Tropical Disturbance building in the Western Caribbean...

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]A tropical disturbance is bubbling up.

[00:00:02]Thank you for joining me. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. It is Tuesday, May 26, 2026, and we're watching this area that is going to flare up in the Western Caribbean. It will have significant impacts as far as rain goes, and still a slight chance it does develop into a name system. Plus, we're watching it for the next round of dust moving in. This is going to be a big area of dust. Some of us dealing with some of the floods while others we are dealing with some of those drought conditions. Now what we've been watching these areas of rain that have been bubbling up. Let me give you a little bit of a closer look here. Biz where we have been quieter over the last couple of months. We have seen some of the rain some of the storms from overnight. You can see here we are in Jamaica back through the Cayman Islands. We have some scattered areas of rain around watching the Bay Islands of Honduras. Things are getting more and more active and we'll see things building across the western Caribbean. Here we are in the Eastern Caribbean, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago. We swing out here. A couple tropical waves. One right here. Another one coming off the coast of Africa. But the dust is going to be a big concern.

[00:01:04]I'll show you that. Two big areas of dust that will be moving into the Caribbean. And that'll stretch all the way to parts of Central America, even parts of the United States. Now, let's take a look at the chance of development. I've been mentioning this tropical disturbance that has the chance of becoming Arthur, but I still think it has a very low chance of actually getting a name. But we're going to see this flaring up. And you see right in through here where we have this kind of purplish shading, a slight chance of some tropical development with this area as we work our way over the next 10 days. So this is the area we're watching. Here we are in Jamaica. Uh we swing back toward say Guadaloop, Dominica, some spotty showers. Guyana and Cernom some of the rain. Watching a batch of rain today in western Cuba. And the rain really breaking out parts of Central America. So this sets the stage for today. By the way, this green here, that's actually some of the dust that is around that is going to be moving in.

[00:01:58]I'll highlight that. Thank you for your patience. I'll get to that in just a moment. But let's cover this first. This is tomorrow now. Scattered storms.

[00:02:06]Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, a couple in Jamaica. But look at this rain building. Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and still watching some of the rain. Venezuela, and Colombia. Then by Thursday, you see how this starts to lift to the north. this area of rain right through here pro uh providencia San Andreas this is building there's a front up to the north now this front and I'll zoom out in a second up toward the Gulf helps draw this lifts this area up so on Friday especially later on Friday additional rain bleise moving over toward the Cayman Islands watching over toward Grand watching the Yucatan Peninsula Mexico Cuba for some of this rain you see it right through here then by the time we get into Saturday it starts to come together really heavier rain where you see some of the yellows and some of the reds, those are the downpours right across the Cayman Islands back toward Cuba on the edge of Jamaica. Now, what I believe is going to happen once this area lifts to the north of Jamaica, then we'll see that flow coming in. So, this is our Saturday forecast. Meanwhile, we are way too dry in some spots. Uh we'll cover that with that dust in a second. So, again, this is Saturday. Let me keep it on Saturday, but but expand out, kind of widen out the view uh to give us a handle on what we're seeing. So, here we are in Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, the Bahamas, back through Florida, and a lot of action. We'll cover this in just a second, but here's the front that is going to draw this area up to the north right across Cuba. Now, at this point, I don't believe this blob will just move right into Florida. I think it'll be sitting over Cuba and move right into the Bahamas, but we'll see a better chance of rain in Florida. We'll cover that in just a second. And a slight chance this develops. Now, this is Sunday. Really heavier rain, even flooding rain, parts of the Bahamas, back through Cuba. This here is Monday.

[00:03:52]Look at all this rain. Now, as it lifts to the north, I mentioned you get kind of this tail end action. That's when we could get some of those downpours around in Jamaica. Sunday into Monday in Jamaica. Our rain chance is going to be bumping up. A slight chance this develops into Arthur. We'll see if it does spin enough and then it lifts its way gets tied into the front near Bermuda. This is by Tuesday. Kind of a slow mover and you see it just leaving the Bahamas, but the tail end of it still across the Bahamas, Turks and Caos, Haiti, back through Jamaica, Cuba, still some of that additional rain. So, we have this tropical disturbance moving by. I am concerned about flooding in this. I'm not super concerned about this developing into a major system. I'm just not seeing that. Always keeping it in perspective on this channel. But you can see that big area of rain that we're going to be watching. Now, the water temperatures are warming up and we know they are conducive for development this time of year. Uh sometimes we get a name system even late in May. But while these water temperatures are warm and they'll enhance uh some of this rain, they kind of help feed the system. There are other ingredients above our heads. There's a lot of wind shear, which is a good thing. This here is by the weekend. Uh this is hard to see. Here's Cuba. Here's Florida. This is the area, the tropical disturbance here. Again, a slight chance of becomes Arthur, but there's a lot of this red in here. Those are winds that would just kind of knock off the tops of the showers and storms as they build up.

