Storm Surge And Tropical Storm Watches Expand Across The Gulf As Potential Upgrade To Bertha Looms

[00:00:00]Interfox weather hurricane specialist Brian Norcross. Uh Brian, as far as changes go, I mean tropical depressions, this is the time where you can have some significant changes, but uh there hasn't been much that we've seen from from this. It's it's an asymmetrical storm, but it's a big >> Yeah, a big circulation as you've been talking about. Uh Stephen and hurricane hunters have found a system that's really not strengthening very quickly because it is so big and it's under hostile upper level winds, but it is showing some signs of organization and it would not take much for it to become tropical storm Bertha only 5 mph increase in the wind. So that is still in the forecast. But really it's a very hostile environment over uh the Gulf.

[00:00:44]The good thing is that that hostile environment is tending to push everything offshore and so only very fringe effects. Here you see from the 11:00 a.m. advisory. Winds still at 35 miles per hour. Uh northwest at three.

[00:00:59]So just drifting although the center has seemed to reform just a little bit according to the aircraft. And a 107 millibars is the lowest that they measured out there. Here you can see on the satellite a little something here just to the east of Tampa Bay heading up toward Lakeland and up here on the coast. We'll look a little closer at that with the radar here in just a moment. All right, let's go uh kind of close up in here with the new visible satellite pictures because now the sun is up over the Gulf. We can kind of see what's going on out there. And the main thing we see out of this is that right here we see some cluster of thunderstorms trying to form near the center. Now generally it's just this giant uh circulation that's left over from the way this thing formed here over a good part of the Gulf. We also continue to see dry air being pulled down on this side and a channel of dry air up here. So these are inhibiting the development of this thing besides the thing just being large and trying to pull itself together, that's a a process. But the fact that we're seeing in here thunderstorms trying to wrap into the center, that's a sign that development may be kind of slowly underway. But it's under very um hostile or reasonably hostile upper level winds and they're expected to stay with it. Here when we look at the radar, what can we see here?

[00:02:29]First of all, look at the track. You see it just kind of messing around just slowly meandering around here. And systems that do that are always kind of difficult to project into the future.

[00:02:43]you want to see a river of air kind of taking it one direction or the other, but there is pretty good consensus in the models. Here we see right along the coast some strong thunderstorm cells that have gusty winds in them, but so far these are being left in the Gulf of Mexico for the most part. So, we'll watch to see exactly how much coastal effect we get here under these hostile winds. There you see it right there. The other thing we're getting here is because we're getting an onshore flow here in the in Appalache Bay in this part of Appalache Bay here, you're going to get water rise, high tides maybe up to three feet. One to three feet is what they're projecting above normal high tide there. And as this system goes west, the tides are going to be even more than that. Some parts of the coast up to four feet above the normal high tide. So they've put up a tropical storm watch. So in your area, if you're right along the coast, just be aware of that.

[00:03:41]So here's the forecast. You notice 45 mph tropical storm Bertha here by tomorrow morning, maybe even by later today, we get it to cross that 40 mph line. Here you see up to 50 mph. So that's as strong as the hurricane center is forecasting it as it moves by here.

[00:03:59]And you might say, really, can you get a storm surge with 50 mph winds? And the answer is yes. along some of these vulnerable areas right along the Gulf Coast. The Gulf Coast spectacularly susceptible to storm surge. Now, what's going to happen here? Notice it's not moving very fast. Here we are tomorrow morning, it's only there and then Wednesday morning there and then finally Wednesday evening somewhere near Louisiana. Now, when you have a disorganized system, as I said, confidence is kind of low of knowing exactly what it's going to do. But all of the forecasts show hostile upper level winds limiting how strong this thing can get and eventually moves over in the direction of Texas depending on what's exactly left of it. See, look at the the computer models kind of tell the story here. First of all, we have all this uncertainty. Does it zigzag around?

[00:04:50]Does it move slowly? What exactly happens in here? But generally a path toward Louisiana. Now the way we sort all this out is you take an average of the main models and that's what you look at. The question of which is the best model is not a good question. The best thing to look at is the consensus. And there you see it. It goes toward Louisiana and then more or less down the center of the cone. That's what they base the cone on. The Google deep mind model, by the way, just dives it out right around New Orleans. Says, "Okay, there's just the upper level winds just kind of shred." Many of the models do that, but some keep it going for a while before it dies out. So, as of right now, the threat to Texas really is just the leftover rain, but we're going to, you know, because of the uncertainty involved in a just developing system.

[00:05:41]Folks in Texas on the Texas coast, just be aware that just on a slight chance that it the upper level wind forecast is not correct and it hangs together that it is coming that direction eventually.

[00:05:55]Here's when you look at the under the hood of all the different models and and where they what they say. The thing to take away here is the Google ones, the blue ones really are have high confidence that it's going to go toward New Orleans and kind of die out. Now, the red ones, the GFS ones, you go, some go up here, some go over here, but we're not really paying much attention to the GFS, honestly, uh, these days. It just has not been very good. The European, which of course is a more reliable model on average, you see a bunch of them kind of do a bunch of weak things. It just kind of dies out here, but then a few do come over toward Texas, but as a weaker system. So, it kind of confirms what we saw with the other information. So here's the threat graphic. You notice a higher confidence is right in here. And then we get very low confidence that anything's going to happen over here. So for right now, let's just focus on up until Wednesday when it gets to the vicinity of New Orleans, southeastern Louisiana, something like that. Terms of the rainfall, because of those upper level winds, the heaviest rain stays offshore. This takes you to Thursday morning. So notice no concern in Texas up to that point. And then as we move forward in time here up to Saturday, yes, some rain in Texas, but there is the the the forecast is not for much effect in Texas right now. It would be kind of leftover effect. So if everything works out the way it looks right now, the the whole issue here really is in the next few days here on the northern Gulf Coast. Probably not much effect, but thinking about water rise there. And just stay in touch with your local forecast terms of water and maybe some isolated real tropical downpours as this thing moves by probably to your south. But we're going to put a lot of probabilities and continue to watch us on this thing because anytime you have a just developing system, forecasts are subject to change, guys.

[00:07:55]>> Yeah, I absolutely because I was wondering, do I even ask you, Brian, about how the the new forecast track is just a little south of the previous track at 5:00 a.m. It was a little north. This is going to happen, especially with the tropical depression.

[00:08:09]And I mentioned, I mean, there can be big changes with with tropical depressions this early on, but not seen much of that. But uh before we let you go, I don't want to speculate, but also in theory a tropical cyclone that stays overwater will strengthen. If this thing does stay on the left side of the cone and overwater, there are some factors that keep this thing from really growing into possibly a hurricane. You'd agree?

[00:08:34]>> Yeah, the upper level winds are are forecast to be hostile for a while and then very hostile. Like it's not like they get better. this is its opportunity right now to kind of pull itself uh together. They're moderate at at this point. So that's why it's pushed everything off short. And remember that the cone is about the center of the storm. The center of a disorganized storm is not really important. It's what happens outside the center, the bands and so forth where you can get the the strongest gustiest winds. And also we be if it really does get 50 mph winds that will produce some storm surge for boers and beach interests and so forth.

[00:09:15]They're going to have to pay attention to that. But as of right now, the environment just does not look conducive for uh a really strong storm, especially heading off toward Texas later in the week.

[00:09:27]>> All right. All right. Well, TD2, we will have time to watch it much of the week.

[00:09:30]We'll be doing it. Brian, thanks for the analysis following the uh 11:00 advisory for us. Brian Noror cross our hurricane specialist.