A weather front moving through an area brings changes in atmospheric conditions, including decreased humidity, lower temperatures, and increased precipitation chances. Meteorologists use satellite imagery, radar data, and numerical models (like the NAM model) to predict precipitation amounts, storm development, and severe weather potential. In this forecast, the approaching front is expected to bring scattered showers with a low probability of severe weather, with most areas receiving minimal rainfall (less than a quarter inch to about an inch) while some pockets may experience heavier precipitation. The forecast also indicates that rain chances will increase significantly by Friday, with thunderstorms developing in the morning hours and continuing through the afternoon, creating potential flood concerns from consistent rainfall.
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Showers still possible for the afternoon | KXAN weather update April 29追加:
You take a look at current conditions overall, we still have cloudy conditions. Humidity is still up, but with the front coming through, I'm expecting humidity to drop. I'm expecting temperatures to drop. And I'm expecting the possibility of a few showers. So, as we look at satellite and radar right now, our viewing area is quite quiet. We had a few showers come in earlier in Burnet, Williamson, and Milam County, but since then, there hasn't been very much that's picked up until about the past hour. And we got our first little signs of a thunderstorm that had built up. Sure, it's not the greatest, but this is what we talked about. We said that a few of them may try to build up, and some of them won't become severe. And as of now, that one little spot is not severe. It's just a few showers and storms that started to build through. So, let's actually zoom in a bit more so I can show you that we're still about 23 mi away from Gillespie County. That top portion of it that I was wondering if it actually make it into Mason, uh it looks like it didn't hold. It may build up a bit more, but this is the one cell we're watching.
And while it's out of our viewing area, it is now crossing I-10, which means that over the next 15 minutes, we could see it starting to move into Gillespie County. So, if you are along 290, going through Harper and into Fredericksburg, the cell, if it holds up enough, may bring you a few showers, maybe a few thunderstorms as well. You may even be able to still see it in the far-off distance. But, as far as actual heavy rainfall, right now I'm going with the NAM model, which means you could get a few more showers as the afternoon goes on. Some of it could become moderate, and then it'll start to die off. I'm not completely discounting the fact that we could see severe weather. We are still under a category two out of five for the day. That's if any of those storms do hold up well enough. And you could get a few pockets of showers in there. I'm thinking the majority of us won't even see a quarter of an inch to about an inch of rain. But, if you get a pocket of heavy rainfall that just kind of sits on you for a bit, you'll uh eventually see up to about an inch of rain.
Tomorrow, rain chances do pick up one more time. And as you can tell, it's really off and on is what we're expecting for Thursday. But, as we get to Friday, rain chances really start to pick up. Dallas, Fort Worth, into Austin, you could see most of those showers starting to pick up, especially early in the day. We get to about 11:00, 12:00, and we get some thunderstorms rolling in through there. That lasts with us throughout most of the afternoon. By 9:00 p.m., things start to wind down just a bit. And by the overnight hours, things look much, much clearer. So, our concern for Thursday and Friday will be flood threats just because we could see just consistent rainfall. But, other than that, we're going to see cooler air coming in. 68° is high for Friday, 70 as we get to Saturday.
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