US-Iran Peace Deal 'Largely Negotiated'? | Strategic Breakdown | LIVE ANALYSIS EDUCATIONAL VIEW |

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]And that the agreement between Iran and US is largely finalized to end the war and we'll discuss its impact on global trade and fuel and oil prices and the uh uh whether why the nuclear issue is not the part of this deal and what is [snorts] in the deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz. We'll discuss it with the educational and documentary point of view strongly following the YouTube community guidelines.

[00:00:30]uh Let's begin this war last night when um the Jerry Vance when Jerry Vance the vice president left for the meeting in which it was decided that and announced that the deal is nearly reached and finalized.

[00:00:55]Uh Uh with the key let's deep dive into the this news and give you the inside on this news and the details of this news.

[00:01:10]Um Pakistani mediated diplomatic push has resulted in a preliminary framework uh agreement described by a US Donald Trump President Donald Trump as um largely negotiated.

[00:01:32]Um this agreement is designed to establish an immediate ceasefire and freeze the high intensity air campaign uh waged by US and Israel against Iranian military and street infrastructure.

[00:01:48]Um Um The core details of the deal are um The core details of the deal the current draft functions as a framework agreement it dictates an immediate cessation of hostilities opening 30 to 60 day diplomatic window to hammer out the final granular terms of permanent peace treaty.

[00:02:25]In exchange for compliance the United States has agreed to a partial unfreezing of Iranian assets currently held in foreign banks and a conditional suspension of the total enable blockade of Iran and Iranian ports.

[00:02:55]With that let's discuss The agreement purposefully separates immediate security concerns like maritime passage from deeper geopolitical issues such as Iran's ballistic missile programs and proxy networks leaving the latter for upcoming bilateral rounds which will be taking place in Pakistan as it was confirmed by the premier of Pakistan as it was confirmed by the premier While the deal successfully prevents an immediate collapse of the Iranian state it represents a fragile status quo.

[00:03:54]Uh it represents fragile status quo.

[00:03:57]Um hardline elements within IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, view the pause as an opportunity to reconstitute uh deeply degraded uh military infrastructure.

[00:04:14]Uh meanwhile, Israel remains cautious having targeted critical Iranian command nodes air defenses, including S-300 systems and manufacturing sites. So, uh both sides would obviously be preparing again because there is much trust deficit. Uh so, uh they are preparing again, both sides, in case the war starts again or for future uh clash clashes.

[00:04:49]Um this is uh uh uh the situation in Iran where there were there can be seen uh several kilometers long queues, and the people are waiting in queues because they want the petrols and the diesel to be filled into the cars as uh um there is the huge shortage um of oil.

[00:05:22]And petrol, so people are standing in long queues in Iran waiting for uh the this to be uh uh waiting for the cars to be filled with the fuel.

[00:05:37]Let's move to the part of the Strait of Hormuz and discuss the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:05:45]And before that, uh I'll show you what the European Commission president says. She said that the courtesy of Al Jazeera news, we need a deal that truly de-escalates the conflict, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and guarantees toll-free full freedom of navigation.

[00:06:08]Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. So, basically, Ursula von der Leyen says that she's the president of European European Commission, and she says that the Strait of Hormuz should be fully functional with no toll fees for vessels to pass, and Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

[00:06:31]And she calls it these the must-haves in the deal, and this would in her opinion with the deal that would truly de-escalate the conflict.

[00:06:45]Moving to the uh point of what is in it there for the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz uh will The Strait of Hormuz has been economic choke point. Uh The Strait of Hormuz has been the economic choke point in this war.

[00:07:15]Iran's blockade on regional oil and natural gas shipments transit routing through the Strait has triggered a catastrophic global supply anxieties.

[00:07:30]Um >> [snorts] >> The reopening clause of the Strait regarding the Strait is a baseline condition of the US-led framework is the immediate uh unhindered unhindered reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global maritime shipping.

[00:07:52]A major diplomatic narrative battle has emerged regarding who controls the waters. While US officials state the deal guarantees opening international transit, Iran's state-line media outlets such as Fars News Agency have fired back asserting that the Strait of Hormuz will remain strictly under Iranian maritime management and sovereign oversight.

[00:08:22]With that What is the operational reality of the Strait of Hormuz?

[00:08:36]The threat of asymmetric warfare remains high.

[00:08:42]The threat of asymmetric warfare remains high. Even if commercial shipping resumes insurance risk premiums will remain elevated due to the sheer volume of naval mines, anti-ship missiles, and IRGC fast attack crafts stationed along the Iranian coastlines.

[00:09:08]The nuclear issue, let's discuss the nuclear issue. Notably, Iran's nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium have been intentionally omitted from the current framework text. The uranium and deadlock is there and for that, deferred negotiations are preferred. Recognizing that nuclear issue is an immediate deal breaker a and negotiators have deferred this topic.

[00:09:42]And the framework specifies that a dedicated two-month negotiation stack focusing solely on Iran's nuclear program will begin after the initial ceasefire takes place.

[00:09:55]Um Iran is utilizing its enriched uranium stockpile as its primary geopolitical leverage, uh refusing to surrender its nuclear progress under immediate military terrorists.

[00:10:12]Uh conversely, Western intelligent and intelligence and IAEA remain highly alarmed. Uh highly alarmed recent kinetic strikes during the war, including fragments which hit the Bushehr nuclear power plant, uh highlight how dangerously close the conflict has um come to a critical atomic infrastructure.

