Military chiefs, top officials in Singapore for Shangri-La Dialogue | East Asia Tonight (May 29)

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[00:00:04]This is East Asia Tonight.

[00:00:07]>> Good Friday evening. I'm Mutelli Edwards. Tonight's top stories from East Asia. The world's defense heavyweights are in Singapore for Asia's top security summit. Vietnam's President Tolam will deliver the keynote speech tonight. What signal will he send and to whom? Our team is on the ground with a preview.

[00:00:24]Also, New Zealand is making its biggest defense reset in years with spending set to nearly double by 2033. But after years of underfunding, is it enough? Our reporter speaks to New Zealand's defense minister. Also, a pivotal debate in Europe with Brussels under pressure to shield key industries from cheap Chinese imports, but the block is divided over how far to go. And Taiwan sharply raises its GDP forecast with the techdriven economy now expected to grow 9.6% 6% this year. Its fastest pace in 16 years on strong AI demand.

[00:01:16]Chinese tech powerhouse 10 cent holds an open house for its huge new headquarters in Shenzhen. Our correspondent Deborah Wong takes us on a tour of Penguin Island, where tech naturally blends into workers daily routine.

[00:01:36]The world's top security and defense leaders are gathered in Singapore from today to discuss challenges in Asia, the wider Indo-acific, and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Europe.

[00:01:48]And in about two hours, Vietnamese President Tolam will deliver a keynote speech at the S Shangila dialogue. He is expected to talk about how his country is engaging global defense policy makers in these times of geopolitical uncertainty. Also present, Timor Lestee President Dr. Jose Ramos hot, Singapore President Tam Shamugaratam, Defense Minister Chanch Singh, and US Defense Chief Pete Hexath. Well, China did not send its top brass. It does have a delegation present from the People's Liberation Army National Defense University.

[00:02:21]And if we're joined now by CNA senior China editor Olivia and senior correspondent for Aan Leyong Wit live from the event itself. Uh first to you Olivia, official proceedings about to begin. Just get us up to speed with what exactly has been happening at the Shangila Hotel.

[00:02:39]Well, Italy, I can tell you that the activity and the energy level here at the Shangula Hotel has probably gone up a notch over the past hour or so as we countdown to that keynote speech by Vietnamese leader Tolum. Uh, Wit will have more on that, but I want to just show you what's happening here where I am. A lot of media attention has been focused here at the hotel lobby. You can see uh lots of cameras and journalists staking out this spot because after all there are 44 countries being represented here at this security summit. And what that means is lots of opportunity for engagement. And so we've seen defense ministers, military officials, academics, those from the private sector crisscrossing this space, heading over to meeting rooms or sitting down over coffee for talks. We also know that US defense secretary Pete Hacksth is here in the hotel and we know that he met his Singaporean counterpart Chan Singh earlier in the day. Uh but even before that we know that he was offsite exercising with US troops on board a US warship that is docked here in Singapore. And here's what he had to say to them.

[00:03:56]going to be sitting in a bunch of meetings today. Probably a lot of ministers of defense. Some of it's going to be great. Some of it's going to be really boring. But it's important to build our alliances with our allies, what we're doing out here. But none of it matters. Literally, none of those meetings matter and they're important.

[00:04:12]They're significant. Send here on behalf of the president. None of it matters without what you do.

[00:04:21]Well, lots of attention is going to be on Secretary Hex and that speech that he's set to make tomorrow morning as the Iran war continues to loom in the background. But what we'll also be looking out for is uh uh is his tone with regard to China. If you recall last year, he did say in his speech, which was his first year at the Shangila dialogue, that China poses an imminent threat to the region. So what tone will he take this time round following US President Donald Trump's recent visit to China? Also we have to note that last year China made a strong response is that in turn it was the US that was stirring up tensions here in the region and it made its position very clear even though it Chinese defense minister Dong Jun was not present. Mr. Tong is not present again here uh this year for the second straight year in the row. instead China being represented by a delegation of military experts and scholars.

[00:05:18]>> Right. And I want to bring W into our conversation now. Uh we know that President Tam, he's on a state visit to Singapore. He's also the keynote speaker of the Shangila dialogue. So what are some of the things we should be looking out for in his speech?

