The AI infrastructure boom is creating significant investment opportunities across hardware, software, and energy sectors, with companies like Dell demonstrating how infrastructure providers can achieve substantial revenue growth (88% Q1 increase) and stock appreciation (40%+ gains) when they successfully position themselves to capture the growing demand for AI compute resources. The market is becoming more discerning about AI winners, rewarding companies with tangible AI orders and backlog strength while being skeptical of those with only AI-related revenue without clear differentiation. This trend is driving a shift toward on-premise AI infrastructure as organizations seek to reduce costs and gain competitive advantages, creating opportunities beyond traditional hyperscalers in areas like memory, storage, networking, and energy infrastructure.
Yahoo Finance Live: Daily Market Coverage - May 29, 2026 9AM-11AM (ET)Ajouté :
Yeah, in the harlots of our time.
>> That's right.
>> Welcome to Yog Finance's Morning Brief.
I'm Julie Hyman. That is Miles Udland.
And um we have actually a lot to talk about today. This is This feels like an unusually newsy Friday, doesn't it?
>> Well, I do think some of it was perhaps set up by the fact that I walked in yesterday and said, "I've already decided what we're doing on Friday. No need to discuss Friday's rundown." So then of course we had three developments all of which uh came in the last 24 hours and all of which I do believe bear consideration.
>> Yes, I think that is correct. You didn't you didn't argue you didn't quibble with the the choices then that we made. Um so the first of these is Dell >> and um >> what I find remarkable about not just Dell but like the moment that we're in.
What keeps happening is you get these companies that have been around for a while. Their business has looked a certain way. You thought you understood the change in their business and the increase in demand and then it just comes out and like smacks you in the face with that it is more than that.
>> Yes.
>> And and so Dell was sort of the latest example with um what first quarter sales up 88%.
>> Yeah.
>> And beat by 23%.
>> So I I did a couple things with Dell here. The first that I found um quite interesting is looking at their results uh over the last couple of years. So I have here the results from their fiscal 2024. So this was results posted in the spring of 2023.
>> Uh the infrastructure solutions group had net revenue of $7.6 billion.
Yesterday the company reported the infrastructure solutions group had revenue of $29 billion. The entire company's revenue in the first quarter of its fiscal 2024 was 20 billion 20.9 billion uh which is of course smaller than just the infrastructure group posted yesterday. So you know 43.8 8 billion for the company in the latest quarter now guiding to 167 billion uh or you know yeah 167 is the midpoint of their guidance range but I also did the exercise because I was thinking about conversation we had with Micron about valuations what we do here >> so Dell guiding to $17.31 in gap EPS for this year into the quarter the company was trading at 24 times revenue if you multiply 1731* 24 you get 415 stock is trading at 420 23 this morning. So, it's not a rerating, but it is to your point like I guess I'm a little surprised that the the whisper number wasn't that there would be a raise like this, a guide like this, but it is merely and you know, stocks up 40% for a company that's this large, but it is merely keeping pace with what companies believed the com, you know, what the multiple was on its business.
They're just literally saying, "Well, listen, if you're going to rate your EPS up that much, then I've got to write my, you know, then I need to put a higher stock price on it." But yeah, it's surprising how many of these companies uh that hadn't happened for because this has been a recurring theme now for so many businesses in the last few months.
>> The other thought I had as I was looking at these numbers and I know it is apples and oranges, but I'll I'll make my point in a moment is yesterday we were talking about how Salesforce touted its AI related revenue that is running on an annual basis at $1.2 billion. And then you have Dell coming out and saying we booked $24.4 billion bill 24.4 billion in AI orders. um in the quarter alone compared with 1.2 billion in AI for Salesforce for the whole year. And again, I know it's apples and oranges.
We're talking about sales, we're talking about software versus the infrastructure. This is still the infrastructure play, but it speaks to if I am figuring out where I want to put my money.
>> Yeah.
>> As an investor, do I want to put it in that infrastructure play or even if SAS is not dying, okay, I get it. But like where do you want to put your money?
Where is the growth happening right now and probably for the next couple of years?
>> Yeah. And it's also like um is is a hundred billion dollars better or is $1 billion better, right? Because 24, you know, that's a hundred billion dollar run rate versus a $1 billion run rate.
And I think it also speaks, you know, and I'll I'll play along here in terms of bringing this back to SAS, the apples and oranges though, is like >> this is the money that's out there in terms of the investment that's being made, uh, in terms of the opportunity that's available to businesses. again a company like Dell saying we've got a hundred billion dollar run rate of orders for AI. So when other companies that are trying to play this theme come out and say oh we're seeing a billion in ARR or we're this this here it's like that's fine but like there's a hundred billion dollars out there in annual orders you know coming into Dell. Dell just posted a quarter where the revenue for the business was almost $50 billion and this is a company three years ago that had quarterly revenue closer to 20.
So they've 100xed their overall revenue.
Their AI related um revenue is rising closer to 200%. So it does show like I think in a in a weird way it makes the challenge even sharper for companies that are not Dell like not in this memory trade, not playing compute directly, not playing infrastructure directly because there is um so much energy being spent like literal energy but like investment energy intensity as as the CFOs would say towards that opportunity that to not have uh a better path to finding your way in is becoming more and more challenging. if you're not posting a quarter like Dell >> and I guess you could argue okay well maybe there is more upside opportunity in the one that only has a billion whether it's software or hardware or whatever but the road map like >> 100x off 100 billion >> and the road map is quite clear here right whereas when there's other situations the road map is not quite as clear so that's that's what we're seeing by the way the other thing that caught my eye this morning um as we're speaking about memory and all of this stuff is an analyst over at Susuana um came out and that's Medie Hoseni um came out and with a new price target on both Micron and SanDisk um and the other memory players by the way his price target on um Micron is$,750.
>> Mhm.
>> Um his price target on SanDisk I believe is 3250 and basically he's saying that the again to speak to the road map thing that >> is this for the S&P or for Micron? I'm kidding.
Um he basically says prices are just going to be rising more than we thought for longer than we thought.
>> Y >> um and so that's that's the distillation of what he's talking about.
>> Uh you know what we haven't seen yet and you said those numbers I was like hold on. So you know just those are big obviously per share price for a stock is arbitrary doesn't matter.
>> Um where are the stock splits?
>> Good question. I don't know >> that's it. The other thing I would So the other point I would make uh less probably about Dell more so about these other companies that have just like gone crazy. Y >> um they're not prepared for this like any more than we you know I think in some cases the companies were surprised as much as the market was surprised >> and so just like like even Nvidia went through I think we can say some growing pains in the beginning when they were like holy mo like even if Jensen was a visionary and saw it >> mechanically as that moves its way through the company to everything from setting financial targets to deciding employees are we how are we going to split the stock? What do we do when this happens?
>> Those companies are going through that right now, which is both exciting and terrifying, I'm sure, internally as they're trying to like to figure that out because also, >> you don't know how long your stock's going to be doing that.
>> No, I I I know. I'm just looking at the Sandish chart. I mean, stock's up 4,000% in the last year. If you're a director level employee who had x amount of RSUs, yada yada yada, like, you know, that's part of your compensation. I don't know.
you you could be looking at a seven figure income where you thought you were going to have like 50 grand and it's like oh it's a million dollars now like that that that changes a lot of things.
>> Yeah.
>> Um and multiply that by all the people who work there down the business. That's a good point. Um well it's interesting cultural point too because you continue to see more and more discussion uh leaking out on places like LinkedIn and a lot of it makes its way to X um of the feeling that people have inside of certain of the Mag Sevens where it doesn't feel as good. It doesn't feel as manic. it feels like there's just something isn't quite adding up. Um whereas I think if you're working at Dell right now, you're like, "Well, my phone's ringing off the hook. My order book is booked out for multiple years.
Uh the business has never been growing faster and the stock's up a zillion percent." And it's just like a totally different side of the AI trade. Yeah.
And I don't necessarily think that those need to resolve in one way like being on being a developer or an engineer where it feels bad to be an AI because you're getting, you know, clotted your way out of a job and whatever versus someone who's in um, you know, enterprise sales selling server racks who's like this is the greatest thing that's ever happened to me. I don't think those have to like converge to like one wins, one loses, but it is notable how how strong those um, kind of centers of energy are within the AI trade. It kind of reminds me, it all brings me back to like the Ben Thompson point, which is like because there's so much money at stake, everything is so charged. Just everything with AI is just so heightened because as we will just as we will talk about right now, uh the money is just so big.
>> I one final note, it it makes my my mind goes to like how is this affecting like the Bay Area uh real estate market like are are like the Sandis people coming in and like scooping up houses. I don't think you could get a house I don't think you could get a house in Athetherton 10 years ago, 20 years ago, let alone today, but yeah, I'm sure it's nuts.
>> Okay, so that brings us to the next um which is all of these IPOs that we're waiting for. We learned that Anthropic is worth more and SpaceX maybe is going to be a little bit less when it comes to market. So, Anthropic raised $65 billion in a new funding round. a total valuation $965 billion. At the same times that Bloomberg is reporting that the max um sale or the max valuation for SpaceX that they're aiming for will be 1.8 trillion instead of two trillion.
>> Yeah.
>> So, you know, it's I don't you know >> I'm unmoved I'm unmoved by SpaceX.
>> You're unmoved by the news on SpaceX?
