Roqe Ep. 441 - IRAN RISES - Why the Prolonged Pause? - Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, Lisa Daftari

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[00:00:00]Now the question begs why would the United States give them the gift of this pause and the gift of again claiming victory if this war should end?

[00:00:08]>> President Trump won wanted to win this war as a lowcost war. um this Islamic Republic regime is um not just weakened but it's a country in crisis right >> I actually think this regime has played out all the scenarios their situation room has been going on for 47 years and they know every single play >> 10% reduction in oil capacity production down the line it doesn't matter for a government that is fighting for survival that doesn't matter >> one of the things I like to say about Donald Trump is that he um He says crazy [ __ ] Um, >> are we allowed to say that?

[00:00:47]>> That part's Yeah, we're allowed to say that. That part might be obvious, but but there's usually or often I find some truth in in the in the crazy stuff that he says. In this street fight, we have someone as described and the other side is worried that it his shirt is not torn in in this street fight. So, I think this imbalance >> is is quite severe. If if a historian writes about regime change in Iran, it will start in 1999, not 2026. I think all of this has worked to tell the world about what the Iranian people want, how they are so different from their government, and what they want going forward to build their own nation.

[00:01:31]Hi there. Rest in peace, brother. Our boys finally mastered the game. and to you and the fellow Iranian gunners that we've lost, we won't forget your name.

[00:01:41]Look, I'm not going to lie, this has been an epic week to be in the Arsenal Corps. After 22 years, our beloved gunners finally lifted the Premier League trophy once more. And I'm not really someone who fears the need to relate everything back to Iran, the regime, the atrocities of the last 47 years. It's okay to just celebrate your football team taking home the prize. We don't have to see everything through traumatized eyes. But in the last few days, I've not been able to stop thinking about Orf Jaffer Zade. Arif was a fellow devoted Arsenal fan. Like me, he was someone who probably thought Declan Rice was the man. Like me, his moods went up and down with every Arsenal attack. Probably invested in believing this would be our season.

[00:02:25]Probably knew the particular loyalty required to support AFC for any reason.

[00:02:30]And then this week, the reward. Finally, Arsenal back on top of English football.

[00:02:35]Except RF never got to see it. Because while many of us were debating formations and celebrating victories and having a laugh, RF was living inside a country where an Arsenal jersey became part of his final photograph. A 34year-old from Rasht shot by forces of the Islamic Republic during the January protests, reportedly still wearing his arsenal shirt when he died. And there's something about that detail that has been with me all week because he doesn't feel distant. Not at all. He feels familiar, like one of us. A gunner standing tall. An arsenal supporter who probably dreamed of one day visiting the Emirates. A guy who wanted freedom, dignity, and a normal life, too. A fellow Iranian who despised this regime as much as many of us do. And maybe that's the most painful part. The regime doesn't just kill protesters. It kills football fans and music lovers and dreamers. Human beings who should still be here arguing about the Kaiosaka and singing for their club. Orf should have been alive this week. Alive to celebrate the victory of our side, alive to wear this Arsenal shirt with pride. Instead, his family placed the Arsenal crest onto his gravestone. So this week, I've been celebrating Arsenal winning the league every night. But somewhere between the joy and the noise, I kept thinking about my Iranian bro in red and white. Rest in peace, Harf Jaffer Zad, a fellow gunner, a fellow Iranian, and a fellow freedom lover, too. Our boys did it, my brother.

[00:04:11]This one's for you.

[00:04:18]It's May 21st, 2026. This is crook.

[00:04:43]Well, hi there. Welcome, welcome to episode 441 of Rook Iran Rises. I'm Gian Gomesi. Hello to you from Toronto, Canada.

[00:04:54]Hope you're doing okay wherever you're tuning in from around the world. This is the 37th episode in our Iran rises series. This one entitled Why the Prolonged Pause. Now, once again, in events inside Iran and around the Iranian diaspora are moving at a break neck speed. So, we should note that we are recording this episode at approximately 3:30 p.m. Eastern time here in Toronto on this Thursday, May 21st. This is around midnight in Iran and and as always we're sharing perspectives and conversations as upto-date as we can, as upto-date as humanly possible. Just before we get going, if you appreciate our independent programming and you want to support us, you can do so on YouTube. If you're on a podcast platform right now and you don't know that you can actually watch the show, you can on YouTube. And if you like what we do as alternative independent media, just hit the super thanks button on YouTube and you can contribute to keeping Rook alive and thriving. Any amount is appreciated. We do appreciate you always.

