Senate Republicans Are Finally Sick of Trump’s Insanity (w/ Mike Murphy) | Bulwark Podcast

Added: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]You know, there's rumors he gave Taiwan away for a soybean deal, which I think he's capable of.

[00:00:05]>> It's so funny. I It's like literally the cliche like he's selling us out for a bunch of beans.

[00:00:16]Hello and welcome to the Bull Work Podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller.

[00:00:19]Delighted to welcome back to the show veteran political strategist. His campaigns include McCain, Romney, Schwarzenegger, and Jeb. He's the co-host of Hacks on Tap, co-director of the Center for the Political Future at USC. He also runs the American EV Jobs Alliance. We're in California. So, I'm bringing in Mike Murphy. What's up, Murf? Hey. Hey. Good to be here, Tim. At last night's live show, we brought out a bunch of, you know, lib content creators and commentators. Your John Favros, your Jane Coast, your Van Leens, your Brian Tyler Cohens.

[00:00:50]>> It's like a swarm here in LA. You can't avoid them.

[00:00:53]>> They're everywhere, honestly. Um, you know, people need kind of like some raid uh to keep him away. But uh I subjected them to a never Trumper trivia uh which had like deep cuts, questions about Mitt Romney, who did Dick Cheney shoot, you know, all that kind of material and you would have you would have dominated.

[00:01:12]They were it was an embarrassing performance by them last night.

[00:01:14]>> Yeah, we need to start up a school to properly educate the youngans here.

[00:01:18]>> We do. We do. Um all right, we've got much to get to. Um, I want to uh part of the reason I wanted to have you we're here in California. There's a lot of California politics. So, uh, we'll get to that. Uh, but first, I we have some good news. So, I'd like to start with some good news, modest good news, you know, but we take it where we can get it.

[00:01:36]>> We're seeing some Republican Hill push back over the thug fund and over a couple of different things. Um, and the reconciliation bill has been derailed.

[00:01:45]Everybody from, you know, the retiring Tom Tillis uh over to Tommy Tuberville.

[00:01:52]uh uh people they aren't thrilled. Todd Blanch went over to the Senate to try to win people over to try to bribe them saying, "Hey, even some of you senators might be able to get some money from this fund." Um and it doesn't seem like it's taking and uh that's that's meaningful, I think. What What about you?

[00:02:08]>> No, I agree. I mean, it it is kind of an interesting mixture. On one hand, this this bill, hey, let let's have a cap assault poliola fund, uh, is so odious and horrible that even the, uh, Gumby like flexibility of the modern Republican elected federal official, it's like more bending than even they can do. But Trump's also got what I call the Rotary Revolt going on, which is the Senate is a combination of Rotary Club and nursing home. and they're they're you know they're they're their own thing and they like Cornin and what they liked even more was having some hope they can hang on to majority which by rights and by the nature of the states that are up this year they should be able to but this Democratic kill Trump wave which is now a national Democrats and independents and even some Republicans do punish Trump wave is threatening the Senate and so the one they felt pretty good about Texas, Trump pops up and endorses the biggest loser in the history of Republican party, this corrupt Paxton guy, killing their friend Cornin. So there there's just good old institutional/personal rage going on. And they're looking for ways to punish him in this odious uh Poliola thing. And the blimp hanger, too, that's wobbling. Uh and and then he's got the revenge caucus which are people he screwed with who lost primaries or could have lost primaries and you know obviously Cassidy in Louisiana got Tillis. Uh and then you've got Susan Collins who's trying to figure out the tango to survive. So all of a sudden his grip in the Senate is a lot weaker and they're acting up. God bless him. A little late but uh I'll take it.

[00:03:55]>> Yeah. Um you know it's like a nursing room cafeteria vibe. You know, I always say life is all high school cafeteria and nursing room cafeteria is not that different from high school cafeteria.

[00:04:05]So, I understood from my mimi and um that's what you got happening here. Like they're annoyed. Yep. You know, >> he shot blinky. You know, we're pissed.

[00:04:14]>> You can't sit with us. Um there is a little bit of that right now post Cornin. And I do think it's funny like the retribution campaign >> is we don't want to overstate all this, but like it is backfiring somewhat, right?

[00:04:28]like Trump's like they were all bragging his staff talking about don't mess with Trump you know he's the greatest political winner ever and yeah it's true Bill Cassidy lost and they managed to squeak out a you know not overwhelming victory against Thomas Massie he got 45% in Kentucky and so it's yeah that was true and and Cornin you know they pulled the rug out from under him >> but like to what end >> well yeah there's also you know there's there's been kind of a courage ray has hit him because filing deadlines are passing quickly, right?

[00:05:00]>> So, like you take and he's one of my favorites and I'm a donor. Brian Fatrick uh in the Philly suburbs who's a great member of Congress. He >> I don't know about great but we can we can agree to disagree.

[00:05:11]>> We're going to grade that on a passable member of Congress >> due to the current realities. I I hear you. But anyway, so Fitzpatrick, you know, Pennsylvania primary is over. So they have more maneuvering room maneuvering room to go screw with Trump.

[00:05:27]So I it the the the sands are shifting.

[00:05:30]And the other thing is you asked >> on that one Fitzpatrick worth noting Trump went after his wife who's a Fox News reporter uh the other day and was doing his sexist, you know, I'm just going to really [ __ ] talk the woman reporter and the gaggle thing. And so again to the nursing room cafeteria thing. I mean, he's younger, but there is like a little bit of that like he's he's not like he's mismanaging people that he needs with these narrow majorities, >> right? And if you in an election year, you ask the senators, what's the president's job? It's to help us get reelected and hold the majority. And Trump is doing the opposite. I mean, this Cornin thing really was, you know, nutty old man shoots and basically gives the Democrats a good shot at what could be the tipping point race for control of the Senate. and they're just flabbergasted and infuriated by that. But, you know, you get into business with a crazy guy. The other thing about Trump, you know, I was reading today on the wire somewhere that um this how you can tell I'm a Jurassic consultant. Better check the wire, you know. I But I was I was looking at the wire there.

[00:06:31]>> You got the wire.

[00:06:32]>> I got the ticker here.