[00:05:31]>> Well, before I go into that, let me quickly address what OI said earlier in her life cross. Unlike her location where she described her energy, there's not much energy here yet, but give it some time. hotel because like you said in two hours time uh the keynote speech will be made by Mr. Tolm and the ballroom behind me will be where all the action is happening. So that energy I guarantee you will flow to this part of the hotel. Back to your earlier question. Let's start with the state visit. Mr. Tolm has wrapped up his trip to Singapore where he met President Tama Shamaradam as well as Prime Minister uh Lawrence Wong. I've also had a glimpse of Mr. Tolam's planned itinerary and meetings on the sidelines while at the Shangala dialogue. These are planned meetings. Some have already materialized but it's still fluid. But based on what's planned uh the the countries that the Vietnam delegation will meet will of course include Singapore, the US, Japan, Tim and Australia. Now looking at this lineup, you get a sense of the strategic thinking behind Vietnam's foreign policy. Many of these countries uh most of these countries are CSPs which are your comprehensive strategic partnerships to a Hanoi. And this is in a short uh in a nutshell the highest level of diplomatic hierarchy if you will. And if you look at the plan meetings again it would allow in each meeting for Hanoi to articulate what's important to it in his foreign policy your strategic balance economic security uh as well as perhaps your assean integration. That said, the good summary of how Hanoi looks at foreign policy would be, like I said earlier, the keynote speech that's happening in about two hours time in this part of the hotel.

[00:07:08]>> Uh, right. And, uh, I know that this next question is for the both of you, but I would just like to uh, get Olivia to start this off first. I mean, good things all come in threes and there are lots of things to be looking out for uh, at this dialogue. So, but what are the top three things uh, Ollie you'll be looking out for this weekend?

[00:07:28]tough to pick. But first on my list is how the US China relationship is going to play out. We know that the Chinese defense minister is not here. Instead, the delegation is being led by Major General Manging who is a professor with the National Defense University of the People's Liberation Army. How will he respond to Secretary Hex speech? We know that he will be speaking at a smaller special session tomorrow. The second thing that we'll be looking out for also uh the Japanese and uh South Korean defense ministers who will be making their debut uh here at the Shangula dialogue. We know that there are simmering tensions between China and Japan over those comments made by the Japanese prime minister over Taiwan. And my third uh thing that I'll be looking out for is how the situation in the Middle East and the Iran war, how is that going to be discussed here at the dialogue? We know that uh Qatar's deputy prime minister and uh defense minister will be speaking here at one of the plenary sessions and we know that they are involved in the negotiations between Iran and the US. So there'll be a lot to look out for, but those are my top three.

[00:08:46]and wicket jump in here now. What are your top three?

[00:08:51]>> Yeah, it is still this historic keynote speech because I want to see to what extent Vietnam is using this SLD platform to advance its own interests on the world stage. I'm also a ve very keen since I cover assean on this special address by Timlesa President Jose. Uh Di is of course the newest ASA member. we will get a sense of DIY's worldview and how it further plans to integrate into ASEAN. And the last thing I'm looking out for because I can only pick three.

[00:09:19]The last thing we're looking out for uh is the perhaps any progress or next step of the Ocus deal which is basically your uh uh your nuclearpowered submarine project uh between UK, US and Australia because any uh headlines about Ocus would have implications on the Indo-Pacific.

[00:09:37]>> Right. Lots to look out for. Thank you so much to you both. CNA senior China editor Olivia Seong and senior correspondent for ASEAN Leangit.

[00:09:48]In other news, EU Commission leaders are set together today for talks on ramping up trade defenses against what's now widely described as China shock 2.0.

[00:09:58]Now, the meeting will review the EU's economic and trade policies in light of what Brussels sees as unfair competition from Chinese rivals. The trade gap between Beijing and the 27 nation block is getting wider. The EU trade deficit with China hit around $420 billion US last year, meaning Chinese exports exceeded EU imports significantly.

[00:10:21]Beijing in response has warned that it will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.

[00:10:29]Well, we've got William Densow has been tracking the story for CNA and he joins us live from Brussels. Uh so William, European leaders, they've been talking about de-risking, not decoupling from China. So what does that strategy mean in practice and and is the EU now moving towards a tougher stance?

[00:10:51]>> Well, as far as Beijing is concerned, as you mentioned, they believe that the tactics or what's being proposed by the European Commission amounts to protectionist policies. That is certainly not how uh the commission sees it. We've heard from Stefan Sjou, the commissioner for industry here in Europe. He says, as you mentioned, that this is not a break in the relationship, not a breakup, but more of a rebalancing. Essentially, he says that the threats posed by what they deem as unfair trade practices by Beijing amounts to an existential threat facing a number of critical industries here in Europe. industries including chemicals, including metals, including clean technologies as well. That is why commissioners are gathering to discuss what could come next using some of the defensive tools at its disposal. This could mean the potential of introducing quotas, tariffs on top of those quotas if they are exceeded going forward. But a real questions as to whether there is the political appetite to take such action.

