Is Israel collapsing a US-Iran deal over Lebanon? | BBC News

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:04]Hello, welcome. I'm Kasha Madiraa. This is the Iran War Today, our daily briefing bringing you up to date with all you need to know on day 91 of the USIsrael war with Iran. So, let's start with some of today's key developments.

[00:00:18]Donald Trump says he's lifted the US blockade on Iranian ships in the straight of Hormuz. Writing on social media, he said that he's convening a meeting in the situation room to make a final decision on a deal with Iran.

[00:00:31]Well, this comes after Iran's top negotiator said that he has no trust in words or guarantees from the US with reports suggesting Iran seeking $12 billion from frozen assets as part of an initial agreement with the US. Israeli and Lebanese representatives meet in DC after a week of heavy Israeli strikes.

[00:00:50]We'll have analysis of those attacks from BBC Verify. And we'll be live in New York as all prices fall on the positive sound that a deal to reopen the straight of formoose could be closed.

[00:01:07]So we start with renewed hopes that an agreement could soon be agreed between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and allow negotiations to begin. Donald Trump posted optimistically on Truth Social in the last few hours, writing that he's currently meeting in the White House situation room to make, as he put it, a final decision. So, let's just run through a few of the key points in his post. He says, "Iran must agree that they will never have a nuclear weapon or bomb. The Hormoo Strait must be immediately open with no tolls." Then he announces that the US blockade of Iranian ships in the straight of Hormuz will be lifted, writing that ships may start the process of heading home. He also writes that Iran's enriched nuclear material buried underground as a result of US strikes on nuclear facilities last year will be unearthed by the US. So let's begin. And we have BBC Persians Saves Adelan who isn't here in London.

[00:02:04]And we're also joined by White House reporter Burn Dusman who joins us from Washington to burn in just a moment. But we're going to start with Sav who is monitoring any Iranian response. They've been rebuffing some of those points.

[00:02:20]Just talk us through it. I think the main issue with President Trump's tweet any dispute or issues that Iran can take with it is the sequencing and this memor memorandum of understanding as we know it. There seems to be one action done and then in reciprocation the other side will take another step. What President Trump seems to suggest and the way he's framed it is that Iran will open this trade of hormones then the US will lift the blockade. Whereas the Trump few whereas the tweet that a few hours before that the head of Iran's negotiating team posted said that we will not take any action unless the US takes the first step. So there's this issue of sequencing here and then Trump's reference to the nuclear program saying that Iran has agreed according to him uh for the US to go inside Iran and unearth the enriched uranium with the help of China and under the supervision of IAE to take it out of the country and be destroyed. I find it very unlikely that Iranians would have agreed to that and I think that might be something we should expect from the Iranians to to respond to because in any case the these talks were supposed to be divided into first a memorandum of understanding just to return to normaly to extend the ceasefire lift the blockade and open the straight of Hormos and then in the next step within 30 or 60 days to talk about the nuclear issue. Now we have to see what the language in that memorandum is about what Trump claims to be the uh unearthing of Iran's enriched uranium.

[00:03:55]Uh so it seems from reports coming from Iranian media from US media that they are putting the final touches to this the text this one-page text apparently in this memorandum of understanding and to see really what the terms are. But there's so much potential in it for disputes and delays that have bogged down this thing that we've been waiting for to the past three days to to be signed off.

[00:04:22]>> It just goes to show the uh the mistrust on both sides. Obviously, while all of this is happening for ordinary Iranians, it's been really difficult. The economy is in a really difficult situation. What have you been hearing from them? There was just a report that came out yesterday. Shockingly, uh, economists inside Iran have predicted that the economy as a result of this war will shrink in this year by 10%. So that would be 5 million more people, which will be driven under the poverty line inside Iran, bringing the total number to about 45% of Iranians who now live under the poverty line as a result of not just this war, but decades of of of sanctions. And that is what Iran is trying to do. Not just lift the US blockade, but just to somehow have these sanctions removed uh and get some of those frozen assets that amount to billions of dollars. Somehow inject that into the economy, get the economy going and and maybe that might ease some of the discontent that exists within Iranians, not just, you know, towards the situation overall, but towards the regime itself. because it's not just the war that has created issues but Iranians have also been traumatized by that bloody crackdown that happened in January just before the war as well. So the opening up of the internet which is the best news that Iranians have seen uh just two days ago after 88 days of digital darkness that itself has kind of relieved uh some of the pressure >> re-energized some of the people no doubt as well Adelan from BBC Persian for the moment thank you so much for the very latest there well we're going to bring in our white house reporter Berna Busman in Washington and Bern the uh president's truth social post came after a week of optimism from US officials.

[00:06:10]Any more news from the White House?