[00:06:34]Um it's funny cuz I'm a nerd. I built my first computer with a soldering iron with a kit Bill Gates sold me. So, but anyway, not to go with skew on that, the uh there's all this Trump about all this talk about Trump's birthday. You know, he's going to turn 80. He's already 80.

[00:06:51]The birthday is the last day of that year. You know, like you're a one-year-old means you're you've been one for a year. He's been 80 for a year.

[00:07:00]We're going into 81 now, the beginning of 81. And the crazy old man stuff is really out there and and becoming a thing. The last element to this kind of this um you know sort of swirling uh number of incentives that are starting to move away from him you know in addition to uh his own behavior and the and the c and the cafeteria vibes and in addition to the filing deadlines passing is the approval rating. Uh you know Sarah has has coined the Bush line. I I hate it because it's a little gross and it's mean to the Bushes but okay whatever it is what it is. Trump Bush left at 32%. And it's it's one of those things like eventually you hit a line where the number starts get low starts to get so low >> that the incentives for these Republicans start to change a little bit like it's not going to happen overnight, but where they also have gone from this thing where it's like I can't buck him.

[00:07:52]I can't buck him because it's too, you know, the base is with him too much. All of a sudden, you know, if you look at him at 34, you look at Massie only getting 55 against him, you start to think it's a it's it goes from like, oh, I'm go running against, you know, Bash or Assad to I'm um I can maybe get some distance from this and not worried that I'm going to get taken out back.

[00:08:13]>> Yeah. No, no, you start calculating, you know, the staff comes in. Hey boss, you know, we're we're in re-election here and next week Trump's going to be down at the omnidome, you know, doing a cage fighting tractor pole thing dedicated to, you know, him, you know, and the the senators will go from, well, you got to get me there when he arrives. I want the picture. Now it's like, I think I'm going to have a dental emergency that night or maybe go hit a suburban PTA uh unannounced and show up in care because >> or kind of like how Trump said about his own son's wedding yesterday at a press confer asked if he's going to be attending Don Jr.'s second wedding. He's like, "Oo, you know, we got this thing in Iran going on and I I don't know. I haven't pressed my suit."

[00:08:54]>> The thought bubble was won't last. Not worth it. you know, but yeah, so it it look they they smell the trouble coming.

[00:09:04]It's not hard. They've been looking at lousy polls, even people in safe seats for a year that have just gotten worse and Trump's gotten more erratic. So, they're just kind of buckling down for heavy weather and and trying to figure out how to survive. And hanging out with him is not as good of a survival strategy. You know, Whit is great poster. Uh I think a lot of people ask it now. I believe he was the first, apologies if I get this wrong, but would ask people on the ID question on a poll or you know you're a Republican, self-reported, and then he'd have a follow-up. Are you more of a Trump Republican or more of a party Republican? And that number moves. When Trump is screwing up, he goes under 50 on the number of Republicans who say they're Trump Republican. When he's doing well, it it'll push up close to 70. And after he lost to Biden, it was down, I think, in the uh the 40s. So, you know, there the the the the glue is stretchy there. And we're we're heading the other way on that scale. And I'm sure I haven't seen one lately in a in a key Senate state, but I'm sure it's declining. One last factor as part of all this I want to I want to mention.

[00:10:12]There's going to be a good deal of talk about Democratic dysfunction at the end of this podcast. Um so, uh no no questions about that. Uh there's certainly uh let's say uh some leadership issues uh on the Democratic side uh which we'll get into. That said, >> you just have to say it.

[00:10:32]>> The DHS shutdown fight worked. Like the second shutdown fight that the Democrats spurred and the the notion that we're going to separate out ICE and CBP from the rest of the funding bill. Um there was a lot of criticism out about that.

[00:10:49]on the left, people criticized it. It wasn't aggressive enough or, you know, they folded too quickly. You know, all the all there's all the, you know, nattering nighobs on the left complaining about everything Schumer and Jeff do.

[00:11:02]>> And guess what?

[00:11:04]>> It worked.

[00:11:06]It's going to work.

[00:11:07]>> Yeah. The only reason they have this leverage right now to block the funding for the for the ballroom and you know for this slush fund. The only reason they have leverage is because Trump needs something from them which is funding for ICE and CBP.

[00:11:20]>> They finally found out that when there's a painfest in Washington ultimately it goes to the incumbent president's party because they're perceived as being in charge. So the pain does it takes a zigzaggy route but it'll get there. They just, you know, the idea of federal employees missing a paycheck was so horrifying to them because the party is kind of a creature of public employee unions. They just couldn't get there.

[00:11:44]But they finally did. And you're totally right. It worked. And so they're learning that the president, that's the other thing about when you said before about his numbers going down. There's there's kind of a Velcro effect. When you start getting down to the 40%, let alone 30s in approval. then everything's your fault because you know people are already sold that you're a screw-up. Twothirds of the country thinks you're not good at your job then hey you know we had five days of thunderstorms that damn Trump you know you it just becomes easier for all the bad [ __ ] to stick to you and that's where he is now. So they can do stuff like that and and it is going to resonate as long as they keep some kind of offensive message. This is what they're not good at. you know, you know this, you're a communicator and you've you've you had a career in the communication side of politics. They just they overthink they still are incredibly attuned the leadership of the party to their interest groups, you know, they just they're they're not good at pounding the nail proverbly. Maybe they're learning and they don't have to be good to win. You know, they they can suck and still be Trump because the election is not a two-way election. It's a punish the guy who screwed up the economy election.

[00:12:58]>> Yeah. and Trump's continues to help them. So, just um two items on the weaponization fund. Here he is this morning. Um I gave up a lot of money in allowing the anti-weaponization fund to go forward. I could have settled my case, the illegal release of the tax returns and the breaking of Mara Lago for an absolute fortune. Instead, I'm helping others who were badly abused by the Biden administration. So, he's not backing down at all. And then there's the the stock trade story which came out. My colleague Joe Perticone, shout out to him, you know, for doing the math on this. The total value of Trump's transactions in the first three months of this year, 750 million, is higher than the value of all trades by all 535 members of the House and Senate combined uh for the last few years. And like that is the scale of this. And so, you know, I mean, on the one hand, there's just like the corruption outrage on the merits. On the other hand, he's handing these guys the bat to hit him with.