[00:12:00]So will there appears to be a divide within Europe with countries like France and Italy. Well they are pushing for tougher action but Germany remains somewhat cautious. So help us understand this then. Why is Germany reluctant to escalate trade tensions with Beijing?

[00:12:19]>> That's absolutely right. there are real division despite the fact that there being large consensus at least from those at the European Commission uh that the trade relationship is in many eyes unfair and perhaps not sustainable for a number of sectors. That is why we've seen really uh this push from the European Commission to try and bolster its competitiveness on the world stage and this is seen as a core tenant of it.

[00:12:47]But of course, member states very much need to have buy in as well. And you mentioned the discrepancies, the likes of Germany, their auto sector incredibly sensitive uh to the Chinese market. That is why there are some reservations there. Um while for French, the French industries such as the uh metals sector far more seeking to be more perhaps protectionist in nature. Interestingly, there have been reports that Spain that was initially supportive of u this proposal that was floated uh most aggressively perhaps by Paris have now somewhat grown more concerned. Spain of course is one of those in Europe that seem to have the strongest relationship with Beijing >> and uh the EU much like other countries also looking to diversify their supply chains especially when it comes to rare earths and semiconductors. But will how realistic is it though for Europe to reduce its uh dependence uh on China in these critical sectors?

[00:13:50]This has been a huge topic not just competitiveness for the EU to be but to be more resilient as well to be able to absorb global shocks whether from choke point seen with the straight of hormuz or with a growing trade disputes be it with China the likes of the United States that is why we've seen these free trade agreements either brokered or gaining traction with the likes of India with the likes of Malaysia Indonesia uh Philippines to name just a few merkas or the block of South American nations as well. However, these kinds of deals, they take a long time and individually they're just far smaller than these huge trade deals with the likes of China. So, it is seen as part of a broader strategy for the European Union. But any kind of seismic breakth from Beijing overnight would certainly be catastrophic when it comes to their reliance on things like these critical rare earths. Well, >> thanks for breaking down that EU China trade tensions for us. Uh William Densow there reporting from Brussels.

[00:14:49]Well, time now for a short break, but coming up next on East Asia Tonight, wage negotiations in South Korea becoming more aggressive with a minority Samsung Electronics Union challenging a pay deal in court and Kaka's union pressing for profit sharing bonuses.

[00:15:07]Plus, China's export prices are rising at their fastest pace in 3 years, lifted by AI demand. But not every exporter is benefiting.

[00:15:30]Hello again. Good to have your company this Friday evening on East Asia.

[00:15:33]Tonight we've got Olivia Mazuki standing by now with the very latest in business news. So Liv, it appears that Taiwan's economy is getting a major lift from the global AI boom. Tell us more.

[00:15:44]>> That's right. So Otelli, we know that Taiwan plays a key role in the global AI supply chain lead led by TSMC, the largest world, the world's largest contract chipmaker. And with AI demand surging, Taiwan is reaping the benefits.

[00:15:58]The economy is on track for its fastest growth in 16 years. Powered by the global boom in artificial intelligence, the government expects GDP to grow 9.6% this year, sharply higher than its earlier forecast of 7.7%.

[00:16:13]And that would mark the island's strongest expansion since 2010. The Statistics Agency also revised first quarter growth higher to 14.5%, the fastest quarterly pace in nearly 48 years. Strong AI demand drove Taiwan's economy to expand nearly 9% last year and was among the top performers globally. Its stock market also on a tear, trading near a record high and passing India as the world's fifth biggest by market cap. The officials say demand from the AI buildout is beyond expectations even as the Middle East crisis royals global oil markets.

[00:16:56]South Korea also benefiting from the AI boom, but a recent decision on profit sharing at Samsung Electronics has complicated matters for some business owners. A minority union is planning to challenge the recently approved wage agreement. The labor group has been criticizing the deal for mainly benefiting employees in the chip unit, living out workers from other divisions.

[00:17:20]The Samsung Electronics Co. union, which has about 13,000 members, mostly consists of workers from its consumer electronics department. It initially filed an injunction to suspend the vote that took place this week. A legal console for the union said it will be asking the court to suspend the implementation of the pay deal.

