The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict demonstrates a diplomatic stalemate where neither side can achieve their defined victory conditions: Iran seeks regime survival and maintains its nuclear program while the US demands complete dismantlement of nuclear capabilities, missile programs, and proxy forces. This creates an 'immovable object versus unstoppable force' paradox where tactical military successes (like the US/Israel bombing campaign) do not translate into strategic gains, requiring concessions from both sides that neither feels compelled to give. The conflict is further complicated by Iran's use of proxy forces (Hezbollah, Iraqi militias) and its strategic positioning of the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure point, while the US faces domestic political constraints and economic pressures that limit escalation options.
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On The Hour – May 11, 2026 | Trump Slams Iran Offer as Gulf Under Attack, Netanyahu: War Isn’t OverAdded:
Welcome back to ILV on the hour. I'm David Matlin live in Israel with all the latest news from here and across the region. Here's this hour's top headlines. Now, US President Trump has outright rejected the Iranian regime's response to the latest US proposal aimed at ending the war. Writing as he does on Truth Social, the president said of the response from Iran's so-called quote unquote representatives, "I don't like it. Totally unacceptable." That's the way he put it. Now delivered earlier today by Pakistani mediators. According to reports, the Iranian position rejected US demands to fully dismantle its nuclear enrichment program and instead proposed a gradual drawnout process to slowly and indirectly negotiate those key issues. Now the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar all reportedly were hit by drone attacks as the conflict with Iran continues. This despite an official ceasefire. Now, the UAE said two drones were fired toward its territory and intercepted, casting the blame directly at Thrron, while the IRGC has tried to deny involvement, threatening the Emirates against any response. Now, a series of attacks blamed on Iran have been carried out over recent days, even direct fire on US Navy warships in the street of Hormuz.
Zal Iranian national security spokesman he warned the United States quote our restraint is over as of today. Close quote. Well stay tuned on any developments along that front. Now Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he says the war with Iran is not over. That's warning that key elements of Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium still remain and must be as he put it taken out. Now, speaking in an interview with CBS 60 Minutes, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that while Israel has achieved significant results from its recent attack campaigns, as long as this regime in Thran stands, the struggle will continue against Iran's nuclear sites, regional proxies, and ballistic missile program, all of which remain a threat to the world. Here's the prime minister.
>> There's still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran. Uh there is still uh enrichment sites that have to be dismantled. There are still proxies that Iran supports.
There are ballistic missiles that they still uh want to produce. Now, we've degraded a lot of it, but all of that is still there, and there's work to be done.
>> How do you envision the highlyenriched uranium will be removed from Iran?
>> You go in and you take it out >> with what? Special forces from Israel, special forces from the United States.
Well, I'm not going to talk about military means, but the pres what President Trump has said to me, I want to go in there, and I think it can be done physically. That's not the problem.
Uh, if you have an agreement and you go in and you take it out, why not? That's the best way.
>> What if there isn't an agreement? Can it be taken out by force?
>> Well, you're going to ask me these questions. I'm going to dodge them because I'm not going to talk about our military possibilities, plans, or anything of the kind. And I'm just trying to get at how long is it going to take to achieve that aim.
>> I'm not going to give a timet to it, but I'm going to say that's a >> you see a lot of unanswered questions still being asked and we'll be asking some of our guests those in a moment.