[00:05:56]All right, coming up on this 441st episode of Rook, why the prolonged pause. So weeks after the ceasefire officially began, the uncertainty, as you know, continues. There's no full-scale war. There's also no meaningful peace. And there's no clear deal. And for millions of Iranians, especially those hoping for regime change, this strange in between moment has become increasingly difficult to read. So what exactly is happening right now? Is the Islamic Republic regrouping and buying time? Is the West quietly negotiating behind closed doors? Is Donald Trump preparing for another phase of confrontation or trying to avoid one?

[00:06:37]And if the regime appears weakened, why does it still seem to be standing? On this edition, I'm joined by our two quite fabulous returning guests. Bozar may shaped in Washington DC, Lisa Daftdi in Los Angeles for a deeper look at the prolonged pause, and what this uneasy silence may actually tell us about the future of the Islamic Republic, the position of the West, and the fate of the Iranian people caught in the middle of all of this. All right, let's get to it. Okay, Stellar Law. Today's episode of Rook is brought to you in part by Stellar Law. Stellar Law is a boutique litigation firm based in Toronto, founded and led by Rana Nosat Panov. The firm represents businesses and professionals in commercial and contractual disputes, particularly where relationships have broken down. Hello, Iranians. And the consequences are significant. Stellar laws practices grounded in careful analysis and strategic decision-making. Much of the work involves contract disputes.

[00:07:35]shareholder conflicts and complex business disagreements that require both legal precision and practical judgment.

[00:07:42]Now, Rana and her team are known for approaching these matters with clarity and focus and a deep understanding of what is at stake for their clients. So, for those navigating serious disputes with real commercial impact, check out Stellar Law at stellarlaw.ca.

[00:07:59]stellarlaw.ca. Thanks again to Rana and her team at Stellar Law. If you are Iranian, do note that Stellar Law operates in both English and in Persian if you prefer to deal in Persian.

[00:08:11]All right, let me tell you about Fam Luxy. This episode of Rook is brought to you with the support of Fam Luxy. Fam Luxy is a cultural fashion platform dedicated to supporting and showcasing independent Iranian artists. So in a time when Iranian voices and creativity face unprecedented challenges, as you know, Fam Luxy stands as a bridge bringing the spirit of Iranian craftsmanship to the world. Every creation tells a story of art and culture and individuality. By choosing Fam Luxy, you are supporting independent artists and meaningful design. In 2023, Fam Luxy introduced its exclusive collection, Glory Days, at New York Fashion Week. This features the King and Queen line, an artistic tribute to 25,500 years of Iranian imperial heritage and the timeless strength of our culture. These are majestic pieces, t-shirts, uh, dress apparel, hoodies.

[00:09:06]You need to get one of these items if you have not done so already. And you can find them at famluxy.com.

[00:09:12]famluxy.com is the place to go. Thanks to Famluxy for honoring heritage, amplifying art, and standing with Iranians.

[00:09:21]All right, let's get to our panel. Lisa Daftdi is an Iranian-American foreign policy analyst and journalist with a focus on Middle Eastern policy and counterterrorism. She regularly provides on-air analysis and exclusive reporting on key regional and global developments.

[00:09:36]She is the founder and editor and chief of the foreign desk, an international news and US foreign policy publication.

[00:09:43]Lisa joins us from Los Angeles today.

[00:09:46]And Bergmeir Shahedin is an Iranian British journalist and documentary filmmaker. He began his career working for various newspapers and magazines in Tehran. He joined the BBC in London as an editor in 2008. He then became a reporter at Reuters covering Iran's nuclear negotiations, international sanctions, and global energy markets. In 2023, he won the National Press Club's Irwin M. Hood Award for diplomatic correspondence. He's now the head of digital news service at Iran International and has a brand new book out uh that he has co-authored entitled Stolen Revolution: Betrayal and Hope in Modern Iran. Bozerg Shafedin joins us from Washington DC. Hello to you both.

[00:10:27]>> Great to be with you.

[00:10:29]>> Hi, thanks for having us.

[00:10:30]>> Always a pleasure to have you both on and particularly on this topic. We've titled this episode why the prolonged pause and I can't think of a couple of people that aren't better from an Iranian perspective especially to to come to on this question. So um f first and foremost have either of you or both of you been surprised by the fact that the the war has not already begun again or that a deal has not been made yet? In other words, have you been surprised by the prolonged pause? To you first, Lisa.

[00:11:03]Great to be with you Jean uh and Bzer Mer to you as well. I actually applaud you for choosing two not only analysts but people who also have a foot in journalism and in the media uh for this topic because that is exactly the reason why we have so much of a muddled uh picture or kind of narrative about what's going on right now is because of the media. every single day is a roller coaster of understanding of um different rumors and different assessments and conclusions that are drawn based on those rumors. Uh am I surprised?

