then you ran for Senate again, you lose. Eric for five.

[00:30:12]Brown is a fool for not running for governor instead. He'll have a better chance of beating Vacant becoming governor. He would have easily won against Rahm Swami. He would have crushed Ramas Swami.

[00:30:22]I don't think it would have been close, but anyways, enough of that. Now we go to the Northeast New Hampshire.

[00:30:34]Good question.

[00:30:36]>> Yeah, we got about New Hampshire.

[00:30:38]>> Uh >> I I I admittedly have not been following New Hampshire at all. Who are options?

[00:30:45]>> And Chris Papampis.

[00:30:46]>> It's going to be okay. Look, I don't know [ __ ] about New Hampshire politics other than the one time I was on that video for like the midterms in 22. And even I know that Cenounu is enough of a household name to just win that seat outright.

[00:31:01]The problem is this is the brother and again he is kind of a retread candidate.

[00:31:06]Not really. He was in the Senate like 20 years ago. So >> he lost in like 200.

[00:31:11]>> He barely lost too. He lost by like a freaking half a point.

[00:31:16]>> The fate of New Hampshire is >> I I don't I don't think that losing 20 years ago by half a point is enough to qualify you as a meaningful retread.

[00:31:27]>> I think he lost he lost by six, but whatever. But compared to like the the national electorate, it was it was like he overperformed still. But >> Oh, yeah. Because I'm pretty sure Obama won New Hampshire by double digits.

[00:31:38]>> Yeah, he I thought he went by like 15 points or whatever.

[00:31:42]>> But anyways, um I'd say Papis is favored, but it's probably Tilt or Lind D.

[00:31:47]>> I'm going to say Lind D right now just just for the simple fact that I want to see and this big thing with everything going on, we got to see the funding like where Republicans are actually spending the money. They're going to spend a lot of money in New Hampshire. That's the early reporting, but I want to see it first. And the point have been all over the place in New Hampshire. Again, New Hampshire is one of those states that you can't pull worth a damn. You just can't pull the state.

[00:32:07]>> I think this would be a firmly likely D state if it wasn't for John Coo-Noo running.

[00:32:12]>> Yeah, I agree. It'd be likely borderline safe. John Coo the the last name alone makes it a big deal.

[00:32:18]>> Actually saves us.

[00:32:20]>> Yeah. All right.

[00:32:21]>> Then we get to probably the most controversial one here. Maine.

[00:32:24]>> Maine.

[00:32:26]I'm gonna just give my prediction till Dar but >> I want to hear my what I'm hearing is according to Mark Halper and there is some big scandals um relating to >> uh platin >> now we got now of course this comes with the question of will this these scandals be released and what are the scandals um >> I've heard that I'm not I I don't know for sure I've heard something relates to some kind of abuse thing that's something I've heard. So >> the dude with a [ __ ] swastika tattoo would is abusive. Imagine my [ __ ] >> I don't know. Like again that's a rumor I heard. I I cannot confirm that. Let me be clear about that. It's just something related to abuse.

[00:33:09]>> Uh let me be clear.

[00:33:10]>> I'm just making sure.

[00:33:11]>> I'm going to be honest as tilt D. But I think if these scandals get released and depending on how bad these are, that'll definitely shake up the race. I'm just say Tiltar. I think Sa Collins it'll be her closest race yet. I think she barely holds on.

[00:33:31]>> I think so. I think I I don't think Platner is going to be strong enough, especially if [ __ ] comes out about Platner. Collins has proven herself time and time again. She's a strong senator who was able to take a beating.

[00:33:42]Um, I do think that if it were to be done today, as it will be in the future, I do think Collins is going to beat out Platner. But I do hope it is close enough to convince her to retire and this be her last time running.

[00:33:59]>> I heard she retire anyways. I don't >> It was probably going to be her last term anyways. Just one her age and two polarization. She h plus she does have some health issues but >> well she's kind of had the shakes for a while but >> yeah but it's like you can know you notice it's getting worse now but SHE'S STILL LIKE IN SHAPE to like be in the Senate or whatever but you know another Feinstein where it's like she's just wheeled around a wheelchair and you you don't know who's actually voted for her but anyways >> or Beth Van Dwayne >> oh gosh yeah I know what you're talking about. Anyways, >> North Carolina.

[00:34:34]>> This is another Okay, so this is a weird one.

[00:34:37]Every conventional thing would tell you Wley's gonna win or not lose, I should say, that Wley's going to lose and that Cooper's going to win. At the same time, people got to understand Cooper, while he is a strong candidate, he is not this electoral juggernaut. That's >> he's also not the incumbent anymore. And if you go look, there is a difference between candidates who are the incumbents in running for parallel or superior offices versus candidates who have been out of office even for a couple years and are running for different or parallel offices. He's not going to have nearly as much strength. I do think if it were to be held today, then Cooper would just barely I'm talking like probably the closest race of the of the cycle. I do think that Cooper would beat out Watley, but Watley is nowhere near as weak of a candidate as people think he is. Roy Cooper is nowhere near as strong of a candidate as people think he is. And as North Carolina continues to get more and more polarized, especially as Josh Stein continues to do what Josh Stein does, and a lot of people continue to wake up to what Roy Cooper did as governor.

[00:35:42]Wetley, if he has the right Oh, hey, that's the super sample rock. Sorry, I'm playing Taylor. If Wetley has the funding behind him and the right messaging, which being realistic is not hard at all to do against Roy Cooper of all people with what the [ __ ] he's done.

[00:35:59]I do think that Watley can win by a substantially larger margin than what he's losing by.

[00:36:06]>> I'm going to say this. I think it's right now lean Democrats. My current take Lena Til right now. Sorry.

[00:36:17]Go ahead.

[00:36:20]You >> We have 30 minutes left in the mission.

[00:36:22]Why is someone calling the extraction vehicle? What the [ __ ] >> Thank you.

[00:36:27]>> But yeah, so North Carolina, here's my reasoning. I I made a whole point about this. Like, he's still not cracking 50% of your polls. He's still not cracking 50. No matter what happens, he's not cracking 50. But at the same time, he still has a large enough lead where he could say even with a fundraising advantage for the GOP and but with it being a more Democrat environment, you have to assume that's enough for Cooper to win. He still had the name recognition. He still is a [ __ ] fake moderate because it didn't do anything.

[00:36:55]He really couldn't.

[00:36:56]>> I mean, Cooper hit 50 on a couple of polls, but those are but it was like exactly 50.

[00:37:02]>> Yeah. And like that's the issue for >> I think right now he's undeniably favored, but I think yeah, the polls will could probably narrow as it gets closer. There is also a Green Party candidate running.

[00:37:15]>> That's true. The schizophrenic. That's right.

[00:37:17]>> I mean, Wikip I mean Wikipedia says he got disqualified. I don't know what that is all about, but that's the guy that got his arm broken by Tim Sheihi and he got endorsed by track AP pack because, you know, genocide and whatever. Um, so he could probably take a good amount of votes from like places like Durham or Chapel Hill or Raleigh, you know, big college towns with a lot of young voters, especially like hardcore progressives. Now, I I again, I think Cooper still wins at the end of the day, probably maybe two to four points, but I think I mean, maybe he'd win by a little more if it was held today, but I think that's just because Watley hasn't really been the strongest campaigner so far.

[00:37:55]>> We'll see though. All right, >> this is going to be an extremely expensive Senate race uh on both ends.

[00:38:02]>> Tester's done for has been a member for 29 months. All this with RCP at D plus 6. So now I'm sorry, but cope.

[00:38:09]>> Well, again, my prediction is based off of D plus4 D plus 5 environment. So you can't really say this really in cope where it's like, okay, D plus sorry North Carolina is actually safety.

[00:38:19]>> Yeah, it's safety. I'm saying lean Democrat. It can still go. And people understand like I I have a whole video plan on this. people understand like I don't think the national wave thing is going to happen again at least for a long time. I think we're to see like we saw in 22 more of a regional wave like a 22 where do we see the wave the red wave at?

[00:38:38]>> Uh well actually it will be a wave this year because Atlas Intel the greatest poll of all time as it is a D plus 15 national environment. Uh, but like again, I think what's going to happen it's I'm not saying it's a full-on reversal of 22, but it's be similar where okay, yeah, Democrats probably have a wave here in like New Mexico, Colorado, New York, New Jersey, California. That's true, but at the same time, I don't think you're going to see this wave translate as much as say in North Carolina or Florida or Georgia.

[00:39:06]That's what I'm trying to get at. I still think it's going to happen, of course. I just don't think it's as it's be as like good for Democrats as some people think it's going to be. I could be wrong about that, but again, I think it happened. Well, I'm assuming a D plus four or five electorate. So, anyways, >> uh Georgia, I'd also go lean D as of now.

[00:39:28]>> Lean D. I I I will keep saying this. I think the guy down there ass off the weak candidates or weaker than people say he is.

[00:39:34]>> I will also say Republicans have a very divided primary problem. more than likely gonna go to a runoff. Actually, I think a runoff's basically guarantee.

[00:39:42]>> It's a guarantee. The only way is somebody drops out, >> which too late for that now. Early voting's already I think ended actually or might still be going.

[00:39:51]>> Oh jeez. Uh yeah, I doubt it, but we'll see. We just have zero evidence for this. At about D plus 10 should have midterm turnout statewide elections. The contrary, uh no, those states did not have midterm style turnouts. And Tennessee did not have a statewide election. They had a congressional race.

[00:40:07]New Jersey did not stay wide. Yeah, the these are just special elections or offear elections. You're talking about completely different set of circumstances, >> but I get what you're saying, but even D plus 10 across the board, it's it would make things a lot more difficult for the GOP. It would make states like Ohio more competitive. I still think they barely hold on if the D plus 10 shift. I guess we'll see. But anyways, we'll see. I guess right now I'm saying D+4, D plus 5, but whatever. special elections. I guess we're going down that rabbit hole again, but whatever.

[00:40:41]Okay. Florida >> safar.

[00:40:44]>> I'm saying likely just a plebs.

[00:40:48]>> Who is the Dems? Alex. Alex Vinman. No.

[00:40:51]>> Yeah, Vin. Yeah, fair enough. Yeah, if it's I forgot, but it is safe. I don't give a [ __ ] >> Florida's it's what it's like R plus a million in terms of registration.

[00:41:01]>> Yeah, it's safe R.

[00:41:03]>> It is the safe R. It's going to be a double- digit victory probably.

[00:41:08]Worst case, even the worst case scenario is like maybe just barely under single digits or like barely high single digits maybe. I don't know. Uh, President Gilbert getting up for 10. Don't you think it's weird that Democrats will see the opposite election results just like Republicans did under Biden? Honestly, sometimes I think I'm experiencing political dja vu. Yeah, maybe.

[00:41:30]>> Okay, so yeah, >> now we go to Texas. And yeah, now we have Texas. Texas.

[00:41:34]>> Texas. Yeah.

[00:41:35]>> We're saving the best for last here.

[00:41:37]>> Boo. I'm kidding.

[00:41:38]>> Well, this is cheese head.

[00:41:41]>> I mean, this is going to be about as big of a [ __ ] show is like Georgia or North Carolina.

[00:41:46]>> I'm going to just say it. I think likely are right now.

[00:41:50]>> Yeah. Paxton likely are versus Terico.

[00:41:52]So true.

[00:41:55]>> Yeah. I mean, honestly, I think both Cornin and Paxton would probably win by pretty similar margins. I just I think they both kind of have their respective strengths and weaknesses.

[00:42:05]Maybe I mean Cornin may do somewhat better with Unity, but >> I I don't care if does somewhat better.

[00:42:13]Paxton needs to win because he's better on policy and I'm stick >> Yeah, obviously.

[00:42:19]>> I'm not saying you're I know I I know you voted for I know you voted for Abbott. No, you not Abbott. [ __ ] Uh, Paxton, >> I guess I know. No, no, no. I'm saying I know you're voting for I know you're voting for Pax. I know you voted for Hunt. I know you're going to be voting for Paxton.

[00:42:36]>> Yeah.

