Col. Jacques Baud: Trump’s Last Card Just SHATTERED Israel

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:05]Hi everybody. Today is Monday, May 25th, 2026 and our dear friend or brother Carl Jacquo is here with us. Welcome back Carl.

[00:00:13]>> Hi Nema. Thank you very much. Happy to be back.

[00:00:16]>> Yeah, let me start with the negotiations. I don't know the negotiate the messages between Iran and the United States. And here is what from Iranian side we've learned because unfortunately whatever we hear from Donald Trump and his administration I don't know we cannot trust because they're trying to twist the things they're trying to manipulate but at least we have the Iranian side talking they what they're saying to us is that Iran the the talks or whatever is happening the messages they're sending to the United States and the United States sending into Iran is focus on ending war, not the straight of foremost, not the Iranian nuclear program. And ending war, it means that the United States has to do something with Israel and with the case of Lebanon. It's not just about Iran and the United States. Are we going to pass the first step to get to the second step and the third step? Is that possible from what we've seen so far?

[00:01:25]Well, as you said, this is almost trying to square the circle and because Trump's needs a success in the war he started and because of his ego because of probably also internal pressure within the US uh um administ not admin not necessarily administration but let's say institutions because you have people who are not part of the administration such as Lindsey Graham for instance who and others who hate Iran and again this is not new we are part of this bipartisan issue regarding Iran, China uh Israel and things like this. So this is the the the the US system uh make a lot of pressure uh against against Trump. In fact, Trump would have been much better inspired not to start this war because now he has trapped himself into a situation where he lies sitting between two chairs. Uh on the one hand those Lindsey Graham and others who want him to continue the war who they don't even know exactly what they want to achieve but certainly want to destroy Iran. That's certainly one thing. And you have the reality of the market. And the reality of the market is twofold. You have first the international market that is affected by the price of oil. And that's not just because of straight of armors. It's also because of all the oil um infrastructure. Yeah. You that you may have in the GCC countries that are under the threat of being destroyed if the war resumes. Remember that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE and others were part of the aggressors and therefore as as long as we have a state of war between Iran and those countries, all these oil facilities might be destroyed. And I just mentioned here the oil facilities, but you may have other uh um facilities that may affect also uh international trade. I mean even the the the ports for instance um seap ports that may be destroyed and may prevent the export of other product than oil such as sulfur uh ura and others for fertilizer and things like this aluminum and others. So the the the fact that the US started this war endangered not simply the the region but also the international trade on very specific and very strategic material.

[00:04:19]That's the the and second uh you have the US uh economy because I mean and that's also collateral damage from the international economy because the price of oil will affect the US in in a lot of different ways. I mean the the energy is basically embedded in any kind of product you buy. uh whether you buy a cell phone, a car or or even chocolate, energy goes into this price because on transportation this also based on manufacturer and all that. meaning that Trump is now sitting between those two chairs, war or a and and and the the or peace if you want which is uh um which which is countered by a lot of people within the US and war with the danger of having a worse even worsening economy and and there is a very important factor as well that is his ego you know He started a war and he's a winner. He's the one who wins everything and suddenly now he realizes that he's back to square one. He has not gained anything. He has antagonized his most precious allies in the Middle East.

[00:05:49]He has led Israel to destruction. He has led Israel to to international and worldwide despise because uh uh this attack, this unprovoked, unjustified attack against Iran uh has added to all the war crimes that Israel has done so far. and and all that. If you if you draw the line uh you will see that we are largely below zero in terms of results and the only thing he can he could save or salvage from from an agreement is a good deal. But what is a good deal for him? It cannot be. And so this is this is a situation where he whatever he does he will be in a bad position. He has just to choose between the bad and the worst position. That's that's what he is. So we we are in the in this situation and that's the reason why it will be so difficult to craft an agreement because on the other hand Iran as we have said many times Iran is fighting for an ex existential threat Iran understands that if the conditions are not set definitively that means that when if if we don't settle this conflict once for all Today this will resume and even if I would even dare to say that even if Iran settle this conflict with the US my view is that there's absolutely no guarantee that Israel will not try to resume it at a later stage. meaning that Iran needs to have even more that it would have required uh uh or requested before because it needs guarantees not simply a signature but also guarantees and safeguards so that it doesn't restart.