[00:11:38]Absolutely not. We have to remember who we're dealing with here. The Iran regime is masterful at playing out the clock.

[00:11:45]That is their number one weapon. They are just utilizing that weapon at this moment in terms of buying out uh the clock, buying out time. And remember one thing, it's not just that they're buying out time. What does that time mean? Mere survival for this regime means victory.

[00:12:03]And that is what they were hoping for when we got the the initial pause in April. That that they were hoping that the Trump administration wouldn't have the appetite to go back to kinetic war.

[00:12:14]that that this would be the off-ramp that they are looking for. And what did they do in the meantime? They shifted the arena of war. We're no longer talking about the US's strategic imperative, which was no nuclear weapons, zero tolerance, zero threshold.

[00:12:28]But now we're not even talking about nuclear weapons. We are talking about Hormuz. We're talking about whether or not we will go back to war. We're talking about deals that will actually enrich the Mullas and make them better than they were before the war. So, of course, this pause has helped them tremendously. Now, the question begs, why would the United States give them the gift of this pause and the gift of again claiming victory if this war should end uh with a >> Let me pause you there then. I'll come back to you on that question. But that's a that's an important opening that you've just given us. Uh and you're right that the narrative has shifted uh um and and it's certainly not there's absolutely no talk of the tens of thousands of young people who were killed in Iran. uh just a short few um weeks or months ago now either. So bos may just just on this opening question of are you surprised by this prolonged pause you say what >> to me it's not about a a long pause I think the way I see it is just maybe the war ended too early you know so I think we can look at this question from two angle two angles I think the first question is that I I understand that why many people are asking why we are dealing with such a long pause. But I think if we want to go to the core cause of it cause of it the war ended too early and I think Iran interpreted that as weakness and it used this pose to regroup and rearm and the US lost the momentum that it had gained at the beginning to have a like a consequential change in in in in the Islamic Republic.

[00:14:21]Why Trump ended the war too early? I think many things went wrong during the military campaign. I think the most important factor was that much tabo survived the the initial strike at the compound of the supreme leader. I think to me it's just still surprising that how the initial attack that targeted the top leaders of the Islamic Republic and the military commanders and it successfully eliminated Ali and many of the IRGC commanders. It failed to eliminate Moshab and Moshab was in the same com compound as his father was. So if he was not the target or if he was the target and the the the campaign failed, that was a very very big mistake. and his survival allowed the supreme the the the the Islamic Republic to create a sense of continuity and also it allowed the it it it it stopped the sense of fragmentation and division in the Islamic Republic that I think the US forces and Israeli had counted on.

[00:15:31]That's one of the reasons that I think the campaign went wrong. There are many other factors. We know we know that maybe US and Israelis overestimated the power of a Kurdish insurgency inside the country and also I think one of the most important factor is that President Trump won wanted to win this war as a lowcost war. It wanted to keep the cost to the minimum to the US forces and also to Iranian infrastructures and Iranian people. And while the Islamic Republic had no uh he was it was not holding back. It wanted to cause maximum damage to the civilians and infrastructure of the region. So having all these factors, I think it was clear for uh US and Israel that the campaign wasn't going forward as planned. So they had to pause it too early before the whole military campaign matures enough to use it as a pressure to reach a deal.

[00:16:38]>> So very quickly, what what does pausing it too early um what are the implications of that in terms of whether it restarts or not? I mean, how does that affect this prolonged pause? Then >> in my view, the war will never go back to a fullscale war. It might erupt at any second, but it I think the US will strike a few locations only to bring Iran back to the negotiation table. I think the fullcale war as they had planned didn't go forward as they expected.

[00:17:12]>> Wow. You you said a lot there. I mean the part about Moshtaba is fascinating because I we've had a number of people come on this program over the last two or three months who've made the case pretty much to make the case that the Mushta is irrelevant that it doesn't uh you know so he's sort of a placeholder a cardboard placeholder that but but you make an interesting case that that he did in his name and in his what he represents provide some sort of continuity. Lisa I'm curious to get your reaction to all of what Bozo has just said. So, um I'll start with the N first because I agree that um we will probably if we go back to kinetic uh um action.

[00:17:51]It would be targeted and limited in scope. Um I actually I I want to flip this a bit. I think the war ended prematurely, but not because of circumstances on the ground in Iran, but because of circumstances on the ground in the United States. I do think that Donald Trump was under a tremendous amount of pressure. We are not where we were as a country, you know, after 9/11 where everyone was like, "Go get them."