[00:42:36]>> I don't know. It's either lean or likely. Uh, >> it's likely, dude. There's no way a Democrat is going to be >> Yeah, likely. Why not?

[00:42:44]>> I would. No, I mean, personally, I think it's going to be Safar.

[00:42:50]>> I guess >> I will say this about Tyler Rico. It seems like he's I mean I know he's bullshitting, but he is running a like pro oil and gas campaign.

[00:43:00]>> Yeah, I'm sure he's real about that. I'm sure of it.

[00:43:05]>> So, it's like he's kind of trying to take cues from Betto 2018. I think he also came out in support of suspending the gas tax.

[00:43:13]>> He's full of [ __ ] He is so full of [ __ ] >> Which Trump also supports and I think Paxton does too. Cornin doesn't at least maybe it'll change because you know by the way you see what Cornin's doing. He wants to rename a highway after Trump.

[00:43:30]>> Yeah, he's desperate for get the endorsement.

[00:43:32]>> Yeah, he's definitely desperate.

[00:43:33]>> He's not getting the endorsement after retweeting Republicans for Trump. He >> Republicans against Trump. Yeah.

[00:43:39]>> Or Republicans. Yeah, Republicans against Trump.

[00:43:42]>> I don't get why why' he do that?

[00:43:45]>> Cuz his staffers are [ __ ] >> I guess that's fair. Um, >> also also I'm pretty sure one of his like campaign surrogates is like this fat Disney adult.

[00:43:54]>> Hey yo, hold up. D Santis is coming out against Byron Donald's. What the [ __ ] >> Wait, what?

[00:44:00]>> Well, I'm pretty sure he was going to always support Jay Collins, but >> what? Uh, I'm Battlefield for five. The only grievance I have with this is Michigan, which I personally believe is Tilt Dar. Roger is a very strong candidate and leading the polling. I just want to wait and see on the primary first before we really see that. So yeah, this is kind of the current prediction. I would say Republicans I think are 52 roughly. Um again probability base that that means like likely is like 75 90% leans 60 75% >> I disagree.

[00:44:32]>> Yeah >> actually you know actually yeah I just straight up disagree on Massachusetts or not Massachusetts >> Massachusetts >> New Hampshire. Sorry. Sorry I dis I Yeah. No, we're winning Massachusetts by 20. Welcome back.

[00:44:46]Welcome back, Charlie Baker.

[00:44:48]>> So true. But yeah, no, we're I don't think we're going to be losing I I don't think we're losing Michigan or New Hampshire. Personally, >> I think right now just to be determined I I want to see the actual environment.

[00:44:59]>> So I'm looking right now if I were to do this map and I'm just going to say if I were to do this map, I would put Texas at Safe Red. I would put Georgia.

[00:45:10]Actually, I agree. I think Georgia is good where it is. I think North Carolina would be lean. I think Ohio would be >> or sorry till I think [ __ ] you. Now you're tripping me up. Yes, I just said Georgia is fine at lean D.

[00:45:25]>> You said North Carolina is like lean D.

[00:45:26]It is already lean D.

[00:45:28]>> Okay, hold on. Sorry. Hold on. Wait. Let me give a sip of my [ __ ] sweet tea.

[00:45:32]I'm losing my mind.

[00:45:32]>> Oh my god.

[00:45:33]>> Okay.

[00:45:34]>> Okay. I would say Texas would be safe red. Georgia is fine as it is. I would say North Carolina at tilt D. I would say Michigan at a I would say Michigan is the most pure battleground state right now of everything. I know I just said I would put it at tilt R, but I do think that it is a true battleground neutral state right now of all other states. I would say New Hampshire is tilt R and I think everything else is fine. Um I would move Ohio to likely R potentially.

[00:46:09]Uh, President Gilbert Giddy up for five.

[00:46:11]Tell Rico's being pro oil and gas. Would that hurt him with Democrats of Texas?

[00:46:14]Yeah, that's a good point. Would that hurt him?

[00:46:16]>> No. No. I mean, it didn't hurt BTO.

[00:46:19]>> No, it did not. It did not hurt Boto.

[00:46:22]>> I still think like to Rico's biggest problem is black voters not going to vote for him. At least not going to turn out, I should say.

[00:46:28]>> No, they're absolutely not going to turn out for him.

[00:46:31]>> That's his problem. If he doesn't get these voters out to vote, he's [ __ ] So, I mean, like again that that we were saying that back in the primary. It's like look look at places like Houston and Dallas. I know that's Crockett's home turf, but guys, he needs black voters to win in Texas. Yeah, he's still going to win them by like 95 points.

[00:46:50]Well, you guys see the Alex Intel poll where it's like D plus 60 for black voters.

[00:46:55]>> Yeah, it's not >> [ __ ] [ __ ] [ __ ] war. If we're getting 30% of black voters, we're having a red tsunami. I'm I'm so sick of this [ __ ] But >> whatever.

[00:47:06]>> Many such cases.

[00:47:08]>> Yeah.

[00:47:08]>> There's many such cases where rap is sick of this [ __ ] That is very true.

[00:47:12]>> Many such cases. Yes.

[00:47:14]>> Yeah.

[00:47:14]>> Speaking of div, by the way, speaking of uh very uh uh how do I say this?

[00:47:20]Divisive primaries or nasty primaries in Texas. Uh obviously, yeah, the Senate primary is nasty, but the attorney general primary that's getting [ __ ] show in a half. What the hell's going on down there? Pick somebody already. What are you guys doing?

[00:47:34]>> Oh, it's basically just uh Yeah. Well, yeah. People think uh Chip Roy People hate Chip Roy because they think he's a rhino.

[00:47:41]>> He's a rhino.

[00:47:42]>> People hate Maze Middleton because they think he's a rhino. Uh >> are you Why is everybody a rhino now?

[00:47:48]>> They think they're fighting. Okay.

[00:47:50]They're basically fighting over like who's the real rhino, who's the uh who's uh the like most pro-Islam or or something. I don't know.

[00:48:00]>> It's >> they're they're sparring over Islam and Ryan.

[00:48:03]>> Just drop out. This is stupid.

[00:48:05]>> I like both of them. I'm probably going to vote Maize Middleton, but I I mean I'm fine with Chip Roy.

[00:48:11]>> All right. Tristan for five. Democrats don't care about climate change anymore.

[00:48:14]They will move down to Gaza/Palis.

[00:48:16]That's actually a good point. They don't care about climate change now. They realized, oh, that's a losing issue, man. Who would have thought saying you can't have cheap um energy and that's unpopular? Wow. Who would have thought that was gonna happen? H But guys, according to like AOC, the Green New Deal is super popular. Like 90% of people backs.

[00:48:36]>> Yeah, that's why she's leading the primary.

[00:48:38]>> Alice in Should we just talk about Alice Intel poll now?

[00:48:42]>> Yeah.

[00:48:42]>> Oh my gosh, I can't believe >> I don't even know if I could see a scenario on AOC winning a primary. I mean, maybe unless there's like a whole bunch of I I guess if the establishment actually is as divided as they are and nobody drops. Okay, maybe if if there's a bunch of establishment candidates and nobody drops out during the entire stretch of the primary, which is not which is not going to happen. But if that's if that's the case, >> they're going to force somebody to drop out.

[00:49:08]>> Maybe a then like Yeah. Okay. If if if my scenario is the case, maybe AOC could pull it out of our ass.

[00:49:15]They got a [ __ ] clber to convince everybody to drop out for [ __ ] Biden.

[00:49:19]You're telling me they can't do the same for like Newsome. Seriously?

[00:49:22]>> Yeah. I mean, I don't I don't even know what state AOC would win outside of like maybe Washington, Oregon, Colorado.

[00:49:30]>> Hear me out. West Virginia.

[00:49:33]>> That's real. BB for two. Alex told a crap poll. I'm going to pull it up. Uh, President Gilbert getting up for five.

[00:49:39]Boohoo. Boo. Chip. Soy. If you're getting Ted Cruz endorsement, I don't want it. Eh, we're going to like I'm going to push back on that. The reason we got rid of Krenshaw is a large part because of Ted Cruz. So, >> yeah, he endorsed Steve Tof because like a feud that uh he had with Crenshaw.

[00:49:54]>> Yeah. So, I I hate Cruz, but you know what? He gets a pass on this one.

[00:49:59]>> Okay, let's let's talk about the Alice Intel poll. I I want to be clear about this.

[00:50:04]We still at America First Insight, again the official sponsors this channel, we um we still have Ellis Intel others as hype rated pollsters. And they could still be right about this. We're not denying that. But um guys, at some point a at some [ __ ] point, you have to just ask what the hell these polls on.

[00:50:24]Let me just pull up the um the polling for the uh Allison Intel poll. So, right here, the generic ballot is take a guess. Somebody take a guess.

[00:50:37]>> D plus like 14. It was D plus 14, my guys. I saw it.

[00:50:41]>> It was, >> by the way, Jacob, By the way, Jacob Robin, I don't think AOC would win the Vermont primary just because of how boomer heavy that state is. I know they have Bernie Sanders as their senator, but if again, it's a very old state.

[00:50:53]AOCC's base is very young.

[00:50:55]>> She would win progressive states that have that are a lot younger in their population. Vermont would be like Newsome territory or maybe bootage edge.

[00:51:03]>> So, here's the generic pallet part of the section. Uh, Prince Rider for five.

[00:51:07]Here's Dirty Secret. If Harris runs, she's a nominee in 28 cuz we're double- digitally with blacks. Oh, no. She if she runs, she's a nominee. I don't see a scenario where >> Yeah, that's a very That is a very uh dirty secret. Very dirty secret.

[00:51:18]>> Shut up. Okay, so this is a poll from Alice Intel and um let's look at some of these cross tabs because you want to get a good >> I'd like to meet the 12% of non-binary voting for Republican >> Patriots.

[00:51:31]But here's the dumbest one. You want proof this poll is full of [ __ ] I'll be clear. When it when it comes across tabs of some groups, you have larger margin of errors. I I get that. We've gone over this a million times. Like yes, with some samples, there's just higher margin of errors. So there can be a a bigger miss. I get that. But um why are women voting to the right of men?

[00:51:54]>> Why are women >> Why Why are they voting? Good lord.

[00:51:57]They're voting the right men by 12.

[00:51:59]>> 18. Yeah. Non-binary or voting as Republican is 18 to 29.

[00:52:04]>> YEAH. LOOK AT THIS. 18 TO 29. D + 71.

[00:52:09]NOT EVEN OBAMA AGAINST MCCAIN WAS ABLE TO PULL THAT OFF.

[00:52:15]>> YEAH. cuz you because all the gropers are going to be voting Democrat now, >> guys.

[00:52:21]Again, cross tabs get wonky and Ellison notorious for it. But this is worse than usual.

[00:52:27]Let's just keep going. Um, rest of demographics, whatever. March of error.

[00:52:32]I get that. White voters.

[00:52:34]>> Hispanics are only D plus 21. That's >> Look at black voters. D plus 39.

[00:52:41]I'll be honest, Dems being only up 21 with Hispanics, that's actually not that bad considering the rest of the poll.

[00:52:47]>> That's a warning sign to them that even with this dog [ __ ] from Alison, which they could still be right about this. I I'm going have doubts on that because just look at this guys. If black and Hispanic voters are voted for Trump or Republicans this much, not Trump, the generic Republican for crying out loud.

[00:53:05]>> Yeah, white. My honest opinion is I think there will probably be some Hispanic reversion mainly like the mainly it's mainly going to be among the actually it's pretty much only going to be among the Mexicans and even then it's probably only going to revert to like the 2020 coalition >> if that probably closer to 22 probably >> potentially. Yeah.

[00:53:23]>> Like it's going to get like yes Mexican voters are going to probably swing to the left but >> that's also because they're like the more low propensity type.

[00:53:30]>> Well yeah they're they're more low propensity and they are more swingy.

[00:53:33]Guys, do you really think Cubans are going to swing left?

[00:53:38]>> Puerto Rico.

