EXTREMELY Rare June Arctic Blasts Upcoming... Record Strong El Nino Building?

Added: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]In today's video, we're going to be diving into the upcoming pattern as normal, despite what you see on screen.

[00:00:07]We'll explain that in just a minute.

[00:00:08]We're only going to talk about that for a second. It's a really big deal, though. We're going to be talking about the upcoming pattern. We do expect to see continued colder temperatures, honestly, still prevailing throughout the first half of June is pretty much what we've been expecting and what we still do expect. We've had tons of just highly unusual weather, and part of it is our impending very possibly the strongest El Niño in recorded history that we are about to start moving into.

[00:00:34]And I've made videos about this and mentions about this before, but the most recent model guidance that has come in for this ENSO or El Niño data has completely blown me away. And it's all coming in today as of May 31st. We're going to discuss that alongside all of our storms that are upcoming, temperature patterns, and everything within just the next couple of weeks. But, firstly, we're taking a look at something that's going to affect the next year or so.

[00:00:58]And the newest data, as you can see, this came out today on May 31st. This is the Climate Prediction Center's CFSv2 model forecast for the Niño 3.4, which is how we measure El Niño or La Niña.

[00:01:12]And this black line that I've drawn on screen here is our previous strongest El Niño in recorded history, which is just at about like 2.6 to 2.8 degrees Celsius above average. Um we are seeing the model guidance here from the CFS model.

[00:01:29]Not only is every single member, because this is an ensemble, so every colored line you see there is a different little part of the model, uh the different prediction with slightly different algorithms and everything, but every single member by October or November of this year is crossing above our previously strongest recorded El Niño ever, uh which is just unbelievable. The mean average is at like 3.7, 3.8 degrees above average, which is over a full degree uh above what our previous strongest El Niño was. So, this would be by far stronger than our last strongest El Niño we've ever recorded. Um so, yeah. Pretty unbelievable stuff, and I wish I could tell you this is going to cause this to happen. You know what I mean? When an El Niño is this strong, it causes this. But, we've never seen it before. It's uncharted territory, which is unbelievable and incredibly rare in weather and meteorology. It's a It's an exciting thing, but it's a very, very um startling thing. These El Niño events already impact so many people around the entire globe. I can't imagine what a super beyond super El Niño like this would cause. Um is there a chance that we hover more around like the 2.5 to 3° above average area, like pretty close to our strongest ever, but in in in line with what we've seen before?

[00:02:55]It's very possible still, but we continue to see guidance actually escalating how strong they think this thing is going to get. It's actually increasing on these models, and to now see every single model showing at least a record-breaking El Niño is unbelievable here from this latest CFSv2 uh forecast. So, I just wanted to talk about that for a moment. Let's go ahead and dive into our next 2 weeks. Uh we're going to talk more about that El Niño, obviously, throughout the year. It's going to affect the hurricane season, summer, the fall, the winter, probably next spring as well. It's something that we're going to be talking about throughout the next 12 months. Uh now, looking at today, this afternoon, it's actually a stunning day along the East Coast. Far below normal temperatures, but we're sitting at about like 72° today, here in Virginia, at least. Not a cloud in the sky. It is like literally room temperature outside. It's like artificially good outside, I would say, today. Uh we We have precipitation mostly throughout the northern Rockies, northern plains here, parts of the deep south and southeast. We also see some lingering here for New England as they've had a bit of a weaker low up there.

[00:04:00]Um a lot of this coming in the form of thunderstorms. We will of course look at the Storm Prediction Center outlooks at the end of this video.

[00:04:06]>> [snorts] >> Uh Monday, tomorrow on June 1st, is a little bit more interesting as we get some lower pressure off the East Coast, but it's kind of moving directly towards the southeast, which is a little bit of a unique flow. Uh typically we don't see lows move in that direction, but that is kind of what we're seeing here. Uh and we do have overall thunderstorms and showers possible along the East Coast for tomorrow on Monday, the 1st of June.

