The Battle of Makerfield

Added: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]Okay, so we need to talk a little bit about what's happened inside the Westminster bubble over the last day 36 hours or so. Um, with uh it's burn or bust basically it looks like the Labour Party everyone apart from Pat with the exception of the far far left of the Labour Party seems or and Starmer loyalists of course have decided it's burn or bust. So what's happened? Let's go through that first and foremost just just the facts. Just the facts. Um you had uh the Mr. Wesley streeting and in his resignation but not trigger an actual the leadership contest >> because people were expecting that weren't they?

[00:00:38]>> Oh yeah it should be one after the other immediately or more or less >> because of course uh he was one of the favorites to take over from Star >> um and holding he was health secretary wasn't he?

[00:00:49]>> Um it's a relatively senior position so he was well positioned and people were sort of rallying behind him and he sort of fluffed it a little bit.

[00:00:59]>> Oh yeah, one of two things must have happened. I.e. either he couldn't get the 81 MPs to back him because they all of those 81 have to back that one person. So either he didn't have those numbers or there's been conversations about that it's Burnham or nothing. So just hold your horses, wait to see if Burnham can get in and then we'll go from there. One of those two things I think must have happened with restricing unless uh he does trigger it like today or in the next few days. That might still happen as well if he's got those 81 behind him.

[00:01:34]So that happened. He's like the the fifth cabinet minister, isn't he? Jess Phillips was one of the other ones. Um so Star's just replacing them and continuing on trying to pretend nothing's >> You can do it here. Stay in.

[00:01:45]>> Yeah, >> please.

[00:01:47]>> We'll talk about country. I think right at the end of the segment, we'll talk about the overall what's best for anti- labor people. Is it best for Star to stay in or not? What would ultimately be most ruinous for Labor at the ballot box in 2029 if there's not an election before then? Um well, we'll talk about that at the end. Okay. So uh the other thing is uh Angela the fridge reigner big bird she uh got cleared of any wrongdoing as far as the revenue and customs are concerned. That was sort of remarkable timing for her wasn't it.

[00:02:20]>> She's ready for a comeback.

[00:02:22]>> Yeah. She can now they said you certainly didn't do anything illegal and in fact any error you might have made not paying 40 grand worth of stamp duty was a good faith error on your part. So, she's just apparently completely cleared and which means she's, you know, she's okay to launch a leadership election uh a leadership uh bid of her own if she wanted to. But also at this stage, as at the time of recording on the afternoon of the 15th, she hasn't done that either.

[00:02:48]>> Mhm. She's also, in my opinion, the sort of worst case scenario if she gets in because she's not only not that smart, but also quite radically leftwing. M >> like some of the things she was saying in her posts >> about politics is just insane to me.

[00:03:04]>> She's super dumb. Listen to her for five or 10 seconds and you get the measure of the woman. Super super dumb. But yeah, she's about about I would say some people might disagree with this analysis. She's about as leftwing as Andy Burnham, which is quite left. They call her like the the soft left. I don't I don't consider it all that soft.

[00:03:22]>> No, not pretty leftwing. I mean, it's not full-blown John McDonald full communism, but it's pretty damn left.

[00:03:31]Um, so, okay, Ed Milliband had always said that if a leadership election should have begun, he will throw his hat in the ring, but he also, again, at the time of recording, hasn't decided to pull the trigger on that either.

[00:03:45]>> He's also had his time in the sun already.

[00:03:47]>> He has. Yeah. Failed leader already, right?

[00:03:49]>> Yeah. He had to stab his own brother, David Mband, in the back for that one.

[00:03:53]>> [snorts] >> Good job. Good job. Um, so K Star Salmer's line, the party line is, you know, no former leadership election has been triggered against me. So I'm just going to carry on with the job of government. And and well, technically, literally, that is just true. That is the case. There hasn't been a leadership election. So what of the final the final of the big beasts to mention? Andy Burnham with his eyeliner.

[00:04:18]Is he wearing eyeliner? does look a little bit like it, doesn't it?

[00:04:22]>> I think I'm pretty sure he doesn't. He's just got >> I've never noticed.

[00:04:27]>> He's got very thick lashes for a man.

[00:04:31]>> Anyway, anyway, [laughter] um >> is that enough to condemn him already?

[00:04:35]Is it?

[00:04:35]>> Yeah. I mean, he's pretty low tea, isn't he?

[00:04:38]>> He's in the Labour Party.

[00:04:40]>> Pretty low tea. Yeah, he's a commie. So, he's always a socialist, so of course he is. Yeah. Very weak. Very weak in on any any metric you care to measure him on.

[00:04:49]Of course. on expropriating other people's property.

