The Ceasefire Is Ending. Here Is What Happens in the Next 7 Days. | Prof. Jiang Xueqin

追加: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Okay, so today I want to talk about something that is happening right now, not in the past, not in theory, right now, today. And I want to give you my best analysis of what is going to happen in the next 7 days because the ceasefire between America and Iran is ending. And what happens next will define the entire direction of this war and possibly the entire direction of the world. Okay, so let's begin. First, I want to make sure we all understand what the ceasefire actually is because most people in the media are describing it incorrectly.

[00:00:31]They are calling it a peace deal. They are calling it a diplomatic breakthrough. They are calling it progress. And I want to tell you very clearly, it is none of those things.

[00:00:41]This ceasefire is not peace. This ceasefire is a pause, a temporary pause in fighting that was brokered by Pakistan on April 8th, 2026 after 40 days of intense American and Israeli bombing of Iran. And I want to explain to you exactly why this pause happened because the reason it happened tells you everything about what is going to happen next. America did not stop bombing Iran because it was winning. America stopped bombing Iran because the Strait of Hormuz was closed and a closed Strait of Hormuz means 20% of the world's oil supply is disrupted. It means oil prices go to $95, $100, maybe $150 a barrel. It means the global economy starts shaking.

[00:01:22]It means American stock market starts falling. And it means Trump's political position at home starts collapsing. And Iran did not agree to a ceasefire because it was losing. Iran agreed to a ceasefire because it had already achieved its strategic objective in the short term. It had demonstrated to the entire world that it could close the most important shipping lane on the planet. It had demonstrated that $50,000 drones could destroy billion-dollar American weapon systems. It had demonstrated that after 40 days of the most intense American bombing campaign since Vietnam, Iran was still standing, still fighting, still launching missiles. That is what Iran wanted to show the world. And the ceasefire gave it time to show that message while consolidating its position. So both sides paused. Not because they wanted peace, but because both sides needed time. Now here is the critical question.

[00:02:11]What happened during this ceasefire period? Did anything get resolved? Did the two sides come closer together? And the answer, which will not surprise you if you have been following my analysis, is no. Almost nothing was resolved. And the gap between the two sides is, if anything, wider now than when the ceasefire started. Let me walk you through exactly what happened step-by-step. The ceasefire was announced on April 8th. Two weeks was the agreed period. Within hours of the announcement, J.D. Vance, the Vice President of the United States, stood up and called it a fragile truce, not a deal, not peace, a fragile truce. That is the American Vice President describing his own ceasefire. That tells you something important about how seriously the Americans themselves are taking it. On April 11th, the first round of direct talks happened in Islamabad, Pakistan. This was historic in one narrow sense. It was the highest-level direct contact between America and Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. J.D. Vance, Steve Whitcoff, and Jared Kushner flew to Islamabad. The Iranians sent their Parliament speaker Gallibaf and Foreign Minister Aragchi. They talked, and they left without any agreement. Then the ceasefire started being violated almost immediately. America imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, meaning ships could not bring imports into Iran by sea. Iran called this a pretext for violating the ceasefire and a potential crime of war. Iran started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. America started clearing those mines by force. American destroyers tried to transit the strait.

[00:03:47]Iranian forces attacked them with missiles, drones, and small boats.

[00:03:50]America struck back with air strikes on Iranian military facilities inside Iran.

[00:03:55]So, here you have a so-called ceasefire during which both sides are actively fighting each other in the Strait of Hormuz. This is what J.D. Vance meant by fragile truce. It is a ceasefire in name only. And then Trump extended the ceasefire, not because progress was made, but because Iran had asked Pakistan to request more time to submit a new proposal. And Trump agreed reluctantly. And then Iran's parliament speaker Galibaf went on record and said something very important. He said, "And I am quoting closely here, we do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. And in the past 2 weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield." Read that very carefully.