But in another bit of big news here today, the IDF announced that a combat reservist was killed by a Hezbollah drone attack in northern Israel near the Lebanon border. Now, he was truly representative of so many of us out there. Warren Officer Alexander Glovian of 47-year-old father of two. He was from Pakikva served as a longtime logistics driver deployed in the war effort against the terrorists. Now, according to the army, several explosive drones launched by Kzbollah crossed into Israeli territory during the attack. The incident unfortunately indicative of the continued escalation along the northern front and ongoing threat posed by drones. We'll speak more about that in a moment. Now, heavy fighting does continue along the northern border with Israel and exchanging fire at multiple points over the past 24 hours despite ongoing diplomatic efforts to contain the escalation. Now, the IDF says it carried out widespread strikes against more than 70 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon throughout the day, hitting weapons depots, launch sites, command centers. The IDF says they are engaged day and night to contain and knock back the terrorist threat. Mainly, this involves soldiers from the 146th Division who are active continuing clearance operations south of the forward defense line in southern Lebanon. But as we just uh spoke about a minute ago, put footage online appearing to show a precision drone strike against any an air defense position in northern Israel. Now, the Israeli military has not issued a public response to the video, nor have they disputed its authenticity. Now, in one strike you see here, a missile battery was directly hit. Well, in a second video, a group of IDF personnel were seen being targeted, apparently as they worked on the damaged battery the very next day. These strikes highlight what has emerged as the main challenge for Israel's defense systems and frontline troops. As the small and maneuverable firsterson view drones, as they're known, they're proving difficult to detect and jam with the current electronic warfare systems. Now, military analysts note that while the IDF has improved its defense against these conventional drones over recent years, the smaller and cheaper attract drones being used now are presenting a new and more complex threat. The IDF though is adapting in real time.
On a separate front, the IDF says it carried out a series of targeted operations in the Gaza Strip against Hamas operatives, even as the Israeli forces remain deployed in a defensive posture under the current persisting ceasefire framework. Now, according to the military, Israeli troops identified and targeted members of the elite Hamas Nupa force that were repositioning in Gaza earlier today, and air strikes eliminated what they termed an immediate threat that they posed. In a separate incident overnight, the military says two suspects were detected engaging in what's described as suspicious activity near the yellow line. The IDF said the men approached troops in a manner considered an imminent threat. They too were targeted in an air strike.
Meanwhile, IDF ground forces operating under the Gaza Division have continued their clearance operations east of the yellow line in the central strip. That's the section bordering Israel. The IDS says that its forces are working with combat engineers. They've destroyed two underground tunnel routes with a combined length of about 2 kilometers.
That's where troops discovered a series of rooms, weapons, dozens of rockets, and explosives all inside this previously undiscovered tunnel network.
Now, we have much to discuss here and of course uh the top issues. I guess we'll move back to the top as we're joined by a retired British Army major and a senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, Andrew Fox. Always good to discuss these issues with you, Andrew.
And I I just lay out a host of really the most pressing ones, at least from our perspective here in Israel. Let's sort of rewind to the top on this.
looking at Iran reportedly offering to negotiate over its uranium program over the next 30 days or something like that but while proposing a staged reopening staged reopening I want to refra rephrase that here of the of the straight of Hormuz that's for commercial shipping it appears that the IRGC has the war and the conversation exactly where they want it you know on the hormuz you know hardly any attention on internal Iranian repression missiles proxies just the external issue that they created in the Hormuz is, you know, what does the US and its allies, you know, need to do to put the ball back so-called in our court?
>> That's the million-dollar question. And look, I think this shows us two things, David. I think the first thing we're seeing is uh the classic Iranian negotiating technique. This is what they always do about dragging the negotiations out as long as they possibly can, maintaining the ceasefire as long as they can, keeping uh that military pressure off tan and as you say that focus on the straight of Hormuz. Um the second thing I think we're seeing is a real conflict um between definitions of victory. Mr. Trump needs something he can take to the American people. Now he he set out a number of war goals that none of which have really been achieved.
uh destroying the missile capability, destroying their armed forces, and destroying um the the nuclear capability, removing that from their from their hands. Now, none of those have been achieved. So, he can't plausibly claim any level of victory at this point. So, he needs something out of even if it's just one of those three to take back to the American people with the midterms looming. On the other hand, the Iranians definition of victory first of all was survival. Uh and so, they've essentially achieved that already. Um they've also now learned that the straight of horm is a global pressure point. Um the Americans have learned the hard way how tough it is to keep that open. Uh and it's going to be you know a key point in those negotiations is getting global trade flowing again because look global oil reserves are on their last legs. Um give it another month and we could be seeing a major global recession uh as that that that reserve kind of runs out completely. Um and that is that's why time is essentially on the regime side here. So we're we're in a position where you've got a an immovable object facing an unstoppable force. It's a paradox and there's no easy way out without concessions on both sides that neither feel that they have to or want to give.
