"Warning For Small Bitcoin Investors! This Is Just Incredible!" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview

Ajouté : 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]Uh, and you're like, you don't understand what debasement does to the denominator.

[00:00:06]Because what you're allowing is price keeps going up because of debasement, the price of a stock, but the earnings grow with GDP growth.

[00:00:14]Unless you happen to be in the intelligence business, earnings are going vertical. I mean, don't forget the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of time.

[00:00:32]It's 3 years it's gone from zero to $100 billion in revenues.

[00:00:40]This is la-la land, and it did most of it last year alone.

[00:00:45]So, it went from like 10 billion to 100 billion in a year.

[00:00:49]Nothing has ever come close to this.

[00:00:58]>> Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance.

[00:01:01]With a major $2.26 billion institutional exit, the greatest sustained 2-week ETF outflow since January 2026, Bitcoin has plummeted to $74,300, close to its 50-day EMA support of $76,716.

[00:01:18]This has caused market sentiment to return to acute panic. At the same time, the market saw significant structural validations. SpaceX revealed a $1.9 billion Bitcoin treasury in its IPO filing, the largest corporate asset disclosure since MicroStrategy, and the SEC authorized Nasdaq to list cash-settled Bitcoin index options for the first time in history. A well-known billionaire investor made headlines by selling the majority of his Bitcoin because it didn't function as a hedge.

[00:01:46]This turbulent environment perfectly captures the fundamental principles of Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, who famously survived a 99.8% {dot}com crash before creating the world's leading corporate Bitcoin reserve. His current advice for navigating today's extreme fear territory is that volatility is vitality, advising investors to sell something else and remain unfazed by short-term liquidations because a 7-month correction is just a blink in a structural bull market.

[00:02:13]>> That's right. And you know, we're going to shift from the magic formula of GDP equals population growth plus debt growth uh plus productivity growth into the economic singularity version, which is AI plus robots plus humans and productivity is how much intelligence you can produce per unit of energy.

[00:02:36]>> Yeah.

[00:02:37]>> And then debt will get eroded away because GDP growth >> so strong >> will be so strong and inflation will be very subdued over the period of time that when you look back like the 1950s and '60s, you ended up going from 120% of debt to GDP down to about 10.

[00:02:55]And we'll do the same all over again.

[00:02:57]>> And no one's again I I haven't spoken to anybody who's thinking like that.

[00:03:02]>> No.

[00:03:02]And it's falsifiable and it is m- literally the whole framework is not putting a foot wrong on these big broad concepts. Sure, wiggle here and there, but it is happening. It is happening at scale and this whole funneling of the of the entire focus of the world is moving towards intelligence per unit of energy and that's the entire game.

[00:03:25]>> Yeah, we're leaving a world that's been dependent on capital and labor and moving into a world that's entirely dependent on compute and energy.

[00:03:34]And that's a very different world.

[00:03:37]>> And both of them are in Wright's Law.

[00:03:40]This is what people understand cuz they look at the oil price.

[00:03:42]But Wright's Law, if you look at the price of solar, wind, geothermal, everything, I mean these things are down 99.9%.

[00:03:51]Compute is doing the same. On top of Moore's law, it's like So, you've got both sides of the equation seeing exploding productivity.

[00:04:01]And therefore, the the intelligence side of the equation is accelerating.

[00:04:08]And this is the thing people don't understand cuz normally they're kind of fixed-ish. You know, you could build a certain amount of factories per you know, joule of energy. But when you're building intelligence, the [ __ ] thing is moving at Reed's law, which is Metcalfe's law squared. And we're seeing it. Every chart is doing this. Never in humanity has Reed's law ever been witnessed at scale and it's being witnessed in almost everything I look at right now.

[00:04:33]>> Well, this is what we were we were just talking about before we came on the call. I I don't again, was it 2 years ago? Was it a year ago? Was it 3 years ago? But we one of our clients had had had said to us that there's we talk too much about exponentials within our research and how do you define an exponential? And now literally everything that we're talking about is going exponential.

[00:04:52]I just had a >> I called it the exponential age when I first wrote about this bloody thing 4 years ago or 5 years ago.