[00:08:02]That means a commitment by Israel and that will be very hard to get because Israel has never abbidden by any commitment they made in the past starting in in 1947 48 because 1947 Israel didn't exist but um they never uh uh they never come uh let's say implement or or um oh boy I don't have the missing the word is is is missing now uh they never manage to abide by their own commitment and that that's the problem and Iran knows that and every people in the region including Lebanon and that's the reason also why Iran wants to include Lebanon in that because obviously this is Israel is a regional problem as such and and and that so that's where we are.

[00:09:05]So I don't expect to have a a resolution. In addition, we have also to say Iran, we have said that many times uh times time works for Iran. They are not under pressure. Of course, if you have a resumption of strikes against Iran, they will certainly suffer. But since their fight is existential, they are ready to go to to go into this risk and because what is at stake is much higher than even a number of of of human life. That's the problem. Um and and Trump has put Iran in this situation.

[00:09:51]Now I I I don't see any other alternative for the US than just accept that it has been defeated and to accept the conditions of Iran because otherwise we'll continue uh this this crisis.

[00:10:11]Colonel, the complexity of the issue between Israel and Lebanon is part of this problem. And we we've seen various footages coming out of Lebanon using drones and hitting the targets in southern part of Lebanon in Israel. And the new, you know, footage is show that they're using thermal cameras, you know, to hit Israeli soldiers.

[00:10:40]This is new for Israel in my opinion.

[00:10:42]This is not We haven't seen these sort of footages before. This shows how the reality of the war is changing between Israel and Lebanon.

[00:10:52]Well, not not only there because I mean all that in fact derives from the de the evolution or development of technologies regarding uh the um the drones technology and you have miniaturiz miniaturized uh um optical systems and things like this. So we have to say the conflict in Ukraine has in fact uh provided kind of a test ground for such a technology and Hezbollah is is profiting from that. In addition to that you know um thermal technology used to be extremely expensive 40 years ago or even 20 years ago. Today it's extremely affordable. you find it in your cell phone or mo almost. So um there is no wonder that you have this technology arriving on a battlefield in with Hezbollah today. The thing is that in fact the the situation in Lebanon is not complex. You may have a a difficult we have probably difficulty to have the the right overview on the battlefield because the Israelis don't communicate much and the Hezbollah can only communicate what it can in order not to endanger its own situation. So we have only a partial view on the battlefield. But by and large, the Israelis are experiencing now in Lebanon exactly what they experienced in 2006 with other means, with other weapons, but but in the same they are uh countering exactly the same fierce resistance that they encountered in 2006.

[00:12:52]The the thing is that the Hezbollah is again it's a it's a resistance organization.

[00:13:01]You Hezbollah doesn't fight in Israel.

[00:13:06]I mean they attack with missiles or artillery. They attack the uh logistics of of Israel or or some command post.

[00:13:16]But you don't have Isbellah fighters fighting on the territory of Israel because again there is no claim over Israeli territory. The Hezbollah has only claims over territory Lebanese territory and therefore they fight on their own territory. That's where we have a lot of fallacies uh uh um circulating about this conflict. There's absolutely no reason, no justification, no motives for Israel to be in Lebanon.

[00:13:52]Zero Zch.

[00:13:56]And and that's the that's the point. And and the Lebanese know that they have been they have experienced several invasion or attempts of invasion in the last 40 years. And therefore now they they they understand how the Israeli work and all that. Now the thing is that Israel is if if you want to invade a country and that's by the way it would be exactly the same problem if the US would like to have a land operation in Iran. By the way, that just show the the u the thing you know it's easy to go and bomb people with aircraft. This is or even besides very easy. I mean it has its own difficulties but in essence it's easy to claim kind of a success when you bomb people from far away.