>> Yeah. I'm like okay. Yeah. But well, we know how the business is, right? like the uh the business of do you have the latest incremental scoop from the road show about you know very competitive beat anyway um >> I more thought about it going back to our earlier conversation of um how do you price these things how much can the market take um so that as I saw these two headlines that was kind of what I was thinking about okay so anthropic is $965 billion like what does that look like when people finally get a crack at it >> so a couple things anthropic uh the flipping has happened in AI is now worth more and OpenAI at least on their latest fundraising. Okay.
>> Um you know because OpenAI was 862 on their latest uh post money valuations.
This is 965 post money. Um what is notable about the two different one fund raise that actually happened with Anthropic and one that may happen with SpaceX dollar amount roughly the same.
So 65 raised from Anthropic privately 75 is what SpaceX uh appears to be targeting um you know and up to in their IPO. Uh and it I think the the thing with the SpaceX IPO, the question that it will ask the market when as we get through the next month as the road shows happening when when it comes to market um is probably the sharpest yet of do you need to go public to get a certain amount of capital. I mean anthropic is essentially saying there is no limit to the amount of money that you can raise in private markets uh that is available to you. The whole point of public markets in the beginning was that it's the best place to get capital. I think it still is and still should be and it's a more dynamic way uh for markets to price than to have private transactions.
But if SpaceX needed $75 billion, they didn't have to go public to get it. Um and so it'll be interesting to see how the market takes that. It's like it it is asking the question and you know this comes up in private credit like uh financial adviser type situations >> where you know you're a wealthyish individual they're pitching you private credit and you're like why am I getting pitched this didn't couldn't someone else buy this first so the thing with SpaceX is the public markets like so wait why why are we do >> you're trying to offload your your thing on me >> why am I putting the 75 up because you just went around I mean Anthropic here has uh you know funds that have been in the company for many years now coming up with money to you give it 65 billion you know altimeter Dragon Box Sequoia leading the round um I believe all those companies had already invested in anthropic and so or all those firms and so yeah I think that's that's another I mean I know this is the question that's being asked every day in public markets but like that to me is the other point around this >> in other words who are the bag holders >> well I mean I think we know who they are or who they're going to be and it >> it's a little yeah I I think the thing with the anthropic rays as well maybe for their own go public process Mh.
>> is like you can basically get unlimited capital in public in private markets. So whenever they do go public, it's going to be like why why me, you know, right?
As a public market, but the market as a whole will ask why why am I getting this bag?
>> Um on the on the flip side, like as we talk about these companies coming public and and like crowding out, right?
There's this whole debate over whether they're going to take demand from other stuff. Y >> um I was thinking about that as I was looking at some notes for a guest I'm talking to um in uh in the 10 a.m. hour today who is a substacker named Lex Soolin who also is a venture capital guy who does a lot of fintech and he um and this is from a note earlier this year but he talked about all of the fintech IPOs that were waiting for and he lists them and I'm like gosh I haven't even thought about these stripe plaid >> um ramp he talks about Kraken he talks about like where are all these guys now cuz some of them have sort of talked about it but then delayed some of it but all of that chatter on all these other IPOs that supposed to be huge in what would be a normal environment.
>> We are not even talking about those right now. Um because so much attention's on this other stuff and maybe they're waiting for these other guys to go public and then they'll they'll come out, but like what will be left at that point? I don't know.
>> Well, you know, Stripe is an interesting one in that bucket. I don't think they're ever going to go public.
>> Maybe not.
>> And like I the way that you know John and Patrick Collison talk about the company, the way they've raised money over time, like what they do with it, like I just don't think Stripe's ever going to go public. But I >> mean, but to the point you just made like >> why would they absolutely absolutely >> if they can raise it in the private market.
>> I I sort >> the only thing that would change was if something dramatically changed with the funding ability in the private market, >> right? But you know what does Matt Lavine say? Private markets are the new public markets. I mean, he's been saying that for 10 years, you know, and here we are in 2026 and it's still true. And that was like Matt started writing that in the context of Uber raising a couple billion dollars instead of going public again 10 years ago, right? Um, and now the dollar amounts are just bigger, but the dynamics are the same. Um, and I do sort of wonder like just with venture in general, I think people who are in venture are a lot less enthusiastic about being in it because it is kind of just an institutional asset class. It's not quite as sexy as I think a lot of the books uh make it seem when you hear the stories from the '9s and the 2000, etc., etc. Um, and I think this is a this is part of that as well. Like your job is kind of just fundraising, getting institutional LPS, a lot of dollar amounts. It doesn't have that moonshot quality. And part of staying private means that the public market is now going to be a little bit less excited to get their hands on your company because again, you're like, "Oh, well, our series our series T will be the public."
>> Well, especially Oh, thank you. Thank you. You raised, you know, 10 rounds now. I >> especially if there are, as Matt Lavine wrote about more recently, more and more ways to bet on the private market. Yeah.
>> You know, like the prediction markets that are like, where is this thing going to price? what are they going to raise in the most late in the latest funding round or >> um can can you tokenize that private company and invest in it somehow? Yeah.
You know, all on the blockchain.
>> Yeah. Whatever it is. Um there are going to be more ways for people to do that.
So >> more ways for early employees to cash out as well. So there you go.
>> Exactly. Um >> all right. What what Okay.
>> How would you have maxed your tokens if you had to token max? Because there's one anecdote in the Matty Mills report from Axios that we're going to talk about that I think everybody latched on to which made me think about the conversation we had of like what would be the silliest way you'd max your tokens.
>> What was I can't remember what the example you brought up was that was like >> I don't know put in put in like your your lunch order every day and analyze it or something. That would be fun.
>> Uh mine was I would take every Slack someone sent me put it into Claude or have an agent put it into Claude and say you are Miles.
just to respond to a Slack that's like, "Hey, can you meet in five or whatever it is, >> but people are apparently checking the weather using their their claw?"
>> Sure. This this would be a very Miles application for it as well. You're a weather you're a weather nerd. You're >> a weather is great. Um yeah, I I think the uh so again story uh around how many uh one company as reported by Maddie had spent uh $500 million on tokens um in a single month.
>> Rumors rumors are that it's a certain company with a three-letter cloud product. Um and and then the question was like so do you think that the you know in this case uh anthropic on the other side do you think they booked that as a 6 billion in ARR >> even though it's a even though it's a one time bumply and it's not going to happen again. Um, but I am loving this this whole genre of reporting around all the different ways that companies and it feels like, >> you know, inside of a typical tech company, right? You've got your your your technical folks, your product, your design, and your finance teams. And like it feels like the finance teams are doing a run here after the first quarter books closed, getting into Q2 being like, you guys are using how many tokens? like there was really not a concept from different parts of the business on how expensive the compute was going to be if you are telling people to go token max and now you have uh businesses sometimes uh you know kind of putting their name behind it sometimes more anonymously being like oh yeah we're blowing through this budget and it just isn't making sense anymore.
>> Yes. Well, you know I have been you know I put posted on LinkedIn just saying the whole thing was really dumb which seems really obvious.
>> Yeah. to me and I think to us that it is dumb.
>> Token maxing that is >> token maxing is dumb. Yeah. Um and so I you know it makes sense that companies are realizing that. I mean I'm happy that they're realizing it relatively quickly that it doesn't that it that it doesn't make financial sense nor you know if your goal is to increase productivity this is not the right way to do that. I think it's pretty clear.
So, it makes sense that that people are doing it. And as we talked about, like if if the whole thesis is you have to spend less on labor because your people are more productive, but you're spending $500 million on tokens, then the math does not work in that particular case.
>> Um, there was an anecdote someone was talking about like, you know, oh, the the new role of a CEO is not going to be managing people, it's going to be managing agents. This was like months ago and I remember I saw that and I was like >> that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Like like have you ever met a CEO?
>> They don't work. Like it's not they don't work but it's like that's not the job.
>> You know and it's like the Jeremy Iron scene, right? Like what's my job? My job is to know if the music is playing or not. The job of of of people who lead organizations is not to like go through their emails in a more efficient way, right? It's to make big strategic decisions. And the whole notion of we're going to replace our labor with agents is bringing all kinds of leaders uh you know whether it's IC's etc etc down to like the most granular level of like workerbe stuff and it's like that is not how companies that is not how companies function.
>> Well and again it comes back to that's not an efficient use of >> people's time talents or like that's right. Exactly. Exactly. So, um, yeah, it feels like you have I mean, companies still have plenty of air cover to do a layoff and say it's AI, but in terms of what that's going to result in, it's probably just going to result in fewer people. It's not really right now tangibly going to be like, oh, and we got so much more out of it. It's like, you know what, we looked around, we said maybe we have 10% too many people, we're going to cut them and we're going to move on. But like the idea that we're reshaping all these different, it feels like we are just not quite there yet. I think there are cases of it, but I Yes, it doesn't feel like wholesale that we are that we are there yet. Okay. And our final bit of business, >> yes, >> is to talk about Kevin Worsh.
>> Kevin Worsh. Yeah, we're >> still talking.
>> Well, okay. This was the thing I came up with yesterday, but I do want to talk about this.
>> I think we can still keep it.
>> Well, the concept was like, all right, power ranking, Kevin Worsh's biggest problems that he is going to face now that he is chair of the Federal Reserve.
Um, and I said this to John the other day or yesterday when I walked in. John immediately goes, "Oh, Trump." And I was like, "No, no, no. I think Trump is his least important problem. I think Kevin Worsh's most important problem, which we discussed yesterday, is inflation."
