Iran Just Fired At A US Base. Trump Is Still Trying To Make A Deal. | Prof. Jiang Xueqin

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]Last night, Iran fired a ballistic missile at an American military base in Kuwait.

[00:00:05]Kuwait intercepted it. No casualties.

[00:00:08]This morning, Trump said Iran is negotiating, {quote} on fumes. Same day, Iran fires. Trump begs, "I need one word from you right now. Winning or losing?"

[00:00:21]Who is winning this negotiation? Trump or Iran? Drop it below right now. One word. Because the missile and the deal request happened on the same day, and that tells you everything. Let me give you the exact sequence of the last 24 hours.

[00:00:37]Wednesday evening, May 27th. Trump is at Camp David with his cabinet. He says, "Iran is negotiating on fumes. Their whole economic system is broken down.

[00:00:49]They want to make a deal. I don't think they have a choice." He also says, "We'll go back and finish the job if no deal is reached." Wednesday night, 10:17 p.m. Eastern Time. Iran's IRGC launches a ballistic missile toward Kuwait. The target, Ali Al Salem Airbase, an American military installation. Kuwait's air defense intercepts it. No casualties, no damage. But the missile was real. The target was American, and it happened hours after Trump said Iran had no leverage.

[00:01:23]US Central Command calls it, in their exact words, "an egregious ceasefire violation." Cutler calls it a blatant violation of sovereignty. And Trump this morning? He says negotiations are continuing. He says Iran wants very much to make a deal. He says time is on America's side. Let me show you why that sequence is the most important thing that happened this week. Iran fired at an American base, and America's response was to keep negotiating. Iran just learned something. I want to introduce a framework today.

[00:01:58]Doubling down.

[00:01:59]In negotiation theory, doubling down is what a party does when they realize that escalation produces concessions faster than diplomacy does.

[00:02:09]It is a rational strategy if it works.

[00:02:12]And for Iran, it has worked consistently for 89 days.

[00:02:18]Let me show you the pattern. March 25th, Iran fires a salvo of missiles across the Middle East. Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan.

[00:02:28]Trump's response? We are in negotiations right now.

[00:02:32]April 7th, ceasefire announced. Iran gets the ceasefire it wanted. May 25th, Iran lays mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:02:41]US strikes back. Iran fires at US ships.

[00:02:45]Trump's response?

[00:02:46]Negotiations are proceeding nicely.

[00:02:49]May 27th, Trump says Iran is negotiating on fumes. May 28th, Iran fires a ballistic missile at a US base in Kuwait. Trump's response? Negotiations continue.

[00:03:02]The pattern is not accidental. Every time Iran escalates, Trump's urgency for a deal increases. Iran has learned that the cost of escalation is low and the reward is high.

[00:03:15]Firing a missile produces faster concessions than offering concessions.

[00:03:20]That is doubling down. And it is working. Now, let me take Trump's own phrase and show you what it actually reveals.

[00:03:28]Negotiating on fumes.

[00:03:31]Trump used this phrase to describe Iran's position. The implication? Iran is desperate. Iran is weak. Iran has no more leverage. But let's test that against the facts of today.

[00:03:44]A country negotiating on fumes does not fire ballistic missiles at American bases.

[00:03:49]A A negotiating on fumes does not launch five attack drones at US ships in the Strait. A country negotiating on fumes does not lay mines in the world's most important waterway while simultaneously sitting at the negotiating table.

[00:04:06]A country negotiating on fumes does not selectively allow Chinese ships through the Strait while blocking American vessels.

[00:04:14]Iran is doing all of these things today, right now.

[00:04:19]Here is what negotiating on fumes actually reveals. It is something you say about your opponent when your opponent keeps firing missiles and you keep extending the ceasefire. It is the phrase of a man who needs the deal more than his opponent does. Trump has issued seven ultimatums.