[00:17:40]Documents are to be submitted next week and a ruling is expected to take place within a month. The pay deal could see workers in the semiconductor division getting annual bonuses averaging about $400,000 US. Those in other units are estimated to receive some $4,000.

[00:17:59]The agreement was struck in the 11th hour to avert a planned 18-day strike, but Samsung Electronics co-un left negotiations before the deal was finalized, citing concerns that it was unfair to workers outside the chip division.

[00:18:16]And South Korean tech firm Kakao has called union demands for profit sharing unrealistic. The remarks were made after government mediated talks broke down earlier this week. Kaka management said the compensation ask would place a huge burden on operations. It added that pay should be aligned with a company's ability to invest in the future and shareholders interests as competition in the AI sector is intensifying globally.

[00:18:46]The union has not disclosed its exact demands, but reports say that workers discussed allocating 10% of operating profit to bonuses. Union members across Kakao and four affiliates have backed a plan to stage a strike next month. And this comes in the wake of a deal clinched by Samsung Electronics Union.

[00:19:09]Chinese tech giant Tencent is holding a public open house for its new headquarters in Sunshine this weekend.

[00:19:15]But it's not just any building. The campus spans 809,000 square meters and is built entirely on reclaimed land.

[00:19:25]Penguin Island, named so after 10 cents mascot, may only be 30% done, but there are already more than 14,000 employees working there. The island can accommodate around 80,000 people when the work is completed, and it includes conference and exhibition venues, schools, a museum, office spaces, as well as 11 blocks of staff dormatories.

[00:19:50]CNA's Deborah Wong had the firstand look at the life on the island.

[00:19:57]This massive campus is as big as 113 football fields. Where I am right now is the R&D center. And all the way to the back are staff apartments, a sport center, a clinic, and even two schools.

[00:20:09]Now, getting from one block to another can be quite a walk. So, people here use autonomous vehicles like this and this.

[00:20:16]And they can even take you all the way to a metro station just outside the island.

[00:20:23]And then we have solar powered benches just like this. Now it's a clear sunny day in Shenzhen and so it's absorbing a lot of energy right now which is great because then I can charge my phone just like this. And these are just a few examples of how deeply integrated tech is in daily life on this island.

[00:21:03]Fore speech.

[00:21:41]Fresh from her trip to Penguin Island, Deborah Wong now joins us live from Ascension. Deb, sounds like an interesting trip there. Tencent is framing Penguin Island as more than a new headquarters. What is the broader economic significance of the location and what could it mean for the race uh to attract tech talent?

[00:22:05]When we look at China's push for self- resilience in science and technology under its new uh 15year plan, the smart city model that we see Penguin Island encompasses really becomes more significant. It becomes even more visible. You know, we've just seen uh some examples of how tech is used. that enables R&D to be carried out, tested in real time. You've seen the autonomous vehicles picking people up. Uh and there are also uh robots uh robots patrolling the island doing deliveries, maintenance. We didn't see all that today because the event was going on and so they had to uh put them aside for the time being. But I want to identify I want to talk about the location right now. Penguin Island is situated in Tienhai district. Now that's an economic zone within Shenan city and uh that zone is also identified as an international spot because it fosters crossber collaboration with Hong Kong and international partners. So what it does is a signal that tensen does have global ambitions. I spoke to an analyst to understand what kind of draw this would have on talent and he says that because the entire development is set up in a campus style, it can attract uh overseas talent and also talent from other provinces. And if you if we look at the staff apartments that I talked about earlier, um it's going for 2,000 yen um for a small studio and that's about 300 USD, which is half the market price. So, it is, you know, quite incentivizing.

[00:23:30]Let's have a a listen.

[00:23:33]The big move I think represents you know Tensson's ambition to be more global to make sure they get the even more value out of their own internal you know talents pools or resources by consolidating all the important parts of the group quite a number of you know great universities from both you know basically the rest of mainland China including China university picking university Chinua but also you know university from Hong Kong we have already assumption in Shenzhen and I believe okay with Tensson becoming more like a campus more like a university it will absolutely help you know Shenzhen to become like a university city or town >> now that's important because Shenzhen as a tier one city doesn't have uh as long a history as other tier one Chinese cities, cities like Beijing and Shanghai where there are top universities that attract a lot of overseas talent and and top talent as well. And so, uh, Professor Ben believes that this could eventually pave the way, uh, for more branded universities to set up in Shenzhen and so then attract more people to come into the city. And now this is very important because the influx of tech companies uh together with Penguin Island is going to be you know uh ve a very appealing um development for for talent to come and it's it's it's key because this is the kind of model that China is urging for uh deeper integration between industry and universities because they believe the synergy will allow um China to produce more highquality innovation and it really is part of the global tech race that China is in right now and we also understand that you know Penguin Island could be one of the landmarks that overseas delegation could visit uh when APE rolls around in November. So it really does you know portray this as a symbol of China's tech prowess beyond just economic development. Back to you.