[00:04:52]>> Oh, right. Yeah. Super high on that.

[00:04:54]Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Rinse the Kulaks for every last penny they've got. Yeah.

[00:04:59]He'll be strong on that. So, okay. His route to power um seems to have cleared a little bit in the last day or so. So, first of all, he would have needed somebody to step aside in a labor seat.

[00:05:11]Hopefully a safe Labor seat. Uh that's a bit of an ask, but it's happened. It was that Josh Simmons, remember him? total total scumbag. He was uh part of that labor together group and he he was in government. He was in Klam's government, but he he had to be let go because that labor together group was I think seen to have shown to have been basically doing nefarious things like spying on journalists, mainstream media journalists. He K star had had to sort of get rid of him because there was >> Watergate.

[00:05:47]>> There was an actual sort of scandal thing there and Starmmer had put him in charge of the whole ID card thing.

[00:05:54]So this Josh Simmons is >> very tainted reputation.

[00:05:58]>> A revolting person as far as I'm concerned as far as anyone that thinks the way we do is concerned. Revol an enemy of the people >> especially with the ID card thing.

[00:06:07]>> Yeah. Yeah. That alone is unforgivable.

[00:06:09]I'm not going to clutch any pearls for mainstream journalists, but the ID card thing is unforgivable is >> it?

[00:06:13]>> Yeah. Right. Yeah. What you tried to do there? So the thing, someone puts a gun, a loaded gun to your head, pulls the trigger, but the bullet in the chamber happens to be a dud and then they just walk away. Oh, nothing happened. You're fine. Nothing happens. Like, no, you just tried to kill me.

[00:06:28]>> I'm not going to forget that. You just It was just luck. Anyway, Josh S.

[00:06:33]Anyway, he's decided to step down and he I think I said on the morning show, which was wrong, but he's a diehard Andy Burnham man. He's not really. He's a diehard Kissama man. So, it's a little bit surprising that he decided to step down. Anyway, he's in a place called uh Makerfield, which is in Wigan, isn't it? The Wigan area, >> I believe. So, area. Yeah. So, it's in the north. And of course, Andy Burnham is self-styled king of the north, isn't he? He's the king of the north. I don't know about that title.

[00:07:04]>> Has he used the term to describe himself?

[00:07:06]>> I think Yeah. Loads of people say it about >> violating Tywin Lannister's principle.

[00:07:11]>> Yeah.

[00:07:12]>> You You don't say you're the king is you watch Game of Thrones. It doesn't end well, does it? [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah. Being king of the north is a bit of a poison chalice, isn't it really?

[00:07:20]>> Um so, okay, perhaps the big maybe arguably one of the biggest hurdles is that someone's got to step down for him.

[00:07:25]Well, that's happened. Just seems he formally did it. we can see a copy of his resignation letter on Twitter or whatever or on the news. So that's happened. the next big hurdle for him that one of the hurdles I thought would be a a a truly sort of bitter one causing some sort of massive internal uh ripples inside the Labour Party is that for him to then be selected to stand in that seat the NEC the national executive committee of the Labour party the inner sanctum of the Labour party because when the Golton Denton thing came up it's not that long ago was it Gton Denton no >> not that long ago at that point he was uh prevented from standing almost unanimously. I believe I think one or two people abstained and the rest or and one or two people maybe even voted for him but the majority like nearly all of them said they blocked him.

[00:08:17]>> It's entirely possible considering that they got you know rinsed by the Greens in that election as well as the fact that they've had a quite disappointing council election. Although you could argue that they could have done worse actually. You know, I mean, they lost lots and lots of seats, but it could have been worse given their popularity.

[00:08:35]I suppose >> it could have been worse. It's still pretty bad. It's seismically bad though, >> like losing control in Wales, for example.

[00:08:42]>> Once in a century level defeat, once a century.

[00:08:46]>> Mhm.

[00:08:46]>> Okay. So, or in their alltime the whole history of the Labour Party, unprecedented level of defeat. Uh there for example, >> but to be fair, they deserve a lot worse. And that were their popularity a metric of of their electoral chances, they did pretty well.

[00:09:03]>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, I suppose you can Yeah, you can make >> I'm not trying to defend them by >> No, no, I get it. No, no, I get it.

[00:09:08]Yeah. Keep these things in perspective.

[00:09:09]Absolutely. Um, so I thought it was going to be there would be some sort of civil war inside the upper echelons of the Labour Party over letting him be selected at all to stand in this the now bi-election for Makerfield. No, they've come out and said Karma himself has come out and said we won't stand in his way.