[00:14:51]>> Yeah. Specifically when the country doesn't have the air defense system which is the case >> especially absolutely absolutely it becomes a total different story when you start to send soldiers infantry because if you want to take a territory you have to occupy it.

[00:15:10]Of course, you can raise the country, the the villages and all that from far away. And the Israeli know how to do that, but eventually if they want to take the territory, they have to take it and to hold it. And that's where the problem comes because the Hezbollah fighters are seasoned fighters. They defend their country. They know why they fight. Well, I'm not sure the Israeli know why they fight.

[00:15:44]That's um probably some are indoctrinated enough, but most of them understand that they are not in their own country while the Hezbollah fights for its own country. And that's that's makes a huge difference. And we see that and and as we had in Gaza by the way, exactly the same thing. Yes. The um the Israelis had a technical and technological superiority, but they had not the determination. I mean, they had the the the the staff, general staff had the determination, but the fighters themselves, we saw that, well, it's easy to to to kill a children, a kid. This is easy. That's that they can do. But to confront a real fighter, that's where the problem starts. And uh that's exactly what the Israelis are experiencing in South Lebanon.

[00:16:46]And um so for that reason um I and and by the way we are also in a case because of course when it when you talk about Gaza you have a although the Gaza case is extremely clear from an international law point of view it's very clear Gaza is Jerusalem and the West Bank are Palestinian territory.

[00:17:12]It's a a state that is recognized by the UN.

[00:17:18]So it's not a fantasy state. It is a state. So when the Israelis invade Gaza, they invade a foreign country. Period.

[00:17:28]Clear. And this country has the right to defend itself.

[00:17:34]And even if the Israelis were surrounding Gaza trying to keep this uh Gaza as a huge concentration camp because that's in effect what it was.

[00:17:49]uh this is considered as occupation if even if you had not physical presence of Israeli soldiers and that also this is defined by international law meaning that all the operations of Israel within Gaza are against the international law but some people may still argue that Gaza is not part of Palestine or whatever you may have this well in Lebanon this discussion is doesn't exist because Lebanon is a country a clear country for everybody. Everybody recognize Lebanon as a country and this the the the presence of Israeli soldiers in Lebanon is illegal regardless of oh you consider the fa the case it's illegal period.

[00:18:45]Therefore, not only the Israelis encounter very strong, very fierce defense from Hezbollah, but at the same time and not but but and the international community recognize although it's also very interesting to see that there's very little reaction especially from Europe to the invasion of Lebanon by um by Israel. But in reality, this is a case that exactly this is exactly the same case as Israel attacking Iran.

[00:19:21]It's the same thing. Basically, the the the problem again we are back to this situation that nobody dares to um criticize or even condemn Israel for what he does. And that's the reality is that you have governments in Europe, the French government uh notably the US government definitely the British government as well and the government in in Germany who are under influence period these government are under influence and that's the reason why they don't dare to use even to to to use the international law to condemn or criticize Israel.

[00:20:12]So that's as again you know I'm I'm not saying that Israel should not exist or think like that but as what I have discussed many times with you uh especially when it came to the situation in Gaza as long as Israel doesn't behave according to the international law I mean that makes this country illegitimate.

[00:20:42]You see this is the the we expect a country as and by the way uh in we have to remember that Israel was created in 1948 but it entered United Nations in 1949 and the condition for Israel to enter the UN as a member was that Israel had to commit itself to commit itself to respect the international law. That was a condition for the Israeli membership to the UN.

[00:21:24]This is I I I to my knowledge this is the only country where people required that because at that time everybody in the UN in the in the UN security council at least at that time understood that Israel had not in one year of existence and even before if we can say what happened just before independence but in one year of existence Israel had never complied with international law.

[00:21:56]Therefore, they imposed to Israel the condition of making an official declaration in which Israel accept to respect the international law in order to be member of the UN.

