🔴(LIVE) Emas Naik, Investor Tetap Waspadai Risiko Weekend!

Ajouté : 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]Go.

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[00:11:56]Okay, good afternoon friends on Friday, May 22, 2026, the third week, the third week of May and we have 1 week left to end the month of May. And it seems that today I have checked the economic data, there is only Michigan Consumer Sentiment with inflation expectations. Yes, sorry, but looking back, it seems like the Michigan data has n't been responded to by the market recently. In the past, he often received responses, especially regarding the issue of inflation expectations. Well, but it's okay if friends want to pay attention, please pay attention to the data tonight. Make sure the data is relatively softer, okay? If it's soft, it means we have expectations that the dollar will weaken over the weekend. But if the situation is that EE is actually higher, for example, EE inflation for the next 1 year or 5 years is considered to have increased, right? Well, that's not a good sign for the ee market, especially stocks, or even for ee gold.

[00:12:56]Well, okay. But I won't go into that data guys. If you guys remember, I've always reminded you many times about what I'm saying about the war situation in 2025, right? June 2025, you seem to be really insistent, I'm really laughing. What's up with June 2025? Why is it linked to the Iran war or the conflict in Iran that occurred this year? Which should be different because the situation at the time of EE 2025 only lasted a short time. Meanwhile, it has entered the third week of the month, sorry, or even the fourth month, from February 28th until now to May, that means it has entered the fourth month, approaching the fourth month, that means May 28th has entered the fourth month.

[00:13:41]Well, the situation is a bit questionable, is it possible that we will get an ending to this war or will this war continue? On the one hand, if we examine it further, perhaps Trump once said that the war he was waging was not the longest war because in previous history there were wars that were relatively longer and disrupted the economy. Well, but whatever it is, I don't want to compare it to the wars of the past, the era outside of Trump. I want to compare the closest to 2025 and the situation is still the same. If we look at the patterns, diplomacy is then delayed, then again, ee, military threats, then diplomacy is delayed again, ee, military threats again, and so on like that, right? So I think that if you look at the pattern, it seems like there is a similarity. There are similarities. Well, later we will discuss one of them there. But for my friends, if you want to join in learning, please check the comments in the post. There is a zero to trader volume 2 form that we will be doing on June 2nd. This means there is 2 weeks to register if you want to learn from scratch or maybe just remember the material. The material is from the basics, yes. Maybe friends who are already skilled at trading will get bored. But if for example, ee is interested in ee trying to review it again, yes, the basic understanding is please, yes, we are open, please take advantage of it and you can, yes, maybe we can try to present the link, it can be there, yes, zero to trader volume 2. So friends, you can click the link in the comments, then later try, eh, what is it called, eh, scan the barcode, yes, scan the barcode. Okay, just a moment.

[00:15:39]Well, this is it, Prof. Okay, so it will be from June 2nd to 4th.

[00:15:46]If you are interested, please do so while there is still an opportunity.

[00:15:50]We will meet on June 2nd. Okay, then we come back to the previous situation, why did I connect it with ee June 2025? This is also related to the possibility, yes, or perhaps suspicion. There are suspicions that this may be a repeat of what happened last June. So, in terms of June last year, if you often monitor and dig into the news, actually the incident at that time was a bit strange for me personally. Why is that strange? Because as I remember, the peaks were a bit absurd. It's a bit strange, absurd.

[00:16:30]Why? Because the peak, if I remember correctly, was when Iran retaliated against the attacks by America and Israel and at that time attacked America's military facilities or basecamps in the Middle East. Suddenly, after carrying out the attack, Trump suddenly didn't even arrive for a few hours, maybe just under an hour. Suddenly Trump said that Iran and Israel had reached a peace agreement or more precisely, a ceasefire. And that's what I think is a bit strange, right? Why do people who are at war suddenly respond by suddenly announcing peace or the end? Well, that's what I think is a bit absurd because in the end, that's where we see something unique, that there was no diplomacy in the war, pressure after pressure from customs, and also the response was that the war suddenly stopped.

[00:17:26]Stop the war is not okay that's enough, but the sentence is more like an announcement declaring that both parties are finished, the war is over, or is it. So they will end it and eh the ceasefire until the beginning of last year, right, the beginning of this year, right, on the 28th, ee sorry, in early February, suddenly there was renewed diplomacy, then it turned out that they were almost agreed, suddenly they were attacked again and so on until finally the war continued until this very second. Okay from newb before the canel happened today I saw the morning potential of IHNS.

[00:18:05]Please explain what IHNS is with the clan at 458. Potential bounce or rebound there. Please review it. Okay.

[00:18:14]It is estimated that there will be no FET interest rate adjustment this year, sir. What happened, bro?

[00:18:17]Not going up anymore. Okay. Hey, do you want me to answer first or should I explain first, friends? If you want to explain it directly to the technical staff, that's ok. I will explain the technical aspects very easily and that's it, I won't go into too much detail, including maybe, uh, what about this interest rate going up, this gold price not going up anymore, and so on and so forth. If you just want to be technical, okay, I'll just answer the technical part for now. But if you guys want to tell the story from the plot and this will give you a complete picture of the future, I'll start first. So, if friends in the comments column want to ask questions directly, it's okay if they want to type it, just type it first. The only thing that comes back to me is my habit of conveying the basic fundamentals first, the reasons why, then we get into the technical realm.

[00:19:10]And it's more comfortable, more comfortable because it means I don't what to call it, I don't feel like oh okay, if for example my friends here are just looking for a signal, eh, for me it's okay, right?

[00:19:22]But if it were me, instead of giving signals like that, I would state what the basic assumptions or news are, and then what the main thing will be like later. Even if the movement goes up and down like it was seen this morning, it's actually been the same since yesterday, right?

[00:19:41]So, as long as there is no urgency for the price to move ee volatile, for me it is much more important to convey the story first. Well, it takes cause and effect for why prices move. That's right, yeah. Okay, yeah. So, agreed, right? I'll get into the material first. I'll complete what's needed first. This also includes my debt, which I always explained yesterday about, try looking at June, try looking at June. But the reality is that the majority of traders, both new and experienced, are usually lazy to open their history. In fact, the main key for traders is to learn from history. We don't know whether history will repeat itself or not, but what is clear is that the market will move according to the same rhythm or pattern, and it might repeat itself at any time, and we can use it as a template that might be the same. Well, this is also related to the previous question.

[00:20:35]It is estimated that there will be no interest rate cuts this year, so how can gold rise again or not? This will also answer because what I have described here is the basis for why it might not be repeated? If it happens again, what will it be like? If it doesn't happen again, what will it be like?

[00:20:50]And that's what friends as traders should understand first. Okay. Okay, I'll go straight to the material. Okay. So, here it is.

[00:20:59]If I look at the situation, I won't go into the economic data yet. Next week's economic data will only include GDP data at the end of the month. Uh, then also the PCE data, as usual, is the inflation that we will look at, and there are also some data such as durable goods orders. Okay, that's what you guys need to know. Then I came in here, guys. Okay, this is a timeline, a timeline that I collected from several sources, several websites. So the story of the conflict between America, Iran, or even Israel is actually not a new conflict, especially if we involve Iran and Israel. Well, then after Israel, of course we have America's involvement, although we don't know whether this was done intentionally or whether the one who has it, or what, or maybe Israel, is the plan. That's what people suspect. Well, but let's get back to it, let's try to get in here, okay?

