Mark Halperin: Trump Is Trapped

Ajouté : 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]Mark Halpern is here in the third hour of every Wednesday's program and we really appreciate Mark Halpern. So Mark, with peace and love, with peace and love, I had to offer some criticism of your friends Joe and Ma here today. It's because as they first came on air at 6:00 a.m. this morning, the first words out of each of their mouths pertained to the president yesterday when there was a microphone put in front of him and he was asked to what extent Americans financial straits are motivating him to make a deal with Iran. And I thought that he gave an entirely credible the right answer. I would have said more if I were the president of the United States. But but so so many of his critics so many of his critics are instead being very condemning and saying, "Look at that. He just admitted he doesn't give a damn about any of you." Allow me, Mark Halpern, please, to just run the tape, not of Joe and Ma, but of President Trump yesterday. It's 50 seconds long. Here it is.

[00:01:03]>> When you're negotiating with Iran, Mr. President, to what extent are American financial situations motivating you to make a deal?

[00:01:11]>> Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon.

[00:01:17]I don't think about American financial situation. I don't think about anybody.

[00:01:22]I think about one thing. You cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all.

[00:01:28]That's the only thing.

[00:01:30]>> Mark Halpern, what was he supposed to say? Oh, I'm really worried about gas prices and consequently I'm going to capitulate with Iran.

[00:01:39]Well, I'm for consistency.

[00:01:43]I I I I have the same view about Democrat and Republican presidents falling asleep during events in the Oval Office. And I have the same point and I have the same point of view about presidents who say things live extemporaneously that can be taken out of context. When Barack Obama said, "You didn't build it. I couldn't care less."

[00:02:02]I know what he meant. And I know, as you know, what Donald Trump means in this case with respect to Joe and Mika. What he means is I'm doing something out of principle. We have to stop them from having nuclear weapons. And if that requires some economic sacrifice on the part of this country, people need to understand that. That's what he meant.

[00:02:19]But taken out of out of the context, that should be in a thousand Democratic ads. And every Democrat I've asked about it when I've said, "Are you going to put that in ads?" They're like, "Yeah."

[00:02:30]So it's if politically it's unfortunate wording. However, the only the only tweak I'd make on that is there is a better way to say that, which is the way you said it, which is which is I'm not going to put as commander-in-chief, I'm not going to set aside America's security, Israel security, the world security because of some short-term economic dislocation. As painful as that is, as concerned as I am about the American people, as hard as I'm fighting every day to keep prices low despite the war, I can't put America's security aside. But instead, what he said was, "I don't think about America's economic problems." And that's not how he feels, obviously. Clearly. I mean, it's the same with Barack Obama saying, "You didn't build it." Of course. Of course, they wouldn't actually be saying what their political opponents are saying, they said. But that's the, you know, the nature of the world. And that's not just the nature of the modern digital Tik Tok world. If uh Herbert Hoover had said uh you know I don't I don't care about America's economics, it would have been a big deal then too because it's just a extremely poor wording just as when Barack Obama said you didn't build that. That was poor wording too.

[00:03:41]>> Mr. We could use a man like Herbert Hoover again. I could single out CNN in similar fashion because last night it was it it was it led the coverage. like, can you believe? And the minute he said it, I was watching in real time and I knew, well, there there it is. There's the bite that's going to get used. And it was, of course, how about, by the way, how about the substantive part of of what he's been saying? He seems to finally have refined the message to one thing that is bite-sized and everybody can comprehend, which is they can't have a nuclear weapon. Notwithstanding that when he first on February 28 when this was launched, there were a number of things on the list, but that's where we are now.

[00:04:21]>> Well, unfortunately for him, we're also where the straight has to reopen.

[00:04:27]So although you're right that he's shown pretty good discipline, as has Secretary Ruby and others in saying this war is about the metric of success is making sure Iran can't have a nuclear weapon.