[00:13:51]>> Yeah. No, no, it is it's incredibly gross this the stock trading thing. It just shows that the one thing the founding fathers, you know, well, foreign invasion kings, you know, we're getting in front of everything. We're designed a system. They presumed honor and shame and now we have this circus freak with no honor and no shame uh running wild. You know, the funny thing about Trump and money is until he started using the presidency as a grifting and stealing tool for the family, which is, you know, unprecedented. Uh, I I long for the days of Don Nixon and the Nixon burger being a scandal. Um, he would have made he would have been wealthier had he taken the inheritance because he made his money the oldfashioned way. He inherited it from Fred, his dad. And if he put it into an index fund and had nothing to do with it, he would have been richer. You know, he bungled his casino companies.

[00:14:45]It's one business failure after another.

[00:14:48]Just some luck in real estate appreciation. But until he became a federal pirate, um he he would have done better with an index fund and him having nothing to do with it. So I'd love to see the trades in terms of how they work out. My guess is, you know, they they are not a droid. In fact, he seems like a serial trader, which is a good way to lose money in the market. But to your point, it's massively corrupt, unprecedented.

[00:15:15]Uh though I'm I'm hoping for the future we have a reformation, not a repeat in terms of you set a new low ethical scandal uh standard and we're going to have more people imitating him in politics.

[00:15:28]>> Yeah, man. We have a Nixon's younger brother and Spiel Agnu reference already 15 minutes in. We're really putting people in the grave. Um the yeah and I do think in the specifics of the Trump trades I I you know some of them it is kind of funny like one of the ones I laughed at is it seemed like he was trying to in invest in some AI company but that was from Japan but he accidentally invested in a business that is one of those uh sushi restaurant chains where the sushi goes around on a boat. Um so that one made me laugh but uh he also some of the ones are just blatantly corrupt like you know they're investing in Intel before announcing the Intel dealt etc. Yeah.

[00:16:05]>> Um, >> and he's trying to give himself in this tax deal all kinds of get out of jail free cards for past behavior, you know, making it impossible to audit them and everything. I mean, it it is Al Capone would say, "Oh, too gross. Come on, pull it back a little. This is embarrassing."

[00:16:22]We're going to go back a little further than the Nixon era for this next story.

[00:16:25]And good. I I I hope you you almost It's one of those things where you never have to hand it to the Trump administration, but you almost have to hand it to them.

[00:16:33]and and and maybe this will inspire some creativity on the left in the future. Uh when you look at the ways in which they're they're doing some of this [ __ ] uh with the arch, you see the story administration officials cited a 1924 report by a federal commission charged with designing the Arlington Memorial Bridge. The report called for building a pair of 166 foot tall columns surrounded by statues. And like they who whoever I don't know if this is AI or if they have like one autistic guy in the bowels of the White House or whatever that is doing this [ __ ] but you know you know obviously again it's another one of those things that it's that it's corrupt but it's it's corrupt creativity. Amanda called it yesterday authoritarian entrepreneurship and there is a little bit of that happening.

[00:17:18]>> Yeah. I'm sure they they brought in some, you know, awkward genius uh from the the basement and said, "Find me justifications."

[00:17:27]So, somebody probably wondered why they busted their ass at, you know, Notre Dame law or whatever. Spent a year looking cuz they know the boss wants to build crazy [ __ ] So, find the crazy [ __ ] justification.

[00:17:40]So, yeah, it's creative. I I hope these people look in the mirror once in a while and say, "Wow, I'm using my legal intellect in the service of a madman to put a scar and a blimp hanger on the on the White House grounds." There are lots of weight loss trends out there.

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[00:19:19]Where are you at on Democrat wins in 2029 and what to do with the ballroom and the arch if they get built by then?

[00:19:25]Or let's or even if they're half built, you know what? How do you think about that?

[00:19:28]>> Oh, I I'm I'm Mr. Bulldozer. If I were if I were running a candidate in the Democratic primaries, part of my shtick would be, you know, and donate to the campaign 50 bucks. We're going to hold a drawing. I'm going to pick a hundred people. Day after my inauguration, we're going to walk over there with golden sledgehammers and begin to take that blight of gross corruption off the sacred grounds of the White House to people's house. That thing's got to go.

[00:19:56]I don't care. Yeah. Yeah. No. No. I I' I'd be I'd make it a thing. It was like Pat Buchanan had a great old stump closer in in in the the primaries 92 and 95 in his speech. I I was at Iowa event and this kind of big outdoor shed and the thunder was so loud from the crowd.

[00:20:15]I started to worry that the thing the roof was coming down like a couple of bolts fell and the big line was uh first he went after the Chinese. I'll tell that Chinese president Mr. You know Pi Ping that if he doesn't stop the forced abortion of a thousand babies a day in China, he has sold his last pair of cheap chopsticks in the shopping malls of America. And then I will put my hand on the Bible of King James, take the sacred oath of office at on inauguration day if you honor me with this office.

[00:20:45]And at that point as president of United States, I will turn to William Jefferson Clinton and say you sir are under arrest. you know, place would explode.

[00:20:55]Pat missed a great career in pro wrestling.

[00:20:58]>> But he had he was ahead on the lock her up. This is a >> No, he was ahead on all that stuff. The other great line was I saw him in New Hampshire. Um, gun control, Boulder Dash. I I'm against controlling any gun.

[00:21:11]You do not need a trailer hitch to move.

[00:21:14]Uh, so but the point being, I would have a line like that on getting rid of this monstrosity. just use the same exact line about arresting Trump. I don't know. Maybe are you listening John Oaf Westmore?

[00:21:28]>> There you go, John Gavin.

[00:21:30]>> Absolutely. But no, that that thing has got to go. I would sell sledgehammers on the campaign.

[00:21:35]>> Yeah, >> that that's interesting. I I guess I should have predicted that you would go that route, but I don't know. Sometimes you can be a squish. You know, at heart you're a little bit of a squish, Murphy.

[00:21:45]And so >> I am a right-wing nut, my friend. You You have no idea that. No, I I'd be hard. That thing is a symbol and it's got Now, if they really have a half billion dollar underground bowling alley and tanning bed factory and whatever the hell else Trump, you know, padded the budget with, you can keep the basement, but the building's got to go. And the Kennedy School Center thing, too. You had to chip that off on live TV.