[00:21:58]I'll investigate first. Okay.

[00:22:00]So this story is based on the sequence of events. If you guys pay attention, in 2025, in early May, there was actually a kind of negotiation and that's what we've been discussing since yesterday, right? Negotiations, negotiations, negotiations, and then suddenly what happened was that period, it turned out that it wasn't accompanied by a solution, it wasn't accompanied by a solution or there wasn't an agreement, wait a minute, let me try this, I'll reopen the scribbles, okay?

[00:22:34]Okay. So in this flow, in May, from the beginning to the middle and then until the end of May, it is the diplomatic period, right? Times of diplomacy. Then the negotiations got worse. They've been negotiating, and this is actually a review of the agreement reached during the Biden era.

[00:22:55]Then negotiations took a turn for the worse. Then then ee ee Trump urged Iran to accept ee new deal yeah. This means that it was like that in his era, right? Then Israel quietly prepared the option of a military attack. As we know, suddenly it was over, finished, finished, then uh, there was tension, which indicated an increase in tension, there was an escalation, Israel was immediately on alert, and then America moved military assets to the Middle East.

[00:23:22]This means they sent military troops and also warships, right? Then at that time the price of oil and gold did rise. Well, what's interesting is that the war situation in 2025 didn't cause the price of gold to drop drastically, but it also didn't increase drastically, actually, if we look at the graph later, I'll match it to the graph, okay? The position is almost similar to now, but not as exact as now, you know. So, you can imagine if 2025 doesn't end with the closing of the hormones slat. That's why in several Agurana posts, I posted that if we talk about war, what would the impact of war be like? If the war disrupts oil supplies, it will obviously hamper them and then lead to inflation.

[00:24:08]Rising inflation is not good for gold because it means the Federal Reserve is getting ready to raise interest rates. The cycle of interest rate increases will disturb ee what is it called? excitement for gold is accelerating. Well, but that time in 2025 didn't happen because it didn't get closed. Okay, that's the point.

[00:24:28]Then Trump gave an ultimatum, yes, at the end of May he gave an ultimatum.

[00:24:33]You guys have to make a deal now, okay? And we know that at that time Qatar was the mediator. Then Iran said, "Don't rush it, okay? Don't rush it. Finally, he refused with all efforts what America did as pressure.

[00:24:50]Yes. But the problem is actually at that time, if we realize it was two or three days in a row they had meetings and there was an agreement.

[00:25:00]At least Qatar, America and Iran at that time admitted that they were close to reaching an agreement. Suddenly, yes, the attack happened.

[00:25:10]From here, the diplomatic pattern is similar to what happened on February 28th, friends. A few days before the February 28th attack, it was very similar, very similar to the pattern of mediation that happened in May 2025. Okay, then we move on to June. Suddenly, Israel attacked Iran and at that time launched a very large attack on nuclear facilities owned or suspected to be owned by Iran. Yes, including military access, there were Fordo, Nathans, then Isfahan, then eh Bases suspected to be IRGC hideouts, right? Well, then Trump praised, yes, Trump praised Israel that it was a pretty good attack.

[00:25:52]Okay, I'll shorten it Yes, I'll summarize. The point is, on June 13th, he launched an attack. Then Iran retaliated within the period of June 141, so a few days. Then the US started getting involved from June 19th to 20th. On June 21st, the US immediately attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. Yes, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam.

[00:26:14]Then suddenly he claimed that, uh, what's it called? uh, they had succeeded in pressuring Iran. They felt successful, and it was considered a spectacular military attack. Then he said something about Miga. Miga is making Iran great again. Yes, that means he's actually under suspicion. Wow, maybe his mission is to replace the leaders there, the regime, or something like that. And then what happened? You can imagine the timing of what happened here. So, if Iran had been silent, that would n't have happened, friends. So, after they said they had succeeded in attacking on June 21st, it turned out that on June 22nd there was an additional attack. A retaliatory attack, sorry, a retaliatory attack from Iran on nuclear facilities or... Sorry, America's military facilities in the Middle East. What happened? Well, this is the peak, friends. The peak was on June 23rd, if I'm not mistaken, it was June 23rd, uh, early morning, yes, Iran was at its peak, retaliating against America's attacks. You can imagine that, maybe in Qatar, maybe in other countries in the Middle East, yes, they responded like that. Suddenly, they were beaten, beaten, beaten, eh, suddenly, a few minutes or a few hours, no more than an hour, at that time, it was no more than an hour. Suddenly, Tr announced a ceasefire. A ceasefire, no wind, no rain, this was still in a hot condition. Still in a hot condition, suddenly, pom, he immediately announced a ceasefire, yes. He said that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire and total cheese fire, he said. Yes. Then, uh, this was an official marker of the end of the war story. Then, June 24th happened or was initiated as a ceasefire that was in effect from then until it was finally broken last February. So, what I mean is, for example, if we Look at these sequences, friends, it's clear here, when there was a very strong military action, then coupled with a retaliation from Iran, what happened was not anti-climatic, it's not pleasant if the story of war in a video or in a big movie, ee, that's not fun, it's not fun. So, after the war was retaliated by the enemy, suddenly he himself announced a ceasefire, right? You understand here, right?

[00:28:41]This situation is what's happening now, friends. Threat after threat that if you don't agree, we'll bombard again. Do you agree or not, right? In the end, the time was delayed again, delayed again, until finally there were some clashes. So, I mean, if we examine this story further, people are already thinking about the market, if you look at the last week, why hasn't the stock index dropped significantly? Even though there is still the threat that geopolitical risks could still break out. So, secondly, why hasn't gold fallen like it did on February 28th?

[00:29:15]Why hasn't it fallen after that time, it actually fell in In March, in early March, it dropped to 4099. Why didn't it drop there or even lower, even though we know the conflict is still ongoing, and Iran is stubborn and doesn't, or is considered unwilling to cooperate, to resolve it and hand over its nuclear weapons? Then, what's happening now is that threat after threat continues to occur. And finally, Israel was called, or Benjamin Netanyahu was called by Trump. So, what's the conclusion? Finally, it turns out Trump said, "Benjaminahu is ready to do whatever I want."

[00:29:54]So they were on standby. If, for example, they have to attack, I will be ready to attack for America. That's his reasoning, right?

[00:30:00]But on the other hand, Trump is smart, he's playing games again.

[00:30:06]His mindset is, 'Well, just wait, let's give them a chance,' arguing that Saudi Arabia and, uh, what's it called, the United Arab Emirates, have asked America not to, don't carry out an attack. Well, if you look at the last week, the market has been in a psychological state where they can already guess, they've given up.

[00:30:25]Even if Suppose this really is a military action, then the concept will happen like what will happen on June 22nd. And when it breaks out, look at the aftermath, it won't be long, friends.