[00:04:37]The Iranian side is saying two things at the same time. First, we are willing to negotiate. Second, during this ceasefire period, we have been preparing new weapons and new military options that you do not know about yet. That is the Iranian negotiating position. That is who America is trying to make a deal with. And from the American side, Trump told PBS News that if the ceasefire expires without a deal, lots of bombs start going off. He told a radio program that Iran will see problems like they've never seen before. And then American forces seized an Iranian container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran called this an act of piracy. Iran suspended its participation in the second round of Islamabad talks in response. So, by the time we reach today, by the time this ceasefire is ending, here is the actual situation on the ground. Talks have broken down twice. Both sides are still exchanging fire in the Strait. America has imposed a naval blockade. Iran has placed mines. The Gerald Ford aircraft carrier has quietly left the Middle East and gone home. And the two sides have submitted competing proposals. America's 14-point plan, Iran's 14-point counter plan that analysts at Chatham House describe as so far apart that if the two sides do not change their stances, there cannot be a deal. This is not a ceasefire nearing a resolution. This is two sides reloading. Okay, now I want to go deeper because understanding what is happening on the surface is not enough.

[00:06:03]You need to understand the structural logic underneath. And to do that, I want to examine the key points of disagreement between the two sides very carefully because these are not random disagreements. They reflect a fundamental conflict about who controls the Middle East going forward. So, what does America want? At the core of America's 14-point proposal, there are three things America absolutely must have. Number one, Iran must stop all uranium enrichment, not slow it down, not limit it, stop it completely and hand over its existing enriched uranium stockpile, approximately 440 kg enriched to 60% purity, directly to the United States. Think about that. America is asking Iran to physically hand its uranium to America. Iran must also commit to not enriching uranium for at least 12 years. Number two, Iran must dismantle or severely limit its ballistic missile program because those are the weapons that targeted American bases and struck deep inside Israel.

[00:07:03]America cannot allow Iran to keep the weapons that challenged its military dominance in the region. Number three, Iran must end its support for what America calls regional proxies, meaning Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi movement in Yemen, Iraq's resistance forces, and Palestinian armed groups. In other words, Iran must abandon its entire network of regional allies that it spent 20 years building at enormous cost. Now, I want you to think about this from Iran's perspective. If you are Iran and you have just spent 40 days being bombed by the most powerful military in the world and you survived, would you agree to those terms? Would you give up your nuclear program, your missiles, and your regional alliances all at the same time? That is not a negotiation. That is unconditional surrender dressed up in diplomatic language. Trump himself made this explicit on March 6th when he demanded Iran's complete and unconditional surrender. That was his starting position, and despite some softening in the language since then, the substance has not changed by very much. Now, what does Iran want? Iran's counter proposal is equally firm. Iran wants the war to end on all fronts simultaneously, including Lebanon and Iraq, not just inside Iran itself. Iran wants the US naval blockade of Iranian ports lifted immediately. Iran wants all American sanctions on Iran removed permanently.

[00:08:24]Iran wants reparations for the damage done by the bombing campaign to Iranian cities, factories, and infrastructure.

[00:08:31]Iran wants a UN Security Council guarantee that America will not attack Iran again. And Iran wants its right to enrich uranium for civilian nuclear purposes to be internationally recognized and protected. And here is the most critical point. Iran has said explicitly that it will not discuss its nuclear program in this current round of negotiations at all. Iran says ending the war comes first. Nuclear discussions are for a later time under different conditions after trust is established.

[00:09:00]But America says the nuclear issue is the entire reason this war was started.

[00:09:06]It is non-negotiable and must be resolved first. So, you have America saying nuclear issue must be resolved before anything else. And Iran saying, we will not discuss the nuclear issue until the war ends and sanctions are lifted. These are not just different negotiating positions. They are structurally incompatible. They cannot both be true at the same time. And that is why after two rounds of talks in Islamabad and over a month of ceasefire, nothing has been agreed. Okay? Now, I want to apply game theory because this is where the real insight comes from.

[00:09:40]Let us think about this as a game between two players. Player A is America, player B is Iran. Each player has certain options and certain constraints. And the key insight from game theory is this: to predict what a player will do, you must understand not just what they want, but what they cannot afford to lose. What can America not afford to lose? Three things. First, credibility. Trump has issued multiple threats. Bomb Iran in 48 hours. Bomb Iran in 5 days. Bomb Iran in 10 days.

