Diplomatic negotiations between nations often continue even during periods of renewed hostilities, as demonstrated by ongoing US-Iran back channel talks despite recent strikes and retaliatory attacks; these negotiations face significant domestic political pressures, particularly when conflicts extend beyond expected timelines and impact public approval ratings, cost of living, and upcoming elections.
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US Iran tensions rise after strikes and Hormuz escalation| Nick Harper | Asia One NewsAdded:
Do we have any update on back channel diplomacy, the current status of the ongoing talks? What are you hearing about this potential deal between the US and Iran?
>> James, we haven't had confirmation yet from the White House, but that could be coming in just the next couple of hours.
Scott Brison, the Treasury Secretary, is due to give an update to reporters at 2:00 p.m. local time in just under 2 hours from now. He's standing in as the White House press secretary currently on maternity leave.
And he will undoubtedly face many questions in terms of what exactly is going on because so far all of this coming initially from Axios, other agencies also now reporting it as well. The idea of this draft agreement that would kick start this 60-day window in which really the proper negotiations would take place in earnest. What seems to have happened though in terms of that back channel diplomacy, it has certainly been going on in the background despite many of the problems that we've seen in recent days. The fact that there has been renewed hostilities, even both sides are saying that it didn't violate the ceasefire to an extent that the ceasefire was going to have to crumble, but it certainly put it in jeopardy. So, those back channel negotiations were still going ongoing to try and get us to this point where this initial agreement was made.
But I think it's worth pointing out that really this would be the starting gun on the proper period of negotiations because during that 60-day window the ceasefire would continue, but the negotiators would have to deal with some of the thorniest issues, some of the real sticking points on both sides. What happens to the enriched uranium that Iran has that and that the United States wants it to give up. What happens to those Iranian funds that have been frozen by the United States? And also sanctions relief. Will that happen? And if so, how quickly? Now, certain things will take place during that 60-day period. For example, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. Commercial shipping will be allowed to transit it without facing any tolls from Iran. And we're told that Iran would also have to spend 30 days, the initial month-long period, removing mines from the channel.
And at the same time, in return, the United States would lift that naval blockade in place on Iranian ports. They would do that gradually, not all at once, but gradually during that 60-day window. So, potentially a very solid starting point, but still plenty to be worked out. And of course, still waiting not just confirmation for the White House that this is all true, but also Donald Trump's final sign-off. Because even though this has been discussed, it would appear that Donald Trump, who was told about it on Tuesday, wanted a couple of days to think about it, to mull it over before he gave the plan the green light.
>> This comes as you rightly point out amid renewed hostilities. The US has carried out strikes in a southern port area of Iran. That's been followed by retaliatory attacks from Iran in the Middle East. What's the US saying about these new strikes strikes and counter-strikes?
>> Yeah, undoubtedly a very tense few hours overnight Wednesday into Thursday when all of this action was taking place.
They spoke about what they have called an egregious ceasefire violation. They called it unjustified Iranian aggression. Two thinking two things taking place. First, those drones that the United States said were in and around the Strait of Hormuz and that the United States intercepted and shot down.
Also, the US striking a ground target, a port area near the Strait of Hormuz. And on top of that, Kuwaitis intercepting a ballistic missile that was fired according to the US by Iran towards Kuwait. So, plenty going on and of course the US calling it a ceasefire violation, but it is clear that diplomacy is still ongoing. This is not, as far as the US is concerned, the time to restart hostilities with those negotiations still going on in the background. It seems that they want to push ahead there because I think we also know that Donald Trump has faced certain pressure from Gulf nations in recent days to continue on this path of peace, to make sure the diplomacy continues and that any violations don't get in the way of potential peace efforts. Donald Trump on Sunday said he had a call with multiple Gulf nations leaders and it all seems that they were urging him to consider peace rather than restarting hostilities.
>> Nick, is there also pressure on Donald Trump from the electorate? You and I have spoken a lot on this story over the past few weeks, months in fact. What's the situation in the US?
Is the Trump administration facing renewed pressure to really bring this war to an end?
>> Well, the Republican Party undoubtedly is. The White House is as well, although it doesn't want to quite admit it. I think a couple of things at play here.
We have seen during the course of this conflict Donald Trump's approval rating drop lower and lower almost with each successive poll that has been put out by various different news organizations.
And the main reason has been because of the conflict. Conflict many Americans didn't want a conflict and they are still concerned with it still ongoing that it will be a protracted conflict that the US is embroiled in potentially for months and months to come. On top of that, it has had an impact on the cost of living. It's pushed up gasoline prices for motorists. It's also causing problems with international shipping and we're beginning to feel the effects here in the US. It's pushing up prices. And of course the midterm elections in November, they're not very far away. And the longer this peace deal takes, the closer we get to that election, and the more that that will become a referendum on Donald Trump's handling of this conflict. A conflict that he initially said would be over in just four to six weeks. He expected a peace deal to be done and the problem to be solved. That has not been the case. Although Don- Donald Trump made a stunning admission just a couple of days ago in a cabinet meeting saying that he didn't care about the midterms. The problem is that many Americans do care about the midterms.
And some of them who are perhaps on the fence about whether they'll vote Republican or Democrat could perhaps look at the increased cost of living.
They could look at this continued conflict and decide President Trump and the Republican Party is not the party they want in power. Now, obviously Donald Trump remains in the White House for another couple of years beyond the midterms, but it could mean that the Republicans lose both the House and the Senate, the majority in both houses, and therefore it'd make it very difficult for the president to do anything in his final two years of office. He would become a lame duck president who from a domestic point of view would not be able to pass any legislation because the Democrats would hold both houses both houses.
And Nick, thank you for that. Nick Harper
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