[00:53:39]>> Yeah. No, >> Dems are going back to like their 2020 coalition in Florida. And yeah, that's probably going to be a massive blue tsunami nationwide, but >> they're not. I'm trying to explain these idiots like Baris that no, you cannot compare Mexican voters in the southern border with Cubans. And he's really saying no, the Cubans are hate Trump because he's about to invade Cuba. You want Cuba to vote Republican? You know how you do that? You freaking bomb Cuba.

[00:54:06]You think I'm exaggerating, >> bro? I saw a tweet earlier today that showed AOC winning Hispanics by 20 against [ __ ] Rubio.

[00:54:15]>> Yeah.

[00:54:16]>> And someone and someone said Rubio would win Cubans by Assad margins if he were running against AOC. Actually, he said Hispanics in general.

[00:54:24]>> Miami Dade would probably go to Rubio by like 20 or 30.

[00:54:28]>> People understand like Victor. So, by the way, by the way, Baris is the same guy that thinks we lose uh Kucky's fourth district.

[00:54:35]>> Oh, we'll get to that. We'll get to that. We'll get to that in a second.

[00:54:39]It's [ __ ] wild.

[00:54:39]>> Did you guys speak uh real quick, I just want to mention this before I forget.

[00:54:43]Did you guys see that the de the Tennessee Republican party stripped every and all Democrat state uh house?

[00:54:52]Sorry, I was coughing. stripped every member of the de uh stripped every Democrat in the state house of their committee positions. I saw that >> base kind of see GOP doesn't piss around.

[00:55:02]>> Yeah, we should be doing the same here.

[00:55:05]>> That's amazing. Yeah. So, >> oh, we can't do that because principles.

[00:55:09]>> Yeah, but like look at this guys. Guys, Cuban voters already Venezuelans like they're going to die for Trump. Like they're they're [ __ ] like R plus 90 at this point. Like they're saying [ __ ] yes, we love you Trump forever. What do you think's going to happen if we bomb Cuba?

[00:55:25]Donald Trump >> say C say Padway the future is ours.

[00:55:29]>> Do do people really think that Cubans and Venezuelans are against like bombing Venezuela and Cuba?

[00:55:36]>> Like uh yes actually because they love Nicholas Maduro.

[00:55:41]>> Yeah they love because they elected him.

[00:55:44]>> YEAH THEY YEAH.

[00:55:46]>> They they they he was the dyeleed dictator of Venezuela >> guys. It's like Yeah. It's just like the dulyeleed Ayatollah of Iran, you know.

[00:55:54]Yeah, guys, there was a there was a political article that came out. I got to find it where they were talking to like Cuban voters in Miami Dade and they're saying like, you know, hey, what's your thoughts of Trump? They're saying, eh, not the best. Hey, they say it's over the issue of Cuba and they're saying like, oh, it's because he's too harsh. They're saying no, he's not going to harsh enough Cuba.

[00:56:14]It's like that's what these people want.

[00:56:16]Do you really think these voters are like anti-regime change in Cuba?

[00:56:20]>> They still have families down there with that [ __ ] They are fundamentally still ethnics who have not assimilated. They are going to vote for what is naturally beneficial to them in their ethnic kin.

[00:56:32]>> Yeah. Well, especially a lot a lot of families still locked up in Cuba in prisons. But anyways, um Eric for five. Atlas has been as good since Bloomberg acquired them last year.

[00:56:43]They've had mixed results since then with their biggest miss being Poland.

[00:56:46]Yeah, I remember that.

[00:56:48]Princess Ryder for two. Alice Strong old 2024 till the very last week.

[00:56:53]You can argue that. We'll see. BB for two. Ellis Til to Bloomberg. Yeah, we talked about that. Uh, President Gilbert Getty up for 10. Honestly, Hispanics are honestly like white voters in many swing states. If you run far left candidates and I think you collapse Hispanics regards. Insider info from Hispanic here. You're not wrong. Hispanic voters, they don't like these progressive types.

[00:57:13]Usually there obviously there are some groups that that's less prominent than but yeah I'm just looking at some of these groups like how the [ __ ] are Republicans doing that good with black voters but Democrats are that good with white voters? How?

[00:57:28]>> Cuz it's a [ __ ] poll.

[00:57:29]>> Yeah, it's [ __ ] There's no in no universe do Republicans crack 30 with black voters yet lose whites by eight. If they're cracking third, which by the way, if they're cracking 30 with black voters, there's no reversal in the inner cities. In fact, it's accelerated. But whatever.

[00:57:48]They just This is horseshit.

[00:57:50]>> Heads up, by the way, polls will be closing in West Virginia in about 30 seconds.

[00:57:55]>> There's nothing in West Virginia. Well, actually, there is.

[00:57:57]>> Yeah, we're there primary there.

[00:57:59]>> There's like a there's a Senate there Senate primary. Um, I think there's like car I think Carol Miller's got a primary challenge.

[00:58:09]>> That's right.

[00:58:09]>> I think it's mainly some like state legislature stuff, but there's also the Nebraska primaries and >> that's Nebraska. That's a big one.

[00:58:16]>> And there's also the uh Newark mayor election, which I didn't even realize was today.

[00:58:20]>> Uh, I'm battle for two. Please evade Cuba from a Cuban American. Well, speaking of Alice Intel, let's look at the rest of the poll because you think that's bad. Oh, and by the way, they had 2,000 adults take the poll, which again, why we why are we pulling adults?

[00:58:35]Why?

[00:58:37]>> No wonder uh no wonder AOC is winning the nominations cuz all the illegals.

[00:58:42]>> Oh jeez. So uh Riley Moore for five. Uh Rhyn just blocked 2026 redistricing at South Carolina in 2917. Yeah, that's a big story. I made a whole video on that, but there is a chance with a special session. You just see a simple majority.

[00:58:56]So, uh, pressure McMaster to do something. Please, McMaster, get off your ass and do it. Okay, here's the, um, here's the which party you trust more to handle the following issues.

[00:59:09]And, um, does anybody notice the out? Does anybody notice the weird part of this part?

[00:59:17]Notice anything weird?

[00:59:18]>> The weird part of this part. Thank you for your infallible English. But just um notice anything odd about this. A certain issue.

[00:59:30]H what's the one issue that sticks like a sore thumb here?

[00:59:35]>> Let's figure it out. Oh yeah, that's right. Democrats winning immigration by nine.

[00:59:40]>> Not just that, look at defense or crime or taxes for crying out loud.

[00:59:45]>> Jobs is pretty [ __ ] bad.

[00:59:47]>> Yeah, that's with the economy. That's one thing. But guys, immigration, [ __ ] McCain in 2008 won this issue by 30 points. I know nobody cared about it back then, but still, this has been a Republican issue for decades.

[01:00:04]>> No, it's but it's cuz ICE is evil Gustapo and are rounding up citizens and stuff and whatever the hell. I don't know.

[01:00:12]>> [ __ ] >> We are We are We are Renee good. We are Alex Pretty and [ __ ] K dog for five with the internal pressure of Steve Marshall, Jay Mitchell, Barry Moore, and others to get a 70 map in Alabama. Do you thought Do you all think it's doable for 26?

[01:00:27]There's a lot of pressure in the state to do it. I They might try to do it. THE PROBLEM IS IVY DOESN'T WANT TO do it.

[01:00:33]It's like she's done a lot of good work as governor, but seriously, just freaking pass it.

[01:00:38]>> She's still a mod at the end of the day.

[01:00:40]Uh >> yeah, >> she's old as dirt and she thinks Dems are still the party of Bill Clinton.

[01:00:47]We're for sure at least we're getting a seat out of Alabama no matter what. It just matter of one one or two. So, >> but yeah, like look at this.

[01:00:55]>> I would love to see the Democrat party run AOC for Senate and then we run Lee Zeldon against her.

[01:01:01]>> Zeldon wins.

[01:01:04]Oh, that'd be great.

[01:01:05]>> That would unironically be like the most genius thing to do. I'm not even joking.

[01:01:10]>> That would be a winnable race for Zelden. Uh Trump is horrible in immigration but Vegas not deported.

[01:01:16]That's real. He's not deported Robin Swami yet.

[01:01:20]But yeah, it's just wild to think that this is an actual poll that came out. D plus 27 D plus 21 education fired whatever. But guys, when you get to immigration that you could tell automatically this poll is shifted by nine points on the left automatically you could tell like wait that's not normal.

[01:01:41]But the rest would fine. And it makes sense is when you get to immigration taxes, you have an issue with your sample. But speaking of the issue with your sample, we got to talk about the the primary because um ladies and gentlemen, according to Atlas Intel, we're getting AOC versus Rubio in 2026.

[01:02:03]>> [ __ ] insane. These [ __ ] have gone off their [ __ ] goop, bro.

[01:02:08]>> Here's my question. They they would probably have AOC winning the popular vote by >> 55 points.

[01:02:15]She He's going to rever She's going to win West Virginia. She's going to get Obama margins with all these voters.

[01:02:22]Guys, here's my question. And I don't know when the last time Alice Intel released a poll, I think it was last month. What has changed in a month to cause a 40point shift in the presidential primary between Vance and Rubio? because uh we're getting into a regime change or war or something. I don't know.

[01:02:42]>> Okay, fine. A small bump. How does Vance go down by 17 and Rubio up by 22?

[01:02:49]>> Because because Vance is fat.

[01:02:52]>> Yeah, look at this. AOC went up 10 points. Nome went down 14. Again, what has changed in the last month because a Nets win of 24 points on the Democrat side? Uh, >> nothing.

[01:03:08]>> I don't know. Some would probably say affordability, I guess. I don't know.

[01:03:11]>> [ __ ] How the hell is Harris only at 13%. I just realized that >> they probably barely sampled any black voters, >> guys. Throw I don't care what you think immediately into the garbage.

[01:03:24]>> Actually, this sample is probably much more youth skewed. That might be why.

[01:03:29]>> But there's no like guys, I DON'T CARE WHAT you have to say. Harris's not a 13% in the presidential primary. against AOC and Newsome. Maybe Newsome's a first or whatever. Maybe Harrison second.

[01:03:38]Whatever. She's not a 13%.

[01:03:42]Hell, the last poll had her at 8%.

[01:03:46]This is [ __ ] horseshit.

[01:03:47]>> This would probably make I think honestly over sampling the young vote.

[01:03:51]That actually could be a good explanation for both the generic ballot and AOC winning the primary. I don't know. It probably doesn't explain Rubio, but >> to be fair, there's a lot of young people like Rubio now. But >> I guess that's true. Maybe a lot of like young Hispanics, but >> because Yeah, because young people they love they love Rubio now, but that's my that's from what I'm hearing. But we'll see.

[01:04:14]Do you think Vance hate is online? Yes.

[01:04:17]>> I've literally not met a single person actually. No, that's that's a lie. I have met people in person like I know in real life who do just like Vance, but they are not people who are probably voting in the Republican party anyway in the primary. And I'm not saying that because they're Democrats. I'm saying that these people unironically think [ __ ] JD Vance collaborated >> with Israel to kill Erica Kirk so he could have a white wife when he runs for president at 28. And yeah, no, I literally know a group of people.

[01:04:50]>> I'm not kidding. Let me let me explain this.

[01:04:51]>> Sorry. They seriously think Kirk, they they seriously think Erica Kirk and JD Vance plotted with the state of Israel to kill Charlie Kirk so JD Vance could have a white wife and run for president in 2028 and dump his half Indian kids and Indian wife so he could bring about like like hardcore total [ __ ] white nationalism like Yeah. it. Yeah. No, it makes perfect sense that it makes perfect sense that the second coming of Adolf Hitler would have married and had kids with an Indian woman.

[01:05:29]>> I hope people realize that Vance and having a fourth kid.

[01:05:34]>> I hope >> it's crazy. No, I know. It's up real.

[01:05:39]It's [ __ ] insane.

[01:05:41]>> I Okay, who Okay, could you describe like these people like >> they are they are they are castos and white they're I mean, they're all Hispanics.

[01:05:55]>> How much Okay. Do they watch Do they watch a lot of Candace Owens?

[01:05:59]>> No. I asked them if they know who Candace Owens is. Only one person did.

[01:06:02]And then he said, "I don't listen to black women."