[00:04:41]Part of why he's in a very difficult position now geopolitically is he can't he can't leave with the straight closed and he can't leave with the circumstances that Iran could open it and then close it back up. So that wasn't a problem before the war but it is now and although he doesn't say it always because as you're you're right this is arguably like the greatest message discipline he's ever shown on anything over a sustained period of time it's just not true. Uh, and that leaves aside, of course, regime change and their ballistic missile capability and their terrorism and all that stuff. But, um, but but but nobody thinks he can walk away without the straight being open. And at this point, Iran is feeling its oats on that. You know, they're they're they're basically saying, "Yeah, we'll settle the war, but we're in charge of the strait. We just need to work out the modalities of that." Mark, April of 2017, the president was enjoying dinner at Mara Lago with President Xiinping when he gave the order to launch 59 Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian air base. What do you think the likelihood is that hostilities are taken up a few notches while he's in China?

[00:05:51]Maybe the the predicate of of, you know, Yeah.

[00:05:54]>> being with Shei and and all of a sudden dropping the bomb on Iran >> next to zero. Although I had one source tell me, don't be s. Yeah. Um, it's very hard to to do command and control from China because of uh the Chinese ability to spy.

[00:06:09]>> And remember, China is is an ally of Iran. Um, you know, uh, Pakistan, China, Russia, they've all helped Iran. and and it's kind of uh it's the ultimate real politique to go over there and say to a guy who is helping Iran win the war, my dear friend, we're we're such close friends. We're personally close. Our countries have so much to do together.

[00:06:36]He should be he should be cancelling the summit or going over there and saying publicly, "How dare you help Iran?" But they are. It's widely reported they're helping Iran. So therefore, if you try to run the war from there and you have to have conversations, even if you're if you're trying to run it from the American ambassador's residence or the US embassy, you can't assume the Chinese aren't hearing everything that's happening. And obviously, if you think they might tell the Iranians, that that's just not safe. And there's really no reason for him to launch the war from there. There's no there's nothing there's although the t clock is ticking because of the midterms and because of the price of oil and gas and uh some of the unhappiness of other countries that it's it's more of a calendar than a clock though. So it's hard for me to see the the except from perhaps the element of surprise. It's hard for me to see any reason to think uh and that what that one source said to me. It's hard to see why that it would happen in the next four days while he's in China.

[00:07:36]>> Okay. So, my poll today asks this question and 70% are saying it's not going to happen. And I'm not predicting that it will. I just thought it was the ultimate way to send a message to Shei while you're there. Your security concern is a legitimate one. But while he's having dinner at Shei's house, you know, drop the bombs them.

[00:07:55]>> Yeah. Um, again, I understand what you're saying, but I think the trade-off of for operational security is um is pretty big. You know, the other thing is I I'm not based on what I know, I'm not particularly optimistic that the Chinese are going to help solve this, but I think that I think I think at a minimum there's going to be a proforma effort to say to the Chinese as part of these conversations, you got any ideas for solving this? I don't think the Chinese could end the war if they wanted to, but I also don't think they want to.

[00:08:26]>> Mark, I'm not totally dialed in on who was with the president, who's in that entourage. I know Elon is is with him. I know that uh uh Tim Cook is with him.

[00:08:35]You probably have, you know, the uh the full itinerary, not itinerary, but the what do I what am I trying to say? You know, manifest the manifest. There you go. Yeah. And any anything of surprise?

[00:08:46]Any any reaction from Mark Halpern on who he took with him?

[00:08:51]>> No surprise. He took the the president likes really successful American business people. Uh both people who make things and people who do finance. uh and uh every name on that list is familiar to to me and to people who follow big business and relationship with this administration and the and they represent sectors that are important for the present and the president hopes future economic relations between the two countries. So it's an august list uh includes a couple people I know and uh again very prominent business leaders in in finance and in the real economy.

[00:09:25]>> So what do you think comes of this trip?

[00:09:29]Um I think they'll be uh remember these two leaders are scheduled to meet three more times this year. It's kind of extraordinary. Four meetings in the space of just about half a year and I have been told uh by several people to think of this as act one of a four-act drama. So I suspect what will come on of this trip is an attempt to establish framework on economics, security, AI, trade uh and uh and uh national national security not security on AI and national security. I think you'll see a lot of uh uh working groups set up. You'll see a lot of uh pledges about certain things like purchasing of airplanes, pledges about continuity on on tariff uh levels.