[00:09:29]So he will be selected for it then. So okay, two massive hurdles. Mr. Burnham has has got over them. Next one then is will he win that bi-election?

[00:09:44]Okay, now that truly is uh a question mark. So Golton and Denton was had a majority the guy that was there he had a majority of something in the order of 13,000 which is pretty safe. I wouldn't call it a safe safe seat. I would call something like 18 20 plus thousand. That's a safe seat in my >> 13 is pretty safe though.

[00:10:06]>> In my home constituency of where I grew up of Southwest Devon, the Conservatives would win by a margin of 35,000 votes.

[00:10:14]That's a safe seat.

[00:10:16]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. in Ronford where I grew up for a lot or near Ronford or Horn Church really but anyway Ronford Andrew Rosendale was a safe seat for years and years and years you quite often enjoy 20 odd thousand that's a safe seat that's a safe seat you can take that to the bank okay but 13,000 is not to be sniffed at >> that's absolutely not to be sniffed at if it's not a safe seat it's it's pretty close well Denton Labour came third didn't they >> Mhm. Even Even Matt Goodwin was able to beat them. Some silly woman for the Greens was able to beat them. That's 13,000. Well, this seat, Makerfield, Josh Simon's seat, >> 5,000. 5.3 5,300 odd was his majority.

[00:10:59]>> And sorry, go on.

[00:11:00]>> They basically need to rely on Burnham's name factor.

[00:11:03]>> Yeah, >> that that's all that they can rest on because the the Labour Party Rosette alone is not enough to carry him across the line. And I think that also because it's a bi-election, because there are lots of parties looking to prove themselves leading up to 29, there are going to be lots of big names thrown in the ring. I think um in this bi-election and I think that there are lots of people they want to get in. I think reform are going to try and field a big name.

[00:11:29]Yeah, so >> it would be wise for them to do so.

[00:11:32]Sure.

[00:11:32]>> Um I don't know what the Lib Dems would do, but maybe they're not in the running, so it doesn't matter so much.

[00:11:38]Um it'll be interesting to see actually who's going to emerge as the contenders for this seat.

[00:11:44]>> So I would be very surprised if it wasn't Bham at this rate.

[00:11:48]>> Well um at the local elections that whole area went to reform across the board without exception.

[00:11:56]>> Okay.

[00:11:56]>> I thought of as historically Labor a Labor place.

[00:11:59]>> Mhm.

[00:12:01]>> So we saw a lot of um loads and loads of council seats flipping from Labor straight to reform. Some going to Lib Dems, few going green. But in this area anyway, completely across the board, Labor to reform.

[00:12:15]>> Okay. Question. If he loses in the area, can he lead Labor or No. No. Absolutely not.

[00:12:21]>> Is there internal rules?

[00:12:22]>> Yeah.

[00:12:23]>> That you have to be an MP.

[00:12:24]>> Yeah.

[00:12:25]>> So, >> unless he gets appointed to the lords >> and even then is a little bit questionable, isn't it?

[00:12:32]>> Yeah. Um, and so also of one quick thing, one almost an aside, he has to resign as mayor of Manchester to do this. You can't be mayor of Manchester and an MP. You can't do you have to resign that. Um, which means there'll be an election for that as well. That may well just be retained by Labour because it's Manchester and historically it's so safe for Labour. But we'll see about that. That will be up for grabs as well.

[00:12:56]But in the seat in Mak Makerfield, the the the parliamentary constituency of Makerfield. Um yeah, it's going to be a fascinating battlefield, battleground politically, of course. Let's keep it clean. Um N said they're going to throw the kitchen sink at it. Or I'm paraphrasing, he said they're going to throw everything at it at it. I think he said that's a quote. And why not?

[00:13:19]>> Yeah, it makes perfect sense for >> Absolutely. Why not?

[00:13:22]>> They've just swept across it in the locals.

[00:13:26]um they can they even though they came second in Gston Denton they beat Labour handily there's no reason why they couldn't win it realistically and and as you said what it boils down to really isn't it is that the Burnham camp and the Labour party everyone in the Labour party that's pro Burnham they're relying heavily on him personally that people in in Maker the good people of Makerfield just love Andy Burnham and just want Burnham.

[00:13:58]>> And of course, >> do they though?

[00:13:59]>> A very likely outcome is that he resigns as the mayor of Manchester and then loses the seat and then he's got no position and reform then have an opportunity to take >> the mayor of Manchester >> as well. Right. As well. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:14:16]>> That would be hilarious.

[00:14:17]>> It's entirely possible and it's actually a big risk on his >> Oh, yeah. It is >> part.

[00:14:22]>> He's throwing the chips higher for sure.

