Warm, dry weather and a possible ‘super’ El Niño: Factors in this year’s wildfire season

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]Returning to one of our top stories now, Canada's wildfire season is already off to a dangerous start. Here's a look at the current fire risk across Western Canada. Alberta and Saskatchewan show the highest fire danger. Parts of both provinces already have burning restrictions or full bands in place. So, how bad could wild the wildfire season get this year? For that, we've reached severe weather specialist Kyle Britain in Calgary. Kyle, appreciate you taking the time to break this down for us.

[00:00:30]Thanks for having me, Andrew.

[00:00:31]>> So, evacuation orders are already in place in Woodland County due to an outofcrol wildfire. I is this too early in the season for this to be happening?

[00:00:41]>> Well, actually in Alberta, it is wildfire season. May does tend to be the peak of fire season in the province of Alberta. And the reason for that is that as soon as the winter snow pack melts away, there's a ton of vegetation on the forest floor that's really it's dead from last season. and it dries out quickly as soon as it turns warm, dry, and windy. And then uh it can easily spread up into the trees. The other thing that's going on in Western Canada this time of the year is that the coniferous forests, those boreal forests, uh there's very little moisture in the needles inside those trees. So, it can easily carry a wildfire if the fire gets up into the upper canopy of the forest. So, uh this is not totally unusual for uh for Alberta, especially given uh that it's been very warm and dry the last couple of weeks. And after three severe wildfire years in Canada, what are you expecting from this year's wildfire season?

[00:01:31]>> Well, one of the things that we're watching for is the potential for another active season in Western Canada.

[00:01:36]And the reason for that is that uh we could be seeing warm and dry conditions persisting across Western Canada. And we're expecting uh perhaps slightly cooler than average conditions across eastern sections of the country. But of course, at any point in the season, if you have a stretch of warm, dry, and windy weather, you could see increased fire danger and uh wildfire activity.

[00:01:56]And there's a number of reasons for that, why Western Canada in particular could be uh seeing a little bit more active of a fire season. One of those is that of course right now uh it's already quite warm and dry. It has been for several weeks and even months in parts of southern BC. And so if that trend continues into the summer months, we would see uh you know perhaps a more active season in the west.

[00:02:16]>> And then the eastern half of the country, as you were saying, has seen a cooler spring so far. So do you think that'll lead to a cooler summer? And does that mean less of a wildfire risk?

[00:02:26]>> Well, certainly starting out quite uh nice and quiet in the east right now. Uh given the fact that we did have quite a lot of snow in the lot of the boreal forest. Uh the last little while we've been seeing cooler than average conditions and in many areas wetter than average. So of course a much slower start to the season across the east. And given the pattern that we're expecting to emerge through the summertime with temperatures uh generally a little bit cooler than average expected across Eastern Canada, likely to be a little bit quieter of a season if that pans out. Of course, we do have some uncertainty all the time with these long range especially summer forecasts, but at this point it looks like perhaps a little bit more active in the west, especially if we stay warm and dry, but a little bit less active across the east because of the cooler pattern that we're seeing there. So, let's talk a little bit about the winter conditions because that kind of sets the stage for what we're seeing in Western Canada, right?

[00:03:15]>> Yeah, certainly. So, across uh Western Canada this year, we had uh you you get into southern parts of BC, southern interior, central interior, south coast, they've been warm and dry for a while.

[00:03:25]So, that sets us up for an earlier fire season there. That being said, southern BC tends to have a later fire season.

[00:03:32]July, August tends to pick up at that point. So, even though it's been warm and dry in southern BC, we haven't seen a huge amount of fire activity just yet.

[00:03:40]Uh, but you go east of the Rocky Mountains into the boreal forest region of Canada, and it's been cold, and it's been a little bit wetter than average in some areas. So, of course, that plays a role in uh in what could pan out. The next thing that we're looking at, though, is we're looking at the potential for the development of an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, uh, which basically is the warm phase of an oscillating pattern of ocean surface temperatures and air pressure. And >> so basically what'll happen is that you can have vigorous thunderstorm activity in parts of the Pacific Ocean with a a warm, you know, warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific that can influence the weather thousands of kilometers away. And so while that that is expected to emerge this summer and could play some could play a role in how this summer pans out, we're certainly expecting a little bit more of an impact on next winter's conditions. So again, speaking of winter, how winter can kind of lead into an active season. Uh with El Nino winters, we tend to see warmer and drier than average conditions across much of the country. And if that pans out, then of course we could be starting out uh much more active to start 2027. That is a ways away. But given the fact that we are expected to see this strong El Nino developing this coming winter, that could certainly play a role for next fire season.

[00:04:49]>> Okay. And so just quickly, what are you going to be watching for just in the in the weeks ahead?

[00:04:54]>> Well, we're going to see a little bit of relief in Western Canada the near term, the next week or two. That'll help with the fire situation right now, but as we get into the summer months, uh given how dry it is in parts of central and southern BC, I'd be watching specifically that area uh for an earlier start to fire season if we stay warm and dry there with fire activity perhaps spreading east of the Rockies if it warms up across the rest of Western Canada in the coming months.

[00:05:17]>> Kyle, thank you. That was severe weather specialist Kyle Britain.