[00:18:11]you know, we're not there. And this was this war wasn't explained well to the American public. Again, it goes back to the media. Uh, and you know, when you ask the average American, even Trump supporters, you know, do you understand why this is a global imperative that we diminish this threat? They don't understand. They couldn't even tell you, you know, one reason as to why this regime has to go. Uh, and I think that's a failure. That's a huge failure of of everyone, you know, whether it's strategic communications from the White House, going down to the media, going down to obviously the opposition in this country against this particular president as a personality, not as a political party. I think that's the main issue. We're also coming up on the World Cup and the midterms and and and the regime knows this and they played out the time perfectly for that. The way that the timeline of this war was designed from the very beginning is that it had multiple offramps. So that Donald Trump, the same president who campaigned on no forever wars, on no long wars, on no presence in the Middle East, on not having to pull the weight for the UN or for NATO or for OPEC or any one of our partners, that we would uh withdraw from all of that. He had these offramps so that we could see the markets bounce back, that we would see oil prices bounce back and we did see all of that.

[00:19:24]Now, the issue is at this very moment, I just don't think there's an appetite around Donald Trump to go back to war because of those consequences because we're going into the summer and people want to go on vacation and the gas prices are so high because airline tickets are so high again, people want to plan their their their summer break, whatever it may be, because of the fact that we're going towards uh the uh the World Cup and that's something that we want to showcase uh in the United States because Donald Trump went and sat down with China and believes that he had a very beneficial uh meeting. He wants everything to just calm down. Now, uh going back to Moaba, I I actually think this regime has played out all the scenarios. Their situation room has been going on for 47 years and they know every single play. I don't think that Israel and the United States were illprepared. I think it just is taking much longer. And the one one thing I do think that uh Donald Trump or BB should have decided to do is to continue with the elimination of leadership. Not just first tier but keep going down the list IRGC bas. That's where we would see a flip in the script. That's where we would see mass defection. That's where we would see people whether they're Artesh or Basie or IRGC say hey it's not worth it. I I'm out of here or join the people. and then we would have more weapons, more strategy, more organization with the people. So, I do think that there are a few things to be looking at here, but I do believe that the landscape here in the United States is a huge part of this. So, um, Lisa, it sounds like based on your first answer and based on what you've just said, um, you are intimating at the very least that this pause benefits and I think Bozo, you you as well are intimating that this pause, uh, whether it be the permanent pause or a a pause before some targeted strikes or a pause before a full-on war again, that this pause benefits the leadership of of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Would that be correct, Lisa? pause. I think this this pause, I'm actually writing a piece on this. This pause benefits the narrative, right? The narrative warfare. The regime is is is the master of narrative warfare. And here on our soil as well, look at the college kids that are praising Hamas and Hezbollah. You don't need to look any further than that.

[00:21:39]>> Yeah.

[00:21:39]>> When you look at that narrative, it's for them to get people to rally around the flag. It's not going to work with the majority of Iranian people. It's for them to again claim victory that the big Satan and little Satan could not defeat them. And for us here, it's the narrative of look when we stop this war whenever that may be. If we go back to war, if we stop this war now or in two months or in 3 months, look at how quickly the prices uh re restabilize and we can have that happen immediately after any any pause. I don't the the part where it's it's going to get very tricky is that the the regime isn't even playing along to Donald Trump trying to give them the off-ramp of a deal, right?

[00:22:18]So, they keep coming back with a list of demands that there's just way too much daylight. The the United States is not going to accept. JD Vance, somebody who we know, the the vice president who we know is not truly in favor of this war.

[00:22:32]He's not. He just keeps saying no nuclear weapons. No nuclear weapons. we will not take a deal that's bad and we will not take a deal that allows them to have nuclear weapons. I don't know how they're going to really reconcile uh this this disparity between the two sides and to actually have you know some sort of conclusion where Donald Trump looks like a winner and obviously the the regime is going to tout you know victory as well. That's where it gets a bit tricky but I don't I don't I'm not 100% set on or or believe that there will be a deal. I do think that Donald Trump, as much as he's in favor of a deal, is not in favor of a bad deal. And he does know the difference between the two.

[00:23:10]>> One of the things I like to say about Donald Trump is that he um he says crazy [ __ ] Um >> we allowed to say that.