And that's incredibly difficult.
>> When it comes to at least what we know about the proposals, we can call it the ongoing diplomacy. According to the reports, Tehran is proposing perhaps to dilute part of its most highly enriched uranium transferring to a third country.
However, they're demanding that guarantees that I guess that the material would be returned if talks collapse or if the US withdraws from any future deal. Look, are these sides just so astronomically apart uh to far apart at this point to envision any kind of deal at least at this juncture >> right now? I think so. I mean, this is this is clearly a case that the Iranian regime is not defeated. That that huge aerial campaign um was a great tactical success and I don't think anyone could deny that. you know, Israel and the United States had a free reign to strike pretty much whatever they wanted. Uh but tactical winds so often do not turn into strategic gains. And that's once again the trap we're seeing here. It happened in Libya. Um it happened in Yemen earlier this year and now we're seeing a replay that bombing does not lead you to your end state. And and something else needs to give. Um and unfortunately, it is going to require I think some kind of um relaxing of their end goals on the parts of one side or the other. Iran aren't showing any willingness to do so.
So, does that mean that Washington have to or does this whole stalemate just continue dragging on until economic side, economic pressure on one side or the other actually forces them to move their pieces? Because at the moment, we are clearly not seeing a decisive point to where one side has to has to give way. And until we reach that decisive point, be that economic pressure on the global economy which forces Washington to concede or be that internal economic pressure on the Iranians that forces them to concede. You know, until we reach that point, it doesn't look like we're going to move much past where we are now.
>> May may agree with you on this that hey, this status quo is something that we're likely to see persist for a while. In in line with that, you know, we've seen Thrron denying these recent attacks, you know, over recent days. Perhaps a new tactic by them similar to things they've done in the past, or you could argue to Russia, circa 2014 with their moves into eastern Ukraine, Crimea, denying involvement. In other words, confounding the enemies. Does this seem like the new position of Tehran to just say, "Hey, it wasn't us." And leave everybody not knowing what to do.
>> Well, I mean, it's a pretty hard one to duck away from. You know, modern radars will let you know where explosions came from. But look, I think the key point here is we have seen that Iranian command and control damaged during the bombing campaign. We know the Iranian regime works on on this mosaic command and control structure as it's been described where each subordinate commander lower down the chain has their orders, has their targets, has a relatively large degree of freedom of action. Um, and when you take out the higher echelons, um, and there is a power struggle at the top, as as it has been. I mean, I think it's been fairly much resolved by the IRGC, but it still means that you have those lower commanders who feel empowered to launch missiles and drones and attacks. It may well be that that we're seeing or it may well be, as you say, just the Iranian regime obiscating and trying to muddy the waters.
>> I'll get your attention on another yet connected front here. I mean the IRGC, the Iranians in in their call conditions, preconditions to sit down with the US all along the way and even now in their proposal they've demanded that Lebanon be left alone essentially that remain intact and in charge. This has been one of their key uh demands all along the way highlighting I think the importance of the terror organization on Israel's border. I mean where do we see this in terms of what does it reveal in terms of the the priorities of Tehran?
Well, look, their their entire strategy has been built now for over a decade on having that depth defense in place. Um, and it absolutely seeks them to have that terrorist force in Lebanon who can keep the Israelis busy on their northern border. And it's really tricky for Israel because again, it's very difficult to achieve a strategic finale to that campaign because it sits outside Lebanon. It sits um within the Lebanese government itself and its weakness as a state, its failure to control a monopoly on violence within Lebanon as as you know every state should should be able to do. Um you cannot remove Hzbollah completely. You can't remove their intent to attack Israel. You can't remove their connections to the regime in Tehran. So all you can really do is what Israel is doing right now and that is continue to degrade their capability, deny them the opportunity to use force um and try and create that buffer zone in the south of Lebanon uh for Israel's northern border. So it's extremely tricky and this suits Iran down to the ground that Israel should be continually forced to keep doing these operations and keep trying to degrade Hezbollah as Hezbollah at the same time tries to rearm um and reinfiltrate into the south. So it's great as far as tan is concerned to have Israel in this in this quagmar that Israel actually doesn't have the ability to resolve decisively.