[00:22:13]Why don't we come back to this declaration today is to me a mystery. I mean a half mystery because we understand the pressure and the influence Israel has in most western countries but in fact everybody knew that at that time and uh and so far Israel has not. I mean if you see the number of resolution condemning I think no country has been more condemned by the United Nations than Israel. There are more than hundred uh uh resolution condemning the actions of Israel and you know it's not condemning Israel as a state as as such because it exists or because they are Jews. It condemned Israel because it behaves badly. This is the behavior that is condemned and and that is something that Israel has never managed to correct within 80 years of existence. and and that I think is tragic um for the especially for all the victims first of all but it's also tragic for Israel itself and that's exactly the reason why we see today uh in a recent poll that Israel has been is today the most hated country in the world and there is no mystery for that and I I I would say even it's logic it's logic because it doesn't behave. It refuses to behave according to international humanitarian law. It behaves like the worst of the dictatorship we had uh in in in the past in in Europe.

[00:23:55]Who can you expect from that?

[00:23:58]Again, this is I think this is uh this is something that Israel should realize.

[00:24:05]seems to me extremely important that um even western countries as you do with the old good friends they would advise Israel to say well guy if you want us to support you you need to behave and once you behave properly then we'll continue to to support you if you don't behave how can I support you that should be the kind of that that's exactly what you would say to a good friend the question is whether Israel is our real friend or not. This is probably the reason why nobody does this because nobody considers Israel as a friend. This probably an explanation but the fact of the matter is that we should see more influence from the the so-called western civilized world whatever that means. But um in order to bring Israel into not back because it has never been in the path of the international law, but to bring Israel into the intern the path of international law. I think that's a key thing to the survival of Israel. If Israel doesn't understand that, it will not survive. Definitely not.

[00:25:25]>> Yeah. The situation Carl is considering Israel is so desperate for Donald Trump because look at what has happened so far. If Donald Trump leaves the region and let everything be you know in the hand of the governments and the countries in the region you see Israel has been diminished militarily, geopolitically in each and every aspect. So he has to do something before leaving the region which is he's trying to put pressure on GCC countries to normalize the relationship between them and Israel. He wants them to sign the Abraham Accord.

[00:26:06]They're talking right now about the yesterday there was in the news that the Donald Trump is forcing GCC countries to sign the Abraham Accord as part of the deal between the United States and GCC countries for you know for the negotiations between the United States and Iran. If you want a deal between the United States and Iran which put an end to the war and you can sell your oil, your gas and everything you have, you have to sign a deal with Israel.

[00:26:35]normalize. We know that's not going to happen because at least from Saudi Arabia, they said there has to be a state called Palestine. They said that multiple times, GCC countries. And is there any other way for Donald Trump to leave the region? Because I don't see that happening. That's why he's putting pressure on allies, not on Iran, you know, with when it comes to the normalization of the relationship with Israel. What is your understanding of that? Well, that's what I said before.

[00:27:11]The key of this the the the peace or the stabilization in the area is not for other countries to have good relations with Israel. The key is that Israel behave according to international law.

[00:27:28]You know what what is they they're taking the problem on the the reverse way. They think that the problem is because people don't recognize Israel.

[00:27:40]No, people would recognize Israel if Israel would be a honest partner.

[00:27:46]And you probably don't even need to have an agreement that would come from itself. If you have a good neighbor, you're happy to share with him. You you know the you you you don't need if you if you are in good relationship with your with your neighbors. You don't need to have the agreement with them. It comes naturally from your position. And if you want to help your neighbor, if he helps you for your car or your garden, whatever, I mean, they will do do that naturally.

[00:28:18]And that's exactly the same thing in the in the in the Middle East. The problem is that Israel behave doesn't behave properly. Occupies territories, take the Golan, take the Palestinian territory, take uh Lebanon. Uh all these territories are illegally occupied.

[00:28:39]Why would you have an agreement with a neighbor you know doesn't want to behave properly?

[00:28:48]You are binding yourself with someone who may uh uh uh turn against you in in the future and you have no means to to to react. So this is this absolutely uh nonsense. The first thing that the Americans should do, you know, the problem is that during the cold war, Israel was this kind of western stronghold in a a very let's say type of hostile Middle East that was uh um at in the early in the 70s 80s Syria was related to the Soviet Union. Uh Egypt to a certain extent as well and and Libya, Algeria, I mean the whole Mediterranean was more or less in in extremely allied, let's put it that way, with the Soviet Union. and you had a a standing presence of uh of Soviet warships in the Mediterranean, in Libya, Algeria, in Syria and all that. I mean, the base of Tartus and all that are the remnants of this this Soviet presence at the time.