[00:23:18]>> That part's Yeah, we're allowed to say that. That part might be obvious, but but there's usually or often I find some truth in in the in the crazy stuff that he says. And so he said at one point, well, you know, we've got all the time in the world, you know, uh, and that was bravado, but uh, there's part of that that I mean, isn't there a good case to be made that, um, this Islamic Republic regime is, um, not just weakened, but it's a country in crisis, right? Um, I mean, before all of this, before the the the nent revolution, before January, uh, um, there's a economic crisis that's gotten worse. There's a devalued uh uh currency. There's a electricity bankruptcy. There's water bankruptcy. Uh there's now an isolated country. Doesn't have the Arab partners anymore. There's China waffling. I mean, so so um isn't there a case to be made that this is actually a problem for the Islamic Republic too as long as um this goes on and there's ambiguity around the strait of Hormuz Bermir.

[00:24:27]President Trump looks at Iran war as a waiting game. So waiting game usually happens when one side feels stronger than the other side. I think waiting game the the classic example is that when a a fox stands outside a hole waiting waiting for a rabbit to to to comes out and in these in this case they are waiting to see which one will blink first. But I think in the eyes of the Islamic Republic, it's not a waiting game. They see that uh I don't know if if I going to give an example from the animal kingdom, it it might be like >> more animals, >> more animals. It might be like a buffalo and a lion that at the end they both of the them just give up and they know that none of them can eliminate the other without going through severe damage. So they at the end they they just give give up the fight.

[00:25:23]>> Look, there is no doubt that the Islamic Republic has been weakened after after the war. But I think the definition of weakness in the eyes of the western governments is very different than the in the eyes of the Islamic Republic which is looking for survival. The waiting game in the eyes of the US administration is that let's create a blockade that will fill up the storage uh oil stoages. It will have a detrimental impact on Iran Iran's oil wells production capacity. It will create um economic hardship for the Islamic Republic. That doesn't matter. Like 10% reduction in oil capacity production down the line, it doesn't matter. For a government that is fighting for survival, that doesn't matter. And the hardship on Iranian on Iranians, that doesn't matter either. It's just that doesn't mean that the Islamic Republic will collapse. We saw that in Iraq under Saddam Hussein after the Gulf War and under the severe sanctions many Iraqis were hungry and starving but that that didn't lead to the collapse of Saddam Hussein. So the Islamic the US government is waiting for the Iranian side to blink because in its mentality as Lisa correctly mentioned there is a lot of pressure on US president because they believe if 20 25 points the interest rate goes up that's the end of the world and that we are talking about that level of pressure but in Iran the price of chicken increased 20% week on week and uh that doesn't matter for the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Republic is not that much concerned from the pressure economic pressure built from the inside. So I don't think it would blink.

[00:27:27]>> But so but but if it's feeling uh emboldened or greater sense of security than it would have say two months ago uh for its survival, its existence, why is the internet still shut off? Right.

[00:27:41]>> Both of >> that. No, absolutely. Because I think the part a part of it is of course controlling the narrative. So the narrative and control of the public spaces is very important for for the Islamic Republic as you have seen how they are occupying streets in Tehran and other cities every night. and they make a show by showing that we own the public space. They will do the same in virtual space as well that they believe that they own it and they will allow only people that belongs to that camp to come and and voice their concern. I I would say that I would categorize that more as Iran's the sorry the Islamic Republic's effort to control the public narrative of the war.

[00:28:32]Lisa, >> I actually think the and I've built my career around this for 20 years is the biggest Achilles heel of the regime is actually the people and that threat of a grassroots movement coming out onto the streets. How did they come into power?

[00:28:46]Look at 1979. Obviously, foreign intervention and also the masses or that the optics of masses coming out onto the streets. They wouldn't have killed 30 to 50,000 Iranians in January if they didn't believe that that they were actually a threat. What I think the world needs to understand is this regime wants to survive but they are not they are not martyrs of Islam or radical Islam. They use this ideology for greed to stay in power and they will do whatever it takes if this war ends and they need to stay in power and they will they they may look the other way when they see a woman not wearing a hijab or they might start killing in in in in hundreds of thousands again. And I hope I'm I'm very wrong about that. But they will do whatever it takes. Loosen the noose, tighten the noose, whatever it takes. They have done for 47 years. Do they actually care day in and day out to Buzzer May's point about people suffering? No. But at the same time, are they threatened by the fear that people may come out onto the streets in a second act? Very much so. So, I do think this this is an inevitability because the status quo cannot continue in Iran.