[00:10:17]But I wouldn't I wouldn't expect I would expect that the main thing that comes out of this besides some fake announcements about soybeans that they already said they'll buy, they're going to buy again. I I think you'll see uh a a pledge to continue progress in the next three meetings. Live betting on Detroit in the pro basketball playoffs and Detroit baseball better on the Play Gun Lake online casino and sportsbook app where there's always another way for you to win in the great state of Michigan. And the prop bets are what I'm talking about. So, for example, in basketball, it could be points, it could be assists, it could be rebounds. In baseball, for Detroit baseball, it could be runs, it could be strikeouts. Play Gun Lake. Make your downtime funtime.

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[00:12:49]You've already said that you you're not optimistic that that China will get involved and try and bring about a resolution with regard to Iran. There's been a lot of reporting in the last couple of days, the New York Times today, a story that talks about the missile capabilities. So, it's the second time within four or five days from a major outlet here in the US saying they weren't as decimated as the administration led us to believe. Your thoughts on that story or stories?

[00:13:17]>> They're important. Um although, as you know, well, it's not the first time news organizations have reported that that's the view of the American government. Um, I say this about all governments, not just Democrats, not just Republicans.

[00:13:30]Governments lie during war. That's what they do. And while the president, Pete Heg says say the war is going very well.

[00:13:37]I've been struck this week in talking to opponents of the war and supporters of the war.

[00:13:42]That pretty much no one else thinks it's going well. That's not to denigrate our fighting men and women. It's not to say this war can't be won. It's not to say the war was a mistake necessarily. It's not to say that um uh that the president should panic, but it is to say that I find two schools of thought now. Both people in both schools agree it's not going well. It's unlikely to won't be won through economic pressure, even though the president Scott Besson say that it can be. It's unlikely to be won by a negotiation with the current set of leaders in Iran. So, one school of thought represented by former New York City mayor Bill Delasio, who was on my two-way Tonight Show last night, says, "Make the best deal you can and get out."

[00:14:24]Uh, Jake Sullivan said the same thing on Morning Joe today. Former Biden, Clinton, uh, Obama National Security Adviser. Make the best deal with this regime and get out. And then the other school has the same set of facts. Not going well. Current trajectory not good.

[00:14:40]No deal possible with these group of fanatics in Iran. And that group, I would say our friend Eric Ericson very much is in this group, says with that set of facts, bomb them back to the stone age. That there's no pin prick bombing. There's no looking for moderates to negotiate with. There's no waiting them out and hoping that they cave because the economy is bad. I find fewer and fewer people in the middle.

[00:15:05]They and fewer and fewer people who are okay with the way it's going. And by the way, that includes many friends of the president. And it also includes uh many Republican members of Congress who publicly say this is going great, but who privately do not think it's going great. The New York Times coverage is that which I was referring to. quote, "Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Straight of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway." Very similar reporting to what the Washington Post had, as I say, four or five days ago. Richard Clark, who spent 10 years in the White House and advised three US presidents, was here yesterday, and he was drawing parallels between the predicament faced by President Trump and that of Vladimir Putin in so far as they they lead these countries with these enormous war machines and in battles that they were expected to win and achieve their objectives are both now stymied. I think he used the word embarrassed in the essay that he wrote.

[00:16:09]I really hadn't thought of the similarities in those terms until he expressed it that way.

[00:16:16]>> Asymmetrical warfare is a >> Yep.

[00:16:19]>> It just is. It's just it's just, you know, Putin is stymied and Trump is stymied because they're going up with people who have different capabilities and different needs for what constitutes a win.

[00:16:36]And um again, I thought this for a couple weeks now, but but more and more people are starting to say it to me.

[00:16:43]There's not and and we saw it over the weekend. This regime is not going to negotiate a deal. Their latest offer was we want sanctions relief. We want our assets unfrozen. We want war reparations. We want to control the strait. We want you to get Israel to stop defending itself. And then like Wimpy says, I'll gladly pay you Wednesday for a hamburger on Monday.