[00:30:12]Meaning that Israel had a strategic position there because it was kind of advanced post of the West in the Middle East.

[00:30:23]after the cold war and that's what the Americans have never managed to understand or didn't want to understand and probably also because they're under influence after the cold war with the change of the regimes I'm not talking about what happened in the 2010 2011 2012 thing like this I'm talking about what happened in the late 80s and 90s is almost everywhere.

[00:30:53]Uh even even in Syria the change from Hafes Assad to Bashar al-Assad uh the change from Sadat to Mubarak the change I mean almost everywhere you had a change that and and the the Middle East and the Mediterranean Sea at large I mean the southern part became more let's say friendly to the west and uh and therefore Israel has lost his its uh strategic uh uh situation if you want and and and and that's the the the the problem. The Americans have still considered Israel as their main ally but in fact they could have also good allied in in uh in in I mean they have good allies in in Egypt, Jordan and all that.

[00:31:43]So they could manage to have that. I mean Israel is no longer that necessary to to the US. In fact, um the and and the US has never managed to use that situation in order to harmonize the Middle East. They use this antagonism that you had between Israel and its friend in order. This is a divide at impera, you know, divide and and and to to um >> divide and uh imper mean in Latin that means to rule.

[00:32:17]>> Divide and rule. Divide and rule.

[00:32:19]Exactly. Thank you. Um, and that's what the Americans have tried to do, but I don't think that's the model that could work in the Middle East. Uh, div, you don't need to divide people. They're already divided enough. In fact, and we see that because the Arab countries have always had very difficulties to unite, even against Israel, by the way. So you don't need to divide them more >> because the British Empire did that before. They don't need >> Oh yes yes yes yes I know I know but uh but in fact if you if you see what happened in the first part of the 20th century I mean during the 20th century at large you could see that the Arabs have never managed to unite their force uh or only on very limited occasion and for very limited uh result but they are they are very they are very divided I mean this this re is a problem of of the culture of the religion uh of the political systems of I mean you have many explanation also the economic situation which may vary um strongly from one country to another. So there are many factors that can explain this inability of Arab countries to unite and even even with the GCC you see they're not even united. Uh you see the UAE has is just making going apart and and and you see that the reaction to the war in Iran is also very diverse. So the this divi division has always been a problem of the Arab. It's their weakness as well by the way.

[00:34:09]Um but that's a reality. So you don't need to impose Israel, you didn't need to divide people. Uh the by by supporting this kind of illegal behavior of Israel, in fact, they did exactly the opposite. They created some kind of unity against Israel. Israel Israel is probably the only factor that may unite um the uh the Arab countries. But again, what make this um Israel uniting the the the Arab countries is not because Israel does exist. It's because it doesn't behave properly.

[00:34:54]That's the reason. Would Israel behaving properly? Would Israel treat the Palestinians properly? Would Israel have applied the uh resolution 181 of 197 47 uh uh that gave the opportunity to create a second. I mean had Israel complied with all these uh this international law, there would be probably no problem. all these wars that happened would probably not exist. All of that and if you study well the because when you listen to Israel each time you have something against a Jew or against Israel this is this come out of nowhere. The 7th of October comes out of nowhere. There was nothing before that. The the the history start of the 7th of October. If you if you have an event that starts always there, the reality is is different. The reality is that the 7th of October happened before you had uh 50 more than 50 years uh almost 80 years of mistreatment of prisoners, the use of hostages. You know we everybody say well but the Hamas took 100 people as hostage. Well okay or not okay depending of you look at but what is about the 1,500 hostages that were taken by Israel. Nobody talks about them.

[00:36:39]But that where uh there are there are thousands of prisoners in Israel, but there were 1,500 uh um I mean I'm talking about what happened in October 2023. There were 1500 hostages, children, women, elderlys and all that taken as hostage to to put pressure on certain families or certain individuals and all that. That's by the way this is the rationale behind the 7th of October.