[01:06:07]>> Okay, enough of that. That that that's a schizophrenic crowd. No, outside of the schizophrenic.

[01:06:13]>> I I I should literally I should mention the only like literally I'm using this as an example. The only people I know who don't like Vance and are like rightwingle leaning are literal skitsist.

[01:06:24]>> Yeah. And they make up like 1% of the electorate.

[01:06:27]They they they literally make up a percent of the electorate if that.

[01:06:31]>> They're probably voting them anyways.

[01:06:33]>> They're freaking They're already Democrats in the first place. They're just guys, they love being the opposition. That's who these people are.

[01:06:38]Talk to some people about this. They love being the opposition. But you know why?

[01:06:45]>> They think we're money. because they make money off of >> and it's easier it's easier to be the opposition >> because all you got to do is complain and take a stand on these [ __ ] things they're going to pass anyways these people want to be in the the minority it's [ __ ] but it's reality of it and I do think what's going on I I'm very curious we're going to see what happens next Tuesday in Kentucky by the way I am still convinced and I know people are say you're coping or whatever Massie could still win. I'm not denying that. But I have this weird feeling that a lot of these polls are getting infected by [ __ ] Am I wrong for suggesting that?

[01:07:27]>> If they're over sampling young voters, then yeah, it make it would make sense for Massie to win.

[01:07:33]>> Just something like again, could they be right? Sure. But there there's something going on here with the polls lately.

[01:07:39]Just is it just me saying that?

[01:07:42]Just something doesn't seem right.

[01:07:43]Again, it's not because Democrats are winning. Just you look at this core demographics. It's like, wait, how the [ __ ] are Hispanics voting for Republicans with 40%, blacks at R plus 30, yet Democrats are with whites?

[01:07:56]I seriously think they're only sampling the white schizophrenic.

[01:08:00]The white college schizophrenic >> surprise me.

[01:08:06]>> Yeah, it would either for me, but we'll see, I guess.

[01:08:10]I'm not for two. That's the most schizophane I've heard. Yeah, it's wild.

[01:08:15]Polls over the place. Well, YEAH. I MEAN, RIGHT after Alice Intel dropped their [ __ ] immediately CNN D plus two or D plus three. It was.

[01:08:23]>> Oh, by the way, we didn't mention this, but uh Trump is currently in route to China.

[01:08:27]>> That's right. Yeah, he's going to China.

[01:08:30]And of course, the conspiracy targets are going about like what why does he not take advance to China? because he's the vice president and you don't want to take your entire like >> succession with he probably wants to be with his pregnant wife as well.

[01:08:44]>> Yeah. Plus, you don't want to scoop a chain of succession like that.

[01:08:49]>> So, >> who is Van's the father?

[01:08:52]>> Oh my gosh. It's It's going to start coming out that like he's not the real father. It's ex Charlie Kirk.

[01:08:57]>> You are not the father. Even though it's gonna be dumb, but >> it's nonsensical [ __ ] bro.

[01:09:05]>> Uh VP picks for Vance, Glenn Ynan, Marco Rubio, even DeSantis. It's Guys, Trump kind of confirmed it a couple days ago.

[01:09:12]It's Vance Rubio. He [ __ ] confirmed that [ __ ] >> It's not going to be anybody other than Rubio. Rubio has done a very good job.

[01:09:18]Vance is the nominee.

[01:09:20]>> Trump said it. He's just like, "Oh, that'd be a perfect world. It be Vance Rubio."

[01:09:25]>> He said it multiple times.

[01:09:27]>> Yeah. He said he just SAID THE CASH WAS JUST LIKE, "OH, YEAH." BUT GUYS, DON'T WORRY. He's prepared to run for another term. Don't worry, guys.

[01:09:34]Which I I still don't think.

[01:09:35]>> No, he he's going to have Erica Kirk run for president.

[01:09:38]>> Oh my gosh. Erica Kirk for president.

[01:09:44]>> Um be Erica Kirk and Netanyahu.

[01:09:49]>> Yeah, Net and Yahoo.

[01:09:51]Uh, every time I think that Netty Yahoo, I just think that track AP pack where it's like zero dollar from Apac or Netanyahu.

[01:09:57]>> Literally just like generate your best uh Candace Owens conspiracy theory.

[01:10:03]>> The Egyptians are killed Charlie Kirk or they're going to install Netanyahu as the president. I mean, now these same people are saying the data center is on Israeli SC.

[01:10:11]It's like, guys, everybody knows my my stance of the >> He's at it again. He's at it again. He just posted a picture of Venezuela with the American flag and the caption 51st state.

[01:10:22]>> I think he's kind of moved on from Canada now. He just wants >> Well, he just says, "Yeah, [ __ ] these guys. [ __ ] these guys."

[01:10:30]>> I love it when Trump trolls.

[01:10:32]>> Listen, I want to see it happen.

[01:10:34]I want to see this happen, guys. I I want I I want to see it for the memes because this would be the most like wild thing. How many people does Venezuela have again?

[01:10:45]What's the population? at something. It's like eight digits. Uh I'm [ __ ] um 30 32 million.

[01:11:02]>> Yeah, I don't think they would admit as one single state. Uh if they ever did, which I don't think they're going to, but they would probably split off. It would probably be bigger than Texas.

[01:11:11]Like slightly bigger than Texas. Yeah, I highlight that'll be one state. Probably they'll admit it in like five different states probably.

[01:11:18]>> Anyways, what's more boomer coded?

[01:11:20]Trump's truth posts or the replies to this truth post?

[01:11:23]>> I don't want to know.

[01:11:25]>> Literally, just go to any truth post from Trump and >> most schizophrenic stuff ever.

[01:11:30]>> No, it's just all like it's all like all boomer memes you see on Facebook. That's all it is. A lot of it's probably botched, too. But >> Oh, yeah. It's truth social. Like the only people that want like use Truth Social are the ones that want to like see what Trump posts and then the schizophrenics, the bots. Like that's about it. There's nothing else to truth social.

[01:11:50]All right. Um, who would Rubio pick for VP without Vance? It's be Vance Rubio.

[01:11:55]I'm not Guys, >> it it would be it's going to be Vance Rubio or Rubio Vance.

[01:11:59]>> Yeah, it's it's not it's gonna be Vance Rubio. I just I I don't see how why would Trump pick Vance to be his successor and then go with Rubio.

[01:12:08]>> And if somehow it's not Vance as Rubio's running mate, then um >> Santa Well, no, it can't be the Santis.

[01:12:17]>> No, I mean, okay, may maybe Vance could choose the Santis as a running mate, but that it wouldn't >> Well, you know, you know something really strange I've been noticing lately? So, we all know like our good friends Barrison Barnes, which Yeah, we got to talk about that, guys. They're saying that if Thomas Bassie loses his primary, Ed Golin's going to lose the general.

[01:12:37]>> Pretty sure both of them are voting Democrat anyways.

[01:12:40]>> Guys, listen. They They're only saying that now. I guarantee you because they're Well, let's cut the [ __ ] They work for the campaign. They cut They work for the campaign.

[01:12:49]>> They probably do work. Oh, yeah. They're probably >> They're probably funed by Thomas Mass for crying out loud.

[01:12:54]>> I'm sure they are. But it's like I guarantee you he did one of his shitty polls and they realize he's down like 10 points or whatever and others SAYING GUYS YOU CAN'T VOTE for Gold. He's going to lose by 20 points in the general.

[01:13:06]>> They're going to manufacture a poll that has down probably because uh >> democracy >> blue well blue tsunami and uh because Thomas Massie they and MAGA because the best congressman >> they're giant scam. If it if the [ __ ] Epstein [ __ ] doesn't work in Kentucky is fourth, you really think it's going to work in the Ohio Senate race like that dumb [ __ ] Barnes is saying? He's literally saying if Sheron Brown runs only on Epstein, he's going to win.

[01:13:36]>> Doesn't remind Chris Papis, pretty sure Chris Tapis is going to be running on Epstein because of like, >> you know, this reminds me of >> when Republicans ran a CO in 22.

[01:13:47]>> Reminds me of it. ignoring all the other issues. How did that go?

[01:13:53]>> Dems ran basically only on abortion, I'm pretty sure.

[01:13:56]>> Yeah. And a juice with the turnout just enough. But how how does Epstein Nobody People forgot about Epstein 5 days ago, five months ago even. Nobody gives a [ __ ] about anymore.

[01:14:10]Uh Baris and Barnes probably manipulated the Benny mods be in their favor. Oh yeah, 100%.

[01:14:14]>> What state does Barnes live in? Because I know Baris I think he's in North Carolina. Uh, Barnes is V Las Vegas, I think.

[01:14:21]>> So, that explains >> So, is he gonna So, is he gonna be voting them against Joel Lombardo because Epstein?

[01:14:28]>> But guys, you you're not going to win these races just running Epstein. I hope people realize that.

[01:14:34]>> Wait, who? Wait, we're running Jeffrey Epstein for president?

[01:14:36]>> Yes, we are.

[01:14:38]>> Yeah. No, >> that's awesome.

[01:14:39]>> No, but but basically, uh Barnes Bears is saying like uh Massiey's going to lose Well, they're they're all admitting Massiey's losing the primary and that Gold's going to lo. Yes.

[01:14:49]>> Hello. But like also no [ __ ] I don't understand what people expect out of out of Kentucky because these people don't understand that one, Kentucky is a is a closed primary. Not semiopen.

[01:15:02]>> Closed.

[01:15:04]>> Closed. Not even independents can vote in their primaries. I think right. That is correct. I'm not speaking out of my ass.

[01:15:09]>> I'm pretty sure uh independents and Democrats cannot vote. So sure they could change their registration, but this isn't Wyoming. There's not enough of them to make us to make a difference like that. So, it's entirely Republicans voting. And you have a guy who on Twitter brags constantly about how much he opposes Trump. Yes, he campaigns as Trump's number one guy, >> pro Trump, >> proTrump mega, but at the end of the day, Gain is outspending him. If I remember correctly, he is >> and he is slamming him >> in every media market in the district for constantly voting against every GOP bill because the the deficit or Jeffrey Epstein and it's gotten to the point that groups affiliated with him are now saying that Ed Garin is owned by the LGBTQ mafia with a [ __ ] Star of David with a rainbow behind him. Star of David, excuse me.

[01:16:07]They're there. Like like I'm sorry. Like I don't buy the argument that people are like, "Oh, if you oppose [ __ ] George Soros or this, you're anti-Semitic." But I'm sorry. There is nothing that you can argue that that like talking about how some rich dude is funding Ed Gain and then putting a [ __ ] Star of David behind him as like it's supposed to be a negative.

[01:16:28]That is pretty blatantly anti-Semitic.

[01:16:30]Like no. So yeah, no, he's going to lose. He's going to get about 35 40% of the vote. He there is a sore loser law.

[01:16:37]He cannot split the vote. He can't run and split the vote. Um his career is over. It's been over for the better part of a year at this point.

[01:16:46]>> I think Barnes and Baris just think that every massie voter is going to vote Democrats.

[01:16:50]>> Even it's not enough people though. It's not enough [ __ ] people.

[01:16:53]>> I would not be surprised if Ed Garin ends up getting ends up getting more votes in the primary election than the Democrats combined for in their own primary.

[01:17:01]>> Please. Well, they're going to >> uh Oh, by the way, yay. What's your thoughts on our Senate prediction?

[01:17:06]>> I didn't watch it. I don't care. Uh, what does it look like again?

[01:17:09]>> Uh, 52 for the GOP.

[01:17:11]>> Post it. Post it in general and I will make fun of everyone for this.

[01:17:14]>> Well, um, yeah, this is what we made again. D plus4 D plus 55 electorate. I posted in general.

[01:17:20]>> That is what I've been I've been banking on the whole time. This looks about right to me. I don't have any real complaints.

[01:17:26]>> Wow. Right. for one, >> if Abdul El say is the nominee, uh I do think we could see a Republican flip in Michigan. Uh otherwise, this looks about right.

[01:17:39]The only thing that I can go either way on is Susan Collins. I think she's either going to win comfortably by like two or three points or she's going to get ass blasted. I haven't decided yet.