[00:22:09]>> Of course, you chip that off. Yeah. I don't know. Part of me on the ballroom, you just can't name it.

[00:22:14]>> I I you you just gave a really compelling pitch and I'm kind of vacasillating back and forth. Maybe I was projecting since I'm the inner squish. Part of me is just like I think you just name it the Liz Cheney and George Floyd memorial ballroom and like you know put their faces on there and or you know whoever's going to annoy him the most. Um >> bulldo I'm like clemen bury me standing up facing Germany. I I have absolutely no flex on the board. I I I do think that, you know, going back and and re-watching some Pat Buchanan speeches uh might do some of the Democrats some good. Uh going ahead to 2028.

[00:22:51]>> I mean, you know, in the Republican party, we're brought up with one rule when it's a confusing situation. Grab the sharpest object and attack.

[00:22:59]>> Yeah. Right.

[00:22:59]>> They call the shrink, clutch the pearls, hold a focus group, bring in the interest groups, decide the staff isn't DEI enough, and flip everybody around. I mean, they're that's why they're so easy to beat. Every time we get in the corner in the old days, we'd get drag them into a culture war and they just scamper right into the mouse trap. Speaking of committees and um waffling and being concerned, um uh you've you've transitioned us nicely into the DNC autopsy um which was I guess released yesterday kind of. Um it was essentially released as like if you know for anybody who's worked on a big project with multiple people you know you have a Google doc that you've started uh and then maybe you have a couple of editors in there or collaborators and they're like writing comments and like that and they just kind of released the document like that like they hadn't even written a conclusion yet. Um, but uh Ken Martin had been so bullied by uh people into like what really happened with this thing and he he lied about what happened and then waffled and then tried to say, "Well, we shouldn't put we're not going to put it out because it's hurting us."

[00:24:05]And then, you know, the truth is that they put this thing out and it looked like it was put together by like either a seventh grader who had never worked on a campaign or an 86y old whose last campaign was, you know, the 88 Dukakus race.

[00:24:20]>> Yeah. Look, the Dems are so hless the autopsy now needs an autopsy.

[00:24:25]>> I mean, it was such a perfect example.

[00:24:28]Now, how these things really work, and you remember the Republican one at the beginning, >> I was one of the authors that was making the comments and the the notes. I know, >> you know, the thing had two purposes.

[00:24:39]One, try to have a fact-based idea of the weaknesses for the political folks to chew over and spark a debate. And second, throw something out to the finance crowd that we're now a bunch of idiots here and we recognize our shortcomings, keep giving us money. And you know, these guys seem to be like, well, let's just throw a lot of [ __ ] on the wall and maybe magic will appear.

[00:25:00]And and I I put a lot of it not only on Martin, but the way the DNC election works, they they had opportunities to go find somebody like I think Rahm Emanuel would have been a terrific DNC chair because they they they'd all be carrying sharp sticks and heading in one direction. Instead, it was a club of state party chairman. And in when you're doing a big statewide campaign, you you're kind of you're hoping you have a decent state chairman, not an idiot. and that that decent state chairman hope.

[00:25:30]You're lucky if a third of the time it comes true. Often it's like the model railroad club. It just happens to be politics and they're fighting over who got the head table and whether or not my friend's banquet got to hold the volunteer of the year dinner and all this horseshit that's actually a distraction. So it's an illusion that they're all these cigar chomping pros, you know. And I've seen part the Michigan State Party used to be Patton's Third Army. Now, now you put a tent over it and call it a circus, you could charge admission. You know, Florida's nothing like what it used to be. So, the constituency on the on both sides, but with the White House, you can order them around. On the Democrat side in the wilderness, they elect one of their own chuckleheads who's best at giving out rhinestone donkeys to, you know, 80-year-old committee women. And so they they they you get somebody who has a political job but limited political skills outside the micro politics of of Democrat inside. We have to have a left-handed people caucus at least 40%, you know, all the crazy [ __ ] they do. So it's no surprise that they've got this train wreck internally and there's no discipline to it. I I think obviously it's one of those like not funny haha funny sad situations but like the funny part about it is the discourse around the DNC like you said all the cigar chomping or you know to update it that's all all you know these minations happening behind the scenes with the corporate elite that own the party etc. And it's like the theory of the case that you were seeing online or one of the things that was out there about why the autopsy didn't get released was that you know it revealed that Kla Harris's position on Gaza uh really harmed her and like this and there was an Axio story about this where people said that they they they blocked the release because you know the powers that be don't want you to know that it was her position on Gaza that that cost her the campaign.

[00:27:22]>> A great way to have everybody know the secret. Band in Boston don't read it.

[00:27:26]>> Yeah. and then it comes out and it's like Gaza isn't even mentioned in the thing. Biden's age isn't mentioned in it. Like all of the obvious things aren't mentioned. And and so I what is a better encapsulation of like all the discourse around the DNC is that everybody on the internet, you know, thinks that they're scheming to hurt their candidate of choice at like when the reality is that they're eating the crayons. And like that this was true.

[00:27:50]This has been true for like 10 years now. Yeah. It's one of my favorite rules of politics that every side has a conspiracy. You know, it's like when Trump sat down with Romney after the election and Romney is writing crazy in the gravy with the fork listening him go on about m you know how it works. They stole New Hampshire because they brought up the hordes from Massachusetts. You know, labor has this big army of 7,000 gerillas they can deploy anywhere. And you know, the Republicans all paranoid about that. And then over on the labor side, they're like, "Oh, the Koch brothers, you know, we got eight drunks here. We don't have anybody for doortodoor. It's all a myth." But they've got the secret republic in our Everybody thinks these places are massively competent with ruthless armies and most of the time they're just stumbling along. In the state party world, >> the DNC doesn't really matter that much.

[00:28:42]And it matters somewhat on the fundraising side. And like that's where Ken Martin is really failing. And so, you know, th those guys over there at the committee are circling the wagons today. And I feel kind of bad for the press flunkies that are calling all my friends in the media and just trying to spin them nonsense. So, it's kind of I got >> refrigerator magnets. We're going to We got them. They're coming.

