$IBRX Technical Analysis & Key Article Review: Expectations versus Current Market Pricing

[00:00:01]Hey guys, I am back. It's been a few days. Thank you all for uh attending my uh live stream that didn't happen. I did see some people showed up because I did see some of the comments, but on that day I caught a a little bit of a cold and I woke up early to try to get this thing up and running. I thought it was going to be smooth and it just wasn't.

[00:00:27]So, thank you for for showing up and I'm going to do a Twitter spaces to kind of com commemorate and you guys can ask me anything. The stage will be open. I don't expect to talk about charts because it won't be a visual presentation. So, please come with your questions. Uh I will talk generally about the macroeconomics, fundamentals and technicals of anything you want to bring up.

[00:00:51][clears throat] Excuse me. That being said, uh let's just jump right into sort of an update I have for IBRX in the chart. Not really much going on since we last updated. This is my expectation. This breakout here of the RSI on the daily. We're on the daily here. And this is a daily fib level retracement. The major levels are going to be 618 at six bucks, which I don't expect it to get there unless there's bad news.

[00:01:17]And then the major major supports been at the 050 which is between 7.15 and 750 here or 770 the line that I drew and you just got to be patient. I mean um there's no no news is kind of good news right now. Uh we're in uh sort of a lull period for immunity bio. Some other stocks are popping off uh such as Celis.

[00:01:40]Celis is baking in the news that they're going to have a very smooth sailing. the CEO has been giving out signals. Uh I would take those signals as appropriate, but for today I'm going to look at IBRX.

[00:01:53]I see the Ballinger bands are coming in a little bit. That's let me just zoom in a little bit here. You see you see how they're curling in. You see that? That's always a good thing for volatility. It might it might go down to five, but it's a good thing for volatility loading up.

[00:02:08]So, I would look for something like this.

[00:02:11]Let's draw a new line like uh for like like like like this. And I'm a bad artist so excuse me. And then for the Ballinger bands to tighten up tighten up here and then explode, right? And explode could also go like that. I'm just being fair.

[00:02:29]And I I also wanted to cover this stock outlook after Q1 results and new FDA review. This was interesting to me. Um and it's I'm going to do a two for Tuesday here. So, I'm going to try to release two videos. I'm going to keep IBRX as a singular video for my community that follows me. I just want to say that you could tell a lot about a stocks community and IBRX is highly professional, highly in tuned people with what's going on, I would say, versus I'm not going to badmouth other communities. I'm just going to say IBRX versus and a lot of logic. Uh sometimes I for another stock I do, sometimes I get you're an idiot, you know, and that doesn't bother me. It just tells me about their community, tells me about their expectations. So, first and foremost, I'm a market player in the psychology of the market. That's where I made my bread and butter in grad school and and really took a liking to the market because the technicals, the mathematics can be learned, but the psychology must be experienced. And so, I really enjoy that. So, let's get into it. After 289 uh% surge, the setup is less about what's next and more about what's already been priced in. I agree. What has been priced in? Well, we know that the FDA accepting the SBA has been priced in. I didn't think it was. I was wrong. I'll be the first to tell you I'm wrong when I'm wrong. I thought that was going to drive price.

[00:03:52]So, what's what I don't think is now priced in is the PDUFA, the PDUFA.

[00:03:58]And I also know that Q2 earnings are not priced in because those will come out in July or August. They're scheduled for August, but I think Patrick likes to pre-announce. Patrick Adcock, he likes to pre-announce. He came out early in April to pre-announce. And then they verified in May for Q1. So, I think another pre-announce is in order in July. So, keep your eyes open for July next month. And then um I think the PDUFA will be expedited. It's just my feeling. I don't think it's going to be in January. So, in other words, this is the time for us to be accumulating if we believe in the stock, which we do. We believe in I see all Patrick's post just like you do. I see bullish Brock making a lot of sense.

[00:04:40]Um, and everything makes sense to be buying. A little bit of my strategy here before I go back into that is I'll buy a tech stock. I'll buy something like Dell after President Trump says to buy Dell.

[00:04:52]I'll take that as serious because he said in the past to buy other things and they've gone up. So, I'll buy Dell and I'll make a little bit of money. You know, I'm not swinging big and I'll take a little bit of that earnings and I'll put it into IBRX down here. So, that's how I kind of reup my liquidity. And then I just saw that Huelet Packard mooned and I recommended this to a family member of mine. I mean, Jesus.

