Pauline’s One Nation Shocks Australia: The Poll That Changes Everything

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:01]Hi, how's it going? Just watched the absolute panic starting to ripple through the political class over in Australia right now.

[00:00:08]It is a dead set spectacle watching the establishment completely melt down over the latest polling numbers. Well, One Nation could win up to 59 seats if an election was held today. That's according to polling published in the Australian Financial Review. If the poll results were replicated on election day, it could see Labor pushed into minority government. Political scientist Sean Ratcliff is principal at Accent Research, which is behind this polling, and Sean joins me now from Sydney.

[00:00:39]Just quickly before we dive into the thick of it, hit the like button, subscribe to the channel, and share this video around so we can get this message past the algorithms.

[00:00:48]The numbers coming out of this Redbridge Accent Research projection are the absolute stuff of nightmares for the Labor Party.

[00:00:56]We are talking about modeling that shows Labor losing 18 seats if an election were held today. And the real kicker?

[00:01:04]One Nation sitting on a staggering 53 seats with the coalition virtually wiped off the map, reduced to just 12 seats and minority status.

[00:01:15]Now, government insiders are scrambling, desperately leaking to anyone who will listen that it wouldn't be that bad in a real election, trying to walk it back to maybe 20 or 30 seats for One Nation.

[00:01:25]But frankly, even losing eight MPs would decimate Labor's razor-thin hold on power. They only scraped in with a handful of seats to begin with. The sheer terror radiating from Labor strategists right now is palpable. They are quietly looking at their strongholds, places like Petrie, Dickson, Braddon, Hawke, Bendigo, McEwen, Bullwinkel, and more, and realizing the ground is completely shifting beneath their feet.

[00:01:57]You only have to look at the response from people like Labor's cabinet secretary Andrew Charlton to understand exactly why they are in this massive hole. He went on television and acknowledged One Nation's rise, but then smugly claimed that while they are good at pointing out grievances, they don't have solutions. He actually thinks he's making a profound point there, but he's completely missing the reality that the so-called grievances are every day Australians not being able to afford their grocery bills, never mind a mortgage. Sean, thanks so much for your time this morning. So, One Nation could win as many as 59 seats based on your polling. Just talk me through these results. How have you come to these figures?

[00:02:42]Yeah, so the results that we published in the AFR this morning based on a model-based approach called MRP or multi-level regression with post-stratification, which I know is a bit of a mouthful, but it's based on a large sample. So, a normal poll like we would normally run, but with a bigger sample than normal. So, in this case just over 6,000 Australian voters, and then we use a model-based approach to convert that sample into estimates for all 150 that are represented in the House of Representatives in the Australian Parliament. And from that we can get an estimate or a prediction for how many seats each party would win if So, if the current government actually had solutions that worked for the people who elected them, those people wouldn't have a grievance in the first place. It is that simple.

[00:03:30]The Albanese government's idea of a solution is just higher taxes and massive public spending, throwing fuel on the inflationary fire and expecting working families to just cop it sweet.

[00:03:43]It's the sheer arrogance of a political class that believes they can dictate reality from the top down.

[00:03:49]And then you've got Prime Minister Anthony Albanese out there claiming that One Nation appeals to people's darkest forces. What an absolute insult to the Australian public. going basis that we work hard each and every day. But they're not dark forces though. I mean, that was that a poor choice in words?

[00:04:09]Well, I'm describing Pauline Hanson and whether you appeal to people's better instincts or whether you try to amplify divisions in society. Now, what we need in Australia is more unity. Mhm. As we need to have proper discourse.

[00:04:29]Uh you know, have a look at what Pauline Hanson says about me. Mhm. You know, I think you're that would be What I'm talking about is the people out there who No, I'm not talking about people >> people and for them to be described as as dark forces.

[00:04:44]>> done that, Carl, so don't don't suggest that I have. I don't suggest that for 1 minute. When working class people express genuine fear about their economic survival, about their kids never being able to buy a house, about their local communities being stretched to the breaking point by infrastructure that can't handle mass migration, the Prime Minister dismisses them as dark forces. It is the classic playbook of the modern political left.

[00:05:12]Instead of addressing the utter failure of their own policies, they smear the voters.

[00:05:19]They are gearing up for a massive full-blown smear campaign against their populist rivals as the election gets closer. You can bet your house on it.

[00:05:28]They will spin whatever lies they need to, just like they have in the past, because they are panic-stricken.

[00:05:36]These politicians are watching their cushy careers evaporate.

[00:05:40]And it's entirely off the back of their own incompetence.

[00:05:44]Look at the economic vandalism taking place over in Australia right now.

[00:05:48]Albanese and Jim Chalmers have effectively locked the economy into a downward spiral.

[00:05:53]The old saying goes that a recession is when your neighbor loses their job. And a depression is when you lose yours.

[00:06:01]Well, Australians are feeling that immense pressure right now.

[00:06:04]They were promised lower electricity bills, and instead, prices have gone through the roof.