[00:06:13]>> Well, the White House has been very quiet since President Trump posted on Truth Social earlier. And as things stand, we don't know if we'll hear or see President Trump on camera later today. He has several events, all of which were listed as closed. Of course, that could change if there's some decision made. uh his post earlier essentially amounted to him repeating the red lines that he's been saying many times over the last few weeks of Iran have gi up its capacity to build a nuclear weapon and reopening the street of Hormuz without any tolling. Now, there as as we just heard, there seems to be a bit of a disconnect between what President Trump was posting and what we've so far been hearing from the Iranian side. And I think both sides will be waiting to see what President Trump has to say uh ultimately what his final decision is. I think what the US side was hoping for was at the very least that the straight be reopened, which of course has economic considerations that are very important domestically here in the US. And that would give them that 60-day window to at the very least begin those more complex, much more technical negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and on the enriched uranium.

[00:07:22]>> So, is there potentially a chance that the president will not accept this deal to extend the ceasefire?

[00:07:29]>> Well, it it's always very hard to divine what President Trump is thinking or what his decision-m might be on any matter. I think it's certainly possible that he could decide that this deal is not quite there. As recently as the cabinet meeting earlier this week, he was not satisfied with what he had seen from the Iranian proposal. And last evening, Vice President JD Van said that they were still negotiating over the actual wording of the document, particularly about the nuclear-enriched uranium issue. Uh I think the White House has been publicly much more optimistic about the prospect of an agreement, this memorandum of understanding uh and extending the ceasefire. They've sounded much more optimistic than they have over the last few weeks, but at the ultimately this is the President Trump's almost sole decision to make on his own.

[00:08:16]>> Indeed, Brent, as always, thanks so much Bernman there joining us from Washington. Thank you so much. Now, we're going to have much more analysis on just how close peace may be in a few moments time. Our diplomatic correspondent James Landell is going to join us. So, do stay with us for that.

[00:08:30]Now, we have mentioned over the last few days dozens of people have been killed in Lebanon this week. as Israel expands its offensive across the south of the country. Today, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israeli forces had crossed the Latani River, which had previously been seen as the northern boundary of Israel's offensive in Lebanon. He'd earlier announced an expansion of ground operations. Now, this comes as Hezbollah continued to fire drones towards northern Israel. So, let's go live to Jerusalem and speak to our Middle East correspondent, Emirat Nada. Emir, so just talk us through where we are with this ongoing situation.

[00:09:11]>> Well, we've seen since Israel announced this expanded campaign against Hezbollah earlier this week, we've seen clashes along the Latani River. It's a strategic river forms a kind of natural boundary uh 30 kilometers north of the Israel Lebanon border. Earlier in the week, Hezbollah Hezbollah had claimed to repel an advancing attack of Israeli troops around that area. Now, you have the Israeli prime minister saying that the troops have indeed crossed this river and that they're pushing north until sort of uh this announced this sort of expanded campaign. You'd seen Israeli troops based below the river since the ceasefire deal came into effect last month. So, this does signify the expanded ground operations. Israel says it wants to seize more territory which it says is necessary to protect the residents of northern Israel pointing to Hezbollah's increasing use of uh drones some of which have crossed over the border and have struck a number of uh towns in the north of Israel. Then on Wednesday you had the Israeli military ordering all residents all Lebanese people in the south of the country to go north around 40 kilometers north creating scenes of panic. And there is some speculation that the reason one of the reasons why the Israeli military is trying to push it further north and push people out of the south of Lebanon is because the drones that Hezbollah are using are wired. They have a spool on them and that cable doesn't ext extend much more than 30 kilometers and so this is one method by which they can try to limit the damage and the uh the ability for Hezbollah to fly drones into the north of Israel. And Em, given these strikes by Israel into into southern Lebanon, is there any real recognition that there is no longer really a ceasefire to speak of?

[00:11:00]>> Well, around two weeks ago, you had the Lebanese and Israeli delegations agreeing to extend this ceasefire for 45 days. Since then, since the ceasefire came into effect, you've had more than 600 Lebanese people who've been killed in Israeli attacks. That number doesn't distinguish between fighters and civilians, but we know many women, many children, many paramedics and first responders have been killed uh among those um Israeli attacks. Now, today you've got the delegations meeting again, a military delegation at the Pentagon brokered by the United States.

