How close is the deal that could end the US-Iran war?

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]I'm joined by David Des Roches, the former director of Arabian Peninsula policy at the US Department of Defense.

[00:00:05]He's joining us from Doha. Hi there, David. Good to speak to you. So, it feels like we have been here before, just on the precipice of a deal. It's so close, yet still so far. But this time, is there anything different to make you think that both sides are finally going to agree to something, even if that something is a memorandum of understanding for now?

[00:00:31]>> You know, I I'm I'm not sure. I mean, it is kind of like Groundhog Day.

[00:00:36]I think that the general framework of a deal has been there for a long time, which is the strait opens to neutral civilian shipping, and the reciprocal blockade on Iranian ports is lifted. I think that there's some problems on both the US and the Iranians' side. Let's start with the Iranians. We don't know who speaks for the Iranian government. You know, there was a somewhat productive dialogue in Islamabad. The vice president went there. I've made that flight many times. Let me tell you, that's not an easy flight. And for the vice president to go was pretty significant. But then, the day after, we see the Iranian news agency Tasnim saying, "Well, the foreign minister exceeded his brief. He he made proposals that the Iranian government doesn't agree with." That seems to reflect a revolutionary guard rest of the government break, and we're not quite sure who speaks for Iran, who can support Iran, who can implement a deal. On the US side, you've got fragments in President Trump's base. You have isolationists who say we should have never got there, let's get out tomorrow. But then, you also have people who say, "Look, we've started this. We've got to finish this.

[00:01:48]This is a problem. We can't leave Iran strengthened. And if we engage in negotiations over the nuclear policy, they'll drag it out for 2 years." So, there's still some fundamental problems that could derail a deal, but by and large, you know, nobody expected this to be an easy process.

[00:02:04]>> No, certainly not. I mean, when we look at the nuclear deal agreed to by the Obama administration, that took about 5 years. The first three, many say, was just this talking back and forth before a final deal. When it comes to some of those in the on the US side who maybe against the camp, when it comes to Israel and their input in this, do you think that Benjamin Netanyahu's government wants a deal right now? Many have reported that he just wants this war to restart and military strikes to resume on Iran.

[00:02:38]>> Well, I think he does see that he has a limited window of opportunity to deal with what is an existential threat, but let's not make too much of this. I mean, this is, you know, I routinely am on panels with Iranian people and they they basically say, "Oh, US policy is determined by Iran." These are American interests. The states in the Gulf who have been attacked by Iran, they stood aside from this war. They were attacked anyhow. And the the international shipping channels that Iran is laying mines in, those lay in Omani waters. Um America is a seafaring nation and our interests in freedom of navigation are huge. So, this these are American interests. They coincide for the moment with Israel, but when we get to the point of a of a political settlement, Israel will probably want a harsher settlement than the United States wants, but militarily right now, the the US and Israel are on the same sheet of music.

[00:03:30]>> And what about the US and its allies in the Gulf countries there? Are they uh playing the same sheet of music as as you say? Because the Gulf countries, I would imagine, are also desperate for a deal. They've also been the targets of Iranian uh strikes and have been heavily affected by all of this.

[00:03:51]>> Well, there's there's a plurality of opinion in the Gulf. So, where I am uh the government is seeking to mediate a solution, but there are some other countries that, you know, have I mean, look, the UAE took about twice as many missile strikes as Israel. That and there were no strikes launched, you know, from from the UAE. So, what they see is potential imperial overlord. And you know, Emirati islands are occupied by by Iran. So, they are very very concerned and and you know, there are probably some Gulf countries who want us to go more out, who want to see you know, a military enforced regime change. There are others who just want the problem to go away quickly and think they can manage it, but by and large Iran's attacks on the GCC states really damaged the idea that they're fraternal. It's going to take regime change and a generation for Iran to be seen as anything other than a potential existential threat here.

[00:04:51]>> Thank you so much for your analysis, David Roberts there live from Doha.