[00:29:04]>> I was like, I just remember one of the Biden uh guys calling me. I remember distinctly being at heart at the Atlanta airport after that first debate and having one of the guys call me and being like, "You're being a little harsh on Twitter." And I was like, "You hang up the phone right now. I've been one of you." Okay, I know, you know, I've I've spun diarrhea uh into a into a chocolate cake before and it's not going to work with me. But um they they were all doing that yesterday at the DNC and part of me is like I they should just have a clean break, right? Like just move on, right?

[00:29:32]find some bring somebody in that can raise money and can go on TV and talk about how Donald Trump is a thief and call it good, right?

[00:29:39]>> Yeah. No, they they need some gorillas.

[00:29:41]The problem is there aren't many left in that party because the internal incentives, you know, the other thing, and this is a delicate topic, but the DEI stuff is so strong internally. I I know really good Democratic consultants who've been out there and most of them are telling me, "Hey, I'm 58 white male.

[00:29:59]I'm done." you know, they told me to shut the [ __ ] up in every meeting. So, this is my last cycle. Um, because it's just it's a different world now. I mean, the DRIP chairman was bragging about they they don't have enough firms where they they pick them based on their gene code, not their win loss record. And, you know, it's admirable to have aspirations like that. I I don't want to sound like Cotton Mather, but you know what? We're in the politics business about [ __ ] winning. And that doesn't seem to be top of the list internally there. And frankly, over the Republican side, it's all corruption if you sucked up to Trump enough. So, you know, I'm not saying there's a great example there. I I I know more self-hating Republican consultants. I'll bet you do, too. You're like, I got a mortgage, so I'm going to be a fascist for 10 years.

[00:30:44]>> They don't call me anymore because I make them feel too bad. Actually, I had a lot of those for a while, but now, uh, now I make them feel >> My list is dwindling, I'll tell you.

[00:30:52]>> I make them I make them feel too guilty about their summer vacation when they call me. So, uh, I don't get the the phone isn't ringing as much anymore, but um, here there's an interesting thing happening actually on the Democratic side now that you mentioned this. It's happening a little bit underneath the surface. Um, but >> it's it's it's strange. It's like the establishment and and I'm saying this like not really in an ideological sense, but just like the the people that are that run the committees that are in Washington, the kind of regular, you know, Democratic functionaries are really still kind of caught up in a lot of this the woke stuff that you're talking about. And like you're seeing these two factions on different sides. you have kind of the Platner populist crowd and then you have this kind of um uh you know they're calling themselves like majority dems or the bench. It's like the Ter Rico campaign is is is on there. There's they have a bunch of House candidates. You can you can search the bench um for their candidates and they they they're a little bit more ideologically diverse but they tend to be more in the middle and you know and they're both like running these primaries. Like Michigan is a good example of this, right? It's like Mallalerie McMorro is kind of the bench candidate. Abdul Al say is a little bit more of the platner style candidate and then Haley Stevens is is you know the the establishment candidate and it's like the establishment candidates are the ones that are still kind of doing the identity politics stuff you know it's it isn't you're seeing a little bit of a change I guess from the from internally where where there is like a group of lefties that want to win very badly and then there's kind of some fighting mods that like want to win badly that are changing the culture a little bit. It's just happening. So, it's just not happening at the DNC, you know what I mean? And it wasn't happening at >> Well, they'll be the last to know, particularly the DRIP because they reflect a Democratic caucus that, you know, goes back to the 70s and because it's been reduced to some extent. It's going to grow now. Um it it it's got a lot of people kind of frozen in time from very safe districts, but yeah. No, no, the the splinters are starting. It's generational, too. you know, when I was a a active political consultant because I really don't do races anymore. I dabble once in a while in independent expenditure or of course referendum campaigns, all that. But I was very careful about hiring anybody out of DC cuz you would just get NRCC conventional wisdom. I mean, there are great people there, but I I'd always want to find a sharp kid out of a state capital where there's a real fight. um ju just cuz often they they didn't have kind of the beltway mentality of which faction I belong to and which firm do I want to wind up at. And I I think both parties have plenty of that now. In fact, it's worse. So, yeah. Yeah, it um the primaries do short, you know, sort stuff out like Michigan will be a good example. We see who actually wins because he's Abdul is I know him. He's capable and I think Mallalerie is capable. I think Haley is not that capable and the the dynamics of the race really want her out and let those two opposites decide the question with the primary voters. We'll see what happens.

[00:33:58]>> Agree with that.

[00:33:58]>> And Doug got out, which I'm sad about, too. I I like that.

[00:34:01]>> Independent run for governor. Yeah.

[00:34:03]Yeah, I do I do feel obligated to just um do the uh like there's good DEI and there's bad DEI and tepid defense of good DVI right now which is we just had the uh you know that picture of the Trump administration and the in the bilat with China where there are like 24 white dudes around a table and Mar I guess unless you're counting Marco you know it's like it's like well we got our gay here with Besset down at the end but besides that I know you know it's like wow Um, >> well, what I liked is none of the Americans were pros in Asia who could speak Chinese. You used to be had a plane load full of them. I think Trump had three guys locked in the basement nobody ever got to talk to.

[00:34:42]>> Yeah, you did have multiple uh reality TV stars and weekend talk show hosts though, so that's good. Um, I want to do >> green screen room is where you really get the geopolitical geniuses of today.

[00:34:52]The new meticks are there putting on the makeup and the uh the hair gel.

[00:34:56]>> That's definitely a merit-based system uh they're working on over there. Um the uh two other things in winter terms I guess we just because we mentioned Michigan. What is just give me your Murphy handicapping of the Senate right now? Like what what's your sense of the of the state of play? What what states are you watching?

[00:35:11]>> It it it is in play and I think one thing people miss and then I'll I'll do a few races quickly. You know, the House is very binary. When you lose the House, you're screwed. The minority has no power. You're you know, free haircuts and hang around. I mean, you you can make speeches, but you have no power. In the Senate, of course, minority has power. So, people are kind of obsessed at making the Senate and the House look good. Could the Democrats win the Senate? The answer is maybe because it's a huge wave election. But if the Senate goes from four to two Republican advantage, that is still a massive earthquake power-wise because it'll be hard for the Republican leadership to control it anymore. um you know, we'll see who loses and who doesn't, but you're still going to have Ran Paul who goes to his own drummer, uh and is honest about that. You got Marcowski and you have the ashes of Trump with people thinking about, all right, that's the old song. I'm going to pick up some new new riffs here. So, they barely can control it. They've had votes they've need advanced to break the tie with four. So, if it goes down to two or one, it is a whole new world. Now, can they how do they do it? Well, I think they're going to do well in the Michigan.