[00:30:37]So their hope is that if this turns out to be very difficult diplomacy, then America will bomb Iran again with the intention and goal of destroying uranium, destroying their nuclear facilities, the point is that they will feel happy, it's over, and then suddenly declare a ceasefire. And this will likely be the anticlimax of the war. If, for example, our sequence is to the moon, then the strong suspicion is that June will likely be the end of the war story. That's why right now, they're being pushed for time, don't feel bad, don't rush, okay? Let Iran give time. Then we know coordination is difficult, even though it's difficult, but they're still carrying it out to this very moment. And the latest news I got was only two points.

[00:31:26]Just two points. And those are actually the points that have been difficult since 2025: the nuclear and uranium issues. They asked for the uranium. Okay, just hand over the uranium to America. There's no need to go to another country. But Iran is smart, right?

[00:31:38]Iran doesn't want to surrender to America. He chose Russia. He knows Russia is considered more secure than America and is unlikely to be attacked by America. But, until now, Trump doesn't like having to go to America. So, the question is, if he doesn't go to America, what does this mean? Is it floating? It can't be floating. There will definitely be a solution. Why? Because on the other hand, don't forget that America is being pressured, or what? The focus will shift to problems that we consider more urgent, and that is likely the election issue. The election in America will be in November, right? So, what's going on, is it related to this election, friends? And the current situation is that the Republican Party itself is divided. There are some who say to Trump, "Finish the war." Because with the high oil prices, they are unpopular with the people, so ultimately, their positions or composition in Congress or in the House of Representatives will be reduced for the republic and ultimately they will not get a majority.

[00:32:46]What impact will that have? The impact, if we look at it from here, is actually just a matter of time. Actually, yes. That's why, if you've noticed, in the last two days, Trump said that the RAM will end very quickly, and then oil prices will drop drastically. If oil prices drop drastically, he'll have the freedom to achieve calmer inflation.

[00:33:05]If inflation is calmer, that means he won't be worried at the next FOMC meeting, especially since he's already appointed Kevin Was. Kevin Was will be inaugurated and sworn in tonight. And don't forget, that means we'll get his inaugural speech. Now, this inaugural speech means we're linking it to the first FOMC meeting, which Kevin Was will lead, which will be the FMC in June. Okay, the part is on the 18th, right?

[00:33:30]That means in Indonesia it's June 19th.

[00:33:32]So, what's happening on this date?

[00:33:35]There was a question earlier, like, wow, they said the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Okay, that's what we're holding on to. That's what we're holding on to. And until now, because there's no calm, as I've been saying all day, as long as there's no calm, there's no sedative, the market will worry that interest rates will rise. And that's why gold is having a hard time rising.

[00:33:54]Yes. What, sir, if a rate hike actually happens? Okay, the strong suspicion is that the first of June will be the Fed's first rate hike. Okay, this is a guess. This is a guess, but it doesn't mean it's certain. Okay, let's underline that. And then, the important thing is, we don't know what Kevin Was will say tonight, but I strongly suspect it will be something like a market calmer as an initial step. Because the market is also a bit worried that he will be disturbed or steered by Trump.

[00:34:26]But Trump's statement last week, if I'm not mistaken, he said, "I'll let Kevin Was play. "Please do whatever you want with the interest rates." While he was actually setting up.

[00:34:36]What setting? Setting up how I'm going to end this war with the image that I'm the winner of the war. Yes, you can imagine what happened in 2025, his mindset was that I'm at war, I'm finished, I've won, right? And that's what he'll do. So the conflict will uh uh uh, the peak will be in his hands. So if we look at what will happen, we still have one week to end May and we don't know what the end of May will be like. But it's highly likely that Trump will smell the possibility that Kevin Was will be pressured to raise interest rates. So my assumption is he will try to calm the market.

[00:35:16]How? By prioritizing diplomacy and then supplying news to the public that he's okay, we've reached an agreement, the end of the war will soon come and the war will end and oil will fall. Oil will fall, meaning inflation will be relatively low.

[00:35:33]Inflation concerns are the main topic why the Federal Reserve or Global Central Banks are considered to raise interest rates. We saw BI yesterday raise interest rates, but I won't discuss Indonesia. We're talking about the global situation. The current global situation is: which countries have raised interest rates? It's almost certain that Australia or New Zealand, if I'm not mistaken, have already raised rates some time ago. But we're also wondering whether the Bank of England ( BOE) or the ICB will raise rates or not. For reference, when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, several central banks, including the ICB and the BOE, did so first. So, going back in time, the order should be before the Federal Reserve, and we'll likely get an answer from the BOE first, or the ECB will raise rates first. Well, these two seem most likely to be the ECB, as they also said in June. We don't know what their share will be. Whether it's due to the burden of rising energy prices or even economic growth issues or something else. But what's clear is that the Federal Reserve has homework to do. Their homework is the workforce. Okay, they consider their workforce to be still secure, solid.

[00:36:46]So this probably won't be a problem.

[00:36:48]They're still not burdened.

[00:36:51]Then the problem is the CPI, inflation. That means We're talking about the possibility of high inflation, which means interest rates will be raised. But the problem is that their economic growth is relatively slow. Even though the figures are still above 0%, they're still below 2%.

[00:37:10]Yes. So this is the problem.

[00:37:13]If I raise interest rates, the economy will slow down even further. If the economy slows even further, what's the concern? High inflation, a slowing economy, and automatically, what will happen is a recession or even inflation. That will be the main concern because the labor market is currently secure, according to Auston Goldsby. So, will there be a rate hike on June 18th?

[00:37:38]The answer is very likely to be postponed based on GDP. But I hope I'm wrong. If it turns out that the rate hike is true, that means gold will slip. But let's assume from what Trump has said recently that the war will end and then oil prices will fall. My logic is that he's making things easier, especially for Kevin. So, it's likely that on June 18th, he will... Hold interest rates. So what happens? After holding interest rates, the subsequent meetings will depend on the Jackson Hall Symposium. And when that happens, this is in August, right?

[00:38:17]Jackson Hall is in August, so there's June, July, and August. Then there will be the FMC in September, November, and finally the FMC in December. Now, let's talk about the possibilities. If the events of last June really end in June, and the current war also ends in June, then, as Trump said earlier, he believes this war will end. Iran really wants it. He said badly, eh, does he want peace or does he want it to end? And if that happens, it means he's assuming oil prices will immediately plummet because there's plenty of oil supply on the market. Well, we haven't linked this to OPEC yet. We haven't linked this to any of the other operations. We're just linking it to what Trump said about the war, which ultimately leads to his belief that prices will fall. What's the solution to inflation? The solution to inflation is lowering energy prices, right? How can it be reduced? Like it or not, the war must be stopped.

[00:39:19]Stop the war. He already knows he has to stop the war, but his target isn't over yet. So, he automatically wants the war over, and because he's being pressured by election issues, his position is squeezed, his internal pressure is squeezed, so his image must be built very well. Don't forget that physical oil supplies take time to neutralize. So even if the price of, say, CLS or WTI, as we see on the price list, drops quickly after the war is over.