[00:10:47]Impact So, what would be the impact on global maritime trade, fuel, and oil prices?

[00:10:54]Uh let me share you that. And before moving to that, the impact of global oil, fuel, and prices, um uh global uh oil prices, uh before that, we have an update. And what is the take of Israeli politicians on this deal? Let me share you the quote of Benny Gantz, who's the Israeli um politician. And he says that the deal in Iran a deal in in is basically unacceptable, and it should This is exactly what Benny Gantz said.

[00:11:36]It is absolutely forbidden under any circumstances to accept the ceasefire in Lebanon as part of deal with Iran. It is impossible to accept a situation in which just as the Lebanese public begins to internalize that Hezbollah is arming it, Israel will allow it to become Lebanon's shield. The villages in southern Lebanon are situated just hundreds of meters from Metula, Shlomi, and Migdal and Israel has an obligation to protect its residents regardless of any external factor.

[00:12:11]Accepting to the ceasefire in Lebanon as a part of the deal with Iran would be strategic mistake that we will pay for years to come. This is exactly the case where Israel needs to say to the US, "No."

[00:12:25]Uh so, Benny Gantz is saying that uh Iran-US nuclear deal will be only acceptable as if Lebanon is not part of that deal. But what is happening here is right now is Iran is pushing hard to include Lebanon in the ceasefire as well to which uh um Iran is pushing hard for uh Iran is pushing hard for Lebanon to be the part of the deal as well uh which um Benny Gantz the politician of Israel says that Israel should say no to it and should not be should not be the part of this deal Lebanon should not be the part of this deal. So, we'll see whether Lebanon would be the part of the deal or not um before that and let's see shippers forced the global maritime trade was during the wartime reality was shippers were forced to bypass the Persian Gulf container shipping sky container shipping rate skyrocketed massive condition at alternative global reports were seen. But now it is returning to gradual normalization as uh It is returning to global normalization.

[00:13:53]And the Brent crude experienced massive risks premiums in the war but immediate de-escalation will always be the good news which will bring oil prices down.

[00:14:04]Higher refining costs and localized fuel shortages were seen across Europe and Asia due to choked LNG and oil shipments uh during the wartime but while and now we'll see we'll see when the deal gets finalized that >> [snorts] >> the crude prices will drop and consumer prices will take time to stabilize due to backlog logistics.

[00:14:31]Let's move to the part which we discuss on the Lebanon front and the attack on the uh Erbil. The Lebanon part and uh the attack on uh Erbil.

[00:14:48]Uh let me show you the footages of the attack which happened last [snorts] night on uh Erbil.

[00:14:58]And I'll provide you the details of that attack which was carried out on uh Erbil by Iran. Uh um Let me show you those visuals and we'll provide you the analysis on what the situation is developing and why that attack was carried out.

[00:15:20]Uh this was uh the attack last night, which was carried out on Erbil.

[00:15:27]Uh >> [snorts] >> the conflict cannot be understood as bilateral US-Iran issue. It is highly integrated uh multi-front war involving Iran's axis of resistance. The border between Hezbollah The border between Israel and Lebanon has seen immense escalation. Israel's campaign in Lebanon has targeted over a thousands of Hezbollah's operative and command centers, uh including IRGC's Quds Force headquarters in Lebanon.

[00:15:58]Uh despite massive damage, Hezbollah has maintained high volume rocket missile strikes into northern and southern Israel. But this footage is of Erbil.

[00:16:07]Uh these strikes were carefully coordinated with Houthi drone launches from Yemen to oversaturate uh uh Israeli uh defenses and impose maximum psychological stress on the civilians.

[00:16:21]This was the strategy.

[00:16:22]>> [snorts] >> Uh the framework agreement success hinges heavily on whether Iran can or wants to uh restrain Hezbollah's active up front line.

[00:16:36]Iraq has routinely served as a secondary uh place where kinetic theater. Pro-Iranian militias and direct Iranian missiles units have conducted frequent frequent uh heavy strikes against US strategic assets in Iraqi Kurdistan. And this is one of the visuals I am showing to you about what happened in Erbil. Uh let me take out some more footage is for attack on Erbil.

[00:17:08]Uh the situation uh Al-Harir airbase in Erbil uh was also uh, targeted. Uh, uh, has been a focal point of these drones and ballistic uh, missiles. Al Harir airbase, uh, which was targeted has been the focal [snorts] point of uh, uh, uh, of uh, of the of the of drones and ballistic missile assaults. This is These are the footages from Erbil.

[00:17:45]Uh, I have these for you.

[00:17:47]Check out these.

[00:17:49]Uh, and these attacks are designed to increase the political and physical cost of the US presence in uh, Iraq even as diplomatic talks progress in venues like Islamabad, uh, um, Iran uh, Iranian uh, backed Iraqi groups uh, continue targeting areas like Baghdad International Airport and uh, uh, uh, Erbil to signal that a ceasefire on paper will not automatically guarantee the safety of US personnel if Iran's uh, broader regional conditions are uh, unmet.

[00:18:36]So, this was uh, the footages from Erbil which was targeted uh, last night by uh, uh, Iranian missiles and uh, Iraqi based militias uh, supporting Iran and uh, this was it for this livestream and please do share, like, and subscribe.

[00:19:02]And do take part in the comments as well and do share, like, and subscribe the channel.

[00:19:08]Uh, we'll update you once uh, we have some more news. Take care of yourselves and thank you.