[00:04:29]Again, northern Rockies and plains can't rule out a shower or thunderstorm there.

[00:04:34]Tuesday here on the 2nd of June, uh still can't rule out thunderstorms or showers along the East Coast. There is a couple of drier spots now uh sitting around, so it is pretty scattered about.

[00:04:44]Uh but again, another day nothing can be, you know, completely ruled out. Uh and this quarter continues to be kind of the main area seeing precipitation.

[00:04:53]Southeast, deep south, up the plains and Rockies kind of area still for like the 3rd day in a row there. Wednesday the 3rd, everything does kind of move a little bit further eastward as we see some thunderstorm potential across the plains, Midwest, and deep south. And certainly this is something that we're watching for the potential uh thunderstorms and even severe weather, especially Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas here.

[00:05:14]Uh definitely possible. Doesn't look like a crazy, crazy, huge event to me or anything, but definitely could feature some severe weather. Thursday the 4th as well, we see these active areas in here.

[00:05:25]These areas being active is just a red flag in general. Again, we're watching Thursday the 4th as well here for that reason. Your jet stream is pretty flat, so this is one of those warmer periods honestly for the East. Uh we do see a lot of this precipitation over time, like Friday the 5th here, continuing to move eastward, really, really saturated here in the deep south, plains, Midwest.

[00:05:44]Uh lots of thunderstorms happening across these areas as we head later into the week. Saturday here, we can even get the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast involved. And this kind of takes us back to a flow that we saw, you know, for a lot of the spring throughout March and April, where we would kind of have some higher pressure and and a lot of precipitation kind of just dodging the Southeast here and moving around um these areas and a lot of our severe weather and thunderstorms would be further to the north, Midwest, Ohio Valley, Northeast, where they've had more thunderstorms this year than most years by this point. Sunday is a lot of the same, although we're moving further south with that precipitation here, finally.

[00:06:22]Uh ridge in the east, trough in the west here, super interesting. And we get a lot of precipitation Monday the 8th, Tuesday the 9th, Wednesday the 10th, a lot of that activity in the east, but we do transcend into a again, warmer west, colder east still by time we're looking at the 10th, 11th, 12th. A lot of thunderstorm chances in the Southeast here later on towards the midpoint of June from what we're seeing. Um and then this is kind of a turning point, perhaps. We get some lower pressure going across the center of the nation.

[00:06:52]And this is by default going to encourage uh these kind of uh I would say rising motion in the east where we could get some warmth, humidity, even daily thunderstorms occurring with the low in that position.

[00:07:06]It seems like our Bermuda high is pretty well offshore. It's also encouraging some lifting into the east. And this is the exact type of temperature pattern that could end up being a heat wave type of pattern with daily thunderstorms. Can't rule that out when we've got the lows over here, the high where it's at. Uh this is definitely a promising look at the end of the model run. So, we pump the brakes. This is at the very, very end, but certainly um interesting to see that flip occurring.

[00:07:33]We'll see if the GFS model has it because we do enter into this kind of stormy central states for pretty much the majority of this week. And as we head into the weekend and even the beginning of next week, we start to talk more about the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast corner of the nation. It feels familiar to what the European model was saying. This is definitely a good sign when they're both in sync like this. And then we get uh kind of the same thing occurring as we head towards the midpoint of the month where we get this lower pressure building just to the east of the Rockies in here.

[00:08:03]Um it seems like our high is in in perfect position to where we're basically getting this lifting motion from both sides. And again, this is how you get really, really hot East Coast patterns uh and also a lot of thunderstorm activity from the Gulf. And we do kind of see that occur. Although, we do generally cool at the very tail end of this model run where we see this lifting now occurring. This is for the 16th, keep in mind, so take it with a grain of salt. But for the Rockies and a lot of the plains, we get this lifting. And we actually get a more cooling trend into the east um as a result of that motion.