[01:17:47]>> I could see that. Um, it really just depends on how much Graham I'm a Nazi platner goes over with Maine voters because because as we all know, Democrats are the real racists.

[01:17:58]>> Shut the [ __ ] up. I still think that's a shitty campaign strategy. That's just my take.

[01:18:03]>> New Hampshire could be interesting. Uh, we we we said the same thing in 2022, but I think that Cenounu is actually a pretty decent option. I could see it getting within five points. I can't complain about that too much. Iowa looks fine. And I can maybe move it to lean.

[01:18:19]Uh, and Ohio, yeah, looks about right.

[01:18:24]>> And North Carolina because Watley is for some like >> it's the margins are obviously going to improve from the polling. That seems pretty blatant. Uh, Cooper has near universal name recognition as a guy who's been elected twice in the state and was attorney general running uncontested in the '90s.

[01:18:42]But Watley, I'm sorry, he's not going to win. And I wouldn't I actually wouldn't put on George O's Ling D. I would put it at Till >> only because yes, because we saw how well Waro did. Waro honestly should have won by more considering who his opponent was. As up will get the black turnout that he needs and he and uh anyone all Republican candidates are going to be much better than uh than Walker. So, even though it's going to be a bluer environment, I would remind people, yes, Osaf raises a lot of money. 90% of it is from out of state. Look it up. There there's no real internal appeal within the state forum. I think what's going to happen is Osaf is going to get under 50% in the runoff. It'll probably be like 495 to 48 or something like that.

[01:19:30]>> God, not again.

[01:19:31]>> And there's going to be a runoff where he's going to win by three. That is my final prediction or my semi-final prediction for Georgia. Uh just because I don't know because like it it is a red state at this like I'm not going to say it's a red red state but it's a it's a it was leanar I mean what did Trump win it by what two and a half three points.

[01:19:49]>> Yeah >> give or take. So I think >> yeah go ahead.

[01:19:53]>> I think I was just say I think it's interesting because I said I would put Georgia at I think Georgia at leind is fine where it is. I would put North Carolina at tilty tilt D. I think that as time goes on, because here's what I said.

[01:20:11]Here's what I said to him. I need to prime my mind. I need to pry my eyes off Crusader Kings real quick. Here's what I said to rap. I said that yes, currently I would say like if the election were held today, I do think that Cooper would beat out Watley and North Carolina, but I think a Cooper doesn't have nearly as much money as Watley has at his disposal. what leaves. He is absolutely going to be getting money as time goes on. He was the former chair of the party. He is absolutely he has people there. There's no way he's not going to be getting any money. And two, Roy Cooper does not have the advantage of being the incumbent people thinks he does. Furthermore, he's been out of office for two years. The average voter does not have that [ __ ] far of a memory span. I don't think that Cooper being the former governor is going to be nearly as big of an advantage as people think it is. I don't think that Cooper is going to outspend Wetley, especially as we get closer with August, September, October closing in within the last 90 or so days of election day. And I think Wetley has a lot of ammunition to use against Cooper, especially as the as the election day gets closer, he's going to have a lot more. There's a lot of [ __ ] coming out about Roy Cooper. There's been a lot of [ __ ] known about Roy Cooper for a while. He could very easily make this an issue on certain things where Roy Cooper did as governor.

[01:21:41]Whether or not that is going to be as effective as people think it might be is up in the air because like I said, people aren't going to give a [ __ ] too much because Roy Cooper's been out of power for two years now. It really will depend on the funding gap. I think >> I could see that. Yeah, for sure. And I think one thing we talk about a lot in politics is the GOP >> sucks >> sits. Okay. Yes. But the GOP sits on their ass for the first six or seven months of the election.

[01:22:10]>> Six, seven.

[01:22:12]>> And what happens is it's roughly around Labor Day is when it normally happens.

[01:22:17]They start they they dump all of their ads at once. They shoot their load at the same like they shoot the they shoot their entire load all at once.

[01:22:24]>> Yeah. All at once.

[01:22:25]>> All at once. And it's very effective because people don't really tune people don't tune into politics until Labor Day. That has been the strategy the GOP has gone with and it's been more or less correct.

[01:22:37]>> Well, and also I would also say with the whole ad spending thing, we're still spending MONEY NOW. EVEN FREAKING RNC chair is a dumbass.

[01:22:44]>> Yeah, >> they're starting to build their infrastructure up.

[01:22:46]>> We're still like we're not spending Dems right now.

[01:22:49]>> Yeah, that's what we're doing.

[01:22:51]Dems are already >> Dems are already blasting the uh Sandy Hook Promise uh sweet little Daniel ads.

[01:22:59]>> So gosh, it's just it's >> by the way, the only and by the way, the only reason they're using Sandy Hook promises, as I've said before, and I'll continue to say it, it's because Act Blue is being investigated for corruption.

[01:23:09]>> A and I know for a fact any week now it's gonna that bomb's going to drop and they don't replace that that bomb is going to drop hard, bro.

[01:23:16]>> Yeah. Like people think I'm like I'm lying about it, guys.

[01:23:20]Like [ __ ] James Comr's like I'm not exaggerating. He's actually like the oversight committee's on it right now.

[01:23:26]So >> look, Comr is on it.

[01:23:29]>> Um I think a lot of people are also failing to take into account we have Todd Blanch at DHS now.

[01:23:37]>> And he has been going crazy style. He has been going [ __ ] crazy style.

[01:23:43]Animal style. Isis style.

[01:23:46]>> Isis style. He's busting it down sexual style.

[01:23:49]>> Yeah. Quirked up [ __ ] old quirked up attorney busting it down sexual style.

[01:23:55]>> Yeah. I'm sorry about your sweet little Daniel, but I'm not voting for demon rats.

[01:23:59]>> Yeah, >> I don't I don't I don't Okay, I'm sorry you lo I was I'm I'm sorry you lost your son in a skull shooting. That doesn't mean that I'm not allowed to have a country, though.

[01:24:11]>> All right, BB for two. Republicans actually gained from last intel poll.

[01:24:15]Wait, what? Republicans actually gained that poll at C++ 15. What the hell?

[01:24:19]>> Okay. Well, I don't know what Atlas is doing. Well, I do know they're >> they're overcorrecting for 2025 because they were they were showing competitive races in both elections. Uh, and they got [ __ ] killed. So, >> and it was fair. Everybody else was showing the same thing. It's not really their fault. They just everybody was wrong. And I'm not even sure how much of that was them being off as much as it was voters were suddenly very motivated to show up when Democrats shut down the government.

[01:24:48]>> Yeah. Now they're like, "Yeah, we got to vote Democrat to we got to say the shutdown or whatever."

[01:24:53]>> No, like it's the [ __ ] You guys know the uh that one video of Tabuscus, you know, is they cutting food stamps.

[01:24:59]>> Yeah, I know you're talking about >> Tobuscus, man. That guy's Man, if you've seen his Twitter, >> it's glorious. Yeah, he he uh I I lost a lot of respect for him when he said we should be aborting black children but not white children. Like I don't think we should be aborting children.

[01:25:14]>> Yeah, that that that was bad.

[01:25:16]>> That is just straight up nasty.

[01:25:18]>> It is interesting. He chuted out as soon as he got You get accused of sexual assault falsely one time and you just immediately shut up.

[01:25:25]>> Uh a glitchy.

[01:25:27]I get those ads so much. Well, yeah.

[01:25:29]Again, their act blue thing's falling apart. They It's still not a good replacement. Like who who says, "Yeah, we got to donate to Sandy Hook Promise.

[01:25:36]Yeah, let's let's make their entire apparatus." They don't got enough time for that and they know it. And these idiots, they don't understand. Like Republicans, they're spending money now.

[01:25:45]They're [ __ ] spending a bunch of money.

[01:25:47]>> Are Democrats actually like Do they still link Act Blue? Are they still getting donations?

[01:25:51]>> They still do, but like you look at their actual numbers, they're getting jack [ __ ] Some c some candidates are still getting money, but it's not everybody. The main apparatus is dead.

[01:26:00]They have nobody raising money right now.

[01:26:02]>> Well, yeah. We cut off USA ID. I don't know. Like what do you Did you think this was organic?

[01:26:06]>> No, it was organic.

[01:26:07]>> Did you think that Do you think that the Lip Tars were actually raising millions of dollars organically and it wasn't being uh funded through NOS's paid for by your tax dollars? Are you Are you [ __ ] [ __ ] >> Yes. Uh President Gil were giddy up for five.

[01:26:19]>> You are.

[01:26:20]>> They're using Sandy Hook Promise because their Lord and Savior Tim Walls was friends with school shooters. Oh gosh.

[01:26:25]>> This is true. He is friends with school shooters.

[01:26:27]>> I can't believe he's retiring because he got exposed for that. It's some really bad stuff. But >> if anything, I kind of wish Nick Shirley had exposed him in like October of this year.

[01:26:37]>> Yeah, that would not. But to be fair, like without that, we would never had the investigations of Small stuff.

[01:26:42]That's the thing.

[01:26:43]>> That is true. Yeah, >> because now now there's freaking I mean guys, they're every day now they're the DHS or DOJ they're announcing. Yeah, we casually closed 300 um fake uh luring centers today in Minneapolis.

[01:26:56]>> Dude, the quality luring center. We've had we've had like luring centers or or like leaning. We've had I think we've I think there was a leaning center in Dallas which uh I think the owner of that had was uh well the event got cancelled but well it got cancelled by Abbott but it was like a Muslim it was like a Muslim only in water park event.

[01:27:18]>> Yeah.

[01:27:18]>> In Grand Prairie, Texas. So >> um Charlie Howard for two. Cooper's a favorite but Wetley can win. I agree with that. So I forgot them. I missed the super chat. Just want to read it.

[01:27:26]Mhm.

[01:27:27]>> All right. Uh DB for two. South Carolina's GOP Senate leadership is spineless. Oh, they're [ __ ] useless.

[01:27:34]All right. Yeah, but just I I did see that there isn't our quality equality ling center. There's another one. I know, >> Mr. President. There's been another quality ling center.

[01:27:42]>> Like I can't believe that. And the sad part, this is real. This has been going on for god knows how many years. How many years and how many billions of dollars have gone to these lid centers?

[01:27:57]>> Seriously, >> do you not want to give Do you not want to give or give these kids a quality education? They're they're trying to >> they are learing so hard one of them might end up being a Virginia senator one day.

[01:28:08]>> It's like uh >> this bananas and rice, you know, >> but >> whoa. Okay. You can't say that, buddy.

[01:28:15]Yeah, but no, it's like you look at like the centers and so the funniest video of that whole thing was when they went inside the ling center and you could just tell they put up like five minutes ago.

[01:28:25]>> Like the walls were put up like five minutes ago.

[01:28:29]>> No, very novel quality center, not Indian. What's wrong with you?

[01:28:37]>> But no, it's like >> you know what I'm sorry.

[01:28:39]>> And I still think like that's going to be a big issue that that that itself that's a hot take of mine. I think it's be a lot bigger issue than people think it's going to be like the whole like Larry Center stuff like not not Le Center itself but like the the fraud stuff they're investigating because they're just casually finding LA.

[01:28:54]>> It's going to be it's not only is it going to be bigger Vance when he runs for president in 28 is going to be able to say hey I was at the head I I was I was I was leading the charge on all this.

[01:29:06]>> Yeah. And people understand like people are wondering like what happened to Doge which again Doge is still in effect actually it's still it's actually embedded in the government now but >> it'll be it'll be embedded in the Texas government soon it's still there >> you have fines >> but people just think it's gone it's like no it's not technically gone I guess technically yes but a it's kind of just in the government now it's kind of just there so it's kind of like you can't get >> is gone their efforts are not >> yeah and On top of that, Doge was never meant to go after like the center stuff.

[01:29:41]That was never the intention of Doge.

[01:29:43]>> Well, I think maybe we'll have finds will go after the leaning centers in Texas.

[01:29:48]>> Leaning centers.