Look staying on the proxy issue right now. I mean in in resource poor Lebanon.
You know it's been one of the main fighting arms. You mentioned this is one of their proxies that was designed to you know be be a fighting arm against Israel. You could argue the same with the Houthis in Yemen. Uh again a resource poor country strategically positioned to you know be on the fighting end of the proxy system. But the Iraqi militias who have been really central and provocative in this whole situation, they're known to serve more of a major economic sort of financial role I think for the regime in Thran.
How does this relate now to the US blockade? You know, is it properly squeezing, you know, this Iraqi lifeline for Thran as well as Iran? What do we know about the sort of the the outcome of of of the current status quo with the US blockading it?
>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, of course, Hisbala particularly have this global terror and crime network that gives them a huge income of revenue from drug dealing, from armed smuggling, from people smuggling. So, Hisbala's revenues can't just be cut off. Even if you do manage to cut that link to Tran, Tan are also, you know, heavily invested in crypto mining, uh, raising economic resources through that. And then in Iraq, you have this very strange balance with the militias there where they are both um a serious major ally of the Iranians, heavily backed, heavily armed, heavily encouraged, not under their direct control, and of course heavily embedded in the Iraqi state as well. Um so the Iraqi militias have a very strong incentive to play this finally and keep a balance going. um because what they don't want to do is lose their power, status, and position within Iraqi uh Iraqi society and Iraqi governance whilst also wanting to maintain that 12ish Shia ideology. So there's a sort of religious and then practical tension in Iraq uh that we don't see in any of the other um any other fronts that have opened up since 7th of October.
>> I've been saying to people all along here, keep your eyes on Iraq. This is one of the most fascinating and complex arenas in this uh whole showdown. in terms of what um may come next. I mean, why hasn't the US responded, you know, openly at least to at least not anything? I know there were some strikes in port facilities, but what do you think's been holding the US back from responding more robustly to the attacks of recent days?
>> Um, well, I think it's a desire not to reescalate. This war was very unpopular.
even at the height of its greatest success when they were taking apartum elements of of the regime's leadership and military capabilities, it still wasn't particularly popular um in the United States. People are feeling the squeeze at the gas pump of that inflation of global oil prices. And I think the last thing Mr. Trump wants to do is to escalate that, especially given how much munition they have fired, how much defensive munition the Gulf States have had to have had to expend to to fend off Iranian attacks. if there were a military escalation in terms of air strikes on the American side, I think we can guarantee an escalation of drone and missile attacks from the Iranian side.
And so you've got um you've got Mr. Trump in Washington looking at that risk calculus and thinking that it's actually not worth it at this point because at the moment the status quo is just about manageable. Um the economic pressures are on the global economy. America's pretty well insulated, not completely insulated, but but insulated to a degree. So, the status quo, I think, is better at this moment in time than Trump reescalating and starting a bombing campaign again because the costs of that um will be pretty high.