[00:29:58]It's reached its boiling point. Uh you don't ask for foreign uh missiles to hit your soil if you're not desperate or at the point of coming out onto the streets knowing that you may lose your life if you are not desperate for the basic freedoms that the Iranians are asking for. So, will they come back out onto the streets? I do think it's inevitable that they will. I just don't know when that is. So, and I've said this many times. I know it's so difficult to be patient in all this, particularly as Iranians are suffering with no internet, with the threat of death, uh, persecution, no freedoms, the cost of living, no jobs, etc. But revolutions don't happen in 75 days. They happen over time. And I do think that this war was just another uh, you know, kind of chapter in all of this. I don't know what the next chapter will be, but I do think that the final stanza, whenever that will be, will be written by the Iranian people in some capacity, whether it's just to to take over at the last, you know, part of this or to come back out onto the streets in in a wholesale fashion the way we've seen uh over the last few rounds of protests, whether it was over Masa Amini, the green revolution, even the student revolutions of 1999. If if a historian writes about regime change in Iran, it will start in 1999, not 2026. I think all of this has worked to tell the world about what the Iranian people want, how they are so different from their government and what they want going forward to build their own nation.

[00:31:19]>> You you've both talked about um uh the pressures on uh Trump, his administration, the US, the West um that come from all kinds of external uh um ideas external to the to to to simply the the the conflict in Iran. Um and uh I've thought about that in terms of whether this prolonged pause is going to become a very very prolonged pause. Um it does occur to me that it's very difficult to prosecute a war a bigger one a bigger version than of of what than than what we saw in March.

[00:31:54]um while you're hosting the World Cup.

[00:31:58]>> Um I mean it might seem trite to some people but it literally is the biggest tournament in the world that everybody watches and and Trump se seems like in the US wants to seize this opportunity.

[00:32:09]It's being hosted in America in in Canada and in Mexico uh to seize this opportunity for um for good for for promotion in a positive way not a negative way. Of course, there's going to be all kinds of things to untangle when you with that even with with respect to Iran as well. And we we'll be talking about it, which flag gets flown, who which teams uh um get protested against etc. But but that starts in less than 3 weeks or in about 3 weeks. Um is it realistic that that is going to have some say in in the decision that is made to with respect to what to do with Iran?

[00:32:47]from Bagu.

[00:32:49]>> Uh definitely I think the optics of this war is very important for for Donald Trump and I think the the amount of pressure that they they they will take would highly depend on how they can sell the war. Look, there is this like example in the Iranian culture that there are some thugs, street thugs that when they want to start a war, sorry, they carry machetes and then when they want to start a street fight, the first thing they do, they just they they cut themselves.

[00:33:23]>> That sends a message to the the the rival that look, I'm not holding back.

[00:33:29]Just just be be careful. So the Iran US war is like that like on one side you have someone who doesn't hold back to cause any amount of damage to its own people and neighboring countries and infrastructures and the other side is holding back because it wants to keep the cost of war as low as possible economically, politically and militarily. So in this street fight we have someone as described and the other side is worried that it his shirt is not torn in in this street fight. So I think this imbalance >> is is quite severe.

[00:34:11]>> An analogy without a fox or a buffalo I'm impressed a chicken meets a a zebra.

[00:34:22]I appreciate the I do appreciate the analogy. Lisa, do you want to answer that question with respect to particularly the World Cup or or those external events?

[00:34:32]>> Yeah, I think you know Donald Trump isn't isn't a war president and I know it it's difficult for people to understand that. He wants to deal with his ballroom. He wants to go to China with all the pleasantries. He wants to go to the World Cup and tout you know what a wonderful uh country he has turned the United States into. So this is basically, you know, a stain right now that he needs to wrap up in a way that either puts it again on pause so that we can pick up. I think he's actually done a decent job at at maintaining some sort of deterrence and a finger on the trigger. So if if he needs to go back to war, that option is there. Uh locked and loaded as they say.

[00:35:10]Uh but I do think that you know time it's on our side because we can again go back to fighting. But I do think that the the regime knows that again with the timeline of the World Cup and then the the midterms and then the price of gas, the fact that this country is so divided in terms of the support of Donald Trump, all of that really uh adds to their their narrative victory. Uh and I think they're going to use it to their advantage. uh in the in the meantime I do think that that the sanctions and all the other times types of maximum pressure have to be uh employed here maximum pressure on the government and maximum support for the people that combination has to be the strategy going forward at least in the interim even if we do take a pause militarily >> but if the alternative to war or military action is is a deal there's a problem there for the US for Trump as well right because uh a deal what what looks like the deal that would be available. It's not just something that the Iranian people don't want because they don't want deals made with this regime. It's it's you know he already tore one up uh famously um that uh I mean is it are they going to be able to negotiate something better than that and from Trump's you know h how does h how much does this climb down um affect his his own um notable ego-driven image?

