Inside Ogun APC: Gov Abiodun Vs Gbenga Daniel, Yayi Endorsement & 2027

追加: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Live from Lagos, I am Nif. Welcome everyone. Let's go beyond the headlines.

[00:00:06]The 2027 politics is no longer happening quietly behind closed doors. The alignments are forming, the endorsements are flying, and within the many party succession politics is already exposing fresh tensions. Our attention today is turn to state where Governor Dabodo is pushing for concessors arrangements ahead of the primaries uh urging aspirants to step down in the interest of party unity within the APC. But what supporters call political maturity critics describe as an attempt to tightly manage the succession process and avoid unpredictable contests. The debate intensified after Senator Guardola, popularly known as Yayi, emerged as the the preferred governorship concessors candidate of the APC establishment. And that triggered some resistance from interests within the party, reigniting questions around zoning, fairness, and internet democracy. At the senatorial level, the tensions are equally intense in Ugu east. Governor Abiodu's endorsement for the Senate seat currently occupied by former governor Binga Daniel has opened a fresh power struggle between two influential political camps especially after the controversy surrounding the APC caucus meeting in West the entrance of deputy governor into the Senate race is already reshaping the calculations around representation gender inclusion as well as the future political structure of that district. Tonight, we examine the alliances, the rivalries, and succession battles already redefining politics as we countdown to the big one in 2027. Joining me now from the studio is political affairs analyst Toby Joseph. Mr. Joseph, thank you for joining us.

[00:02:02]>> Thank you for having me. In fact, >> was a disaster yesterday, so we thought we should bring you to the studio.

[00:02:07]>> Thank God we are we are back in the studio. Uh let's begin with Yay's emergence as the APC preferred consensus governorship candidate.

[00:02:16]Is this truly consensus or like some say the establishment simply trying to avoid a divisive uh primary in that state?

[00:02:29]>> Okay. Um very good question.

[00:02:32]First, I I I think the word you're searching for is uh whether the leadership of the APC are trying to impose a candidate on on the party or on the members. And I think that's that's not true. I think what has happened is that uh senator um became too popular to be ignored uh for both incumbent governor for the former governors uh for members uh for leaders for even average voters for even members of other political parties. So they they saw him as someone they can't afford to lose. Don't forget he has been trying to you know get the parties ticket uh since 2011 that he actually tried to build a political structure in August state but you know former governor of Senator Bramusu did not allow that so gave him some political elbow and so he went back beat his time and then staged a comeback uh in 2023 when he became senator. Um but to be to be fair uh the consensus arrangement has not been without you know ripples >> and so I I must say but one thing you cannot take away from the consensus candidates senator himself is that he's tried to close ranks and build some kind of uh you know synergy with those who also showed interest in securing the party's ticket. So he's gone round to you know fratonize with them so they can work together be on the same page ahead of uh >> and it's an interesting dynamic for you because he was in Lagos and then came to but when you hear the governor insisting that nobody has been imposed that um and when you hear that aspirants have been persuaded to step down uh to the extent of you know possible reforms for their for their nomination forms and we hear even possible appointments.

[00:04:37]>> Well, >> does the party risk creating that impression that internet democracy is being carefully managed?

[00:04:44]>> Yes. You see, um, kudos to the emergence of the electoral act 2026 as amended.

[00:04:52]You must uh understand that that is something that we haven't seen before uh in our political space, our democratic experiment and journey. And why do I say this? Before now, we've always had three options in the electoral act for emergence of candidates. It's either indirect primaries or consensus or direct primaries. Now the electoral act 26 expon primaries and so we are left with just consensus and direct primaries. Now these two actually strengthen internal democracy because one direct primaries allows all members so far you're a bonafide registered member of the APC.

[00:05:36]You definitely have a say on who becomes candidate and that is why direct primaries allow all members to go to all the units in the world to actually say oh this is the candidate we want. Yes, governors have influence, political leaders have influence in the process.

[00:05:54]Yes, but at least members are carried along as against few delegates being chosen by party leaders and then when you hear the accusation, oh, they've dollarized the primary. So, you you know people who say that and the only difference now is just that the money will get to more people because if you can manipulate the main election, what's what's direct primary not to be able to manipulate? But the issue is even even that I I always say this uh defe even in general elections you cannot rig or manipulate an election where you're not popular. You can't it's it becomes difficult >> but you also have to put in mind party machineries.