[01:29:49]>> Like Doge was never supposed to go after that. It was supposed to go after like the [ __ ] like with social security. It's like, wait, why is there 10 million people over the age of 200 on social security? Wait a second here. What's going on here?

[01:30:02]>> Really makes you think.

[01:30:03]>> Yeah, but I remember the excuse for that. It's like, no, if that's happening, but guys, those people are dead for 100 years. Uh, then why are they still in the system?

[01:30:12]Why are they in the system still receiving checks?

[01:30:16]>> By the way, breaking news. Polls have closed in the great state of West Virginia.

[01:30:20]>> Yay.

[01:30:20]>> In the great state of West Virginia.

[01:30:22]>> I'm not doing okay right now for the west of the state of Virginia.

[01:30:26]>> I'm not doing okay right now for five.

[01:30:27]Not convinced of the whole Dems are broke thing. On paper, maybe, but they still have Alex Soros, Reed Hoffman, the woke celebrities. They're not giving money to everybody. That's the problem.

[01:30:36]They're they're not giving money to anybody, these top Democrat donors.

[01:30:40]They don't want to. They're saying, "Fuck you guys. You guys suck at this."

[01:30:44]So, that's the main problem. Even their big donors don't want to give them money.

[01:30:49]I wonder why.

[01:30:50]>> They aren't aren't they still giving money to like Telerico or >> Oh, yeah. Some candidates. Yes. But like the main the like super PACs, no.

[01:30:58]They're saying [ __ ] you.

[01:31:01]>> [ __ ] you.

[01:31:02]>> [ __ ] you. I remember to inform I forget to inform the people >> of this uh of this stream that I was in New Bron Falls >> this week and I'm sorry.

[01:31:12]>> No, no, no, no. I I didn't even get to the bad part.

[01:31:15]>> There's wrong people.

[01:31:16]>> New Bron Falls is the bad part.

[01:31:18]>> New Bronals is like the best place in the world. Anyways, >> I know why you're saying New Bronals is good. [ __ ] you. Anyways, uh I saw a Taller Rico sign in in one of the yards and >> it's it's over.

[01:31:32]We're flipping Texas.

[01:31:33]>> I was going to say, were you talking about the one on the billboard near the Bies off I30?

[01:31:38]>> No, no, no. Was it was like it was like on somebody's like backyard fence hanging off of the main roads like they were trying to show it to everyone how much they [ __ ] suck. Was it like in in Was it in like inner city New Bronals or >> No, it was like the nice like rich like like southern suburbs. Like what's wrong with you people?

[01:31:57]>> They're supposed to be like not like evil and [ __ ] up.

[01:32:00]>> They're they're California inner Texas in real time.

[01:32:04]>> The lyrics centers are arriving.

[01:32:05]Anyways, uh DB for two. Who is better for Texas AG? Middleton or Roy? That's for the Texas people.

[01:32:11]>> Uh I'm Middleton. I don't I don't like Chip Chip Royy's TDS. I'm not sure how much it will affect him.

[01:32:17]>> Chipsoy, I'm not sure.

[01:32:19]>> I like I like Chip Roy. I don't think he's a rhino. I'm still voting Maize Middleton. I'd be fine with Chip Roy. I think he'd be a good AG.

[01:32:27]>> Chipro isn't terrible on the issues. Um it's just that it's just that he doesn't want to work with Trump. That's literally it, bro.

[01:32:33]>> Right.

[01:32:34]>> I think I think with Middleton you maybe he probably have a more cooperative relationship with like the legislature and he'd also I mean again he's like the chief law enforcement officer of Texas.

[01:32:45]So, he's going to be enforcing the laws that the legislature is passing. I Chip like a Chip Roy. I think Chip Roy would be a great like federal attorney general. But, >> oh yeah, attorney general. Maybe he wants somebody that has the >> I just fear Jeff Sessions type where he makes one dumb mistake and he's [ __ ] But >> anyways, >> I think I think he would be a good attorney general under Vance because he doesn't dislike Vance. It's just a Trump issue.

[01:33:12]>> All right.

[01:33:12]>> Be a good option, honestly. American nerd for six. Sad news for Kelvin Kulage project. Florida's trying to is planning to shut down the alligator Alcatres facility over rising cost. Oh, that's not good.

[01:33:22]>> So, basically, in summary, I think all three of us Texans are voting for Maze Middleton Magazine.

[01:33:27]>> Yeah, I'm I'm voting I'm voting for Middleton.

[01:33:29]>> Yeah. So, we're showing >> I think all I think all three of us voted for Aaron Wrights as well, by the way, right Patriots. But yeah, so alligator Elman shut down. Sad.

[01:33:39]>> I killed myself in contrast. Who you guys uh who did you guys vote for for governor in the primary?

[01:33:44]>> I just voted Abbott. I didn't really care.

[01:33:46]>> I voted I vote I'll admit it. I voted Chambers, but I >> Chambers.

[01:33:52]>> I I Okay, I regret it. I I probably should have voted Abbott, but I do but you know >> Oh gosh.

[01:33:58]>> I don't like Abbott. I voted for Chambers. It wasn't going to change anything to begin with. I don't care about more so me being as a a dissident against Abbott because you know I'm the trailblazer. I'm the one who said vote for huff fines in 22.

[01:34:10]>> But according to schizophrenics at Twitter, Trump betrayed them for back in Abbott. Anyways, >> truth truth. Truth. Truth. Truth. Nuke.

[01:34:18]Yeah.

[01:34:20]>> There's like a big chambers supporter that's voting for Gina Hinahosa or something because >> Yeah. Abbott's bad. Um, Donald Trump heartlessly cancels social security payments to Revolutionary War veterans.

[01:34:33]That's real. Yeah. Very sad. George Washington, you're not getting your check anymore. He's sad.

[01:34:39]>> Sorry, President Washington. You've done a good job, but you're voting Democrat now.

[01:34:44]>> He already was. He's already been voting Democrat for 150 years.

[01:34:47]>> No, okay, not honestly. What if one of those like uh what is it? Uh social security, whatever. I What if one of those is actually George Washington?

[01:34:57]>> No, social security was made in the 1940s. I don't think they retroactively put him on.

[01:35:02]>> Yeah, I don't think Well, for some people they did. No. No. No. They probably did put it for correction. It was made in the 30s.

[01:35:10]>> But yeah. No, just like they they give George Washington security number.

[01:35:14]>> Shut up. Shut the [ __ ] up, you little [ __ ] >> It It was It was a 70 chest move to Flip Virginia.

[01:35:19]>> You were >> Oh, by the way, guys, while while we were also on this >> By the way, guys, while we were also on the Shut up.

[01:35:26]>> 5 foot eight.

[01:35:27]>> Thank you.

[01:35:28]>> 5'8. Uh >> 58. Anyways, uh Texans, uh because we already discussed the primaries, vote for >> uh Ken Paxton, obviously, uh vote for Maize Middleton. If you want to vote for Chip Roy, fine, but I prefer Maize slightly.

[01:35:45]>> I will be having you vote for Roy. I'm just saying.

[01:35:48]>> Chipoy, >> vote, vote for Bo French. You better You guys better [ __ ] vote for Bo French.

[01:35:54]Uh and then vote for And then vote for Thomas Smith for the Court of Criminal Appeal Appeals. Nobody knows about that race, but uh But I like Thomas Smith. He's a Patriots. Allison Fox is a rhino.

[01:36:05]>> Uh primary with the Rhinos in South Carolina. Well, again, like the they're going to try to force what's going to happen to Trump's going to tell McMaster to do it or else. And um he doesn't do the special session and pass it. The fact that you have people I cannot believe the act said we need we need a vibrant Democrat party. The reason they're saying that is because they they don't like that during Democrat presidencies, they have no incentive.

[01:36:28]Like Democrats don't have incentives to give them aid or like earmark anything because there's not a single Democrat in the uh delegation.

[01:36:37]But you know, counterpoint >> just how much how much were they [ __ ] giving you anyways?

[01:36:43]>> 5 cents.

[01:36:44]>> Like like I'm sorry. Like yes, like there was the system where they gave South Carolina some money mostly because Klyurn was essentially responsible for getting Biden elected in the first place.

[01:36:56]So that's why they got some money. But like what? Like you think [ __ ] think Gavin Newsome's going to give South Carolina any money?

[01:37:03]>> Give him plenty of money.

[01:37:04]>> Do you think Bro, >> no Gavin Newsome is not going to give South Carolina money. He's going to march in. He's going to immediately take control with the not the National Guard.

[01:37:21]He's going to send law enforcement in.

[01:37:22]He's going to activate the National Guard. He's going to enact martial law on these southern states for trying to do anything against him. And I'm not joking. I know that sounds very far-fetched, but he said he would do such things before.

[01:37:34]>> Okay.

[01:37:34]>> I what I hate I hate all the [ __ ] LAR on Twitter currently where people like, "Oh, this is why we need a second reconstruction." It's like, okay, first of all, no, shut the [ __ ] up. Second of all, why is what the South's doing somehow more evil? As if just because the Democrats that they're gerrymandering for political purposes just so happen to be black, all of a sudden it's a [ __ ] moral crime for them to have done so. I don't care. I straight up do not care this idea. Just be, oh, like like I they literally made this argument in the Supreme Court just if these Democrats were white, it would be legal. It would be fine. Who the [ __ ] cares? But because they have dark skin and them having dark skin somehow makes drawing them out for partisan reasons some kind of [ __ ] like Nuremberg trial crime. I I [ __ ] hate this country.

[01:38:28]>> I hate everyone in it.

[01:38:30]>> Yeah, I hate you too, Shorty.

[01:38:31]>> Uh that peach state uh for five. Do you think Georgia uh do you think Georgia could go Democrat for governor AG? I live outside of Atlanta and I'm nervous.

[01:38:39]Um, I'll say Republicans do better down ballot in Georgia. That's the first thing. And secondly, the Democratic candidates are kind of suck. And thirdly, it's a midterm, so black turnout will be lower.

[01:38:49]>> Um, maybe Secretary of State could if the Republicans end up nominating Vernon Jones, which they probably >> Please, I forgot he's running. Oh god, no.

[01:39:00]>> He's like the only one that actually has like decent name recognition, I think.

[01:39:03]So, >> please no. God, no. Uh, bar for five.

[01:39:08]Quick question about the stream. Will the night streams be permanent? If so, what's a weekly schedule? Um, it'll be permanent most nights except Mondays.

[01:39:14]Mondays will be morning streams.

[01:39:15]>> So, for those who weren't there when I explained it last week, here's what happened. Um, a lot of us have been unable to join the morning streams because either Well, I mean, one I work Luke works. Uh, Yay is typically in his college classes. John works. The only person who could probably and real Texan is doing whatever real Texan does. The only person who could sometimes semicconsistently potentially join on his PC was Yay. And he didn't join because he [ __ ] hated the microphone calls. The [ __ ] between Luke and I.

[01:39:47]Basically, we all came together. We said, "Hey, we need to like we're trying to help Rap make this his career. Rap wants to do this as his career." Um, we were like, "Cool. We're not going to do the stupid fighting [ __ ] anymore. We're going to take this more professionally.

[01:40:00]That's why we have the new intro. That's why we have the current new screen saver. We're trying to actually make this You know what I meant? The idol the idol animation with the real American and the [ __ ] vapor wave moon.

[01:40:13]>> My point is my point is we're trying to help rap make this more professional.

[01:40:17]We're reigning our [ __ ] in. I don't know if you guys have noticed I haven't raised my voice or screamed any. I've been reserving myself a lot more. We're trying to help him succeed here. So part of the way that we I'm not going to get into the analytics of his channel, but we did notice around the time we start shortly around shortly be after the time we start that's when he gets the peak of his engagement. So we're like cool we're going to move outside Mondays where most of us have that Monday off for to some extent at least Luke and I at the very least. I know Yay's probably going to have them off going into the summer um if he's not working. We were like, "Cool. Monday will be the morning stream where we catch up on the news. But for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, sometimes Friday, we're just going to have the evening streams that allow us to cover the news of the day. That will have everyone chill out. Everyone will have access to their actual, I don't want to say professional equipment, but it'll have access to their actually nice equipment. So, you guys aren't hearing us screaming. We don't have shitty connections. You guys won't hear my microphone peek. You won't hear Luke and I arguing like a bunch of idiots.