[00:39:47]Physical oil supplies won't be immediately smooth, my friends, because the key will be slat hormones. If the supply disruption isn't resolved, it will only be a few months before the November election, right? That's why we need time to get to the November election. So, my assumption is that from June to August or even to November will take time. And that feels like enough time, from June to November, for everything to return to normal, for the oil supply to be running smoothly again, so that ultimately the price of physical oil will fall, and fuel prices domestically will be relatively low. If that happens, it means that in the upcoming election, At least he's saved, his image is saved, and then his party still has face, right? Well, this situation means we prioritize the assumption in June, right? Regardless of whether it's true or not, we're just going to see what happens in 2025. So, back to the question, will the FMC meeting on June 18th result in a rate hike?

[00:40:50]The answer is probably not.

[00:40:53]It's likely not. It's likely he 'll hold it first, then we 'll see at the Jackson Hall Symposium.

[00:40:58]If we look at the situation from the FMC Meeting yesterday, they said they agreed that the majority agreed to hold interest rates, but with the caveat that if inflation caused by rising energy prices continues to rise, then they will have no choice but to raise interest rates.

[00:41:18]Well, that's the key. So, in this situation, it's clear that the federal reserves have indicated, okay, I'll raise interest rates, but we'll wait and see what inflation looks like going forward. If inflation continues to rise and the war continues, the South will remain closed, okay, we'll raise it, enough means the situation is being heard by Trump, not being heard, meaning if that's the case, the mission Trump's mission is to end the war. If that's true, then the initial concern is that inflation will rise, possibly stagnating at 3.55 to 3.8.

[00:41:52]If that happens, does he have a reason to raise everything? The answer is no. He'll hold off first. That's why he needs more time until August. He'll see if Trump is given time to end the war, and it ends, meaning the invasion will gradually decline. If that happens, the most important thing will be seen in oil prices. It's over. So, after that, we'll talk about the end-of-year effects and so on. But I think his first mission is to save face, and he'll likely try to end the war so that oil prices fall, which will ultimately lower inflation. With inflation dropping, there's no reason for the central bank to raise everything. That's a good scenario, yes. But the worst scenario is that, beyond all that, if the war continues until July or August, there won't be enough time to neutralize oil prices. And that's what ultimately makes the market confused and worried that if the invasion continues high, the war will continue. So it's likely that interest rates will be ready to rise. And yes, if interest rates rise, gold will fall. Well, the only problem is, we're fortunate to live in an age of advanced technology, friends. Why? The current situation is different from the past. If you know about news that this will happen and then that happens, the result is that they've already accommodated, calculated the market for a decline, a decline, and then when the announcement suddenly raises the price of scuba, would you be surprised? They would n't be surprised because they've anticipated it. So, even if the main issue is raising interest rates, okay, that's what we'll use as a guide for a month from now, at least until June 18th. If it turns out there's no increase on June 18th, then gold will rise first.

[00:43:44]Plus, if the war really ends in June, then there's hope for a drop in oil prices. Once oil prices fall, what we'll see is a slow but sure decline in inflation, as Trang said. But then again, the worst-case scenario is that the war continues. Okay, that's the basics, friends.

[00:44:01]So understand this situation. Later, we'll... We'll try to update it repeatedly every time we live stream. But be sure to watch the fundamentals video because we're always updating you on what's happening in the market conditions. Okay, hopefully you understand. So, we'll move on to the next part. This chart is the US Dollar DXY chart. If you remember, we've seen this repeatedly, but it turns out our homework is still: has the gap closed? Okay, the gap has closed. Confirm it.

[00:44:31]This gap has closed. Okay, it's done.

[00:44:33]Okay, this gap has closed. The only problem is it's not finished yet.

[00:44:38]We don't know if it's going to go up or down, but basically, it's still threatened by a double bottom.

[00:44:43]That's why the possibility is either up or down for now. Okay. In your opinion, has the market priced in a rate hike based on the 2-year yield, and has the DXY also priced in a rate hike? The possibility is.

[00:44:57]The possibility is. If you look at EE, especially, I'm playing it on the 10-year Treasury yield.

[00:45:04]Yes. If the 10-year is already above 4.5 since last week, that means they've priced in. If they've priced in, that means, in simple terms, they've discounted, they've factored that in. So the situation is that they think, "Wow, this seems like the dollar is consistently strong." But structurally, if we look at it, it's not consistently strong.

[00:45:26]We discussed this some time ago. So the context is that it's in this weakening phase. So, from here, it peaked, then it consolidated there. The peak has now dropped again, and it's the same. What's the difference? The pattern is the same, right? The pattern is similar. That's why it's important to examine the structure: there's actually a repetition here. So, regardless of what happens, will it rise? Even if it does rise, where does it seem to rise?

[00:45:53]The rise will be similar to this, right? So, if I take this situation like this.

[00:45:58]Well, this. This is like that. What's the difference with this? If, for example, this is like this, then this is like that. That means, even if there is... Up, yes, this is similar to this: let it rise a little, then later there will be a decline. Well, this is what might happen in the future, friends. So, the situation is actually, is the pricing in finished or has it started?

[00:46:22]The answer is, in the short term, it's already priced in, there's already a pricing in process here. But the problem is, structurally, in general, there's still the possibility of further pressure. So basically, if we look at it, it's probably only a few percent.

[00:46:39]Now, the next problem is that the Fed itself, to date, has not made a more dominant statement regarding the direction of the potential interest rate hike. Well, this goes back to the structure of interest rates. If we relate it to this, let's go back to September, uh, November, and December.

[00:47:02]September, November, November, December, starting from 2024, yes, we start from 2024, then also 2025. Okay, this is back again to 2025, this is interesting, friends.

[00:47:14]The situation is like this, friends, to understand the position, if you remember before September, there was an FOMC meeting. Before September There's also an FOMC meeting in 2025. Okay, what happens in 2024 is a rate hike—oh sorry, the rate cut occurs in September, November, and December of 2024. What happens from January to June of 2025?

[00:47:38]The answer is that the rate is maintained.

[00:47:40]Why? The reason was that Trump was elected, right? Trump was elected.

[00:47:44]Then there were t-shirts about the tariff issue.

[00:47:47]Finally, it was postponed because of concerns that the tariff would cause inflation.

[00:47:50]Did inflation rise? In June, July—oh sorry, June to July of 2025, inflation rose, right? Inflation rose because the tariff was announced. Even though we know that in April there was a delay, then it was implemented again, threatened again, postponed again, the trade war between the US and China, and so on and so forth until it was finally resolved. In August, Powell suddenly announced that inflation was still safe. Then he decided to cut or adjust the interest rate in September. And what happens in September of 2025? What happens is another rate cut. In 2025, it's the same month. September. Another rate cut.

[00:48:29]He cut again in November. People thought it was impossible for a rate cut to happen. Then, in December, another cut happened. So, three more times, right? So, 2024 and 2025 are good examples.

[00:48:42]Many people doubted the rate cut would happen at that time. Suddenly, the rate cut happened. So, if Trump's priority is to lower interest rates, then what he has to do is stop the war. Stopping the war means that oil prices will drop very quickly. If they drop very quickly, inflation will subside. If inflation subsides again, he will cut everything. Well, that doesn't mean we're assuming that here. The story is now starting to enter May, entering June, right? We're left wondering what June will be like.