[00:25:40]>> All right De thank you for being our eyes and ears on the ground as always.

[00:25:43]Deborah Wong reporting from Sen.

[00:25:48]China's export prices rising at their fastest pace in three years, driven by higher energy costs and booming demand for AI related technology. Overall export prices rose 5% in April from a year ago. The biggest increase since 2023 and a sharp turnaround after years of declines. The strongest gains were seen in mineral fuels, including petroleum products, which jumped 22%.

[00:26:14]Fertilizer prices were also up 17% reflecting higher natural gas costs. A global rush to build AI infrastructure has also pushed up chip prices, lifting the value of electronics and machinery exports by more than 20%. But the gains were not broadbased. Prices for many traditional manufactured goods, including textiles and plastics, continue to fall. Analysts say that intense competition is making it difficult for manufacturers to pass on higher costs, squeezing profits and potentially weighing on wages and consumer spending.

[00:26:52]And it's been a techheavy week particularly in Taiwan where Nvidia CEO Jansen Huang is visiting. Last night he met with some of the island's top names in tech. Among them, longtime SS chair Johnny Shi, quantum computer chairman Barry L, who's been adopted at Taiwan's AI missionary, and as well as TSMC CEO CC Way. Chiefs of global chip makers like Intel and Qualcomm are expected in Taiwan next week. Industry watchers are expecting discussions on securing the AI supply chain in Taiwan. Earlier this week, Nvidia also announced it is building new headquarters in Taipei.

[00:27:40]Four years ago, 5 years ago, Nvidia was spending about 10 15 billion a year in Taiwan.

[00:27:51]Now we're spending 100 going to $150 billion dollars in Taiwan each year.

[00:28:00]>> Nvidia spends at this point, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure and most of our spend is in Taiwan. And so we've we've invested through the most the best form of investment, which is business, uh, hundreds of billions of dollars into Taiwan.

[00:28:26]>> Jensen Huang spoke to CNA on Taiwan and the future of jobs as well as leadership in the AI era. That full interview on CNA correspondent in an hour. Catch it here on CNA, CNA.Isia, and our mobile platforms.

[00:28:44]And that's a wrap in business Otilli for the week. Back to you.

[00:28:47]>> Thanks very much for that Olivia. All right, coming up on East Asia tonight, more coverage from Shangala Dialogue right here in Singapore. The forum is set to focus on how major powers are looking to manage competing crises. Our senior correspondent Olivia returns with a guest to unpack what's at stake.

[00:29:19]This is East Asia Tonight and here are the headlines we're following. Global defense leaders are gathering at Asia's premier defense summit for talks on security challenges facing the India Pacific. All eyes are on the keynote speech later tonight set to be delivered by Vietnam's president.

[00:29:36]New Zealand is making its biggest defense reset in years with spending set to nearly double by 2033. New Zealand Defense Minister Chris Pank speaks with CNA about how he plans to see this through. And Taiwan sharply raises its GDP forecast with a techdriven economy expected to grow 9.6% this year. That's the fastest pace in 16 years on strong AI demand.

[00:30:05]A security challenges across Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific in focus for defense and security ministers as well as military chiefs gathered at the Shangila dialogue. And I've got CNA senior China editor and senior correspondent Olivia joining us live from the Shangila Hotel in Singapore yet again. And uh Olivia, you've got plenty to unpack uh in terms of what's at stake at this year's dialogue. And I believe you have a guest to help you do just that.

[00:30:32]Yes, Italy. I'm certainly glad that I'm having some assistance here trying to pack all that's about to happen here at the Shangula dialogue. I'm joined by Mr. Ang Chik who is director and CEO at the IC's youshach institute here in Singapore. Chan, thanks so much for joining us this evening. First off, let's just start by talking about the Shangrila dialogue as an event. It's been built as Asia's premier security summit given all that's happening around the world in geopolitics. How does it still remain relevant today?

[00:31:03]>> Well, the today's context, international environment is more volatile than ever.