[00:04:59]And here it is. I mean, it's just it's it's all happening and we're and the economic singularity, I said 2030 to 2032. I think 2030 is spot-on. I think we'll be straight into the economic singularity where nothing makes sense anymore uh in terms of how the economy works. I think we're hurtling straight into that. And then, you know, the only variant factor is US rates. If they get too high because something happens, then can that cause wobbles, problems? Yes.

[00:05:25]Will it cause a tightening cycle?

[00:05:28]I'm not sure.

[00:05:30]Uh it depends what's causing it.

[00:05:32]>> Well, no, because the hyperscalers don't or aren't really worried about the the Fed funds rate, right? It's it's not the old economy, the industrial economy that's been dependent on the cost of debt.

[00:05:43]Right? So, that's that means the the all of a sudden if if if if we're right that and not just the hyper the hyperscalers just say AI and CapEx become a larger part of GDP going forward, that means that the GDP drawdowns over time will become less cyclical.

[00:05:58]>> Yeah, until we've got to a build out that makes sense for the machine age and we're as you rightly pointed out, we're nowhere near that yet.

[00:06:08]We're not even close.

[00:06:09]We've barely started.

[00:06:13]>> Anyway.

[00:06:14]>> Amazing. Lots of Lots of ranting from us today, but um >> [clears throat] >> But it's look, what a time to be alive.

[00:06:19]That's all I can keep saying. So.

[00:06:22]>> And I've been saying I mean not now obviously, but I do think maybe in 6 months time or whatever it is as these things play out, you know, we we we should release the compute cycle article for everyone cuz it's really important for people to understand what's happening.

[00:06:40]You know, obviously it's at GMI now and it doesn't even need to be this year, but at some point people need to see >> No, I think I I think we'll try and release it earlier and maybe for everybody. Just cuz it's really important people understand all this framing. People are still struggling with the universal code framing.

[00:06:54]Um but everyone will understand over time.

[00:06:56]Like when we started the exponential age, everyone thought I was a total [ __ ] This universal code and now I'm right.

[00:07:04]Um you know, hopefully people saw that sweet presentation where I applied this to blockchain valuations. We applied it to the Hims valuation. We applied it to the Japanese um market situation. I've just applied it to um to war zone. I've just applied it to um the Trump uh China delegation.

[00:07:25]Mostly, it'll be right.

[00:07:27]>> No, and the only reason I'm saying at some point we should we should release it is because I I noticed my language is changing. You know what I mean? And I'm talking in a way that I haven't historically you know, spoken and and therefore it's important that people understand the concepts you and I are referring to in order to make sense of everything.

[00:07:45]>> know, you and I talked about this at the gym I went table over drinks late at night is like the business cycle is less important than it was.

[00:07:56]Not that it's not important, but it's not the dominant factor anymore.

[00:08:01]>> Mhm.

[00:08:01]>> The dominant factor is the secular accelerating trends and there's And that's the way it's going to be for a while, I think. But we'll see, you know, maybe we're wrong, we'll change our minds. We're not saying definitely, definitely, definitely, we're just saying as we see it, this is how we see it that the business cycle becomes less dominant uh of the factor than both liquidity plus the secular acceleration of of uh energy into units of intelligence.

[00:08:29]>> And this also explains you know, in relation to my last video update, and MIT, you know, there's been this big bifurcation, right, between You remember that famous chart from BCA, which we referred to, like AI-driven, you know, GDP, and then like everything that's more historically linked to like industrial production. And this is why, and I'll say it again, why Heinrich has been wrong for 3 years. Because he's using an old business cycle macro framework to call for a recession because certain areas of the economy are not quite recessionary, but at least subdued, which is why the ISM is doing this, because on one hand, you've got one part of the economy that's doing this, the other one you've got another part that's just doing this.

[00:09:11]So, the ISM is almost the average of that, but you can't actually see what's going on inside. But that old business cycle framework will never work again.

[00:09:19]>> No, and the other thing, and I was doing some work on this this morning, is people keep bringing up the Shiller P, the most expensive the market's ever been.

[00:09:29]Uh and like you don't understand what debasement does to the denominator.

[00:09:35]Because what you're allowing is price keeps going up because of debasement, the price of a stock, but the earnings grow with GDP growth.