Because inflation is now staring Worsh and the balance of the Fed. And as you noted, there's Fed officials seemingly every day whose colleagues, whether it's a regional bank president or a colleague on the on the Fed board, you know, Waller, I think, spoke last week on this where they're like, >> I mean, yeah, the case for cutting rates right now is is not just off the table, but the case for raising rates is now looking a lot more clear and markets have a 51% chance of rates being higher at the end of the year.
>> Yes. Even though I don't agree with the other side, be that as it may.
>> I I will I I'm going to tie myself in a little bit of a knot saying this, but >> you have 90 seconds.
>> You could still argue that Trump is the biggest problem because if we didn't go into Iran, like in a way if if you if you think of him as the if policy is the inflation wild card, as it has been over the last year between tariffs, although that didn't play out quite as anticipated, but still caused inflation in certain parts of the economy. Um, you know, oil is the big feed through. Yeah.
>> So, you know, you could argue not but not in the way that we meant, right, >> where it's direct his direct, you know, pressure on the Fed. It's more like his pressure on things that cause inflation.
Yeah.
>> Is what I meant. Um, Miles Udlin, this is your last day doing the show with me.
That's right.
>> Big reveal, big announcement. Um, so that's, you know, we had I'm sorry we didn't do all the things that you planned yesterday, but we still have fun talking about the things that we planned for today. No, I think it was in keeping with the spirit of the show that I would come in the day before and have a bunch of ideas about what tomorrow's show would be and then we wouldn't actually that wouldn't be the way that it played out.
>> So, one day maybe you'll have to come back as a guest and we'll do the the best finance our favorite finance movies.
>> I think that I think you and I can do that over lunch out in Suburban instead.
I don't know. I don't think the audience is going to get that one unfortunately.
>> No, they can um you know >> they're not going to get it from me.
They may get it from still maybe they what that what your favorite one is >> just like like a discussion about the best movies in finance that might be something you know you I feel like Jake has probably seen a lot of the finance I mean I was talking to John yesterday I said is it time to come back in front of the camera for John he has you know he's spent plenty of time on this >> what was his A perfect murder which isn't yeah on the face of it a finance movie but it has finance >> well it that that that pitch for Perfect Murder being the best finance movie is a real like you know oh Die Hard's the best Christmas movie it had that kind of energy >> yes it did I liked I I enjoyed the pitch. I I enjoyed the argument.
>> That's how it's done. That's the bit.
That's the bit.
>> All right.
>> So, all right. It's been uh it's been great.
>> Yes, it has.
>> Thanks for all the laughs.
>> Thank you, Miles. All right. Brian Sazzy's up next with opening bid.
Heat. Heat.
Heat.
Heat.
Down.
Down.
Down.
Take a baby.
Heat. Heat.
Heat. Heat.
Honestly, on this Friday, all I have for you right now is Dell because what I've watched all morning long on Yahoo Finance Alphas is damn near mind-blowing. The stock is up nearly 40% after a monster quarter in guidance.
Here's what Dell COO Jeff Clark had to say on the earnings call to explain all this. When we look at the demand environment that we are operating in today, it's very different than historical. Uh we think of it as several factors that are driving demand.
Clearly, what you said, there is a pull in component. There's a buy ahead.
Customers want to ensure they have access to supply. They're concerned about raising prices and they're acting.
Customers are upgrading their edge.
They're upgrading the infrastructure.
They're looking for more capable PCs as a Gent workloads make their way to the edge. They're looking to consolidate space, power, and cooling to drive efficiency.
WTF? I am one part stunned, one part not stunned by the Dell quarter. The stunned me still remembers buying a Dell computer to use up uh for my dialup AOL internet service in 2000. My compact computers always broke. Those computers were absolute crap, which probably explains why compact no longer exists.
But the not so stunned me remembers talking to Michael Dell a year or so ago about the company's pivot to AI infrastructure and how it would eventually pay off big time. That payoff Dell told me about has now arrived in a major way and it's paying off at other companies that have invested aggressively. See the explosion in snowflake stock price this week. Here on the OB uh round table, Art Hogan alongside our very own Anzere and uh our Jar Pickery in the house. part. Um I'm looking for some smart analysis uh today at least for me and I don't have it. I'm just stunned by this Dell quarter. Like when you saw these numbers, you see the stock price reaction like what are you thinking here on a morning like this?
Because this is a very this is a big tech moment.
>> Yeah, I'll tell you this. One of the things that we continue to find in the marketplace is that we are surprised by what we didn't think of, right? And we didn't think of how much storage and and and memory we were going to need in the data center as large language models progressed down the line. And we didn't remember how much Dell had transformed its business going back to late 23 into 24 to be in the server business. That was extremely necessary in the data center. So clearly a transformation that we forgot about. But the most important thing to me in this massive move today is that the PE ratio for Dell went from a trailing of 36 times to the next 12 months 23 times. So 13 multiple turns after the earnings report just showing you how successful they've been in deploying their server business which is now larger than all of their other businesses combined.
>> Well R what does that tell you? I mean that multiple compression I don't want to get all wonky on a Friday. It's been a long week, but to me that should say that's the street is still I guess underpricing the earnings power of a company like Dell even considering the 40% pop in their stock price today.
>> 100%. The same thing happened over the course of the last three years when you look at Nvidia. Every time they report their multiple go down 10 multiple turns, the same thing's happening for Dell right now because we're just coming to the realization these guys are actually increasing their revenues at a break neck speed and along with that their earnings. So they they uh actually did a great job uh at holding margins in line. So I think one of the things that tells us is when you start to hear people being concerned about being in a bubble when they see parabolic moves like this, it's important to take a step back and say, "Oh, at what valuation?"
And a 23 multiple for a Dell computer, that's obviously quite uh integral in all of the AI buildup. It seems extremely reasonable.
>> Jared, we learned a very important lesson this week, and I'm sure you picked up on it as well. I did, and I'm sure Nez, you guys picked up on it, too.
Um, the market is now really discerning hardcore AI winners. In the mo camp, you have Snowflake talking about acceleration in their business because of a meaningful acceleration AI orders.
You're having a massive guidance raised out of Dell. Those stocks got rewarded in big ways. And the other side of it, you have a company like Salesforce. I mean, they were purchased $27 billion of stock and told investors on a video podcast call, whatever they want to call it, they have a billion dollars in a annual current revenue for AI. Nobody could care less. I mean, they can care less. They want clear clear winners.
>> Uh that is absolutely true. So Dell is proving that com compute it's getting bought here. Snowflake that data is getting used. Uh they have their own proprietary algorithm, their own LLM, but they're kind of agnostic. You can use any within their business model. I think the big AI scare was about are these intermediate intermediate companies like Snowflake are they going to get edged out? Are they just going to get replaced by claude itself? And you still need that layer. You need people thinking about how to deploy this. You know, the AI jobs. Yes, AI is killing off jobs, but it's also increasing jobs.
There's all kinds of new thinking that has to go into business planning here.
Let's go to the Wi-Fi Interactive one second here. I just want to show you what's going on with Dell. It is up 31%.
That is your shocking number. 100 points. And I'll show you the year-to- date chart. At 929, this year-to- date number was 150%. Now, it's magically 232%. So yeah, this is an incredible story here. But here's Snowflake. This happened yesterday. Snowflake just turned positive after earnings. And I don't want to give away the farm, but you see number three ticker there. Guess what? Ford is also an AI. Well, it's an energy story. And that ties into AI as well. So across the board, it's is the rubber meeting the road here. Are people getting paid for AI? And that's separating the winners and the losers, I think.
>> Jared, good point. Go back to that Dell chart if you can, Jared. Did that is has Dell taken out the the dot highs? Oh, let's go to a max chart because I was looking at this too. Dell uh this ticker only goes back to what 2018 2017. So there was uh so this is basically a new company. So the Dell that we knew from the dotcom era that did not continue.
But what this clearly shows is that since that 2718 uh recapitalization, new IPO, whatever it was, the stock is up 3,000%. So I remember, dude, you're getting a Dell. It annoyed me too. But this is a different company, my friend.
>> It is. No, it's a good point on on the on them coming back to market. I I look, admittedly, I forgot that this is live TV. I I can't remember everything. And as you know, you and I have all been talking about um really all week if this is a bubble. But when I look at uh when I look at what Dell is reporting, even a snowflake, these companies have tangible AI orders and backlog and strength and things are accelerating. This is not like the late 1990s when, you know, these are arguably madeup numbers and nobody's making any money.
>> This is another part of the picks and shovel story when it comes to AI and Dell is one of those as Art was mentioning with servers, CPUs being in strong demand. And I will mention that this is also seems to be a year of the throwback companies because you have Dell hitting highs. You have also Cisco.
Remember that one also from the do era.
>> So good it is.
>> That's right. And Intel as well. So this is all part though of the AI trade, the picks and shovels. And Dell's performance is stellar. I mean they even talked about also u just the fact of demand. Demand demand is is is really what's driving all of this. and the fact that you've got also memory constraints and customers that want to that are doing these multi-year deals. So, this is why they can see into the future and have such strong uh outlook for 2027.
>> And as I love how you frame that, I'll put that one to you. Uh indeed, this might just be the year of the throwback company in the world of tech. Uh is Cisco and what we're seeing with Dell, are these the new best ways to play the AI boom? It certainly feels like that.
And just to take a step back and talk about that sort of comparison that we all like to do with com and you know think about the multiples we're trading at back in the dot bubble versus the multiples are trading at now. I think it's the the very tangible fundamental driver that's making this so possible.