[00:37:10]So but if you discard this part of history you always have the the impression that Israel is cursed because everything happened. The poor guys didn't do anything and they have all the the problems of the world on their head. No, it is not that. They they created every single problem and and that's by misbehaving by not respecting the rules by writing new rules that supersede the international law and that was even acknowledged officially that the u that Israel is not subject to the international law because it's a chosen people or whatever. It's not possible. This is not the way the world can function. Therefore, this idea of reviving the Abraham Accord, Abra must not be the starting point of something. That must be the end point of something.

[00:38:10]First, you should have Israel coming back to its I would say it's not even border. They have Israel has no borders, not no official border. But let's say um Israel should come back to the so the so-called green line which is the ceasefire line of 1949.

[00:38:32]This is the tolerated borders should and the only only officially tolerated border. There is no other border accepted for Israel. So they should come back to that first of all. Once they do that then you will see that people will have a lot of goodwill. Th this is again we are always trying to start to solve the problem from the end. You have to to to to solve the problem from the beginning. You have to address the root causes. uh we have discussed that many times when it uh about Ukraine and the position of the Russians they always say well we have to h to treat the root causes of the problem and that's true for every single conflict it's not just for Ukraine it's also the the the case for Israel treat the root causes and probably we have to dig back uh to 194748 uh to find those root causes but there are the root cause that and then the Abraacords will be a solution and that's the problem with the US they always want to go faster than than the the the music you know and and it's not the way to go and but again we are in in always with the same situation with especially with Donald Trump he wants to have quick results and we are in conflict that are so protracted that quick results are impossible. This is just the vision of a teenager. Well, you just have to do this and just No, no, no. It's more it has to go deeper than this. It has to go and and that requires also from especially Israel to that Israel rethink its position in the Middle East. And when I say post posture, I would say the posture they have in the Middle East.

[00:40:38]What do they want to achieve? Do they want to be at war for the eternity?

[00:40:43]Uh you know all this all all these question have not been asked because they they think that by terrorizing others they will they will prevail by terrorizing others. But there will be an end to that and it's a very small country.

[00:41:07]Carl, shifting the gear a little bit to what has happened in Ukraine. We've seen Russia responding to Ukrainian attack, Ukrainian drone attack on civilians in Russia and Russia responded they used Rashnik missiles and what you've mentioned Donald Trump. I think the problem is still the same when it comes to Ukraine because no serious negotiations, no serious talks between the two parties. Europeans are not willing to talk that much. The United States and the change we had in the United States, we thought that Donald Trump would change that. As you mentioned, Donald Trump is not a serious negotiator. That's why the war is somehow in some ways the war is escalating. If we see what is happening with the case of drones, I would say if these drone attacks continue, we're going to see a lot of, you know, hard or devastating responses from Russia. How what is your understanding? What is your assessment of the war between Russia and Ukraine?

[00:42:19]Well, before addressing uh Russian's response, uh we should probably have a closer look at what the Ukrainians did.

[00:42:28]I mean I don't want to go into the detail of the the attack on stereobilk this dometry but the thing is that we have seen a recent weeks or months even uh in in Eastern Europe this idea kind of an escalation somehow at least in the rhetoric uh all these attacks the drone attacks that incidentally were identified through the airspace of Estonia, Latvia, Estonia, uh but also attempt from Ukraine to use the Polish and Lithuanian territory to fly their drones in order to bypass the uh air this the Russian air defense and thus reaching St. Petersburg and the northern area of of of Russia and therefore also by by the way using the Finnish airspace and interestingly enough you you had no real reaction from uh the the European countries on that. I mean they blamed on the Russians obviously and even when the uh Ukrainians were using the obviously using the airspace of European or NATO countries even um the Europeans blamed on Russia because well this is this they started the war but the fact that you regardless of how Russia started the war whether or not it was provoked or justified or whatever.