[00:36:36]>> Right. I mean, our position is not as as strong as it was when we were obviously fighting. That's why, you know, many of us have have said we shouldn't have stopped fighting. If he if he wanted to give diplomacy a chance, he could have started the conversation around diplomacy while still in military mode because you'll get obviously uh much more of a response that way. Look, we all know, everyone here and all Iranians uh understand uh that this this is never going to work. We're never going to get a deal. We're never going to get honesty. we're never going to get uh a a a true partner in the regime. We're just going to get more fraud, more duplicity and in what they have done. Uh and Donald Trump threw, you know, ripped up that deal for a reason. He knew who he was uh up against and who he was dealing with. Uh I don't think that has changed.

[00:37:22]What has changed again is that the the level of pressure that he is under and he will have to somehow again reconcile the people who are putting pressure on him to end this war to stabilize prices with having this once in a generational opportunity to end a global threat and to make the world the Europeans the UN um you know his own uh party the opposite party understand that this is not just uh better for the Middle East.

[00:37:51]It's not just something that we're doing for Israel. It's not just something we're doing for the Iranian people, but also for homeland security. The fact that this will affect us here. This this line has to be drawn. This has to be well communicated. Uh, and I don't think it's too late to communicate that. I just think it hasn't been done and hasn't been done well.

[00:38:07]>> Bo, did you say earlier that you thought that there's a a good chance that the a deal will be made? Did I Did I hear you say that?

[00:38:14]>> No, I don't think No, I don't think there's the high chance of a of a deal.

[00:38:19]I believe there's no high chance of a fullscale war but I don't think a deal it depends how we define a deal a deal like a deal better than the the JCPOA I doubt it look I think there's something has happened here what distinguished President Trump's Iran policy from all all other presidents was that he was looking at the Islamic Republic as one big problem and he believed that okay this should be resolved D first by changing the behavior of this back bad actor if not by the regime change. So that was the main reason he put aside uh the JCPOA the nuclear deal in 2018 because he believed that it only addressed one side of the problem which was the nuclear issue. Then he offered in 2018 multiple demands what was defined by a jumbo deal that we want to address everything from Iran proxies Iran's behavior Iran missile program Iran human right rights record in one single deal and that was the plan till till the war but now we see that US main focus is gradually shifting towards Iran's nuclear program again it's now the main focus is now to take out the 400 kilos of highlyenriched uranium and the other aspects of the Iran's behavior is being neglected. The US president is on is even looking at the straight of hormones not as the US problem. He has said that this is this we are not getting away from this straightforward mostly Arab countries, European countries, China and others should come and resolve that the moment you look at one part of the Islamic Republic problem not as a US problem. I think that's how the the fragmentation began. I think the problem is now that I feel in these neo negotiations the Islamic Republic is not being addressed as one big problem. So I think there might be a deal but the the deal will only address a fragment of the the the problems and it won't be longlasting.

[00:40:36]>> Agreed. Agreed.

[00:40:38]>> Um okay, a final question to both of you. Um your reflections on where the Iranian people uh sit in in all of this.

[00:40:48]um the most recent conversations or or interactions I've had with anybody inside Iran have they've said basically that they're in a you know they're in this moment of status they're they're in this waiting game you know to to see what happens next and in the meantime prices go up the situation gets worse there economically um they're living their lives but uh but uh you know in an internet blackout um where where do the Iranian people fit in all of this is is this the new normal now to I mean we there was the analogy of North Korea used you know they'll turn Iran into a new North Korea but it's kind of a military occupation there's an internet blackout does this just go on interminably so final thought to you Bermir and then final final thought to Lisa go ahead Bermir >> I think I think in the eyes of many Iranians the start of the war wasn't February 28th it was January 8 and 9 when Many Iranians, millions of Iranians came to the streets and President Trump said, "Go and occupy government buildings. The health is on its way." So for them that was the start of the war and since then they've been looking at the military buildup in the region and they've been hopeful that that will be the moment that they will see change in in their country. But I think gradually again they were put on the side and they they don't have the central role in this military campaign. I think one of the reasons that the war didn't go as planned by the US and Israel was that they did not mobilize the energy of Iranian people. Something that the war was built on from the start. How would they do that? How would they do that?

[00:42:48]>> I the way I see that US president when on February 28th he came and delivered the TV speech he said we started a military campaign. He called on Iranians to stay home because it's safe. It's not safe outside. And then after that the signal that US administration sent come the Israeli government were sending was that people should wait for the signal to come and many Iranians were waiting for the for that signal which never came. The US even started the military campaign by targeting not military targets but uh street checkpoints siege militias and police stations. That was the signal that we are paving the way for Iranians to come and finish the job. But at the middle of this military campaign, for whatever reason, something that we don't know, targeting the checkpoints also stopped.

[00:43:54]I think from that moment, it was clear that people will not have a role in the second phase of this military campaign.