The NASDAQ composite uh 99 2000 traded in a range of 150 to 200 times and this year it's trading in a range of 25 to 35 times. Clearly, these are very important companies, but they've gotten here taking the long road to being fundamentally driven and important in the artificial intelligence revolution.
>> Art, I've had uh people tell me the past two weeks, Brian, there's so much value in industrials and healthcare. Like, who gives a damn? Like, who cares when you see Dell up over 40%. I mean, the AI infrastructure buildout is real. It's just so hard to not stay long these stocks, right?
>> Well, I'll tell you this. I think one of the things to think about there is at what point in time do you have some mean reversion? So last time I was on we were talking about the the delta between the semiconductor index and the software index and that delta was about 80%.
Right? With obviously software being uh the lagard in and semiconductors being up a huge amount just over the course of the since the last time we spoke that gap has closed and that gap is now only 50%. So we're starting to see that mean reversion is going to happen one way or the other. software companies that are going to be disrupted are likely going to start rising. And I think on the other hand, some of the multiples in storage and in memory probably are getting ahead of themselves. So, I think that both things can be true at the same time.
>> Jared, I'm going to test your uh charting uh capabilities here. Not that I ever doubt them. Uh the socks index, I believe, is trading the at the highest level or over the 200 day moving average it has ever seen before or relative to the do-com bubble. I saw I saw this somewhere next this morning.
>> Yes. Um it's just out of sight. the socks started blowing away a lot of those.com comps comps over a month ago and it's only gotten stronger since then. So, let's go to the Wi-Fi interactive. I'll pull up a year-to- date of the uh what we call the Philly semiconductor index or the socks. You can see it's up 83% really exploded off of those March lows. Now, I'll show you a six-year chart and you can see yeah, it is just going gang busters. Now, I compared the socks, uh, how far it is, and let me just put the moving, let me see if I can put a 200 day moving average in there. That's going to be a week. So, if I put a There we go.
>> Look how smooth this guy is. Oh, you're so smooth, Jared.
>> Thank you. Thank you. So, we are I don't know what the percentage above there, but yeah, it probably matches or exceeds what we saw back in. Now, I also took a look at the uh internet index, the Dow Jones internet computer index going back all the way to the mid 90s. And this serves as a good comparison. And I got a article coming in over the weekend. It talks about the Knicks, the 1999 phenomenon, all that good stuff. Um, but the Dow the Dow Jones internet index was actually up much more than the Socks is right now on a trailing year basis on a bunch of multiple bases on uh, you know, distance from the 200 day moving average. So technically, we could get more stretched here. And as Art pointed out, all right, Dell is up 30% today and it just got cheaper. So you know, pass that through your brain. Yeah, that's a lot that's a lot to you conceptualize here on on a Friday and as in suddenly I I'm really not talking about Micron Sandis, but I think there was a wild new uh price target out in SanDisk.
>> Yeah. U target out in SanDisk and this company is just it's been the number one performer of the S&P 500 uh this year or one of the top five I should say uh along with the other memory plays. The memory play is really what's driven this and now you are seeing everything else in the hardware space that is also going higher. But I want to mention one other po point um saws you know when we talk about these throw throwback companies look at Caterpillar on the DAO it's one of the best performers on the DAO and Caterpillar because it is also part of the AI trade and with them it's about energy and it's about gas turbines and it's about all all the infrastructure that has to do with the energy grid and infrastructure for AI data centers. But all of these companies that are part of the AI trade. So this is extending now beyond the memory and memory has been of course the lead driver. The question is now if this also goes into all these other plays and if investors are getting into all these other areas as well >> and as you are fired today with these observations are uh clearly AI mania spreading like one big giant blob. How could the investor at home spot opportunities like this? Because you went if you go back and I did this this morning. If you go back and you read Dell's earnings release and earnings call from from 3 months ago, sure you could pick up a business that is strong, doing quite well, probably had a good quarter, but I I don't think I think it would be very hard to have estimated what they reported last night, not only in terms of the quarter, but also the AI backlog.
>> Yeah, I think that's a really good point. I think ANZ really nailed it with saying what's AI direct and what's AI related. Catractor, Eden, all of the power that's going to be needed. I think investors need to start broadening out their approach to um investing in the artificial intelligence revolution here.
But if you took all of the names, if you go, you know, through the hyperscalers and then the the direct uh compute uh providers and then the the memory players and then the other that list of others getting very large and a lot of it has to do with how to get get the energy that's needed here. So if you're looking to diversify your AI bucket, I would argue that looking at the energy providers to the contractors and and the um and all of the all of the the tertiary plays and and the data center buildup.
>> All right. How does this impact the the demand to own NVIDIA stock in the past two or three years? This has been the primary way to play the AI boom.
However, we're learning here today, Dell, you name it. Even a company like Cisco that the AI infrastructure buildout is is spreading very rapidly and Nvidia, I think we're being reminded, is not going to be the sole winner here.
>> Yeah, for sure. And unfortunately, so Chad TBT rolled out what, you know, November of 22 and since then, Nvidia is up, you know, a,000%. Unfortunately, when you get to that law of large numbers, you you find one of the best uh companies in the potential basket of AI investments being owned by everybody, finding that next potential owner of Nvidia, especially in a world where we're about to see three massive IPOs get rolled out and portfolio managers are going to say, what is it that I'm going to move out of my portfolio to buy SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc. So, I think that's where some of the pressure comes in Nvidia. It's it unfortunately you know trades at a 23 multiple and grows its earnings you know 80% and those gross margins of 72% and yet it's got the lowest multiple of the mag 7. So I think that is you know the its success is also its failure and finding that incremental buyer is going to be very difficult for Nvidia.
>> I truly believe this is a defining day for the tech trade with these Dell results. Our big thanks to Art Enz and Jared. Good to see you all. Great insights as always. All right. Tough start to the session for GAP shares after delivered unwelcome surprise at Old Navy in the first quarter. Gap co Richard Dixon joins me next.
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If it weren't for those Old Navy dresses in the first quarter, it would probably be a much different trading session for retail icon Gap. stock is getting smoked as fresh concerns on Old Navy's near-term growth have surfaced after a tough start to the year in seasonal categories. Going lost here is that GAP uh that division posted a 10% sales increase in the quarter and the company still managed to lift its fullear profit forecast despite the Old Navy product misses. Richard Dixon is GAP Inc. CEO and he joins me now. Richard, good to see you as always. Um look, take me inside what exactly happened in Old Navy.
Look, before before we get to Old Navy, I think it's important to recognize we delivered a a progress quarter. Uh, and it was across several key metrics. I mean, this is our ninth consecutive quarter of positive comp sales. Three out of the four brands are growing, including Old Navy. Comps were up 2% uh and that's building on 2% comp growth from last year. We overperformed uh on our gross margin outlook by 30 basis points. We also won across all income cohorts. we gained share uh and we returned $450 million in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. So on whole we really did make progress. Now the performance at the brand level varied um and in that context on Old Navy we did deliver a 1% comp growth on top of last year's 3% growth. Now that also marks the brand's sixth consecutive quarter of positive comps. So when you look at it on on whole and we look at the key categories where we continued to deliver results active denim kids and baby all of those categories posted growth versus last year and continued to build relevance with customers. We also maintained share overall top ranking active denim and kids baby. Now, the seasonal categories, Brian did get off to a weaker start. In particular, dresses where we just did not have the right fashion and value equation. Ultimately, you know, this was a degree of overinvesting in a category where the consumer just wasn't there.
And it was a decline in the dress market. The team has moved quickly to better convert with sharper prices and strong messaging to move through that merchandise. And as the changes have begun to take hold, we have seen trends improve uh given the performance we had in the first quarter challenging season and seasonal products. We are taking a moderated view on the year, but we're driving for better results.
>> And Richard, like I don't want to sit here and imply like Old Navyy's going the way of J. C. Penney or Kmart. That's not what I'm applying here. I, you know, in within the dress category, when you say fashion, what did that customer want? And when they came into that store, what what didn't match up with what those wants?
>> Okay, so where our dress assortment did resonate was in occasion dressing. Okay, which has a more specific end use, Easter, weddings, and so forth. We're seeing a change in customer acceptance of dresses during key peak moments like summer stock up. Instead, they're shifting to more versatile categories and styles that ultimately can be worn year round. And so, we simply overinvested in the category in the context of where the consumer was. And we are seeing success in seasonless categories like denim, fleece, knits, and active where we delivered a 6% comp in women's year-to- date. So again, this is a first half season uh uh challenge in the context of our inventory. As we move to the second half where we see strength in seasonless categories, we believe we're going to quickly recover and continue to grow. Richard, if I read the guidance right, you are looking for better days or better quarters at at Old Navy as the year progresses. you know, when I come to Old Navy during back to school or later in the fall, what will look different at the chain, um, that might excite customers and and help deliver on that guidance? Look, I think when you look at our merchandising, the quality of product, the value proposition, the way that we're driving instore experiences, you really start to see the progress that we're making with sharper, more effective merchandising, strong price points, great messaging, and ultimately, you know, what people expect of Old Navy. Great value and great product. When you come to our stores, particularly in back to school, we are the family value proposition brand. You're going to have a great experience and you're going to have great depth and dialogue with our merchandise. We feel very confident as we head into the back half.
>> So, you haven't seen the consumer pull back at all in any of these change given everything going on in the world. Gas prices, high prices at the grocery stores, you name it.