[00:14:24]It's a risk. It's a gamble. Yeah. Yeah, it always is. Yeah.

[00:14:27]>> Bo, do you We had a friendly bet two days ago about Star. So, do you think that Starmmer is going to leave and Burnham is going to try and lead Labor?

[00:14:39]>> Okay. So, let's just assume Okay, good question. So, let's assume that Andy Bernham's name recognition and just the sheer love for him in the Greater Manchester Wigan area is such that he's able to win Makerfield. Let's just say that also isn't improbable.

[00:14:55]It could totally happen. Let's say he does that. So he's now an MP.

[00:14:59]Then the likes of Streeting and uh well well sorry the likes of Edmund Band and Angela Raina trigger a leadership election and they all sort of more or less stand aside and get behind Burnham.

[00:15:13]So it's a Burnham Starmer standoff. So your question is what would happen then? Yeah, again don't know. It looks pretty balanced to me. I I would probably put my money on Burnham at that point because even though StarAmma does still definitely definitely does still enjoy a lot of support within the parliamentary Labour party, a big chunk are pro-starmer people like maybe a quarter maybe more actually. Um when it comes down to it, the membership, Labour Party membership, normal members will get a say. And unions, they've always been more left. So, it's going to be more Burnham, isn't it?

[00:15:50]>> Much more Burnham. Burnham's much more popular in the membership, Labour Party membership than Stalmer. Much more. So, if it comes down to that, I I would put I will put my tener on Andy and his eye makeup that he wears. Now, I don't know if he does. I think he doesn't. Um, okay. Well, so that's where we are at the moment. The the the path is sort of beginning to clear for Burnham to have a shot. It all it all hinges on the good people of Makerfield.

[00:16:19]what they decide to do. I mean, it'll be an interesting night. It'll be an interesting result to watch. We'll all be watching it, won't we? Watching that count, listening out for the result of that. If he loses, Fandy Burnham loses.

[00:16:32]He's so funny. He's just He'll find himself just a normal private citizen at that point. He hasn't got any office anymore. His political career's over really, I would have thought, because completely over because >> parachuted in somewhere else maybe, >> unless they make him a lord or some something odd, something strange. But um yeah, he uh because Labour are sure to lose whoever it is are sure to lose at the next general election if it's in 2029 or before. So Mr. Bernham will be done at that point if he loses. So fingers crossed he loses. Oh, one last thing then. One last point to make and talk about uh real quick cuz I never want to get on with your second set. Um >> it's okay. It's okay. You can finish his segment. One one final point is looking at it from the point of view of everyone who isn't a Labor voter, a Labor partisan.

[00:17:18]Is it best to would we ideally like to see Starmer continue through to 2029?

[00:17:26]That is the best for us that means the biggest collapse of Labor. Or and I would make the argument not strongly I think it's 50/50. knows that the combination of changing the leader mid parliament. People hate that. Hate it.

[00:17:45]The normal people, normal normies, they hate it when governments do that. And >> especially after the Tories doing it multiple times >> every couple of years.

[00:17:53]>> Well, it is a piss take, isn't it?

[00:17:55]Simple as that. We didn't vote for you, dude. Whoever you are, might have given your party a mandate, but we didn't vote for you. Yeah. So, people hate that. And then there's no guarantee. Why not say it's Burnham or whether it's Ed Milliband or West Streeting that they just continue that trend that sort of hated trend of what they're doing their agenda one way or another and if it's a bit further to the left an Andy Burnham government bit further to the left than Stalmer who's not to say that that doesn't the net result of that isn't an even worse result I think general election night >> there certainly sorry Stalios >> no just want to say that I think you're correct and St is incredibly bad I think If he stays, I think he will stay for a long time. He is going to do irreparable damage to Labor. But the image of many labor leaders just changing is creating an even better image for people on the right cuz like saying none of you can none of you have it has it together.

[00:18:54]>> Well, there are two different perspectives on this. I think I think on the one hand Starmmer carrying on and running the party into the ground is a sort of shorefire thing, right? But also another thing is I think that B things are so far along that even if Burnham did take over, it's too late for him to to win in 29. And so him basically becoming a leader and then leading the party into an electoral defeat um might scupper his chances in the future and then who would be the next leader of Labor? Well, you know, there's no clear front runner there, is there?

[00:19:25]>> Is it going to be Angela Raina? I I don't think the country's going to get behind her personally >> and who even cares at that point as long as they're out of power. Ideally, not even the opposition. That would be nice, wouldn't it?

[00:19:35]>> Um, >> I think that's actually likely to be honest.

[00:19:38]>> I mean, >> 29. Yeah, >> we'll see. We'll see. Okay. All right.