[00:49:13]I'm very likely hoping this will hold, then this hold, then July, August, August, Jackson H Sosium, then we'll find out in September what will happen. We still have three months to determine whether inflation will fall or not. Because in these years, 2024-2025. The same thing happened. Inflation at that time experienced a rise of 3.0 to 4.0 points. Especially in 2025, during the war, it didn't even reach four. It was only around 3%. Only around 3%. There were concerns that it would suddenly drop again, then drop again, then drop again to 3.3%, then drop again to 3.0, then drop again to 2.7%. Yes, that's what happened, friends, and finally the Fed decided it was still appropriate to lower the skumah. Well, in 2026, we haven't received a cut, and we haven't received a rate hike either. This is still a fairly broad question. Will what happened in 2024 and 2025 still remain open? That's why the majority of FE officials are still keeping the narrative of monetary easing open. They haven't eliminated it completely, as the three dissenting opinions want. Okay. Yes.

[00:50:20]So, back to the situation, if you look at it from here, the pricing is already there, but it's not what it seems? Not that optimistic because they are still Confused. The problem is that this rising inflation isn't due to demand-driven inflation, but rather to rising energy prices triggered by the war. This means that Trump is right, and Powell was right some time ago, that they believe this inflation may be a temporary disruption or noise.

[00:50:50]In this case, if that happens, it's perfectly reasonable for Kevin to hold off on changing interest rates while he gives himself more time. We'll see what the data looks like, and what happens in 2024-2025, June, July, and August, they'll be observing more specific data on inflation and employment data, including growth. Especially considering that they have a tough homework assignment right now. If he raises interest rates, the growth rate will actually slow down.

[00:51:20]So be careful there. So, if June is indeed a rate hold, then you guys should prioritize paying attention to the data from June, July, and August.

[00:51:29]We'll see later whether interest rates will be raised or not in September. What's interesting right now is that some EE banks are still interpreting or predicting that the gold price will end at that level, at the end of 2006, it was still at that level. 5,000 or so. Okay. So, why is Irpan optimistic? No. I'm not optimistic.

[00:51:50]I'm looking at the situation that's occurred over the past three years. Then, if we relate the correlation I mentioned earlier, it's been extensive. Furthermore, it turns out that if we take the thinking of these banks—JP Morgan, Gormansah, Gan Morgan Stanley— their mindset is the same. They think that this war should be over.

[00:52:09]If the war is over, then there will no longer be any disruption to inflation.

[00:52:13]Because if we talk about tariffs, tariff wars, and so on, they consider it obsolete. Because there's no proof that tariffs disrupt inflation. That's the problem.

[00:52:22]So, regarding current inflation, it's officially caused purely by the war. If the war is removed or over, then the factors causing inflation should have subsided. So, thank you, that's a great question. So, uh, is pricing in place?

[00:52:40]Currently, they consider pricing to be in place, but they're not that optimistic because we still see the structure there, which still suggests it's still in a limited or sideways consolidation. Yes. So, that means there probably won't be a sudden surprise increase to Cuma?

[00:52:56]Maybe. But if the key is that it will be more visible, maybe a week before the interest rate decision, then we'll see what the initial trigger is. The initial trigger means next week's PCE rate, then the next two weeks will be non-fol, right? Non-fol is followed by CPI inflation data, then suddenly, uh, the FOMC meeting, uh, June 18th.

[00:53:22]So, if that assumption means Kevin Boss doesn't have enough data to do all the raises. Okay. Well, okay, so if, for example, pricing in, don't forget that later, because it has already priced in, it is assumed that the increase has started, the situation will change if it turns out that the Fed remains on hold with interest rates.

[00:53:42]Yes, this means that there will be a significant decline. What if he really did go up to cukuma?

[00:53:48]Depends. Currently the pricing in is 25 basis points. 25 basis points is likely. If he only estimated 25 basis points, it turns out the result was okay, it turns out the Fed raised 25 basis points. It means appropriate.

[00:54:03]If it is in accordance with this, it means that it is in accordance with their calculations, it is in accordance with their anticipations. But if it suddenly increases by 50 basis points, well, that's likely to be the main, biggest pressure on gold. But be careful, not only will gold fall if he raises the support by 50 basis points, but stocks will also start to fall. So this is the stage that we have to look forward to. Okay. Then if we look at the next movement, it is the USA. The weekly chart is also the same. If we look at it, it's still in the stage, you could say it's sideways, but it's already in a difficult stage to see an increase. However, structurally, it's still stuck below 4.7%, but the PR has already risen above 4.5%. That's what makes the market a bit risky because, for example, if you look at it like this, there's still a possibility of a further increase, especially if there really is an interest rate increase. Okay. Then, if we look at the daily figures for now, I think it tends to be relatively down. Well, back to the cooking.

[00:55:09]So we have hope that ee the assumption is that this weekend gold might close at 4,600 because yesterday the lowest level was 4,570, right?

[00:55:18]This means there are PR 4589, 4570. This means if it breaks through again, it will be hit at 4,600, so maybe that's when profit taking will occur.

[00:55:26]Well, the thing to be careful about is that I don't recommend you do it overnight because we don't know what the results will be at the end of the week. It could be that if Trump changes his mind, as we have seen recently, it will be even more dangerous. So I recommend that whatever happens today, stop trading until the end of the night. Don't extend it any longer, don't overdo it, especially for stocks or even for gold. Okay, I'm going into gold and maybe for oil crot, because it's the weekend, maybe I'll take the bonus to Nasdaq. Okay, this is pretty interesting. Okay, before going into Mas, I'll go straight to Nasdak first. This is the structure in the daily market. If you remember, some time ago I mentioned EMA50, EMA20, this is the proof. So, since the crossover, the EMA20 has not been penetrated at all and the tendency is that it is being held back. When he went down yesterday, he was also held up. Well, but be careful here we see what the structure is. The structure is similar to the potential of a double top, right?

[00:56:28]If this is really a double top, where does the support come from? The support is that these are both lower peaks. So my assumption is that if it turns out that the rise fails or doesn't break through the previous level, it means that a double talk rejection will occur. Well, the position is here, friends, yes. The peak is the first peak of 29780.

[00:56:49]Okay, so friends, be alert for NASDAK, which is 29780. Let's assume 29780, 29800 from this area. If we don't see a breakout in the next day or two, we'll likely see profit-taking or downward pressure. Well, but this is what is called a double top, which means that Murni has to experience a decline below Nelin, right? If the neckline turns out to be in the same zone as the EMA20, then it is very likely that what you have to be wary of is first, the EMA20 is at 28595.

[00:57:25]Okay, so you have to be wary of 28595.

[00:57:31]This is quite good, yes, from 29,780 780 to 28, let's say 28600, that means there is around 1700, yes, 1700, the potential for profit taking or a decline. So, next, even if there is a decline, if it becomes a double top, it has to break through, right? But maybe it's not considered possible.