>> No, you know, we're seeing consistency and strength in the consumer behavior. I mean, we we have sustained AUR growth.
Uh we also have market share gains which indicate on whole again that our product is resonating. Uh as I said, Brian, we're winning across all income cohorts.
We've got growth across low, middle, and high income uh customers. Uh I think it's demonstrating the breath and the relevance and the resilience of our portfolio. So no, on on whole, we see consumers steady and we don't anticipate very much change as we uh as we continue throughout the year.
>> I think this double digit growth at GAP um surprised a lot of folks in a positive way. Is is GAP now a 10% grow over the next two quarters?
>> Look, first off, thank you for calling out GAP. We feel so good about the momentum at GAP. Uh and importantly again the consistency that the brand has demonstrated over time. I mean this is our 10th consecutive quarter of positive comps. And it's not just a positive comp. It's a doubledigit standout comp in the first quarter by the way up against 5% last year. So we're seeing the consistency and the continued momentum in GAP. We're seeing it across the women's business. We made progress in men's. Uh we're improving the trends in kids and baby. Uh overall the category performance remains healthy especially in denim and I think it's a tribute to the GAP team. I mean we're delivering disciplined clear consistent messaging which is resonating with our consumers collaborations are driving great excitement with Gen Z and we're maintaining that broad multigenerational appeal. So look we're very confident in where we are with GAP. It is on the forefront of the cultural conversation as an iconic American brand. We see significant runway ahead, great product, great storytelling, great execution, much more to come.
>> Richard, lastly on Athleta, why is it taking so long for that brand to start showing positive gains? You know, I see the the sales declines there and it's coming at a time where like one of its major competitors, Llemon, I mean, that's a freaking debacle over there.
I'm sure you've been following everything that's been going on that chain for a while. Miss Styles, uh, no leadership. Like, what if it can't turn around now, when can it turn?
>> Look, two, we've talked about this. I mean, 2026 is the rebuild year for Athleta. Uh, and we're continuing to strengthen the brand's foundation under Maggie Gagger's leadership, who just joined us in August. Uh, since Maggie started, she's takes she's taken several key actions ultimate to ultimately to strengthen the brand. Uh, first, she streamlined the assortment considerably, which is resulting in better AUR and margins even with the challenging topline right now. She's also been repositioning talent, filling in key roles in the organization. If you look at our website right now, we're delivering a much better creative execution of the brand. Uh we're also seeing some really good reads of new fashion, albeit small. It's indicating that we can sort of drive traction, but we do see similar Q2 uh results to Q1 with slight improvement in the back half. And overall, Brian, look, this is a top five ranked brand in the women's active space. It's an important brand in the industry, and it's an important brand in our portfolio that we believe in for long term.
>> Richard, good to see you as always. Have a good weekend. Talk to you soon.
>> All right. Thanks, Brian. You, too.
>> All right, Julie has you next on Market Catalyst. We'll be right back.
Welcome to Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hyman. We are 30 minutes into the US trading day. So, let's take a look on this Friday at where we stand. We stand a little bit higher, but not hugely higher. We've got the Dow higher by about 165 points right now. That's about a third of 1%, the S&P up about a fourth of 1%. Then we got the Nasdaq Composite up about 2/3 of 1%. while we're here and since it is a Friday, might as well look at uh the longer term periods as well.
So, here's the NASDAQ on the week up about 3%. The S&P 500 up 2% on the week and we have seen this weekly winning streak that has persisted for the S&P 500. This might even be week nine if I'm not mistaken in terms of how we've done.
So, that takes the yeartoate gain um to about 11% for the S&P 500. If you look at how we've done in the month, as we are at month end here, we get a 5% gain or so. At the same time that we have seen stocks continue their march upward, we have seen um rates sort of peak and then moderate to some extent peak above 5 and a half%. Now we're just below it on the 10-year note. As we know, that's been something that has been in focus.
And then we might as well look at oil. I feel like those are the three assets that we've really been focused on lately. stocks, treasuries, and oil. So, here's oil and the decline that we have seen after its peak above 105 and now falling to below 90 as there are still more talks ongoing seemingly over a more lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran. But let's get back to today, right? Because we do have yet another day of big gains for tech. The XLK up two and a half% today and everything else is not doing a heck of a lot. So with the gains today, this is one of those days where it's very clear that the waiting of tech within the major averages is the reason that the major averages are are higher because you got consumer staples, you got energy, you got real estate, you got communication services, even all of them are trading lower. So what is working within tech today that is pulling it up? Well, you have the likes of Microsoft up three and a half%. We've seen a recovery from Microsoft recently as um as we're talking about it here. You see doesn't look that impressive on this chart because it's still lower year to date, but you've seen a pretty good bump from the lows of the year. This is mirroring much of what we've seen in software, but Microsoft is the biggie there. So, something to continue to watch if it continues that. We've got Broadcom up 4% by the way. It reports next week. Nvidia gaining a little bit of steam here.
Micron getting a street high price target from Susuana's Medi Husseini. He is putting a$,750 price target on this baby and it's around 976 right now. So even with that 242% gain year to date, he's still looking at more upside because he is optimistic on pricing. And then if we equal weight it here, maybe we can get to No, it's not in this particular index. I'm looking for Dell, ladies and germs, to see if we can um find it. Um, but I don't know if it is in any of our I don't know which heat map it's in since we have so many heat maps here. Um, but let's talk about Dell, shall we? Because that company came out and really shocked the street.
It's amazing that the street can still be shocked to such an extent uh by a company like Dell where we already knew that the company was seeing renewed demand for its servers because of demand for AI. So, let's talk more about this and more about where we could be shocked elsewhere. I don't know. Joining us for more is Bob O'Donnell, Technalysis Research president. I have found this trend so interesting, Bob, that like, okay, here's Dell. We knew it was doing well, but then it soarses because it comes out and beats by an even wider margin. Obviously, that's been the case with the memory and storage space as well. We keep being surprised. So, let's take Dell, I guess, is that as the the ca the case study, if you will, here.
Why how did it surprise so much? How did we not get that that it the demand? We knew the demand was big. Why do we not understand that it was quite as big and and where is that surprise coming from exactly?
>> Well, I think the surprise is coming from the fact that people did not recognize that individual companies were going to start buying their own AI infrastructure. For the longest time, it's been, hey, we're going to count on the hyperscalers because and all, you know, they're spending 700 billion dollars, blah blah blah. But you know I was at Dell Tech World last week and I saw and and Dell has been working with Nvidia for a long time and almost uh was it either two or three years ago they announced uh with Nvidia an enterprise AI factory and the concept was uh that companies themselves could start to build their own infrastructure and it would have a payoff uh that would be significant and at DelTech World last week they announced they had over 5,000 customers in fact that had done that and so what we're seeing is this dramatic shift that most people were not keeping their eye on around the fact that a lot of the AI workloads don't have to be done in the cloud. You can do them locally. And in fact, as we start to head toward days when and eras when we're not sure about the power, we're not sure about how many data centers are going to be built for the grid. If I'm an organization that needs to do AI work, if I own my own stuff, my own token factory as Jensen likes to call it, then that gives me an up uh you know, a leg up on my competition. And so you see it there. You know, HPE reports next week it'll be interesting. Lenovo, who also sells servers, had big numbers.
I mean, all the pieces are in place there to see this big switch. And the last point I'll make on this is that Nvidia themselves in their last earnings broke out hyperscalers and then enterprise and other areas because they also see this as a growing opportunity.
So I think that's what most people missed. Back to your original question.
>> Yeah. So I was seeing this this clip of Michael D make its way around where he talked about onrem AI which is exactly what you're talking about. Uh why does it matter? Like why can't a company just run its stuff through a data center that is being run by a hyperscaler? Like what is the advantage for them? And and when we say onrem, does it mean like physically in the same building as the company that they they have their own or adjacent to that they're that they have their own servers?
>> Uh all great questions. So I'll I'll tackle the second.
>> Sorry, that was a lot of them.
>> It's okay. It's all good. Uh so on prim is the traditional it's your corporate data center. Sometimes it's physically in the same place but increasingly we've seen a lot of companies use what are called collos uh colllocation centers where uh a company like Equinex and some of these other companies they basically host the servers they physically manage them but they're basically owned and or leased depending on the arrangement by an organization like a Coca-Cola or whomever. So that's the notion of onrem.
It could be physically there or in other places, but it's sort of under their control. Um, and the reason they're starting to do this, again, there's the capacity questions, there's the uh how much can I even get access to this, but the biggest thing is what people like to call tokconomics, which is uh how many tokens am I going to be generating and how much does it cost to generate those tokens? And we've seen the ability now, one of the things that Dell also announced and uh Google talked about this at IO last week, which I was also at, that some of their largest Gemini models you're now going to be able to run on prem. So there will be certain types of workloads you can do completely within your own on premises environment.
