Watching for a Pattern Change...

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Saturday, May 9th, 2026. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. Waiting on the pattern change shortterm. Some of us are so so very hot. We're just baking out there. And one of the reasons we are so dry, but we are watching this what's going on off the coast of Africa. More and more tropical waves are going to emerge right now. A lot of that dry air in place. There are some big exceptions watching over toward the Gulf. And as we work our way through this month, we're going to see a lot of moisture eventually building in the western Caribbean and kind of shooting north.

[00:00:29]So, we'll keep an eye on any early season tropical development as we go forward. I'll put out those updates for you on that. Of course, welcome to thousands of new subscribers. Thank you for being part of this weather community, especially as we get into the hurricane season. Watching this big area of rain, parts of Mexico, Guatemala, been watching El Salvador overnight. So, while the rain is not widespread clearly, we still have it in some spots.

[00:00:53]And where we get it this time of year, we get big downpours. We saw that yesterday in Florida. We saw it yesterday and last night in Guatemala and parts of Mexico. Now, here we are, Dominica, Barbados, Trinidad, and Tobago where I will be visiting very shortly.

[00:01:06]I'll keep you posted on that. You can see right here, another area of moisture starting to move off. Now, we're generally dry. We've had that dust around. I've been watching your comments. Let me know if you've been getting some of the dust. But eventually, more and more of these tropical waves move off and come our way. And as we get into later in the month, especially early in June, we'll see a better chance of rain and even potentially tropical development. But this is a no hype channel. Not seeing signs of tropical development right now.

[00:01:32]I'll show you that in just a second.

[00:01:34]Now, 7-day rain outlook. You see as just kind of a a big picture uh generality, a lot of this brown shading and even this red, that's below average rain. Doesn't mean we can't get downpours, right?

[00:01:48]Guatemala for example, but overall below average rain for us in the Eastern Caribbean, St. Lucia, Barbados, Haiti, the DR, Jamaica, we're going to see a few downpours, but the rain chances below average. Above average though, right through parts of the Gulf, back to through parts of Mexico and where we're below average. We're so very hot, right?

[00:02:06]I've been watching your comments. Let me know your location if you're feeling that extra heat. We know it heats up and you see this orange shading which includes a lot of us. This yellow shading above average temperatures where we are dry we are super hot. Now I mentioned tropical development not quite yet across the Caribbean, the Atlantic back through the Gulf, but we'll keep an eye on those tropical waves as we get deeper into the month because I do think we're going to see some moisture building uh later in the month. You get those cycles where there's just some extra moisture around. So, we're going to watch out for some signs of development. And then we work our way here. The Eastern Pacific hinting at a little activity, but overall, nothing crazy. The Eastern Pacific, we're just days away from the start of the hurricane season. Water temperatures are warmer out here. So, the hurricane season starts earlier in the Eastern Pacific. Know that in Central America and Mexico, watching you carefully, especially with an El Nino pattern, there's usually uh more named systems out there in the Eastern Pacific. Now, we'll get into this in a second. Florida north, watching the scattered rain.

[00:03:04]Mexico, Guatemala, Jamaica. As I mentioned, for us, we're going to get some downpours, but others were just so hot and were so dry, scattered or very isolated really. Uh, St. Martin, Antigga, Barbuda, and Guilla, St. Barts, back through St. Kits and Neas. Then by the time we get from Mother's Day into Monday, so we go from tomorrow into Monday, watching some of the moisture, Trinidad and Tobago, uh, Guyana, Cernom, some of that rain could build as we get into the next working week. And then starting to build again Costa Rica and Panama. Elsewhere, very hot. So, we're going to start to watch those tropical waves and see if they hang together and see if they bring us some of the uh some rain. Now, tropical waves could be a good thing and give us some rain, but of course, we don't want development out of those. Now watching a lot of action up here, Georgia, North Florida, back through Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, uh, New England, seeing that rain, very active Atlantic region of Canada, anywhere from Newf Finland back toward New Brunswick. There's the shot of rain tomorrow working its way toward Bermuda.

[00:04:03]So heads up in Bermuda, better chance of rain for tomorrow. But these surges of moisture. Here's Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico right here. More rain right in through here. And some of this could be severe, some gusty winds. And you see this front right up through the Atlantic region of Canada, clip and Cape Cod, down through the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and then that will move its way toward Bermuda as well. Watch on the seas a little choppier in the central Caribbean, Atlantic passageways with the generally dry weather. Not too bad. Just be mindful if you do get a shower, there'll be a couple thunderstorms around, so we're just going to be mindful of that. Looking at the rain for us in the Bahamas, we don't have a whole lot of rain. Best chance northern Bahamas with some of the rain just kind of coming out of uh central Florida with some scattered storms later today and tomorrow. But heavier stuff northern Gulf where upwards of 3 to 5 ines of rain will be possible. Cayman Islands, we don't have a lot. Jamaica, as I mentioned, Cuba, we're going to see some isolated storms that could give us a couple of those brief downpours that give us upwards of about 25 millimeters of rain. But some of us dry, others get a couple showers. Same thing. Haiti, the DR mainly dry. the Turks and Caos isolated Puerto Rico and this would be passing variety but Guadaloop Dominico we may get a couple passing showers the next few days that could amount to about 50 millimeters of rain sabasia St. Kits Neaserat and Guilla St. Martin St. Barts Antigga Barbuda just kind of clipping by Martineique a hit or miss shower we still have some of the dust around little bit of the dust in the atmosphere St. Lucia Barbados easterly flow so passing shower St. defense of the Grenardines, Grenada, back through Trinidad and Tobago. We'll keep an eye next week over toward Trinidad, Guyana, and Cernom where the rain will build with these tropical waves moving in. So, you could see some of the moisture back toward Cernom. Some spots could get upwards of 100 uh maybe upwards of 150 millimeters of some rain. Uh Costa Rica, we're about half and half. Venezuela, not as much in the short term, the next three days. Colombia, mainly interior sections, but some of us, Costa Rica and Panama, dry, others getting dumped on, not a lot. Providencia, San Andreas, Honduras, Nicaragua. But monitoring this again, some of those showers and storms even at night that kind of blow up. We need to watch out for the river flooding. El Salvador, Guatemala, back through parts of Mexico, Bise, in the Yucatan Peninsula. While the rain chances not zero, it is still low. Let me know in Bise or across the Yucatan if you do get any showers. Better chance on Mexico City. And there's the up and around uh area with this heavier rain back toward the southern United States and then building back toward Bermuda.

[00:06:33]Bermuda will have some spots of a couple inches of rain or 50 millimeters of rain especially for tomorrow, Mother's Day, as that rolls through. So very hot and dry pattern. That is overall there's those exceptions. I was just talking about the flooding. That's the issue this time of year. Even if we're in a dry pattern, uh being in the tropics, there's so much heat energy. So, if a couple ingredients come in place, you could really get those downpours with intense flooding. And I don't want anyone caught off guard just because the pattern is overall dry. There are those exceptions. So, be mindful of some of the rivers, tropical waves on the move.

[00:07:04]And we'll watch out for any signs of development, but more moisture building as the month goes on and we will be tracking it together. So, I really hope you're doing well. Tell your friends, family. I said hello and have a wonderful Saturday ahead.