[00:31:08]And in such an environment, it becomes even more difficult for anybody to make informed decisions, good decisions. So having a forum like that where more than 50 senior officials, defense ministers are gathered is a great opportunity for countries to lay out their positions to have them scrutinize and then for each other to understand uh the policy positions and the nuances of each other better. In that way it makes for better policy making. In addition, besides the big sessions, there are lots of uh smaller site meetings where people reestablish relationships, maintain relationships and that's really quite crucial.

[00:31:45]>> You mentioned it's important for people to talk but how much of the relevance of the Shangular dialogue depends on the representation especially by major powers like the US and China. We know that uh the US defense secretary Pete Hex is present but uh his Chinese counterpart is not. China represented by a relatively lower uh you know delegation. So what's your take?

[00:32:09]>> Well, for sure everybody looks forward to uh actual meeting of the minds between the secretary of war, secretary of defense of the US and the Chinese defense minister. So it it is a pity that the defense minister of the uh of China is not here uh today. But at least secretary of war had se coming indicates that the US is still placing a lot of importance on the region. is particularly important because I think given what is happening in the Middle East, many people are in fact questioning whether the US presence in this region is here to stay. Um, Admiral Dong coming I guess conceivably is for good reasons. Uh, there are lots of military reshuffers going on in China.

[00:32:48]So maybe he has to attend to that but it is a pity. In addition, I guess uh maybe the the Chinese have set up their son forum. So maybe they think that dialogues can carry on there but you know the secretary of war doesn't attend that and if the Chinese defense militant doesn't attend the shang dialogue we may have two forums as talking past each other rather than having real conversations. So if I may suggest uh in order for there to be a better conversation in Shangala dialogue that ISS may want to consider sort of increasing widening the representation of countries in uh Shanga dialogue such that uh voices from different parts are more equally spread out and the Chinese won't feel that they are being put on the spot as often as maybe in the past they have been.

[00:33:36]Despite that, we do know that the US China relationship is going to be in focus and this comes on the back of uh US President Donald Trump's visit to China where we saw more positive signs and talk about stability. What will you be looking out for as indication of this stability that is spoken about by two the two leaders?

[00:34:00]>> I I think for sure both sides are looking for stability. Um in that aspect particularly uh I think people look forward to listening to uh secretary of war hacksv speech tomorrow. Last year his speech was pretty tough using language that's pretty tough you know deterren deterring aggression forward deployment. So this year I think people want to see whether the emphasis, the tone, the language is toned down in alignment with what the leaders see and Trump had agreed to to sort of uh be uh uh um to to emphasize cooperation more than confrontation.

[00:34:40]Um yeah >> and we know that uh besides the USChina relationship a lot of uh attention also has been on the situation in the Middle East that's looming in the background uh the Iran war we know that uh the situation in the street of Hamus is affecting countries around the world um given the energy security concerns. How do you expect that to uh play out? Is Middle East instability going to overshadow some of perhaps the more traditional security concerns here in the Indo-Pacific for example over the South China Sea or Taiwan?

[00:35:19]>> Um if you mean overshadow means that the Indochina or rather Indoacific issues are of less importance then I don't think you overshadow at all. If anything, what's happening in uh straits of Hormus and the Middle East is informing regional countries what to think about how they should handle future crisis. Uh you know coming on the back of the pandemic and then now straits of homeus I think many regional countries will understand and realize that their buffer to handle crisis is actually very low and their margin for error is very low. So if anything if if in the U if in in Iran uh the US actually more or less had gained a military victory quite soon and yet cannot achieve a political outcome if the Chinese and the US were to come to blows in the Taiwan straits or East China Sea or South China Sea uh what the regional countries will have to deal with will be much more severe. Um yeah, >> and that's something we'll be looking out for tomorrow when the US defense secretary gives his speech and and we'll be looking out for the reactions to that from uh not just the Chinese but all the delegates that are represented here, 44 countries. But I want to talk about tonight, we know that we're expecting that keynote speech from the Vietnamese leader to uh we know that Vietnam has uh you know been very careful about balancing its foreign policy. So when the Vietnamese leader gives his speech tonight, who do you think he'll be addressing? Will it be uh the region, US, China or other countries? I >> I think there will be multiple levels.