[00:08:36]So, definitely a little bit of a difference at the tail end of the model run, which is to be expected at you know, 15, 16 days out. These models can usually have an idea, but not a solid foundation. We see it flip-flopping from model run to model run. And in this case, from the European model to the GFS model, we see massive differences um even though they have the same starting data. So, yeah, usually that's why confidence is dropping significantly after 10 days. Let's take a look here at the uh total precipitation here uh throughout the model run. And this is the European model.

[00:09:08]Kind of the same areas we were talking about a lot, the Rockies, plains, uh and then into the deep south and southeast here is the highest amounts of precipitation. We get a little bit less here in the northeast corner of the nation, and certainly here for a lot of the West Coast. But pretty much everybody in the middle and southeastern portions of the nation getting a lot. Uh and the GFS model is going to agree, although we get more starting to go for the Great Lakes, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and northeast here. Uh still the exception with that West Coast area, but this is like the entire eastern half doing pretty well as far as precipitation. So, probably the GFS model is a little bit more favorable overall for what we need to occur to help alleviate some of these droughts we have going on. Temperature anomaly-wise, we've got this really, really rich backdoor cold front Arctic air flow.

[00:09:56]What that means is basically from the northeast down, we're seeing colder air move into the eastern states. Typically, that's coming from the west in the form of a cold front or more so from like central Canada down into the entire eastern half of the nation. Now, we're getting a little bit more exclusively for the immediate eastern states this cold air coming straight from eastern Canada. It's a little bit more, you know, less common, but I'm going to draw this arrow. You'll see the flow here when I put it in motion. We can see that really, really moving down the East Coast here.

[00:10:29]Now, we do eventually get cut off because we've got some warmer air kind of cutting it off, getting in the way, and we do end up with a cooler pattern over the deep south. This is really common in El Niños.

[00:10:40]We do get warmer air spreading into the east, especially for that first week of June.

[00:10:44]Looks really promising here, and then we do get that cold air again descending in. This is just not usual. You typically do not see these really, really pure Arctic blasts moving into the eastern half of the nation like this in June, mid-June here. This is just unbelievable if we see something like this occur.

[00:11:03]And although I will say this model probably looks warmer than our previous ones cuz I can count numerous days here even just like a week from now where we're seeing really warm temperatures including this weekend. So, there is some back and forth to it, which is definitely an improvement. But, we've just got this really, really odd Arctic air moving down considering the time of year we're in.

[00:11:25]Storm Prediction Center outlooks here, day one for Sunday the 31st, final day of May, and we have three lighter green areas where we have a general thunderstorm risk. So we expect general thunderstorms, but in this area we do not expect severe weather to occur.

[00:11:39]Of course, still pay attention, anything's possible. We do see the darker green areas there and that's your level one marginal risk where we do expect some isolated severe weather to be occurring in the middle of the nation. And then for Kansas and Missouri, that's your level two slight risk where we expect more scattered about severe weather to occur. Day two here very, very similar lighter green, darker green and the slight risk there for the Rockies and plains for tomorrow on Monday, the 1st of June. And then day three finally here, center of the nation is still kind of stealing the show with a slight risk there. We have two marginal risks and a lot of areas dealing with the general thunderstorm risk as well in the lighter greens. And obviously as we're in June, as we're in July, it's very common to see large, large areas seeing those lighter green general thunderstorm risks because of the humidity and temperatures that we see during the summertime. It's really, really hard to rule out thunderstorms and there's many days as you guys know where, you know, you have a 30 to 60% chance of thunderstorms almost daily, especially in the deep south and southeast.

[00:12:36]And again, that's due to just the conditions always being a little bit sustainable for thunderstorm activity.

[00:12:41]And that's why we get these huge lighter green areas here almost daily.

[00:12:47]With all that stuff being said guys, be sure to subscribe. We upload every single day. You can even hit the bell icon for daily notifications when we upload so you never miss one. Be sure to like the video if you did enjoy it.

[00:12:55]Leave a comment down below and I'll see you guys in the next video.