[00:57:53]If it turns out that his defense goes up again, it means this won't be a double top, friends. What happened? What happens is that it will form a bullish rectangle. Yeah, no? This is the bullish rise of this rectangle. Yeah, no? If it's a rectangle, it means there's a big possibility that it will correct from here and then go up again. Maybe it only goes down a little or it goes straight through. No. If it's a bullish rectangle, that's the position.

[00:58:21]So, what we actually need to pay attention to in the next week is that today is the last day we will see whether 29,700 will be affected or not. Even if it doesn't hit, it's okay, but don't leave it overnight because, eh, if I'm not mistaken, the stock will close earlier today. Then Monday, Monday is Memorial Day, yeah. So it's a long holiday for stocks, huh? So be careful, I might prefer to take profits. Well, but will 28,600 appear in the next week if it turns out the geoprint is still uncertain, it's still hot and so on, yes, this possibility could still happen.

[00:58:55]Well, just as we noted earlier, we don't know whether the base point on the next line will be broken or will rebound. If it rebounds, that means our scanner is buying on weakness, right? Buy on weakness. Then, if we look at the weekly schedule, we still have homework, which, sorry, isn't homework, but it should have been finished, right?

[00:59:12]His mission has been accomplished, he has finished 28,100, rising to 29,000, that's a bonus, but we also have homework that maybe if categorized as homework, this is that he hasn't overbat, he hasn't overboard, friends, so even if he goes down, we consider it profit taking, which is still reasonable, right? Okay. Then, if we look at the H4 chart, the current situation is that we can still buy as long as it has n't fallen below yesterday's low area. If we assume yesterday's low, which one? Yesterday's low was this one, guys. Well, this is it. This is the low, ee sorry, this is it or yesterday's closing, on May 21st it closed at 29450.

[00:59:56]Okay, 29450.

[00:59:59]Well, this is a gap, yes, this gap occurred. This gap happened this morning. So, if we pay attention, this ee is very likely to cover the gap and the gap should have already been closed. Later we will see how much the reduction reaches. My guess is that even if we continue to use the EMA indicator, the most likely target is to reach this target, friends. The maximum is around 29,300.

[01:00:24]Okay, 29300. That's it, just close it. We don't need to trade anymore.

[01:00:29]Wait until Monday, okay? Wait until Monday. There is a big possibility that we will get a better number to make a buy. If not, for example, the geopolitics are still hot, then automatically let it go down even more, right? Well, but this also breaks the possibility of people's stigma about May, May sell in May and go away. It turns out that until now we have n't seen the proof. But that doesn't mean it doesn't apply, folks. Be careful, it just so happens that this year may be the time when the stock index tends to be optimistically higher. Well, that's why I said earlier that it seems like there are signs where the market has ignored military conflicts or Middle East conflicts. So they just think that oh, it seems like this will all end up being agreed upon, because Trump will still be pressured by his own party, the Republican Party, for the possible November election, right? and he also still has a target to cut the rate, he wants the central bank to cut the rate. So it would be useless if he placed Kevin Was but didn't use him for the cut rate, right? But that impression will be removed so that it doesn't give the impression that the market sees the situation as if the central bank is no longer independent. That's what he's trying to get rid of or reduce that image. Okay.

[01:01:44]Structurally, is 4463 in gold already low low, eh, what is the INHS pattern? Oh okay. Inverted head and solder on H4 can still be a reference for intradeck buy. Okay, we'll discuss it with you later, but lastly.

[01:01:57]Okay, I'll get into crude oil first. The situation with crude oil is like this. I took the big structure on my friends' daily charts. And this situation is still a draw, yes. Still remember what we discussed last Monday.

[01:02:11]The situation is still balanced. In the daily chart, we have seen its position still going back and forth between 104 and then to 98 97 yesterday it dropped to 95, now it is back to 98, so actually, if we look at the symmetrical triangle, it is generally, in technical terms, balanced, yes, symmetrical, it can be bullish, break through resistance, it can be baric, break through Sukot, now the problem is what is the trigger, what is the trigger, is the trigger pure. We will just wait for the main trigger to come from geopolitical conflict.

[01:02:49]That's why there's a bias in why the market in the last few weeks tends to experience less volatile movements. You can imagine that the numbers 100 and 105 are considered ordinary numbers, not very powerful numbers. It was a different story on February 28th, when the oil price had reached 119. But after that, there were no more stories, those stories were over.

[01:03:15]We see that it gradually drops its high lower, right? Well, it's the same at the bottom, the longer it goes, the higher it gets, right? That's why it tapers to form a triangle. Well, in this case we don't know which one to go to yet. Will he break top or will he break bottom? The situation is still fit-fity. If we refer to the events that have occurred in the last day or two, then it is highly likely that there is hope for an agreement to be reached. At least our guess is that if war breaks out, it will probably be like this, friends. This is just a temporary assumption. The current assumption is that our friends will get a bomb increase, right? Oh, I see. Whether it's higher or just touching 119. I assume it's higher. But then what will the candlestick look like? The candlestick will probably be like this, my friends, this is my guess. This is my guess, it could be wrong. It could be wrong. Okay.

[01:04:18]Okay. Here's how it is. Well this is a red candle.

[01:04:23]So there is a possibility that the tail could be long.

[01:04:27]Why do you say the candle is long? Why doesn't it go straight through? Okay, because this is a daily chart, it could actually break through a few candles to the top.

[01:04:36]Then suddenly here it was removed or lowered like that. Well, but whatever it is, the point is, if we assume that an agreement will be reached, then what happens is that he was panicking and suddenly turned around, right?

[01:04:50]That was very fast. Moreover, if it is true that the incident that happened on June 24th, the response from Iran was that suddenly that night, oil prices were made to rise, suddenly that night, Trump said the war was over, there was an agreement, blah blah blah blah, oil prices, why did oil prices go down again, so the situation will be similar to that if we look at the structure, if we look at it weekly, ee, the picture is like this, the picture is like this, here. This is what happened, right? If friends remember the same incident, this gap up then he pum pum.

[01:05:28]What period is this? Here it is. What date did this happen? March 6th yeah. March 6th.

[01:05:37]Then this is what happened, well this is June 5th, right? June 5th. But after that we didn't see any more worrying symptoms. Okay, wait a minute, let's try scrolling there. Well, this is it. this happened on this date 2022 Russia-Ukraine time yes it ended there. The next peak is 2022 too, right? Well, in June we'll try to see June 2025, okay? Sorry, 2025. Okay.

[01:06:06]2025 means here.

[01:06:11]Ah, this is it. This is exactly this. This is what happened in June, yeah.

[01:06:16]You can see the spike there. The [ __ ] looks like BP and then he dampens it again, so it goes down, down, down until finally he goes to the bottom.

[01:06:24]So, it is highly suspected that even if an attack occurs, it will be considered the final attack and that it might just be a test here again or maybe even lower.

[01:06:33]After that it will collapse by itself. That's why Trump has been so adamant in the last two days that the war will end soon and oil will plummet. So there is a big suspicion that he will try to make the e-market more relaxed. Well, you can see here, right? The position, if you look at this, is actually the same. So, if it goes up again, it depends on whether Trump still has the courage to go to war or not. Because it is highly suspected that he is also short of money.

