Can U.S.-China Trade Get Back on Track? 24 News HD

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-13

[00:00:07]Normalization of US-China trade is [music] consequential for every person on this planet.

[00:00:14]The two economies still account for 43% [music] of global GDP and nearly half of manufacturing output.

[00:00:21]When they stabilize relations, rolling back tariffs, easing [music] export controls, and reducing policy uncertainty, the effects are measurable and immediate.

[00:00:31]Trump-era tariffs and Biden-era [music] decoupling proved the costs.

[00:00:35]The 2018-19 [music] trade war shaved 0.3 to 0.8% off global GDP, [music] according to IMF and Moody's estimates.

[00:00:46]US firms absorbed most of the tariff burden, $46 [music] billion in direct costs, while business investment froze [music] and manufacturing stalled.

[00:00:56]Rhodium Group modeling showed full decoupling would [music] cost the United States $190 billion in annual GDP by 2025 [music] from trade alone, plus up to $500 billion in one-time [music] FDI losses and tens of billions more in aviation and semiconductor output.

[00:01:16][music] Supply chains rerouted chaotically through Vietnam and [music] Mexico, raising logistics costs and fragmenting production without eliminating dependence [music] on Chinese components.

[00:01:29]Normalization and more cordial relations reverse this.

[00:01:34]Bilateral trade, which hit a 2025 deficit of roughly [music] $202 billion after sharp declines, would stabilize rather than collapse. Global supply chains, [music] already intertwined despite tariffs, regain efficiency.

[00:01:49]Electronics, [music] autos, and pharmaceuticals see lower input costs.

[00:01:54]American [music] households gain from restored price discipline on consumer goods. Exporters [music] in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest regain predictable access to the Chinese market.

[00:02:08]US firms avoid the sunk cost of China's [music] plus one duplication.

[00:02:14]The global dividend is even larger.

[00:02:16]Stable US-China flows anchor [music] commodity prices, reduce energy security risks in the Strait of Hormuz and beyond, [music] and prevent the 0.3 percentage point growth draft the IMF warns will likely accompany renewed friction.

[00:02:32]Developing economies escape the collateral damage [music] of rerouted surpluses and tariff diversion.

[00:02:40]They get cheaper intermediate goods, [music] steadier investment, and less pressure to choose sides in a fragmenting trading [music] system.

[00:02:50]Competition cannot disappear, and it should not.

[00:02:54]Technology, [music] subsidies, and security remain flash points, but normalization can channel rivalry [music] and healthy competition into arenas where scale and complementarity produce gains as opposed to [music] losses.

[00:03:10]In an age of slowing global growth and fragile supply chains, that is the only realism that adds up.

[00:03:17]>> [music] >> The alternative, perpetual decoupling, has already been road tested. It is expensive, [music] inefficient, and leaves everyone worse off. And most importantly, for any important country in the world, for China, for the US, >> [music] >> and for regional blocks such as the EU, it is important to prioritize global development, global governance, and a system that works for the world at large. And this is what the two biggest countries in the world, the two largest economies in the world, should also be prioritizing.