[00:36:55]Uh in the first place, he's probably speaking to his own people. Uh the fact that he's coming to such a big forum to give a keynote speech, probably he would want to reflect that back to his citizens to see that Vietnam has really come of age, that he has that international stature. He probably want to tell uh his own people how he can bring uh sort of technological benefits, economic benefits back to uh Vietnam by engaging in such diplomacy for the region. I would expect uh Tlam to be speaking of agency of autonomy and in that sense uh encouraging other sort of small media countries uh to have that sense of agency not to be sucked up in that US Chinese uh confrontation but to shape events to their own advantage and I think Vietnam will probably be in a position to say that they are ready to contribute to that. uh so that will be something that's welcomed by all the smaller and middle countries. For the US and China, I would expect that uh he will want to tell the US that uh Vietnam is interested in further cooperation and collaboration uh and that also Vietnam believes in the rule of law in maritime security uh norms. for the Chinese. I think we want to let the Chinese know that again he he welcomes cooperation in deep ways and also that uh he's not about to sort of slide into the US camp.

[00:38:20]>> It won't be long before we hear him deliver that speech. But lastly, to wrap things up, could you just help us to put things into perspective? you're going into uh the weekend knowing that there's going to be a lot of speeches made, a lot of statements, rebuttals probably sparks may fly, but what would you say would be the best outcome for the region um at the end of this Shangular dialogue on Sunday?

[00:38:46]>> I think the best outcome will be that there's genuine conversation in the conference where people are really listening to each other, adjusting their position if they need to, taking it into account the general interest and each other's interests. It would be a pity if people were just talking past each other, making statements. Uh for the middle countries, I think they will welcome opportunities not just at the plenary sessions but at a lot of the site meetings to discuss cooperation to increase the res resilience of the region of everybody. Uh and then I guess for the US and the Chinese, they would want to probably use this opportunity to emphasize again that they have achieved some stability in their relationship.

[00:39:24]>> Well certainly a lot to look out for. We talked about USChina relationship tonight's speech and then also the Middle East situation um and also your point about you know it's not just dialogue but there are implications after this weekend as well for over the overall uh security architecture. So thank you so much for sharing those expert insights with us. I was speaking with Mr. Ang who is director and CEO at the IC's Yu Eshark Institute. Back to you Otelli. There's some great insights there. Really enjoyed that interview. Thanks so very much. CNA senior China editor and senior correspondent Olivia live from the Shangala Hotel in Singapore.

[00:40:05]Well, time now for another break. But coming up next on East Asia Tonight, more coverage from the Shangala dialogue right here in Singapore. New Zealand is in the middle of its biggest defense reset in years. CNN Tanui shares her conversation with Defense Minister Chris Pank right after this break.

[00:40:35]New Zealand is in the middle of its biggest defense reset in years, looking to nearly double its defense spend to 2% of GDP by 2033. But the New Zealand Defense Force has suffered from years of underfunding in peace time. And there are questions about whether even this spending hike is enough. Well, Tanui joins us now live from the general dialogue in Singapore. Uh Chu, I believe you've just uh finished talking to uh New Zealand Defense Minister Chris Pank.

[00:41:03]Uh tell us, walk us through what did he say?

[00:41:09]>> It's a tough security environment and after years of being protected by the seas, New Zealand now has to respond, to adapt, and to spend the money. Uh Mr. Chris Pank was appointed defense minister last month and this is his first outing at the Shangrila dialogue here in Singapore. I started by asking him whether New Zealand is looking to play a bigger role in the Indoacific.

[00:41:33]>> Well, I think New Zealand's always been present in the Indoacific. Um clearly the Asia region is really important for us. Uh we trade uh in important ways both as export markets but of course import too. strong people-to-people links uh and uh for all the reasons that we consider ourselves an Asian nation, it's important uh that we retain those links and of course are present in a defense capacity. As for our Pacific island neighbors, it's important that we uh support their aspirations uh and are respectful of their desire that we have an ocean of peace. So, anything that we can do to contribute to that and of course for others to see that uh part of the world in the same light uh is is helpful for us to be able to do. So we'll continue to do search and rescue activities, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in the event of severe weather events and earthquakes and other natural disasters. And of course we want to contribute strongly as well in the field of fisheries protection very dear to the hearts of our Pacific cousins uh and also uh transnational organized crime such as drug smuggling.

[00:42:34]>> Ocean of peace you say and you've also said that the seas are no longer a safety barrier for New Zealand today.

[00:42:40]You call them actually vital national interests to be secured. From whom and from what?

[00:42:45]>> Yeah. Well, it's a an interest to be secured against any external threat uh to uh New Zealand's way of life. And of course, as a maritime nation, uh we're heavily dependent on the sea. Once upon a time, it felt as though it was a buffer between us and the rest of the world or a safety barrier as we've said.

