An 11-Week Weather Cycle? Forecaster Says Storms are Repeating Across the U.S.

[00:00:04]Joining us this weekend on US Farm Report, making his debut to the show, we have Gary Lezak, founder and CEO of Weather 2020. And Gary, I've been following you on social media, and I know you are seeing what you're calling an 11-week repeat in the atmosphere this season. But what is driving that pattern, and what does it mean for farmers for what's ahead?

[00:00:24]>> Well, quite simply, let's go back is very complex, so I'll try to be as simple as I can. The weather pattern every year sets up in the fall, a cycle develops, and then that whole weather pattern repeats over and over and over again. It's like the atmosphere actually has a memory, and that's what I discovered back in 1987-88. And this year, it's uh about an 11-week cycle, 10 to 11 weeks, 75, 76, 77-day cycle. And so what has happened in the past is repeating and returning right now. The severe weather that we've been getting is repeating and and cycling back through.

[00:00:59]What you're looking at here is ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

[00:01:05]You've lot of hype about the super El Niño that is coming. What does it mean though for Illinois, for Indiana, for Kansas, for Missouri? What does it mean for the farmer out there? It depends on how the LRC sets up. As you look at this graphic here, last October, we were in a La Niña. That's where the first arrow points. Now, we're in a growing El Niño, forecast by November to be a strong or possibly super El Niño. And yet, the pattern is still the same.

[00:01:38]The pattern is still the same. That's Sunny, the weather dog. There is the LRC, the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle. And El Niño-La Niña are just They are just influences on what's going to happen.

[00:01:53]And how do we know that? Look at this next chart.

[00:01:56]You see the upper level flow on May 27th, just 3 weeks ago, we had a big storm drop down over California. This is the flow at about 18,000 ft up in the atmosphere, the 500 millibar level. On the right, you see almost a duplicate of that storm in October when we had a big storm come in and form right there near San Francisco. We at Weather 2020, using the LRC, knew it would return. It returned around Christmas, December 25th to 30th, there was a big storm there. And we knew it would come back at the end of May.

[00:02:35]But this shows you the same pattern in May as in October. And yet, ENSO, El Niño, has gone through a major shift from La Niña to El Niño already, but the pattern hasn't changed. So, time, that's that's the gist of the LRC.

[00:02:53]The pattern is still cycling now.

[00:02:56]This might be a surprise. Tornado count comparison.

[00:03:00]In Kansas City, if you live around Kansas City, or if you're in Illinois, you're like, "What? There's been less tornadoes than the than than a year ago?" Well, not in Illinois or Kansas City, okay? Kansas City near a record or maybe a record amount of tornadoes this year, mostly small, thank goodness. And Illinois has had some bigger ones, and they've had like 150 of those 934 tornadoes this year. But we are 400 behind a year ago. Social media can make it seem like there's tornadoes all the time, but we are 400 behind or so of last year. So, there you go. So, the the very interesting statistic here.

[00:03:40]>> Yeah, Gary, we're really keeping a close eye right now on what's going to happen over the next month. Farmers are. And so, as you look at how this pattern's repeating, you're saying El Niño is not influencing it yet. But do you think that the heart of the country has more chances for moisture? And in some areas they're saying at this point it's too much moisture. So, will we see some of that shut off?

[00:03:59]>> Yeah, we've had some of the fields that too much There's too much water, hail damage, all kinds of issues. The pattern that we are in is cycling and it's right on schedule. You can see what happened.

[00:04:12]That's the old dairy farm up in northern Kansas and the corn stalks got devastated by the hail that fell. So, that's been a problem.

[00:04:23]This same pattern will continue through the summer. So, it is likely going to stay wet over Kansas and Missouri into the first part of summer. We do think there's a significant probability of a heat wave around the first half of August. And we'll have some hot spells between now and then. But, yeah, this pattern we're in now, Tony, is going to continue through the summer. And so, some people show forecasts from the CFSv2 model, which is completely flawed.

[00:04:53]It doesn't use the cycling pattern technology we have. This year's pattern is the analog. What's happened already this year, I think we can all admit, is repeating over and over again.

[00:05:05]>> That That is fascinating. If people want more customized forecast or to get a hold of you, how can they do that?

[00:05:12]>> Well, they can get the model. You can get the week by week forecast. You can drill down to your country, if you're out of the country, to your state in the United States, and down to your county and get that day-by-day forecast.

[00:05:24]Contact us at [email protected] and we will do a demo for you. You can have that model. Every farmer should have it. 200 farmers around the country are already using it and planning and preparing and having bumper crops while their neighbors maybe did not by using this weather information. But, again, it's a [email protected] or you can go to weather2020.com and learn a lot more there.

[00:05:49]>> Gary Lezak, we appreciate you joining us this weekend. Thank you so much. Well, weather is typically the market [music] mover this time of year, but last week we did get a confirmation that China is back in the business [music] buying US soybeans. What does it mean for the markets ahead? We actually have Mark Gold and Naomi Bloom joining us next.

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