[01:41:22]Everyone's here. Everyone's tuning in.

[01:41:24]We're trying to help Rap grow his channel basically. And we're being more courteous. And we said, "We should do this." And Rap said, "We're going to do this. This is what engagement is."

[01:41:33]>> All right.

[01:41:33]>> This helps us out a lot. We're like, "Cool. We're going to do that from now on."

[01:41:36]>> Oh, by the way, we got a we got some funny results out of West Virginia.

[01:41:40]>> Oh, yeah. Shelley Moore Capital is losing Jeff is losing Jeff Virginia. But now she's winning Marian County by 41.

[01:41:47]>> She's not doing Hold on. Hold on. Let me pull this up. Yes, obviously she's going to win still, but she is not doing too good.

[01:41:54]>> The [ __ ] >> Yeah, I think we'll go ahead and just stay live for West Virginia at this point.

[01:41:58]>> We'll just watch a little bit as well, huh?

[01:42:01]>> Yeah. Okay, that is She is not She's up now, but she's not doing too well.

[01:42:06]>> Pull up Pull up the House Republican primary as well. One of them.

[01:42:09]>> Yeah, there's Miller. That's the one that's kind of >> Yeah, that one's up in the air.

[01:42:12]>> Oh, she's Well, I think more is uncontested. Yeah, one of them's uncontested, but the other one I think as an actual challenger.

[01:42:21]>> Yeah. Larry Jackson is prime and Carrie Miller. Carol Miller. So, >> uh, when is uh I'm sorry, I' I've already forgotten what the word is.

[01:42:32]Never mind.

[01:42:32]>> You have dementia.

[01:42:33]>> He's forgotten the word.

[01:42:35]>> Uh, it was a certain state. We're waiting on like a certain Republican getting primar.

[01:42:40]>> Kentucky.

[01:42:41]>> No, no, no. Not Kentucky. It's like a no name. Oh, I'm sorry. Yeah. Iowa. Iowa for uh Marinette Miller Meeks.

[01:42:48]>> Oh yeah, she better >> is she she better not be [ __ ] unopposed the primary.

[01:42:53]>> I think she is.

[01:42:54]>> Hello Jeffrey Epste.

[01:42:56]>> I'm gonna Yeah. Can we run Jeffrey Epstein against Sarah? She he'd probably do better than the general.

[01:43:00]>> The sad part the sad part is if Epste was alive and actually ran for something, he probably would win something just off the power.

[01:43:07]>> I mean he would win in Berkeley, I think.

[01:43:09]>> Oh my god. Honestly, if you ran Jeffrey Epstein for an office, all he'd have to do he maybe he'd run as a Democrat and all and he'd win just by saying Trump's a meanie.

[01:43:19]>> Yeah, he would.

[01:43:20]>> Like, do you guys do you guys do remember how the left essentially like glazed Jeffrey Epste and was using his dislike of Trump as some sort of own?

[01:43:30]>> I remember that.

[01:43:31]>> Like, okay, these guys simultaneously think that Trump was his business partner and he was involved in all things. He actually he visited the the island and participated in it over and over.

[01:43:43]>> Breaking news, breaking news, breaking news. Dan Rooney is dropping out of Oklahoma's first uh >> Jackson where they w >> Oh, [ __ ] >> That's amazing.

[01:43:56]>> Lermire is going to be the upgrade.

[01:43:58]>> Hey guys, turns out that's how you get in Trump's good graces. You actually be a team player and now we get a top.

[01:44:04]We're going to get a very good congressman Oklahoma first. Now, hey 17, which they already had a good one. Uh, that's Tulsa sub. I think suburban. You go from >> I think it's like inner city Tulsa.

[01:44:16]>> You go from Ke uh from Kevin Hearn, who's like a Btier congressman, pretty good to possibly like we're talking like a tier type in um layer. That is amazing. H Sabatini, you dumb [ __ ] LIKE WHAT WHAT DO YOU THINK WAS GOING TO HAPPEN IN your race? If you would have done the layer strategy, lay me ran against uh Lakeford and yeah, he didn't win or whatever, but he got Trump's graces and now he's a congressman.

[01:44:41]H Sabatini could have done the same thing. But no, you had to do your [ __ ] You had to be influencer first.

[01:44:49]>> Mhm.

[01:44:50]>> H I love influencers. Don't you guys?

[01:44:53]>> Why the [ __ ] was Capito only at 70% on Poly Market?

[01:44:57]>> Um three months ago.

[01:44:58]>> Oh yeah. Oh yeah. The Calvin Coolage project. I know. Uh he he endorsed Tom.

[01:45:02]>> South Carolina House Judiciary Committee passes 70 district map despite state senate rejecting signed it agreement.

[01:45:11]>> Yeah. It seems like the state house is going to force it through and >> they're going to say [ __ ] you guys.

[01:45:14]We're not leaving.

[01:45:15]>> Have you Have you guys already explained that or do you want me to go ahead and just do it real quick?

[01:45:18]>> You explain it. You explain it.

[01:45:20]>> Okay. So essentially uh in order to pass this they needed to open it was it was a sign. I don't know like the exact terminology for it, but essentially you need twothirds of both chambers to agree in order to pass redistricting because it wasn't on the agenda or something similar to that. Uh Republicans fell short in part because the Senate majority leader and four of his [ __ ] cronies voted with all Democrats to kill it. This the same Senate majority leader who said on on the like during debates that South Carolina is one of the most gerrymandered states already by the way >> and he he needs to we need a vibrant Democrat party because it helps the state or whatever.

[01:46:00]>> So they killed it. So what's going to happen is Republicans in the state house are going to try to force it through.

[01:46:06]And currently they have to pressure the state governor who is against calling the special session to call a special session which would only require a majority vote in which case it would pass easily. So redistricting is not dead. All it takes now is for everyone at every level both at the constituent and politician level to chimp the [ __ ] out as hard as you can and get the governor to call a special session for redistricting. Hey, Lindsey Graham. Do do your job.

[01:46:34]>> Lindsey Graham, my life is yours.

[01:46:36]>> Nancy May. Yeah, Nancy May, stop showing your whatever on social media.

[01:46:41]>> Yeah, stop showing your uh >> Governor McMaster, if you can hear me, Governor McMaster, >> call a special session.

[01:46:48]>> Do it be and my life is yours.

[01:46:50]>> So, yeah. Um, did we talk about how Alabama is doing special primaries now for the four seats?

[01:46:55]>> So, yeah. No, they voided those results and they are they extended the deadline in about a week. There's going to be a three-day period for new filings and that was needed one because there are new seats people need to people need to make strategic choices but two um nobody filed in the seventh district so you know >> patriot >> hopefully someone will now file in that district >> or game more West Virginia results uh capital is doing awful 60% >> I mean she'll win the she's going to win the primary we just need we just need to wait for like the rural counties to come in >> it's Virginia they're rural counties.

[01:47:31]I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I meant the urb I'm sorry I meant the urban counties.

[01:47:34]>> Urban counties counties. There's like there's like three counties.

[01:47:38]>> It's like Okay. Like semi- urban like Charleston.

[01:47:40]>> Not even not even semi-urban. It's just like >> you [ __ ] know what I mean. Like Charleston, Huntington, Wheeling, uh >> the [ __ ] Morgan Town. Uh what is it?

[01:47:50]>> The population centers of West Virginia.

[01:47:52]>> Yeah. There's like there's only like 20 people.

[01:47:55]>> There's only like 20 people live here.

[01:47:58]>> Oh my gosh. I love that. It's like West Virginia. There's no urban areas. Like what the [ __ ] You know, when you think of West Virginia, I think of urban cores like Charleston.

[01:48:09]>> I mean, they were technically a lot bigger like 60 70 >> Oh, yeah. In the 60s where they had people in the coal mines. Yeah.

[01:48:15]>> 60 or 70 years ago, they were actually like a populated region. And then you know what? The woke mob and globalism sold out the entire [ __ ] region.

[01:48:24]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[01:48:24]>> And we were and everyone was they were just supposed to be okay with it because they were stupid dumb coal miners.

[01:48:29]>> And then uh and then a certain orange man pulled up anyways.

[01:48:32]>> And they they need to learn how to code.

[01:48:34]>> Yeah. Learn to code.

[01:48:35]>> And then a certain um orange man pulled up.

[01:48:38]>> And then I do like that it went from learn to code and that AI took over coding. Now it's learn to truck and then it'll eventually be learn to [ __ ] weld.

[01:48:47]>> Learn to weld.

[01:48:48]>> Like like I'm telling people telling computer science majors who lost their degree just hey buddy learn to weld.

[01:48:53]>> That's what they They're arrogant [ __ ] Not all of them, but like a lot of them are saying like just want to come.

[01:48:57]>> I think we I think we just want to like make Jenz's life a living hell because they're such ungrateful bastards.

[01:49:04]>> Real.

[01:49:04]>> I've been saying this total gen >> which which by the way according to somebody that I think like briefly worked for Casey Push and I know Casey Push's a neo neo-Nazi but still like a lot of the boomers in Ohio actually agreed with uh vase crashs over uh young people being ungrateful. Well, that's a problem. And like I get I'm not a fan of it, but you need these people to vote for you and that's the [ __ ] issue.

[01:49:27]And these idiots don't understand that there's weird >> lot of people. Yeah. I think there's just a lot of people that kind of want to make Jenz's life a living hell because they're ungrateful. They're not working hard enough. So >> is capital. Oh, she's one of the biggest rhinos out there. Big time.

[01:49:43]>> Yeah, she's like, wasn't she like pro-choice? And >> she's pro-choice of freaking I think she voted for like the the Protect Marriage Act. You think >> I would remind people that I'm pretty sure our good friend Joe Mansion was to the right of her on abortion.

[01:49:56]>> Yeah, he was. That's sad.

[01:50:01]Then he spent money on primary candidates in South Carolina. I mean, this is pathetic. If an incumbent is doing this shitty, >> okay, here's the only problem. Uh our good friend, uh, funnily enough, the the the Senate Majority Leader is LA his his last name is also Massie.

[01:50:16]>> He seemed to have he seemed to have a Massie problem. Anyways, he was reelected in 2024, so we have at least three years or two years until we can vote him out.

[01:50:24]>> Okay, how many votes does it take to expel somebody from the state legislature?

[01:50:28]>> It's a very good question.

[01:50:30]>> Uh, we have a super majority in both chambers.

[01:50:32]>> Probably two/3. But the cronies who just voted to kill redistricting are not going to vote to expel this guy for partisan reasons.

[01:50:38]>> Get the speaking of Massie. Sorry guys, but we have to reelect Thomas Massie because Cassandra McDonald said the fact Massie is at even risk of losing his seat to foreign money is proof this nation is captured by Israel.

[01:50:49]>> You know, look up look up Thomas Massiey's biggest owner. I'm so sick of this damn argument. Look it up.

[01:50:55]>> It's like a pack. Okay. Well, no, >> that's freaking JEFFREY YOS AGAIN. HIS WHOLE THING IS HE'S pro school choice.

[01:51:01]That's the cope they're using.

[01:51:03]>> Yeah. Like these dumb asses, their copium is saying, "Oh, he's only backing it because of school choice." Maybe. But um you guys do realize like he's literally the pockets like the Israeli government.

[01:51:14]>> I'm pretty sure Thomas Massie is the only Republican ever endorsed by Track Apac.

[01:51:19]>> Well, yeah. I mean, their whole thing like it's it's a [ __ ] left-wing like propaganda group. They don't like I [ __ ] hate that. Like Track Apac.

[01:51:29]Okay. Like cool. But >> by the way, Track Apac is also like extremely anti-Semitic. They give higher standards to Jewish candidates.

[01:51:38]>> Yeah. So if you're Jewish, you have to be like explicitly against every single Israeli lobby group. Not just, but you also have to be against J Street.