Now, bear with me, Andrew. Um, I've got your military mind on things here and I want to pull you into the tactical level a bit here on the Lebanon front. You know, we've seen these first-person view drones used at unbelievable scale in the Ukraine Russia war. I mean, hundreds at a time, if not more than that. Um, so you know, they're pestering and they're killing IDF personnel, you know, in this moment, albeit in small numbers. The main successes seem to be for them at these rear units on the front. You know, the air defense batteries, the artillery batteries we've seen hit. Um, which is not uncommon in war, but clearly a good I'm going to say an accomplishment for Hezbollah. Look, a lot has been said about this being an IDF failure. you know that the IDF has not anticipated this properly but you know I'll say as an insider with the IDF you know the army has adapted and adopted you know the widespread use of FPV drones as well I mean every platoon now is operating these in the front lines I think less reported is the damage they're inflicting on the terrorists as well at this point but I think nonetheless and again bear with me that warfare has changed before our eyes here Andrew these last few years Ukraine and Russia the armies are moving underground um like Hamas you know like Hezbollah like like the IRGC, you know, Gaza was the great example. Israel had total air and surface superiority still taking years, you know, to locate and clear the vast underground infrastructure. Are Western militaries, you know, like the US, like Israel, a step behind in some ways a future of warfare essentially underground?
Yeah, I speak to my old units um especially regarding the drone situation and and I do think that we are lagging behind if you I've been on the front lines of Ukraine and that 10 mile buffer zone uh between the very front and where you're sort of safely out of drone range is a truly terrifying place to be. These these things are cheap to make. They're incredibly small and they move at 250 km an hour. You know, they are they come at you so fast it's incredibly difficult to stop them. And the idea that you can take them down with a shotgun or or a well-trained rifle, I think is is slightly fantastical. Uh it needs um extensive depth protection. Um it needs nets. It needs electronic warfare to jam the drone signal. It needs some kind of mechanism if it's a wire control drone to cut that fiber optic cable. Um, and unless your army has been set up specifically to do that, you're in the position Ukraine were uh two or three years ago where they were having to adapt and learn this on the fly. And it's not something that can be done quickly and there are huge lessons to be learned from Ukraine. Um, and I think we can say it was a logical progression for Hezbollah because if the IDF are taking away their missiles, taking away um, you know, all the cornets and the anti-tank missiles they had based around the south, if they're degrading their larger missile stocks up in the Becca Valley and their ability to manufacture them, the Ukrainians are making 10,000 drones a month in small cottage workshops for about $500 a pop um, literally miles from the front line. Um, you know, that is something that can be easily and cheaply copied by insurgent actors like his bullet. Um, and really I think in in hindsight it's something we could have seen coming. But I would also add the caveat that General Hindsight never lost a war and we can all be armchair generals. You know, this evolution has happened quickly in Lebanon. And I don't think we can be too critical of the IDF that the fact that they're now having to adapt to contact adapt contact to this threat.
>> I appreciate that sentiment. I agree. I think it's been a little o over the top the criticism of this inside Israel as well I'd argue where people are saying look the IDF wasn't prepared this and that that's not the way I I have viewed the situation this is just you know the evolution of warfare before our eyes keeping you bouncing around um on the big picture here let's look at the Gulf states for a minute I want to get your thoughts on this UAE in particular look I think they've seen no way to live alongside this tan regime no matter what the US decides to do if it leaves it intact when might you these countries such as the Saudis and the Emiranis finally take open offensive action against Iran. Do you think that's even likely at this point?
>> A lot of it will come down to logistics.
Um whether the Saudis or the UAE actually have the missile stocks to do action to to make any real genuine difference on the ground. We've already seen the full might of the United States Air Force, United States Navy, and and the Israeli Air Force um who who came up with a bombing campaign that was that was ferocious and yet didn't achieve a strategic end state. Do the Gulf States really have the military stocks they need uh to to prosecute that campaign to a greater extent than Israel or America?
Probably not. And do they have the defensive missile stocks to contain what the response will almost certainly be from Iran? I think broadly with the Gulf States though, they will be looking at this situation with real concern.
They'll be thinking that Washington is looking for an easy out, that they will focus on the nuclear material rather than the rocket socks and the proxies, which leaves actually the Gulf States less safe than they were before the war because the real threat to them is drones and missiles and Iran still has that capability. Um, and I think as an evolution of that that train of thought, that's actually good news for Israel when it comes to normalization with the wider Gulf States because the one country in the region that has shown its missile and drone defenses are outstanding is Israel. And we already know that some iron dome was sent across to the UAE. Um, if the Americans leave this war with only a nuclear deal or no deal at all, then I think the the market for Israeli defensive products is going to go through the roof and that can only lead to closer relations between Israel and the Gulf States.