[00:05:20]And um I wasn't early on this. I would get in after earnings here, but again, the trend is my friend. So, oh my goodness. Oh my god. So, I'm going to probably buy this today late, but I'm going to buy it to make a little bit of money and then sell it right away. I'm not going to get married to it. You see what I'm saying? I'm not going to be like, "Oh, this is my new baby. I'm going to hold it for 5 years." No. I'm buying it. And I understand a lot of you guys aren't like that. So, I don't encourage it. This is not financial advice at all. I'm just telling you what I do to stack IBRX. I'll take some things that are pumping in the market right now and I'll deploy a little bit of money and I'll see if I can either make if I make good. If I lose, I cut losses right away and then I I just jam it right back into Immunity Bio because I believe it's a good buy down here. So again, let's take it from the top. The base case, it's an inline performance profile tied to Antiva's commercial trajectory with near-term upside requiring continued proof the demand is still accelerating after the run after the price run. Okay, so what this means to me, let me break this down.

[00:06:28]The base case is that the revenue will grow. How much? This article doesn't say. In my opinion, I'm looking for 10 to 15% quarter on quarter. And if you guys recall, 44.9 million was their sales Q1. So if you times 44.9 times 1.15, you get uh I don't know, 48 million, you know, something like that.

[00:06:53]I don't have a calculator, but I'm just, you know, spitballing here. And so that's what I would expect for Q2. Now, if it's higher than my expectations, it's probably going to move the stock.

[00:07:02]Okay, so I'm buying ahead of that. And I believe that that's coming in a month from now. And I did buy some options on October expiry. Okay, IVRX has already delivered. The shares are trading at 23.1 times forward 12 months. That's a little high, but again, it's deserving. These guys are comparing it to the subindustry of biotech. That's not fair. It's probably uh looking at all medium and small cap biotechs versus 23.1. But IBRX is like uh immunotherapy for your whole body. I know it's for um bladder only right now, but the market says, well, no, no, no, no, no.

[00:07:45]Given what Patrick has been saying, we're assigning this a market cap of $8 billion, right? It's at $8 is about 8 billion market cap. We are expecting this to keep progressing and as such, they get a higher premium on their price to sales. That's my interpretation as a market technician.

[00:08:06]It obviously raises the bar for ex execution especially for a company whose revenue base is still concentrated in a single marketed product. That's NMIBC bladder cancer for CIS carcinoma institutu plus or minus papillary single marketed product. Again the market in my opinion it prices this in all over the world for all types of cancer eventually. That's how the market works.

[00:08:33]It never works on now or in the past. It always works on the future. So, I want you to keep that in mind. And this stuff is just arbitrary. I'm not really going to go over that. But that's what I wanted to leave you guys with is this idea that, you know, I see a lot of comments, why isn't it going? Oh, it's only going down. Well, it's up 200 and some percent a year this year, 200%.

[00:08:55]and to get up 200% and maintain that 200% increase. They're going to work a lot of things into the price. And that's what you're seeing now. If earnings come back and they're really good, which I think they're going to be, and the FDA comes back and P PDUFAS them, which I think they're going to do because the FDA got the FDA cleaned house.

[00:09:20]And so there's a lot of things on the table that are uncertain that are not worked into the price and there's a lot of things that are worked into the price such as the SPLA.

[00:09:30]So if this is informative information for you, please like, please share, subscribe, and give me a comment. And again, I apologize. Listen, time is so important to me. I lived in China for a long time, and time is like the number one commodity. So if I waste your time in any way, like if I don't sh like I was sick and I still showed up to for the expectation to go live, I don't want to waste people's time. You're giving me your time. That's like the valuable commodity that you can ever give me like gold. And so I'm going to have a Twitter spaces next Sunday night America time.

[00:10:08]And again, it's going to be a lot less about visuals because it's the spaces.

[00:10:13]It's more audio. But I'm just going to get on there and stay on there. And you know, thank you for for subscribing and following me and supporting the channel and uh just answering any questions that you have maybe about me myself. Um and and it's all for you. So, I'm going to end it there. Thank you and have a good week and I'll see you soon.