[00:44:13]The fact that European countries provide weapon, provide training, provide the logistics and eventually provide the airspace to attack Russia make them aggressors.

[00:44:31]I can say we can say I mean legally speaking Germany, France, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonian and Finland may be considered as uh according to international law. I'm referring to resolution 3314 of uh December 19 74 that defines what is an aggression what is an aggressor based on that on this definition all the countries I mentioned can be considered as aggressor that means that theoretically Russia could retaliate on these countries and it's very interesting because This happened just weeks after or days after we had exactly the same situation in the Middle East.

[00:45:29]And you may remember that just in early March as Iran launched their response against the aggression, they obviously targeted the air the US bases in GCC countries.

[00:45:46]And Europeans considered that as an attack against the countries themselves, while the Iranians said, well, no, we we we would we could do that, but we haven't done that. We have attacked those bases that were used to attack us which are US bases mainly. But those countries who accepted the use of these bases and their airspace to attack us might also be attacked because they are aggressors.

[00:46:17]And that was a very interesting warning for the Europeans. But just days after that, you had exactly the same situation that developed with all these drones using or the Ukrainian drones using. And I again I'm not in the mind of Zalinski or his staff but my feeling my impression is that Ukrainians have understood this situation and they tried to drag the the Europeans into a confrontation with Russia. They would they try to put the European countries in a situation where Russian can respond to the attacks on their on these countries and therefore uh start a larger war. I think that's that's what the Ukrainians are trying to do. And we have incidentally this is very similar of the situation we had between Israel and the and Iran.

[00:47:26]Iran has always managed to drag as many European cu Western western countries especially the US but they tried also to have others involved in the conflict because they understand that they are weak too weak to confront Iran and therefore they need to launch a a larger war and let the others do the work they cannot do and we have exactly the same situation in Ukraine.

[00:47:56]And this was uh in fact this I that was my first impression when I saw the description of the attack on Sarobilisk.

[00:48:07]Uh I I I really felt that this was I mean and again Stoilsk is not an isolated case because you had also some attacks on on the suburbs of of Moscow and things like that. And my feeling was because there is no operational value of these attacks. You know that this is I mean you you can destroy your flat in in Moscow. This doesn't change your situation in Ukraine. You're not defending your country like this. You're just trying to provoke the an evolution or development of the situation, but you are not affecting the defense of your of your country.

[00:48:50]Therefore, this all these attacks amount and Sarabilk is a culminating point in that. Sarah in my view amounts to a provocation in order to have to to have kind of an escalation on the um uh not just in Ukraine but also probably an escalation that would drag other European countries into the into the conflict. So we we see and and you know this is not a mystery. I mean Zalinski and people around him come from the same have the same culture as those in in Israel. Netanyahu and they come from the same region. This the same culture. This is way to address problem. They provoke but then when they see that they are too weak to address the problem they created they try to expand the problem in order to involve others so that others can solve the problem for them.

[00:50:00]That's that's the situation we have and that's why I think we are entering a very dangerous situation. I mean the Russians uh are extremely reasonable in fact in that respect at least because they they try to respond but still are very careful not to engage into something that would trigger something.

[00:50:28]So they don't want to get into the trap that has been designed by by the Ukrainians. So I I think from that point of view the situation is under control, but it's under control because the Russians behave.

[00:50:45]I'm not sure the Europeans are as wise as the Russians when it comes to such a situation. And that's that's a source of concern because we see that on the European side there is a willingness to engage into the conflict. they they have no uh reason they have no motives I mean objective reasons to engage into the conflict. They are engaged indirectly.

[00:51:12]They are already protagonists of the the conflict. They are already a part of the aggressor as I said before but it's still a quiet uh uh presence in the conflict if you want.

[00:51:32]and and and they of course they don't want to have they they would they would like to go deeper into the country but they don't have the means. That's why when the US withdrew those 5,000 people from Poland that create a lot of concern in Europe because these US soldiers it's not the number which is important but it's the fact that you are US soldiers because that these soldiers become a stake for the conflict for the Europe for the for the US you know this is also the reason of the presence of those u like 50 50,000 US soldiers in Germany or things like that. These 15,000 soldiers are not they cannot make the difference uh operationally.