[00:05:16]The windshare is high. That is a good thing. That should prevent some development out of this. But we're about to get uh into the official start of the season, which is June 1st, and then things ramp up very quickly. So, I'm going to put out more and more updates as we go forward. Extra updates for you.

[00:05:33]subscribers. Of course, you'll get those notifications first uh as we watch things. So, again, this area has a slight chance of becoming Arthur. Most likely not, though. And then Bertha will be the name after that. So, uh this may or may not become Arthur, but we're looking at some really heavy rain out of this tropical disturbance. Meanwhile, surges of dust are going to be moving in. Uh most of the tropical waves are just south of this dust. uh the tropical waves and the dust this time of year uh they they both kind of work hand in hand, but these surges of dust moving across are going to be substantial. I really bring that up because if you have breathing issues, uh if you happen to be sick at the time dust moves in, this does cause some of the additional issues. So, some of that dust that is moving in, you see it right here already moving in. This is the first round. Let me know. Uh St. Lucia, Barbados, Grenada, St. the Grenardines and Trinidad and Tobago, Dominica, Martineique, Guadaloop, some of the dust, even Antigga and Barbuda uh watching over toward Anguila, St. Martin, St. Bart, St. Kitsanas, Saba Staceia by the end of the week, Monzerat a little bit more and then you see it kind of feeding across all the way back toward the Cayman Islands. You see this is the dust especially where we have that purple shading US and British Virgin Islands and Nagata back towards St. Croy watching over toward Puerto Rico. This is by Thursday. And then a second and bigger round of dust is going to be on the way. This is by early next week. Really Sunday into Monday. Look at this. This is even thicker. So, giving you the heads up. We have a tropical disturbance that we are tracking.

[00:07:04]Watching out for development and flooding and two rounds of dust. One moving in now, but an even bigger one Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific showing uh some signs of a development. There could be a little bit of a development over the next 10 days. Not seeing anything huge at this point, but Amanda is the first name on the list. If you're on the eastern Pacific side, even up toward California, I'll be tracking things as they develop.

[00:07:28]Now, as promised, lifting to the north, here we are, Bermuda, the Bahamas, Florida, right here. We get back through Texas, and we get back through uh Mexico. In this area here, I've been highlighting later today, a severe weather threat, northern sections of Mexico, back through parts of Texas, even some isolated tornadoes out of this. But that moisture just builds in.

[00:07:47]While this tropical disturbance may kind of uh clip us by in South Florida and the Keys, uh it may not just necessarily move in. But meanwhile, you see that rain chance that is higher back through Florida over toward Louisiana right through here and at times New England, back through the Atlantic region of Canada got you covered. Atlantic region of Canada as we work our way into hurricane season. Some rounds of rain at times moving by. And you see some of the rain on Friday. Here comes that tropical disturbance right here. But there's already some moisture in place. So, Florida, Georgia, back through Mississippi, Alabama, where we've had the flooding the last few days, more rounds of rain will continue. And that rain chance picks up in Florida over the next few days. Watching out for the seas, choppier in the central sections of the Caribbean. This is a loop over the next few days. So today, tomorrow into Thursday, but eventually we'll see these seas really building down the road as we work our way off forward uh with that tropical disturbance uh as we get toward the end of the weekend, the weekend. Speaking of one of the dry areas we've seen Trinidad, Tobago, I know we need some rain. I hope I can maybe bring some of that rain. We'll have a meet and greet Tuesday. So that's a week from today. 2 to 3 in the afternoon. I know a whole lot of folks may be working. You just tell the boss that Brian said it's okay to sneak out.

[00:09:02]uh 2 to 3 in the afternoon. This is in Port of Spain, the Hyatt Regency. Uh uh so uh we could meet there again Tuesday, June 2nd, 2 to 3. Put it on the calendar. Can't wait to meet you and I'll be out and about uh across Trinidad. Hopefully I'll be able to meet you either either there or maybe in some uh different uh locations. Now, as we work our way forward, watching out for some of the rain, the Bahamas, as of now, we're not seeing a super high rain chance. Again, we're waiting on that tropical disturbance, giving you the heads up that that will be moving in.

[00:09:30]It's going to get very wet soon. And in the meantime, back through Florida, 2 to 4 in of rain if you get some of those downpours. Back through Cuba, upwards of 100 millimeters of rain. Maybe a little bit more if you get some of those downpours. Jamaica, some of us dry.

[00:09:44]We've had a little bit of rain in spots.