>> I'm also bullish and optimistic on the future of relations between Israel and our and our Arab neighbors, especially in the face of this. So glad we could cur on that. Andrew Fox, always good to have you with us. Uh, fascinating conversation. Thanks for taking a tour of all the warfronts in the region with me and uh I know our viewers get a lot out of your analysis. Thanks for joining.
>> Thank you.
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We have another guest joining us right now as we continue our coverage of all the top stories here live from Israel on IL TV. And we're joined by Ambassador Allan Baker. He's a former Israeli ambassador to Canada. So, thanks for being with us. Uh, Ambassador, first uh direction I want to bring you in this conversation. Are you surprised that the United States has held its fire so far in any major way in the face of the recent Iranian attacks, their aggressive posture around the street of Hormuz?
If you can hear me, ambassador, now we may have a some technical issue here with the ambassador. We'll reconnect here. Uh in the meantime, again, we're focusing on the major issues in and around the straight of Hormuz. As Iran has day and night been attacking uh regional countries there, the Emirates seem to be taking the brunt of their assaults and attacks, renewed strikes, drone strikes, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles being reported by the Amiradis is targeting them and their infrastructure as well. The Saudis a bit more opaque, but also reports of drone strikes hitting there. and Kuwait and Qatar. These are other places where there have been strikes reported from the IRGC. And of course, that's on top of the harassment essentially and strikes taking place against some ships who are still either stuck or trying to traverse the straight of Hormuz as them as well. Look, we'll come back if we sort out the technical issues with our guests. the meantime more uh stories to touch on and one that is on the lighter note here which we always like to bring in though intriguing as it is with its geopolitics inherent Israel's Eurovvision performer Noam Betan is taking center stage in Vienna as the Eurovvision song contest opens under tight security and political tensions surrounding the event this year nothing new though for Israel now he's representing Israel with the song Michelle arriving with the Israeli delegation and security personnel is a live BL band played actually Havana mixed feelings about that now he'll compete in the first semifinal tomorrow night he's seeking a place in the grand finale on Saturday night the contest comes amid political tensions as I reiterate several countries boycotting the event over the war in Gaza >> so again we'll be rooting for you know him out there as you take on the world in these issues.
>> I'm having the most fun time I had in my life. This experience is incredible. The stage is huge. I'm with an amazing crew of amazing dancers.
>> Oh yeah. And it's just uh incredible to be here and I'm so thankful and thank you all for for the support and for the love and the the rehearsals are uh happening like really good for now and I'm having the time of my life. Again, we'll be following all the developments and first Noam, good luck out there. I know the entire country will be rooting for you and standing behind you as you take on the rest of Europe in the Song Contest Eurovision. A light affair, fun for the continent, but yes, filled with geopolitics and perhaps a lot of booing for the Israeli contestant. Again, nothing new. Well, last year we won the popular vote. We'll see what happens this year. So, we'll come back and of course follow any of those developments.
But on the warfronts as well, stay with us. We'll have all the updates of anything uh relating to the US and Iran.
Again, President Trump essentially crumpling up and tossing out the latest Iranian proposal that was sent back to the US. So, that issue seems to stand nowhere in terms of moving forward with the diplomacy. And again, reported Iranian attacks taking place by the day and night right now against other Gulf countries. And of course, here in Israel as well, we are on edge from anything from the north, engaged in an ongoing battle with a standoff with Iran, the rest of its proxies. We'll keep you updated. That is a wrap for this edition of ILV on the hour. I'm broadcasting live from Israel, the heart of the Middle East. ICE is we're here every hour on the hour with all the latest breaking news, in-depth reports, exclusive insights into all the stories that are shaping the region and our world. I'm David Matlin. As always, thanks for watching.
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