[01:51:46]>> They don't count Jeffrey Yas as an Israeli donor to Massie. It's horshit and they per they're inflating like Ed Golan's fundraising completely. They're basically >> Oh yeah, cuz they they are extremely biased towards their candidates, >> guys. Like that's the problem accounts.

[01:52:00]It's horshit. But that's what I deal with.

[01:52:03]>> We are Jeffrey Gerpstein.

[01:52:08]Uh, Miss Okay, hold on. People are saying in the chat, Mississippi is going to redraw. Looks like >> Mississippi got cleared to redraw, but they got to hold all new >> They can. There's precedent for it in >> allowed to I can't >> in 2006. They they did the same [ __ ] to Texas. So, >> um, uh, DDHQ is a little further ahead.

[01:52:28]Uh, 61 right now, but she is also winning every county.

[01:52:33]>> She's doing this shitty.

[01:52:35]>> Okay. Probably. Wait, is she winning Jefferson or whatever the count?

[01:52:38]>> 52% in the furthest right county.

[01:52:41]>> Okay.

[01:52:41]>> Jefferson, which is where Harper's Ferry is, which is like the progressive stronghold of West Virginia.

[01:52:46]>> Yeah. The pro Yeah. Progressive stronghold is like it's like 5840, I think.

[01:52:50]>> Yeah.

[01:52:51]>> Well, even Well, even then, Harper's Ferry is like, 200 people or something.

[01:52:54]>> Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Capital is still doing shitty, but she's going to win.

[01:52:58]>> No, she's going to win comfortably. But for an incumbent US senator, wait, like Okay. Did Trump endorse her? Endorse or >> I'm pretty sure he endorsed her.

[01:53:10]>> Yeah.

[01:53:10]>> Yeah. With a Trump endorsement? Yeah.

[01:53:12]Uh, not good. Not good at all.

[01:53:14]>> Hold on. Pritz writer for five. I reached out cuz I was curious. The Kentucky GOP internals have massed down 54 to 40. Please.

[01:53:22]>> Breaking. Breaking. Breaking. Breaking.

[01:53:24]Breaking.

[01:53:25]>> Turning Point Action has officially endorsed Bo French for Texas Railroad Commission.

[01:53:30]>> Post. Post. Post. Post. Post. Post now.

[01:53:32]Post now. Post now. Post now. Post.

[01:53:34]Sure, sure. Post this.

[01:53:37]>> This guy just added everyone without the link. What the [ __ ] Are you rap?

[01:53:39]>> Yeah. Or Yeah. So, for those who don't know, rap tends to ping everyone in the server and just not post his sources when claiming something.

[01:53:48]>> My source I made it the [ __ ] up.

[01:53:49]>> Yeah. His source >> I I have a I have a source for it.

[01:53:52]Nigerian.

[01:53:54]>> Yeah. Right here.

[01:53:55]>> Yeah.

[01:53:55]>> Bo French has just been endorsed by Turning Point. Again, Turning Point I think that would surprise a lot of people. Like everyone thought that after Kirk thought they were kind of screwed.

[01:54:04]>> This also probably confirms Trump's not going to get involved because Trump usually endorses whoever Dan Patrick endorses and Dan Patrick endorsed the Rhino incumbent but at the same time Trump usually doesn't go against Turning Point action. So >> like people understand about the um when it comes to Turning Point now I think they're going to be very strong this year. I I think they're surprised a lot of people. They're going to single-handedly save the GOP again. So we'll see. But >> can't believe Bo deport 100 million people French just got the turning point endorsement.

[01:54:36]>> Imagine saying that 10 years ago with turning point.

[01:54:38]>> What if it did he's his name was His name was Bo American. I think I'd vote for him.

[01:54:42]>> Yeah. Oh yeah.

[01:54:44]>> What if it What if his name was Fries and we referred to him by his surname and then his first name. So French fries.

[01:54:51]>> Shut the [ __ ] up.

[01:54:52]>> What if he was uh Yeah. Bo Freedom.

[01:54:54]>> Bo Freedom.

[01:54:56]>> Bo Freedom.

[01:54:57]>> All right. Um, imagine we end the year off with Alberta voting for separation, AFD winning their first outright majority, and Republicans gaining a midterms. I will laugh hysterically if that happens.

[01:55:06]>> Is AFD polling? Well, I thought they >> they're pulling really good.

[01:55:09]>> I thought they shattered or something like that. I don't remember.

[01:55:12]>> No, they're trying to anytime like they try to stop it, they just keep going up the polling. So, >> well, that's the thing. I don't think people know I don't think people understand. As soon as AFD gets their majority, they're going to be banned by the by the by the current government.

[01:55:24]>> Oh, yeah. They're going to immediately ban it.

[01:55:26]>> Yeah. And that's going to start a lot of [ __ ] in Germany. That's why nobody go to Europe.

[01:55:30]>> They've been setting the stage to ban this party for about a decade at this point. They they they keep posting, "Oh, this party's dangerous." Like, >> they're far right.

[01:55:40]>> They're far right. We're looking into banning them, but they haven't done it yet because you can't ban a party that isn't succeeding. Like, they're they're they're currently too big of a target to get rid of. Like, it would cause too much backlash. They're going to wait until they actually win. and then they're going to do it. And the backlash that's going to come with that, it's going to be unprecedented.

[01:56:04]>> Stay out of Europe. I'm going to say that >> uh I don't think people understand the [ __ ] storm that's going to happen if the uh if the outgoing government or the uh the government that's that just got voted out of power bans the party that just won and then reclaimed power. It doesn't matter how what you try to call the AFD.

[01:56:22]You try to call them Nazis, fascists, farright, Islamop >> that is fascistic to do that.

[01:56:27]>> So >> it is it is not going like I and you just know if it happens during a Republican administration, especially Trump or I Okay, I'll be honest with you. I think Vance is going to go nuclear more than Trump would if the AFD gets banned because I think Vance isn't is an unironic AFD supporter.

[01:56:46]>> I remember to an ironic AFD supporter.

[01:56:49]Like I'm pretty sure I'm pretty sure he actually endorsed the AFD >> either before or after he became vice president.

[01:56:55]>> Oh yes, because a party with a lesbian party leader is far right. That's the funniest. It's like a lesbian.

[01:56:59]>> No, no, no, no, no. Lesbian party leader with a Sri Lankan spouse. Mind you, >> it's like guys, that's far right.

[01:57:06]>> Sure. And his the other party leader is a guy and he looks kind of gay to me. I don't know if it's ever been confirmed, but it might be a lesbian dating, a brown immigrant and a gay man, a closeted gay man running the quote unquote far right party. And what are their farright opinions? Hey, you don't have to be ashamed to be German. And also, maybe we should have like >> less immigration, >> like three or four less immigrants a year. That'd be nice, I think.

[01:57:30]>> No, they're not. We got to ban them.

[01:57:32]They're going to try to ban them. And >> that that's gonna start them.

[01:57:35]>> I don't No, I don't. I'm right now if because here's the thing. They already have uh a sanatorium on it. They're not allowed to vote. Uh no party is going to is going to make a coalition with them.

[01:57:45]The the [ __ ] quote unquote conservative Democratic Union has repeatedly and their current government is a coalition with the Greens and the Labor or No, not even Labor. They're the [ __ ] Socialist Party. I think the SPD.

[01:58:00]>> Yeah.

[01:58:00]>> Yeah.

[01:58:01]>> The Democratic Socialist Party. Oh yeah, they would rather coales with the [ __ ] socialist party and the Green Party and >> over just making a a coalition with the right-wing conservatives.

[01:58:16]>> All right. President Gilbert Getty up for two. I would vote for Bo French name was [ __ ] >> [ __ ] >> Yeah. Ha funny.

[01:58:26]>> All this all these soal called farright parties are just centrist. Yeah. That's the funny thing. It's like none of these parties are far right.

[01:58:31]>> The AFDs. Okay. The AFD probably is one of the further right parties in Europe.

[01:58:35]>> That's hard saying much >> in comparison to America. Most of them would be like generic conservatives.

[01:58:43]>> Yeah.

[01:58:44]>> Like like the only like they're even more liberal. They're probably like are they pro death penalty?

[01:58:49]>> I don't know.

[01:58:49]>> Are they are they pro gun rights?

[01:58:52]>> Are they like are they even like >> European country is not pro gun?

[01:58:55]>> Do they even support like a 15week abortion ban?

[01:58:59]>> I don't know. Look everybody, >> the only the only way that >> a lot of European parties are more conservative than the GOP on one issue and that's legal immigration. Uh the go the GOP has come a long way on immigration in the last 10 or 15 years, but they're still to the left of a lot of German farright or quote unquote farright parties because the GOP is the we want a big beautiful door on our big beautiful wall. While like a majority of most Europeans, not the politicians, they pull Europeans. They want less legal migration. They want deportation of legal immigrants.

[01:59:36]>> They want remigration.

[01:59:38]>> Some of them want Yeah. Some of them want moratoriums and remigration and that makes them to the right of the GOP.

[01:59:44]But that's that's about it. On every most other issues, they're to the left.

[01:59:47]>> For those who think we're exaggerating, look at the Denmark Socialist Party.

[01:59:50]Like look that up.

[01:59:52]The freaking Socialist Party or it might not be socialist. It's like the far left party in Denmark. Like they're in charge and they're like saying we got to ban all immigrants. We got deport everybody.

[02:00:01]It's like that's the [ __ ] they're put in Denmark.

[02:00:04]>> So >> Yep. And uh like the GOP, not the GOP, the European right-wing parties are like I'm not gonna say they're openly racist, but they are very openly anti-migrant of any any persuasion, legal or illegal.

[02:00:20]Asylum seekers, [ __ ] people fleeing war like these, they are openly against them. They are openly nationalistic towards, you know, their native population, which should be the bare [ __ ] minimum, but it's not because, >> no, it's racist.

[02:00:35]>> The West is the only country is the the West is the only part of the world too cucked to be proud of their own native population and to prioritize them over foreigners. You'll never see any kind of behavior like this from the third world of the global south.

[02:00:47]>> All right, >> anyways, go ahead.

[02:00:49]>> So, I think that's kind of it for tonight. We kind of went over the fame.

[02:00:51]They already called her capital. She shot the bed a little bit, but still kind of funny that she still won, but yeah, she didn't do too good. But yeah, so overall kind of a um yeah, I don't know. Not really election ice cream.

[02:01:03]Kind of just set a prediction. So yeah, right now I'm saying 5248. Again, this could all change. We're in what? May [ __ ] could happen in a month. We don't with gas prices, don't oil prices. And I still think Trump has something up his sleeve for this year. That's my hot take. He has a 70 chess move plan.

[02:01:19]Totally.

[02:01:20]That's totally real.

[02:01:22]I don't know. We'll see. Uh, do you think Kur was going to resign? He might resign and say, "Fuck you." And they call an election. We'll see. But, >> uh, yeah, I think I talked about this earlier. He's currently using He's currently hedging his unpopularity in telling them, "If you try to force me out, I will end your political careers by having you lose in the election." He is like, that is some [ __ ] next level [ __ ] And I honestly as hell. I love it.

[02:01:45]>> I have to respect it at least a little bit.

[02:01:48]>> I love it. He's the maybe the first politician who leverages the fact that he's unpopular to stay in >> to his advantage. Oh my gosh. It's kind to be fair that's kind of what Biden did to be fair. But I don't know.

[02:02:11]>> Hua 67.

[02:02:16]>> Sorry. You guys, you guys. Um, what kind of beer do you guys drink? Brother Lights Light, Michel.

[02:02:22]>> You know what beers I drink? We went to get beer like on my >> uh DB for five. Hey rap, look up an um on Google article. Um I looked it up and I don't see anything. It's I don't know.

[02:02:34]Um it's a paid it's a paid thing so I'm not going to do that.

[02:02:37]>> Of course he's in danger. He's at like 40% of the vote in the internals.

[02:02:40]>> Yeah.

[02:02:40]>> All right. So I think that's it everybody for tonight. I think we're end the stream here. If you guys did enjoy, smash the like button down below.

[02:02:46]Subscribe, share with your friends, and of course, join the channel today. And uh yeah, I think that's it.