[00:10:11]And he extended each deadline. Every time he extended without getting results, Iran's negotiating position got stronger. In game theory, we call this the problem of incredible threats. When your threats are not believed, you lose leverage. Trump knows this. At some point, he must act or his threats become permanently worthless. Not just with Iran, but with China, Russia, North Korea, and everyone else. Second, Trump cannot afford a prolonged economic disruption. Oil at $95 a barrel is painful. Oil at $120 or $150 would be catastrophic for American consumers.

[00:10:45]Trump's political coalition is built partly on energy prices and economic performance. A serious recession caused by high oil prices is politically devastating for him. Third, Trump cannot afford to look like he lost this war. He started this war. He called it a great military victory many times. If it ends without achieving the stated objective, no Iranian nuclear weapon, Trump looks like he failed. That is a political disaster. Now, what can Iran not afford to lose? Also, three things. First, sovereignty. If Iran accepts American terms on the nuclear issue and missiles and regional alliances, it has essentially accepted American control over its foreign policy. Any Iranian government that accepted those terms would be seen by its own people as having surrendered everything the country fought for, the government would not survive politically. Second, security guarantee. Iran watched what happened to Iraq after the Americans decided to invade it. It watched what happened to Libya after Gaddafi gave up his nuclear program and then was killed in an American-backed uprising. Iran knows that giving up its weapons and alliances does not make it safer. It makes it the next target. Iran needs a genuine, verifiable guarantee that America will not attack again. America has not offered that. Third, Iran cannot afford to open the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally because the Strait is currently Iran's only real source of leverage over America. The moment Iran opens the Strait without getting anything real in return, it loses its most powerful card. America no longer needs to negotiate. The economic pressure on America is relieved and Iran gets nothing. So, both sides have things they cannot possibly give up, which means the space for a real deal right now is actually very small, much smaller than most commentators are admitting.

[00:12:32]Okay, so let me now give you my three scenarios for the next 7 days and my honest assessment of how likely each one is. Scenario one, major fighting resumes. The ceasefire expires. Talks in Islamabad either do not happen or collapse within hours. Trump authorizes new strikes on Iranian territory, possibly targeting the Iranian energy infrastructure that he threatened to hit weeks ago. Iran responds with full-scale attacks on Gulf state infrastructure, Saudi oil installations, UAE desalination plants, American military bases across the region. Iran also reveals its new cards on the battlefield, new missile systems, more effective drone swarms, possibly strikes on targets that were previously considered safe or out of range. Oil immediately goes to $120, $130, maybe higher. Global stock markets fall sharply. The world enters an acute crisis. Is this likely? I think it is more likely than the mainstream media is saying. Here is why. Trump has already struck Iranian facilities in the Strait on May 7th. CENTCOM announced this officially. That is a violation of the ceasefire spirit even if it was framed as self-defense. Iran's Parliament speaker said publicly they are ready with new battlefield cards. The Gerald Ford left the region, but America still has two other carrier groups there. The USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George H.W. Bush are both in the region.

[00:13:55]America's striking power is still very significant, and Trump has a strong political incentive to demonstrate strength before the next American news cycle moves on. Scenario two, another ceasefire extension prolonged stalemate.

[00:14:08]Pakistan and China managed to broker another extension. Maybe 10 days, maybe 2 weeks, maybe a month. The Islamabad talks continue in some form. Both sides continue to probe and test each other in the Strait. Low-level skirmishes, but no major strikes. Oil stays around $90 to $100. The global economy suffers, but does not collapse, and the conflict enters what I call a frozen war phase.