Most of the biggest frontier models and capabilities, you'll still go to the web, but the idea is what I call a hybrid architecture. I think you and I have talked about this when I was on last time >> and that is this idea that you do some of the AI workloads in the cloud, you do some on prem and even and you start to do some on the devices. The other point about Dell's earnings by the way was not only was it the servers, the PCs crushed it and everybody was shocked by that. Of course, they followed up HP had HP Inc.
had just also announced a really strong quarter on PCs as did Lenovo. What's happening in the PC market is the ASPs are going up because of the memory shortages and everything else. So the unit numbers are down but overall revenues are increasing and both of those companies in fact predicted even a bigger year than they originally thought which that definitely caught a lot of people by surprise because everybody was like well memory shortage you know all these sales are going to get crushed and in point of fact they're like yeah units may go down but you know they're going to make it up on revenue. Okay. So, Bob, I know you are um you know, you're a technical analyst. You look at the technology behind all of this. You're not a financial analyst, but uh when you see a gain like we've had for the likes of Adele or to brought it out to some of the other the memory and storage companies, do you think the market gets it now? Do you think the Marley market fully gets it now or do you think that there is still capacity for these companies to surprise um you know that we've we're not fully understanding still the the capacity here?
>> I I think I think the market still has an opportunity to surprise because to be honest with you there's still a lot of companies still figuring out this hybrid AI idea. I mean, remember it wasn't that long ago I was talking to a CIO of a major company. We're saying, "Yeah, we finally got rid of our data center."
It's like, "Whoops. Well, maybe you may need to reconsider that because so I think in general there's a lot of learning still going on here." So, there's still a lot of upside as organizations start to build this out and that has implications for, you know, Cisco and and networking companies.
Again, uh HPE had last year they bought Juniper Network. So, they've got that.
You talked briefly about storage. You know, of course, it's the flash memory that we've seen, but it's also the traditional hard drive guys, Western Digital, Seagate, these guys.
>> I mean, they've already rallied a lot.
>> I know. I know. But the thing about, you know, when you think about these, when you do this stuff on prem, it generates a ton more data. And so, what these companies are also starting to realize is sort of they need like a let's call it a pyramid-like structure of storage.
So they need you know the HBM memory in the server itself. Then there's the flash memory where all the the current action is happening and then there's all the data it generates and the logs it generates and all the agent work that's happening. All of that has to be stored uh and analyzed as well. So I think that's where you see again even like I said the hard drive guys like the CHWDs still even have opportunity.
>> Okay. So the ones what we've talked about most of them have already rallied even and even have seen like rallies on top of rallies as in the case of Dell.
Is there anything um that not that's going to come out of left field but do you think there are any still pockets where they could be the next to catch the wave? I mean it sort of went like Nvidia and the you know GPUs then went CPUs, memory and storage servers. like we've had these different waves of uh the market sort of realizing, oh yeah, this is going to be good. You know, energy you can throw in there too, right? That the market has has had these different periods of realization. Oh, these companies are going to benefit from this. Is there any st is there any stone left unturned on that front?
>> So on the hardware side, it's getting tougher. I mean you'd have to go down to raw components like uh companies who are making coherent optical connectors because the connections between all these chips is moving from copper to optics and so optical fiber you know uh companies that make that and the interconnect we've seen a bunch of smaller companies focused around that and oh by the way something like a global foundaries for example I happen to know the the chipm company they actually have specialized tools for doing uh fiber uh for optics uh so that's an area that some people may have not thought about. I think another thing to think about is going to be software.
Next week I'll be at both Microsoft Build and the Snowflake Summit and you know obviously Microsoft we think of as a tool company or sorry as a software company but they do a lot of tools and I think it'll be interesting to see what they have to say about that. Managing agents becomes an issue managing the data that feeds the agents become an issue. So there's a lot of opportunity I think to see how companies deal with data management issues as again as they bring these things on prem as well as things like how do I manage these agents you've got companies like PaloAlto Networks looking at this Cisco you don't normally think of them as doing agent uh sort of management but they're doing things like that so I think there are a bunch of areas around software and the management of the data and the agents uh and these AI workloads that are going to come along once you buy the hardware then you're like, oh, okay, now I'm doing all this stuff. I got to manage all the stuff I'm doing. So, I think that perhaps uh is the next opportunity is those kind of areas.
>> Okay, one one last question for you, and this has to do with token maxing and the much needed overdue in my opinion backlash against it, right? That there are these companies now that just like money is no object. They just want people using AI. They want the maxing the number of tokens. And I think there's finally u my former colleague Madison Mills wrote about this for Axios that finally there's like a little bit of realization, oh maybe this is not the best way to use this to spend this money. Um is are there any potential knock-on effects down the chain?
>> No. I mean I think it's just a realization. Yeah, things got out of hand, right? It became a contest of who could do the most, which is which is dumb, right? But honestly the idea behind token maxing the principle is that people were using a lot of tokens and that's why that onre store becomes very interesting you know in fact I think Dell they talked about the fact that you could get an ROI of like three months on some of the workstations that they're doing uh you know next week at Computex we're going to hear Nvidia's got a keynote uh Qualcomm's got a keynote I'm sure we're going to hear more about uh devices that are going to be able to do more of that token generation on their own and not have so Even though you're generating a lot of tokens, you're not necessarily paying for those in the cloud. Yet another reason for that momentum around onrem and and ondevice. Again, the hybrid AI kind of architectures.
>> Bob, so good to see you. Thank you so much.
>> Talk to you soon. Coming up, Blue Origin having a rough day according to founder Jeff Bezos. We'll talk about what he needs next.
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for the Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin facing a major setback. The space company's new Glenn rocket exploding during launchpad test last night. Blue Origin confirmed it had experienced an anomaly during a so-called hot fire test. That's when a rocket fired up while remaining anchored to the ground. Jeff Bezos took to X to confirm all personnel are safe and accounted for. Promonian is here with me right now um to talk more about this. Um so I mean you know we just had um the Starship also launch that had some bugs but like I assume a launchpad explosion is worse than a rocket getting off but having a few issues.
>> I mean >> it would seem like I I don't know. I'm not a space expert.
>> Right. Right. But I mean this is just a a static rocket test like you me like you mentioned just testing the rocket engines and something catastrophic happened and the whole thing went up right that's a pretty big loss. I mean I would argue you'd probably it'd be better for it to actually launch and go into space go into orbit or low earth orbit and then if it explodes then you can you have some data collection things. This is just a rocket the actual engine test and it led to this huge disaster. You you mentioned um Bezos was talking about how we're too early to know the root cause. We're going to find out. It's a very rough day. Elon Musk responding. Most unfortunate. Rockets are hard. You know, kind of like a little I feel bad for you, but hey, too bad, right? Luckily, no one was injured.
There's no no injuries. No one on on board the rocket. No one anywhere near this thing. So, that's fine. But like you mentioned, you know, space have been on a on a rocket ship >> been supercharged recently uh with a lot of the industry folks on the industry.
Uh and now we're seeing this some of these space get hit because of the fact that there was just so much attention there. um the Rocket Labs the world a space mobile the world all going down here but you know this also comes in the heels of uh SpaceX's potential IPO um and Bloomberg reporting this morning that that valuation came down just a little bit to perhaps 1.8 eight trillion or thereabouts. Still a lot, but you know, maybe is there some kind of bloom off the rose here with with space stocks? Have they kind of come up way too much the enthusiasm for the SpaceX IPO? I think that's a valid question because this is still a very, you know, nent infantile like kind of infancy in infancy technology.
>> Yeah, it definitely is. I mean, and but there's a, you know, it's the potential that people are buying obviously when we're talking about this. So, Blue Origin um have they they have tested these rockets successfully before or not this particular type of rocket before?
>> Uh they have I mean they're reusable rockets. They've had uh a few tests that have land you know they've gone to space. They've deployed um satellites and then uh landed back on the I believe they land in the water a water pad. Uh so that's happened. Uh but they're nowhere near the term in terms of the volume and and actual deployments that that that SpaceX has done. So they're catching up and you know obviously Elon Musk and and Jeff Bezos have quite a competitive streak for both of them going there. Uh so any kind of setback is a big deal and when not being a public company that's that's fine but uh this is this is I mean that video is unbelievable.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Luckily last you said no one was hurt.
>> Now the when we talk to space um experts or investors the the almost universal consensus seems to be that SpaceX is way ahead >> Yeah.
>> of everyone else. um you know and I don't know what the timeline looks like for somebody I mean it and they're way ahead of everyone else but they still have a long way to go on a lot of what they're trying to achieve. So I I don't know if you're hearing kind of like where when Blue Origin even approaches um getting you know if they're competing like are you know it's is it is it a very unbalanced uh competition? I think it's I think it seems that way right now, but I with these companies, they can sort of make sort of massive leaps in a short amount of time. You know, Amazon has or Amazon's LEO, the lower orbit satellite internet service is part of the whole Jeff Bezos empire. Um, and that's catching up to Starlink, right?
They're slowly but surely doing that.
And then eventually, if you have enough space satellites up there, it's it's an equivalent service. Uh, I think potentially if you have some positive news on the rocket front with Blue Origin, um, you know, Artemis coming up, more missions, SpaceX and Blue Origin are competing to make the new lander.
Um, they're both up for that contract, right? So that's and for my understand like Blue Origin could get it and then that leaps them leap frog them ahead in the in the kind of the the lander and and human capsule.
>> Even within the overall competition, there's all kinds of small competitions.
We're small on a relative basis. It might be the case that that SpaceX is your go-to rocket payload launch service and maybe Blue Origin is your uh I need some specific crew crew capsule to go up into space. I mean Blue Origin capitalizer. So, we'll see. Yeah.
>> Yeah, we will. All right. Thanks, Pros.
Appreciate it. Well, I've been digging into some of these um space ETFs and some of the individual space companies because as Pros mentioned, they have been ripping, but not today. So I'm taking a look at Alphaspace which is Yahoo Finance's platform where you can build these kinds of screeners here and and tools to sort of measure them. So here we have um some of these space companies and space ETFs. Um as you can see all of them are trading lower today.
