One Of The Strongest El Nino's On Record Is On The Way...

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:01]The El Nino has arrived. If we take a look at the transition over the last couple of months, we can definitely see these sea surface temperature anomalies out there into the equator Pacific has rapidly warmed as the reds are starting to kind of take over as those warmer anomalies com continue to build. We take a look just from the last couple of months and we back in February we were still solidly in that leninia criteria right below the negative.5 but it's been a steady rise trending towards Enzo neutral and now that we've been above the 0.5° Celsius for about a month now we're subtly into that weak El Nino type criteria. Now, of course, what does all that mean? Right? So, this is kind of where we were being in Leninia and the typically leninia type setups. You tend to have more drier type patterns taking shape across the south. And if you look at the overall US drought index, that's pretty noticeable as drought has really taken over across the south, much of the southwest, much of the southern plains, getting into a good part of the southeast and trending up the coast. But the wetter periods are the polar jet and those areas are not even actually in a drought right now. We're going to be starting to see that transition into El Nino. So some of these, you know, are going to more or less flip over time. Of course, it won't happen overnight. This will be over the course of many months, but the subtropical jetream will become a lot more active and eventually will bring tropical rains and deep moisture back into areas of the southwest, a good part of the southern plains, much of the southeast and coming up the eastern seabboard. While much of the northern branch of the jetream, the polar jet will become a lot less relaxed and some of these areas that are drier wetter than average now will become drier than average, you know, over time. But one of the big things that's going to be impacted, you know, at least in the short term, is the humidity values are going to be greatly increasing across a good part of the uh east of the Continental Divide. We're going to be seeing the dry line really start to take over. And to the left of the dry line where it's been continued bone dry, you're under excessive fire conditions and rapidly spreading wildfires. But just to the west of that, where that sharp gradient will be, that's where we're expecting supercell thunderstorms to explode with these disturbances and before a cold front. So, the moisture surge is going to be alive and well. And with the polar jet lifting all the way into Canada, that puts the moisture well into Minnesota, Wisconsin, back into Michigan, where they're going to be starting to see widespread severe weather over the last next couple of days. So, we'll break it down day by day. For today, it's an active day, folks. We do have an enhanced risk across a good part of the Plains that much of Nebraska and even an elevated tornado threat and and hatched risk.

[00:03:13]gave it a 15% hatched risk. We could be seeing some dangerous tornadoes. Unfortunately, across Nebraska, into Iowa, as well as into areas of Minnesota, and then further south, we also have that tornado risk along the dry line into Kansas and portions of western Oklahoma. And yes, big-time large hail producers with they could be looking at some serious baseball type stuff with softball size hail's likely not out of the question. And that only continues tomorrow ahead of the cold front again on Monday. Another dangerous day. In fact, an upgraded moderate risk for all three modes of severe storms. And again, an elongated hatched risk and even a SIG 2 hatched risk. Those could be even the stronger tornadoes, the EF2, the EF3 type tornadoes getting into some serious hellstones down there in Kansas. But softballsized hell definitely not out of the question. It's just a dangerous active day right along the dry line. You got winds dipping all the way down into Oklahoma and extending well north into a good part of Michigan and Wisconsin as well as into Michigan. And that lifts all the way up into the Great Lakes. And then even on Tuesday, we'll still have an elongated risk. This is again ahead of a cold front. So, we could be looking at more significant weather unfolding now dipping into portions of Texas, but back into Oklahoma again, into Missouri, as well as into Illinois, and yes, extending all the way into southern Canada here. And look at the cold front.

[00:04:51]I mean, this is actually a fairly decent cold front for this time of year. This is one of the reasons why we're getting such severe storms. So, it's going to start off with an active dry line. We'll have multiple areas of low pressure.