[00:11:31]They're talking about how to progress this ceasefire process. Israel says that its attacks are helping Lebanon in its pursuit of disarming Hezbollah. Whereas the Lebanese president today, Joseph, said that what's needed to make progress is a ceasefire and that um the the sort of complex topic, the complex uh challenge of disarming Hezbollah requires a truce and a sessation of hostilities. There is some speculation that President Trump green lit this expanded Lebanese offensive uh Israeli offensive in Lebanon as a way to put pressure on Iran in in these ongoing talks. Obviously, Hezbollah is an ally of Iran, but then there are also those who think that part of the motivation for Prime Minister Netanyahu uh expanding this conflict in the south of Lebanon is because he's aware that this emerging deal could bring a ceasefire on all fronts in the regional war. And he has vowed to dismantle and disarm destroy Hezbollah and if a ceasefire comes in, it could bind Israel's hands in being able to continue its attacks against Hezbollah.

[00:12:33]>> Okay. Okay, well Emir, as always, thanks so much for talking us through that.

[00:12:35]Emiratada there in Jerusalem. Well, our colleagues at BBC Verify have been analyzing footage and tracking Israeli strikes on Lebanon throughout the week.

[00:12:44]Merlin Thomas has this analysis.

[00:12:48]>> Israel says it's hit Lebanon hundreds of times this week. This is despite a ceasefire. We verified videos of Israeli strikes in densely packed neighborhoods, near a UNESCO protected site, and near a dam. And we can see from the aftermath and the size of the craters like this just how big some of the Israeli munitions are, leaving behind destruction and devastation. Dozens of people have already been killed, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, including women and children.

[00:13:15]The Israeli military has issued several evacuation orders across a large part of the country with the latest on Wednesday saying that people living in southern Lebanon should leave and move north of the Zahani River and said all areas south of the river are considered combat zones. That's about 15% of the entire country from which people are being forced to move elsewhere. These are reported Israeli strikes since the 25th of May according to the Institute for the Study of War which has been tracking them since the start of the conflict.

[00:13:44]The Israeli military said it does not seek to damage civilian infrastructure or harm uninvolved civilians and was targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and fighters.

[00:13:54]It says it also gives advanced warnings.

[00:13:56]Asbullah and Israel have accused each other of breaching the ceasefire, which has been in place since April. The Lebanese health ministry says more than 3,000 people have been killed since Israel started bombing the country at the beginning of March. Well, US shares are in the green on their last day of trading this week. Building on yet another record close on Thursday, Wall Street is apparently shrugging off concerns over rising inflation in the US, driven by the war in the Middle East, and rather focusing instead on hopes of a deal to end the conflict. Oil prices have also fallen on that hope, now well under $100 per barrel. So, let's get the very latest live in New York. We can cross over to our North America business correspondent, Michelle Flurry. So Michelle, it feels like Wall Street and the markets are are a little bit hopeful at the moment.

[00:14:50]>> Look, they're all eyes on what is happening in Washington with Donald Trump and the comments coming out of his administration, whether or not that means a deal has uh been reached and that really is what is driving the markets at the moment. You talk about uh the Dow Jones, we've also got the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all in positive territory at the moment. In fact, the NASDAQ looks like it's going to be up around 8% um for the month if it carries on the way it is right now. In terms of the oil markets, we're also seeing a big drop in prices there. Brent crude is down significantly and I was looking back um tracking the price over the last month and Brent crude is down about 17%.

[00:15:31]And it reflects the optimism on Wall Street or the focus on Wall Street uh on this sort of belief that a deal can be reached uh at some point soon. And that is why uh the markets have traded so positively. That is why oil prices are coming down although they are obviously still substantially higher than they were at the start of the year. And it speaks to a broader picture. geopolitics are not what Wall Street is focusing on.

[00:16:01]They're focusing on in some ways their bread and butter, which is things like what are corporate earnings right now?

[00:16:07]What is the AI boom doing or the potential? What does it have to do with the economy? That's the things they're looking for and that's really uh the story of these markets right now rather than the conflict we're seeing in the Middle East.

[00:16:21]>> Okay, Michelle, as always, thanks so much. Michelle Flurry there from New York. Now, defense leaders and military chiefs around the world are gathering in Singapore this weekend for Asia's largest defense conference, the Shangria dialogue. The global impact of the USIsrael war with Iran is topping the agenda as countries in Asia grapple with the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as what US involvement in the Middle East could mean for the future defense of Taiwan.

[00:16:48]So all eyes will be on the US defense secretary of defense who is due to address the conference on Saturday.

[00:16:55]Ahead of that Pete Hegath found some respite with a bit of a worker out on the deck of a US aircraft carrier docked in Singapore. Well our correspondent Saranjanna Terrari spent the day at the Shangria Dialogue Summit in Singapore and has this assessment of just how Iran is playing into this year's discussions.

[00:17:14]This is Asia's premier defense summit and under normal circumstances, it's an opportunity for regional partners to come together with the likes of the US and Australia and the UK to be able to discuss strategic issues in the region.