[00:52:22]They don't have the ability to counter the the Russians or whoever.

[00:52:28]But it's a political presence. That means that if they are involved in a conflict, that would drag almost automatically the US into the conflict.

[00:52:39]And that's the reason why those 5,000 soldiers in Poland are so important because that would be the the pawn that that the Europeans have in order to provoke the involvement of the US in a conflict. That's that's the importance of these 5,000. If they were also just a battalion, that would probably be enough. But 5,000 is a significant number is almost a brigade. And that is the the important thing. And the the problem is that the Europeans would be very keen to engage uh Russians, but they know they don't have the capacities and the capabilities to do it. And for that reason at this stage at least they still need the US. And it's also very interesting to un to understand that because the uh recently the Belgium chief of the general staff uh general Frank Vancina he said that there will be a confrontation with Russia in 2030 and in fact the role of the Ukrainians is only to buy time for the Europeans who prepare.

[00:53:55]So we see that the Europeans and and by the way it's just not just a declaration on of him. It it was also reported in a report of the Belgian parliament. So meaning that we have here a mindset in Europe that expect a war and they are but they know they are not ready so far and that's the reason why they want to prepare for this conflict and in order to be able to engage the Russians and this mindset that is directed towards war and not towards any kind of solution of the of the conflict. They don't want to have a solution of the conflict. They want to escalate the conflict.

[00:54:45]And and recently, by the way, uh Kayak Kalas, the min foreign minister with quotation mark of the European Union, uh said that they had not prepared for any kind of negotiation because there is no point. They have nothing to discuss with the Russians. So we don't but they prepare for war. They they they have no more reason to fight the Russians by the way. I mean they they would have more reason to talk to the Russians than to make war to the Russians.

[00:55:20]In fact if you analyze that properly but that's not the way they chose they they have chosen. they want to go into a confrontation and that's for that reason all you see today with those provocation on both sides uh I mean on on the Ukrainian side especially because I think the Russians try to react in a way that is strong enough to show that they they cannot um let things go. So they they need to have a kind of a a deterrent response if I can say that way but they don't want to escalate the conflict while the others the Europeans would like to have an escalation but because that would lead to a situation where they could confront Russia and defeat Russia. So the the perspective is is very different here. Uh and and we are in this situation. So we are probably closer to a a very crisis with Russia than than we we were uh probably one year ago or even six months ago. And the more we see that the situation because if you look at the situation on the ground, it's it's extremely dire for for Ukrainians and and the more time goes, the more the situation is worsening for the Ukrainians.

[00:56:52]Even if you don't see major advances and if you don't see on the map uh uh huge advances in fact in in lot of cases concern and others there are not major advances but there are slight the problem is not that the problem is that the it's not the territory again the problem is not the territory the problem is that the Ukrainian force become depleted they become destroyed and and this situation will lead to a point where the the Russians will have kind of a open road to Adessa or somewhere else.

[00:57:32]And that will be a situation where you might expect a most impredictable reaction from the Ukrainian and from the Europeans because the more the situation becomes desperate, the more you have these provocations coming from Europe and this willingness to engage. It's fascinating to see that we are, it seems that we are closer to a commitment of the Europeans today as we were four years ago. The Europeans were just helping Ukrainians and they were protected by the narrative. Russia is losing and okay, so they were they were happy with the narrative. The problem is that today the narrative is not sufficient enough. It's it's it's not enough. the the the the narrative brings nothing. We we know that it's not true. Therefore, you need to escalate not just verbally, but also physically, materially, militarily, politically, and so on and so forth. And that means that the more the Russians have success on the battlefield, the more risk we have to be involved in something bigger. I'm not saying a World War II because it's probably not that.

[00:58:51]But let's say something bigger.

[00:58:53]>> Yeah.

[00:58:55]Disappoint. Yeah. Thank Thank you, Carl, for being with us today. Great pleasure as always.

[00:59:03]>> Thank you very much for inviting me.

[00:59:05]Thank you.