AS Space Mobile in particular is taking a hit. It's down about 20%. But uh also to the point we were talking about these stocks have done enormously well over the past um year or so. Now, this one is showing NASA, which is one of the ETFs, and it hasn't been around that long. So, this chart only goes back a little ways, but even in the life of this ETF, it's up by some 38%. Rocket Lab has rocketed higher again to use that um that that word play. Um so, the pullback today is coming on the back of all of it. But also to the point where we were talking about if you look at the metrics for the sort of financials around this company, yes, uh something like Rocket Lab last year had $600 million in um in revenue, but it also lost nearly $200 million in terms of its net losses. So these are companies that are still in many cases in somewhat experimental phases.
Certainly they're still spending more than they bring in in most of these cases. Um, so we'll see how that evolves as we watch the whole quest for SpaceX to go public and as we continue to watch some of these test launches as well.
Well, coming up, we're going to dive into the future of fintech and the challenges facing the industry. That is next.
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This stage is set for a blockbuster IPO summer on Wall Street with investors digesting some eye watering valuations for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. What does that mean for the IPO pipeline for the fintech sector with companies aiming to ride the wave of public listings? I want to talk about this with Lexalin.
He's Generative Ventures co-founder and managing partner um an investor in a lot of these AI adjacencies and fintech and sort of future of finance. Um good to have you here Lex and you Substack about all of this as well. So nice to have you here. Um, as I was reading one of your posts from earlier this year, you were anticipating a lot of big uh, fintech IPOs this year and I realized as I was reading it, I haven't heard about a lot of them lately. And I just saw the news today that Gayscale was delaying its IPO again. But like we're talking about stuff like Stripe and Plaid and Kraken, which has also delayed its IPO. Um, what's going on here? Is it just that these enormous IPOs are are sort of taking a lot of the demand away or energy away from some of these others?
What's happening?
>> Yeah, I I think that's uh that's right.
Uh there's a black hole of attention uh that's going into the uh SpaceX and Open AI and then anthropic sort of IPO conversations. And so a lot of risk capital is going that way. Um and also the the mega IPOs are kind of casting a shadow, right? They are a bellweather for how um people feel about the markets in general. So if SpaceX doesn't do well, um everybody else I think is scared to follow. Um the other dynamic is that last year we did have a lot of capital markets activity um around fintech and around crypto with digital asset treasury companies and uh some specs coming to market on companies like securitize and so on. Um and we also had big acquisitions. So uh you know Morgan Stanley was in the market. People were talking about Zero Hash, BBNK, companies like that. Um and those had mixed results. Um whether it's the digital asset market that's in crypto or whether it's um you know being able to close the deals from the end of last year. Um I think things have been slower than investors expected. And because things have been slower, we're now you know in the airport queue in the takeoff lane behind the jumbo jet uh waiting for the rest of the stuff to happen. Um are there implications operationally for the ecosystem do you think because there is all this you know in other words does this affect um the innovations that these companies are making the integrations that they're seeing into the bigger financial system do you think or is that all still happening despite them not having those big liquidity events?
Um, I think it's still happening, but it's priced more conservatively, right?
You can have um you can have revenue that grows incrementally and uh kind of in a in a linear fashion, but that revenue might be valued at 3x one year and 30x another year. Um, and so I think there is absolutely valuation compression. Um and there's a bit of a slowdown in the speculative side or like the speculative nature of what can happen right a lot of the stories towards the end of last year were about how um the AI uh economy is coming and all of the uh agentic interactions coming out of the big models whether it's um AI agents working to replace people or whether it is people using um AI software to become more productive all of that is going to get plugged into uh a more modern financial system and these fintexs that are coming to market the ones that have adjacencies to uh stable coins to embedded finance to new capital markets that these companies would deliver this agentic future and I think that's that's a really exciting story uh it is also true I think the machine economy and robot money and all of this stuff is happening um but it is moderated like the the speculative desire for this stuff is moderated. Um and again, we'll wait for the pricing of the rest of the market. So, I think a bit of that window has has shut, but the underlying work continues to happen. I mean, we see that um in Stripe, we see that with Coinbase and lots of other companies.
>> So, Lex, I feel like at least for us on this show, we've been talking a lot about um AI in the enterprise. We've been talking a lot about the infrastructure of AI. the discussion has been less about the future of money and the future of finance and what the financial system is going to look like.
So, as somebody who's really steeped in this, if I look out five years from now, what do you think the biggest change is going to be to the financial system as a result of some of these things that are percolating today?
There's um there's a real tension about this because you can make um these science fiction claims or like these science fiction stories about the future and people uh don't want to believe them or they'll question what's really underlying or what are the fundamentals and I think that's right.
Um but at the same time we have entered uh science fiction world and all you have to do is look at at SpaceX to to see that or figure or any of these other companies. Um and I think if you zoom out um you can look at the arrival of um the internet you can look at the arrival of um web 2.0. So when the internet went from being flat websites to being uh interactive and API based and and largely uh sold to developers instead of people, you can look at things like the mobile revolution when people adopted a new kind of uh point of sale device and that when they started using their phone for proximity payments. And so every time you have a behavior change in terms of how people buy things, how those things are delivered, how they're advertised, um the underlying financial infrastructure ends up getting kind of terraformed each time, right? So you have PayPal with web 1, you have Stripe with web 2, uh with web 3, you have companies like Coinbase and and uh Ethereum, protocols like Ethereum. Uh and so now we're coming into people call it web 4 or you can just think about it as uh agentic uh agentic commerce or the agentic economy. And so there is legitimacy to this claim that like lots of people are using AI and they're going to use it instead of search engines and they'll use it to be more productive.
And so underneath that you're going to have implications for payments, for um capital markets, for banking, for insurance. All of these things have to become much more machine ready. I mean, you can see by my background, I've already uh gotten accustomed to living in the data center, right? That's where that's where it's all going to happen.
Um and so every time you have a big platform shift, you have a restructuring of who gets to bank uh the new economy.
And I think we're on the same precipice today.
>> I hope it's more uh physically comfortable where you are actually are than if you were actually sitting in a data center. Um Lex. Okay. So So from an investment perspective because you know I'm I'm talking to retail investors out there. Um you're in the private markets more but but where are you seeing that next then wave of opportunity? you know, what are the publicly traded or privately privately held companies that you think are going to that stand to benefit the most from this next wave that you're talking about?
>> I think it's um it's become such a difficult question because in the past you could say uh the innovators are the ones that are going to benefit the in the early stage companies that are building this stuff are the ones that are going to benefit. But there's been a really strange shift I think where over the last three four years um growth has accred to uh the incumbents you know so it's as you know Google and Apple and Microsoft um that have had uh enormous valuation expansion and then the rest of the market kind of lags and we see the same thing on the on the p in the private markets where the modern internet companies, whether they are fintech companies, um you know, folks like uh Brex and Plaid and RAMP um and uh or whether they are crypto companies um whether they are Coinbase or Kraken or uh Circle or Consensus um or the Asia exchanges like Binance and so on. Mhm.
>> These companies are already very good at building software and um I've been personally surprised by how quickly the the fintech and crypto incumbents have moved into these incredibly innovative ideas, right? Robin Hood talking about um tokenized equities and and working deeply on things like that or um Circle um launching their own chain called ARC or stable coins at at pretty large scale stripe on the private side doing the same thing with Tempo like these are really innovative ideas and we've also had the agentic payments protocol and other initiatives from very large companies right so stripe already working with Open AI, Anthropic and Google and Coinbase. Um, and so I see this rush into the market ahead of the behavior and ahead of the opportunity.
Um, and I think that it's it's a for a retail investor, I think you have to be very careful about um about some of these investments because the big companies can afford to make them. Uh, but the market's not quite there yet.
So, it's a story rather than a fundamental. Um, Lex, really interesting conversation. We got to leave it there, but I hope you'll come back sometime soon and we'll talk more.
>> Thanks for having me.
>> Thank you. Coming up, what an unexpected honey shortage in North America means for the makers of Mike's Hot Honey.
That's next.
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Americans honey consumption is at historic highs, but at the same time, US honey production is falling to record lows as bee colonies struggle and more supply comes from overseas. Matt Beaton, CEO of Mike's Hot Honey, explains what's behind the recent drop.
>> Here in the in the States, uh, honey yields are are way down, and it's a a myriad of factors. It's biological. It's it's it's ecological, it's economical as well. Uh, from a from a biological standpoint, you know, bees bees can only produce so much honey at the end of the day. And to ramp up new hives, that takes time, that takes effort, that takes money. From an ecological standpoint, this country uh for better for worse is is largely monocropped, which means it's it's corn, it's alalfa, it's soy. And that means that there's not the the floral diversity that that bees really thrive on to survive and to produce the the wonderful nectar of the gods, we call it, that that they make, honey. Um, and and lastly, there's just a lot of economical pressure on our farmers and and apias and incentivizing them to to to keep their hives and and to grow their hive capacity. Um, it's it's a tough spot for them to be in and and despite the huge demand out there, um, you know, they're they're not really incentivized to go out there and and and raise the supply to meet it.
>> I did try your product, man. I got to say it was tasty and it's going on some pepperoni pizza this weekend. Um, so it's interesting. Demand for your product is very strong, but this key ingredient you're saying it's getting tougher to source in the US. So where are you sourcing that from, Matt?