[00:09:44]Unless you happen to be in the intelligence business, earnings are going vertical. I mean, don't forget the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of time.

[00:10:02]It's 3 years it's gone from zero to $100 billion in revenues.

[00:10:10]This is la-la land, and it did most of it last year alone.

[00:10:15]So, it went from like 10 billion to a hundred billion in a year.

[00:10:19]Nothing has ever come close to this.

[00:10:22]>> The disclosure by billionaire investor Mark Cuban that he sold the majority of his Bitcoin after realizing it did not serve as the anticipated short-term hedge against geopolitical unrest and a declining dollar during the Iran war was a major factor in the current surge of capitulation on social media. Michael Saylor's framework, which positions Bitcoin as an institutional store of value intended to outperform over multi-year horizons against structural fiat debasement rather than as a passive short-term hedge that automatically climbs during global liquidity shocks, where correlation one selling temporarily pulls down all risk assets, exposes a classic modeling error that is highlighted by this reactionary selling.

[00:11:00]As Bitcoin fell to $74,300, short-term traders and emotional investors panicked and liquidated positions. But, MicroStrategy took advantage of the correction by aggressively growing its treasury at a much lower average cost basis of $66,385, sticking to its core strategy of maximizing Bitcoin per share over a 7-year timeline rather than a 7-month timeline. In its mandatory SEC IPO filing, Elon Musk's aerospace giant SpaceX revealed a massive $1.29 billion dollar treasury position making the 340 billion dollar company the largest corporate hodler in history outside of MicroStrategy and solidifying Bitcoin's position as a crucial foundational asset for the developing global economy. This significant structural development powerfully validated this long-term institutional thesis.

[00:11:49]>> We said here that this was going to reverse because of the liquidity flows came back. That reversed as you said. I mean that was a historic like this one was as well. I mean there is no stopping this. Every time you have a correction and people are yelling at us saying it was all over. It was all over and then that happened.

[00:12:07]But you know we've had the same thing in I'll come back to stocks in a sec, but you know as you mentioned you know when everybody said that's it.

[00:12:18]The party's over. It's the end of the bull market. We can all go away. The market did exactly what we suggested which is come up and this was exactly to do and I think you you should show the chart chart that chart in a bit the one we looked at this morning you and I which is the US liquidity chart. I mean it's like it's [ __ ] perfect. Um so you know that seems to be playing out as expected. The liquidity flow is happening. It's all on track for what we expect.

[00:12:45]I still think crypto will outperform uh tech stocks uh at the next phase of the cycle. So I think that's pretty good. Um I won't go through most of these. The other chart I'm very closely following is Zcash um which has been a a great one and I think somewhere here we're going to be doing a another one of these kind of inverse head and shoulders continuation patterns. It comes down, breaks through next phase of acceleration.

[00:13:15]So I kind of like that one as well. Um going back to stocks as you said I mean Tesla's now I mean this wedge is going to break.

[00:13:28]>> Yeah.

[00:13:29]>> And when this wedge breaks, nobody's really prepared for this.

[00:13:33]Um and I so I still still think fundamentally, it's amazing.

[00:13:39]Rocket Labs has been rocket ship.

[00:13:42]And look, I get this is a very overvalued stock versus its revenues, but before the SpaceX IPO, the only way of playing the SpaceX IPO is owning this stock.

[00:13:53]And if I look at this rising wedge, if it breaks the top of this, which it looks like it's going to do, it's just going to go vertical for a while. And then I think we'll take profits into that because, you know, it's it's not making a lot of revenue right now. Um it's still losing money, everything else, I get it. And the SpaceX IPO will satiate the demand for, you know, space stocks, but this is the play.

[00:14:17]Um and I think it's going to go vertical.

[00:14:20]>> Well, the thing about that chart though that's crazy, I would just pulled up the GMI portfolio. We added Rocket Labs at like seven bucks originally.

[00:14:29]>> Yeah.

[00:14:29]>> And then it did a 300%, then we sold it, and then we bought it back at 18 $18.

[00:14:38]And now it's up six that position's up 600%.

[00:14:41]>> I get the new position.