[00:17:29]But this year, the war in Iran hangs heavy over the summit. Lots of countries in the region are really suffering from the instability in the Middle East and especially from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They need those oil supplies to not be disrupted anymore and uh for their economies to continue receiving the energy supplies that they need. The other issue is the rising influence of China especially in contested areas like the South China Sea. So all of these uh regional players will be looking to the US for some sense of uh security in that sense. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hexath will address the summit and he is expected to talk about maritime security as well as call for increased defense spending in the region to counter the rising influence of China and other uh issues around the world.

[00:18:28]We've spoken a lot this week about growing hopes of a deal. Almost every day it seemed that an agreement has been within reach, but no announcement has come. So, is a deal actually on the horizon? Let's get a final thought from our diplomatic correspondent, James Landell. So, the big question over to you, James. Is it likely given that we've now got Donald Trump in the situation room and yet we've got uh Iranian state TV saying that no negotiations are taking place on the nuclear issue. They're still miles apart.

[00:19:01]Well, I think they're clearly closer to an agreement they than they have been before simply because both sides have have been nodding towards it. Uh, and both sides need a deal. The Americans are under a huge amount of political pressure in the White House to get reach some kind of resolution here. Uh, equally, as we've heard, the Iranians are under substantial economic pressure.

[00:19:20]So, both sides do want a deal. But the question will be is how are they going to achieve that deal? because both sides will want to be able to claim some kind of victory and therefore the language that has been negotiated now is is opposite to that and that's why it's so important and that's why they're haggling over the final details.

[00:19:42]Remember of course we are just talking here about a framework deal. We're talking about a very basic clear deal that parks and defers a substantial amount of issues. But if it comes off um you know it's it's no mean thing if uh this deal if one emerges actually does what it says on the tin ends the war and allows shipping to pass through the straight of Hormuz unhindered by either side then that is a will be seen by the global community and the world economy as a good thing in itself. The risk is if there's a price to be paid down the line uh with many Western uh policy makers worried about whether or not Iran might come out within a better position than the United States. And I think that's what's concerning people here at the moment.

[00:20:30]>> James, if the nuclear issue is indeed off the table, then arguably all that has been achieved is potentially and loads of caveats here getting the straight of Hormuz open. So, we're just pretty much back to where we started before the US attacked Iran. That's not doing much in terms of Donald Trump saying that he can get a better deal than Barack Obama did.

[00:20:52]>> Yeah, look, I mean, I think we should have distinguish between two issues here. One is, you know, how Donald Trump may or may not see a deal. And secondly uh the impact on the global economy of opening up the straight before moose because if the straight opens you know that that is and yes it goes back to the status quo anti that is still going to be better than where we are now in terms of allowing fuel fertilizers chemicals and everything else to start flowing again hopefully financial markets settling down and over time because it will take time slowly but surely the price of energy perhaps reducing. So that would be no mean thing. But as you say, what happens with the nuclear issue if there's some sort of language there, but if it essentially just parks uh the issue and says we're going to talk about it now, uh there is a real risk that potentially no agreement is reached on that. If you look at uh some analysts are definitely saying already look if you look at the sort of halfway house uh that the Gaza ceasefire is in exactly the same thing could could be applied to nuclear talks going forward which is that talks continue about it but agreement ultimately isn't reached. So, James, just in terms of getting the straight open, we've seen that Iran now knows how to weaponize this incredibly important uh shipping route. They could possibly do it again. If and when further down the line, whether there is a deal or not, they don't like it, they go back on it. We could be back to this situation because they've got precedents.

[00:22:25]>> Yes, they have. I mean, I think the the Iranians would be reluctant to to play that card all the time, but the point is the card they've got now is a real card, and it's a card uh it's a very high card. Uh and so if they can just hint at threatening it now, what what was a what was before this conflict an implicit power, i.e. it was always possible that the Iranians could try and close the strait, uh that power is now explicit.

[00:22:51]The Iranians have managed to close it with military force. they have been um unpre the Americans have not been able to prevent them using military force to close the straight and so essentially the decision remains with the tanker captains with the insurers in London and everybody else about whether or not they're going to take the risk because ultimately uh regardless of what may or may not be agreed in coming hours or days ultimately the decision will be taken by other people about whether they're prepared to the risk to take the risk to steam through the straight or not.

[00:23:23]>> Yeah. always well worth just remembering that there are so many seafarers still stuck in the straight. James, as always, great to get your final thoughts. Our diplomatic correspondent there, James Landell, with his uh final thoughts on what is a obviously still a situation where we don't as yet have a deal. In theory, Donald Trump is considering it.

[00:23:43]He's in a situation room in the White House. We'll keep an eye on that. But as always, whether you're joining us on YouTube, Tik Tok, sounds, radio, or TV, thanks for your company. We're going to be back at the same time tomorrow with the Iran War today.