[00:17:02]Then we'll talk about the nuclear stuff.

[00:17:05]I mean, if anyone's still under the illusion that this regime or any semblance of this regime is going to make a deal the president could accept, not just politically or in terms of embarrassment, but in terms of the original goal to make America and Israel safe and the world safe, he can't accept a deal like that. So, um, it's it's it's it certainly fair to say how did the president actually think he was going to win this war? That's a fair discussion to have. But I'm more interested in the discussion of for America is what do we do now? And as I said, it seems like unless you want to triple down on the economic stuff, you can't win it unless you just destroy the country or give up. And uh and obviously giving up isn't winning. Um the AP has a story today. There's so little reporting out of Iran. You and I have discussed this before. The AP has a story written from Iran saying the economy is in bad shape, but it's not like they're ready to surrender over it.

[00:18:02]We see all these stories. They can they can ship stuff other ways. The the Russians and the Chinese will help them evade the sanctions. So, I just I do not believe there's any evidence that it's winnable on economics.

[00:18:15]>> Okay?

[00:18:15]>> And I do not believe it's winnable on on military.

[00:18:17]>> Okay? So, let me do the weave. Let me go back to I I love doing the weave. Except my weaves really do have a beginning, a middle, and an end. I'll go back to where we began the conversation, which is what the president said in saying Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. And I I understand that the two camps exist.

[00:18:35]Those who say let's just pull up stakes now, and those who say bomb them to the stone age. I can't see a scenario where the president pulls up stakes now, having so clearly recently articulated it's all about nuclear enrichment. So, doesn't that increase the likelihood that he is going to start a military campaign and maybe as soon as while he's in China?

[00:18:57]>> I don't, as I said before, I don't think he'll start it while he's there, but I wouldn't rule it out. I think the way around what you said is another round of bombing of the nuclear facilities, right? Israel kills more Israel kills more nuclear scientists by, you know, assassinating them on the ground with their spies. and the president and Netanyahu say this was worth it because they were weeks away from a bomb and now they're not. I think that's that's that's a way out of it.

[00:19:26]>> And then fade to black. That's it.

[00:19:29]>> Well, and then say and then say we'll come back as needed. Now, the problem with that solution is it doesn't open the straight.

[00:19:37]That's the problem with that solution.

[00:19:41]And and again, are the Iranians going to open the trade if you kill their scientists and bomb them again?

[00:19:47]>> No evidence that they would.

[00:19:49]>> Richard Clark, >> no evidence that they would.

[00:19:50]>> Richard Clark wondered yesterday whether we had appropriately war gamed out the possibility that Iran would close the straight.

[00:20:00]>> You know, this is a conversation that we were having weeks ago and when I would say it publicly and I'd be criticized.

[00:20:07]Well, of course they had a plan for this. It's more gamed out. Anytime anybody talks about the region, of course they did. To me, uh, may I say primmaaccia? Is that okay phrase to use?

[00:20:17]Sure.

[00:20:17]>> Primmaaccia. They didn't have a plan.

[00:20:20]They had no plan because if they had a plan, you know what? The straight wouldn't be closed.

[00:20:24]>> That's a great point.

[00:20:25]>> And uh I mean it just it's just true.

[00:20:28]They had no plan. Now, I still don't understand why Iran didn't close the straight five years ago. Seemed like seemed like they could have closed it five years ago. I don't get I don't get why they didn't. Uh but there's no plan to open the straight and you and and you know not just because again primapacasia's closed they've tried a bunch of things. The president announced a thing a few days ago about escorting ships through and then 6 hours later he ended it. So it it's it's it seems like unless you want to precipitate World War II, you cannot open the straight by force.

[00:21:04]and and the New if the New York Times reporting is right, we've known this from the beginning, you'd have to take out a lot of stuff to force Iran to, you know, to make it make it impossible for them to keep the straight closed on their terms. You'd have to take out a lot of stuff and that's, you know, that's risking Iran hitting desalination plants and cutting the underground cables that carry the electronic communications and um the Ritz Carlton in in Doha. I mean, it's clear that if if you want to try to control the street militarily, you're going to have to have a world war over it. And I just don't think the president's interested in that, but he might have to be.