[00:09:46]Yesterday, the Cayman Islands, the rain chance is really going to be going up once this tropical moisture moves in as the week goes on. Watching the flood threat. Haiti, the Dominican Republic, uh, back through Puerto Rico, watching out for some of the downpours. Turks and Caos watching that tropical disturbance by the time we get toward the end of the week and the weekend and then we're seeing some of the spotty showers back through Monzer, Guadaloop, Antigga, Barbuta. Still a chance of some showers, but also some of the dust around St. Kitsa. So, let me know if you get some of the dust. This is where we've been really too dry. Grenada, Trinidad, and Tobago. We've been watching the water restrictions. Other locations just trying to fill up the sistns. There's just not a lot of water kind of in between things. Plus, the dust is moving in. So, the drought conditions actually getting worse in some locations. We're really not in the wet season yet in uh Trinidad and Tobago. It just hasn't kicked in yet with everything still to the south. Guyana and Cerna, I'm watching those pockets of flooding. Same thing Venezuela, Colombia. Uh back through the ABC Islands. Yeah, that rain chance staying low and some of the dust moving in. But this is where it's really going to be building. And then eventually to the north, starting in eastern sections of Nicaragua, Provencia, uh rather uh Honduras, and then Provenencia and San Andreas, we'll have some totals upwards of 150 millimeters of rain. And that's what will be lifting that tropical disturbance near Jamaica right through the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and up toward the Bahamas, clipping by parts of South Florida. And there's some of the heavier weather, Mexico City, back through Texas where we could get those downpours. And you see across the southern United States, lots in the way of rain. Back through the Atlantic region to Canada, some spots about 25 millimeters of rain, maybe a little bit more. So, Jamaica, we have about a 30 to 40% chance of some of the showers and storms around. Not widespread yet. Cayman Islands, 30 to 40% chance for now, but it is about to get a whole lot higher by the end of the week. giving you the heads up we're going to see some uh sub substantial rain across the Cayman Islands, Grand Little and Brack once we get toward the end of the week. Now, this is one of the dry spots, Trinidad and Tobago. Not much. Could still see a shower or two.

[00:11:51]Could see a shower or two back through Barbados and St. Lucia. But overall, that rain chance is just staying low for us. Same thing in Grenada. It's just not high yet. And back towards St. Vincent and the Grenardines, that rain chance staying limited, 20 to 30%. About a 40% chance today in Martineique. Then that dust is really going to take hold. A 50% chance of a couple showers in Dominica today. Then that rain chance drops off in Guadaloop. You see it dropping off to a 30% chance by the time we get into Thursday. Rain chance also dropping off Antigga and Barbuda. Couple showers possible today. Couple showers St. Kits and NeAs the next couple days and Monserat. But then we get that dry air and that dust moving in. You see that rain chance in Guilla and St. Barts going down by the end of the week.

[00:12:34]Isolated as we get back towards St. Martin, Saba, Stacia, 20 to 30% chance.

[00:12:39]Still watching out for some of the downpours though back through Puerto Rico today. Rain chance about 50% a 30 to 40% chance the next couple of days.

[00:12:47]US and British Virgin Islands and about a 30% chance. The Bahamas again watching us carefully for the heavier rain that's going to move in uh later in the week and by the weekend. Same thing in the Turks and Caos. quiet now, but that rain chance will eventually be building. But watching the downpours, watching the rivers, and the chance of some slides around, mudslides, rock slides, both the Dominican Republic and back toward Haiti the next couple of days with those downpours. Meanwhile, in Bise, finally, many areas getting rain. Others still need it. Keep me posted if you got any of the rain from overnight and this morning. Aruba, rain chance staying low, about a 20% chance tomorrow. Kiras and Bonire about a 20% chance of a shower but then we'll see more of that dust moving in. Guyana and Cernom the rain chance is going to be going up a 50% chance today. You see in Cernom by the time we get into Thursday we're up to about an 80% chance. Cuba scattered about but then we'll get that big slug of moisture with that tropical disturbance moving in later in the week.

[00:13:46]Costa Rica and Panama, we're holding out that 70% chance. Let me know your location in Panama and Costa Rica and if you've been getting any of the rain.

[00:13:53]Nicaragua, it's only going to build, especially eastern section. Same thing in Honduras. That rain chance is really going to go up. We'll be watching out for that flood threat. Watching the rivers, Guatemala, El Salvador, watching out for that high chance of rain. Still pretty active today and tomorrow across Mexico City. And then we see that moisture just kind of feeding up toward uh northern sections of Mexico, Yucatan Peninsula, rain chance is getting higher, starting to make a comeback. 50 to 60% chance. Northern Columbia, 50 to 60% chance back through northern Venezuela and then back through Bermuda.

[00:14:26]What we're going to watch for later in the week by the weekend and next week, the front and how this tropical disturbance kind of gets tied into that to see how much rain we are going to get back through Orlando, Central Florida.

[00:14:36]Rain chance going up mainly afternoon and evening variety but a much better chance the next few days back through Orlando back through Tampa then as we swing to the south 30 to 40% chance in South Florida but we'll see how close this tropical disturbance does get most of it looks to just kind of clip by parts of South Florida and then in Houston staying relatively active anywhere between a 40 to 60% chance of getting some rain so the western Caribbean getting active that area of rain building that tropical disturbance just a very slight chance at this point of becoming Arthur because again that wind shear. So we'll be tracking that flood threat with that. On the flip side, we are tracking the Saharan dust in drought conditions. So it's busy one way or another. Thank you for being part of Mr. Weatherman. Thank you for being part of this community and have a good Tuesday ahead.