Sovereign wealth funds, particularly from Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE, represent a significant but underappreciated risk to US financial markets, especially the technology rally, because these funds currently channel substantial cash flows into the US through concentrated technology investments; if prolonged conflicts require these funds to redirect capital toward defense and infrastructure repair, even a one-third reduction in these flows could materially impact US markets.
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Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Rebecca Patterson and Mishal Husain | Bloomberg SurveillanceAñadido:
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>> [music] >> Single best idea, and Rebecca Patterson said it best today off camera, off microphone. [music] She said, "Tom, it's a 7-day work week."
And it's been that way. I can't remember a 5-day work week. I honestly can't remember. That from Rebecca. This weekend was extraordinary. A major shout-out to Tyler Kendall, to David Gurra, and Lisa Matteo, among many others at Bloomberg that were in Washington and in the Hilton ballroom. A most difficult moment, to say the least. We picked up the pieces. We did so with Rebecca Patterson, of formerly with Bridgewater and with Bessemer Trust, now brilliantly writing at the Council on Foreign Relations. Here's something off the radar.
The sovereign wealth funds, all of a sudden, if they're cash-poor, what will they do? Let's listen. I think one of the biggest underappreciated risks right now for US financial markets, and especially this tech rally, is the possibility, I'm not saying it will happen, but there is a probability that's not zero, that some of the Gulf sovereign wealth funds, particularly I think Saudi and UAE, if this war lasts a little longer, are going to need cash.
They're going to need it to shore up defenses, to shore up damaged infrastructure. And right now, the sovereign wealth fund cash is largely, we're the biggest single recipient, going to the US. And it's going fairly concentrated to technology. Yep. And through a handful of financial intermediaries. Now, I'm not saying it'll stop coming, but if that flow is cut by a third, even, it would have a material impact on the US. So, that is a risk I'm watching carefully. Saudi Arabia has a pretty big budget deficit, so it's not like they have a ton of cash sitting around they can easily tap.
Rebecca Patterson there, just a vignette. Um I have attended numerous times in Abu Dhabi, uh their sovereign wealth fund. And I I can't emphasize enough that these are not theoretical fictions in thin air. These are real offices with real people, with huge cash flows coming in and huge wealth, uh working every day on investment like any other shop. Norway, I would say Singapore and Norway are the iconic sovereign wealth funds. And things have changed with this war, and particularly as Ms. Patterson mentions, uh the Arab sovereign wealth funds will be something close to watch. I'd mention Kuwait in there uh as well.
Mishal Husain, uh of the uh Mishal Husain show in London, uh wonderful podcast for Bloomberg and all of her work over the years at the BBC. Uh she attended Washington for the dinner and for, of course, this event. Uh the king and queen coming to Washington uh here over the administration at war. All sorts of crosscurrents here. Mishal Husain on this historic moment. That evidence that we had on Saturday night of just how inflamed the political climate is in the United States, that's going to be in everyone's uh the forefront of everyone's minds.
The fact that this hugely important state visit comes less than 48 hours after that White House Correspondents Dinner. I think, you know, from the the British hope and expectation will be that the king sort of elevates that situation, that there's something about his presence that makes everyone around him rise above politics. And that will have been the hope for the UK-US bond at this particular moment in time. Maybe even it's got something to offer the United States domestically as well, a reminder that there are conversations that happen like above and beyond the political fray. So, perhaps that's what he brings with him as he flies in today.
Mishal Husain, again, look for her podcast, The Mishal Husain Show. Smart, direct conversation with a number of thought leaders of the world, uh as well. We're on podcasts, on Spotify, on Apple, and YouTube podcasts. It's Single Best Idea.
>> [music]
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