[00:06:10]They were promised 1.2 million new homes, a target that has essentially vanished into thin The social construction rate is actually worse now than it was under the previous coalition government. They let post-COVID inflation run rampant, letting it compound year after year, and they have the nerve to pretend they are still fixing things 4 years into their tenure.

[00:06:32]There is a profound historical amnesia in Canberra right now.

[00:06:37]If you look back to the Howard and Costello years, Australia was left completely debt-free.

[00:06:43]They set up the future fund, built a massive financial war chest, and respected the taxpayer's dollar.

[00:06:50]Fast forward to today, and the Australian people are staring down the barrel of a 1.3 trillion-dollar debt.

[00:06:57]That is an intergenerational burden placed squarely on the shoulders of the working class by a government addicted to ideological projects and bloated bureaucracy.

[00:07:07]When you see numbers like that, um you really have to question how long the establishment thought the public was going to tolerate being treated like a bottomless ATM.

[00:07:18]Yeah, the primary vote for Labor has slumped to a historic low of 28%.

[00:07:25]Nobody believes the endless blame-shifting anymore.

[00:07:28]The traditional working-class base in Australia has found a voice, and they are bringing a reckoning to the ballot box.

[00:07:36]The silence of the majority is well and truly over, and the political elites are absolutely terrified of what happens next.

[00:07:44]This disconnect goes far deeper than just economic mismanagement. It represents a fundamental rejection of the foundational values that actually built Australia.

[00:07:56]For decades, there was a shared cultural understanding that if you worked hard, took personal responsibility, and contributed to your community, you would get ahead. But this current iteration of the Labor Party seems completely hostile to that idea.

[00:08:11]They have embraced a purely redistributive mindset wrapped up in endless progressive virtue signaling.

[00:08:18]While they're busy appeasing the fringes of the activist left, the actual fabric of the country is fraying.

[00:08:25]The sheer hypocrisy of telling everyday Australians to tighten their belts while the government expands the public sector and funnels billions into completely unproven, ideologically driven energy transitions is staggering. It is fair dinkum infuriating for people who are flat out pulling long shifts, running small businesses, and trying to keep the lights on. You see this clearly in the polling around immigration. And this is 62% of Australians want net overseas migration reduced with nearly half of them wanting a massive decrease.

[00:09:03]This isn't rooted in malice. It is rooted in basic mathematics. You cannot flood a country with record numbers of people when there are literally no houses for them to live in, when the hospitals are ramping, and when the roads are in a state of constant gridlock. Yet for years, the major parties have treated anyone who questions the immigration intact as a pariah. They've completely ignored the strain on local communities because big business wanted cheap labor and the universities wanted foreign student fees.

[00:09:36]Well, the chickens have come home to roost.

[00:09:39]One Nation has surged because they are the only ones actually willing to call it how they see it on this issue.

[00:09:45]They've tapped into the massive frustration of a population that is sick and tired of being told they're wrong for wanting to preserve their standard of living.

[00:09:54]Labor's strategy moving forward is incredibly transparent. They will try to buy their way out of this hole.

[00:10:00]Prepare yourselves for the most massive, desperate spending spree in the upcoming budget. They'll start throwing cash at every single demographic they think they're losing, rolling out handouts and subsidies to paper over the structural cracks they've created in the economy.

[00:10:16]But throwing taxpayer money at a cost of living crisis caused by excessive government spending is a fool's errand.

[00:10:24]The voters are waking up to the fact that these short-term sugar heads do absolutely nothing to fix the underlying rot. The damage is deep and structural.

[00:10:37]By 2028, the true consequences of these heavy-handed central planning policies will be impossible to hide. The pain will be widespread, and the electorate will be looking for a complete clearing of the decks. The situation over on the conservative side of politics in Australia isn't much better, and that is exactly why this political realignment is happening so rapidly.

[00:11:02]The Liberal and National parties are sitting over there scratching their heads wondering why they are languishing at just 23% in the primary vote, trailing One Nation for the eighth consecutive poll.

[00:11:13]The answer is staring them right in the face, but they are entirely too stubborn to accept it.

[00:11:18]Shadow Housing Minister Andrew Bragg actually hit the nail on the head recently when he admitted that the Liberal Party has been punished for a complete lack of distinct policy.

[00:11:27]They have become far too similar to the Labor Party.

[00:11:31]Instead of offering a genuine, robust alternative rooted in free markets, individual liberty, and strict fiscal restraint, they have spent the last few years trying to play Labor light.

[00:11:43]Uh, they compromised on taxes, they capitulated on industrial relations, and they completely vacated the field on crucial cultural issues.

[00:11:53]When a major political party abandons its core principles just to appease an inner-city media elite, it entirely abandons its base.

[00:12:01]The Liberal Party establishment seems to genuinely believe they can just wait for Labor to fail, and the voters will automatically flock back to them by default. They are dreaming. The fractured political landscape in Australia right now means voters are allocating their trust strictly issue by issue. They're no longer bound by blind tribal loyalty to the legacy parties.

[00:12:19]If someone wants to send a message that they're completely fed up with the direction of the country, voting for a slightly less incompetent version of the exact same establishment isn't going to cut it. That is precisely why the regions are in full revolt.