[01:07:02]If that happens, it means automatically, don't forget that if he increases interest rates, it means that the debt level will actually get higher and that's not liked. Okay, so basically the trigger for today is we look at the oil price side. Even if you look here, the possibility is that it will tend to go down. But because the daily is like this, you have to be careful if it has touched level 9296, sorry 9295. 92 is from the low level here. Well, this is the area. Okay, on this date this is the low sorry 93 turned out to be 93.80.

[01:07:43]Okay, then in graph 4 it's the same.

[01:07:47]Yesterday we succeeded, from a higher level to a lower level, from a higher level to a lower level. Yesterday, the pullback only reached 102 and then went down again. Well, this turns out to close the gap, right? This closes the gap. This closes the gap just right. That means it's already broken even.

[01:08:03]Well, my assumption is that if we consider this to be 50% or even the full amount, then it is actually finished. There should be a further decline here, or you can sell and wait here for another decline to occur. So, the key is that we will hold on to the indication that diplomacy is still being prioritized and we don't see anything frightening on the war side, okay? So it's very likely that the market will say, "Ah, never mind, maybe there will be a war if there is a war."

[01:08:33]It's like Trump wasting bullets, throwing his anger at Iran while giving a warning, "You don't obey, this is what I'm doing, right?" Roughly speaking, it's like that. But it's finished, there will be no more extensions and it will be declared as a permanent ceasefire or a permanent ceasefire. Okay, let's go into gold, guys. Okay, this is the short structure of the H1 chart, right? Why did we buy yesterday and buy today at the same time, the situation remains the same, guys.

[01:09:02]Actually, the pattern remains the same, the support remains the same, it's just a little higher, right? So, what are our hopes? Our hopes are that this still has a path up to at least 4,600.

[01:09:15]I don't know the exact EE, but my guess is that we will target 4,630, 4,650. Well, just be careful. I'm not too sure this will be strongly bullish for now.

[01:09:28]I'm not too sure that this will be strongly bullish. Even if there is an increase tonight, my first option is an increase. It will be stuck at approximately yesterday's high of 4570, or it will test 4589. It's highly likely to go there. It's highly likely to go there. This is a temporary assumption if we assume the geopolitical situation is still safe. Then there won't be any particularly strange economic data tonight. The market is also relatively euphoric, so we can accept it. A war might occur, but it will be shorter, right?

[01:10:02]So my assumption is, even if this increase occurs, it will most likely be held back first, between there and there. Now, in this zone, there's a possibility that it will be dominated by potential declines.

[01:10:18]We don't know why this decline is so low. What's clear is that if we compare it with next week's economic data, there's the VCI. This means there's likely to be disruption here due to the PCI data. That's assuming the PCI is much stronger, right? That means inflation is rising.

[01:10:34]So, why is the BCI stronger?

[01:10:36]Because yesterday's PPI data reached 6%. So, it's highly likely that the market is currently anticipating, perhaps, their fear of what will happen. PCI is like this, they're afraid of geopolitical issues, right? So they still want to hold back. That's why the increase from yesterday seems to be holding back. Well, on the other hand, I'm not too sure, friends. The situation is like this. If I take this, it's actually similar to the graph in the fourth graph. Okay. My current assumption is this: its position has been like this since it reached its peak a few months ago, before the war.

[01:11:15]Then it crashed to that point. Then it returned to that point and finally crashed to that point. So, if I assume this structure is complete, then it's starting to formulate a new strategy, right? The new strategy is like this. Yes, it's highly suspected to be like this, right? This is what we're hoping for. So, for this issue, it's been clear, yes, I've outlined the reasons for the last two weeks. Because we assume that this is a new wave, a new wave of increases. This means the standard cannot fall below 4,400. Has it been met? For now, it's been met. But is there a possibility of a decrease? Yes. The geopolitical disruption is still there, right? It's still there. So I'm not ruling out the possibility that in the near future we might see 4,200 or 4,300, right? This 4,300, right? There are two possibilities, 4,260 and 4,307, or at most, 4,350 and 4,400. So basically, if I take it as a whole, it's already relatively, eh, or has reduced the burden, so if we look at the structure of the decline, it's similar to what we call a falling wage. The falling wage from here, friends, is like this. So, will there be a decline tonight?

[01:12:39]I hope so. But how big? I don't expect it to fall lower than 4,420.

[01:12:46]So even if there is a decline, my hope is that the tail will be 4,450 or 4,453.

[01:12:51]After that, it suddenly turns around. So, I hope the candle will appear like this, friends. The tail will be like this. If it's a tail like that, then what I'm going to do is... What I do is wait for a reversal candle. This reversal candle appears, right? If there's a tail like that, then what I have to do is use it as a trigger or, uh, executor, I move it down to the next time frame and make sure that the next, smallest time frame is already on the button side.

[01:13:22]Maybe you guys can use RSI analysis. If the RSI has entered the oversold side, then it means we have support, right? It means it's going down quickly, then it's going back up again. So, the next candle will be similar to what happened on this side. You can imagine, right? You can imagine it going down, down, down. Then what happens?

[01:13:43]If we look at it here, right?

[01:13:45]It doesn't need to go overset because this is an A1 chart, it goes down to a 15-minute chart, and it turns out the next trigger is already raw.

[01:13:53]Yeah. But if you can get it on this side, it's better, it means you have a reason to buy on dip, right?

[01:14:02]So, even if this is assumed on the chart H1, okay, this is what's likely to happen. P, but suddenly it laps. Now, be careful, friends, if, for example, the buy area we want at 4498 doesn't form now, we assume it will work first to 44—oh sorry, 4590.

[01:14:22]4590 is very likely to go there.

[01:14:25]If it turns out it has formed, be careful, don't hold on, don't be euphoric, and don't be surprised if it suddenly shoots out very fast. Whether it's fast or slow, the main thing is that the area we will buy next is no longer the 4496 area. The next area we buy is not at 4496. Friends, you have to lower the possibility to at least 4453 or 4460, which is better? Just let it break. The break doesn't know where the tail will go. In my opinion, I hope it's 4420. If it doesn't, 4450 is okay. But basically, this is the basis for why we will buy. So my assumption is 4.00 is the final zone. Even if we consider this, it's a bit contradictory to what you guys think. You guys consider it an inverted hand and shoulder. I understand you guys are looking at it from this perspective, right? This is what's considered an inverted head and shoulders. As for me, that's what I've been saying since yesterday, and in today's article, I'm referring to this period, guys. Look at the position like this, guys.

[01:15:38]Well, this is a head and shoulders. So, instead of focusing on the inverted head and shoulders, let's make sure this one doesn't form a head and shoulders.

[01:15:47]Why? Because if the size of the head and shoulders is difficult, it will drop by this amount, guys. You can imagine, right? That means it will drop, maybe 4,200 will appear, 4,300 will appear. Right? So, I 'll skip this one for now because I want to make sure it doesn't form a head and shoulders. How do I do that?