[00:43:02]uh but now uh realizing that we can't take for granted the territorial integrity of uh the 12 nautical mile limit that we have but our exclusive economic zone and the other interests that we have in terms of freedom of navigation uh and of course um the uh airways and and on the sea routes as well. Uh we know that we need to protect against any uh sovereign incursion or any threat to those kinds of interests that we have. You're very careful not to name any names or you know define any specific threats here. Um but there have been recent incidents. Uh China has accused the New Zealand patrol aircraft of harassment at sea last month and last year uh the Chinese Navy held live fire drills in the Tasman Sea that diverted uh commercial flights. How close did these incidents get to becoming dangerous confrontations? In terms of the um People's Liberation Army Navy Task Force last year in the Tasman Sea that you've quite rightly referred to, uh we uh expressed publicly but also privately our um unease with the fact that uh live firings took place in a way that disrupted commercial uh aviation.

[00:44:10]Uh we know that it's important that uh we behave in a predictable, consistent uh stable fashion and we do uh but we expect that of others too including China. Uh so with the uh recent incident in which uh China had said publicly uh that New Zealand uh was um operating in an area um that it was not entitled to uh our very clear view is actually um and as backed by the evidence uh of our navigation systems that we were operating in exactly an area that we were entitled to do and in fact conducting operations in support of the UN mandated uh sanctions against North Korea. So uh we have every right to be present in those ways and we'll continue to do that.

[00:44:51]>> How concerned are you about you know further misunderstandings u miscalculations at sea with uh you know the presence continuing presence of New Zealand in these regional waters?

[00:45:01]>> Yeah, it's important for all key players uh in the region and everyone who's present whether in the air or on the sea uh or on land for that matter to act in a way that is both safe and professional. Uh New Zealand will continue to do that and we call on others to uh act in the same way.

[00:45:16]>> The New Zealand Defense Force is small, 15,000 people in total including reser and um civilian personnel. Last year, your predecessor Judith Collins actually said the NZDF was in ICU.

[00:45:30]Is the spending hike on defense of 2% of GDP enough to take the force out of intensive care?

[00:45:36]>> Yeah, I I think we're on the path to a much better place. uh and I think it's important that we have that upward trajectory. Uh but of course there's an open question about whether we uh should move faster. Uh and every two years following the release of last year's defense capability plan, we've committed to reviewing progress and if necessary uh speeding up our trajectory to 2% of GDP. Um but we won't review it in a way that would see us spend less. So uh in that sense um we're mindful of the need to um react to circumstances as they change. Uh in terms of personnel numbers though uh I think it's fair to say that while we have a relatively small defense force and will always be small by international comparison to larger nations uh at the same time we've got the opportunity through technological advancement including an uncrrewed systems to be quite capable uh as a relatively small nation and without a lot of uh uh sailors and soldiers and aviators necessarily to be able to punch above our weight.

[00:46:35]>> Yeah. And you say that Singapore and New Zealand together can do uh force multiplying. What do you mean by that?

[00:46:41]>> What I mean is that we're stronger together. Uh so uh there's an aspect of interoperability that says uh if we have the same equipment then we can um understand those systems and work well together and um and cooperate in that way. But actually there's also a force multiplier element where uh if we have different systems uh different uh expertise among our personnel in different niches then in all kinds of different environments between us we can cover the eventualities. So it might be for example that uh New Zealand continues to have uh a replenishment uh ship uh for example we've got uh one at the moment that uh refuels Australian vessels uh quite often and if we can do that work alongside Australia as well as Singapore uh then we'll ensure that we've got our respective fleets out uh in the South China Sea or the Tasman Sea as the case may be or wherever on the globe uh in a way that um uh increases the ability and the capability of The minister is adding diplomacy to that regional capability with a flurry of bilateral meetings here in Singapore.

[00:47:50]And that was New Zealand Defense Minister Chris Pank speaking to CNA here at the Shangrila Dialogue. Back to you.

[00:47:57]>> Thanks very much for that to you all there reporting on the ground at the Shangila Dialogue. I'm going to leave you to take a bit of a breather because the highlight of tonight's opening of the Shangila dialogue which is a keynote speech by Vietnamese President Tolam happening tonight and CNA is covering that for you in full on Asia tonight coming to you in an hour. And our correspondents also have more from the venue of the Shangula dialogue.

[00:48:22]And that wraps up East Asia Tonight for the Friday edition. Don't forget your headlines anytime at cna.asia. Thanks for watching. Heat up