[00:36:23]>> They'll get judges through and I and that it would still be meaningful though for them to be up one just to judges.

[00:36:31]Yeah.

[00:36:32]>> You can be in the minority and be quite powerful and they're on the cusp of doing that. So, to actually win the thing or get it tied, Alaska Republican state, but Dan Sullivan, who knows better, is one of these in trouble. Um he's probably six or seven down. I saw a poll about a month ago.

[00:36:50]>> You forget he's in the Senate kind of until until >> and so has Alaska because I don't think he's very visible when he's there. Maybe partially out of shame because he's not an idiot. Uh so that that's a loose end.

[00:37:01]Now you can argue it's Alaska and when it comes down to it, the party brand is powerful there and they're going to spend a fortune, but that thing is definitely in play. Um I think Texas is now in play, which it I don't think would have been of Cornin really in play. So that that is a big earthquake to the map. And then you then you got the somewhat, you know, easier ones like Ohio where I think Brown will probably have his comeback who's a old kind of union manufacturing jobs kind of Democrat which is perfect for this year.

[00:37:35]Michigan I think is going to tilt to the D's though if Abdul wins the nomination it'll be more complicated. Though he's an underrated candidate. I know him.

[00:37:43]He's basically a high school quarterback from Dearbornne with a complicated ballot name and some pretty lefty positions, but he he he he's got some skills. Um, of course, Collins, you know, the thing about Platner is how will the second look go? I mean, Mills getting out was not good for him. He needed to go beat somebody. Now it's all going to be, well, wait a minute. What about the Nazi tattoo? It's some iheart ashwitz. What does it say? You know, I mean, it's it's not a subtle Nazi tattoo. kind of is. I kind It kind of is. You You knew it was a Nazi tattoo when you saw it. The toteen cuff.

[00:38:19]>> Um >> it's a skull and it sound like it was a swastika.

[00:38:23]>> Not Well, the the thing is the skull department were the SS guys who thought the swastika was a little too soft and squishy. So if you were at a concentration camp and you looked at the uniform, you didn't see the double concentration camp anyway. Anyway, okay.

[00:38:40]>> Point. Yeah, you're flacking. Um, >> I'm not flacking. I just I just I'm saying that reality. I did not I would not have looked out of that. I would have thought I'm a badass drunk, you know, whatever partying guy and I want to get the coolest skull. I think, >> you know, that might be what happened, >> but it's a pretty get get David French going on this. He'll give you an hour and a half on it. Uh so the point is he's going to get a more of a second look now but generically I still think he's the favorite if he can withstand that.

[00:39:11]>> Uh and then >> and Collins is not the Collins of past by the way. I mean she is she's also you know getting up there and it's and she's walking a delicate tightrobe and doesn't have the same ballerina skills that she did two cycles ago.

[00:39:24]>> I agree. And they've seen the magic act.

[00:39:26]They know the rabbit's going to come out of the bag of groceries. Um, so and then uh you know there are a few more around Florida is is >> I think Florida could come to life. I really do. I I really do. Um so I don't count that one out. I was trickier but in the hunt now which is saying something. Of course they got the superstar uh governor uh stuff going on with >> Nebraska uh too. The independent Nebraska I was born close. I'm gonna plug. There's a young kid who is a state senator in Kansas.

[00:40:00]>> Yeah, >> there are two good candidates in Kansas.

[00:40:02]Actually, it's so funny. Like, they're better, just being blunt. Sorry. You get my real opinions on the show. Like, they're better than the Iowa candidates.

[00:40:09]Iowa's an easier state, but the Kansas candidates are better. There's the young guy you're talking about. Then there's a pastor.

[00:40:15]>> Yeah, the pastor is interesting, but he's a pro-life Republican in a Democratic primary. So maybe at first look it's kind of the old you know >> um the miracle candidate but the primary motus mo go Patrick Schmidt the young guys navy um the moderate Tory Dem and he's got a poll showing it like a two-point race with Marshall who kind of like is like Sullivan but kookier >> the dms can you know raise the money which has been an underperforming category and play wide in a wave election. Lightning can strike in one of these seats. So, yeah, if I had a handicap, I say they don't get majority, but they close it to two or one or tied. And it's not impossible to get majority, which is really saying something with the portfolio of seats that are up. I think tied is kind of the median for me. It's so important for them to win for the investigations because there's so much [ __ ] to investigate. What were we talking about yesterday? audit the White House, uh, you know, should be the the motto, uh, for 2027. And, you know, the House can only do so much, right?

[00:41:21]There's just only so many hours of the day. There's only so many committees.

[00:41:24]And >> anyway, uh, to me, the oversight in the appointments or the and and you know, what if what if a Supreme Court justice goes away? What if what if Blanch they try to make Blanch permanent? You know what I mean? Like for all those >> I think the Crim investigations are are so much smarter to run on than impeachment. you know, just say the voters already impeached him. They wiped out his party. But let's look at all the the corruption here. The family has raided the treasury.

[00:41:49]>> One more thing I just want to flag with the midterms. This this scheme did not come to pass. But I just I think it's worth addressing the potential schemes.

[00:41:56]Um this was from Reuters. Uh your your friends at the wire. Uh Trump's election security zar Kurt Olsen sought to ban Dominion voting machines. They're still on this in more than half of the US states uh by asking whether the >> haunted Yeah. He was asking uh the commerce department to declare their components national security risks. The plan to uh exclude the machines got far enough that in September, Commerce Department officials were exploring what grounds could be evoked to execute it.

[00:42:22]Three additional sources said it eventually collapsed, however, because there wasn't any evidence. Um, so you know, this is whatever um, you know, the Watergate burglars uh, style scheme here, but um, you know, I don't know, maybe one of the times they figure something out and I I just What is your kind of alarm about about monkey business in the midterms?

[00:42:41]>> Oh, you know, I I think it's a thing.

[00:42:44]Axelrod and I argue about this on Hacks on Tap a lot because he he's very pearl clutchy about it and then he accuses me of ignoring it. And I'm like, "No, it's out there, but it's like a 3-FFT break wall against a 20ft wall of water.