[00:14:32]Economic warfare, political warfare, information warfare, but limited direct military action. This is possible. China particularly wants this outcome. China cannot afford $150 oil. China needs the Strait open for its own economy. China is applying real pressure behind the scenes. Pakistan is also genuinely committed to being the mediator, and Trump actually does not want another escalation right now if he can avoid it because the economic consequences are hitting American consumers. But for this to happen, Iran needs to attend the Islamabad talks. Right now, Iran is refusing because America seized its ship. That refusal needs to be overcome, and that requires someone, probably Pakistan or China, to quietly convince Iran that attending is worth it, and convince America to make some gesture that gives Iran a reason to come back to the table. Scenario three, a partial framework deal that gives both sides something to work with. This is the scenario where Pakistan, backed by China and possibly Russia, engineers a narrow agreement. Something like this, Iran agrees to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. America agrees to partially lift the blockade on Iranian ports. Both sides agree to a formal 45-day negotiation framework on the remaining issues, nuclear, missiles, sanctions, reparations. No final deal, but a structure for getting to a final deal. Iran's most recent proposals have been moving in this direction. Iran wants to separate the immediate issues and the war, open the strait, lift sanctions from the harder long-term issues like the nuclear program. America has been resisting this separation, but there is a version of this that Trump could accept and declare as progress. We got Iran back to the table, we got some Hormuz traffic moving, we are negotiating the nuclear deal from a position of strength. That is a narratively defensible position for Trump, even if the substance is a significant concession. So, which scenario do I actually predict? Based on my structural analysis, I believe we are most likely heading into a combination of scenario one and scenario two. What I mean by that is this, there will be escalation in the first two to three days as the ceasefire expires and both sides demonstrate they are serious about their threats. Iran will reveal at least one new military capability. America will conduct new strikes on Iranian military facilities. Oil will spike, markets will fall, but within five to seven days, China and Pakistan will apply enough pressure on both sides that a new extension becomes possible. Not a deal, an extension. And the war will settle back into the frozen conflict phase, active economic warfare, limited military skirmishes, no major bombing campaign until the next deadline. The reason I believe this is what game theory tells us about both sides incentives. Neither side actually wants the full-scale resumption of major bombing right now. America because of the economic and political costs. Iran because it knows it can sustain the current situation indefinitely, but would suffer greatly from a new intensive bombing campaign. But neither side can appear to back down publicly, so both sides will escalate enough to save face and then accept a new extension that also saves face. The question is whether the escalation in the first few days stays controlled because that is the real danger. In a situation with two nuclear adjacent powers, multiple regional proxies, and a very narrow and strategically critical body of water where military assets from multiple nations are operating, accidents happen. Miscalculations happen. One wrong move, one American ship sinking, one strike that kills a large number of Iranian civilians, one Iranian missile that hits a UAE city center rather than a military base could create a dynamic that neither side wanted but cannot walk back from. That is the real risk of the next 7 days, not intentional full-scale war, accidental escalation that becomes unstoppable. Let me close with the bigger picture. We are watching the most important geopolitical transition of our lifetimes. The American empire is demonstrating its limits in real time in front of the entire world, not because Iran is more powerful than America in a conventional military sense, but because the American empire has three three fatal weaknesses that this war is exposing. Weakness one, it cannot sustain casualties politically. Americans do not want to die for this war. The military-industrial complex can produce expensive weapons, but cannot produce the political will to use ground troops.

[00:19:01]Weakness two, its most expensive weapon systems do not work effectively against cheap asymmetric weapons. The F-35 was shot down. The Gerald Ford ran away. The Patriot cannot stop $50,000 drones. The empire spent decades building weapons designed to fight each other, not to fight determined civilizations willing to use $50,000 solutions against billion-dollar problems. Weakness three, its financial foundation. The petrodollar system depends on control of Gulf oil flows, and that control is now being challenged directly. Meanwhile, China watches patiently, building its economy, building its trade networks, building the Belt and Road that runs through Iran, waiting for the moment when the exhausted American empire must step back, and China steps forward as the indispensable partner for reconstruction and stability. The ceasefire ending in the next 7 days is one chapter in this much longer story. Watch carefully. Pay attention to the signals I described.

[00:19:58]The oil price, Pakistan's public statements, China's diplomatic movements. These will tell you what is really happening far better than anything you will see on the surface.

[00:20:08]Okay? So, that is my analysis for today.