[00:04:37]Iran has fired missiles after every single one. And the ceasefire has been extended after every single one. The side negotiating on fumes is the side that keeps extending deadlines. Look at the record. March 21st, 48-hour ultimatum, extended. March 23rd, extended five more days. March 26th, no turning back, extended. April 5th, final deadline, ceasefire instead. May 17th, attack canceled by Gulf allies. May 23rd, largely negotiated, still not signed. May 28th, ballistic missile at Kuwait. Seven ultimatums, seven extensions, one ballistic missile fired at America. Who is negotiating on fumes?

[00:05:26]Now, let me show you why what Iran is doing is not reckless. It is strategic.

[00:05:32]Iran is running two tracks simultaneously. Track one, the negotiating table. Iranian diplomats are in Doha. They are talking to American negotiators. They are discussing the memorandum of understanding. They are saying the right things. Progress is being made. Positions are getting closer. We want a deal. Track two, the battlefield. While those diplomats talk, the IRGC is laying mines. The IRGC is launching drones at American ships. The IRGC is firing ballistic missiles at American bases.

[00:06:07]These two tracks are not in contradiction. They are designed to work together.

[00:06:12]The message of track two to track one is simple. Every day America spends in negotiation without closing a deal, Iran demonstrates it can still hurt America.

[00:06:22]Every missile Iran fires says, "You need this deal before something worse happens." Every drone that gets intercepted says, "We have more drones."

[00:06:32]This is a negotiating strategy, not a military strategy. Iran is not trying to win a military confrontation. Iran is trying to change the terms of the deal.

[00:06:43]So, what does Iran actually want that it isn't getting? Three things. All of them non-negotiable according to Tehran.

[00:06:51]First, sovereignty over the strait. Iran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority on May 5th. It requires all ships to file a vessel information declaration. It positions Iran as the legal manager of Hormuz traffic. Trump says this is unacceptable. International waters, no Iranian authority. Iran says this is non-negotiable. Every mine Iran lays, every drone Iran launches, every ship Iran stops, is Iran enforcing its claim sovereignty.

[00:07:21]The missile fired at Kuwait last night was Iran saying, "If you keep striking our enforcement activities, we will reach beyond the strait." Second, end to Lebanese operations. Iran's counter-proposal from day one included Lebanon. The ceasefire must cover Hezbollah. Israel is striking 135 Hezbollah targets per day in Lebanon right now. America says Lebanon is not part of the Iran deal. Iran says Lebanon is part of every deal. Every missile Iran fires reminds Washington that as long as Lebanon burns, Iran will keep the pressure on. Third, sanctions relief before nuclear concessions. Iran's position, open the straight, lift sanctions, then discuss nuclear.

[00:08:07]America's position, discuss nuclear first, then consider sanctions. Iran's missile yesterday said, "If you want us to stop firing, stop the sanctions. The nuclear question comes after." Hit the like button right now if this dual track framework is showing you something you haven't seen anywhere else.

[00:08:27]Because the most important part of today's story is still ahead.

[00:08:32]What Trump cannot say publicly, but what his negotiating team knows. Here is the part nobody in mainstream media is saying out loud.

[00:08:40]Trump knows Iran is not negotiating on fumes. He has classified intelligence.

[00:08:46]He sees the satellite imagery. He knows Iran fired a ballistic missile at Kuwait last night. He knows Iran's drone arsenal, despite CENTCOM's claim that it's at 10%, is still launching five drones at a time. He knows Iran is selectively opening the straight for Chinese ships while blocking Western vessels. He knows the ceasefire is not holding and he is still asking for a deal.

[00:09:11]That is not the behavior of a man who believes his opponent has no leverage.

[00:09:15]That is the behavior of a man who knows his opponent has exactly enough leverage to make the deal necessary.

[00:09:23]Here is what Trump cannot say publicly.

[00:09:25]Iran has made the cost of continuing this war too high.

