Rapid ageing, fewer births: NZ is facing a huge demographic shift | Stuff.co.nz

追加: 2026-04-29

[00:00:00]The authors of a new report into New Zealand's changing population are urging officials to come up with a long-term and non-partisan strategy to better ensure we're prepared for demographic shifts. By 2048, it's expected nearly a quarter of New Zealand's population will be over the age of 65 with almost half identifying with an ethnicity other than New Zealand European. Emeritus Professor Paul Spoonley is one of the authors of People, Place, and Prosperity: The Case for a Population Strategy. Professor Spoonley, reading this report, it's it's it seems to me a little bit like a freight train is hitting our way, but no one can see it coming. Is that fair?

[00:00:38]Uh yes, a freight train is hitting our way. I mean, we're seeing major demographic change, which is really kicked in post-COVID. And through the 2020s, we're going to see a very different New Zealand emerge. I think some people are seeing aspects. We acknowledge the aging of the population.

[00:00:55]You've mentioned the number who are aged over 65. But the other elements, including declining fertility, uh the role of immigration in terms of diversity, and the fact that many more of us are living in the top half of the North Island, and especially in Auckland, I don't think many New Zealanders quite understand how significant these changes are. There are huge changes coming. So, a quarter of the population over the age of 65 in just, you know, two decades time. And then you mentioned the fertility rate, a record low rate of 1.55 births per woman. So, what does that actually mean for the country?

[00:01:33]Well, it first of all exaggerates the aging of the population because we're having many fewer children born in New Zealand. At 1.55 births per woman, it's 25% below replacement level. So, in the next few years, there will be 40,000 fewer children in our primary education system. That'll have impacts on our secondary, tertiary, and then of course our workforce. So, the two, the aging of the population combined with this much lower fertility, is going to change the shape of New Zealand. The younger age groups will be quite small compared to the older age groups.

[00:02:10]And you've called for a long-term plan to deal with these these enormous demographic shifts. What in your view does that need to include?

[00:02:19]Well, I think it needs to put together the elements, the facts of where we live in New Zealand, the fact that some parts of New Zealand are experiencing population stagnation or decline, other parts are growing fast, the declining fertility, the aging of the population, and the fact that we need to provide services and infrastructure, and of course, what role should immigration pay play in all of this? Those are big policy questions that we need to consider and sort out. We know what's coming. We know what New Zealand's going to look like in 10 or 20 years time. So, why don't we plan for it?

[00:02:52]A lot to unpack, especially in an election year. Professor Paul Spoonley, thank you so much for your time today.

[00:02:58]Much appreciated as always.