[00:05:03]Then we'll have the stronger cold front that'll provide all the lift mechanisms to produce widespread severe thunderstorms. And now we're talking it's going to be, you know, from the northwest down to the southeast. So ahead in the warm sector, that's where you're going to be seeing the heavier rain. So outside of that, as it pushes south, we're going to be starting to see heavy rain likely starting to form back down towards St. Louis through Arkansas, south southeastern portions of Oklahoma.

[00:05:31]And now that does include Dallas Fort Worth back into central Texas as well as southeast Texas during the day on Tuesday, Tuesday night. And then as the front will continue to push southbound and likely stall out somewhere in this vicinity down here in central Texas right along the front, that's where likely going to be seeing the heaviest rainfall. But that extends well in through Virginia, through Kentucky, back down towards Tennessee, as well as into Arkansas. And yes, much of Texas will be under the gun for showers and thunderstorms and some of the heavier rainfall on Wednesday. And it doesn't stop uh Wednesday into Thursday. Going into Friday, we'll start to see more rain as that front start to back up and actually retreats back up as a warm front. So now again puts this whole area Texas, South Texas, you know, North Central Texas, Louisiana into Mississippi back into the heavier rainfall during the day on Friday. And if you take it a step further than that, you can definitely see we're starting to see the beginning stages of a uh El Nino type look with the more active subtropical jetream kind of taking over.

[00:06:45]So this is your Memorial weekend heading into your upcoming Memorial weekend next weekend with for the 6 to 10 day outlook. Yes, puts above average rains again over Texas. Now we're trending into portions of air, you know, uh New Mexico, getting into portions of Arizona, extending across the southern flank of the US down to the southeast and portions of Virginia and North Carolina. And notice the northern branch of the jetream not definitely not as active and it's becomes even more pronounced if we're looking at the 8 to 14 see the building steps of El Nino type look as we'll have a conveyor belt of moisture with these disturbances traveling along the more active subtropical jet. So all these areas will be slowly, you know, over time over the course of months will be eating away at this drought that they're been under for an extremely long time. And the polar jet will become a lot less active. So you'll start to see more of these areas will start more or less drying out and start to see more below average precipitation uh kind of, you know, going forward. I mean, look at the look at the jetreams, folks. This is this is a true snapshot as we head into that last week of May.

[00:08:08]And this is why the Climate Prediction Center has kind of their outlook how it is because really just implying that jetream lifts well north and the subtropical jet more or less just kind of takes over with these multiple disturbances. Now it's got all these warmer waters, newly warm waters to travel over and that's going to pick up some of that precipitation and kind of dump it inland if you will, you know, over the course of the last week of May.

[00:08:36]And if we extend even even yesterday, the climate prediction center updated the 3 to four week outlook and again has that kind of look of the El Nino type look kind of taking shape with a more active subtropical jetream. you tend to have below average or even just average like temperatures across the south and to the north where the polar jet is a lot less active. You get a lot less rain. You're going to be warmer than average. And if you look at the look at the map on the precipitation front, we've got these systems coming down for the Illutian Islands, right? That'll put Alaska above average. Obviously Hawaii will be above average rains and again much of the southern flank of the US will likely be above average having that El Nino type look really starting to take over. You know, of course, the deeper we get and it's going to be really starting to show its cards once we get into fall and especially this upcoming winter because once once now that it's here, it's going to be around for a while, right? all the way through fall, through winter, through next spring, even could be next summer. So, it's going to be a while now that it starts. It's still building and become one of the strongest on record. And then it has to come back down again. So, it's going to be an El Nino type setup for over the course of the next 12, if not maybe 18 months. And one of the things that's going to happen is the the you know with the Pacific and now that hurricane season is officially here we're going to be starting to seeing more tropical type development taking advantage again of these above average rains persisting over time. We'll likely have these little areas of low low-level spedups and try to get early season development. And that's one of the reasons why we're expecting a more active monsoon season this year as we get deeper into tropical storm season, tropical weather season, you know, heading into June, July, and August and into the some of the summer months. So guys, I appreciate you watching. Do like this video. Definitely hit the subscribe button and catch the next update where I protect you before and after the storm.