[00:44:02]What has changed, I don't know. But my interpretation again goes back to the same example. You can't win a war if you are avoiding uh if you are trying to keep the cost to minimum. President Trump has said that repeatedly that it's very difficult for Iranians to come to the streets to fight without the arms and fight against a brutal regime. That's that's correct.

[00:44:29]But I think there was a potential there that was totally ignored by by the administration.

[00:44:37]>> Final word to you, Lisa. The Iranian people.

[00:44:41]>> You know, I think actually for the Iranian people, I'll I'll piggyback off of what said didn't even start in January, but it started last June, so almost a year ago during the 12-day war.

[00:44:50]Why? Because I think that was the first time that the Iranian people thought, well, the Israelis and the Americans may actually come to our aid. we may be able to partner up with them to finally defeat this regime. And I think that is what placed that first glimmer of hope or optimism in their hearts that this could actually happen. Now, fast forward to today, are many of those same people disappointed and disillusioned as to what happened or what where we're headed? Absolutely. But I do think given that it started last June and it stopped and we seeing another phase and then again, we may see another phase. I actually think this again the the fact that the majority of 90 million people across all provinces, even religious provinces, even the factions that have been traditionally aligned with the government are now disillusioned and now are very much disenchanted with this government is a sign that they cannot continue this way particularly after what happened in January. They will not be forgiven in the eyes of the Iranian people. So what does that mean? Will more have to be killed in in another phase? Will they have to do it alone? I don't know the answers to all of that.

[00:45:55]But what we do know is what the recipe or what the ingredients are that we have right now. We just don't know the recipe as to the fact that we have this boiling population that cannot go forward this way. They're too educated. They are too knowledgeable. They are too savvy and understand that they deserve what all their neighboring G Persian Gulf Arab states have that all the the world has whether it's internet or access to jobs access to freedoms to dress the way they want to speak the way they want to do what they want in life those are basic freedoms I don't think the Iranian people will survive under this regime or the regime won't survive under the Iranian people for long uh I just hope that they we can exploit or at least take advantage of the gains that have been made in this war that we move towards something that is much better for the Iranian people than a lame deal.

[00:46:44]The same lame deal that the president got out of. But I do believe that this president employed a strategy that was new. For decades, Democrats and Republicans both had Iran policy wrong.

[00:46:56]They went between very hawkish and very doubbish. Bomb Iran or let Iran get the bomb. But Donald Trump got involved because of the Iranian people. To Bozer's point, that is the third option.

[00:47:07]I actually talked in front of Congress in 2005 about what we called the third option and gave a speech on why invoking or or taking or taking the Iranian people as part of the strategy is the third option and why it would work because that is our best ally. It's still after 20 years remains the best ally for us is the Iranian people where whatever whatever strategy ends up ends up the next step in all of this whether it is diplomacy or military warfare or more of the sanctions and more of the pressure regardless of all of that I do believe the Iranian people have to be taken into account in this they are part of the equation and they will reclaim their country we just don't know when >> Lisa Dari Bzark may shared Uh, I appreciate you both. Uh, thank you. I know you're both busy. Always appreciate having you on the program. Thank you for doing this.

[00:48:00]>> Thank you.

[00:48:01]>> Thank you.

[00:48:15]>> All right. Big thanks to Lisa and Bozerg again. Uh it's always a pleasure to have each of them on the show and to have them together was quite a treat. I suspect that conversation will be something of a an eye openener for some of you, for some of us. Um they not not entirely um um positive, not entirely the flowery words that we want to hear about the future, but uh some some real reality dose of reality there from Lisa and Bozer. Um, and I think a very valuable conversation about the context of why we're where we are right now and what to expect in the coming two or three months. Now, if you have any comments about this and you want to let us know and maybe a letter that I can read on the air of a perspective that might be different from what we just heard, [email protected] is the place to find us.

[00:49:07][email protected].

[00:49:10]Of course, we read your comments that you place on our comment sections on uh on YouTube or on uh Instagram or uh on Apple Podcasts, Soundcloud, Spotify, Telegram, all of the places you can find Rook. Thank you. By all means, keep the conversation going to be continued. This is full time for Rook for today. I want to thank the amazing core team who put this show together twice a week during the Iran Rises series. Savvy Rohan, Super Parisa, and the photo and video queen Tina Farah. Special thanks as well to Smart Pega and talented Anita and Charming Keia and Methodical Cad.

[00:49:49]Uh, and thanks to the Rising Keon for your help. Thank you to all of you out there for supporting and sharing our content. Look, if you if you're not a subscriber already, it's easy to do.

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