[00:06:35]>> Yes.

[00:06:35]>> So you don't necessarily have to be popular. What you just need to do is to have loyalist handling each constituency where the election will hold so that those people can do the ground work for you. Isn't that how it works? So you you are the politician, >> but but how I'm not a politician. I'm an analyst here. But but you see I I I get your point. Uh but how do you build those loyalists that you talked about to do your bidding? It is by you know your popularity. It's by your political sagacity. So that is why you >> but it can be elite politics where you're popular amongst the stakeholders, those who call the shot but not necessarily you know the people. But despite despite despite the pressure for concessors, you know, some aspirants are still holding their ground at this point. How realistic is it for APC to avoid a direct primary?

[00:07:25]>> Well, um for some positions we we might be seeing the consensus arrangement working totally. Um for example I I don't think any of the aspirants governorship aspirants is going to go the whole length of the way to challenge in the direct primary I I don't think so >> already the even at the top level of APC president did not get the concessions yes >> I know you're aware now that it's it's going to be direct primary so how is going to be >> it's good it's good and and I and I say that it's good but I'm just trying to say that that is what is happening in APC in no state for example. That is not to say that when push comes to shove they will not go to direct primary and of course I think we all have a fair idea of where the pendulum will swing.

[00:08:18]uh but but for those who the consensus has really worked for example I may I'm able to say that uh ever since the emergence of um he's taken a step back um and has allowed the governor to do his thing when I said the governor to do his thing the governor has largely of course determined who gets what when it comes to the house of rep seats and the house of assembly seats And you know that he's also slugging it out with the former governor and his friend.

[00:08:53]>> It even gets more interesting when you go to East the reported exclusion of um former governor Daniel from that APC caucus meeting generated major attention.

[00:09:05]>> Yes.

[00:09:05]>> But beyond the drama itself, >> what does that incident reveal about the real power struggle inside APC today?

[00:09:14]Well, I I think it shows a level of sophistication um of the contenders, the the caliber of political leaders and quality of politicians in the party. Uh for you to have, you know, former governors in the party snugging it out, you know, having ego clashes, all those things matter. It points to the fact that uh the APC is not uh lacking when it comes to quality representation.

[00:09:43]>> It could also mean that they could risk an implosion if they don't handle it well.

[00:09:46]>> Yes, I was about to get there. So, but now how do you manage these egos? How do you manage this conflicting interest?

[00:09:54]That is where uh I think the president has to come in because uh I was on radio the other day and I was saying that what do you do if you are about to lose uh former governor Daniel East and you're about to also lose senator former governor central like you want to deny those two former governors senatorial ticket. So what happens uh in that in that situation if they decide to rock the boat and work for the opposition, it has not it has happened before. It is not something that will be alien to our political system uh in August state.

[00:10:38]It's something that has happened before.

[00:10:39]Some have done it openly. Senator Muso, for example, has done it openly, not once but twice. He did it in in 2019 and he did it in 2023.

[00:10:50]>> But he didn't have his way.

[00:10:51]>> But but he didn't have his way. But I'm just saying. But can the damage be done?

[00:10:56]>> Do you understand? Can the damage be done? Yes.

[00:10:58]>> But let us work out the political match if Governor Beu eventually moves to the Senate just hypothetically and Yayi becomes governor. Will that effectively produce a new dominant political block in state? Who do you say control the center of power post 2027?

[00:11:16]>> Well, August is very um it's very funny.

[00:11:22]Let me use the word funny when it comes to power. Um once you become a former governor of the state, you are a former governor.

[00:11:30]>> Uh especially a former governor that doesn't have that uh political structure that is as strong as uh the incumbents.

[00:11:39]And you also have to consider your performance and your popularity.

[00:11:43]>> You think the incumbent has consolidated the structure?

[00:11:46]>> I don't think so. I I believe largely that uh the the incumbent doesn't have that very strong political structure that can rival that of the incoming governor. Okay.

[00:12:00]>> Uh permit me to use that that word. So uh I I I feel it will boil down to his own performance as a sitting senator.

[00:12:09]>> Yeah. You will still have to win priories and contest election before it can ever be called a governor.