[00:09:29]He cannot say it because it sounds like weakness. So instead he says "negotiating on fumes." But the ballistic missile fired at last night is Iran's response to that phrase. And Trump's response to the ballistic missile is negotiations continue. The gap between what Trump says and what Trump does, that gap is Iran's leverage.

[00:09:52]This strategy, attacking while negotiating, has been used before.

[00:09:57]Korea, 1951 to 1953.

[00:10:01]The Korean War ceasefire negotiations lasted 2 years. During those 2 years, both sides kept fighting. The Chinese and North Koreans launched major offensives during the negotiations. Not to win the war, to improve their position at the table.

[00:10:19]The more pressure they applied militarily, the more concessions they extracted diplomatically.

[00:10:26]The ceasefire line ended further north than where the fighting was when talks began.

[00:10:32]The attacks during negotiations produced a better outcome than the military situation warranted. Vietnam, 1968 to 1973.

[00:10:43]Nixon and Kissinger negotiated the Paris Peace Accords for 5 years. During those 5 years, North Vietnam launched the Tet Offensive, the Easter Offensive, multiple major campaigns.

[00:10:57]Each offensive was coordinated with the diplomatic calendar. Attack before negotiating session, improve your position at the table. The Paris Accords gave North Vietnam better terms than it had when negotiations started.

[00:11:12]Iran, 2026.

[00:11:15]Negotiations since April.

[00:11:18]Ballistic missile at Kuwait on May 28th.

[00:11:22]The pattern is 70 years old. Attack during negotiations. Extract concessions. Repeat. Iran is not inventing a new strategy.

[00:11:34]Iran is executing the oldest strategy in the modern diplomatic playbook. Three predictions. Prediction one, the deal gets signed within 7 days with better terms for Iran than were on the table last week.

[00:11:49]The ballistic missile fired at Kuwait was not designed to collapse the negotiations. It was designed to change the terms.

[00:11:57]Watch for a deal announcement that includes a stronger Iranian role in straight management. Softer language on nuclear timelines and faster sanctions relief than the previous draft contained.

[00:12:10]Iran fired, Iran will get something for it.

[00:12:14]Prediction two, Trump frames the missile as proof Iran is desperate and his base believes it.

[00:12:21]Trump called Iran negotiating on fumes before the missile. He will say the missile proves Iran is panicking.

[00:12:29]His base will accept this framing. Watch for truth social posts framing the Kuwait attack as a sign of Iranian weakness, not strength. The domestic narrative and the strategic reality will be completely opposite. Prediction three, another Gulf state gets targeted before the deal is signed. Iran is sending a message to every country hosting American bases.

[00:12:55]Kuwait today, Qatar has Al Udeid. UAE has Al Dhafra. Saudi Arabia has multiple facilities. Each strike expands the pressure. Watch for at least one more Gulf state to face Iranian fire before the ink dries. Let me leave you with the image that summarizes everything happening today.

[00:13:18]Trump at Camp David yesterday.

[00:13:21]Iran is negotiating on fumes. Time is on our side.

[00:13:25]Iran last night.

[00:13:28]Fires a ballistic missile at an American base in Kuwait.

[00:13:32]Trump this morning, "Negotiations are continuing."

[00:13:37]That sequence, Trump's words, Iran's missile, Trump's response, tells you exactly who has leverage in this negotiation. The side negotiating on fumes does not fire at American bases.

[00:13:50]The side that fires at American bases and still gets a phone call the next morning asking for a deal, that side has leverage.

[00:13:59]The question I need your full answer on.

[00:14:02]Iran is attacking and negotiating simultaneously.

[00:14:05]Is this strength or is this desperation?

[00:14:08]And does it matter which one it is if Trump keeps asking for the deal anyway?

[00:14:13]Drop your full reasoning below because in the next 7 days, we will see exactly what the missile was worth at the negotiating table.

[00:14:22]I'm Professor Jiang Shuchen. This is the Shrekin Framework. Like and subscribe because Iran fired a missile last night and something always comes after the missile.