[01:16:08]In today's and yesterday's articles, I wrote, "If you want to fight a head and shoulders, then fight it with patterns." We are not satisfied with the pattern on this side. We're not enough, folks. What we need is a large pattern. Why? To counter this large downward trending pattern, we need a counter with a large upward trending pattern.

[01:16:30]And that's what's formed on this side.

[01:16:35]This is what we call falling wages.

[01:16:37]So even if there is a failure and it doesn't break through 4589 and then it goes down again to 4450, don't worry because we still have hope, this is a form of falling wage, so later maybe here it will just be a tail and then it will come back here and then it will move up. If this happens, then friends have a big chance of having a cheaper buying area. Then later he will gradually increase to 4589 then 46 or even 4700, right or not. But that situation won't happen tonight, guys.

[01:17:15]Maybe the day after tomorrow or on Monday or Tuesday. That is, on the condition that there is no war on that weekend.

[01:17:24]Yes, I took the concept from here.

[01:17:27]Here, this is up, which means the new wave is up, right?

[01:17:30]This means it is considered a correction. If we assume this is a Fibonacci retracement, then my assumption is that it will only go down to 61.8. So if he is 61.8 my guess is tail here. That's our chance to buy.

[01:17:46]Gradually he will be finished.

[01:17:50]Got it? So I understand what my friends asked earlier, those who asked about inverted head and shoulders, actually I agree here, I agree. This afternoon, I thought, "Wow, this is pretty good if it's true. This inverted hand soldering iron is like this, my friends.

[01:18:07]Well, this one can be inverted and shoulder soldering iron." Doesn't mean where is the neklin? The nekline is here, right? Because this is the left shoulder, this is the head, this is the right shoulder, right?

[01:18:20]No, this is the right shoulder. So I'll describe it here, eh left, head, right, like that. will this work or not? Valid as long as it doesn't fall below 4495, 4490 is still valid invert if this is true friends, it means you can buy there, right? So does that mean his target is 4640 or not? Whether it looks like this and then it comes down or it comes down first and then it goes up is the same.

[01:18:51]Well, why do I say the same? Okay, let's give an example. Let's try to enlarge the graph. Okay, I made a picture that might help shape your mindset too. We will share the same vision. Okay, my first guess is that we take the big one, okay? This is the size of the falling wage, right? We suspect this is falling wages. Okay. Then earlier we suspected that there was a big head and shoulders. Let's assume the head and shoulders use red lines here. This is the head and shoulders of the threat, right? We form it like this. Okay.

[01:19:23]Well, this means the assumption can be here, right, it can also be here, right? Yes, you can. So, which one do we assume we'll take? Let's take the short one first. Okay, let's take the short one, invert hand shoulder. Okay, I agree with my friends first. Invert your hand shoulder like this. So, we took the next line like this.

[01:19:46]Then later we will see the structure is expected to rise. Okay, so the big guess is going up. come here yeah. This here means according to the height in this section, right?

[01:19:58]Well, this is almost wrong, isn't it? Does that mean the resistance is the same as what we said earlier, 4600 or 4630 or 46 40 or something like that? Then, let's continue with the biggest threat. The biggest threat is if he has finished with the inverse head and shoulder, then be careful with the threat of a bigger head and shoulder. So we assume it's like this, right?

[01:20:25]This is included in the red solder, right?

[01:20:29]That means it can do this, right?

[01:20:32]That means this is left, this is head, this is restolder. If the one at the bottom is the head, this is the left, this is the resolder.

[01:20:41]Same, that means your friends' mission is complete. Then suddenly there was a threat here pom. Well, that means the large head and shoulders will threaten the situation in the future or in the next hour with the concept that it will push back to a level of at least 4,400 or up to 4,300, right? Well, let's go back to the concept.

[01:21:05]If it turns out that what we suspect is resistance, then which side is the most likely resistance on? On the biggest side, yes. I took green. Okay. Well, here we have falling wages, right? If this is true, we hope that the decline here will only be a tail, failing to reach 4,300. Maybe it will only reach this point before it rebounds, and we hope that the head and shoulders will be countered by falling wages. Because if for example the wage is falling, it means 1 2 3 4 5, it ends there, the bomb goes up.

[01:21:49]Okay, this would happen if the geopolitical situation didn't heat up.

[01:21:54]Okay, I understand. The question about invert handseller has been answered earlier.

[01:21:59]So the situation is like that. But if we look at the patterns I mentioned earlier, it is very likely that we have a problem. So the point is, even if it goes up, be careful with 4589 and 4645.

[01:22:14]Actually, my hope is that this week we will end here in the 4600s or 4640s. So later, if it's already 4640, don't hold back, buy, friends, you have to get out first.

[01:22:28]Why? Firstly, if it turns out that this is not enough time, it means that this has entered the overnight period, right? I don't recommend overnight. We don't know what happened over the weekend and we don't know what happened to the gap on Monday. If it turns out that Monday, let's say there is a gap down, does that mean we have a chance to see what? Possibility is 1 2 3 4 5, right? This means we have a look at the possibilities between head and shoulders versus falling wage. So if it suddenly gaps down there, there's no need to worry, it means your friends are saved because the inverted head sole is finished. Then it will go down first, whether it's as a head and shoulders or maybe it's held back by falling wages.

[01:23:11]If that happens, it's 4,400 or 4,450.

[01:23:15]Well, we have a chance, right? If it turns out that diplomacy continues, wow, this is good, we can ban it there. So today stop stop stop eh trading in so midnight you enjoy your holiday. Then observe the news that develops, we will see what it will be like on Monday, sir. But if it turns out he gives up, it would be a loss. No loss either. Why not lose? Hey, the big figure is here, guys. Yes, it doesn't mean that this is just the first step if he goes up here. Because the next step is the increase here, which is much more important. This is a big figure, right? This is more bigure, yeah. Okay, that's great. Okay, then I think that's enough, friends. We will continue again on Monday. Hopefully what happened this weekend truly illustrates the situation we discussed earlier. Then in the future, ee June, July, August, maybe those are the 3 months that friends should mark first. The first FMC June 18th.

[01:24:14]We don't know where Kevin Was is going.

[01:24:16]But my strong suspicion is that he will keep it. Why? While maintaining that, there is a term called higher for longer, right? Higher Vonger is the way the central bank or the Fed at least protects itself by not acting too quickly but not acting too slowly. So that's why there's always a statement, "eh, eh, monetary policy is in a good place, appropriate, right now, it means it's good, it can wait." Well, the indicator to wait for is economic data. Well, since this inflation was driven by war, we automatically have to examine the source of the disaster first. Well, that's why the key is in the slat hormones. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices are down, meaning inflation is easing. If inflation subsides, then there's no need to panic about raising interest rates. Well, if that happens, it's similar to what happened in 2024, similar to what happened in 2025. So, we'll get that trigger at the Jackson Hall Symposium in August, right? So, for today just enjoy it. If there is a bounce you can buy. If there is a derivative you exit from buy, you look for the momentum to sell. But make sure there is a reversal candle. Okay, I think that's enough, friends. Thank you for the discussion.

[01:25:30]Thank you also to my friends. Eh, that information was really cool too.

[01:25:35]Okay, questions are also okay. We will meet again on Monday and best regards.

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