[00:12:16]>> Yes. That's why I said incoming. So and and that is just a v because that's why I didn't attach a name to it. So an incumbent who has the political structure will always have an edge over a former governor either is a sitting senator or not. So there you have gananiel and prince co the governor of state slugging it out. These are friends who have been friends for decades whatever their disagreements whatever the issues are. Um I was at uh uh a public function and then the the the governor was talking about it and I saw how angry he was about it, you know, throwing some jabs at Daniel. So I said, "Okay, okay." So friends friends could get their hands dirty sometimes.

[00:13:04]>> There was there was this church service where they announced the presence of um Otumba and then everyone cheered and then the governor said, "No, this is the house of God." Uh uh you see >> you have to show some >> since 2000 since 2011 that Daniel left power that has always been the case.

[00:13:25]Anywhere he enters anywhere he goes >> people will always cheer him.

[00:13:30]>> So it's going to be a big fight. Do you think the APC can survive it?

[00:13:33]>> That's why I'm saying >> whichever way he goes.

[00:13:37]>> How they manage it will determine how they survive it. But one factor which will determine whether they sink or swim is uh how the president waiting and one good thing is that I keep saying it enjoys a very you know huge followership >> uh and then that goodwill is there it cuts across and I think that will for the sake of yay they will be able to say okay okay okay let's not rock y's boat let's work together >> let's take a short break and then we'll turn our attention to west where The deputy governor, we understand, is also eyeing the Senate. Stay with us, everyone.

[00:14:26]>> Thank you for staying with us everyone.

[00:14:27]We discuss politics especially within the APC ahead of 2027. Toby Joseph, thank you for staying the course on the program. Let's turn now to West Deputy Governor uh No, is that how to pronounce her name?

[00:14:40]>> Yeah, no.

[00:14:41]>> That's a Muslim name, right?

[00:14:42]>> Yeah, it's a Muslim.

[00:14:44]>> Uh her Senate um ambition is now generating mixed conversations. Uh but do you think this ywa awari dynamics is strong enough to advance our cause or you think that people will start probing the performance of governor dapo and how relevant she was in that administration >> that administration brilliant question there now let let's talk about um the person first um deputy governor excellency see um highly cerebral, intelligent, eloquent woman.

[00:15:26]If you've uh met her or seen her speak in public, you would never doubt her competence. Apart from that, she's humble. Um she's also down to earth, very loyal. And when I say loyal, a loyal party woman also loyal to her governor >> who she has served for eight years. If she was this lawyer, she would have been sent packing after the first term. Uh, all right. So, beyond that, she's a qualified engineer. She had a civil engineering um, you know, BSC at University of Lagos, then went to the Imperial College of Science and Technology for her masters, you know, in London. So, forget about her her CV is highly rich. Now before you now move beyond the CV you want to look at some dynamics that are very key and I won't miss words here why people are looking at her and a couple of others in Adora is because of how strategic Adora local government is not only when it comes to west but also when it comes to state is a very you Adora, let me talk about Adora is a very strategic local government. It's one of uh the local government with the highest voter population. And if you have that, you have the high industrial clusters in that local government. You have urbanized uh towns in that local government. You have a high youth population in that local government. You you have that local leading to two borders of state. So from you can link to se border you can link to border. It shares boundaries with Lagos. So you see similarities in the voting behavior of an average voter in voter and that of legosians. So that is why they mostly uh follow the party that legosians vote for uh in that local government. beyond that start from 200 um three and uh I start I I I think anybody can fact check this there is no time out of the local out of the elections held from 2003 in state where any local government has produced more votes than AD and that's where is from all right the deputy governor but you have to look at the other aspect parents who are also showing uh force and saying oh so you have you have you have you know you have them saying oh you have who I believe enjoys the support of uh the governor you know saying oh it's a it's it's also something that we we can grab but she's from there from a well-known >> after all she's done she's done eight years as deputy governor sometimes I I wonder personally whether moving from governor or deputy governor to the national assembly any form of promotion or a way to perpetrate yourself as a politician in >> I think it has to do with the quality of representation that you want to give your people for example as a deputy governor what can she really do except what the governor designates that she does >> and that's very important because when you hear our supporters argue they say a candidacy perhaps could energize women professionals younger ones in west but the big question will be does she have the grassroots machinery needed to survive that could, you know, become a fiercely contested APC primary. You mentioned those names because a deputy usually is just supporting and is not as prominent as the governor who calls the shot.