[00:21:41]>> Only one person in this conversation has been to the Ritz Carlton in Doha.

[00:21:47]>> Not me. Not me. I've not been to that one. But I've been to many, but not that one. And I'm not even sure there is one, but I use it as a metaphorical.

[00:21:54]>> I'm pretty sure there is example.

[00:21:55]>> I'm pretty sure. It may be a four seasons. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:21:59]>> Yeah. Maybe four seasons. I don't like I'm a Ritz guy. I'm a Ritz guy.

[00:22:04]>> You're not gonna ask me why were you there?

[00:22:08]>> I mean, you're a globe trotting uh bombant.

[00:22:12]Uh I I think I think you were there with the Harlem Globe Trotters. Why were you there?

[00:22:16]>> Yeah, Meadowark Lemon and I shared a room.

[00:22:20]>> We appreciate you, Mark. That was a lot to unpack and I'm very very grateful.

[00:22:25]>> Sure. Thank you. See you next week.

[00:22:27]>> Okay. Hey, Mark Halpern. Ladies and gentlemen, Wednesday, third hour, always here and we appreciate it. I choose to pick up there are five different directions I could go based on the conversation with Mark, but I'm going to take the lowhanging fruit, which is to say if there were just two options, and maybe there are. They're not going to make a deal, Mark said. I agree with that. They are not going to make a deal.

[00:22:49]Listen to what they're saying through their spokespeople. The Iranians are not going to make a deal. So what then can the president do? He can pack up and come home. He can he can offer something publicly to try and save face, but everybody's going to say, "Wait a minute. You didn't achieve any of the objectives except getting rid of Jamei, although now his son is there. That really doesn't seem much."

[00:23:14]Or Mark's words based on the people that he was speaking to bomb them to the stone age. Which of those is more likely to unfold? That the president, what do they say? Taco that he chickens out and comes home or or that he takes it up a couple of notches. Which is more likely? That's one way of asking it. And which is more prudent? If I were to make it a poll question, I'm not sure which of the two uh I would select, but I think probably those are the the likely outcomes. And I don't know which way he's going to go. I just don't know. I think saving face really matters in this circumstance and always to the president. Yesterday's conversation with Russell Murehead, Professor Murehead from Dartmouth, which was a great conversation about conspiracy and belief that belief by some, a significant number frankly, that the three Trump assassination attempts, one or more of them, uh were staged. a great conversation. Now, a book club review. The book is titled A lot of people are saying and it is episode number, wait for it now, 539. That means I've got 539 solid author interviews that we have released.

[00:24:30]So, you can take me for a walk with an author of your choice. And the breadth, the scope, the diversity of the subject matter is really unbelievable. really I'm so proud of I'm so proud of those book club podcasts and candidly they're they're not as popular as people who just want to listen to something from the Daily Show. Um they're a uh an untapped resource. They really really are. And a piece of Everyday Show ends up as a podcast as well. So I recommend that. For example, what have we done recently? Uh oh, the Ted Turner story.

[00:25:06]Loved that. That was great. That was really a great conversation. And TC drops every Thursday, so tomorrow. Yes, I do. TC after dark. What have What have you got?

[00:25:15]>> Get ready. Get ready for tomorrow. It's going to be interesting. I taped it on a day that I was not feeling well. Uh >> oh.

[00:25:20]>> Yeah, I'm going to talk about it.

[00:25:21]>> Is that an excuse or an explanation for the subject matter?

[00:25:24]>> It's neither. You know what it was? It was what do you eat? What do you eat when you're not feeling well? That's what it was about.

[00:25:29]>> A grilled cheese.

[00:25:30]>> There you go. See, you had an answer.

[00:25:31]>> Of course.

[00:25:32]>> All right. Chicken. Chicken salad.