[00:42:57]There's just limits to how much they can get away with. Are they going to try to do Yes. Yeah. I mean, the biggest thing, and he's on this, and this one I don't disagree, is they're they're doing a lot better at raising money, you know. Now, of course, they use extortion, but the Dems need to get their financing in order.

[00:43:14]>> You just mentioned the extortion. I don't think there's it's interesting there's not more reporting on this like because and for me, this is all smoke.

[00:43:20]I'm not an investigative reporter, but the number of anecdotes I hear about things like people calling up Brian Ballard's lobbying firm or one of these lobbying firms and saying, "Hey, you know, we could I'd like to hire you to help lobby the administration." And in addition to the 50 grand a month or whatever it is for the firm, it's like for me to take you on as a client, you got to give Magapac over here a million bucks. Like that is happening right now.

[00:43:43]>> No, no. I mean, the thing is when you have a reputation for corruption and thuggery, as the Trump administration does, it's pretty easy to go out raising money without any threatening because people just assume, you know, like, oh god, these guys are I'm going to have a regulatory case. It's all political.

[00:44:01]And, you know, the the administration has tried to purge all the old Mandarin kind of public service types out wherever they can. So, they know they got some 30-year-old political appointee who was a deputy advance knucklehead on the Alabama campaign who's now deciding, you know, who they turn the unlimited legal resources of the federal government loose on. So, people are paying to play or paying to survive. So, just the knowledge that they're thugs raises money by itself. So, yeah. Yeah.

[00:44:32]I but the Dems ought to on a grassroots basis because of the wave and low dollar low cost of transaction web- based fundraising. They ought to be able to do better and they they just need to like get on that. They don't have to match the Republican number. My old joke is what hurts more dropping one piano on your head from 100 feet or two pianos.

[00:44:53]But they got to get to one piano and they're not there yet.

[00:44:56]>> All right, deep breath. We got to do California now.

[00:44:59]>> Yeah. I don't understand why my Democratic friends and listeners, so people get mad at me when I bring this up, like why they're not more apoplelectic about what's happening.

[00:45:06]California is not going well. I we I landed in San Diego for the live show. I walked out the door of the hotel across the street in downtown San Diego. There was a marquee that was like, "Opening the doors again soon. Socially distance.

[00:45:20]Mask up. Stay safe." You know, I went to sit at a juice bar. They do still have good fruit and juice here in California.

[00:45:27]A nice woman walked up to me, recognized me, said, "Hey, introduce me to a New Orleans real estate agent. It's too expensive for me to live here now." Like people, it's too expensive to live here.

[00:45:36]The state is it's they can't build the [ __ ] train. They Texas is building more green energy plants than California is. Texas is >> No, it takes three years to open an electric vehicle fast charging station here.

[00:45:48]>> It's crazy. And it's not going well. And and and we're in an election year. and and the establishment of the California Democrats are putting up the same mayor here in LA that has been that has done a disastrous job rebuilding from the fires and the and the yahoos they have leading the governor's race. It's Biden's worst cabinet member and you know the the corniest guy on the 2020 debate stage like who who who nobody really is excited about. That is it. There's no reform.

[00:46:17]>> Yeah. You think the biggest most powerful economic engine of America could actually Well, disclosure, I'm from Matt Maym, who of course is not doing particularly well >> uh is simply because common sense and Silicon Valley guys who promise money and never write the check is hard campaign formula.

[00:46:34]>> Just before you give the pitch on this, can I just offer I think I want to just at least do one other thing. Um because I'm obviously I'm from Mayan, too, but um uh just it's not just a couple former Republican guys. This I was just reading this morning. I was going down Twitter.

[00:46:47]This is on on the lefty side of the Dem Party. Matt Stler wrote this about Basera, who's the who's a front writer.

[00:46:52]Baser is likely to become the California governor. He's arrogant, incompetent, and tolerates criminal behavior by staff. He'll likely be recalled fairly soon. I agree with that. Susan Rice, who I've been on the show multiple times, who's in the main body of the Democratic Party, was retweeting like really negative reviews about this era. So, it's like across the era. And so, why why is everyone going along with this?

[00:47:14]Don't they have a department store mannequin they can run instead? Cuz Bera's, you know, no, nobody trembles at that name. So, here's what happened. First of all, let me do Karen Bass, who's quite unpopular mayor. But like a lot of places that are very blue, the public employee unions do like to elect the people they negotiate their salary deals with, and that that is a function here.

[00:47:39]So at the last minute, a young DSA super lefty Nithia Ramen jumped in against her, a political ally 48 hours before.

[00:47:48]and then Spencer Pratt because everybody's on one ballot with no party label who's kind of the rage against the situation uh candidate and no no solutions but he can explain how to get stabbed in the neck at an underpass which is fairly easy to do here if you you know drive quarter mile any direction um is kind of the novelty candidate although right now he and Ramen are in a tight two-way race around 20 each to try to make the runoff against Bass who stuck at like 39. So, yeah, it's kind of uninspiring. My friend Rick Caruso came very close to running. A lot of people wish he had.

[00:48:29]Um, my fix for it is to do what San Francisco did, which is go to rank choice, get rid of the low turnout primary and widen the voter pool um for all parties and let second and third choice mean something. So frankly, the more right or center people can have a candidate who can compete with the lefty public employee thing. Uh in the governor's race, same thing. Nobody there. California is so hard to govern and we got a lot of budget problems, some of which are driven by the Trump administration that we there just wasn't a candidate. So Swallwell because he lives on MSNBC has some name ID and this is a big state. TV will cost you four to five million a week. So getting famous is very expensive here if you're not already famous. Like Arnold, my old client, you know, we came in as somebody people would listen to because they knew who he was. And Sua imploded, which everybody knew was coming. And then Bisera was kind of the generic, acceptable Latino guy from the South. Uh but nobody knew anything about him. But the public poll showed him in front and then the Sacramento crowd said, "Well, he's not going to change anything. Safe bet. pour money in. And then he had Styer who's going to spend 200 million bucks or probably more who it was like trying to put a cinder block into orbit.