[00:14:42]>> The new position.

[00:14:44]>> Yeah, so I don't know how much [ __ ] money we've made in that, but it's been preposterous. I don't know I don't think we've got it in pro anymore, but I >> Uh >> But we we've probably got it in exponentialist.

[00:14:55]>> Yeah, no we don't think we have it in pro.

[00:14:58]>> Um so Okay, I mean, that's been a killer.

[00:15:02]Obviously, Nvidia exploding again. It helps Jensen's in China. Clearly, he's going to be allowed to sell Nvidia chips to China. On what terms? We don't know.

[00:15:12]>> And when you look at this chart, I mean, if assuming that we're right, assuming the compute cycle article's right, I mean, we're the move has just started.

[00:15:22]>> Um it's just one of the wildest charts in history.

[00:15:25]I mean it had I mean I mean wow. I mean how do you buy that back in 2012?

[00:15:33]>> Yeah.

[00:15:34]>> What a move.

[00:15:35]>> Um then, you know, Intel has been doing I mean that chart was la-la land as well.

[00:15:43]Oracle, I think everyone's going to be wrong on Oracle. Oracle's probably going to go back to the new all-time highs.

[00:15:49]Uh semis that you showed tan circle good.

[00:15:53]Hims still really like this stock. I think people are still wildly underestimating the size of the market in in personalized medicine and um these compounding clinics and the technology that they've got and the sheer size of the um peptides market. So, yeah, it came down on earnings. I think it finds a base somewhere here. And as it goes through, it will form an inverse head and shoulders and this thing's going to be exploding higher. So, I really like Hims as well.

[00:16:25]>> The Demark wave count just opened up a new wave higher now that we've come lower as well. So, I I'm I'm Bloomberg.

[00:16:31]So, >> Um eToro we don't have, but uh we had the only Astro on recently.

[00:16:37]Lovely inverse head and shoulders low.

[00:16:39]I mean interestingly they had great earnings um in the same quarter that Robinhood and Coinbase didn't.

[00:16:45]>> Mhm.

[00:16:46]>> Uh they got 1.5 billion of cash. It's like a third of their entire market cap is cash they're sitting on. So, it's a wildly undervalued stock. So, I kind of like that.

[00:16:55]Um DXY not doing a lot. You know, I think we need to get through the China situation.

[00:17:02]Um get some outcome. It won't happen immediately, but over time we still think that the dollar goes lower or at least doesn't go anywhere important, so nobody has to worry about the dollar.

[00:17:14]>> Following SpaceX's required SEC IPO disclosure, which revealed a $1.29 billion Bitcoin treasury, Bitcoin abruptly recovered from its session lows. This indicates a significant change as the world's most advanced technological company validates Bitcoin as a core long-term treasury asset rather than a speculative play, suggesting a vast invisible ecosystem of private corporate buyers adopting Michael Saylor's treasury playbook. The SEC's historic clearance of Nasdaq's cash-settled Bitcoin index options, an institutional-grade derivative designed to route capital from risk-constrained pension funds and insurance firms straight into the growth of Bitcoin's price, coincides with this corporate support. Raoul Pal's agent economy is unintentionally being fueled by the Clarity Act's regulatory advancements, which are driving the sector toward compliant AI-driven active yield infrastructure. Michael Saylor, who famously used his own survival of MicroStrategy's 99.8% dot-com crash to explain that volatility is vitality, calls on investors to embrace his 7-year framework over emotional 7-month horizons amid short-term anxiety over Bitcoin trading at $74,300, 41% below its October all-time high.

[00:18:26]According to his theory, investors should use monetary theory to arbitrage the system by liquidating their metaphorical horse and buggy assets rather than selling the ultimate capital preservation asset because Bitcoin effectively absorbs the risk premiums that other assets cannot. This is because Bitcoin serves as a constant global lightning rod for financial and geopolitical anxiety. In the end, as the market navigates the crucial last weekend of May 2026, the stark structural difference between SpaceX's multi-decade treasury accumulation and billionaire Mark Cuban's short-term panic selling demonstrates that true wealth creation belongs to those who see brutal short-term liquidations as merely blinks within a massive multi-year macroeconomic trend.