[00:25:34]>> Chicken salad from Bargers. That's what my mother used to bring to me. chicken salad from something that we eat when we're not feeling well.

[00:25:39]>> Bargers was great. Barger was great. Uh, okay. John's in Connecticut and stands by. John, your turn. What did you most want to offer?

[00:25:49]>> So, taking the call. I think if you have only two choices of Trump backing down or bombing, then there's no way he's going to back down because he never backs down because he looks bad. So, he's going to bomb. That's the way I see it.

[00:26:03]>> Is there a third?

[00:26:04]>> Those are the only two options, by the way. Is there a third option? I mean, you you know, you're you're read in. You know what? I know.

[00:26:10]>> Is there something else that could happen?

[00:26:14]>> Probably, but I'm not as smart as you are, so I don't >> Yeah, I'm not either.

[00:26:17]>> How about that?

[00:26:18]>> I mean, hopefully there's something going on behind the scenes that that neither of us is neither of us is thinking about. Uh, is your name law? If so, that's kind of cool. From Northern New Jersey.

[00:26:32]>> How are you, Michael?

[00:26:33]>> Good. um point I want to make. I mean, we there's a lot of talk about this being an existential situation for the Iranian government. It's also for our president because if the Democrats take over the House and the Senate, his life's going to be miserable. And I'm not sure that's something he wants to deal with.

[00:26:51]>> Subpoena power. I mean, what's what really what really is at stake? I've been thinking about writing on this and and booking guests on this. What's really at stake in the midterm? It's not as if they're passing legislation right now. And there's something there's no big uh Trump agenda item. I mean, he he he did the tax bill that he wanted to do. There's nothing coming down the the pike on on immigration that I'm aware of. So, it's not as if he's going to be denied legislative accomplishment.

[00:27:22]To me, the big gain for Democrats is that now they can hold hearings. They will have the power of subpoena in the House of Representatives.

[00:27:30]That's what's at stake and that will be such an impediment for Trump as you say to make his life m all these stories that you see day in and day out. I'll give you a good a great one. The reflecting pool, right? All I can think of is Forest Gump when I when I see and how he's he's painting it, you know, blue now or the ballroom. I mean, all of those the monument that he wants to build. I don't know why I'm only thinking of geography obviously about Iran obviously about the economy whatever the issue might be but but on some of those things there where the president is just just exercising what he believes he has the executive power to do now maybe not the president but members of the administration and witnesses and contractors there going to be a lot of hearings that's what I think a lot of hearings Mike you believe that I am wrong and you are in Texas what am I wrong out.

[00:28:24]>> Well, I want to say something about Mark. Um, he was refreshingly objective and neutral this morning. He usually leans right and he usually sort of bats the administration, but I liked his uh his spin on that. But as far as where you're wrong, uh on uh Trump's comments yesterday, um sometimes the obvious is is the truth. He has no empathy as far as the American people.

[00:28:54]He's never put gas in a t uh gas in a car, had to buy meat at the grocery store. And I just think this whole war, >> what would you have had him say >> flooding?

[00:29:08]>> You you are President Trump. You're headed for China. And a reporter a reporter yesterday asks you to what extent I'm paraphrasing to what extent you think about the plight of ordinary Americans financially as you are approaching the war in Iran. What should his answer have been?

[00:29:27]>> Well, you've already touched on that.

[00:29:30]You and many callers. He should have elaborated and said, "I do feel your pain. I care." But blah blah blah.

[00:29:38]>> He didn't he didn't do that. But I I would like I'd like to finish with this.

[00:29:42]I do believe this war was um initially started uh as a result of flooding the zone and the Epstein files were heating up. And I think that the the the tell was when Melania came out and had to make a a comment, you know, uh regarding her being implicated. I think that's what pushed him over the edge and he thought, I got to do something because this Epstein thing is getting too close to home. That's my opinion.

[00:30:14]>> Okay. I mean, my my view is that Netanyahu sold him on the idea that he could not only wipe out that >> the regime in one fell swoop, but that people would flood the streets and he'd be hailed as a hero for having brought about change in Iran. Uh, that's what I'm thinking.