[00:49:47]You know, he's just not the most compelling candidate. And then you had Katie trying to Katie um Porter who would come in third for Senate. Uh trying >> by the way I like better than the other two. And this is not exactly my favorite competition.

[00:50:01]>> May coming from the center and neither of them could really get the money they needed to break through and get famous in California. So we kind of minimum sufficient.

[00:50:12]>> One thing that frustrates me is a lot of Democrats I talk to hear about this race, even especially sophisticated Democrats actually are like, "Well, what are you going to do? We don't want it to be a top two Republican situation." But that's not going to happen.

[00:50:23]>> That was never going to happen. And that's part of what results vote for who you want. People are just like, "Oh, I can't throw away my vote for Katie." I had somebody tell me that in San Diego yesterday, a friend of mine. And then I had somebody tell me that about Mayhem today or yesterday in in LA. And I'm like, vote, it's not over. The race isn't over. I >> this this spectrum of two Republicans, Steve Hilton and and Sheriff Biano, who's the handcuff candidate, um, breaking through became a thing. And the psychology in the Democrat electorate of the half that really pay attention at most was, "Oh my god, oh my god, whoever's in front in the polls, we have to vote for defend." So hapless Bera kind ofum, you know, stumbled in with no money, no message, weak resume, but you know was the he had been known he'd been attorney general and you know he had some name ID and they said we better vote for him to stop Republican. It's a it's stupid herd behavior but it but it happened.

[00:51:24]>> All right. It's frustrating. Do better Democrats in California. It's like you know be a model for the country. Um, yeah. Um, all right. Uh, last thing I'm let you let you put on your, you know, kind of Montreal, uh, get your cane out, do the Montreal thing about EVs, which I like to let you do on the show, particularly after this, particularly after the, um, after the China summit.

[00:51:47]Um, and we talked about this a little bit, I don't know, one of the recent times you were on, uh, the degree, and this relates to the California incompetence, honestly. the the degree to which we're getting our ass beat by China in this >> it's unbelievable. Trump is the Henry Ford of the Chinese auto industry. They should build a the monument to him over there.

[00:52:07]>> I mean, he's declared war on the American one with the stupid tariffs and he here's the bottom line on EVs that don't think about environment or any of that. One is a better car. Take one for a weekend from your dealer, you're thank me and you save two well now probably 2,800 bucks a year on gas. But the real deal is the Chinese have decided to eat the world car industry to de-industrialize the competition. They they have the capacity to make 50 million cars a year. We we would stretch to make 12. Um and so say union in a Chinese auto plant, you're going to be making license plates and you're making 10 bucks an hour. So they export cheap good, we taught them how and the Germans did. Uh cars and they go conquest foreign markets because they have more capacity than they can use. Nobody in the Chinese auto industry makes any money. The government just props everything up and like a thing they they're invading everywhere. So and if you if you're curious if a Chinese car is any good, go to your Lincoln dealer and look at a Nautilus that is made in China. It's the first they sold 75,000 of them the last two years. Uh and Ford would rather not do that, but tariffs and everything and having to have, you know, hedge the future is kind of forced them to. Most Buicks now are made in uh in Korea. So, the problem is EVs are the better product. They're going to win in the end. We are still competitive as are the Europeans, but the Chinese with all their subsidies and their scale are eating the world. And the way to compete is to subsidize American manufacturing, not just Detroit guys, but also the Germans and the Koreans who make great EVs in Georgia. Um, to let them export and let them compete rather. If the Chinese are going to try to buy the market, we we got to defend our guys for a few years of subsidies. And Trump has tried to kill every single thing to help American auto manufacturing compete.

[00:54:04]Every one of them. He he he ought to have a I heart BYD and Gilly tattoo on his forehead. And now we don't know what he agreed to. You know, there's rumors he gave Taiwan away for a soybean deal, which I think he's capable of. And talking about the Chinese, why don't you build one assembly plant here and I'll open the floodgates and there are national security implications and everything. So go to evsforallamea.org.

[00:54:29]Uh learn all about it.

[00:54:31]>> It's so funny. And it's like literally the cliche like he's selling us out for a bunch of beans. Like literally beans >> very cheap. Yeah, it's really something.

[00:54:40]>> I was talking to From about this. It's it's it is the tariffs. It is, you know, the China policy. But also the way in which he's turning off our allies is also helping China take the world. And he was talking about just the Canada example. Canada because you know they want to have a good trading relationship with us was not importing Chinese EVs like up until recently. And uh you know, Trump Trump [ __ ] and talks about making them the 51st state and invading them and and punishing them and making their economy worse. And they're just like, "Well, screw it." Like, fine. We'll do a deal with China. Let the BYD cars come in. The pe the people in Ottawa will like those better than the cars that they're getting anyway. And >> teach the Chinese how to sell in the North American market. Let's let's open a little university called Canada 50,000 cars. I mean, here's my favorite tariff toy. Subaru, one of the smaller manufacturers, but they make a good car, has a big plant in Lafayette, Indiana, and they were sending, I don't remember the number, maybe maybe 25,000 cars a year from the US to Canada. The if you buy a Subaru in Canada, most of them are made in Lafayette, Indiana. The tariffs came down. Wham, that's gone. Now, it's cheaper for Subaru to ship them from Japan to Canada because of Trump's trade war with Canada. So, if you're on the line in Lafayette, Indiana, why are we cutting shifts back? Well, the orange menace is trying to inject anthrax into US auto manufacturing and it's working pretty well. So, yeah, this is a huge thing. I'm happy that the Democrats are going to move Michigan up, it looks like, into the big four presidential states because that may put a little visibility on this. Um uh cuz the the two biggest states for EV capex are Georgia number one, Michigan number two, and South Carolina is a big manufacturing state for automotive. So we're going to have early >> stage with ethanol in with EVs. Sorry, American auto manufacturing.

[00:56:35]>> It's been fun while it lasted.

[00:56:37]>> Don't test drive an EV. You will get hooked. Unless you're towing a horse trailer, then wait for an E-Rev in a year or two.

[00:56:43]>> All right, that's Mike Murphy, man. I always appreciate the time. Thanks so much for doing this.

[00:56:46]>> Thanks, pals. Good to see you. every time. All right, everybody else. We'll be back here Monday with Bill Crystal.

[00:56:51]See y'all then. Peace.