>> Yeah, you know, we we have a global supply, Josh, and and we've had that for a while cuz, you know, in in food and and especially with our product, just a a fundamental challenge is making sure that you have that consistent sensory profile of flavor, color, viscosity. And when you're dealing with a an agricultural product that that varies by by weather, by region, and throw in the economical factors that might force you to look elsewhere, you just have to look globally. And and certainly the prices out there are a big incentive for us to to go out and look globally. Some major producers of honey in the world are Argentina, Brazil, uh Ukraine, which is certainly a market that has its challenges and have really pulled a significant supply out of the market, Vietnam and other Asian countries as well. But we p primarily source from Argentina, Brazil, the United States, Uruguay, and Mexico.
>> So that's interesting as you look uh globally, Matt, you know, you're looking at South America, for example. I I would imagine that exposes you, Matt, you know, tariffs and and shipping costs and currency fluctuations. How do you as the CEO, how do you sort of just navigate those variables?
It's a great question. I guess it's it's part of what keeps my my job fun and our team on on our toes. Uh we get a lot of different variables thrown at us. I I think the biggest thing that we do is maintain optionality. So, we're never pulling from one um one specific source.
So if there is a tariff that's levied or there is a geopolitical situation that we're faced with, we have different different options that we can pull on to to help ourselves navigate through that adversity. Uh as a business, you know, in CPG, you see a lot of brands out there that have a a long proliferation of SKUs or of items on the shelf. Uh we've opted to take a really focused core strategy. It has a lot of benefits.
It has some trade-offs too, but one of the major benefits is it allows us to keep a really simple, focused, tight supply chain so that I'm not uh forcing my supply chain to to support all these different SKs out there. So when there is adversity, we just have more tools at our disposal to to help navigate it. I would also imagine, Matt, correct me if I'm wrong, but your product has, you know, a pretty I mean, a relatively long shelf life and that does that mean, okay, you can buy when prices are relatively low because, you know, listen, I can I can hold this inventory for a while.
>> That's a great point. You know, your honey, yes. Uh, honey essentially doesn't expire. You can go to the tombs of Egypt, believe it or not. It might be dusty, but you can find honey that's that's edible. Uh and that especially as we've grown, you know, there was a time when we weren't in a capital position to go out and and load up when prices might be low, but but now that we're fortunate to have a little bit of scale, we're in a good capital position. That is definitely one of the tools in our toolkit that that we use um when prices we feel are favorable, we'll go out there, load up, and allows us to weather some of the volatility and the rainy days that might pop up from time to time so we're not constantly reactionary. And that's a that's a real privilege in uh in a food product that largely relies on our agricultural system. You can't say that about about all a commodities out there.
>> Matt, how much does your product cost?
uh on the on the consumer on the on the retail shelf, you're going to find it from anywhere $9 to, you know, $13.99 depending on the part of the country and and the retailer, whether it's a it's a it's a mass retailer, conventional, or or a specialty. So, it's not cheap by any means.
>> Matt, what do you think explains why Americans are eating so much more honey?
What what expl is it I mean, is it taste? Is it health, mad? Is it, you know, more folks are trying to get away from from processed ingredients? What do you think?
>> You know, I'd like to say we have a small part in it, but I'm not naive enough to to feel like that's driving everything. But, you know, we are we are a hot brand in in what we often refer to as an otherwise sleepy aisle over the last 10 years or so. So, it is nice to see some innovation where consumers are really going to the honey aisle for flavor elevation. I think that matters.
We also have a major tailwind that consumers really care about what they eat. Uh they're looking for simple ingredients. They're looking for alternatives to processed sugar and honey and our product in particular sits sits right in the sweet spot of that. Uh so I think that's a a major driver of uh why we're seeing this this renaissance of of honey consumption coming through.
>> Mike's hot honey right in the sweet spot. But all right, coming up we'll discuss the outlook for ultra high net worth investors. You're watching Market Catalyst. We'll be right back.
Hey, hey, hey.
Macro headwinds are complicating the investment landscape for everyone and especially for ultra high net worth individuals. My next guest focuses on just that. Joining me now, Bened Seinstein and global head of Farther family office for this week's FA Corner brought to you by Capital Group. You've been at Farther just a couple months now. You were at uh Goldman Sachs before. Um but I am curious in this environment. I mean, we don't I don't get the chance to talk to very often people who are who are servicing ultra high netw worth folks. And I think there is um a curiosity on the part of us non ultra high net worth folks about where people are putting their money, where your clients are seeing that opportunity right now.
>> Yeah. Well, of course, our investors have all the same worries and concerns that any investor has across the wealth spectrum, whether it's focused on the outcome of of the war in Iran and oil prices, etc. But I think the real difference is that our clients in the ultra high net worth space have the benefit of a long time horizon. they're investing not just for their own lifetimes, but often for those of their descendants and future generations or for causes and institutions um that they will support uh with their estates. And so because of that um you know, we're always looking to skate towards where the puck is going, not where markets will be in the next quarter, but secular trends that will matter for the next decade. And so, uh, as we look as we look forward, I think we're going to see tremendous opportunity with the change in the economy due to artificial intelligence. That's that's a topic for you every day, I know. Um, but even more so, thinking through the geopolitical uh, landscape today, I happen to sit in Miami. It gives me a really interesting perspective on what investing will look like in the Western Hemisphere going forward. I think a lot of times ultra high net worth investors have thought of international investing as being focused on Europe and in Asia. But um particularly with the current administration, we're going to see a lot of opportunity potentially to invest in uh in Latin America in countries that have previously been on the OFAC list and have been uh inaccessible to US capital and investors. And so whether that's opportunities in oil and gas in Venezuela or potentially hopefully down the road um hospitality investments in in Cuba, it's it's a brave new world.
>> Um and what is the sort of appetite for risk because even though they're not on that list, you know, the old fact list anymore, they are opening up more. It looks like there's definitely still a level of unpredictability and risk involved. Mhm.
>> Um and so and I know every investor is different, but how do you think about that those balance of risks?
>> Yeah, I think our clients have the ability to to assess risk on a generational basis more than the average investor. So, um you know, part of my role is to think about asset allocation. That will always be the greatest determinant of portfolio results and success. Um, so I'm not talking about largecale bets on these high-risk uh high high-risk uh potentially opening markets, but it's just interesting areas of diversification and new opportunity. I think as you probably talk to investors every day, one of the concerns is where is the next return opportunity going to come from when we're already sitting at elevated valuations in in public equity markets? Um, and certainly in in private markets as well. Um we see that with with with the uh companies preparing for IPO. You know it's not uncommon for private companies now to approach valuations near a trillion dollars which again is is something that was unthinkable uh only four or five years ago.
>> Um it's it's it's interesting you brought up those IPOs because I am curious. Are your clients already in most of those type of companies or there any that like would be waiting for I imagine they don't have to wait for the IPO to get into most of those.
>> Right. This this is an interesting phenomenon which is that with the biggest names whether it be uh SpaceX or Open AI there have always already been so many opportunities for ultra high net worth investors to gain access.
>> I think one of the phenomenons we're seeing that you know I I I give a a word of caution to high net worth investors on is predatory SPVS with ultra high fees promising access to preIPO names. I I uh buyer beware there.
>> Well, an anthropic put out a warning about just that, >> right? And there's been, you know, synthetic uh equity opportunities, tokenized investment opportunities. You know, you really need to diligence what you're investing in. And always, you know, I always tell my clients, what matters is underwriting to a net return.
So, I'm not allergic to paying any and all fees, but but make sure you understand uh the the economic structure of what you're investing in. I think at the end of the day with these mega IPOs, what's going to matter and you can always distill equity markets to a supply and demand uh supply and demand equation and we're going to see a great absolute dollar value of new equity supply coming to market. But if you look back uh in history in in the 2021 IPO boom or or back to the.com uh era and look at uh the percentage of equity market cap relative to total market cap, it's actually going to be very manageable for the market to digest uh SpaceX and and and others that are around the corner. So I'm I'm I'm pretty confident. As we talk about this asset allocation question, I'm curious how real estate is currently fitting in to your thinking on that, especially since um you know the the sort of typical residential real estate market right now is pretty jammed, right? It's pretty stuck, >> right?
>> Are we seeing that at the high end? Are you still seeing willingness to invest um you know where with rates where they are? I assume there is a little bit more um resilience to to those kinds of factors. Yeah, I I think it's it depends on if we're talking about residential real estate for for single family homes or or investment real estate. I think at the high end of the residential real estate market in in um tier A cities like like a Miami.
>> Yeah, we're going to see new price records continue to be set. believe it continue like as as you know capital is extremely mobile more now than ever particularly since the pandemic and people that were once tied to LA or New York are are are are no longer so we're going to continue to see that mobility to low tax jurisdictions in my view which is going to drive the real estate market at the high end higher um I think one of the most interesting things about real estate as an asset class for our investors are the tax advantages you know for ultra high net worth investors.
Um, optimizing for after tax outcomes is where I can really drive value and what's most important. And real estate has unique advantages as an asset class um, from tax benefits. One of the most interesting opportunities looking out 6 months is going to be the redrawing of the opportunity zone maps. Oh, right.
>> The one big beautiful bill sort of strengthened >> uh, opportunity zone legislation for the for the next decade.
>> Okay. Sorry, we have to leave it there.
Thank you so much for coming in, Ben.
Really appreciate it. That was FA Corner brought to you by Capital Group. And that does it for me. Have a great weekend.
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