[00:19:23]>> Yes, that that's why I said the leaders are and party members are sharply divided um over the candidacy of the open west. uh and and I think the reason that is is because you know the person who is leaving that senatorial seat is the one who is already vying for the governorship and he's from Ywa side for side of West so people have largely you know accepted their fate that oh the next senator of west will be coming from you know Aurori so that That's why that is there. But I I think that for the fact that >> is she the only aspirant from Aurori?

[00:20:09]>> No, she's not. But she's the only woman.

[00:20:12]>> All right. Um she's the only woman out of the top contenders. And I think the governor has done well with woman representation in this uh you know consensus arrangement of ticket. Um the two commissioners who are women in his in his cabinet have been given house of representative ticket. Honorable and of course honorable the honorable commissioner for women affairs and social development also got her ticket for so you see but two out of how many seats do you understand? So if we are also going to have uh two male senators u from east and central why not have a female uh senator also from west.

[00:20:54]These are the you know arguments for and against the candidacy of >> we used to that sentiment of yes we need more women representation at the national assembly but until it becomes law that we have dedicated seats for them it still boils down to political structures how popular you are not as governor or deputy governor but >> at the grassroots because it's not a statewide election now it's the popularity that you exude >> yes it's local key for me that that's why I said you know I was talking about the numbers so let's follow the numbers since 2023 you you cannot win the governorship election of state if you fail to win ADU and there is no time that ADU has ever given less than 36 35,000 votes to the winner of the election um in in in the last election for example 2023 alone the three the top three candidates got over 81,000 vote from that local government alone out of just about 500,000 plus votes in total of the top three. So you can are you kidding me? The incumbent himself got over 36,000 votes from local government. So you cannot afford to joke with that local government. Yay himself who is trying to win the governorship cannot afford to to joke with that local government. So your candidates for the senatorial seat in west, there must be somebody who can actually galvanize those vote, both the vote, the the the youth population there, the artisans, uh the elites, the working class, the market men and women, all of them who are in that local government to say, "Hey, she's our daughter. Oh, she's our son and she's the one or he's the one we want." And I think that is what and I I let me quickly add this. uh the family me I I think um the governor should begin to look at more female representation beyond that also look beyond what some have said oh how can the governor go to the senate and his deputy is also going to the senate so there will be equals on the floor of of of of the chamber I I think that's that's uh >> why should I know of >> that is funny that is funny no man should be thinking like that the position of uh uh the the the the the senator should not be you know subjected to such uh sentiment.

[00:23:20]>> People actually have the liberty to think what they think. Personally I'm thinking what are they even going to do in the senate in the first place. you have done 8 years go back home it's okay let somebody else >> anybody can think anything I mean you've done 8 years go back home and let any other person do it but outside APC because we have to go now um what's the dominance of the opposition like in no I know you know adhu was um with the PDP at the time PDP is now split in two um Labor parties not also as strong as it used to be with the defection of PB even the ADC we've had PTB and Quacoso move but what's the grassroot opposition like Inogon as we speak today.

[00:23:58]>> Well, I I I must say that um if you go back to the 2023 elections, like I said, the incumbent uh Governor Auab fought tooth to nail uh to actually win that election. It was too close to call. Uh and that shows clearly that the opposition is on ground. that name you mentioned, honorable, is no pushover and he's not somebody that I think will say, "Oh, I'm going to sleep. It's it's done and dusted. I've gotten the the parties ticket. I'm going." So, but I also feel that the the venture platform that will use will determine what he gets and of course the other candidate in the senatorial elections and in house of assembly and house of rep. But but if you are if you are to ask me uh I I think the APC will carry the day in the governorship election that with what I'm looking looking at in my political barometer.

[00:25:04]>> I mean with the divided opposition both at the national and state level I find I find it difficult for a disunited opposition to dislodge a >> APC. You hear that soundtrack says it's it's time to go. Thank you so much for your insight. have this weekend with political affairs analyst Toby Joseph.

[00:25:24]>> It's a pleasure.

[00:25:25]>> Interesting days ahead in Oun state, not only in OU, across Nigeria. We're looking keenly into the parties. Today we took some time to explore the opportunities and what to look out for within the ruling APC. Uh thank you everyone for being a part of it.

[00:25:41]Remember, you can watch it again at midnight and 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. by