[00:12:33]The working-class suburbs and the vast regional areas of Australia are looking at Canberra and realizing neither major party represents their interests.

[00:12:43]Just look at the dynamic playing out with the teal independents.

[00:12:47]The popular surge isn't just a threat to the left. It is an absolute wrecking ball aimed straight at the regions.

[00:12:55]The recent results in places like Farrer show that a party like One Nation is positioned to completely decimate any teal presence in the country. And they might even start tearing urban seats away from them as well.

[00:13:10]The math for the upcoming elections is completely brutal. There are 151 seats up for grabs. If Labor is already bleeding primary votes at a historic rate, and the coalition remains entirely uninspiring, the door is wide open for a massive electoral sweep.

[00:13:29]Even if the coalition manages to scrape together some sort of disorganized minority government down the track, a failure to properly integrate the right-leaning populist vote will just lead to more chaos and a resounding humiliating defeat in 2028.

[00:13:46]It is completely baffling to watch supposed conservative leaders like Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan continue to play these petty short-sighted political games.

[00:13:56]Taylor has shown he can be a highly competent shadow minister, but he is dead set delusional if he thinks the coalition can somehow form a majority government without making serious concessions to the massive block of people voting for One Nation.

[00:14:10]And Canavan needs to swallow his pride.

[00:14:12]The enemy here isn't Pauline Hanson or the voters pointing out the glaring obvious values of the system. The real opponent is a hard-left Labor government that is systematically dismantling the economic and cultural foundations of Australia.

[00:14:25]You really have to Look, it just doesn't make any rational sense why these blokes refuse to read the room. They need to grow up, accept the harsh reality of the political chessboard, and figure out how to work alongside this movement.

[00:14:40]The Australian public is completely exhausted by politicians who care more about protecting their own little fiefdoms than actually fixing the massive problems facing everyday families.

[00:14:51]What we are witnessing in Australia right now is a direct mirror of what has happened overseas.

[00:14:56]You look at the UK with Keir Starmer's government, Albanese has essentially run the exact same destructive hollow playbook. He promised competence and unity, but delivered deep division, economic stagnation, and a relentless focus on niche ideological crusades.

[00:15:14]And just as the Reform Party in the UK has surged by stepping into the massive vacuum left by a useless conservative establishment and a radical left-wing government, One Nation is doing the exact same thing in Australia.

[00:15:28]Yeah, Albanese is on a fast track to being relegated to the history books as one of the most spectacularly unsuccessful leaders in modern times. A bloke who burned through a massive amount of public goodwill by treating everyday people with outright contempt.

[00:15:46]The pure arrogance of the left is their absolute Achilles heel. They genuinely believe that the result of the last election was some kind of permanent unquestionable mandate for sweeping social and economic engineering.

[00:16:00]They cling desperately to that victory because they know the tide is completely turned against them.

[00:16:06]But you cannot govern a country through pure ideology when the practical reality of your decisions is making people poorer every single day.

[00:16:15]The cost of living crisis isn't just a convenient talking point for the opposition. It is a brutal daily reality for millions.

[00:16:23]When One Nation jumps from 13% to 20% on the specific metric of who is best placed to manage household pressures, it proves that the electorate is entirely focused on survival.

[00:16:38]They don't care about the sophisticated high-minded rhetoric coming out of Canberra.

[00:16:44]They care about keeping a roof over their heads and putting food on the table.

[00:16:49]And let's not forget the other major fracture happening right now. Labor isn't just losing the working class and the massive regional voting blocks. They are facing a full-blown revolt on their left flank as well.

[00:17:02]The emergence of the Muslim vote block, openly declaring they will preference the Greens over Labor, is a massive headache for Albanese.

[00:17:11]Seats held by senior figures like Tony Burke are suddenly in serious jeopardy.

[00:17:17]The Labour Party spent years carefully cultivating these hyper-specific demographic groups, playing relentless identity politics to build their electoral coalition.

[00:17:28]Now, that exact same tribalism is tearing their electoral map to shreds.

[00:17:34]They are being squeezed from every possible direction, and they have absolutely nowhere to hide. They are fully prepared to sacrifice their loyal, long-serving members in marginal seats if it means clinging to power. But, the sheer volume of seats at risk makes that a spectacular losing game.

[00:17:53]The people over in Australia who genuinely value tradition, who believe in individual responsibility, and who actually want to see a thriving free market economy, are standing up. They are sick to death of the double standards. They are sick of being constantly lectured by a political class that suffers zero consequences for its own disastrous decisions.

[00:18:15]The establishment thought they could just keep kicking the can down the road, relying on a compliant media to run interference for them.

[00:18:22]But, the reality of a $1.3 trillion debt, a completely broken housing market, and a fractured society, cannot be spun away by a clever PR campaign.

[00:18:36]The reckoning is coming, and by the time the 2028 election rolls around, the political landscape in Australia is going to be completely unrecognizable.

[00:18:46]The silent majority has found its voice, and they are absolutely taking a baseball bat to the status quo.